Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712

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Journal of Cleaner Production

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Influential factors of national and regional CO2 emission in China

based on combined model of DPSIR and PLS-SEM
Yigang Wei a, b, Xinhua Zhu c, Yan Li d, Tang Yao a, b, *, Yuan Tao e
a
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
b
Beijing Key Laboratory of Emergency Support Simulation Technologies for City Operation, China
c
School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
d
Business School, Shandong University at Weihai, Shandong, China
e
Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In China, carbon emission mitigation is a considerable challenge due to the massive quantity of CO2
Received 21 May 2018 emissions, which has been relentlessly growing for a long time. In this study, the Driving-Pressure-State-
Received in revised form Impact-Response (DPSIR) method is used to identify the influential factors of China's carbon emissions.
12 November 2018
This empirical research, which is based on provincial panel data and the structural equation model
Accepted 17 November 2018
Available online 8 December 2018
through the partial least squares approach, reveals the path relationships between carbon emissions and
their influential factors. The estimation comprehensively covers 35 indicators during the period of 1996
e2015. Empirical results show that the driving factor, pressure, state and response on the national level
Keywords:
Carbon emission
significantly impact carbon emissions. From a regional perspective, driving factor has significant impact
Influential factors in the northeast, northwest, southwest and south of China, and pressure factor exerts effect in the
DPSIR northeast, north, east, northwest, southwest and central south of China. The state factor plays a role in
PLS-SEM the southwest, central and south. As for response factor, the northeast, east, northwest and southwest
China are affected regions. This study provides a comprehensive and accurate indicator estimation framework
for carbon emission. The identified influential factors can guide Chinese governments at all levels in
scientifically formulating policies to effectively reduce carbon emission.
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction has become a global environmental challenge. Reducing CO2

Climate warming has become a serious environmental problem
in the world and will lead to global warming, glacier melting, sea
level rise, droughts, floods and other natural disasters, which pose a
substantial threat to human survival and development (Chen and
Guan, 2010; Li et al., 2018; Yao et al., 2019). CO2, being the main
component of greenhouse gases, has become a major concern for
governments and related institutions as the primary factor in global
warming (Shi et al., 2017; Wei et al., 2018a). Therefore, the inter-
national community has implemented coordinated measures to
deal with global warming and control greenhouse gas and CO2
emissions. Since the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and
Development held in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, tackling climate change
* Corresponding author. School of Economics and Management, Beihang Uni-
versity, Beijing, China.
E-mail addresses: weiyg@buaa.edu.cn (Y. Wei), 20110033@hhu.edu.cn (X. Zhu),
liyan2@sdnu.edu.cn (Y. Li), yaot@buaa.edu.cn (T. Yao), yt289@cam.ac.uk (Y. Tao).
emissions and promoting low-carbon economies have become an
international consensus. In 2009, at the World Climate Conference
held in Copenhagen, Denmark, major countries formulated their
reduction targets for carbon emissions by 2020 according to their
own conditions. This move became an important basis on which
countries began exerting effort to mitigate climate warming. Fig. 1
shows the total volume of CO2 emissions of China and compares the
emission weights of the world's top four emitters (i.e. China, U.S.,
E.U. and India) during the period of 2006e2016. According to sta-
tistics from Statistical Review of World Energy (BP, 2018), the
world's total emission exhibits an increasing trend, rising from
2.943 million tons in 2006 to 3.3432 million tons in 2016 at an
annual growth rate of 1.24%; CO2 emissions in the four regions
differ remarkably; China, as the top emitter since 2016, accounted
for approximately 31% of the world's total CO2 emissions, followed
by the U.S. (18%), E.U. (12%) and India (8%), in 2016; In terms of
emission growth rates, China and India, as the largest developing
economies, emitted at an annual increase rate of 7.3% and 3.4%,

