The Thawing of Permafrost Due To

Climate Change

By Tiffany Wheeler

Environmental Studies Junior Seminar

Professor Wilfong

April 26th, 2024

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Introduction

Twenty-four percent of the Northern Hemisphere consists of a zone of icy ground called

permafrost. Permafrost is permanently frozen ground, typically common in high-latitude areas of

the Earth. It is the layer of frozen ground which is the deepest, and the oldest, having been frozen

over periods of decades or even centuries. Permafrost is characterized by having a temperature of

less than zero degrees Celcius for at least two consecutive years (Schuur et al, 2018). The

thickness of this layer may vary from tens of centimeters to several meters. Thus, permafrost is

vital in the physical structure of the ground in arctic regions and also affects what resources are

available to local organisms, including humans. Ecological processes are susceptible to the

changes between water and ice, hence why the melting of permafrost is such a significant issue

for the environment. The permafrost zone consists of a large carbon pool consisting of carbon

dioxide and methane, and when melted, may be released into the atmosphere as gas. This carbon

pool was formed from decades of decomposing organic matter trapped in the frozen soil and ice

that makes up permafrost. The current estimate of carbon contained in the permafrost zone is

around 1,600 petagrams (1 petagram=1 billion metric tons), this is twice the amount of carbon

contained in the atmosphere (Schuur et al, 2018). Permafrost is also a natural reservoir of many

microbes and organisms, including human pathogens (Yarzabal et al, 2021). When these

pathogens are released, they may have many detrimental effects on human health, possibly

introducing new diseases.

Permafrost is melting because of the rapid heating of the planet caused by climate

change. In 2018, at the US National Climate Assessment, it was concluded that the Earth's

climate is currently undergoing more rapid change than ever before in modern civilization,

largely due to human actions. Shifts in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases
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(carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons) can cause the climate of the

planet to shift as well. Since the industrial revolution, human activities have increasingly caused

these greenhouse gas concentrations to significantly rise, while decreasing the amount of sun

reflected off of the surface of the planet (Dietz et al. 2020). Declining sea ice, which typically

deflects some sunlight off of the Earth, reduces reflectivity and causes direct solar warming of

the Earth’s surface (Schuur et al, 2022). By 2017, the average global temperature had already

increased by 1°C, and in recent years we have approached 1.5°C of warming (Dietz et al. 2020).

While that may not seem like a lot, that one degree of warming has detrimental effects on the

Earth’s climate, one singular effect being permafrost degradation. The IPCC states that further

warming of the planet will lead to a 90% decrease in permafrost area by 2100 (Revich et al,

2022). The thawing of permafrost in arctic regions has an array of effects on the environment,

such as greenhouse gas emissions, infrastructure damage, negative impacts on wildlife, and

human health decline. The entire arctic ecosystem will be uprooted and reshaped due to the

deterioration of permafrost; permafrost is such a key player in these environments that the lack

thereof will have adverse impacts on the community as a whole.

Emissions

Permafrost releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as it melts. This frozen ground

contains large amounts of organic carbon, as well as carbon dioxide and methane (Graham et al,

2011). Soils in permafrost regions hold twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does, and this

carbon, when released, will have severe effects on global warming; 200 billion tons of carbon

will be released over the next 300 years if thawing continues. What is worse is that largely

unstable areas of frozen ground typically contain more carbon. For example, one million square
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kilometers of Siberia, Canada, and Alaska contain thick deposits of permafrost from the last ice

age that are made up of about 90% ice, which makes them even more vulnerable to warming.

These areas also contain 130 billion tons of organic carbon which is about the same amount of

greenhouse gases emitted by humans in a decade. Lakes and wetlands typically contain large

amounts of methane, which is even more potent than carbon dioxide, that is released when they

melt. When hills and mountains erode, they release significant amounts of carbon dioxide as well

(Turestsky et al, 2019).

The melting of permafrost will not just have drastic effects on the carbon cycle, but also

climate change feedback–it will metamorphize every aspect of the environment and its

dynamics. As Schuur et al (2022) puts it:

“The study of permafrost has grown beyond its geophysical roots to

more fully realize the interplay between geophysical, hydrobiogeochemical,

and ecological processes that define ecosystem function and the dynamics of

the carbon cycle”

The ground being thawed is not the only entity being affected; the entire system that

permafrost plays a role in is influenced by its degradation, the carbon cycle foremost of

all. Thus, if permafrost deterioration continues, the entire ecosystem will be thrown into

chaos; food webs will be thrown off, species interactions will shift, the layout of the land

will be altered, and many species will become endangered or possibly go extinct.

