UJM 7(2) (2019)

UNNESJournal of Mathematics
https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/ujm

MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SPREAD OF AVIAN INFLUENZA WITH

VACCINATION AND LOGISTIC GROWTH IN POULTRY POPULATION
Frida Anggraeni Setyowati, Muhammad Kharis, Tri Sri Noor Asih

Jurusan Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Gedung D7 Lt. 1, Kampus Sekaran Gunungpati, Semarang 50229

Article Info Abstrak

______________________
Article History:
Be accepted March 2019
Approved March 2019
Published November 2019
______________________
Keywords:
Avian Influenza
Vaccination
Logistics Growth
Equilibrium
Stability Analysis
_________________________________________________________________
Flu burung adalah penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus influenza tipe A. Virus
influenza tipe B dan C dapat diisolasi dari manusia dan sifatnya kurang patogen
dibandingkan dengan virus influenza tipe A. Dalam penelitian ini populasi manusia
dibagi menjadi tiga kelas yaitu kelas manusia rentan S(t), kelas manusia terinfeksi I(t),
dan kelas manusia sembuh R(t). Sedangkan populasi unggas dibagi menjadi tiga kelas
yaitu kelas unggas rentan Sb(t), kelas unggas terinfeksi Ib(t), dan kelas unggas
divaksinasi Vb(t). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh satu titik kesetimbangan
bebas penyakit (P0) dan satu titik kesetimbangan endemik (P1). Analisis kestabilan juga
telah dilakukan diperoleh R0<1 maka P0 stabil asimtotik lokal dan R0>1 maka P1
stabil asimtotik lokal. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa proporsi unggas yang
divaksinasi dan unggas terinfeksi yang dibakar memperkecil populasi unggas yang
terinfeksi flu burung sehingga dapat mencegah terjadinya wabah endemik.
Abstract
_________________________________________________________________
Avian influenza is a disease caused by influenza type A viruses. Influenza viruses types
B and C can be isolated from humans and are less pathogenic compared to influenza
type A viruses. In this study the human population was divided into three classes,
namely vulnerable human classes 𝑆(𝑡), infected human classes 𝐼(𝑡), and human
classes cured 𝑅(𝑡). While the poultry population was divided into three classes, namely
vulnerable poultry class 𝑆𝑏 (𝑡), infected poultry class 𝐼𝑏 (𝑡), and vaccinated poultry class
𝑉𝑏 (𝑡). Based on the results of the study, there was obtained a disease-free equilibrium
point (𝑃0 ) and one endemic equilibrium point (𝑃1 ). Stability analysis has also been
done to obtain 𝑅0 < 1, then 𝑃0 is stable asymptotic locally and 𝑅0 > 1, then 𝑃1 is
stable asymptotic locally. Simulation results show that the proportion of vaccinated
birds and infected poultry that are burned reduces the population of birds infected with
bird flu so that they can prevent the occurrence of endemic outbreaks.

How to Cite____________________________________________________
Setyowati F.A., Kharis M., Asih T.S.N. (2019). Model Matematika Penyebaran Flu
Burung dengan Vaksinasi dan Pertumbuhan Logistik pada Populasi Unggas. Unnes
Journal of Mathematics, 7(2): 1-12