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.155
0959-6526/© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712
Fig. 1. CO2 Emissions of The World Top 4 Emitters during 2006e2016 (Right axis: 1000
tons; Left axis: %).
Source of Data: BP (BP, 2018).
respectively, in 2006 and 2016, whilst emissions of E.U. and U.S.
followed a downward trajectory. Meanwhile, influential factors
affecting CO2 emissions and the extent of their impact are relevant
in the field of environmental protection because these influential
factors play a role in the constitution of CO2 abatement measures,
policies and strategies of nations (Li et al., 2014; Chiang et al., 2015).
With the continuous growth of China's economy, the energy
consumption driven by rapid urbanisation and industrialisation has
been growing rapidly (Wei et al., 2015a, b; Wei et al., 2016), which
has redirected the attention of other countries to China's carbon
emissions, thereby requiring China to assume a larger share in the
emission reduction task (Shen et al., 2018; Wei and Yang, 2010).
According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, China
surpassed the U.S. in becoming the largest CO2-emitting country in
2007 (Vidal and Adam, 2007). The total CO2 emissions in China will
continue to grow for a long time due to sustained economic growth
and long-term industrial transformation (Shuai et al., 2018). Under
this condition, China has pledged to reduce CO2 intensity (CO2/unit
of GDP) by 40%e45% by 2020 on the basis of 2005, which is not
easy. Resource endowments, population size, levels of economic
development and industrial and energy structures in different re-
gions substantially vary in China due to its vast territory. Under the
considerable pressure of emission reduction, identifying the main
influential factors of China's carbon emissions systematically and
comprehensively is important. Carbon emissions may be reduced
effectively by adjusting these influential factors, which is vital in
achieving China's CO2 emission reduction targets.
On the basis of the Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response
(DPSIR) model, this study aims to investigate five important as-
pects influencing carbon emission in China, i.e. driving force,
pressure, state, impact and response, to 1) identify the main
influential factors of China's carbon emissions, 2) quantitatively
measure the contributions of each factor, 3) construct a framework
and verify the influential paths between the factors and carbon
emissions and 4) recommend policies for CO2 emission reduction.
Empirical findings provide a practical reference for low-carbon
governance by empowering the government to improve policies
and institutional backgrounds.
The contributions of this study focus on two aspects. Firstly,
several factors affect carbon emissions; however, previous studies
have adopted merely the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) or
the stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence and
technology (STIRPAT) model, which comprises limited factors. This
limitation causes model bias and affects the interpretation and
prediction of carbon emissions due to the lack of variables. Hence,
this study selects the DPSIR model, which includes 36 influential
699
factors that refer to different systematic indicators, thereby
increasing the reliability and accuracy of results. Secondly, this
study contributes to research methodology in that it is the first to
adopt partial least squares (PLS)-SEM in constructing and verifying
the impact paths between multiple influential factors and carbon
emission in China. The conclusions of this study have theoretical
and practical contributions. In the theoretical aspect, our research
provides a comprehensive and accurate carbon emission indicator
evaluation system. Meanwhile, the methodology can be used in
other fields, such as waste water and air pollution. In the practical
aspect, the identified influential factors in our research can guide
Chinese governments at all levels in formulating policies for the
effective reduction of carbon emission.
In terms of the structure of this study, following the introduc-
tion, section 2 explores the theoretical backgrounds and previous
research about influential factors of CO2 emission. Subsequently,
section 3 describes data collection and method of PLS-SEM. Then
section 4 analyzes the data and discusses the results to identify the
path relationships between carbon emissions and their influential
factors in China. Finally, section 5 summarizes the study and pro-
vided policy recommendations.
2. Literature review
2.1. Methods for identifying influential factors of CO2 emission
Several methods have been adopted to examine the influential
factors of CO2 emissions since they were noticed by the academe.
Nowadays, many scholars use the popular LMDI and STIRPAT
models to examine the influential factors of CO2 emissions. The
LMDI model is used to decompose CO2 emissions into GDP per
capita, population, energy consumption intensity, industrial
structure and energy consumption structure in substantial research
(e.g. Song, 2012; Tan et al., 2011; Zhao and Long, 2010). These works
have provided scientific evidence that supports strategies for
effective CO2 emission reduction. However, only a few influential
factors, such as GDP per capita, population, economic development
level, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity and en-
ergy consumption structure, are analysed for their impact on CO2
emissions; thus, supportive evidence for the construction of CO2
emission reduction strategies is limited.
The STIRPAT model is also a well-known method of analysing
the influential factors of CO2 emissions (Shuai et al., 2018). Zhu and
Peng (2012) utilised the STIRPAT model to examine the influential
factors of China's CO2 emissions. Sumabat et al. (2016) applied this
method to discuss factors that affect CO2 emissions due to fossil
energy consumption in China. With an improved STIRPAT model
integrating PLS regression, Wang et al. (2012) empirically analysed
the impacts of economic and urbanisation level, industry propor-
tion, energy consumption intensity and R&D outcomes on CO2
emissions in Beijing. However, in the STIRPAT model, CO2 emissions
are decomposed into limited factors only, such as population,
affluence and technology. Hence, the STIRPAT model cannot fully
reflect the process of interaction between the three components of
the system.
To link influential factors with research objectives in the envi-
ronment field, several political and scientific indicators have been
incorporated into the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, which
is popular for integrating different aspects into a whole model. The
first PSR model was developed by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), in association with the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Statistics
Canada (Hammond and World Resources Institute, 1995). Various
elements were included into a causal chain framework of the PSR
model. For example, the PSR model used in the context of land
700 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712
protection contains the following indicators; the pressures and
states are represented by certain species, and the responses serve
as policy support for land protection measures (Kohsaka, 2010; Bai
