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9
RESEARCH III
QUARTER 3
Week 2.1

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Toolkit

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Region IX, Zamboanga Peninsula
Zamboanga City

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Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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SUBJECT & Grade 9

QUARTER 3 WEEK 2 DATE _
GRADE/LEVEL RESEARCH III DD/MM/YYYY

TOPIC Hypothesis Testing

1. Utilizes appropriate statistical tools in analyzing data.
LEARNING (SSP-RS9-AID-III-q-t-7)
COMPETENCIES 2. Interprets data/ statistical results. (SSP-RS9-AID-III-u-v-8)
3. Test hypothesis (SSP-RS9-AID-III-v-w-9)
IMPORTANT: Do not write anything on this material. Write your answer on a
separate sheet of paper and don not forget to answer all SAQs.

UNDERSTAND
Hypothesis testing
You have learned from the previous lesson that statistics is tool to help
you collect, organize, analyze and interpret data. Furthermore, you are
already familiar with null and alternative hypothesis and how to identify
them. At this point, let’s continue to learn more about hypothesis testing
– the traditional method.

In hypothesis testing, there are many possibilities to why the data behaves a certain
way. In order for the researchers to arrive at the most probable cause, interpretation
and draw conclusion, one must make a decision. This decision is made statistically and
not made on feelings or intuition. To do this, the researcher must use the most statistical
tests (techniques or tools) and level of significance to ensure that the difference is
significant and in all likelihood not due to chance.

What is a statistical test?

A statistical test uses the data obtained from a sample to make a decision about
whether the null hypothesis should be rejected.
The numerical value obtained from a statistical test is called the test value.

The mean of the data from the sample is computed and compared to the
population mean in this type of statistical test. On the basis of the value
obtained from the statistical test, a decision is made to reject or not reject
the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is rejected if the difference is
significant. The null hypothesis is not rejected if it is not.

What are the four possible outcomes in hypothesis-testing?

There are four possible outcomes in a hypothesis-testing situation. The null
hypothesis may or may not be true in reality, and a decision is made to reject or not
reject it based on data from a sample. The four possible outcomes are depicted in the
diagram below. It's worth noting that there are two possibilities for making a correct
decision and two possibilities for making an incorrect decision.

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Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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H0 True H0 False
Reject Error Correct
H0 Type I Decision

Do not Correct Error

reject H0 Decision Type II

Figure 1 Possible Outcomes of a Hypothesis Test

What is a Type I Error?

A type I error occurs if you rejected the null hypothesis when it is true.

What is a Type II Error?

A type II error occurs if you do not reject the null hypothesis when it is false.

SITUATION A
A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether a new medication will have
any undesirable side effects. The researcher particularly concerned with the pulse rate
of the patients who take the medicine. Will the pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain
the same after a patient takes the medication?

The four possible ourtcomes are:

If a null hypothesis is true and it is rejected, then a type I error is made. In this
situation, the medication might not significantly change the pulse rate of all the
users in the population; but it might change the rate, by chance, of the subjects
in the sample. In this case, the researcher will reject the null hypothesis when it
is true, thus committing a type I error.
When the researcher did not reject the null hypothesis when it its true, it is a
correct decision. The medication did not significantly increase or decrease the
pulse rate of both the users in the sample and the population.
On the other hand, the medication might not change the pulse rate of the
subjects in the sample, but when it is given to the general population, it might
cause a significant increase or decrease in the pulse rate of the uses. The
researcher on the basis of the data obtained from the sample, will not reject the
null hypothesis, thus committing a type II error.
The medication has significantly increase or decrease the pulse rate of both the
users in the sample and the population. The researcher then rejects the null
hypothesis and makes a correct decision.

