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    SEMESTER-III B.A. (Hons.) ECONOMICS (Nov-Dec 2014) Statistical Methods for Economics-II ‘Maximum Marks 75 ‘ded into three sections. Attempt al sections, Choice te applicable se” te sections A and C. Answers to all questions within ench sethh aoe other. Start the answer to each question on a new page and all ake 4 question should follow one after the otter, Use of sinile calculators 6 Permted Require statistical! inbles are aitacied with tis question paper, Anes Take seriten either in English or Hindi; but the same medlumt should be ord drupe the paper The paper ie ee 2 (0) The goals scored by ateam in asoccermatchisarandom variable, BrPich takes the values 0,1. and 2 with probabilities Q3, 0 and 0-3 respectively: Ifthe eam plays two matches, then dav up the zampling distribution of the total number of goals scored and find its expected value and the variance ? 9 Ans. No.ofgoals 0 1 2 Probebility 03 06 01 ‘Match 1 Match 2 Total no, of goals Probability 0 0 0 0.09) 1 SATISH: B.A. (Hons,/ ECONOMICS (SEMESTER. II} 6 expected value of Ty = ET) * Pr, = (00.08) + (1 x0.36) + es * (2x 042) + (3x 0.12) + (40.01) E(T)= 1.60 how, E(T)? = E19. Pr, = (00.09) + (1 x0:36) + (40.42) + (90.12) + (16x 0.01) = 328 Erg? - (ETF = 3.28 - (1.6)? 328-256 = 072 ) (i) A fem sells commodities X and Y at prices Rs, 10 and Re.2 espectively and a fied cost C is ineusved in the procets, If the expected sales and variance of X are 100 and 25 and for ¥ are 200 and 64 respectively, find the expected value and standard deviation of tie revenue of fism given that the covariance of sales of Xand Yis-2, (i) Define a statistic. Which of the following A to Eare statistics and why? varr, ysice max{X]- min(X,) cw De AY, wE aD (x/- RF (32) 2 0 2 0.03 Var(R) = 10* Var(x) +22 Var(r) +2 x 10%2 Cov(x,1) ‘ 2 A oe = 100(25) + 4(64) + 40(-2) 2 A 2 2) a S.D.(R)= 2676 =51.73 po 238 ae Ong Me (ii) A statistic is any quantity whose value can be calculated from the a re sample data, Z Yo/= Oneal One m Cand E Smet (Nov -Dec-2014) erro residual 24 04 62 02 10a Be 22 17 oma s isa —. A= —— a 5035 55=45 = A= y-Azeiesse) a Fegression line, Jem 1443.80) errors the following statistics were calculated: By = 0.9645, fi, = 1.6699, Sy, = 0.5262, 5, the intercept coefficient and A, is the slope coefficient (i) State null and alternative hypotheses (it) What statistic would you use to tent the hypotheses, derive its value ? a ‘ (ii) Do you reject the mull hy significance? 11569, where Ay is and ypothesis. at the 0.05 level of YT ee ——__ SSATISH: B.A. (Hons)/ECONOMICS (SEMESTER- It iii) above. (iv) Interpret your result in (ii) al Ans, fy =0,9645 fy = 1.6699 Sq, =05262 Sp, = 0.1569 (Hai =0 HyiBad b= 1.6699. = 0.05 n=15 tana” foms.1s i (Hi) tans, sp = 2.160 20.64) > 2160 oni ' 160 zero. (tv) AL5% level of significance, he slope coefficient is not equal io zero. (6) Tae eve ines relation explaining the height of the oldest son (09 and the height of the father (X), both in inches, is given by ¥ = 35.82 + 0.478X with variance of the population disturbance term as 2.25, (i) A sample of 5 fathers has heights of 64, 66, 68, 70 and 72 inches, Calculate the standard deviation of the estimated slope coefficient, By. (if) fa sample of 7 fathers is drawn with heights 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70 