Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-024-08766-4

RESEARCH ARTICLE-ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Super-Capacitors in Electric

Vehicles Using Neural Networks
Syed Wajih-ul-Hassan Gillani1 · Kamal Shahid1 · Muhammad Majid Gulzar2 · Danish Arif1

Received: 29 March 2023 / Accepted: 18 January 2024 / Published online: 17 March 2024
© King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals 2024

Abstract
Batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) have a capacity decay issue as they age. As a result, the use of lithium-ion is becoming
more popular with super-capacitors (SCs), particularly in EVs. Over the decrease of carbon dioxide emissions, SC batteries
offer a substantial benefit. In EVs, a dependable mechanism that guarantees the SC batteries’ capacity for charging and
discharging is crucial. The main obstacle for EVs is the long life of ultra-capacitor battery’s because SCs have a deterioration
effect over multiple cycles. Therefore, accurate early prediction of these SC batteries is crucial. The data-based model is more
accurate than mechanism-based and model-based methods created for this purpose. The proposed data-driven models, such
as machine learning (ML), estimate the electrical parameters for the smooth functioning and working of SCs in addition to
considering their operating status. The main factor determining whether electric vehicles can be sustained is an increase in
battery cycle life. With a lowest root mean square error of 0.04614 and a mean squared error of 0.002 and an accuracy of
89.6%, ML-based models with various architectures and topologies have been created in this study to reliably estimate the
deterioration of SCs capacitance.

Keywords Neural network · Electrical vehicle · Super capacitor · Remaining useful life

1 Introduction
The emissions of gases from fuel-powered vehicles are one
of the main causes of air pollution. The World Health Organi-
zation (WHO) estimates that air pollution causes about seven
million fatalities annually [1]. Additionally, the usage of coal
and the burning of oil by businesses and vehicles that run on
fossil fuels results in 9% of all deaths worldwide [2]. Both
human and animal health are seriously at risk from these
toxic emissions. Nearly 89% of people reside in locations
that have been deemed to have poor air quality [3]. Research
The research presented in this paper builds upon the foundation laid
by the submitted thesis titled: ’Electric Vehicles Super-capacitor’s
Remaining Useful Life Using Neural Network’, 2022.
B Muhammad Majid Gulzar
muhammad.gulzar@kfupm.edu.sa
1 Institute of Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering,
University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
2 Department of Control & Instrumentation Engineering and
Interdisciplinary Research Center for Sustainable Energy
Systems (IRC-SES), King Fahd University of Petroleum &
Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
[4] estimates that 67 million cars are produced yearly, and
by 2030, 127 million vehicles are expected to be produced
globally [5]. By 2035, there could be two billion vehicles on
the road [6, 7].
Fossil fuel use must be reduced in order to lessen the
environmental challenge and CO2 emissions, and alternative
forms of transportation must be adopted in order to make
the environment more livable. The greater use of batteries in
EVs, which are a critical component of creating a green envi-
ronment and are likewise composed of chemical processes
and whose health monitoring is an important aspect of their
use in EVs, can significantly reduce the production of dan-
gerous emissions from fuel automobiles [8]. The efficiency
of the cell is reliant on the complex process of measuring
the charging and discharging status of batteries. Therefore,
a battery management system (BMS) is employed for the
most effective exploitation of batteries within its protection
range. Everything needs stability and equilibrium, thus BMS
likewise needs to balance the charging and discharging of
its cells. A maximum optimal control system and energy-
efficient management of EVs are provided by state of charge
(SOC) and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation [9].

