Airport Terminal Area Capacity Calculation Based on

Supply and Demand Balance of Service Resources

奇锋 牟
Civil Aviation Flight University of China
Liming Zhang (  tensionming@163.com )
Civil Aviation Flight University of China
Ce Fang
Civil Aviation Flight University of China
mingjie Li
Civil Aviation Flight University of China
xiaolei feng
Civil Aviation Flight University of China

Research Article

Keywords: Predictive model, Airport, Terminal area, Supply and demand balance, Simulation

Posted Date: April 20th, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1505284/v2

License:   This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read
Full License

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Abstract
To effectively predict the hourly capacity of the airport terminal area, i.e., to measure the maximum number
of aircraft that can receive air traffic services in a sector simultaneously under the condition that the capacity
is known, this study proposes a model to calculate the terminal area capacity based on the perspective of
service resources. Firstly, the supply and demand relationship between the terminal area capacity and service
resource consumption was analyzed based on the configuration of the terminal area route network, traffic
flow characteristics and airspace safety, and security capacity requirements. Secondly, by defining a flight
service probability matrix, a demand service time model and a maximum available service time model for the
terminal area were developed. Based on the balance between the supply and demand of service resources, a
model was constructed to forecast the capacity of the terminal area. Finally, the validity of the model was
verified by simulation. The example results indicated that the difference between the limit and correction
capacities obtained from the model calculations and the simulation results is lesser than 0.3 vehicles/hour.
Both the results are consistent with the actual operation, thus proving the validity and reliability of the
calculation model used in this study. It was also found that when the capacity is known, the model can
calculate the maximum number of aircraft receiving services simultaneously within the terminal area at peak
times. These findings suggest that the proposed model can provide a theoretical basis and reference for
terminal area sectoring and traffic alerting.

Introduction
As an important coupling area of the air transport network, the airport terminal area's capacity constraints
and lack of service coverage are the main reasons for the creation and spread of flight delays [1]. Air traffic
flow management is currently the most effective solution to reduce flight delays, ensure air traffic safety, and
to ease the workload of air traffic controllers [2,3]. When implementing air traffic flow management, an
accurate and effective assessment of the terminal area is its main task and a prerequisite. Therefore, the
study of the terminal area’s capacity calculation methods is of great importance for the safe, smooth, and
efficient operation and management of airports and airspace.

Presently, domestic and international research on terminal area capacity calculation methods are mainly
divided into three categories: mathematical model construction and calculation, rapid computer simulation,
and air traffic controller load analysis method. Mitchell J et al. studied the maximum capacity model of
airspace airways by analyzing the geometry of sector airspace and stochastic weather generator using the
maximum-flow/minimum-cut method [4]. Janic M et al. conducted a capacity assessment based on
controller workloads and studied their impact on airspace capacity from three perspectives namely; control
procedures, spacing regulations, and service rules [5]. Kageyama K et al. used computer simulation
techniques for modeling based on a controller workload capacity assessment model after redefining the
route structure [6]. In China, Dong Xiangning et al. analyzed the assessment methods of controller workload
and constructed a new capacity assessment model for terminal areas by improving the capacity assessment
model for air traffic controllers' workload [7]. Based on the theory and method of flow decomposition barrier,
Li Yinfeng et al. established a mechanism analysis model to study the impact of terminal area capacity
under multiple operation scenarios [8]. Shen, Li-Nan, et al. included the level of delay as an influencing factor

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in the assessment of terminal area capacity and developed a mathematical calculation model between flight
delays and the number of aircraft [9]. Using the maximum-flow/ minimum-cut method and an improved
genetic algorithm, the sizes of the terminal area capacity under military activities were compared and
analyzed by Huang Haiqing et al. [10]. Peng Ying et al. combined deep learning with terminal area traffic
prediction and proposed a multi-input deep learning model while considering weather characteristics [11].
Mao Limin et al. considered the influence of convective weather and constructed a terminal area prediction
model based on the random forest method [12].