© 2019 Universitas Negeri Semarang

 Correspondence address: P –ISSN 2252-6943
E-mail: frydhatya22@gmail.com e – ISSN 2460-5859
 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)
INTRODUCTION
Disease is an abnormal condition of the
body or mind that causes discomfort,
dysfunction, or difficulty with the person
affected (Bustan, 1997). Infectious diseases are
diseases caused by germs such as viruses,
bacteria, amoeba, or fungi that attack the human
body, including influenza, malaria, measles and
avian influenza. Non-communicable diseases
are diseases that are not caused by germs, but are
caused by physiological or metabolic problems
in the tissues of the human body, including
coughing, canker sores, and abdominal pain.
Infectious diseases can cause outbreaks in a
population. Outbreaks of disease over a short
period of time are called epidemics. If the
epidemic persists in a population over a long
period of time, it is called endemic (Padilah,
2017).
Avian influenza is an infectious disease
caused by influenza type A virus. Besides type
A, influenza virus also has 2 other types, namely
B and C. Type A attacks poultry and humans,
type B only attacks humans and type C attacks
pigs and humans. Type A is easily mutated and
highly pathogenic, while types B and C can only
cause mild pain and do not cause epidemics.
Avian Influenza has properties such as easy to
mutate or genetic modification, can agglutinate
red blood cells, viruses die easily outside the
body (unstable in the outside environment),
easily die by some disinfectants, potentially
transmissible to humans, and cause death.
Avian Influenza can naturally infect birds and
humans (Murwanti et al., 2013).
Avian Influenza has become a concern of
the wider community because it has killed many
victims both poultry and humans (Rahmalia,
2017). A report from WHO, at the beginning of
1918 an influenza pandemic outbreak had killed
more than 40,000 people, where the subtype that
was endemic at that time was the H1N1 virus
known as the "Spanish Flu". In 1957 the virus
mutated into H2N2 or "Asian Flu" causing
100,000 deaths. In 1968 the mutated virus
became H3N2 or "Hong Kong Flu" caused
700,000 deaths. In 1997 the virus mutated again
to H5N1 or "Avian Influenza" (Murwanti et al.,
2013).
Murwanti et al., (2013) stated that in
Southeast Asia there were many cases of bird
2
flu. Until June 6, 2007, WHO recorded 310
cases with 189 deaths in humans caused by this
virus, including in Indonesia as many as 99 cases
with 79 deaths. This is influenced by the
livelihoods of some of Indonesia's population as
poultry farmers, so Indonesia is vulnerable to the
spread of bird flu. In addition, the lack of
knowledge of some Indonesians about bird flu
also affected the rate of spread of avian
influenza.
In 2015 avian influenza in humans was
still prevalent in the world. Such cases can be
found in North Africa and East Asia. The most
severely affected country is China by
experiencing many strains of the virus that are
endemic and continue to expand. Information
published by CNN Indonesia states that cases of
avian influenza in the world still occur, although
the possibility of avian influenza risks attacking
smaller humans. Cases of bird flu continue to
occur in Asia and Europe, until now avian
influenza is still a threat to the whole world
(Damaryana, 2017).
In an effort to treat and prevent the spread
of bird flu from birds to humans, there are four
types of anti-viral drugs, namely amantadine,
rimantadine, zanamivir, and oseltamivir or
better known as tamiflu. The mechanism of
action of amantadine and rimatadine is to
inhibit viral replication, but these two drugs are
no longer effective to kill the bird flu virus which
is currently circulating widely. While the
mechanism of action of zanamivir and
acetamivir can stop the replication of the bird flu
virus (Chong & Smith, 2015). Vaccination can
reduce the risk of infection and inhibit the
production of viruses in poultry that are around
the epidemic in a less clean environment
(Martins, 2012). According to WHO in Hutapea
(2016), in December 2014 several research
centers and even universities in the world had
succeeded in finding vaccines for avian
influenza viruses, both vaccines for humans or
vaccines for poultry.
The mathematical model for epidemics is
a tool that can be used to consider strategies in
