Name: ______________________________Grade and Section: _________________

Subject: Mathematics 6 Teacher: ___________________ Score: _____

_____________________________________________________________________
Lesson: Quarter 4 Week 6 LAS 2
Activity Title: Prediction and Outcomes
Learning Target: Performs experiments and records outcomes.
Reference: 21st Century MATHletes Grade 6 Textbook pp. 342-355
MELC (M6SP-IVh-21)
LAS Writer: Edson James G. Partida
When dealing with probabilities, it is important to be able to identify all the possible outcomes.
The following are some of the methods that we can use.
Listing and Tree Diagrams
To calculate probability, we need to know all the things that can happen. A sample space is a list
of all the possible outcomes of an activity or experiments.
Example: Look at the menu. How many ways you can order snacks?
Menu
There is more than one way to solve this problem.
HAMBURGERS
Solutions:
Regular Burger
LISTINGS: Use R for regular, C for cheese, P for pizza, J for juice and T for tea.
Cheese Burger
Outcomes:
Pizza Burger
a. R,J b. R,T c. C,J d. C,T e. P,J f. P,T
Outcomes: BEVERAGES
The list shows there are 6 ways to order snacks.
Juice
Juice Regular Burger and Juice
Regular Burger Tea
TREE DIAGRAM:
Tea Regular Burger and Tea

Cheese Burger
Juice Cheese Burger and Juice In the diagram, we can see that, for each
Snacks
Tea Cheese Burger and Tea
of the three kinds of hamburgers, there
are two beverages choices. Thus,
Juice Pizza Burger and Juice
Pizza Burger 3 x 2 = 6, there are 6 ways to order
Tea Pizza Burger and Tea snacks.

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

We can also use theoretical probability to predict the results of a probability experiment. In
general, as the number of attempts in an experiment increases, experimental probability gets closer
to theoretical probability.
When we use a formula to find the probability of an event, we are finding the theoretical
probability.
Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that an event can occur divided by
the total number of outcomes.
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
Theoretical Probability (event) = 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

Example: A bag contains 12 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 4 yellow marbles. Find the theoretical
and experimental probabilities of getting a blue marble.

Method 1: Theoretical Probability

There are 8 marbles. Therefore, the number of favorable outcomes is 8. There are a total of 24
marbles. Therefore, the number of possible outcomes is 24.
Using the formula we have:
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
Theoretical Probability (event) = 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
𝟖 𝟏
P (blue marble) = P (blue marble) =
𝟐𝟒 𝟑
𝟏
Therefore, the theoretical probability of getting a blue marble is 𝟑.
Experimental Probability of an event is a ratio of the number of times an event occurs to the
total number of trials or times the activity is performed.
We can also find the probability of an event by doing an experiment. When we do this, we are
finding experimental probability.
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓
Experimental Probability (event) =
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔
 Experimental probability is used in most real-life situations when the probabilities cannot be
determined.
Method 2: Experimental Probability
Solution:
1. Take a marble from the bag.
2. Record the color and return the marble in the bag.
3. Repeat the process (at least 10 times).
4. Count the number of times a blue marble was picked (supposed it is 4).

𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓

Experimental Probability (event) = 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔
𝟐
P (blue marble) = 𝟓

Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen, where experimental probability is what

actually happens when we try it out. As more trials conducted, the experimental probability generally
gets closer to the theoretical probability.
Direction: For numbers 1-2, perform an experiment for each event, and list all the possible
outcomes.
1. Tossing 3 coins.
2. Tossing a coin and rolling one regular die (singular of dice).
For number 3, draw a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes of an event.
3. There are 6 roads leading from Antipolo to Cubao and 3 roads leading from Cubao to Batangas.
How many possible routes from Antipolo to Batangas through Cubao?

For number 4, make listings or diagrams of outcomes and tell the number of favorable outcomes and
chances using these listings and diagrams. Write each answer as a fraction in lowest terms and as
percent.
4. Two coins are tossed at the same time. To find all the possible ways the coins can land, copy and
complete the diagram below. Then answer the following questions.

H
T

Find the probability of:

a. getting two heads b. getting two tails
c. getting a head and a tail d. getting a tail on the second coin