The traditional mathematical model to measure the terminal area capacity is constructed from one or more
influencing factors, which are used as constraints and sets the corresponding objective function to calculate
the capacity [13–15]. Different mathematical models consider different influences, which lead to a high
degree of variability between models. Although it improves the accuracy of calculating the capacity of the
terminal area in a given scenario to a certain extent, it also increases the complexity of the operation in the
capacity assessment process. With regards to the model variables, most existing mathematical models
utilize stochastic factors such as weather as a constraint variable. Less consideration has been given to the
balance between supply and demand of service resources, and the impact of service resources on the
terminal area’s capacity has been ignored.

Therefore, this study proposes to analyze the operational environment of the airport terminal area and the
operational characteristics of the air traffic flow. By considering the supply and demand of air traffic service
resources, a mathematical calculation model for airport terminal area capacity forecasting based on the
balance between the supply and demand of service resources was established. In the empirical analysis, the
capacity of the terminal area of Hulunbuir Hailaer International Airport (ICAO: ZBLA) was calculated by using
statistical data such as the distribution of approaching and departing traffic flows, and the proportion of
route types in the terminal area of the airport. At the same time, the validity and reliability of the
mathematical calculation model were further verified using the Monte Carlo numerical simulation method.

Analysis Of The Relationship Between Terminal Area Capacity And

Service Resources
The airport terminal area is the transition area between the origin and destination of the entire air transport
process. Its role is to connect the route to the airport. For an airspace, its capacity size is the maximum
number of aircraft that can provide services in unit time; given a certain system structure (airspace structure,
flight procedures, etc.), control rules, and safety levels, while considering the influence of variable factors
(aircraft configuration, human factors, meteorological factors, etc.) [1]. The acquisition of maximum capacity
is predicated by the timely departure from the airspace of the aircraft that enters the terminal area
continuously for service. This allows for the release of resources for service in that area. In a terminal area,
the demand side refers to the aircraft performing control services within the terminal area and the supply side
refers to the route resources and the controller's service resources. A model of the service flow in the terminal
area is illustrated in Fig. 1.

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The airspace of the terminal area consists of approach control airspace and tower control airspace. The
airspace is delineated by two control boundary lines as illustrated in Fig. 1. The control boundary line is a
virtual spatial boundary. It indicates the location of the transfer of control for the current airspace service
resources’ occupancy and release. When an aircraft enters the control area, it means that the aircraft starts to
occupy the service resources of that area. The release of resources occupied by an aircraft is indicated as
soon as the aircraft leaves the control area through the service. Hence, the two virtual boundaries, therefore,
constitute the boundaries for the transfer of the control services.

The consumption of resources during flight is not only a drain on fixed resources such as airways but also on
the resources of air traffic control services. The need for control services arises from aircraft that enter the
terminal area to conduct missions. This places the controllers under physical and psychological stress while
providing services [16,17]. The physical stress of operating can be translated into time. The time spent by the
controllers relieves their stress and fulfils their control tasks. Furthermore, the psychological pressure
determines the number of aircraft that the controllers can safely handle at peak times. However, the value is
fixed for a certain period of time. The value depends on the workload that controllers can be undertaken and
the number of aircraft operating safely in the terminal area. According to the rules on air traffic management
for civil aviation (CCAR-93TM-R5), the number of aircraft receiving air traffic control services simultaneously
in the sector should not exceed the number of aircraft that can be safely handled during peak times.
Consequently, the higher the overall capacity of the controller, the greater is the number of aircraft that can be
serviced during peak times. This also results in a higher volume of air traffic being accommodated, and in
turn increases the maximum terminal area capacity.

Mathematical Model Construction

2.1 Model Assumptions
This study examines the approach and departure capacity of the terminal area for a single airport. There are
several constraints that affect the terminal area capacity, and the definition of the terminal area capacity
varies according to different constraints. It is defined according to the mathematical model developed in this
study. The maximum number of aircraft that can be served by the terminal area per unit time by balancing
the supply and demand of service resources is based on the control of the supply of services at an
acceptable level. Previous studies [10,12] have included some of the influencing factors as one of the
constraints. The construction of a mathematical model makes the computational model more relevant to the
actual operating scenario. However, the various influencing factors are potential risks in operation and their
occurrence are random. The complexity of the terminal area structure also limits the accuracy of the model
results. In this study, a mathematical model to calculate the terminal area capacity under the balance of
supply and demand of service resources was established by simplifying the constraints and operation
methods, and by introducing the relationship between supply and demand of service resources in the
terminal area. To build the model, the following assumptions were made.