The decision of the researcher does not prove that the medication did or
did not increase/decrease the pulse rate of the subjects. The decision is
based on the evidence presented (data). Nothing is proved absolutely. The
only way to prove anything statistically is to use the entire population,
which, in most cases, is not possible. The decision, then, is made on the
basis of probabilities. That is, when there is a large difference between the
mean obtained from the sample and the hypothesized mean, the hypothesis
is probabily not true. The question is, how large a difference is necessary to
reject the null hypothesis? Here is where the level of significance is used.

Prepared by: RIZZA EARL VEVERLY T. ANGELES, SST-III

Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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SAQ-1: What is meant by a type I error? A type II error?

Let’s Practice 1! (Write your answer on your answer sheet.)

Direction: Read each situation carefully. Determine the four possible outcomes for
hypothesis-testing for the given situation.
1. SITUATION B. A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an automobile
battery. If the mean lifetime of the automobile battery without the additive is 36
months.
2. SITUATION C. A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a special type
of insulation in houses. If the average of the monthly bill is $78.

How large a difference is necessary to reject the null hypothesis? Here

is where the level of significance is used.

What is level of significance?

 It is the maximum probability of committing a type I error. Denoted by α (Greek

letter alpha). That is P (type I error) = α.
 The probability of a type II error is symbolized by β, the Greek letter beta. That
is, P (type II error) = β. Note that in most hypothesiss-testing situations, β cannot
be easily computed; However, α and β are related in that decreasing one
increases the other.

What are the arbitrary levels of significance?

Stastistician generally agree on using three arbitrary significance levels: the 0.10,
0.05, and 0.01 levels. That is, if the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability of
committing a type I error will be 10%, 5% or 1%, depending on which elvel of
significance is used.
 When α = 0.10, there is a 10% chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis;
 When α = 0.05, there is a 5% chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis; and
 When α = 0.01, there is a 1% chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis.

In hypothesis-testing situation, the researcher decides what level of

significance to use. It does not have to be the 0.10, 0.05, or 0.01 level. It
can be any level, depending on the seriousness of the type I error.

After a significance level is chosen, the critical value is selected from a

table for the appropriate test.

What is a critical value?

 The critical value separates the critical region from the noncritical region. The
symbol for critical value is C.V.
 The critical or rejection region is the range of values of the test value that
indicates that there is a significant difference and that the null hypothesis should
be rejected.

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Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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 The noncritical or nonrejection region is the range of values of the test value
that indicates that the difference was probably due to chance and that the null
hypothesis should not be rejected.

What is a one-tailed test?

 It indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in
the critical region on onde side of the mean.
 A one-tailed test is either right-tailed test or left-tailed test,depending on the
direction of the inequality of the alternative hypothesis.
SITUATION B
A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an automobile battery. If the mean
lifetime of the automobile battery without the additive is 36 months.
Hypotheses are: H0: μ = 36 and H1: μ > 36
(this is a right-tailed test, since the inequality sign is >, the null hypothesis will be rejected
only when the sample mean is significantly greater than 36. Thus, the critical value must be
on the right side of the mean.)

Noncritical or
nonrejection region Critical or
Rejection region

Figure 2 A right-tailed test with the critical value on the right side of the normal distribution curve.

SITUATION C
A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a special type of insulation in houses.
If the average of the monthly bill is $78, the hypotheses about the heating costs with the use
of insulation are H0: μ = $78 and H1: μ < $78
(this is a left-tailed test, since the inequality sign is <, the null hypothesis will be rejected
only when the sample mean is significantly less than $78. Thus, the critical value must be on
the left side of the mean.)

Noncritical or
Critical or nonrejection region
Rejection region

Figure 3 A left-tailed test with the critical value on the left side of the normal distribution curve.

What is a two-tailed test?

 In a two-tailed test, the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value
is in either of the two critical regions.
 When a researcher conducts a two-tailed test, the null hypothesis can be
rejected when there is a significant difference in either direction, above or below
the mean.