et al., 2015). Since the 1990s, when this model was originally
developed by the OECD, new institutions, such as the UNEP, US
Environmental Protection Agency and World Resources Institute,
have used it to analyse environmental indicators (Niemeijer and de
Groot, 2008).
The original PSR model had to be modified due to its lack of
behavioural factors, and human-induced pressures and responses
had to be emphasised by scholars (Lin et al., 2009). DPSIR, a
modified causal framework that integrates the drivers for analysing
interactions between society and environment, was developed by
the European Environment Agency (2006). The DPSIR model is
influential and useful in the domain of environmental issues (e.g.
Hong and Lee, 2006) and contributes to the development of in-
dicators in two aspects. (a) The construct refers to political pur-
poses and (b) emphasises correlative causal relations (Maxim et al.,
2009). The DPSIR model can be understood easily and concisely;
therefore, specific policies or management actions can be proposed
to solve environmental problems caused by anthropogenic factors
(Niemeijer and de Groot, 2008).
2.2. Influential factors of carbon emission
Several factors influence CO2 emission, including the develop-
ment of technology, wealth, energy structure, economic structure
and population constitution (Ma et al., 2017). However, according
to a different period of research, these factors explain CO2 emission
in various ways (Fan et al., 2006). When the research was only
beginning, some traditional studies held the opinion that the
growing CO2 emissions were determined by only one factor, i.e. the
increasing consumption of energy or of the population. They failed
to consider the possibility of multiple factors simultaneously
affecting the emission. For instance, Knapp and Mookerjee (1996)
believed that the growth of global population increased carbon
emissions. However, Granger disproved this statement by con-
ducting a test in which he analysed the cause and effect. Results
showed that they were not related to each other in the long run.
York et al. (2003) examined the relationship between population
and CO2 emissions via the STIRPAT model. Wei and Yang (2010)
investigated the relationship between technological advancement
and carbon emissions on the basis of panel data collected in
different Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2007. They focused on the
relationship between technological development and carbon
emissions. Nevertheless, the studies above failed to observe that
the factors affecting carbon emission might be linked to each other
in space and instead regarded them as separate and isolated.
Afterwards, an increasing number of studies began to realise
that several factors, such as population, energy consumption and
technologies, have a deciding effect on CO2 emissions. Wang and
Zhao (2015) explored the relationship between the factors
causing carbon emission from energy consumption and the
development level in different regions in China. They concluded
that compared with developed areas, developing areas were more
affected by population in terms of carbon emissions. Wang et al.
(2015) adopted an extended STIRPAT model and discovered that
the increase in CO2 emissions is closely associated with energy-
related factors. Begum et al. (2015) observed that the growth in
population caused by urbanisation led to an increase in carbon
emissions. Guan et al. (2016) produced a list of factors that affect
carbon emissions in China, including population density, individual
yearly net income in rural areas, employment in urban areas and
the proportion of value created in the third industry to GDP.
Meanwhile, Xu and Lin (2017) created another list including factors
affecting carbon emissions in Beijing, including gross energy con-
sumption divided by GDP, coal consumption in industrialisation by
its aggregate use of energy and the progress of urbanisation. Shuai
et al. (2018) found 43 influential factors that may affect carbon
emissions and used the STIRPAT model to test whether these fac-
tors had any real influence on carbon emissions in China.
However, these problems have some key shortcomings. Firstly,
the theory for the factors of CO2 emissions is not well supported.
Instead of seeing the influential factors in a systematic manner,
studies that emphasised several factors lack a clear design or sys-
tem in their models. These factors include the total number of
people, development in economy and technology, arrangement of
energy and industry and progress achieved in urbanisation and
industrialisation. Secondly, results of existing studies are not suf-
ficiently persuasive due to the choice of method. The structure
equation model analysis method, which can support their conclu-
sions well, was barely adopted; instead, they favoured the
inputeoutput method. However, one predictor variable in this
model can be linearly predicted from the others with a high degree
of accuracy, given that several factors influence CO2 emissions,
thereby indicating how well the entire bundle of predictors can
calculate the outcome variable. Thirdly, as far as we are concerned,
the DPSIR model has not been used in the literature to analyse the
influential factors of CO2 emission in China. Hence, in reference to
the ‘Construction Index of Ecological County, Ecological City and
Ecological Province’ (MEEC, Ministry of Ecology and Environment
of the People's Republic of China, 2008) and ‘The Index of the Na-
tional Ecological Civilisation Construction Pilot Demonstration
Zone’ (MEEC, 2013) and based on the existing literature of
ecological civilisation and economic research (Liao, 2010) and a
study that analysed the eco-environmental carrying capacity of
Fujian Province in China using the DPSIR model (Zheng et al., 2017),
35 indicators are carefully selected for the DPSIR conceptual model
in the current work. Meanwhile, we listed the studies which
scrutinised the influential factors of carbon emission and the
application of our DPSIR model to the influential factors selected, as
shown in Table 1. From the discussion above, our research not only
selects as many influential factors as possible but also examines
them in a systematic model. Consequently, we can test the rela-
tionship and the reliable regression coefficients among these fac-
tors to develop a mechanism on how the influential factors affect
carbon emissions in China.
3. Data and research method
3.1. Indicators
On the basis of the previous discussion, several factors have
been identified to affect carbon emissions; however, a compre-
hensive explanatory framework is still lacking. Therefore, this study
incorporates all the factors into the research framework of the
DPSIR and PLS-SEM models to further analyse the extent to which
these factors can affect carbon emission and to explore the influ-
ential factors and influence path of carbon emissions in China.
3.1.1. Endogenous indicators
Carbon emission is determined by local CO2 emissions.
3.1.2. Exogenous indicators
After careful evaluation and analysis, we list the studies that
scrutinised the influential factors of carbon emission and the
application of the DPSIR model to the selected influential factors, as
shown in Table 1.
 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712 701