(1) The separation between any two approaching and departing aircraft is greater than the minimum flight
separation used by the control area in which they are located.

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(2) When the terminal area is in service, it is not possible to provide services on another aircraft if service is
still being provided to the other aircraft.

(3) Requests for service from aircraft to the terminal area are continuous. Moreover, the number of aircraft
performing services in the terminal area is kept no greater than the number of safely handled aircraft.

(4) Each aircraft follows a planned route. There will be no deviations or changes in the planned route for
each flight.

(5) Aircraft of the same type experience an equivalent flight time on the same routes.

2.2 Model Construction

The assumed capacity of the airport terminal area is Capacity. The routes within this area are connected to
the flight paths and the control transfer points. There are i routes in the terminal area, which is denoted as R i.
The moment when the approaching or departing aircraft f j enters or leaves the terminal area is denoted by
IN OUT
tj and tj , respectively.

The terminal area service procedures for aircraft f j are as follows. The aircraft f j flies from outside the
IN
terminal area at time tj over the transfer of the control point into the control area. It takes up a part of the
service resources from moment tIN
j and flies along the planned route R i. The flight leaves the control area at
time tOUT
j by flying over another transfer of control points. The service resources occupied by aircraft f j are
immediately released at this moment. To distinguish between different situations of service resource supply
and demand, three types of mathematical models are developed in this study: demand model, supply model,
and capacity solution model.

(1) Demand Model

The main object of the demand model is the aircraft that enters the terminal area for service. The
approach/departure option model and the terminal area route utilization accumulated by the aircraft
operations are represented below.

ARR
∑ fj
A:D =
∑ f DEP
j

a1 + a2 + . . . + an = ∑ a n = 1, (n < i)
2

d1 + d2 + . . . + di − n = ∑ di − n = 1, (n < i)
3
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In the formula, A is the proportion of the approaching aircraft f ARR to total traffic. D indicates the proportion
of the departing aircraft f DEP to the total traffic. a n denotes the usage rate of the th approach route. d i − n is
the utilization rate of the (i − n)th departure route. The terminal area has routes, in which there are inbound
routes and i − n outbound routes.

By classifying all aircraft f j performing services into k categories and using Ii , k to indicate the proportion of
each type of aircraft on different routes.

Ii , 1 + Ii , 2 + . . . + Ii , k = ∑ Ii , k = 1
4
In Eq. 4, Ii , k indicates the proportion of aircraft of category k in the ith service route of the terminal area to
the total number of service aircraft of that route.

The results of the above mathematical calculations were used to construct the flight mission service
probability matrix P ik.

( )( )
S1 I1 , 1 I1 , 2 ⋯ I1 , k
S2 I2 , 1 I2 , 2 ⋯ I2 , k
P ik =
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮
Si Ii , 1 Ii , 2 ⋯ Ii , k

( )
p 11 p 12 ⋯ p 1k
p 21 p 21 ⋯ p 2k
P ik =
⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮
p i1 p i2 ⋯ p ik

6
In Eq. 5, R i represents the probability of an aircraft selecting the ith service route in the terminal area. In Eq. 6,
p ik indicates the proportion of category k aircraft on route i to the total number of aircraft for service in the
terminal area.

IN OUT
The passage of aircraft f j through the terminal area produces two moments tj and tj . Therefore, the
flight expectation T ki for each type of aircraft in different routes can be calculated from the statistics of the
moments generated by the aircraft.

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 k
(
∑ tf k
i
OUT IN
− tf k
i )
Ti =
∑ f ki

7
Where, f ki indicates that the aircraft is undergoing flight service on route i and belongs to the aircraft
k k
category k. If these two conditions are met, then f i is 1, otherwise, it is 0. The moment the aircraft f i enters
IN OUT
the terminal area is recorded as tf k . The moment when it leaves the terminal area is recorded as tf k .
i i

k
The expected value of the demand service time in the terminal area, E(T i ), is modeled as:

k
E (T i ) = ∑ pikT ki
8
(2) Supply Model

To reproduce the supply and demand of service resources in the terminal area, the supply model is modeled
in this study. The expected maximum length of service that can be supplied; T ser, is obtained by calculating:

T ser = s maxT cal

9
s max is the maximum number of aircraft that can be safely handled by the controller during peak times.
T cal is the duration of the capacity calculation (usually taken as 60 minutes).