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Everything has undergone a transformation in our advanced
technological age. Energy storage systems are widely used
in a wide range of applications. Thermal, electromagnetic,
kinetic, chemical, and electrochemical energy can all be
stored by these devices. Cells and batteries can be used
to store these energies. A super-capacitor is one of the
batteries used to store power. Due to their greater power
density and extended cycle lifetimes, super-capacitors are
now widely used in practically every application. Super-
capacitors are now more popular than lithium-ion batteries in
electric vehicles (EVs). This study’s development of a battery
management system (BMS) took ultra-capacitor batteries
into account and due to their higher power conversion effi-
ciency, EVs are dependable and perform better [10]. In EVs,
a dependable system that guarantees the super-capacitor bat-
teries’ capacity for charging and discharging is crucial. The
main obstacle for EVs is the long life of ultra-capacitor bat-
teries. The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions is another
important benefit of SC batteries [11].
EV batteries age poorly because of capacity loss. Mechanism-
based forecasts were put forth to lessen this effect, but they
were unsuccessful since they failed to take into account the
super-capacitor’s operating environment. SCs have a degra-
dation effect over several cycles [12]. Therefore, accurate
early prediction of these SC batteries is crucial. The data-
based model is more accurate than the mechanism- and
model-based techniques. The proposed data-driven mod-
els, such as machine learning (ML), estimate the electrical
parameters for the smooth functioning and working of SCs
in addition to taking into account their operating status. The
most important factor for EV sustainability is an increase
in battery cycle life [13]. With a low root mean square error
(RMSE) of 0.04614 and a mean square error (MSE) of 0.002,
ML-based models with various architectures and topologies
have been created in this paper to reliably estimate the degra-
dation of SCs capacitance. The accuracy of the outcomes is
89.6%.
An introduction about challenges faced in our surround-
ings and the inspiring factors are focused in Sect. 1, followed
by the required control unit of SCs with its types. Section 2
presents a discussion on the control unit of EVs, which is
mandatory for the protection of electronic components and
battery cells and also for monitoring and ensuring their long
life. This control unit is known as a battery management sys-
tem BMS. Its multiple parameters are also discussed in this
section. Section 3 talks about the state-of-the-art parameters
used by researchers for evaluating the battery performance
and smooth operation of EVs. Section 4 introduces the mod-
eling of developed neural network used in this paper. It shows
that there are many methods of ML and neural networks and
why this paper opted for a specific method for testing and
predicting RUL. Section 5 presents the results obtained from
various methods applied and also discusses the best suit-
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able model for higher prediction and achieving maximum
accuracy. Section 6 concludes the study and provides future
directions for this work.
Section 1 begins with an overview of the difficulties we
experience in our environment and the motivating elements.
This is followed by the necessary control unit of SCs and
their types. The control unit of EVs is discussed in Sect. 2. It
is essential for the protection of electronic parts and battery
cells as well as for monitoring and extending their lifespan.
The battery management system, or BMS, is the name of
this control device. This section also talks about its many
parameters. The most recent metrics employed by academics
to assess the battery performance and seamless functioning
of EVs are discussed in Sect. 3. The modeling of the con-
structed neural network employed in this paper is introduced
in Sect. 4. It demonstrates the diversity of ML and neural
network methods and explains why this paper chose a partic-
ular approach for analyzing and forecasting RUL. Section 5
summarizes the findings from the various methods used and
examines the most effective model for making more accurate
predictions. The study’s conclusion and its future directions
are provided in Sect. 6.
This work builds upon the enhancement of existing results
by employing deeper learning layers, resulting in a perfor-
mance improvement of 0.5%. The addition of more layers
might seem like a little modification but the improved per-
formance is a tangible and meaningful advancement. This
improvement not only demonstrates the practical signifi-
cance of the applied approach but also the potential for
optimizing the model’s capabilities with a seemingly minor
adjustment. A more feasible understanding gained through
implementing and fine-tuning these additional layers con-
tributes to the broader field of deep learning research,
exhibiting the iterative process of improvement in machine
learning models. Certainly, there are some below points that
highlight the contribution of this research.
1) Archetype Analysis: This paper has successfully repli-
cated the results of published work, ensuring the repro-
ducibility, reliability, and repeatability of measurements
under the same circumstances. However, a set of different
super-capacitors are used for this process while consid-
ering the same reference as used in the published paper,
i.e., discharge capacitance.
2) Affirmation of Results: A validation of initial findings is
also provided for future researchers that SC’s combina-
tion for their discharge capacitance remains the same.
3) Concrete Illustration of Practical Efficacy: The improved
performance demonstrates that it is practically feasible to
enhance the existing models without making any major
structural and architectural changes, thus providing a
valuable instance for others within the domain.
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340
4) Pioneering Incremental Evolution: This research notably
exemplifies that the iterative progression to the learning
models where even minor yet consistent enhancement
can accumulate to lead to significant improvement.
5) Broader Impact: Based on incremental improvement, the
broader impact should not be under-rated which implies
in areas of achieving higher efficiency, cost-effectiveness,
and real-time deployment.
2 Background
2.1 Evolution of Super-capacitor Battery
SCs have a higher capacitance and a high-power density. It is
also referred to as a high-power density storage device, and it
offers long cycle lifetimes in addition to quick charging and
discharging rates. German physicist Hermann introduced the