controlling the spread of disease. Mathematical
models can also help predict future epidemic
control so that it does not occur endemic.
Various kinds of epidemic mathematical models
for analyzing the spread of disease are SEI,
 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)
SEIS, SEIR, SI, SIR, SIRS, etc. (Siswanto,
2013).
The biological principle provides several
other requirements for P.F. Verhulst in 1838 was
the first person to point out the limits in the
previous growth model, rather than having to
ignore because it could cause the existence of
catatosprotic ambiguity that existed in the
Malthus model. The equation proposed by
Verhulst, called the logistical equation, which
until now the equation is still considered to be
closer to the reality of the field. This equation
based on the presence of species in the
environment will have a maximum population
(Iswanto, 2012).
Some researchers have conducted
research on mathematical modeling of the
spread of avian influenza including Siswanto
(2013). Analyze the SIR-SI model by assuming
that the human population is not constant and
the poultry population is constant. Whereas in
Hutapea (2016), the model studied paid
attention to vaccination controls in the human
population and the SI-SIIR model studied
assumed that every infected bird would die, but
every infected human could die or recover.
Kharis and Cahyono (2015), the model
studied is in the form of SIRS by assuming a
constant population. Vaccination is given to
vulnerable class populations. Research from
Tasmi and Nuraini (2016), the model uses the
Genetic algorithm method to optimize
vaccination and treatment with minimal costs.
The model assumes that the human population
and poultry population are not constant. In the
poultry population it is explained that
vaccination has a 100% success rate and a
recovered human population is likely to be
vulnerable again. Whereas in Rahmalia (2017),
determine the analysis of the model of the spread
of avian influenza in mixed populations. The
model assumes that humans who have been
infected have not mutated so that they cannot
transmit the disease to other healthy humans.
In this study, the author tries to complete
the modeling that has been developed by adding
several facts and assumptions. In addition,
researchers are trying to supplement case studies
into logistical growth in poultry and limit
vaccination studies only to poultry populations.
Based on the background above, the authors
3
take the title "MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF
SPREAD OF AVIAN INFLUENZA WITH
VACCINATION AND LOGISTIC
GROWTH IN POULTRY POPULATION".
The purpose of this study is to find out the
mathematical models that are produced. This
study is also intended to determine the
effectiveness of preventive measures carried out
on avian influenza viruses. The contribution of
this research includes adding and expanding
knowledge about mathematical modeling,
especially the model of avian influenza
transmission. The results of this study can be one
of the references in addressing the case of avian
influenza that occurred.
METHOD
The method used in this study is to
conduct literature studies from various sources
related to the problem so that an idea is found
on the basic ingredients of developing problem
solving efforts. From various library sources
which are the subject of study, a solution to the
problem was obtained. Next steps are problem
solving.
1. Establish a mathematical model for the
spread of avian influenza with
vaccination and logistical growth in
poultry populations.
2. Analyzing mathematical models that
have been compiled. Things that need to
be done as follows.
a. Look for model equilibrium points.
b. Determine the reproduction ratio
number (𝑅0 ).
c. Analyze the stability of the system's
balance point.
3. Create numerical simulations of model
solutions built using Maple 12 software.
4. Interpret the model solutions obtained.
DISCUSSION
The model to be discussed is the
mathematical model of the epidemic on the
spread of avian influenza from poultry to
humans by vaccination and logistical growth.
This model classifies the human population into
three class groups, namely Susceptible-Infective-
Recovery and poultry populations into three
class groups, namely Susceptible-Infective-
Vaccination.
 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