(3) Capacity Solution Model

The calculation of the terminal area capacity is based on the premise that the supply and demand of service
resources are balanced. In other words, the maximum available service time is greater than or equal to the
expected service time required. In terms of numbers, this means that the number of aircraft being served in
the terminal area simultaneously is less than or equal to more than the controller can safely handle during
peak times. The capacity solution model can therefore be expressed by the following equation:

T ser ⩾ E(T ki)Capacity

10
Consider that the provided control service cannot be constantly busy and that a utilization factor needs to be
added to limit it. The corrected model to calculate the terminal area capacity based on the balance between
the supply and demand of service resources is then expressed as follows:

k
uT ser = E(T i )Capacity

11

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In Eq. 11, u is the utilization factor. It represents the ratio of the total length of the aircraft thar receives
service in the terminal area per unit time to the length of the time that the terminal area is open. When u is
equal to 1, the resulting capacity is the ultimate capacity. Furthermore, when u takes values in [0, 1), the
resulting capacity is calculated as the corrected capacity.

Model Validation And Analysis

The terminal area of Hulunbuir Hailaer International Airport (ICAO: ZBLA) was chosen as an example for
capacity calculations. The terminal area at ZBLA is operated in a procedure control and dependent approach
mode. There are six approaches and departure routes in the area; three standard instrument approach routes
and three standard instrument departure routes.

Based on the analysis of the data collected in the field, the types of aircraft in this terminal area are classified
into three categories. The airport's takeoff and landing ratio is 6:4. The approach and departure procedures
KAGAK, TEPOD, and ELPUN are used in a ratio of 3:17:80. The percentages of aircraft types under different
approaches and departure procedures are presented in Table 1.

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 Table 1
Distribution of approach and departure procedure models and time of flight
Flight mission Procedure Aircraft classification Proportion(%) Ave. time(min)

Departure KAGAK A320、B738 53% 6.5

E190、CRJ、RRJ 30% 8

ATR、Y12 17% 7

ELPUN A320、B738 85% 11.2

E190、CRJ、RRJ 15% 14.4

ATR、Y12 0% 20.2

TEPOD A320、B738 84% 9

E190、CRJ、RRJ 16% 11.5

ATR、Y12 0% 16.2

Approach KAGAK A320、B738 53% 12.3

E190、CRJ、RRJ 30% 15.8

ATR、Y12 17% 22.2

ELPUN A320、B738 85% 7.8

E190、CRJ、RRJ 15% 10.1

ATR、Y12 0% 14.2

TEPOD A320、B738 84% 6

E190、CRJ、RRJ 16% 7.7

ATR、Y12 0% 10.8

The maximum number of aircraft that can be safely handled by controllers in the terminal area at ZBLA
under normal conditions is no more than four aircraft during peak times. Accordingly, the supply model
parameter s max is taken to be 4. In this calculation T cal is taken to be 60.

T ser = s maxT cal = 4 × 60=240min

Considering that the average workload of controllers in China should be below 70% of the maximum load.
The utilization factor u is therefore set as 0.7 in the calculation. The capacity solution model is then
calculated as follows:

When the utilization factor is not limited.

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 k
uT ser = E(T i )Capacity = (0.408 × 11.2 + 0.072 × 14.4 + 0.086 × 9 + 0.016 × 11.5 + 0.010 × 6.5
+ 0.005 × 8 + 0.003 × 7 + 0.272 × 7.8 + 0.048 × 10.1 + 0.057 × 6 + 0.011 × 7.7 + 0.006 × 12.3
+ 0.004 × 15.8 + 0.002 × 22.2)Capacity

240 × u = 9.905 × Capacity

When different values of the utilization factor are taken, the calculated capacity results vary. The larger the ,
the greater is the workload on the controller. Thus Capacity increases with greater as depicted in Fig. 3.
Depending on the range of values for , the working load within the terminal area is taken to be in the range of
0.1 to 1. The value of is chosen depending on the probability statistics of the workload of each control unit
during peak hours. The utilization factor for a busy workload situation for controllers in the terminal area
selected for this study is 0.7. The final calculation provides a recommended capacity of 17 vehicles/hour for
the operation of the ZBLA.