idea of SCs for the first time in 1853 [14]. Detail expla-
nations of electric double-layer capacitor (EDLC), which
general electric (GE) described as a redox reaction produced
compound in 1957, are provided further in this section [15].
This was the fuel cell, which is the device used to transform
chemical energy into electrical energy. When electricity is
generated, the electrode material and its conductivity and
porosity qualities play a crucial role in producing high capac-
itance from having a broad area of these electrodes [16].
Utilizing carbon electrodes assures low cost, excellent elec-
trical conductivity, and high mass density by utilizing the
properties of the material, metal oxides, and conductive poly-
mers [17]. The electrolyte is impacted by pore diameters
and distribution, among other pore-related characteristics.
According to research done by Largeot, capacitance peaks
when the electrode’s pore size matches the ion’s electrolytic
size. The electrolyte must be stable electrochemically, have
a high ion concentration, and have low viscosity, volatility,
and resistivity [18]. Due to the advantages and disadvantages
of each, an electrolyte is further separated into aqueous and
organic electrolytes. As opposed to organic, which has low
resistance and high ionic concentration, aqueous media have
high capacitance and power [19]. The aqueous electrolyte
has a voltage frame of 1.2V, while the organic electrolyte has
a frame of 3.5V [20]. In addition to batteries and SCs, the
authors in [21] suggest a hybrid energy storage method that
takes into account both the SOC of energy storage and the
power fluctuation of the PV power system.
2.2 Types of Super-capacitor
Regarding the ability to store a charge, there are primarily two
types of super-capacitors. The third category is a synthesis
of the first two. They include the following types:
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1) Electric double-layer capacitor (EDLC): When an exter-
nal voltage is applied at the electrolyte and electrode,
which form the interface between the two layers of
charges, an electric double-layer capacitor (EDLC) stores
energy by introducing charges. These charges are settled
through an electrostatic phenomenon, which produces
rapid charging and discharging rates [9].
2) Pseudocapacitor: The other sort of SC stores energy
using faradic processes. The pseudocapacitive materials
(nanomaterials) ruthenium oxide (RuO2) and manganese
oxide (MnO2) have capacitance that is equivalent to the
theoretical value. Although it also has a higher energy
density, this one’s power density and cycle life are
reduced as a result of chemical processes [22].
3) Hybrid Capacitors: The third type of super-capacitor,
known as a hybrid capacitor, is created when both of
the capacitor’s materials are combined. Compared to the
other two categories, this storage device is more powerful
[9].
2.3 Battery Management System
A dependable SC monitoring system is crucial, especially
when the power quality and conditions are directly impacted.
This system also referred to as a battery management sys-
tem, is in charge of error prediction and power system failure
detection (BMS). Low-voltage SC cells have a significant dis-
advantage since they are coupled either in series or parallel
in large storage units [23]. Additionally, the voltage and cur-
rent ratings of this design can be raised. Cells can experience
an increase in internal temperature as a result of unbalanced
charging. Thus, a battery’s cell might age due to temperature
rise and an uneven distribution of charging and discharging.
BMS is the best choice with a monitored and improved solu-
tion to minimize or reduce this aging problem [24].
The following factors are typically needed to calculate
the supercapacitor’s life efficiency, and maximum utiliza-
tion [13]: (1) state of charge (SOC), (2) remaining useful
life (RUL), (3) state of health (SOH), (4) state of energy
(SOE), and (5) state of power (SOP). Not only is accurate
estimation of remaining useful life crucial for maintenance
scheduling, but it is also crucial for super-capacitor replace-
ment in advance. Convolution neural networks (CNN) were
used to build the model-based method in order to automati-
cally recognize features with little inputs [25] and to quickly
and accurately forecast how long a super-capacitor will be
usable. This study has focused on the uncertainties that affect
the usage and production of power, even though a determin-
istic framework was expected for the best battery utilization
efficiency [26]. Poor efficiency and excessive operational
costs result from ignoring the ambiguity and complexity of
data. The battery management system made sure that variable
conservatism, complete robustness, and traditional determin-
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istic optimization approaches were used to handle the energy
of the battery [27]. For the estimation of RUL having an
activation function, ReLU [28], a fully connected architec-
ture with four layers was developed (ANN). The four-layer
architecture has an input of five features that must be manu-
ally identified which can be used as feature-based ANN [29].
Three residual blocks with two fully connected layers that
were employed as a temporal convolution network (TCN)
for RUL prediction have been proposed [30]. For calculat-
ing RUL, support vector regression (SVR) uses a fourfold
cross-validation approach. The capacitance is used in this
manner after every 50 cycles up to 500 cycles [31]. Using a
power function and an input of capacitance up to the 657th
cycle, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) forecasted the future
capacitance curve with respect to the RUL [32].
C = aηb (1)
where C is the capacitance at cycle η with a and b fitting
coefficients.
[32] and [31] solely employ the capacitance aging fea-
ture. This performs the least well. The higher prediction was
possible because of five aging features. In order to anticipate
RUL, CNN offers the automatic extraction of features over
five consecutive cycles [29]. The dataset is the same for ANN
and CNN, and the first way involves using the Adam opti-
mizer to map the intricate link between input and output. In
contrast, CNN can handle feature extraction on charge and
discharge data as well as mapping of the aging cycle, which
has a good performance by minimizing the difficulties of
nonlinear mapping [33].
3 Literature Review
The interior structure of the battery cells affects how well the
RUL of SC is predicted. The influencing factors that deter-
mine its lifespan include the rate of charge and discharge of
cells with constant current and discharge capacitance [34].
When charged with various voltages, the battery cell exhibits
fluctuation in capacitance. SCs’ health is directly impacted