The transfer diagram can be seen in

Figure 1 and the meanings of variables and
parameters can be seen in Table 1 and Table 2.

𝜃𝑅

𝛼𝐼
𝑆 𝑆
𝜇𝑁 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏 + 𝛽2 𝐼 (𝛾1 + 𝛾2 )𝐼 𝜇𝑅
S 𝑁 𝑁 I R

𝜇𝑆 𝜇𝐼

𝜇𝑏 𝑆𝑏
𝑁𝑏 (𝐴 − 𝐵𝑁𝑏 ) (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )𝐼𝑏
Sb Ib
𝑆𝑏
𝛽𝑏 𝐼
𝑁𝑏 𝑏
𝛿𝑆𝑏

𝜇𝑏 𝑉𝑏
Vb
Figure 1 Diagram of Transfer of Avian Influenza Spread with Vaccination and Growth in Poultry Populations

Table 1 Meanings of Variables in the Because it is assumed that 𝛽2 = 0, 𝛼 = 0,

Mathematical Model dan 𝛾2 = 0 the system of differential equations
Variable Meaning can be written in System (1).
𝑁(𝑡) The size of human population at 𝐼𝑏
𝑆̇ = 𝜇𝑁 + 𝜃𝑅 − 𝑆(𝛽1 + 𝜇)
time 𝑡 𝑁
𝑆
𝑆(𝑡) The size of the human sub- 𝐼 ̇ = 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏 − (𝜇 + 𝛾1 )𝐼
population is vulnerable to 𝑁
𝑅̇ = 𝛾1 𝐼 − (𝜃 + 𝜇)𝑅 (1)
infection at time 𝑡
𝐼𝑏
𝐼(𝑡) The size of human sub-population 𝑆𝑏̇ = 𝑁𝑏 (𝐴 − 𝐵𝑁𝑏 ) − (𝛽𝑏 + 𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )𝑆𝑏
𝑁𝑏
infected at time 𝑡
𝑆𝑏
𝑅(𝑡) The size of the human sub 𝐼𝑏̇ = 𝛽𝑏 𝐼 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )𝐼𝑏
𝑁𝑏 𝑏
population recovered from the
𝑉𝑏̇ = 𝛿𝑆𝑏 − 𝜇𝑏 𝑉𝑏
disease at time 𝑡
𝑆+𝐼+𝑅 =𝑁
𝑁𝑏 (𝑡) The size of poultry population at
𝑆𝑏 + 𝐼𝑏 + 𝑉𝑏 = 𝑁𝑏
time 𝑡
𝑆𝑏 (𝑡) The size of the poultry population
Because 𝑅 = 𝑁 − (𝑆 + 𝐼) then System (1)
is susceptible to infection at time 𝑡
can be simplified to become System (2).
𝐼𝑏 (𝑡) The size of infected poultry sub- 𝑑𝑆 𝐼𝑏
population at time 𝑡 = 𝜇𝐾 + 𝜃[𝐾 − (𝑆 + 𝐼)] − 𝑆 (𝛽1 + 𝜇)
𝑑𝑡 𝐾
𝑉𝑏 (𝑡) The size of populations of poultry 𝑑𝐼 𝑆
= 𝛽1 𝐾 𝐼𝑏 − (𝜇 + 𝛾1 )𝐼 (2)
vaccinated at time 𝑡 𝑑𝑡

