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A new finding on the prevalence of rapid water warming during lake ice
melting 2 on the Tibetan Plateau

Article · August 2021

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 1 Short Communication

2 A new finding on the prevalence of rapid water warming during lake ice melting

3 on the Tibetan Plateau

4 Lazhua，Kun Yangb,c*，Juzhi Houa,c，Junbo Wanga,c，Yanbin Leia,c，Liping Zhua,c，

5 Yingying Chena,c，Mingda Wangd, Xiaogang Hee

a
6 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,

7 China

b
8 Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of

9 Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

c
10 Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of

11 Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

d
12 School of Geography, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China

e
13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of

14 Singapore, Singapore 117576, Singapore

15

16 Correspondence: yangk@tsinghua.edu.cn

17 Received 2021-01-21，revised 2021-06-23，accepted 2021-06-24

18 The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is home to about 1400 lakes with areas greater than 1
19 km2 [1]. A trend towards warmer and wetter conditions on the TP has resulted in
20 substantial expansion of the total lake area since the mid-1990s, which has attracted
21 widespread attention [1-3]. Meanwhile, climate change can alter lake ice duration and
22 lake mixing regimes [4]. For example, many lakes in the Northern Hemisphere have
23 shifted from states of continuous ice cover to intermittent ice cover in winter [5].
24 Similar changes have occurred across some parts of the TP, where observations show
25 that lake ice duration has increased in the north but decreased in the south during the
26 last two decades [6]. Some lakes on the southern TP have even transitioned from being
27 seasonally ice-covered to being ice-free all year. The loss of lake ice has substantially
28 increased winter and spring lake evaporation, thereby contributing to a reduction in lake
29 levels [7]. Therefore, lake level (or area) projections depend on the ability of lake
30 models to simulate lake ice processes in the context of medium- and long-term warming.
31 However, simulating lake ice processes in this region remains challenging with existing
32 models [8]. Here we use observations to reveal new insights into the thermal structure
33 during the ice-covered period of lakes on the TP, and evaluate the shortcomings of
34 current lake models. Our findings could help in improving lake models for this unique
35 region.
36 Most lakes on the TP are located in a harsh environment with limited lake water
37 temperature records. Here, we selected five representative lakes, representing a range
38 of salinities and climatic zones, to measure lake water temperature profiles. The
39 selected lakes are Lake Bangong Co, Lake Gongzhu Co, Lake Zhari Namco, Lake
40 Dagze Co and Lake Nam Co (see Figure 1f and Table S1 online). For Lake Nam Co,
41 water temperature at 3 and 83 m depths was collected using a Sea and Sun Tech CTD
42 multi-parameter probe, which operates in the range -2 to 36 °C with an accuracy of ±
43 0.001 °C, while temperatures at other depths were measured using the Minilog-II-T,
44 with an accuracy of ± 0.1 °C between -5 and 50 °C. Water temperatures at all layers in
45 the the other four lakes were recorded using HOBO water temperature probes (V2/U22-
46 001), which have a temperature range of -10 to 50 °C and an accuracy of ± 0.2 °C. Our
47 focus is on the thermal structure of the lakes during the ice-covered period, which was
48 identified with the MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) surface
49 temperature product (MOD11A1) [9]. As indicated in Figure S1 (online), most of the
50 MODIS LSWT (lake surface water temperature) data are missing during the ice-
51 covered period, due to the similar properties (e.g., temperature and albedo) of clouds
52 and lake ice/snow. The end date of the missing data from MODIS is consistent with the
53 date of the sudden drop in water temperature observed at four of the five lakes. This
54 time indicates the onset of wind-driven mixing after lake ice thawing (explained below).
55 Therefore, the time series of MODIS-derived daily LSWT can be used to identify the
56 lake ice phenology.
57 We find strong seasonal variations in the water temperature profiles of the five
58 lakes (Figure 1a-e). During summer, solar radiation unevenly heats the water column
59 in the vertical direction, resulting in a stratified thermal structure. The stratification
60 dissipates in October, after which time a more uniform vertical distribution of
61 temperature is observed. This occurs because the increased temperature gradient
62 between the air and lake surface, combined with strong winds, drives considerable
63 energy transfer from the lakes to the overlying air. This strong energy transfer leads to
64 a rapid decrease in surface water temperature. The resulting increases in density of the
65 upper layers and drives vertical convection that deepens the mixed layer. When the
66 lakes have been completely frozen, the vertical water circulation stops; weak thermal
67 stratification then develops and persists during winter. Overall, lake temperature
68 (except for the near-surface layer) does not change much when lakes are covered with
69 ice. When the lake ice disappears, wind-driven turbulence develops and promotes lake
70 vertical mixing.
71 In addition to the above thermal dynamics, high salinity has a significant impact
72 on the thermal structure of the lakes. Taking the high-salinity lakes Zhari Namco (14.8
73 g/L) and Dagze Co (18 g/L) as examples, these two lakes are not well-mixed in vertical
74 throughout the year (Fig. 1c, d). The high salinity causes stronger temperature
75 stratification. Neither the drop in autumn surface lake temperature nor the strong
76 turbulence driven by spring winds can eliminate this stratification [10].
77 We are particularly concerned about changes in water temperature near the surface
78 during the lake ice melting period (blue dashed boxes in Figure 1). We find that water
79 temperatures near the lake surface tend to increase rapidly during this time, except for
80 Lake Nam Co, while bottom water temperature increases very slowly during this period.
81 In Lake Dagze Co, the magnitude of increase in water temperature for the upper-most
82 layer beneath the ice even reaches 7−8 ℃. When the lake ice disappears, the surface
83 water temperature drops sharply. Similar warming during the late ice melting period
84 has also been reported in Ref. [11] for a small pond with an area of 0.015 km2 and a
85 maximum depth of 2.5 m on the TP. All observations indicate that the rapid water
 86 warming during the late ice melting is a widespread phenomenon in TP lakes, although
87 there are exceptions (e.g., Lake Nam Co). It remains unclear what conditions could
88 trigger the water rapid warming beneath the ice, although it has been suggested that
89 solar radiation penetrating the lake ice may play a role [11].
90 We find that the rapid warming under the lake ice is closely related to a temperature