Table 1
Summary of the impacts of carbon emission and the DPSIR model.

Latent Observable variable Impact Source

variable Direction

Driving GDP per capita þ Omri (2013); Wang et al. (2013)

force Population growth rate
Urbanisation rate
Growth rate of construction land
Urban employment rate
The farmers annual net income per capita
Pressure Population density
Total energy consumption
Energy consumption per GDP
Energy consumption per capita
The ratio of coal consumption in total energy
consumption
The ratio of industry's coal consumption in
total energy consumption
The ratio of fossil fuel in total energy
consumption
Total fossil energy consumption
Carbon emission per energy consumption
State Total population
Population growth rate
Urban population
Total permanent population
The ratio of the floating population in total
population
The average household size
Total patents
GDP per energy consumption
Impact The ratio of the industry sector output value
over the total GDP
The ratio of the secondary industry output
value over the total GDP
The ratio of the tertiary industry output value
over the total GDP
Growth rate of industrial value-added as a
percentage of GDP
Growth rate of agriculture value-added as a
percentage of GDP
Response Elastic coefficient of energy consumption
The ratio of environmental protection
investment as a percentage of GDP
Ratio of green space
The ratio of harmless treatment of municipal
solid waste
Investment in urban environmental
infrastructure
The ratio of comprehensive utilization of
industrial solid waste
The ratio of centralized treatment of urban
sewage
The standard rate of discharge of industrial
waste water
þ Begum et al. (2015).
þ Zhang et al. (2014); Wang et al. (2013); Xiao et al. (2015)
þ Zhang and Xu (2017); Wang et al. (2015)
þ Andrews (2008).
þ Chen et al. (2016); Guan et al. (2016); Zhang et al. (2015)
þ Jones and Kammen (2014); Yu (2014)
þ Zaman and Abd-el Moemen (2017); Pan et al. (2017); Wu et al. (2016); Li et al. (2013)
þ Kasman and Duman (2015); Duan et al. (2017); Tang et al. (2015)
þ Liu (2015); Fan et al. (2017); Wang et al. (2015); Wang and Guan (2010)
þ Jiang et al. (2017); Luo et al. (2016); Wang and Li (2017)
þ Chen et al. (2014a,b); Xu and Lin (2017); Zhang et al. (2018); Jia et al. (2018); Wei et al. (2010)
þ Apergis and Payne (2017); Liu et al. (2015); Peng et al. (2018); Fang et al. (2009)
þ Wang and Ye (2017); Liu et al. (2018); Huang et al. (2017); Ma et al. (2017); Geng et al. (2016)
þ Cui et al. (2013); Dou et al. (2013); Yao et al. (2015); Chen et al. (2016); Han et al. (2015)
þ Begum et al. (2015); Chen et al. (2013); Li et al. (2017a,b); Zhang and Zhou (2016)
þ Begum et al. (2015); Zhang and Zhou (2016); Zhang et al. (2017)
þ Gao and Guan (2009a, b); Li et al. (2017a,b); Zhang and Xu (2017); Zhou and Chan (2017a, b)
þ Wang et al. (2011); Yao et al. (2009); Zhou et al. (2009)
þ Yang et al. (2015); Guo et al. (2016); Xia et al. (2017); Zhang et al. (2017)
þ Ahmad et al. (2017)
e Chen and Guan (2012); Guan (2012); Guan and Chen (2010, 2012); Guan and Wang (2010); Gao and
Guan (2009a, b); Guan and Gao (2009); He et al. (2017); Shuai et al. (2018)
e Kasman and Duman (2015); Ho et al. (2017); Xiao et al. (2015)
þ Poumanyvong and Kaneko (2010)
þ Zhang and Da (2015); Wang et al. (2017)
e Zhang and Da (2015); Mi et al. (2015)
þ Ouyang and Lin (2015)
þ Poumanyvong and Kaneko (2010)
þ Li and Lin (2015); Liu et al. (2017); Mo et al. (2016)
e Lee et al. (2015); Zhu et al. (2018)
e Chen (2015)
e Wang and Geng (2015)
e Chen (2015); Zhang et al. (2016)
e Pan et al. (2015)
e Singh and Carliell-Marquet (2016)
e Ashrafi et al. (2015)

Note: “þ” and “-” indicate a positive and negative relationships between observable variables and CO2 emissions respectively.

3.2. Data source
China's CO2 emissions mainly come from fossil material con-
sumption during the industrial production process. Therefore, the
amount of CO2 emissions can be estimated on the basis of three
primary energy sources, namely, coal, oil and natural gas. This study
estimates CO2 according to the reference method provided in
Chapter VI of Volume II (Energy) of the Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories designated by the IPCC (2006) because
China does not have specific statistical data on CO2. The calculation
process is as follows:
X3
CO2 ¼ E  NCVj  CEFj  COFi  ð44=12Þ
i¼1 i
where CO2 is calculated by the formula; I ¼ 1, 2 3 represents three
primary energy sources, namely coal, oil and natural gas; E stands
for energy consumption and is obtained by converting the three
primary energy sources into 10 thousand tons of standard coal;
NCV is net calorific value of energy; CEF is carbon emission coef-
ficient; COF is carbon oxidation factor; and 44 and 12 are CO2 and
carbon molecular weight, respectively.
Considering the availability of data, this study selects the panel
data of 30 provinces in China from the period of 1996e2015. Due to
critical lack of data, Tibet is not included. Data used in this paper are
all sourced from the China Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Sta-
tistical Yearbook and local statistical yearbooks. To investigate the
(1) regional heterogeneities in the influential factors of CO2 emissions,
the 30 provinces of China are grouped into 6 regional markets ac-
cording to their widely recognised similarities in socioeconomic
702 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712