4
 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

𝑑𝑁𝑏 The complete existence of these

= 𝑁𝑏 (𝐴 − 𝐵𝑁𝑏 − 𝜇𝑏 ) − (𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )𝐼𝑏
𝑑𝑡 equilibrium points is given in Theorem 1.
𝑑𝐼𝑏 𝑁𝑏 − (𝐼𝑏 + 𝑉𝑏 ) Theorem 1
= 𝛽𝑏 𝐼𝑏 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )𝐼𝑏
𝑑𝑡 𝑁𝑏 𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏
Defined 𝑅0 = (𝜇
𝑑𝑉𝑏 𝑏 +𝑀1 +𝑀2 )(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )
= 𝛿[𝑁𝑏 − (𝐼𝑏 + 𝑉𝑏 )] − 𝜇𝑏 𝑉𝑏
𝑑𝑡 1. If 𝑅0 < 1 and 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 then System (2) has
one equilibrium point, namely 𝑃0 =
Table 2 Meanings of Parameters in the (𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , 𝑉𝑏 ) = (𝐾, 0,
𝐴−𝜇𝑏 𝛿(𝐴−𝜇𝑏 )
, 0, ).
Mathematical Model 𝐵 𝐵(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )
𝜇𝑏 (𝑀1 +𝑀2 )
Parameter Meaning 2. If 𝑅0 > 1 and 𝐴 > (2𝛿+𝜇 )
+ 𝜇𝑏 then
𝑏
𝜇 The birth rate is assumed to be System (2) has two equilibrium points,
equal to the natural death rate in namely 𝑃0 and 𝑃1 = (𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , 𝑉𝑏 ) =
the human population (𝑆 ∗ , 𝐼∗ , 𝑁𝑏∗ , 𝐼𝑏∗ , 𝑉𝑏∗ ) with
𝛽1 Opportunities for contact
between healthy humans and 𝐾(𝜇 + 𝛾1 )𝐼∗
𝑆∗ = ,
infected birds that cause infection 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏∗
𝛽2 Opportunities for contact 𝛽1 𝐾(𝜇 + 𝜃)𝐼𝑏∗
𝐼∗ = ,
between healthy humans and 𝐾(𝜇 + 𝜃)(𝜇 + 𝛾1 ) + 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏∗ (𝜇 + 𝛾1 + 𝜃)
infected humans that cause 𝛽𝑏 (2𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )𝐼𝑏∗
infection (assumed to be zero) 𝑁𝑏∗ = ,
𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )
𝛾1 The rate of recovery of humans is
𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )
naturally infected 𝐼𝑏∗ = [𝛽𝑏 ((2𝛿
𝐵𝛽𝑏2 (2𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )2
𝛾2 The rate of recovery of humans is
infected by treatment (assumed to + 𝜇𝑏 )(𝐴 − 𝜇𝑏 ) − 𝜇𝑏 (𝑀1 + 𝑀2))
be zero) + (𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1
𝛼 The proportion of humans given + 𝑀2)(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )],
treatment (assumed to be zero) 𝛿[2𝛽𝑏 𝛿 + (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )]𝐼𝑏∗
𝑉𝑏∗ = .
𝜃 Immune decline rate (𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )[𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )]
𝐴 The rate of growth of the poultry Proof:
population without From System (2) an equilibrium point will
environmental influences be sought by making zero right segments to
𝐵 Influence of increasing density of obtain System (3).
poultry populations 𝐼𝑏
𝜇𝑏 Natural mortality rates in poultry 𝜇𝐾 + 𝜃[𝐾 − (𝑆 + 𝐼)] − 𝑆 (𝛽1 + 𝜇) = 0
𝐾
populations 𝑆
𝛽𝑏 Opportunities for contact 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏 − (𝜇 + 𝛾1 )𝐼 = 0
𝐾
between healthy birds and 𝑁𝑏 (𝐴 − 𝐵𝑁𝑏 − 𝜇𝑏 ) − (𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )𝐼𝑏 = 0 (3)
infected birds that cause infection 𝑁𝑏 − (𝐼𝑏 + 𝑉𝑏 )
The rate of death of poultry due 𝛽𝑏 𝐼𝑏 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )𝐼𝑏 = 0
𝑀1 𝑁𝑏
to bird flu infection 𝛿[𝑁𝑏 − (𝐼𝑏 + 𝑉𝑏 )] − 𝜇𝑏 𝑉𝑏 = 0
𝑀2 Poultry mortality rate due to Look for the value 𝐼𝑏 then obtained 𝐼𝑏 = 0
being burned or 𝛽𝑏 (𝑁𝑏 − 𝐼𝑏 − 𝑉𝑏 ) − 𝑁𝑏 (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 ) = 0 .
𝛿 Proportion of vaccinated poultry Based on the value 𝐼𝑏 , it is divided into two cases,
namely the case 𝐼𝑏 = 0 and 𝐼𝑏 ≠ 0.
MODEL ANALYSIS
Case 𝐼𝑏 = 0 produces a disease-free
The equilibrium point is obtained by
equilibrium point (𝑃0 ) . While the case 𝐼𝑏 ≠ 0
making the equation of System (2) equal zero. 𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏
When 𝐼𝑏 = 0 the disease-free equilibrium point is produces a value of 𝑅0 = (𝜇 and an
𝑏 +𝑀1 +𝑀2 )(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )
obtained, namely 𝑃0 and when 𝐼𝑏 ≠ 0 is obtained endemic equilibrium point (𝑃1 ).
an endemic equilibrium point, namely 𝑃1 .

5
 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

Stability of Disease-Free Equilibrium Points It is assumed that 𝛿 = 𝜇𝑏 then obtained