91 threshold 𝑇𝜌 max (temperature at the maximum density of lake water), which is derived

92 from the salinity [12] (see Table S1 online). In the period of increasing ice thickness

93 and early melting, the lake water temperature is lower than 𝑇𝜌 max throughout the

94 water column, and water warming in each layer is consistent and slow. However, when

95 the lake water temperature exceeds 𝑇𝜌 max , rapid warming occurs in the upper layer of

96 the lake and slow warming occurs in the lower layer. Differences in the warming
97 amplitude of the upper-most water layer are determined by the time when warming
98 starts, which is constrained by a combination of lake depth and salinity. For instance,
99 the largest amplitude is observed in Dagze Co, owing to its shallow depth and high
100 salinity. However, the rate of warming is similar, suggesting a common control
101 mechanism. Based on these findings, the observed warming pattern can be explained
102 according to a conceptual model as follows.
103 In terms of the energy balance for deep lakes on the TP, the energy exchange
104 between the lake and the bottom sediment is very weak. Moreover, winter and early
105 spring runoff into the lake has a cold temperature but low volume, and thus does not
106 contribute to the lake warming. Therefore, a change in lake water temperature during
107 ice-covered periods is more dependent on solar heating and conductive cooling. The
108 energy budget and thermal structure during the ice cover period can be divided into
109 three phases.
110 Once the lake surface freezes over, lakes lose energy through conductive cooling
111 rather than turbulent fluxes, which significantly reduces the energy exchange. The
112 conductive cooling leads to thickening lake ice and further decreases the near-surface

113 water temperature. The water temperature beneath the ice is lower than 𝑇𝜌 max (Phase
114 One in Figure 2). When the lake ice begins to melt, increased solar radiation and
115 decreased lake ice thickness allow more solar radiation to penetrate through lake ice,
116 resulting in surface water warming and increasing density. Consequently, the surface
117 lake water sinks, promoting convective mixing, which causes a slow increase in water

118 temperature throughout the lake until the lake water temperature rises to 𝑇𝜌 max (Phase

119 Two in Figure 2). This solar heating process also occurs in Lake Nam Co, but here the
120 deep water has a high heat capacity, and the solar radiation penetrating through the ice

121 is insufficient to heat the entire lake to 𝑇𝜌 max (3.6 °C) before ice-break. Therefore, the

122 thermal structure of the Lake Nam Co remains in Phase Two throughout the ice-covered
123 period (Figure 1e). The above thermal evolution under the lake ice is a classic
124 component of lake thermal dynamics [13].