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Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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 For a two-tailed test, then, the critical region must be split into two equal parts.
If the α = 0.01, then one-half of the area, or 0.005, must be to the right of the
mean and one-half must be to the left of the mean.
SITUATION A
A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether a new medication will have any
undesirable side effects. The researcher particularly concerned with the pulse rate of the
patients who take the medicine. Will the pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain the same
after a patient takes the medication? Since the researcher knows that the mean pulse rate
for the population under study is 82 beats per minute, the hypotheses for this situation are
H0: μ = 82 and H1: μ ≠ 82

(this is a two-tailed test, since the inequality sign is ≠, the null hypothesis will be rejected
only when the sample mean is significantly greater than or less than 82. Thus, the critical
value must be on the both side of the mean.) Noncritical or
nonrejection region

Critical or Critical or
Rejection region Rejection region

Figure 4 A two-tailed test with the critical value on both side of the normal distribution curve.

Let’s Practice 2! (Write your answer on your answer sheet.)

Direction: Read each situation carefully. Determine the type of tailed-test is

appropriate for each situation and justify your answer.
1. An engineer hypothesizes that the mean number of defects can be decreased
in a manufacturing process of compact discs by using robots instead of humans
for certain tasks. The mean number of defective discs per 1000 is 18.

2. A researcher thinks that if expectant mothers use vitamin pills, the birth weight
of the babies will increase. The average birth weight of the population is 8.6
pounds.
3. A psychologist feels that playing soft music during a test will change the results
of the test. The psychologist is not sure whether the grades will be higher or
lower. In the past, the mean of the scores was 73.

You are now done with determining the type of tailed-test based on hypothesis. At
this point, let’s proceed to discussing the steps involved in hypothesis testing.

What are the steps in hypothesis testing?

In hypothesis testing, the following are recommended steps:

1. State the hypotheses. Be sure to state both the null and the alternative
hypotheses.
2. Design the study. This step includes selecting the correct statistical test,
choosing a level of significance, and formulating a plan to carry out the study.
The plan should include information such as definition of the population, the way
the sample will be selected, and the methods that will be used to collect the data.

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Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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3. Conduct the study and collect the data.

4. Evaluate the data. The data should be tabulated in this step, and the statistical
test should be conducted. Finally, decide whether to reject or nor reject the null
hypothesis.
5. Summarize the results.

Solving Hypothesis-Testing Problems (Traditional Method)

Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.
Step 2: Find the critical value(s) from the appropriate table.
Step 3: Compute test value.
Step 4: Make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
Step 5: Summarize the results.

Now let’s proceed to hypothesis-testing the P-value method.

P-value Method for Hypothesis Testing

 The P-value (or probability value) is the probability of getting a sample statistic
(such as the mean) or a more extreme sample statistic in the direction of the
alternative hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.
 It is the actual area under the standard normal distribution curve (or other curve,
depending on what statisticaal test is being used) representing the probability of
a particular sample statistic or a more extreme sample statistic occuring if the
null hypothesis is true.
 We use P-values to make conclusions in significance testing. More specifically,
we compare the P-value to a significance level α (alpha) to make conclusions
about our hypotheses.
Solving Hypothesis-Testing Problems (P-value Method)
Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.
Step 2: Compute the test value.
Step 3: Find the P-value.
Step 4: Make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
Step 5: Summarize the results.

For deciding whether to reject or not reject the null hypothesis, you should follow
this decisition rule when using a P-value:
If P-value ≤ α, reject the null hypothesis.
If P-value > α, do not reject the null hypothesis.

An extension of the guidelines for P-values:

If P-value ≤ 0.01, reject the null hypothesis. The difference is highly significant.
If P-value > 0.01, but P-value ≤ 0.05, reject the null hypothesis. The difference is
significant.
If P-value > 0.05, but P-value ≤ 0.10, consider the consequence of type I error before
rejecting the null hypothesis.
If P-value > 0.10, do not reject the null hypothesis. The difference is not significant.