For the case 𝑃0 all negative eigenvalues 𝐴3 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴1 dan 𝐴0 as follows.
are obtained if 𝑅0 < 1. In other words, if 𝑅0 < 1 𝐴3 = 18𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏4 (𝛽𝑏 − 2(𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )),
then the equilibrium point 𝑃0 is stable 𝐴2 = 6𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏4 [𝛽𝑏 (4(𝐵𝐼𝑏 − 𝐴) + 14𝐵𝐼𝑏 + 𝐴)
asymptotically locally and if 𝑅0 > 1 then the + 9𝜇𝑏2 (𝛽𝑏 − 2(𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 ))
equilibrium point 𝑃0 is unstable. + 6𝐴(𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )],
Complete stability of the equilibrium point 3 4
𝐴1 = 2𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏 [𝑀1 + 𝑀2 + ((𝑀1 + 𝑀2 ) − 3𝜇𝑏 )]
is given in Theorem 2.
+ 6𝛽𝑏2 𝜇𝑏5 [6(𝐵𝐼𝑏 − 𝐴) + 6𝜇𝑏
Theorem 2 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2]
𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏
Defined 𝑅0 = (𝜇 and 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 . + 24𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏4 (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1
𝑏 +𝑀1 +𝑀2 )(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )
1. If 𝑅0 < 1 then 𝑃0 equilibrium point is + 𝑀2 )[3𝜇𝑏 (𝐴 − 𝜇𝑏 )
stable asymptotic locally. + (𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )2 ]
2. If 𝑅0 > 1 then 𝑃0 equilibrium point is + 24𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏6 [𝛽𝑏
unstable. − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )]
+ 8𝜇𝑏4 (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )3 (𝑀1
Proof: + 𝑀2 ),
For the case 𝑃0 the characteristic equation 2
𝐴0 = 2𝜇𝑏 (𝛽𝑏 − 2(𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1
is obtained, + 𝑀2))[𝛽𝑏2 𝜇𝑏3 ((𝐵𝐼𝑏 − 𝐴)
1 + 4(𝐴 − 𝜇𝑏 ) + 𝜇𝑏 )
[(𝜆 + 𝜃 + 𝜇)(𝜆 + 𝜇 + 𝛾1 )(𝜆 + 𝐴
𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 + 𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏3 (𝛽𝑏
− 𝜇𝑏 )(𝜆(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 ) − 𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏
− 2(𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 ))(𝑀1
+ (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 ))(𝜆
+ 𝑀2)
+ 𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )] = 0 + 2𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏3 (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝐴
Obviously all the eigenvalues are negative. − 𝜇𝑏 )
+ 4𝜇𝑏3 (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2)2 (𝑀1
Stability of Endemic Equilibrium Points + 𝑀2)],
The complete stability of the equilibrium and
point is given in Theorem 3. 𝐵2 = 𝐾,
Theorem 3 𝐵1 = 𝐾(2𝜇 + 𝛾1 + 𝜃) + 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏 ,
Defined 𝑅0 = (𝜇
𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏
. 𝐵0 = 𝐾(𝜇2 + 𝜇𝛾1 + 𝜇𝜃 + 𝛾1 𝜃)
𝑏 +𝑀1 +𝑀2 )(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 ) + 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏 (𝜇 + 𝛾1 + 𝜃).
𝜇𝑏 (𝑀1 +𝑀2 )
1. If 𝑅0 < 1 and 𝐴 > (2𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )
+ 𝜇𝑏 then 𝑃0 Clear the value of 𝐴3 is positive and
equilibrium point is stable asymptotic because of the assumptions of 𝐵𝐼𝑏 > 𝐴, 𝑀1 +
locally. 𝑀2 > 3𝜇𝑏 , and 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 the values of 𝐴2 , 𝐴1 , and
2. If 𝑅0 > 1, 𝛿 = 𝜇𝑏 , 𝐵𝐼𝑏 > 𝐴, 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 , and 𝐴0 positive. Using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion
𝑀1 + 𝑀2 > 3𝜇𝑏 then 𝑃0 equilibrium point for cube polynomials, it is obtained that 𝐴3 𝜆3 +
is unstable and 𝑃1 is stable asymptotic 𝐴2 𝜆2 + 𝐴1 𝜆 + 𝐴0 = 0 has roots with negative
locally. real parts.
Obviously the values of 𝐵2 , 𝐵1 , and 𝐵0
Proof:
positive. Using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion for
For the case 𝑃1 the characteristic equation the second power polynomial 𝐵2 𝜆2 + 𝐵1 𝜆 +
is obtained,
𝐵0 = 0 has roots with negative real parts.
1
𝐾𝛽𝑏 (𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )(2𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 )2 (𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏 − (𝜇𝑏 + 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 )(𝛿 + 𝜇𝑏 ))
SIMULATION MODEL
[𝐴3 𝜆3 + 𝐴2 𝜆2 + 𝐴1 𝜆 + 𝐴0 ][𝐵2 𝜆2 + 𝐵1 𝜆 + 𝐵0 ]
Mathematical model simulations of the
=0
spread of avian influenza with vaccination and
with
logistic growth in poultry populations using the
Maple 12 program and by giving values for

