Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences

Hydrologiques

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Lake Victoria: derivation of a corrected natural

water level series / Lac Victoria: dérivation d'une
série naturelle corrigée des niveaux d'eau

J. V Sutcliffe & G Petersen

To cite this article: J. V Sutcliffe & G Petersen (2007) Lake Victoria: derivation of a corrected
natural water level series / Lac Victoria: dérivation d'une série naturelle corrigée des niveaux d'eau
, Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 52:6, 1316-1321, DOI:
10.1623/hysj.52.6.1316

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.6.1316

Published online: 15 Dec 2009.

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 1316 Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 52(6) December 2007

TECHNICAL NOTE

Lake Victoria: derivation of a corrected natural water level

series

J. V. SUTCLIFFE1 & G. PETERSEN2

1 Heath Barton, Manor Road, Goring on Thames, Oxfordshire RG8 9EH, UK
j.v.sutcliffe@talk21.com
2 HR Wallingford Ltd, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BA, UK

Abstract Lake Victoria water levels provide an important indicator of climate; since 1954 these levels
have been maintained natural by agreement, but after recent increased releases require adjustment to
retain a naturalised series. It is possible to compute the impact of recent over-abstraction on declining
water levels. This impact has been significant: of the order of 0.6 m.
Key words Lake Victoria, naturalised lake levels

Lac Victoria: dérivation d’une série naturelle corrigée des niveaux d’eau
Resumé Les niveaux d’eau du Lac Victoria constituent un indicateur important du climat; depuis 1954,
ces niveaux sont maintenus naturels par convention, mais nécessitent d’être corrigés en une série
naturalisée suite à une récente augmentation des prélèvements. Il est possible de calculer l’impact des
sur-prélèvements récents sur les niveaux d’eau. L’impact est significatif: de l’ordre de 0.6 m.
Mots clefs Lac Victoria, niveaux d’eau naturalisés

INTRODUCTION
Lake Victoria is one of the largest lakes in the world and is important as the source of
the White Nile; its water level is often quoted as an indicator of climate change and of
current hydrology because its contributing basin extends over a wide area of East
Africa. For example, a report in The Times (London) of 2 November 2005 featured a
fall in Lake Victoria water level of about a metre over the past ten years. The
prominence of this indicator means that the degree to which it represents natural
change is important. This paper aims to examine this and provide a naturalised level
series, corrected for recent abstractions, as it would have occurred under natural
conditions before 1954 or under the “Agreed Curve” after 1954.

THE BACKGROUND
The regime of Lake Victoria has been described by many authors over the years (e.g.
Piper et al., 1986; Sutcliffe & Parks, 1999). The inflow to the lake is dominated by the
enhanced rainfall on the lake surface of about 67 000 km2, which accounts for some
84% of the total; however, an important contribution is the inflow from a large number
of tributaries draining some 190 000 km2 of six countries, which makes up the
remaining 16% of the total but is subject to a greater variability from year to year
(some 30% compared with 10% for rainfall). The outflow from the lake includes
evaporation from the lake surface, which is less variable from year to year, and the
outflow down the Victoria Nile. Because the average lake rainfall and evaporation are
almost in balance, the lake outflow is very sensitive to variations in rainfall and
tributary inflow and has been highly variable in the past.

Open for discussion until 1 June 2008 Copyright © 2007 IAHS Press
 Lake Victoria: derivation of a corrected natural water level series 1317

Until 1954, the outflow from the lake was a natural function of the lake water level
and the geometry of the Ripon Falls, over which the Victoria Nile flowed. The Owen
Falls dam was completed in 1954 just below the Ripon Falls, but under an agreement
between Egypt and the UK, acting on behalf of Uganda, the dam was to be operated as
a run-of-river hydroelectric project. The outflows, through both turbines and sluices,
were controlled on a 10-day basis to conform to a relation known as the “Agreed
Curve”, which was derived to represent the relation between lake water level,
measured at the Jinja gauge near the outfall, and total outflow. After the lake level rose
some 2.5 m in 1961–1964, the Agreed Curve was extended (Fig. 1) based on model
testing (Hydraulics Research Station, 1966). This agreement ensured that downstream
flows, which at the time provided “timely flows” required for irrigation in Egypt after
controlling the behaviour of the “Sudd” wetland in the southern Sudan, remained
natural and unaffected by the existence of the dam. It followed that the measured lake
levels continued to reflect natural conditions within the Lake Victoria basin.