3.2 Model Validation

To verify the accuracy of the model calculation results, a numerical simulation program, using the Monte
Carlo method [18], has been established in this study. This procedure was also used to assess the capacity
of the terminal area of the ZBLA. The generation of a random aircraft flow is a critical step in the simulation
process [19]. The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the process of random aircraft flow generation in
the terminal area by cycling through multiple experiments. This approach not only ensures that the random
aircraft flow is generated to meet the actual operating conditions, but also makes the process random for
each cycle. The simulation flow for aircraft flow generation is illustrated in Fig. 4.

Based on the random aircraft flow generation method, a cumulative simulation of time is conducted based
on the occupation time of airspace resources obtained from aircraft calculations. There is randomness in the
results of the aircraft flow generation in the simulation model. To eliminate the random factor, the results of
the calculations were averaged for each cycle. The flow of the simulation program is illustrated in the
following diagram.

The specific simulation steps are as follows:

(1) Randomly generated aircraft within the terminal area

Each aircraft in the simulation needs to be randomly generated for operation in the airspace based on the
take-off and landing ratios for airport operations, the proportion of approach and departure procedures used,
and the proportion of aircraft types under different approaches and departure procedures. The flight distance
and the flight speed are also obtained based on a randomly selected approach, departure procedure, and
aircraft type, resulting in a flight time for that aircraft. Each cycle generates n aircraft for the first time to meet
the condition that no more than n aircraft are in command simultaneously. In other words, the limit case of n
aircraft sorties in the terminal area is maintained.

(2) Aircraft disappearance discriminations in the terminal area

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As the simulation progresses, the aircraft flies along the selected approach and departure procedures until
one of the aircraft reaches the end of the line. We then start counting from the disappearance of the first
aircraft until a cumulative time of 1 hour has elapsed.

(3) Simulation loop rule setup

When the aircraft that reaches the endpoint disappears, a randomly chosen aircraft is generated. This always
keeps n aircraft operating in the terminal area. Steps 2 and 3 are repeated until a cumulative time of 1 hour
has elapsed. After counting the total number of aircraft present in this cycle, the aircraft was stopped from
flying in this cycle.

(4) Simulation of the overall cycle rule setup

By repeating steps 1, 2, and 3, a set of the total number of cycles before arithmetic averaging of all results
was eventually reached. This arithmetic mean is the numerical simulation capacity of the obtained terminal
area.

In this simulation, the total number of cycles k of the simulation is set as 1000. The data utilized in the
simulation for the approach and departure traffic distribution, terminal area route selection ratios, and flight
times are the same as those used in the previous model calculations. The arithmetic mean of the 1000
simulations was used as the limit capacity of the terminal area. The final simulation results are presented in
Fig. 6.

As can be seen in Fig. 6 and Fig. 7, the results of the single cycles vary and fluctuate between [23,25]
vehicles/hour. This suggests that data such as flight sequencing and aircraft type parameters per unit time
have an impact on the capacity. During the simulation, the maximum value was 29 vehicles/hour, and the
minimum value was 20 vehicles/hour. Considering the randomness of a single cycle and the fact that the
number of flights in the terminal area is kept at full capacity throughout the simulation, the arithmetic mean
of all cycle results is used as the limit capacity for the numerical simulation.
3.3 Comparative analysis of results
The terminal area capacity of the ZBLA was measured using the two methods mentioned above as well as
the air traffic control simulator experiments. In the current operating mode, the results of both methods are
similar to the experimental results of the ATC simulator, with a correction capacity of 17 vehicles/hour. In
Table 2, the limit capacity differential is 0.291 vehicles/hour, and the corrected capacity differential is 0.203
vehicles/hour. Thus, the difference between the mathematical model and the numerical simulation is less
than 0.3 vehicles/hour. As a result, it can be verified that the results of the mathematical calculation model
constructed in this study have some validity.