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 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

each parameter according to the conditions of

the value 𝑅0 in the theorems given above.
The values of the parameters given to
make a simulation can be seen in Table 3.
Table 3 Value of Parameters in the System (2)
Parameter Value
𝜇 0.00004
𝛽1 0.01667
𝛾1 0.001
𝜃 0.023
𝐴 0.075
𝐵 0.0001
𝜇𝑏 0.0052
𝛽𝑏 0 < 𝛽𝑏 < 1
Figure 2 Sector Graph 𝑁𝑏 vs 𝐼𝑏
𝑀1 0.03
𝑀2 0.1
𝛿 0.05
𝐾 2000

The parameter values used in the 𝑃0

equilibrium point simulation are in accordance
with Table 3, the value of 𝛿 = 0.05 means the
proportion of birds given 5% vaccination from
infected birds.
From these parameter values 𝑅0 =
0.31354515 < 1, 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 and equilibrium point
𝑃0 = (𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , 𝑉𝑏 ) = (2000, 0, 698, 0, 632.3).
The results of the 𝑃0 disease free equilibrium
point simulation using Maple 12 can be seen in
Figure 2.
While the parameter values used in the Figure 3 Sector Graph 𝑁𝑏 vs 𝐼𝑏
equilibrium point simulation 𝑃1 are in
accordance with Table 3, the value of 𝛿 =
Efforts to prevent endemic outbreaks are
0.0052 means the proportion of 0.52%
by giving vaccinations to vulnerable birds and
vaccinated poultry from infected birds.
burning to infected poultry. Analysis was carried
From these parameter values 𝑅0 =
out by varying the rate of vaccination of
2.3668639 > 1, 𝛿 = 𝜇𝑏 , 𝐵𝐼𝑏∗ > 𝐴, 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 , 𝑀1 +
susceptible poultry (𝛿) and variations in the
𝑀2 > 3𝜇𝑏 and equilibrium point 𝑃1 =
burning of infected poultry (𝑀2 ). The minimum
(𝑆 ∗ , 𝐼∗ , 𝑁𝑏∗ , 𝐼𝑏∗ , 𝑉𝑏∗ ) =
proportion of vulnerable vaccinated poultry and
(1162.3, 802.9, 447.75, 86.2, 180.8) . The infected poultry that are burned so that the
simulation results of the endemic equilibrium
epidemic does not expand is used the terms 𝑅0 <
point 𝑃1 using Maple 12 can be seen in Figure 1.
3.

Minimum Proportion of Vaccinated Poultry

By using 𝛽𝑏 = 0.64 , 𝑀2 = 0.1 , and the
parameter values that are in accordance with
Table 3 and with variations in the values of 𝛿 are

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 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

0.025, 0.03, 0.046, and 0.089 . The simulation

results of the endemic equilibrium point 𝑃1
using Maple 12 can be seen in Figure 4 to Figure
6.
The difference in many populations of
classes 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , dan 𝑉𝑏 with respect to time 𝑡 with
𝛽𝑏 = 0.64 and 𝛿 = 0.025, 0.030, 0.046, 0.089
can be seen in Figure 10 to Figure 13.

Minimum Proportion of Poultry Infected

with Burnt
By using 𝛽𝑏 = 0.64 , 𝛿 = 0.0052 , and
parameter values that are in accordance with
Table 4.3 and with variations in the values of 𝑀2
are 0.3, 0.32, 0.34, and 0.36 . The simulation
results of the endemic equilibrium point 𝑃1 Figure 4 Graph of class 𝑁𝑏 with time 𝑡
using Maple 12 can be seen in Figure 7 to Figure
9.
The difference in the number of
populations in classes 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , dan 𝑉𝑏 with
respect to time 𝑡 with 𝛽𝑏 = 0.64 and 𝑀2 =
0.3, 0.32, 0.34, 0.36 can be seen in Figure 14 to
Figure 17.