and environmental aspects (Table 2). reflection, where observable variable is associated with a unique
latent variable, and the connection regarding the j groups of
3.3. Research method observable variable Xjh and its latent variable can be expressed by a
linear regression equation, namely:
3.3.1. Introduction to the PLS-SEM method
Xjh ¼ ljh xj þ εjh (2)
The covariance-based technique and the variance-based PLS, i.e.
CB-SEM and PLS-SEM, are widely known types of SEM modelling.
€reskog and Wold, εjh is the random error term in the equation. The above equation
Although both are derived from the same basis (Jo
1982), they bifurcated as the CB-SEM was mainly preferred by satisfies the assumed condition:
earlier studies, whilst PLS-SEM quickly gained popularity in recent   

years because of its reputation as a special and creative analysis E Xjh xj ¼ ljh xj (3)
method that has many variates (Guan and Ma, 2009; Henseler and
The aforementioned assumption bears the indication that the
Chin, 2010; Lu et al., 2015). PLS-SEM is not demanding in terms of
residual mean is 0 and bears no correlation with the latent variable.
scope of measurement and number of samples and residual dis-
Such assumption is also known as the prediction specified condition.
tributions because it is a soft modelling technique (Tenenhaus et al.,
In the reflection, a set of observable variables is only a partial
2005). In addition, it can extract all the hidden characteristics from
reflection of the characteristics in a certain aspect, that is, the latent
the data observed (Bagozzi and Yi, 2012). CB-SEM minimises the
variable reflected by the set of observable variables is the only
divergence between the estimated and sample covariance matrices
dimension. As such, it is necessary to test the unique dimension of
by estimating model parameters; by contrast, PLS-SEM implements
the given set of latent variables. Three methods are available for the
a different approach by estimating partial model relationships in an
unique dimension test of observable variables: Principal Compo-
iterative sequence of ordinary least squares regressions to maxi-
nent Analysis of observable variables, Cronbach Coefficient a and
mise the explained variance of the endogenous latent variables
dillon goldstein's rho coefficient r.
(Astrachan et al., 2014; Wang and Fu, 2004). PLS-SEM, which is a
When the observable variable fails the unique dimension test,
modelling approach built on regression, employs a component-
some variables can be deleted, or the variable group can be split to
centred method to describe the directed dependencies among a
meet the requirements.
set of variables (Hair et al., 2012).
Other than reflection is the constitution, which refers to the fact
In this study, the influence of essential factors behind carbon
that latent variable xj is a linear combination of all the variables in
emissions in China is evaluated by inputting them into a PLS-SEM
its observable variable group, namely:
model. The reasons for selecting PLS-SEM are as follows. Firstly,
unlike CB-SEM, PLS-SEM does not require more than two normal
X
Pj
distributions for the input data but pays less attention on the xj ¼ WXjh þ dj (4)
assumption of normal distribution, thereby obtaining the scores of h¼1
the variable inferred from directly measured variables with accu-
racy. It can be achieved when we acquire a random sample from the dj is the random error term in the equation. Equation (5) should
population to obtain parameter estimates (Shen et al., 2016). Sec- meet the prediction specified condition:
ondly, PLS-SEM is preferable because it is workable in a construct
with only one measurement (Hair et al., 2012). Thirdly, whilst CB-    XPj

SEM is not the best choice for prediction research, PLS-SEM is E xx1 ; x2 //; xj ¼ WXjh (5)
perfectly acceptable. We hope that our results will be useful in h¼1

predicting factors that influence carbon emission.
3.3.2. Measurement model
Assume that there are J sets of observable variables, with each
group containing pj variables, and thus, each set of observable
variables can be expressed as, Xj ðxj1 ; xj2 ; /; xjPj Þ; ðj ¼ 1; 2; /; JÞ. In
most cases, the observable variables Xjh ðj ¼ 1; 2; /; J; h ¼ 1; 2; //;
pj Þ are assumed to be based on n common observation points, and
each variable is centralized. Each set of observable variables cor-
responds to a latent variable and is assumed to be normalised, i.e.
the mean is 0, and the variance is 1. Hence, each set of observable
variables Xj and the corresponding latent variables xj constitute a
measurement model, also known as an external model.
The relationships between observable and latent variables are
demonstrated by the measurement model in two ways. One is
It can be inferred that the mean of residual dj is 0 and the re-
sidual is not correlated to the observable variable Xjh .
3.3.3. Structure model
The structure model is description of causality different implicit
variables, usually represented by a linear equation:
X
xj ¼ bji xi þ zj (6)
isj
zj in the equation is the random error item that satisfies prediction
specified condition, i.e. residual averages 0 and is not correlated to
xj .
Equation (6) is an indication of the interdependence existing
among salient variables and thus can be regarded as a causal

Table 2
Regional divisions.

Region Province-level municipality and provinces included

North China Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei province, Shanxi

Northeast China Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Eastern China Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong
Central and South China Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, Hainan
Southwest China Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing
Northwest China Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712 703

association model, and it must be a causal chain, that is, there is no
loop in the causal model. Thereby the internal structure causal
association model can be represented by a 0/1 square matrix whose
dimension is the number of latent variables. If the latent variable j
interprets the latent variable i, the element in the matrix takes the
value 1, otherwise 0. This matrix is also called the internal design
matrix.
large estimation error given that mode 2 is selected, and the
choosing mode 1 is more suitable under circumstance of PLS-SEM
when the partial least squares is used for calculation.
The PLS-SEM model generally applies the iterative method to
calculation of the latent variables and finally calculated the mea-
surement model and the structural model based on the estimated
values of the hidden variables. The specific steps are as follows:

Step 1: Have the initial value of Yj equal Xj1 ;

3.3.4. Model estimation Step 2: Calculate the estimate of Zj with Equation (8)
Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) primarily estimates the Step 3: Calculate the weight vector Wj with equation (10) or (11)
latent variables by iterative method, which can be operated in two based on the estimate of Zj .
ways. One is to calculate the latent variables based the correlation Step 4: Apply Wj to equation (7) to calculate Yj and return to∧step
between observable variables and latent variables, also known as 2 until the calculation of convergence, which ends up with x j as
external estimate. The latent variable xj can be estimated with the estimate of Yj to latent variable xj .
reference to the linear combination of observable variable Xjh ðj ¼ Step 5: Estimate every coefficient ljh and bjh of the measure-
1; 2; /J; h ¼ 1; 2; /; pj Þ, and the value is noted as Yj . Since the ment model∧ and structure model with the normal least squares,
assumed latent variable xj is standardized, therefore: based on x j .
!*
X
Pj
 *
Yj ¼ Wjh Xjh ¼ Xj Wj (7) 3.3.5. Statistic Significance test
h¼1 The statistical significance test is performed by the boot-
strapping method. There are no essential assumptions for PLS-SEM
Wj in the equation is the weight vector and the asterisk means the that the data should be normally distributed. It means that para-
standardization to the estimate. metric significance tests (e.g., as used in regression analyses) are
On the other hand, it is calculated by the association between not applicable to test whether coefficients and path coefficients are
latent variables, also known as internal estimation. It is mainly an significant. Instead, a nonparametric bootstrap procedure is appli-
estimate of latent variables xj and other latent variables, which are cable for PLS-SEM to test the statistical significance of PLS-SEM
recorded as Zj : results including path coefficients, Cronbach's alpha, and R2
0 1* values (Davison and Hinkley, 1997).
X In bootstrapping, subsamples are created by repeated sampling
Zj ¼ @ eij Yi A (8) based on the limited sample data. The re-establish subsamples can
i;bij
sufficiently represent the distribution of maternal samples. The
subsample is then used to estimate the PLS path model. This pro-
bji is the coefficient in Equation (8), eji is the internal weight, which cess is iteratively processed until the maximum number of random
is calculated through the following equation:
subsamples has been created, typically about 5000. The parameter
8     estimates (e.g., outer weights, outer loadings and path coefficients)
r Y ;Y >0
   < 1   j i  estimated from the subsamples are used to derive standard errors
eji ¼ sign r Yj ; Yi ¼ 0 r Yj ; Yi  ¼ 0 (9)
: for the estimates. With this information, t-values are calculated to
1 r Yj ; Yi < 0
assess each estimate's significance. Please refer to Hair et al. (2017)
for a detailed analysis of bootstrapping.
“Sign” refers to sign function while rðYj ; Yi Þ stands for the correla-
tion coefficient of the external weight estimate Yj and Yi .
4. Results and discussion
The specific equation for mode 1 is as follows:

