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Chapter7 - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Chapter7 - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Chapter7 - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Analysis
30 March 2015 2
Introduction
Capital Budgeting is the process of determining which
real investment projects should be accepted and
given an allocation of funds from the firm.
To evaluate capital budgeting processes, their
consistency with the goal of shareholder wealth
maximization is of utmost importance.
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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Techniques
The main DCF techniques for capital budgeting
include: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of
Return (IRR), and Profitability Index (PI)
Each requires estimates of expected cash flows (and
their timing) for the project.
Including cash outflows (costs) and inflows (revenues or
savings) – normally tax effects are also considered.
Each requires an estimate of the project’s risk so that
an appropriate discount rate (opportunity cost of
capital) can be determined.
The discussion of risk will be deferred until later. For
now, we will assume we know the relevant opportunity
cost of capital or discount rate.
Sometimes the above data is difficult to obtain –
this is the main weakness of all DCF techniques.
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Net Present Value (NPV)
Method: NPV = PVinflows – PVoutflows
If NPV ≥ 0, then accept the project;
otherwise reject the project.
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Net Present Value (NPV)
The NPV of a series of cash flows is the PV of cash
inflows minus the PV of the cash outflows:
n n
cash inflow t cash outflowt
NPV
t 0 1 r t
t 0 1 r t
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Net Present Value
(NPV)
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Proposed Project Data
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NPV Solution
10,000 7,000
+ - 40,000
(1.13)4 (1.13)5
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NPV Solution
NPV = - 40,000 + 10,000(1.13−1 ) +
12,000(1.13−2 ) + 15,000(1.13−3 ) +
10,000(1.13−4 ) + 7,000(1.13−5 )
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Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
IRR is the interest rate that equates the PV of
cash inflows with the PV of the cash outflows:
n n
cash inflowt cash outflowt
t 0 1 IRR
t
t 0 1 IRR t
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Independent Project
For this project, assume that it is independent of any other
potential projects that Basket Wonders may undertake.
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Internal Rate of Return
(IRR)
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IRR Solution
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IRR Solution (Try 10%)
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IRR Solution (Try 15%)
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IRR Solution (Interpolate)
.10 41,444
X 1,444
.05 IRR 40,000 4,603
.15 36,841
X 1,444
=
.05 4,603
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IRR Solution (Interpolate)
.10 41,444
X 1,444
.05 IRR 40,000 4,603
.15 36,841
X 1,444
=
.05 4,603
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IRR Solution (Interpolate)
.10 41,444
.05 X IRR 40,000 1,444 4,603
.15 36,841
X = (1,444)(0.05) X = .0157
4,603
IRR = .10 + .0157 = .1157 or 11.57%
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IRR Acceptance Criterion
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Profitability Index (PI)
Method: PVCash flows after the initial investment
PI
Initial Investment
Note: PI should always be expressed as a
positive number.
If PI ≥ 1, then accept the real investment
project; otherwise, reject it.
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Profitability Index (PI)
<< OR >>
Method #2:
PI = 1 + [ NPV / ICO ]
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PI Acceptance Criterion
PI = $38,572 / $40,000
= .9643 (Method #1)