13.5

13

12.5
Jinja gauge (m)

12

11.5

11

10.5

10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
3 -1
Discharge (m s )
Fig. 1 The “Agreed Curve” relating Jinja gauge level and lake outflow (after
Hydraulics Research Station, 1966).

LAKE LEVELS
Regular measurements of Lake Victoria levels are available from 1896, with a gap in
1897–1898; early records at Entebbe and other sites have been converted to levels on
the Jinja gauge. This record, expressed as end-month levels above gauge zero (Fig. 2),
demonstrates a relatively steady regime from 1896 to 1961, within the limits of 10.2
and 12.0 m, followed by a conspicuous rise between 1961 and 1964, and an apparent
gentle decline interrupted by short-lived rises. Between 1862, when Speke visited Lake
Victoria, and 1896, a number of historic observations, combined with statistical use of
downstream measured flows (Tate et al., 2001), have enabled an extension backwards
to 1870 of the lake record (Fig. 3), showing that very high levels were reached in 1878
with comparatively rapid declines to lower levels. This total record presents a useful
guide to climate history over an important region.

Copyright © 2007 IAHS Press

1318 J. V. Sutcliffe & G. Petersen

13.5

13

12.5
Jinja
atlevel (m)(m)

12
gauge
Jinjalevel

11.5
Lake

11

10.5

10
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Measured Naturalised

Fig. 2 Lake Victoria measured monthly levels, 1896–2006, including naturalised

levels, 2000–2006.

Fig. 3 Lake Victoria levels, modelled (1870–1895) and observed (1896–2000) (after
Tate et al., 2001).

Recent level measurements have been supplemented by satellite-based

observations which are provided by USDA/FAS (2007), which mirror the concurrent
measurements. They provide an accessible source of records, but it is important that
the levels can be adjusted to reflect naturalised levels. Comparisons of measured lake
levels and corresponding flows enabled Kite (1981) to confirm that the necessary

Copyright © 2007 IAHS Press

 Lake Victoria: derivation of a corrected natural water level series 1319

works during the construction of the Owen Falls dam in 1951–1954 did not cause a net
departure from the Agreed Curve, as reductions in flow during construction were later
increased to restore the natural flow series.
Sene & Plinston (1994) confirmed this finding and by comparing Agreed Curve
outflows and dam releases, noted that releases have largely followed the Agreed
Curve, and that compensatory releases have usually followed any departures, and the
effects of departures have remained small to 1993. After a rise in the lake in early
1998, the outflow was reduced to alleviate flooding around Lake Kyoga downstream,
but was increased later to compensate for the departure from the Agreed Curve
(Goulden, 2006).

HYDROELECTRIC EXTENSION

The departure remained small until 2000, when the Owen Falls Extension, known as
the Kiira Dam, had been built in parallel with the original dam, and turbines
commissioned to use the water which had previously to be spilled to meet the Agreed
Curve outflows. A report by the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (April 2006) pointed
out that, “during the period 2001–2006, disparities began to occur between lake levels
and lake outflow”. Nile outflows have increased while lake levels have fallen; this is
partly attributed to increased outflow used by the new power units and partly to
periods of lower than historic rainfall over the basin. Mangeni (2006) noted that the
relation between lake level and Jinja releases corresponded from 1998 to 2000, but
beyond 2001 the relationship ceased to exist. Possible drought conditions were
examined through rainfall and evaporation between 1998 and 2004, but no significant
changes were detected; he concluded that the main cause of the lake level decline must
have been the operation of the dams and the increase in releases. Kull (2006), on the
other hand, used an average annual water balance to derive the possible effect of
degrees of drought on lake rainfall, tributary inflow and lake evaporation; he combined
this with simulation of various dam release rates in comparison with the Agreed Curve
release. He deduced that both drought and dam releases would have strong impacts on
lake levels, and by using available information on recent rainfall he concluded that the
severe lake level falls in 2004 and 2005 were about 45% due to drought and 55% due
to over-releases from the dams. However, the estimation of lake rainfall and tributary
inflow is not easy. Mubiru (2006), by contrast, argued that the fall was due to extreme
drought, and pointed out that the over-releases were an insignificant proportion of
losses by lake evaporation.