Information Figure 4 to Figure 6:

𝛿 = 0.025 𝛿 = 0.046
𝛿 = 0.030 𝛿 = 0.089

Information Figure 7 to Figure 9:

𝑀2 = 0.3 𝑀2 = 0.34 Figure 5 Graph of class 𝐼𝑏 with time 𝑡

𝑀2 = 0.32 𝑀2 = 0.36

Information Figure 10 to Figure 17:

𝑁𝑏 (𝑡) 𝐼𝑏 (𝑡) 𝑉𝑏 (𝑡)

Figure 6 Graph of class 𝑉𝑏 with time 𝑡

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 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

Figure 7 Graph of class 𝑁𝑏 with time 𝑡 Figure 10 Graph 𝛿 = 0.025

Figure 8 Graph of class 𝐼𝑏 with time 𝑡 Figure 11 Graph 𝛿 = 0.030

Figure 9 Graph of class 𝑉𝑏 with time 𝑡 Figure 12 Graph 𝛿 = 0.046

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 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

Figure 13 Graph 𝛿 = 0.089 Figure 16 Graph 𝑀2 = 0.034

Figure 14 Graph 𝑀2 = 0.30 Figure 17 Graph 𝛿 = 0.036

CONCLUTION
Based on the discussion that has been
done, it can be concluded that the mathematical
model of the spread of avian influenza with
vaccination and logistical growth in the poultry
population is divided into six equations.
The mathematical model of the spread of
avian influenza with vaccination and logistical
growth in poultry populations has two
equilibrium points, namely disease free (𝑃0 ) and
endemic (𝑃1 ).
𝛽𝑏 𝜇𝑏
Defined 𝑅0 = (𝜇 .
𝑏 +𝑀1 +𝑀2 )(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )

(1) If 𝑅0 < 1 and 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 hen the System has

one equilibrium point, namely 𝑃0 =
Figure 15 Graph 𝑀2 = 0.32

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 F.A. Setyowati et al./ UNNES Journal of Mathematics 7(2)(2019)

(𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , 𝑉𝑏 ) = (𝐾, 0,
𝐴−𝜇𝑏 𝛿(𝐴−𝜇 )
, 0, 𝐵(𝛿+𝜇𝑏 )) This is evidenced if the chance of contact
𝐵 𝑏
between healthy birds and infected birds (𝛽𝑏 )
and 𝑃0 are stable local asymptotics.
and the greater the proportion of vaccinated
(2) If 𝑅0 > 1, 𝛿 = 𝜇𝑏 , 𝐵𝐼𝑏 > 𝐴, 𝐴 > 𝜇𝑏 , and
birds (𝛿) then the value of 𝑅0 < 1. While the
𝑀1 + 𝑀2 > 3𝜇𝑏 hen the System has two
greater proportion of burning infected birds can
equilibrium points, namely 𝑃0 and 𝑃1 = prevent the occurrence of endemic outbreaks.
(𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑁𝑏 , 𝐼𝑏 , 𝑉𝑏 ) = (𝑆 ∗ , 𝐼∗ , 𝑁𝑏∗ , 𝐼𝑏∗ , 𝑉𝑏∗ )
This is evidenced if the chance of contact
with between healthy poultry and infected birds (𝛽𝑏 )
𝐾(𝜇 + 𝛾1 )𝐼∗ and the greater the proportion of infected
𝑆∗ = poultry burning (𝑀2 ) then the value of 𝑅0 < 1.
𝛽1 𝐼𝑏∗
This means that the population will be stable
𝛽1 𝐾(𝜇 + 𝜃)𝐼𝑏∗
𝐼∗ = because the disease will disappear from the
𝐾(𝜇 + 𝜃)(𝜇 + 𝛾1 ) + 𝛽1 𝐼𝑏∗ (𝜇 + 𝛾1 + 𝜃) population (disease free).

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