Vegetation has the ability to offset the emissions from melting permafrost (Schuur et al,

2022). Plants create their own food through a process called photosynthesis, which in

fundamental terms, intakes carbon from the air and outputs the oxygen that we breathe (Stirbet et

al, 2019). So, with enough vegetation in Arctic regions, carbon released from permafrost may be
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reabsorbed into local vegetation. However, permafrost melting has been shown to negatively

affect the rate of photosynthesis in Arctic vegetation (Wickland et al, 2006). Also, in poorly

drained regions, melting permafrost will cause excessively wet soil, and in well-drained areas,

will cause dry soil– both conditions are not ideal for many species of plants and will therefore

reduce vegetative cover in some regions (Wickland et al, 2006).

Infrastructure

The melting of permafrost has an array of effects on infrastructure due to the instability of

the ground that is thawed. Infrastructure is the physical and organizational facilities required for

the operation of society (Prudhomme, 2005). Frozen soil holds the landscape together, even if a

small amount thaws, the entire ground may collapse due to ice pockets melting. Several meters

of soil can become destabilized in as little as a few days. The land may also sink due to swelling

lakes and wetlands. This will cause roads to buckle, houses to collapse, and access to traditional

hunting sites to be blocked (Turestsky et al, 2019). These detrimental effects will cause a

dramatic shift in the lives and cultures of people who live in areas dominated by permafrost; they

will have to find new places to live and new ways to obtain food for their families. Figure one

below depicts areas of both rapid (red) and gradual (blue) thawing of permafrost. The numbers

denote areas significantly affected by this thawing process. Area one is in Alaska, where the

melting permafrost is causing landslides and mountain erosion. Area two is in Siberia, where the

permafrost containing thick layers of ground ice suddenly collapses as the permafrost melts.

Area three is in Canada, where thawing peatlands will release a significant amount of carbon into

the atmosphere. Area four is in Sweden, where there are swelling lakes due to melting, releasing

significant amounts of methane into the atmosphere (Turestsky et al, 2019). All four of these
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areas are experiencing major changes to their environments, whether it be drastic changes to the

landscape or poor air quality due to greenhouse gases being released. This is unfair to the

communities that live here who are likely disproportionately affected by climate change; they

may not contribute a lot to the warming of the planet, but since they live in an area that is

affected more drastically by climate change than other areas, they must experience the effects.

Figure 1. Map of Arctic regions experiencing permafrost deterioration, rapid thawing is

highlighted in red, and gradual thawing is highlighted in blue (Turestsky et al, 2019).

Rapid melting of permafrost may also cause the flooding of forests which will kill off all

of the trees in the area and lakes can disappear or be diverted–both of which are detrimental to

the carbon cycle, infrastructure, and natural resources (Turestsky et al, 2019). The economy of
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the Arctic region depends heavily on infrastructure such as supply roads, pipelines, fuel storage,

airports, and other buildings. When these roads or buildings fail due to the unstable frozen

ground, the economy of the region is jeopardized (Von Deimling et al, 2021).

Wildlife

Wildlife is affected by climate change and permafrost degradation both directly– by

physical changes to their environment, and indirectly– through human pressures and ecological

interactions (Van Hemert et al., 2015). The 2013 Arctic Biodiversity Assessment found that

climate change is the greatest threat to biodiversity in arctic regions and is more serious than any

other threat. The shift from water to ice and vice versa has considerable impacts on the behavior,

reproduction, and survival of arctic wildlife because of the difference in insulating capacity,

mechanical resistance, and light reflectance between the two forms. Some examples of effects

melting permafrost has on biodiversity include the collapse of structures used by wildlife for

reproduction, thermal erosion of wedges reducing waterfowl habitat, and effects on herbivore

populations (Berteaux et al, 2017).