by this. Based on the first degradation of the data, battery
makers can determine the life of the cells. Due to nonlin-
ear degradation and the aforementioned factors, remaining
useful life assessment is difficult [35]. Figure 1 illustrates
various approaches to tracking battery health, which is a key
factor in determining RUL.
For the purpose of comparing the actual outcomes with
the predicted results using ANN, the study is conducted on
existing statistical models. The constant load discharge cur-
rent was used by the authors in [36]. When they used BPN
to simulate the data based on discharge pulse while training
the model, they discovered a good approximation. The SC’s
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power (P), current (I), and energy density (E) performance
predictions were made [37]. Three sets—the training set, the
validation set, and the testing set—are used for the dataset’s
training. The validation set aids in locating data limits that
are unnecessary and would cause a problem if they were
included. The training data is assessed using the test set. The
data is then taught and evaluated repeatedly because an ANN
is a stochastic method for estimating parameters. Because of
internal chemical reactions taking place in the battery, the
battery’s life cycle is reliant on the deterioration of the cell’s
capacity [35].
The authors in [38] employed an ANN with 20 nodes to
forecast the life cycle output node using a discharge curve for
the first 100 cycles alone. A recurrent neural network (RNN)
using a hybrid genetic method and long short-term memory
was applied [39]. Finding regionally ideal points to weed out
incorrect data is possible with the use of the genetic method.
The root mean square error used to train the model ranged
from 0.016 to 0.021. Chen has employed feedforward neural
networks (FFNN) and extended Kalman filtering (EKF) to
estimate the SOC of EVs [22]. To reduce the noise in the
estimation of SOC, another neural network technique, called
a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network,
is employed in conjunction with an unscented Kalman filter
[40]. An extreme learning machine (ELM) has been used
to evaluate the state of power (SOP) [41]. For the accurate
prediction of SOC, regression based on the Gaussian pro-
cess (GPR) can come close to nonlinearity approaches [41].
The state of health (SOH) of batteries is monitored using a
temporal convolution network (TCN) [34]. Multiple mod-
els’ prediction errors were observed in terms of RMSE and
MAE for the aging curve’s current state. In this case, several
voltages and variable temperature parameters were employed
[35].
Severson [40] used ML techniques based on linear regres-
sion to forecast lithium-ion battery life cycles for the first
100 cycles, with a correlation of 0.92 and an error reduc-
tion of 9.1%. Further research is being done to show that
for linear regression (LR) models, the quality of prediction
is not only dependent on the correlation component because
dealing with nonlinearity causes the correlation coefficient
to decrease but does not necessarily result in less accurate
prediction [35]. However, many advances have been made to
other parameters of BMS, but RUL for SC has much cush-
ion to cater. In this work, RUL prediction using data-driven
models has been selected as this will ensure the timely action
required before reaching an alarming situation. The coeffi-
cient of variation (Cv ), which is a different measure from the
correlation coefficient for prediction quality, is introduced
[42]. This serves as the standard deviation to mean ratio for
the distribution of life spans. It has been determined that the
end cycles of SC batteries have a Cv of 0.72 while the end
cycles of lithium-ion batteries have a Cv of 0.47. It is shown
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340
Fig. 1 RUL-based SoH Methods [16]
that by utilizing LR, the Li-ion battery has fewer feature
requirements than the prediction of SC. As a result, higher
LR prediction accuracy at lower Cv is not feasible [9].
Although other BMS parameters have shown significant
advancements, RUL for SC requires a significant cushion
to accommodate. In this study, RUL prediction utilizing
data-driven models has been chosen since it will guarantee
the prompt response necessary before an alarming situation
arises.
4 System Modeling and Methodology
Physical super-capacitor battery manufacture and testing is
a time-consuming operational process for configuring the
hardware. Because of the participation of the hardware sys-
tem, it also raises the cost. The database method has been
employed to reduce this hardware cost with a short lead
time of the developing phase, which comprises the processes
of prototyping and modeling [43]. The advantages of this
simulation-based SC testing include performance evaluation
based on numerous factors, cost-effectiveness, efficient test-
ing, and testing that is both trustworthy and accurate.
In order to achieve the highest accuracy and anticipate
the remaining usable life RUL of the SC battery, a vari-
ety of machine learning (ML) techniques have been used
in this section. The model can be constructed using the main
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parameters listed below: Initial voltages for charging and dis-
charging cycles, end voltages for charging and discharging
cycles, current rating for charging and discharging cycles,
charge capacitance, discharge capacitance, nominal charg-
ing and discharging capacity, time interval, and energy are
just a few of the factors that need to be considered.
The parameters with the highest correlation coefficients
are used to choose the features. When combined, each param-
eter’s unique properties create a complicated system. The
different combinations of the input and output parameters
affect how they behave. This section provides a detailed
explanation of the study and production of the enormous
dataset on which this database model is built.
4.1 Data Collection and Cleaning
Data from 113 super-capacitor batteries was gathered for this
study from Eaton [44]. This open-source information was
initially in raw form; however, it was later processed, cleaned,
and made usable. 10,000 charging and discharge cycles at
a high temperature of 28 ◦ C are tested and recorded. The
scoring methodology standardizes the data. For recording
the cycle life, various charging amperes are utilized While
a steady rate of current is employed for discharging. As it
is already mentioned, this data was collected data by Jinjin
Li [44], which is open-source and can be accessed. This is
to clarify that the author processed and utilized the dataset
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Table 1 Charging strategy of batch 2 SCs 4.2.4 Batch 4