and 74, would this larger eample be preferable to the one chosen jn (1) above ? Why? (23) Ans. Y= 35.82+0478X ” ‘Variance of population disturbance = 2.25 = 5 () X= 64, 66, 68, 70,72 ns = 16444044416 Vi OOS ee saa $225 $y 8 2B orn hse | iO (ti) X= 65, 66, 67, 68, 69,70,71 Var (p= SHAE 4928 Sa aE228 Spa ene era “hs "Veer ‘The sample with les standard deviation should be preferred, 4. (a) Suppose that a simple linea regression ofthe fuel consumption rate in miles per gallon (¥) on car weight (X) has been performed using 32 observations. Suppose that the least-squares estimates 40 Baio “nom onan sor economic (Nov.-Dee-2014) for the intercept and slope coefficients are, = 68,17 and 5, = —1.112 respectively, with sample standard deviation of the Fesiduals being, € = 4.261, Other useful statistics are ¥= $0.91, and D7, (x) — x)? = 20548, ( What would be the predicted fuel consumption rate for a ‘new observation with car weight of 247 (ii) Find a 95 percent confidence interval for Ans, B= 6827 fy =-1212 »=32 & = 4281 F=3091 F(x, -x)?= 2054.8 () for x= 24. y= 68.27 -Li2xi | y= 68.17 ~1.112(24) = 41.482 (us) 42m fi)'5 eee 2 © 5° er ~ateas “00 95% citer A, = Br *tocasas Sp = 1,112 5 2.042 (0,094) = (-1.0304, -0,92) (©) Consider the following scatter diagrams of variables X and ¥, Find out value or sange of values for the correlation coefficient (0) and slope coefficient of the linear regression of Yon X(/3) for | each case, 6 Y % x wy SATISHL B.A. (Hone}/ ECONOMICS BEMESTER-1I or [ ei SECTIONS QS, (2) Calculate the method of moments estimate for the parameter 9 forthe following lserete probably function f(0) = 5734 £91,210 Find @ for the sample [2.5,3614,3.25,6 8) an Ans. {(n, 8) Gos) Sample (2,8, 3,6,1,4,3, 2,5, 6) 24. « eq by mom eat Bey = E flee) = Dery ~ hy sere ae sen) 2 2641 3 Now bey pees 2454346414 64322+5+6_, > cpa MEO) zs 26+1 Stes 3 6 = 5.05 (b) ¥,"2.3,¥,=1,9, and ¥; = 4,618 arandom sample from a population with the probability density function + ehewhere Calculate the MLE for 8, @. Ans. %=23 Y,-19 Y;-46 [yen ya LUiD= 1 60 Inf= =n In6~ 4dr In & - ding 3 In given case, y= 8. (6) Let X , Xy . X denote a random sample from a normal diseibition with mean zero and variance 8,0 << m Examine the two estimators of 6: () S1X#/n and (il) DX? in -3) and show which of the two on”) a, roid Show whic of the two isan unbiased eatimator of 87 () 6) = 6 8+ nut) distributed wit 2 eee i Ele ca pe noma (ii) Obtain a see (i) 95% Cl for # ; = Feb Fy a eee) = (468, 6477) (ay 98% Cl for nes 3, $80, 550, = 660, 460, 540, 580,720 90 a= 0.05 faoasa 2.778 a= 0.02 Rona Usieai) ig sted a Xeno Xhapmt | Xbs4 = 0.297 ot (St szzox4) x 13.277 ‘0.297 = (1572.644, 70303.03) (e) What level of confidence would be associated with each of the following intervals ? Assume that the random variable X te normally distributed and the population variance 0” is known. and a sample of size n has amean ®, iy (#-n608-2) (i (2-239-4 x+165-2) (uy (~+3+258-2) (@) Ans. Level of condifence associated with (0 (2-165-4-,2) 45% = 045 (09 (2-253-S,2+1.645-2 ) vn vi 19% + 49% = 94% = 094 pe Satisia! Methods for Economicsll (Nov-Dec.