Small mammals such as voles and lemmings must remain active throughout the winter

due to the inability to store enough fat to hibernate. To avoid predation above ground, they

typically burrow into the snow-packed layer of the Earth, where they also forage for food. This

layer is typically highly insulating, but only if the layer is thick enough to retain heat. When this

layer becomes too thin or when water percolates into the tunnels due to permafrost degradation,

those mammals lose their habitats and are forced to face extreme colds along with their

predators, greatly decreasing their chance of survival through the winter season.
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The snow layer may also protect subnivean plant species from herbivores and damage

from wind/snow (Berteaux et al, 2017). This vegetation may play an important role in carbon

sequestration, so it is vital that it is protected from predation. Also, due to the onset of variations

in the growing season, changes in vegetation availability may occur. Due to this, some wildlife

populations may find their food sources to be unavailable at times they depend on it (Van Hemert

et al., 2015). This completely alters the Arctic food web, as these species whose food sources are

not available will either have to find another food source– which they may be competing for with

a different species, or they will die of starvation– which may decrease the food source of their

predators, and leads to a domino effect where no species has access to the food source they

typically consume.

Another issue that arises with the transformation of ice into liquid form is that most

nonaquatic species use more energy swimming than they do walking, and many can not swim

long distances in cold water. So, the increase in water due to thawing permafrost will have

adverse effects on these species and may reduce their chance of survival, reproduction rates, and

distribution/spread. Many species also use frozen ground as a means for hunting and foraging

food, so without this platform, many will starve (Berteaux et al, 2017). Many migratory species

will also use this platform as a means of travel, and if it is not available to them, they may

become lost and repopulate a new area– or die off.

Human Health

Permafrost degradation may have an array of effects on human health as well. This is

because permafrost acts as a natural reservoir of many microbes and organisms, including human

pathogens. 4 × 1021 microorganisms are released from thawing ground annually and possibly
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come into contact with humans (Yarzabal et al, 2021). Many of these microbes disappeared from

Earth long ago, but now, they may re-emerge and possibly cause epidemics in Arctic regions. For

example, an outbreak of anthrax occurred in Siberia, which is a disease caused by bacteria that

live in the soil. There are over 200 Siberian anthrax cattle burial grounds in just the Russian

permafrost region alone, if these burial grounds are unearthed, a disastrous epidemic may spread

to many areas (Revich et al, 2022). Arctic regions already have a history of infectious diseases

that persist despite vaccination efforts, so another epidemic may have serious impacts on their

population. Also, many Arctic residents store their food below the frozen ground, so the

warming of this ground leads to spoilage, which may lead to food-borne illnesses such as

botulism (Parkinson et al, 2009).

As discussed previously, permafrost degradation may cause infrastructure to fail, and

failure may cause bodily harm to people who live in these regions. They may become ill due to

failing sanitational infrastructure, trapped in collapsed buildings that fail due to unstable ground,

or due to landslides caused by permafrost degradation (Parkinson et al, 2009). There are an array

of ways in which permafrost melting may cause harm to humans, which is why it is vital that

global warming is mitigated before more communities are disproportionately affected by climate

change.

Conclusion

Arctic regions have been experiencing the effects that 1.5 degrees Celsius has on the

environment. The warming of the planet has caused the very land they walk, build, and live on to

deteriorate and collapse. The melting of permafrost has caused tons of carbon to be released into

the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming even further by introducing larger quantities of
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greenhouse gases into the air. These gases also cause the air quality to worsen, largely affecting

those with respiratory diseases and disproportionately affecting communities that may not be

able to afford quality healthcare. These communities are also affected by the infectious diseases

that thawing permafrost reintroduces. Melting permafrost also affects infrastructure, which in

turn affects the economy and daily lives of Arctic communities. Also, wildlife is negatively

affected by thawing permafrost. They may lose their habitats and their food sources due to the

thawing of frozen ground. Melting permafrost has and will continue to uproot and morph Arctic

ecosystems and communities if nothing is done.

In the future, it is vital that more action is taken to mitigate the effects melting permafrost

causes, while also taking measures to prevent further melting. A way to accomplish this is

through policy change. If more people advocate for policy change, it is possible that more

environmental laws will be passed that may improve the current outlook on the environment.

Communities must come together and take whatever action is within their power to fight the

battle against climate change. Together, it is possible that we may reduce and possibly reverse

the effects of climate change. We owe it to the environment that we have caused harm to for so

long, along with all of the other species on the planet we tend to deem as less important than

humans. Melting permafrost is just one example of an adverse effect global warming has on the

Earth, there are an extreme amount of other effects that must also be taken into account and

advocated for.
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