Steps Voltage (V) Current (mA)
With the same requirements as batch 3 SCs, the remaining
1 0 20 26.5% are included in batch 4.
. An overview of the distribution of all of these batches is
. shown in Fig. 2 for visualization is 5 mA less in Fig. 2.
1
2 1 15 4.3 Dataset Selection
.
. The data is divided into four batches because there is a lot of
1.85 data available and it is not possible to process it all at once.
3 1.85 10 It took about 8 h to process the Excel files into the Python
. IDE for visualization and other operations using a Lenovo
. 20VE machine with an 11th Generation Intel®Core™i7 and
2.36 16,384 MB RAM. Converting these files to binary data for
4 2.37 5 quicker processing is another goal of this pre-processing. The
. primary objective when the data is prepared is to validate the
.
data. For the purpose of evaluating the data, a criterion based
2.7
on the capacitance C, the total number of capacitors TC, and
the average cycle AC is being developed. For data-driven
models, it is crucial to take into account both (a) a sizable
number of datasets and (b) an equitable distribution among
to suit our specific research requirements. In section VII, the them.
author acknowledged the dataset’s origin as a demonstration The nominal capacitance in Fig. 3a has been set to 91%
of transparency and academic integrity. of the SC’s cycle life (0.91 F), which includes 87 out of 113
SCs with an average cycle of 2689 out of 10,000. The total
4.2 Dataset Classification number of SCs and their average cycle distribution are shown
in Fig. 3l with a drop of 0.1% up to capacitance 89.9% (0.899
Since that each super-capacitor is discharged for 10,000 F). This demonstrates that if the benchmark is set extremely
cycles, 113 SCs have 1,130,000 cycles total. There are four high, it will only accommodate a small number of the 113 SCs
batches of these 113 SCs. These specifics are provided below: because they do not even survive for 10,000 cycles. Bench-
mark, which displays the distribution up to 10,000 cycles, is
4.2.1 Batch 1 inversely related to the number of valid SCs. Figure 3 shows
that if the benchmark is very low, the number of SCs increases
This batch 1 is made up of 28 SCs, or 25% of the total, which to the point where they surpass the distribution of 10,000 and
have undergone charging and discharging cycles at a constant valid SCs are disregarded. Both of these factors should not
current of 20 mA. be used to choose the capacitance value at which the most
SC can be chosen.
Figure 3g and h depicts the maximum number of SC
4.2.2 Batch 2 datasets that could have been used for this study based on
the aforementioned criteria; however, only Fig. 3h has been
The second batch of the dataset, which consists of 25 SCs, chosen due to the two rules listed below:
contains 22% of the total SCs. This batch tests the cycle life
for various voltage and current values. Various tactics have • Maximum number of valid SCs that are uniformly dis-
primarily been used for charging states. There are four steps tributed (T C = 93)
in this process, and they are dependent on the voltage ranges • Average cycle life maximum number (AC = 3824)
listed in Table 1. The current decreases by 5mA for each
range of voltage that is increased. Figure 4 depicts the chosen SCs.