1 4.1. Results of DPSIR in different regions

Wj ¼ X Tj Zj (10)
n
In this case, weight vector Wj is the correlation variable or
variance of Xj and Zj . In fact, for the standardized variables, Wj is the
weight of the first component under Zj 's Partial least square
regression to Xj , i.e. the first axis vector of the partial least
regression.
The specific equation for mode 2 is as follows:
 1
Wj ¼ X Tj Xj X Tj Zj (11)
In this case, Wj refers to the formula coefficient after Zj 's normal
least square regression to .
When the relationship between the observable variable and the
latent variable is the reflection mode, the general selection for
weight calculation is likely to be mode 1; when the relationship
between the observable variable and the latent variable is the
constituent mode, the mode 2 is usually chosen to calculate the
weight. At the same time, since each observable variable aggregate
must have a high degree of collinearity so in this case there is a
Firstly, correlation and partial correlation analyses are per-
formed, and the measure index which has no significant correlation
with the dependent variables is eliminated (Shuai et al., 2018).
Then, the initial structural equation model is constructed with the
remaining index. Afterwards, the external load coefficient between
the first-level and two-level indexes is obtained. According to the
PLS-SEM method (Henseler and Chin, 2010), the negative value and
the value less than 0.5 of the loadings of observable variables are
removed from the DPSIR model. Results of the influential factors of
carbon emission in different regions are shown in Table 3. To assess
the goodness of the discriminant validity of the DPSIR model, the
square roots of the average extracted variance of variables should
be above the absolute value of the corresponding correlation co-
efficients of variables and over 0.50 (Chin, 1998). Statistics of the
estimation process are shown in Appendix. These findings are
presented in Table 3, which exhibits a good discriminant validity of
the DPSIR model in different regions. Meanwhile, with use of the
PLS-SEM method, the structural path estimates for the DPSIR model
in different regions are calculated (Table 3).
704 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712

Table 3
Influential factors of carbon emission.

Region Observable variable Latent variable

Driving force Pressure State Impact Response

Nationwide Carbon emission per energy consumption e 0.820 e e e

The ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption e 0.756 e e e
Total fossil energy consumption e 0.841 e e e
The ratio of fossil fuel in total energy consumption e 0.808 e e e
Ratio of green space e e e e 0.808
The farmers annual net income per capita 0.947 e e e e
GDP per capita 0.960 e e e e
Urban population e e 1 e e
The ratio of centralized treatment of urban sewage e e e e 0.891
The ratio of comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste e e e e 0.640
Northeast China Carbon emission per energy consumption e 0.821 e
The ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption e 0.708 e e
Total fossil energy consumption e 0.871 e e
The ratio of fossil fuel in total energy consumption e 0.812 e e
The ratio of environmental protection investment as a percentage of GDP e e e e 0.835
Ratio of green space e e e e 0.886
The farmers annual net income per capita e e e e
GDP per capita 0.986 e e e
The ratio of centralized treatment of urban sewage e e e e 0.86
North China Carbon emission per energy consumption 0.841 e e e e
The ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption 0.806 e e e e
Total fossil energy consumption 0.943 e e e e
The ratio of fossil fuel in total energy consumption 0.824 e e e e
Total energy consumption 0.781 e e e e
Total population e 0.945 e e
East China Carbon emission per energy consumption e 0.551 e e e
Total fossil energy consumption e 0.917 e e e
The ratio of fossil fuel in total energy consumption e 0.564 e e e
Growth rate of industrial value-added as a percentage of GDP e e e 0.988 e
The ratio of the industry sector output value over the total GDP e e e 0.986
The ratio of centralized treatment of urban sewage e e e e 1
Northwest China Carbon emission per energy consumption e 0.949 e e e
The ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption e 0.9 e e e
Total fossil energy consumption e 0.83 e e e
The ratio of fossil fuel in total energy consumption 0.953 e e e
Growth rate of agriculture value-added as a percentage of GDP e e e 1 e
Population growth rate 1 e e e e
The ratio of harmless treatment of municipal solid waste e e e e 0.808
Southwest China Total fossil energy consumption e 0.917 e e
Population density e 0.846 e e e
Urban employment rate (employ) 1 e e e e
Energy consumption per capita e 0.842 e e e
The ratio of environmental protection investment as a percentage of GDP e e e e 0.855
The ratio of harmless treatment of municipal solid waste (R2) e e e e 0.915
Urban population e e 0.902 e e
Central and southern China The ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption e 0.562 e e e
Total fossil energy consumption e 0.961 e e e
The farmers annual net income per capita 0.993 e e e e
GDP per capita 0.994 e e e e
Urban population e e 1 e e

4.2. Influential factors of carbon emission from the national
perspective
According to the results of the model (Tables 4 and 5), the
driving factor, pressure, state and response on the national level
have a significant impact on carbon emissions, which is consistent
with previous research results. The path coefficient of the driving
factor and carbon emissions is 0.064, indicating that the per capita
GDP and the per capita net income of farmers and carbon emissions
have a positive effect nationwide, given that the influence is low.
The low positive impact of driving factor on carbon emission is
understandable in terms of related theories and evidence. Ac-
cording to environmental Kuznets curve theory, either the sus-
tainable development of the economy or the emissions of major
pollutants follows a pattern that maintains a growing trend until a
specific transformation point appears (Huang et al., 2018); before
that, the economic growth measured by per capita GDP tends to
bring more energy consumption and carbon emissions (Wang et al.,
2013; Guan et al., 2016). China's economy has been growing rapidly
for decades, and many empirical studies have demonstrated that
China's economy, measured by GDP or per capita GDP, is
approaching a transformation point, considering that some devel-
oped regions have leaped over transformation points (Chen, 2011;
Liu et al., 2011; Zhang and Yao, 2001). The per capita net income
of farmers usually reflects the development level of agriculture in a
region. The increase in the per capita net income of farmers may
inhibit carbon emissions to a certain extent because agriculture has
less carbon emissions compared with other industries (Du et al.,
2010; Omri, 2013). Therefore, the driving factor variable, which is
measured by per unit GDP and per capita income of farmers, has
little effect on carbon emissions.
Pressure has a significant impact on carbon emissions. Accord-
ing to the results, the path coefficient is 0.687. The carbon emission
per unit of energy consumption is directly related to carbon
 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712 705

Table 4
Discriminant validity of DPSIR model.