Prepared by: RIZZA EARL VEVERLY T. ANGELES, SST-III

Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing

There is a relationship between confidence intervals and hypothesis testing. When
the null hypothesis is rejected in a hypothesis testing situation, the confidence
interval for the mean using the same level of significance will not contain the
hypothesized mean. Likewise, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, the
confidence interval computed using the same level of significance will contain
the hypothesized mean.

You will learn more about these types of hypothesis testing as we

talk about the different statistical tools (techniques) throughout the
quarter. You are now done with this CapSLET’s lesson. But before you
evaluate how much you have learned today, let’s go back to a few key
points.

REMEMBER
Key Points
 The traditional method, P-value method, and confidence interval methods are the
three commonly used methods.
 The four (4) possible outcomes in hypothesis testing are:
 A type I error is committed when the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true.
 A correct decision when the null hypothesis is rejected when it is false.
 A correct decision when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is true.
 A type II error is committed when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is
false.
 The critical value will determine when to reject a null hypothesis.
 We use P-values to make conclusions in significance testing. More specifically,
we compare the P-value to a significance level α (alpha) to make conclusions
about our hypotheses.
 When the null hypothesis is rejected in a hypothesis testing situation, the
confidence interval for the mean using the same level of significance will not
contain the hypothesized mean.

TRY
Let’s see how much you have learned today!
Read each question carefully. Choose the best answer and write the CAPITAL
LETTER of the choice corresponding to your answer on your answer sheet.
1. Which of the following terms refer to the use of data obtained from a sample to make
a decision about whether the null hypothesis should be rejected?
A. Test value B. Statistical test C. Critical value D. Tailed-test
For items 2 – 5, read the given situation below and write the four possible outcomes
of the situation.
The hypothesis-testing situation can be likened to a jury tiral. In a jury trial,
there are four possible outcomes. the defendant is either guilty or innocent,
and he or she will be convicted or acquitted. Now the hypotheses are:
H0: The defendant is innocent
H1: The defendant is not innocent (i.e. guilty)
Next, the evidence is presented in court by the prosecutor, and based on this
evidence, the jury decides the verdict, innocent or guilty.
The four possible outcomes are:
2. ___________________________________________________________

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Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS
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3. ___________________________________________________________
4. ___________________________________________________________
5. ___________________________________________________________

For items 6 – 8, please refer to the figure below and answer the given questions:

6. What type of tailed-test is shown in the figure above?

A. Right-tailed test B. Left-tailed test C. Two-tailed test D. Critical value
7. Where is the noncritical or nonrejection region in the given figure?
A. The area to the right of the critical value which is not shaded.
B. The area to the left of the critical value which is shaded.
C. The critical value itself is the noncritical or nonrejection region.
D. The noncritical or nonrejection region cannot be found in the given figure.
8. What will you do to the null hypothesis when the test value falls on the shaded region
of the given figure?
A. Do not reject the null hypothesis C. No decision can be made.
B. Reject the null hypothesis D. Redo the data analsysis.
9. How do we use P-value in hypothesis testing?
A. We compare P-value to the significance level (α) to make a decision.
B. We compare P-value to the test value to make a decision.
C. We compare P-value to the critical value to make a decision.
D. We compare P-value to the z test value to make a decision.
10. Which of the following is TRUE when the null hypothesis is not rejected when you
use the confidence interval method?
A. The confidence interval for the mean using the same level of significance will
not contain the hypothesized mean.
B. The confidence interval computed using the same level of significance will
contain the hypothesized mean.
C. There is a type I error that occurred.
D. It is a correct decision.
Bluman, Allan G. “Hypothesis Testing”. In Elementary Statistics: A
Step by Step Approach, A Brief Version, 6th ed., 401–09. New
REFERENCE
York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 2013.
Images/Figures:
Figure 2, 3 & 4 - https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/critical-
value
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Prepared by: RIZZA EARL VEVERLY T. ANGELES, SST-III

Don Pablo Lorenzo Memorial High School - JHS