4.2.3 Batch 3 5 Results and Discussion

30 SCs, or 26.5% of all SCs, are part of batch 3. They use a The dataset is the only common point of reference between
continuous 20 mA current to charge and discharge. this study and the related work but the readily available data

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Fig. 2 Block diagram of SCs
distribution in batches
Fig. 3 Selection criteria based on cycles as a function of current [44]
Fig. 4 Shortlisted super-capacitors [44]
is in raw form. After critically analyzing the given param-
eters in the dataset, we have shortlisted ours. For instance,
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the published paper has its own method of generating dis-
charge capacitance but we have developed this particular
parameter from the data based on super-capacitor’s charge
and discharge capacity of current (mAh). This research has
utilized current and voltage ratings over time. Each cycle has
charged and discharged, but the maximum of all is finalized
based on the highest iteration among their period. This study
contributes to the incremental accuracy for the prediction of
remaining useful life for the electric vehicle’s life. The addi-
tion of deep learning layers has made the result better with
minor adjustments to the selection of data. Before having
the holistic picture for all SCs, every SC’s capacitance decay
cycle is observed and it has been observed that the validation
loss with more trainable parameters and epochs generates
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Fig. 5 Capacitance function of cycle number till 10,000 cycles
more precise MSE loss. The limitation to increasing the effi-
ciency for prediction lies in the data generation with more
cycles and for a long period of time. This study also con-
firms that the selection of 657 cycles is the limitation of this
dataset for these super-capacitors as the decay cycle stops
changing by increasing the discharge cycles to 10,000. Also,
developed different models of deep learning with varying
layers, nodes, optimizer functions, and running iterations.
There are two inputs, i.e., voltage discharge with the max-
imum decaying time. Some super-capacitors have few such
cycles that show the same entries in terms of discharging
capabilities. This has been observed by setting the threshold
in the visualization generation of capacitance decay. Those
few SCs show a trend for decaying from 0.98F to 0.84F.
This discharge capacitance is the reference output of our
model. The correlation is checked among these three selected
parameters, through which time and capacitance represent
the highest coefficient of correlation which is 0.88. There
are 87 finalized SCs which is being tested for 657 cycles,
generating duplicate results. Duplication results have been
removed to eradicate the bias of the model’s learning process,
which could lead to overfitting and reduced generalization.
The purpose of removing the same entries is to reduce unnec-
essary computational resources, noise, and inaccuracy during
training and testing. The activation function is Rectified Lin-
ear Unit (RELU). "Adam" is being used as the optimizer.
Seven hidden deep learning layers have been implemented
with 1,000 nodes each. The total trainable parameters in this
topology are 683,016 with epochs of 500.
In order to anticipate the remaining useful life of the SCs
and to assess the trend in the 113 SCs that have been charged
and discharged using various charging methodologies as well
as constant charging, models like linear regression are uti-
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Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340
lized. This procedure is carried out to record data and forecast
how SC behavior would change under various operating cir-
cumstances. It has been shown that SCs have a tendency to
degrade more quickly during the initial cycles of discharge,
but as the number of cycles increases, the rate of degradation
stabilizes at 90.3% of the nominal capacitance (0.903F), with
little variation. The SCs with shorter life cycles and shorter
lifespans were clearly ignored in our examination. SCs with
longer life cycles are also rendered useless because of their
propensity for growth and inability to live within the neces-
sary time constraints.
The process of applying models to our final dataset to
determine the remaining usable life of ultra-capacitor batter-
ies and their trends follows the identification of valid SCs.
Different decay curves are obtained by taking shifting current
and voltage circumstances into consideration. In this investi-
gation, 30 SCs are eliminated because they either degrade too
quickly or cannot reach the nominal capacitance of 0.903 F.
A total of 83 SCs are chosen collectively from four separate
batches. On these 83 SCs, testing and training are conducted
at random.
This study is also interested in other artificial neural
network techniques. The created BMS model has been com-
bined with error loss and prediction accuracy. This illustrates
the overall modeling performance of 83 SCs chosen at ran-
dom, which results in a complicated system with more layers
and neurons for feature extraction.
According to Fig. 5, 83 SCs were discharged for 830,000
cycles at a constant current of 20 mA for the first 10,000
cycles. Additionally, Figs. 7 and 8 depict degrading through-
out the course of the last 300 cycles, respectively. Discharge
capacitance is illustrated as a function of cycle numbers, elab-
orating on the fact that SCs tend to degrade more quickly
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340
Fig. 6 Neural network topology
Fig. 7 Capacitance decaying in the early cycles from 0 to 300
in the early cycles and that this degeneration gradually
decreases with an increase in cycle numbers, making SC life
more durable for extended use and utilization.
Because after the first 657 cycles, the capacitance remains
constant until 10, 000 cycles, as illustrated in Fig. 5, the fea-
tures of discharge capacitance (cap), voltage (V), and time
(t) have been chosen for this work. Although there are 113
SCs with a total discharge capacitance that are available, this
work only works with 83 of them, making the total data for
the work 54,531 entries (see Table 2).
7335
The highest correlation is 0.88 between discharge time
and capacitance. All the diagonal entries are 1 because it
is the correlation between the same features (see Table 3).
Another function of Python used for removing the duplicate
entries in the data to avoid similarity among the dataset is
the “drop duplicates()” function and the data was left with
27,668 entries and now again correlation is evaluated.
For the implementation of a neural network, data needs
to be standardized to avoid overfitting or under-fitting of the
data. First scalar transformation is performed on both input
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7336 Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340