Region Factor Driving force Pressure Response State

Nationwide Driving 0.989

Pressure 0.112 0.839
Response 0.778 0.218 0.787
State 0.321 0.249 0.638 1
Northeast China Factor Driving force Pressure Response
Driving force 0.980
Pressure 0.571 0.852
Response 0.910 0.558 0.861
North China Factor Pressure State
Pressure 0.847
State 0.644 1
East China Factor Impact Pressure Response
Impact 0.987
Pressure 0.319 0.720
Response 0.174 0.583 1
Northwest China Driving force Impact Pressure Response
Driving force 1
Impact 0.537 1
Pressure 0.388 0.319 0.917
Response 0.043 0.389 0.246 1
Southwest China Factor Driving force Pressure Response State
Driving force 1
Pressure 0.212 0.869
Response 0.001 0.697 0.885
State 0.211 0.452 0.22 1
Central and southern China Factor Driving force Pressure State
Driving force 0.993
Pressure 0.409 0.813
State 0.476 0.582 1

Note: The lower triangle is correlation coefficients between all variables and the diagonal is the square roots of AVE.

Table 5
Structural path estimates for DPSIR model.

Region DPSIR factors Influence coefficient Cronbach's Alpha Construct reliability AVE

Nationwide Driving 0.064 0.978 0.989 0.978

Pressure 0.687 0.892 0.905 0.704
Response 0.240 0.707 0.827 0.619
State 0.239 1.000 1.000 1.000
Northeast China Driving force 0.118 0.96 0.98 0.961
Response 0.690 0.902 0.913 0.725
Pressure 0.488 0.826 0.895 0.741
North China Pressure 0.786 0.908 0.927 0.718
State 0.225 1.000 1.000 1.000
East China Impact 0.129 0.974 0.987 0.975
Pressure 0.704 0.742 0.755 0.519
Response 0.332 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
Northwest China Driving forces 0.232 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
Impact 0.140 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
Pressure 0.715 0.94 0.955 0.841
Response 0.243 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
Southwest China Driving forces 0.162 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
Pressure 0.854 0.841 0.902 0.755
Response 0.123 0.727 0.878 0.783
State 0.203 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
Middle-south China Driving forces 0.206 0.986 0.993 0.986
Pressure 0.792 0.550 0.789 0.660
State 0.129 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001

emissions, and the fossil energy and coal consumption are the main
influential factors. The greater the proportion of coal consumption
to the total energy consumption, the greater the total amount of
fossil energy consumption; the greater the proportion of fossil
energy to the total energy consumption, the higher the carbon
emissions. The influence coefficient between the state and carbon
emissions is 0.239, indicating that the state has a significant posi-
tive impact on carbon emissions, which is mainly manifested in the
results demonstrating that the larger the urban population, the
higher the carbon emissions. In addition, response, whose influ-
ence coefficient is 0.240, has a certain influence on carbon
emissions. It shows that the green rate of built areas, the centralized
treatment of urban sewage treatment plants and the comprehen-
sive utilization of industrial solid waste have not reached the ex-
pected effect, and carbon emissions are not controlled by the
response index.
4.3. Influential factors of carbon emission from the regional
perspective
On a regional scale, the relationships between the driving factor,
pressure, state, impact, response and carbon emissions are different
706 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712
from that at the national scale. Moreover, considerable differences
are observed among the regions. In terms of driving factor, the
northeastern, northwestern, southwestern and southern regions
have a significant influence on carbon emissions, and the influence
coefficient is generally higher than that of the national level, which
are 0.118, 0.232, 0.162 and 0.206, respectively (Table 5 and
Fig. 2a). However, from the direction of the influence coefficient
and the absolute value, the driving factor of these regions has a
different degree of influence on carbon emission and direction of
influence. In the northeastern, northwestern and southwestern
China, the driving factor has a slight inhibition on carbon emissions,
whereas the central and southern regions show a significant posi-
tive effect. The cause of this phenomenon may be the geographic
location of the region and its stage of economic development. The
resource endowment conditions of the central and southern region
are rich and abundant; thus, economic development is dependent
on the resources; whereas in the northeastern, northwestern and
southwestern regions, the environment is relatively fragile, and
under the national macro strategy, it is highly prioritised for envi-
ronment preservation. Therefore, dependence on energy con-
sumption is decreased. For example, the iron and steel, nonferrous,
petrochemical, chemical and building material industries, which
use mineral resources as energy have become pillar industries in
the central and southern regions due to the rich coal, nonferrous
metal and other mineral resources, thereby directly affecting the
local carbon emissions (Feng et al., 2012; Tang et al., 2017a,b). For
example, Hunan Province, which is commonly known as the home
of nonferrous metals, currently maintains a relatively high capacity
in the production of 10 nonferrous metals (HEIC, 2018). Its pro-
duction of hard alloy, silver, antimony, bismuth and fluoride salt
ranks first in China. The added value in the nonferrous industry
reached 77.648 billion RMB in 2017 due to its copious reserves of
resource (HEIC, 2018). In addition, according to the directives of
'Policy Measures to Promote Economic Benefits from Structural
Adjustment in Nonferrous Metals Industry' released by Hunan
Province, the nonferrous industry is expected to achieve the target
of 700 billion yuan by 2020. Furthermore, in the context of eco-
nomic globalisation, the tide of international industrial transfer is
strengthening the industrial transfer in the developed coastal areas
of China, and the central southern region has become the main area
of industrial transfer in the East with its superior resources and
geographical location (Chen, 2002; Wang and Guan, 2010). At
present, the ‘middle triangle’ has been formed, which is based on
Wuhan City Circle, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group and
Poyang Lake City Group (Fang et al., 2005). Therefore, the con-
sumption of resources increases considerably, which results in the
relentless increase of carbon emission in recent years. In northwest
and southwest China, enterprises focus on industrial restructuring
and upgrading due to the significance of ecological conservation.
These regions are important areas of windbreak, sand fixation and
water conservation in China. Moreover, the awareness of ecological
and environmental protection is rising amongst the public due to
the rapid growth of household wealth and ecological deterioration.
Thus, the adjacent provinces in western China exhibit cluster ef-
fects of low carbon emission intensity and can have the fastest
adjustment to reach a balance between carbon emission intensity
and energy mix (Dong et al., 2016).
The pressure index has a significant positive impact on carbon
emissions in all regions of the country (Table 5 and Fig. 2b). The
influence coefficients of northeastern, northern, eastern, north-
western, southwestern and central southern China are 0.488, 0.786,
0.704, 0.715, 0.854 and 0.792, respectively. In the northern,
southwestern and central southern regions, and the influence co-
efficient is relatively low in the east and the north. Under China's
macroeconomic background and energy endowment, the energy
consumption structure based on fossil energy is socioeconomically
reasonable. It is an essential element of regional economic devel-
opment, which is directly related to carbon emissions, and thus has
a significant impact in all regions of the country (Xiao et al., 2013).
The northern, southwestern and central regions are the key areas of
fossil energy abundance and industrial development in China. The
impact of pressure on carbon emissions in these regions is more
significant than in other areas. Under the strategic background of
‘Revitalizing the Old Industrial Base’ proposed by the central gov-
ernment, the northeastern region actively plans the transformation
of economic development, eliminating a series of high-energy-
consuming enterprises and pursuing a good ecological environ-
ment. The energy consumption structure has been in control; thus,
no significant impact is observed on carbon emissions.
According to an analysis of loading coefficients (Table 5 and
Fig. 2c), the state in the model is commonly measured by the
population. In the southwestern, central and southern China, the
state indexes are measured by the number of urban population, and
the state variables in these two regions have a significant impact on
carbon emissions; the influence coefficients are 0.129 and 0.203,
respectively, indicating that the urban population in these two re-
gions is the main factor affecting carbon emissions.
The impact index has a significant impact on carbon emissions in
eastern and northwestern China (Table 5 and Fig. 2d), and the path
coefficients are 0.129 and 0.140, respectively. The contribution rate
of the first and secondary industries to the economy in these regions
is relatively high, and the demand for industrial development is the
main factor affecting carbon emissions. The eastern region of the
coastal area is the most developed economic area and gathers
numerous industrial and service industries in China (Wei et al.,
2014a). In 2016, the eastern region accounted for more than 50% of
China's economic proportion (National Development and Reform
Commission of China, 2017). This objective reality has made the
eastern region's industrial development an extremely important
factor affecting carbon emissions (Ouyang and Lin, 2015; Wu et al.,
2016; Zhou and Chan, 2017a, 2017b). Meanwhile, agriculture is the
most important pillar industry in the northwestern region. The
consumption of water, energy and fertilizer resources needed for
agricultural development has become an important factor in stim-
ulating carbon emissions in the western region (Yu, 2014).
Except in the northern, central and southern regions, the response
indicator has a significant impact on carbon emissions, but the in-
fluence direction is different from that found in previous studies. The
influence coefficients of the northeastern, eastern, northwestern and
southwestern China are 0.690, 0.332, 0.243 and 0.123, respectively.
According to the results of the model analysis, only the response in
the southwestern region plays a practical effect and effectively re-
duces carbon emissions, whereas the response in other regions has a
positive effect on carbon discharge. These indicators need further
study because the effects of the impact and response index are
different from those in previous studies.
4.3.1. Result comparison between national and regional carbon
emission
According to the results of the model and the above analysis, the
factors affecting carbon emissions vary at the national and regional
levels. This conclusion largely compensates for the shortcomings of
the independent analyses of the factors affecting carbon emissions
at the national or regional level in previous studies.
On the national level, the driving factor has a reduced impact on
carbon emissions. However, on the regional scale, the driving factor
has a significant impact on carbon emissions in areas except eastern
and northern China. China's economy has achieved remarkable
achievements since the reform (Wei et al., 2014b), but a series of
environmental problems has emerged in the process. CO2, as the
 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712 707