125 When the lake water temperature rises above 𝑇𝜌 max , Phase Three (Figure 2, blue

126 dashed rectangular boxes) starts. During this phase, the lake water near the surface
127 warms rapidly. Heat transfer from the air to the ice can promote ice melting, but the
128 water beneath the ice has a higher temperature than the ice and thus cannot obtain from
129 the air via heat conduction through the ice. Therefore, water warming during this period
130 is driven by solar heating rather than the ice-air temperature difference. During this
131 phase, solar heating further increases surface temperature and decreases density. Stable
132 thermal stratification forms, due to the inability of external forcing (wind) to mix the
133 lake water under the ice. According to Ref. [14], the water clarity of lakes on the TP,
134 as defined by the Secchi Depth, is high: the mean is about 5 m. Therefore, most of these
135 lakes are relatively transparent, allowing solar radiation to penetrate into deep layers.
136 Nevertheless, due to the exponential attenuation of solar radiation with depth, a large
137 proportion of solar radiation is absorbed in upper water layers, and the remainder in
138 deeper layers. This leads to a rapid rise in upper-layer water temperature. As the ice
139 layer gets thinner, the solar radiation intensity transmitted through the ice layer
140 exponentially increases, further accelerating the rise in the upper-layer water
141 temperature. Based on the proposed conceptual model, the rapid increase in lake water
142 temperature during the final stage can be explained by a positive feedback loop, i.e.,
143 lake ice melting – solar heating enhancement – increased water warming – accelerated
144 lake ice melting. As soon as the lake ice disappears, wind stress causes strong turbulent
145 mixing between the surface and the sub-surface layers, resulting in a sudden drop in
146 surface water temperature.
147 Why is the rapid warming of surface lake water during the late ice melting period
148 widespread on the TP? This is attributed to the particular climatic conditions of the TP.
149 First, due to its high altitude, the TP is cold enough to form lake ice; lakes at low
150 altitudes can form lake ice only at high latitudes. Secondly, the TP receives much higher
151 solar radiation in spring than other high-latitude regions, due to its low latitude (high
152 solar angle) and high altitude (thin air). In addition, there is not much snowfall in the
153 plateau hinterland during winter and spring. The limited snow-coverage and the low
154 lake ice albedo (<0.2) [15] allow more the solar radiation to penetrate the ice and be
155 absorbed by the water. Furthermore, some lakes on the TP have high salinity and

156 therefore a low 𝑇𝜌 max . Lake water temperature can easily exceed this temperature

157 threshold and enter the rapid warming path. However, lake depth is also an important
158 factor. If a lake (e.g., Nam Co) is too deep, it is difficult for the lake water temperature

159 to reach 𝑇𝜌 max . This could delay the rapid warming of the lake or even prevent it from

160 occurring. However, we cannot exclude that such a phenomenon could occur outside
161 the TP.
162 Our observations and interpretation clearly show the importance of solar radiative
163 transfer in lake ice thermodynamics on the TP, which is largely ignored in current lake
164 models (e.g., [8]). Moreover, lake-ice albedo values in these models are generally too
165 high for TP lakes [15]. Future improvements in lake models must consider solar
166 radiative transfer and the related extinction coefficient for lake ice, effects of salinity

167 on 𝑇𝜌 max , and lower values of ice albedo. Only models with a realistic representation

168 of these physical processes are likely to reproduce the observed rapid warming on the
169 TP; such models are essential to facilitate simulations of lake ice phenology and
170 prediction of lake area variability.
171
172 Conflict of interest
173 The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

174 Acknowledgments:

175 This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and

176 Research Program (2019QZKK0206) and the National Natural Science Foundation of

177 China (41701041, 41975125, and 41988101). The in-situ measurements of lake water

178 temperature for Lake Bangong Co, Lake Dagze Co and Lake Nam Co can be obtained

179 from National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (http://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/). The authors

180 thank all participants in the field collection of lake water temperature measurements.

181 Author contributions

182 Lazhu and Kun Yang led this research, conducted the analysis and drafted the
183 manuscript. Juzhi Hou, Junbo Wang, Yanbin Lei, Liping Zhu, Yingying Chen, and
184 Mingda Wang conducted field experiments. Xiaogang He contributed to data analysis
185 and paper writing.
186

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219
220 Figure 1 Locations of the five lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, and their seasonal variations
221 in water temperature at different depths. (a) Lake Bangong Co; (b) Lake Gongzhu Co;
222 (c) Lake Zhari Namco; (b) Lake Dagze Co; (e) Lake Nam Co. Grey areas indicate the
223 ice-covered period. Blue dashed rectangular boxes indicate rapid warming of lake water
224 near the surface. The horizontal dark red line represents the temperature at the
225 maximum density of lake water. The boundary of the Tibetan Plateau in (f) is based on
226 the 2500 m contour and national boundaries, using a data set provided by the National
227 Tibetan Plateau Data Center (http://data.tpdc.ac.cn)).
228

229 Figure 2 A conceptual model explaining the rapid warming beneath ice during lake ice

230 melting. At the end of Phase Two, the density is uniform and the temperature is 𝑇𝜌 max .

231 The width of the red arrows indicates the intensity of solar radiation.
232

233

234
235 Lazhu received Ph.D. degree from Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese
236 Academy of Sciences in 2017. Now, he worked as a postdoctoral fellow at Institute of
237 Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. His recent research interest
238 includes Tibetan lake hydrological model and remote sensing.
239
240
 241
242 Kun Yang is a professor of the Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua
243 University. He received Ph.D. degree from University of Tokyo in 2000. He became an
244 associate professor at The University of Tokyo in 2003. From 2007 to 2016, he has been
245 a professor at Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. His
246 research interest focuses on Tibetan hydrometeorology, land surface modeling, and data
247 assimilation.
248

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