Fig. 8 Capacitance decaying in the last 300 cycles

Table 2 Parametric feature with discharge capacitance

Super-capacitors Life cycles Discharge capacity (f) Discharge voltage (V) Discharge time (t)

1 1 cap1 V1 t1
2 cap2 V2 t2
3 cap3 V3 t3
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
657 cap657 V657 t657
2 1 cap1 V1 t1
2 cap2 V2 t2
3 cap3 V3 t3
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
657 cap657 V657 t657
. . . . .
. . . . .
83 1 cap1 V1 t1
2 cap2 V2 t2
3 cap3 V3 t3
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
657 cap657 V657 t657

123
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340 7337

Table 3 Correlation coefficients as voltage decreases and maximum discharge time with the
V oltage D T ime D Capacitance output y1 as capacitance.
The discharge time decreases from 20 to 500 cycles as the
V oltage D 1.000000 0.512421 0.536526 cycle number rises. Figure 9 displays that cycle 20 discharges
T ime D 0.512421 1.000000 0.883358 in 91.2 s, cycle 100 in 86.5 s, cycle 200 in 84.8 s, and cycle
Capacitance 0.536526 0.883358 1.000000 500 in 82.7 s.
With the features of voltage reduction, maximum dis-
charge time, and capacitance held constant, a model with
and output and then reverse transformation is done. The ini- three hidden layers and a maximum of 1000 epochs is built,
tial model has been performed with three hidden layers on yielding RMSE and MSE of 0.10581 and 0.011, respectively,
the two-dimensional input (voltage and time) with the activa- whereas the five-layer DNN model on 1000 epochs produced
tion function of Rectified Linear Unit (RELU). The network RMSE and MSE values of 0.07616 and 0.00580, respec-
framework of this model is given below which has three tively. Six-layer model with a 500-epoch RMSE and MSE =
hidden layers with 50, 75, and 100 neurons respectively, as 0.00400. Another advantage of ANN models is that, in con-
shown in Fig. 6. Here, x1 and x2 are the inputs of a dataset