Fig. 2. The influence degree of different factors on CO2 emission in different regions of China mainland. (a) The influence degree of driving force on CO2 emission in different
regions. (b) The influence degree of pressure on CO2 emission in different regions. (c) The influence degree of state on CO2 emission in different regions. (d) The influence degree of
impact on CO2 emission in different regions. (e) The influence degree of response on CO2 emission in different regions.

representative of greenhouse gas emissions, is the most prominent. government has strengthened the control of carbon emissions at
In 2009, China committed to reduce carbon emission intensity of the national level to a certain extent, suppressing the driving effect
per capita GDP by 40%e45% by 2020 and set up a series of controls. of per capita GDP and other indicators on carbon emissions. At the
The policy of carbon emissions established by the Chinese regional level, each region has a different degree of implementation
708 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712
of the national policy, the economic development varies greatly in
the macro background and the degree of energy dependence is
different. Thus, the measurement index of regional influential fac-
tors and the influential coefficient of carbon emissions are different
from each other.
In the central and southern regions, the level of economic
development and urbanisation is lower than that in the north-
eastern, eastern and northern China. In the case of industrial and
consumption structures, the increase of per capita GDP, urban
employment rate and the annual net income of farmers is depen-
dent on high-energy-consumption enterprises (Liu and Wang,
2010). The influential factors in northwestern, southwestern and
northeastern China have a slightly reversed effect on carbon emis-
sions mainly because these areas are important strategic develop-
ment regions that have adjusted development models. Under the
influence of the macro strategy of the western development and
strategy of ‘the Belt and the Road’, the regional industrial structure
has been adjusted, thereby considerably promoting the develop-
ment of the regional economy and creating several jobs, resulting in
an improved employment rate of the city and an increase in the
population growth rate. In the northeastern region, under the
continuous promotion of the ‘Northeast Revitalization’ program,
several high-energy-consuming industries were eliminated, and
economic transformation and upgrading were pursued. Public
awareness of environmental protection has constantly increased,
and energy consumption has declined. The economic development
of northern and eastern China is fast, and the economic and in-
dustrial structures are in the transition period, mainly relying on the
third industry's contributions to the economy; thus, less carbon
emissions are affected by the influential factors.
In addition, the impact index has no significant impact on car-
bon emissions at the national level but has a weak and positive
impact on eastern and northwestern China at the regional level.
This result shows that the impact of industrial and agricultural
output values on carbon emissions has no significant impact on
most regions of the country, but the growth rate of industrial added
value in eastern China's GDP percentage, the ratio of industrial
output value to total output value and the percentage of agricul-
tural added value to GDP in northwestern China are increasing the
local carbon emissions to a certain extent. However, this conclusion
needs additional evidence support.
5. Conclusion
The study on the influential factors of carbon emissions involves
complex scientific problems, which include not only the scienti-
ficity of index selection and evaluation criteria but also the appli-
cability and rationality of research methods. In addition, these
problems have not yet formed a unified understanding. Several
existing studies have employed either the LMDI or STIRPAT model
to explore the influential factors of carbon emission. However, us-
ing a new model and exploring other possible factors are still
necessary to find additional valuable ways of finding the sources of
and reducing carbon emissions. In this study, the DPSIR method is
used to identify the influential factors of China's carbon emissions.
The empirical research, which is based on panel data and the PLS-
SEM model, reveals the path relationships between carbon emis-
sions and their influential factors. Conclusions of this research can
provide a scientific basis for the central or local governments in
formulating carbon emission reduction policies according to spe-
cific carbon emission mechanisms.
Influential factors of carbon emissions differ greatly between
the national and regional levels. Firstly, the main factors affecting
carbon emissions at the national level are driving factor, pressure,
state and response; whereas at the regional level, the impact index
of the east and northwest regions is also key driving factor, which is
indicated as the positive impact of industrial and agricultural sec-
tors values on the growth of carbon emissions. Secondly, the
driving factor has less influence at the national level, whereas at the
regional level, it has a significant impact on carbon emissions,
except for eastern and northern China. Thirdly, pressure has a sig-
nificant impact on carbon emissions at the national level and all
regions, but a significant difference exists in terms of direction and
significance level of the impacts. Fourthly, state has a significant
impact at the national level and the southwestern, central, south-
ern and northern China, whereas no obvious influence is observed
in other areas. In addition, response has a certain impact on carbon
emissions in regions except northern, central and southern China.
Analysis shows that considerable differences exist among the re-
gions of China, and their current situations of economic develop-
ment and development patterns vary, which results in the various
characteristics of carbon emission structure (Zeng et al., 2015).
Thus, to reduce carbon emissions comprehensively, governments
need to implement differentiated control policies combined with
regional development plans.
The composition indexes of latent influential factors in the
different regions vary. The driving factors in the whole nation and in
the northeastern, southwestern and central regions are the main
factors related to the per capita net income of farmers, urbanisation
and economic development level, such as GDP, and the urban
employment rate. The driving factors in the northwest region are
mainly represented by the population growth rate, which indicates
that economic growth in most areas is the key factor of carbon
emissions. The total population in northwestern China is the main
influential factor of carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the energy struc-
ture based on coal and fossil fuel consumption is an important mea-
sure of the pressure system at the national and regional levels. The
population density in the southwest is also one of the main indexes of
the pressure system, which shows that the population density in the
southwest is an important variable affecting carbon emission.
In general, urbanisation and the level of economic development
are the main driving forces of carbon emissions. The main pressure
indicators include energy structure and intensity. Urban population
is the main influential factor of carbon emissions in the state indi-
cator, and the impact indicator is focused on the impact of industrial
and agricultural output values on GDP. The response indicator is
mainly composed of a series of comprehensive environmental
improvement measures adopted by the government. With use of the
DPSIR model and the PLS-SEM method, a series of measure indexes
under the DPSIR model is found to affect carbon emissions at the
national and regional levels in varying degrees. With the rapid
development of urbanisation, human living standards have been
improved to different degrees. Hence, humans have started to pur-
sue enhanced material living standards, thereby increasing the de-
mand for high-energy-consuming industrial products, such as
automobiles (Zhou et al., 2017). In the current energy structure of
China, fossil energy still dominates. By the end of 2015, non-fossil
energy accounted for only 12% of the total energy consumption;
thus, the carbon emissions of energy consumption also increased
(Bai et al., 2015; Du et al., 2010). According to the Statistical Yearbook
of China 2016, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2016 was
3.7 tons of standard coal/$10,000 at 2015 dollar and exchange rates.
It is 1.4 times the average energy intensity of the world in 2015 and
2.1 times the average for developed countries. A consensus has been
reached that a significant positive correlation exists between heavy
industries and carbon emissions (Chen, 2009; Gao et al., 2015; Liu
et al., 2007; Tang et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2017). Related literature
shows that the increase in the share of tertiary industry and eco-
nomic growth play significant roles in curbing carbon emission in-
tensity; thus, it may be an effective way to drive economic
 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712 709

development by improving tertiary industries with low resource achieving economic growth and reducing carbon emissions,
consumption and high value added, such as the finance and infor- thereby promoting China's green, low-carbon economy.
mation sectors (Huang et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2014). An empirical The country should continue to improve the level of urbanisa-
analysis also reconfirmed that the service industry is a key driver for tion and control energy demand and consumption. The govern-
curbing industrial carbon emissions (Hao et al., 2015; Liao and Wu, ments should vigorously develop green urban buildings; actively
2011). In the face of growing environmental problems, the local promote the use of clean energy, such as natural gas, nuclear and
government has adopted a series of measures to adjust energy solar energy; promote the transformation of urban energy con-
structure and reduce energy consumption. However, the measures sumption structure and reverse the current coal-based consump-
have been effective only in some areas and proved futile in other tion situation. Moreover, governments should improve the
regions due to various reasons, such as the path dependence of the awareness regarding low-carbon environmental protection for ur-
regional economic development. According to the above analysis, ban residents and advocate a green, low-carbon lifestyle.
policy recommendations are as follows.
China should reduce the proportion of heavy industries, actively
Acknowledgments
develop high and new technology industries and gradually increase
the proportion of the service industry. Meanwhile, the government
The authors are grateful for MOE (Ministry of Education in
should vigorously develop low-energy-consumption and high-
China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (No.18YJC840041),
technology and environmental protection industries, particularly
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51478025)
tourism and information and technology, and further enhance
and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.
support to the service industry in terms of policies, technologies,
71420107025; No. 71471008; No.71771010). The authors gratefully
talent and funds. Deepening the adjustment of industrial structure
acknowledge the support of Beijing Key Laboratory of Emergency
and exerting the restraining effect of energy efficiency on the car-
Support Simulation Technologies for City Operations. Besides, the
bon emissions of the third industry are also necessary.
authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for insightful com-
At present, China's economic growth is still at the expense of
ments that helped us improve the quality of the paper.
excessive energy consumption (Wei at al., 2018b; Yu et al., 2013;
Zhang et al., 2016). Therefore, with the premise of maintaining
stable economic development, reducing energy intensity, particu- Appendix
larly in the energy-intensive industries such as manufacturing,
mining, power and transportation industries, is important to

Table 1
Mean, STDEV, T-Values, P-Values of Path Coefficients

Original Sample (O) Sample Mean (M) Standard Deviation (STDEV) T Statistics (|O/STDEV|) P-Values

Driving / Carbon 0.064 0.064 0.024 2.632 0.009

Pressure / Carbon 0.687 0.688 0.017 39.676 0.000
Response / Carbon 0.239 0.239 0.036 6.590 0.000
State / Carbon 0.240 0.240 0.023 10.528 0.000

Fig. 1. (a) Estimation Results of Path Coefficients. (b) Statistic Significance.

Note: The figures are derived from the estimation results by SmartPLS. Abbreviations of ‘Income_farm’ refers to ‘the farmers annual net income per capita’; ‘pgdp’ refers to ‘GDP per
capita’; ‘CO2’ refers to ‘the volume of CO2 emission’; ‘popu_urba’ refers to ‘Urban population’; ‘carb_pener’ refers to ‘Carbon emission per energy consumption’; ‘consumer_coalra’
refers to ‘the ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption’; ‘consum_foss’ refers to ‘total fossil energy consumption’; ‘consum_fossra’ refers to ‘the ratio of fossil fuel in
total energy consumption’; ‘grspacera’ refers to ‘Ratio of green space’; ‘treaswwage’ refers to ‘the ratio of centralized treatment of urban sewage’; ‘utilsolodwast’ refers to ‘the ratio of
comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste’.
710 Y. Wei et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 212 (2019) 698e712

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