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 Table 2
Results of Capacity Evaluation
Evaluation models Ultimate capacity(vph) Corrected capacity(vph)

Mathematical model 24.230 16.961

Numerical simulation 23.939 16.757

ATC simulator experiment - 17

3.4 Application Development

Most current scholarly research on airport traffic management treats Capacity as a constant value [19,20]. In
practice, the capacity of the terminal area changes as the operating environment changes. Traffic alerts for
air traffic controllers are mainly divided into flight flow alerts and workload percentage alerts. China uses a
workload of 70% as an alarm indicator. This type of alerting requires a lot of data counting and calculations
to obtain accurate results [21]. However, this does not facilitate timely alerting. Differences in time periods
and flight flow characteristics can result in different controller workloads and the maximum number of
aircraft to be handled safely. The time-varying nature of air traffic also makes it possible for the maximum
number of safely handled aircraft that a controller can provide services for under a safe workload that varies
each moment.

Therefore, the mathematical model developed in this study is improved to allow the workload factor to be
combined with the traffic alerting work. Provided that the controller's workload, the structure of the terminal
area, and the characteristics of the flight flow during the time period are clear, the maximum number of
aircraft that can be safely handled by the controller during peak hours can be calculated. Through research,
the relationship between the maximum number of safely handled aircraft and the capacity of the terminal
area during peak hours is calculated as follows:

k
E (T i )
s max = Capacity
uT cal

12

Assuming that the current peak hourly capacity of the terminal area is 19 vehicles/hour. The pattern between
the maximum number of safely handled aircraft and the capacity at peak hours is obtained by gradually
changing the utilization factor and by reducing the peak hour capacity. The results are presented in Fig. 8,
where the maximum number of safely handled aircraft exhibits a downward trend as the capacity of the
terminal area decreases. It indicates that in the absence of changes in the overall external environment, the
challenge of traffic in the terminal area has been shifted to the serviceability of the controllers. Based on the
above patterns, it is possible to target the scheduling of controllers for different traffic situations. It is also
possible to develop traffic control policies for terminal areas in different operating states according to the
service capacity of the terminal area.

Conclusion
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In this study, a new model to calculate the terminal area capacity from a service perspective was proposed.
When considering the supply model in equilibrium with the demand model, it was converted into a time
equilibrium problem. The ultimate capacity of the terminal area was calculated under the condition that the
terminal area is always kept within the maximum available service time constraint. To this a consideration of
the controller's workload to obtain the modified capacity of the terminal area as the final result was added.
Based on the experimental results obtained from this study, the main findings can be summarized as
follows:

(1) The mathematical model validation was developed using actual operational data from the Hulunbuir
Hailaer International Airport terminal area. The model has good applicability for capacity calculations in
airport terminal areas. Compared to other mathematical models, it is more versatile in the statistical analysis
of the underlying data and in the modeling and calculation of the operating rules of the terminal area.

(2) A numerical simulation model was constructed based on the Monte Carlo method to validate the
calculated results of the mathematical model. The results of the experiment indicated a positive agreement
between the two results. The range of values for the limiting capacity obtained from the simulation is [20,29]
vehicles/hour, which was normally distributed. The validity of the results of the developed capacity of the
calculation model was further verified. It showed that the model established in this study can accurately and
reasonably calculate the size of the terminal area capacity, providing theoretical support for the airport and
terminal area traffic management methods.

(3) The study also found that the service resources can be integrated with traffic alerting efforts. The
mathematical model was able to calculate the maximum number of aircraft that could be safely handled by
the air traffic controllers during peak times by inverse derivation. The maximum number of safely handled
aircraft is positively correlated with the terminal area capacity at four utilization factors.

(4) The effect of constraints such as weather was not considered in this study. Therefore, to make the results
closer to the real operating conditions, the model in this study needs to be further studied with respect to the
parameters of the formula.

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Figures

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Figure 1

Model of the service process in the terminal area

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Figure 2

Structure of the terminal area at ZBLA

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Figure 3

Calculation results of terminal area capacity at ZBLA

Figure 4

Flow chart of random aircraft flow generation

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Figure 5

Flow chart of Capacity Assessment for Numerical Simulation

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Figure 6

Numerical simulation results of terminal area capacity based on Monte Carlo

Figure 7

Distribution of simulation results

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Figure 8

Relationship between the maximum number of safely handled aircraft and capacity

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