Fig. 9 Relationship between

voltage and time

Fig. 10 7-Hidden Layer Model with 1000 Nodes

123
7338
Fig. 11 MSE with increased Layers
trast to LR models, they are less dependent on the dataset’s
distribution and on the connection between variables and fea-
tures. Large datasets can also help to minimize testing errors.
The model has been trained by increasing the topology and
the number of nodes in the hidden layers. With an efficiency
of 89.6%, the seven-layer model mentioned in Fig. 10 has
produced the best results (lowest MSE).
Several completely linked dense layers in neural networks
have been investigated in order to create higher-level and
more precise prediction models based on voltage, time, and
capacitance. Changes to the hyperparameters, such as capac-
ity, energy, and power, can alter the BMS in this work. Future
researchers will be able to improve the model by adding more
layers and combining different factors for better and more
desirable iterations thanks to this.
Given that Fig. 10 depicts a neural network design with
seven hidden layers, Fig. 11 displays the lowest MSE, which
is 0.002, in comparison. The total trainable parameters for
the three, five, six, and seven hidden layers are 11,676,
169,528, 683,016, and 6,010,001 correspondingly, making
up 0.2%, 3%, 10%, and 87% of the total trainable param-
eters of 6,874,221 as shown in Fig. 12. Figure 13 illustrates
the model’s testing for determining discharge capacitance
over a period of six arbitrary cycles. At the sixth itera-
tion, the predicted and observed capacitance were extremely
similar. Table 4 illustrates the prediction accuracy of the
super-capacitor’s cycle life.
6 Conclusion and Future Work
In comparison with linear regression (LR), principal compo-
nent analysis (PCA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and
the model used in this study, which has 1000 nodes and uses
a seven-hidden layer technique. A large number of exist-
123
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340
Fig. 12 Pie chart of trainable parameters for three (blue), five (orange),
six (gray), and seven (yellow) hidden layers
Fig. 13 Observed and predicted discharge capacitance
ing researchers have applied ANN to predict the SOC of SC
based on data received from the batteries of electric vehicles,
this paper reviews those models by contributing to the perfor-
mance enhancement for predicting the remaining useful life
of electric vehicle’s battery, i.e., SC. The life of SC has shown
longer usability than that of ordinary batteries. There are 113
SCs that have different charging and discharging stages. Each
super-capacitor is discharged for a total of 1,130,000 cycles
but in this study, we evaluated it up to 870,000 cycles. The
dataset is distributed evenly while considering capacitance
C, the total number of capacitors TC, and average cycles
AC. This segregation is being done to evaluate the behav-
ior and trends in SCs. So, the selected SC has 93 TC and
3824 AC. Discharging trends have kept the keen interest in
this research which shows that they tend to decay faster in
their early cycles. Discharging capacitance is also practically
calculated by a mathematical formula that requires the ini-
tial and final voltages with respect to the time at which the
rate of discharge is maximum. It has been devised that by
increasing the number of cycles of any particular SC in the
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering (2024) 49:7327–7340
Table 4 Predicting efficiency of cycle Life
Methods Model accuracy (%)
LR [36] 70.5
PCA [36] 83.2
ANN [36] 89.1
Seven-hidden layer model 89.6
discharging state, the time of its discharge decreases. These
contributions advance the ability to forecast and optimize
the life cycle expectancy of SC by providing value to sus-
tainable energy storage solutions. The utilization of neural
models in this context not only enhances the understanding
of SC behavior but also establishes a framework for future
studies in predictive analytics for the energy sector. After
implementation of scalar transformation on the dataset with
optimizer "Adam", 89.6% efficiency is attained because of
the capacity to effectively extract features based on voltage,
discharge time, and capacitance by implementing the addi-
tional layers with a more complex topology which also gives
the minimum MSE for 83 SCs with the first 657th cycles
making it a total of 54,531.
The future focus includes the development of such meth-
ods that are used for the continuous monitoring of SC health
over an extended period of time, enabling timely maintenance
interventions based on the model’s prediction. It would take
a little more period of time for the collection of life cycle
data which has the highest precision. Hence, there exists the
potential for further enhancement, suggesting opportunities
for refinement and expansion with the utilization of different
parameters.
Acknowledgements The authors are grateful for the support in dataset
generation provided by Jinjin Li [44]. The dataset used in this paper can
be accessed freely from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mtener.2020.100537.
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