DEPARTURE FROM AGREED CURVE

There is a more direct method of deducing the relative effects of drought and dam
releases, which avoids the problem of estimating the total water balance of the lake.
Comparison of measured lake levels, outflows according to the Agreed Curve, and
actual dam releases can be used to derive a corrected natural lake level series which
would have resulted had releases been based on the Agreed Curve. Comparison of this
naturalised level series with actual measured levels can reveal the contribution of both
natural drought and any over-abstraction to a fall in the lake level. Although dam

Copyright © 2007 IAHS Press

1320 J. V. Sutcliffe & G. Petersen

releases are not formally published, they have in fact been presented in monthly form
up to December 2005 by Power Planning Associates (2007). Mubiru (December 2006)
noted that the outflows were reduced on 6 February 2006 to a value of 850 m3 s-1 and
further to 750 m3 s-1 on 10 August 2006. It has been assumed that this discharge has
been maintained to the end of 2006. In addition to historic lake levels, recent levels are
available from the USDA/FAS website.
There is a factor which could give rise to over-estimation of the effect of dam
releases (D. T. Plinston, personal communication). While the outflow from the lake is
controlled according to the Agreed Curve, the lake level is determined by the natural
water balance and the lake levels are the same as would have occurred if the power
station did not exist. When the lake outflow differs from the Agreed Curve for a long
period, the link with natural conditions is lost and the lake level departs from the
natural level. If the discharges are held above the Agreed Curve outflow, the lake level
at the end of the first period is lower than the natural level and the calculated Agreed
Curve outflow for the second period is lower than that based on the natural level.
Future levels and Agreed Curve estimates of outflows will be under-estimated and
there will be an exaggerated estimate of the excess water taken from the lake which
will accumulate over time. The effect of such a procedure is illustrated by the “false”
curve in Fig. 4; the use of measured levels to estimate Agreed Curve outflows would
suggest that almost all the fall in the lake was due to over-abstraction. The natural level
can be found by adding the excess outflow back at frequent intervals to the measured
levels, starting from when agreed and actual releases started to diverge. This might be
calculated on a daily or 10-daily basis, but monthly data have been used here.
To adjust the measured lake levels to the natural levels, the dam releases were
compared with the Agreed Curve outflow calculated as q = 132.9238(h – 8.486)1.686
(the equation used by DWD) according to the natural level h, above Jinja gauge zero,

12.5

12

False

11.5
Jinja Gauge (m)

Natural

11
Measured

10.5

10
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007

Fig. 4 Lake Victoria: measured and naturalised monthly levels, 2000–2006.

Copyright © 2007 IAHS Press

 Lake Victoria: derivation of a corrected natural water level series 1321

at the beginning of each month from January 2000; any excess discharge was divided
by the area of the lake (67 000 km2) and added to the change in lake level during the
month to give the natural level at the end of the month. This iterative calculation was
carried forward on a monthly basis to the end of 2006 to give a natural lake level series
which may be compared with the measured series (Fig. 4). The adjustment to be made
to measured levels is 61 cm at this date.

CONCLUSION
The Lake Victoria level series is a valuable indicator of climate variability, and it is
possible to correct manmade variations by comparing dam releases at the Owen Falls
complex with outflows corresponding to the Agreed Curve, provided that the
correction procedure is carried out at frequent intervals from the time of divergence
between agreed and actual discharges. The effect of over-abstraction of lake outflow is
illustrated by Fig. 2, where the recent naturalised levels are included, and in more
detail in Fig. 4. Over the years 2000–2006, the measured level has fallen 1.19 m, while
the corrected naturalised level has fallen only 0.58 m; thus the effect of over-
abstraction has been a fall increased by 0.61 m, or about half the measured fall. The
effect of over-abstraction has therefore been significant over these years, and the
reality is about the mean of the four analyses quoted above.

Acknowledgements Thanks are due to a number of individuals, including two

referees, who have contributed to the discussion of the topic of this paper.

REFERENCES
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dependent societies in Uganda. PhD Thesis School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
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Report no. EX 316, Hydraulics Research Station, Wallingford, UK.
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Received 26 January 2007; accepted 29 August 2007

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