-201 (io (—z+288-2) 995% = 0935 SECTION C @.6. Random samples of two types of tube lights are taken, The 40 tube Tights of type A lasted on the average 418 hours of continuous use and Si 'be lights of type B lasted on the average for 402 hours of continuous use. The population standard deviations are known to be 0, = 26 and o| = 22. Construct a 94% confidence interval for the difference between th mean lifetimes of the two kinds of tube lights and interpret it. Which kind of tube light is superior to the other? ) Ans. Population A Population B m= 40 1 =50, x=418 y= 402 % =26 = 22 94% Cl for difference between population means, 29k Aq JAI 3-J= 418- 402-16 = 186 Zon iater teat ona 260 22 mon Yao’ 30. te therefore Cl for py ~ py = 16 £ 1.86(5.156) = (631, 25.69) This indicates, that, with 94% level of significance, Hy- ta? 0 b> ty &Tubelsht i superior rabelighe 3 .7. (a) Inarandom sample of 550 visitorsto afamous tourist destinatior 135 of 250 men and 156 of 300 women sald that they would vied the place again, Test whether the proportion of men and women wishing to revisit the destination are equal. Interpret your result, 6) Use 0.01 level of significance. p, 115 penis. Ans. By =2 a0. 156, 37045 P= R= 052 SATISH: B.A, (Hone)/ ECONOMICS (SEMESTER-1I) Hy: Py B20 Hy: Py ~ Pe #0 4 + By = 0.493 Thy -P, 243) -00u8 sD(P,~ Fr +) 0-006 bag Pee 096 | 407 P(Py =F) | 0.0828 -2.58 < -1.402 <2.58 with standard deviation of 0.16 ke To check pehether ie fignificance, Interpret the result. © Ans. Hy w= 8 Hy ne8 ¥-y 8091-8 statistic = Som =284 Z-statisti Th aaITaA 2 am 0.01 pvalue = 2 (1 - 9 (2.84) = 0,0046 since p-value < a. reject Hi, fix 8 at 0.01 level of significance. 8, (a) (i) Define Type and Type II errors. (ii) Let (ey #2} constitute a random sample from a norm: population with mean and o? = 1. If the null hypothesis = up is to be rejected in favour of the alternative hypothes 11 py > lg when > hip + 1, what is the probability of Type error? @! ‘Ans. (9 Type | error-error of rejecting null hypothesis, when itis true. “Type Il error-error of accepting null hypothesis when its not true. ib) The stand: tment torelievearthrtis pain in elderly patients be efecivein 70s ofthe are, Anew experimental rugs administered ta random sample of 200 elderly pales sea 380 seported fo have csperenced reduced pain Tet the wiishe xpevimental rug nanufactres atthe level of : re effective than the enet Interpret your result. eae ® is known to 2,=233 Since 1.543 < 233 (2) Ina random sample of 3 erm eae si “ane whether it is; reasonablet Saecteea sea ulations sampled have equal variances, | Fstatstics Slot . $3 _ 5.4009 S/of "sp" 3 ~ 07112 2 M1639 yng ‘rejection regi but F= 0.7112 doesn’ ‘At 2% level of significa AX B.A. (Hons.) EC ‘statistical Me Finney » 0415 Fyn Dal fon F< 0.15 or F> 2.81 n't be rejected. FE tion region Hi cant fall in the rejectiO fone that 07 = 02 snce, one can asst iment and or indomized eontrolted exer 4) What is meant by, ©) 0 Water sberationdl 87 | goon a normal (u) Give the sample, (02% ance, test whether the POPHlasio® ‘Ans, ( Randomized controlled elected sample that insures rand: control the other factors during the select "A retrospective observational study 1s base 1.e, has collected from past happenings. Hence, le : act »d on data that is torical time of data collection. (i) Hy ee =0 yi w<0 04 ant top .-04-0 Zatatste= edn SVEN Za Zoos" -1.645 tantly different from zero at 5% level SEMESTER-IIT B, A. (Hons.)/Il YEAR-2015 (Set-I) STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ECONOMICS-II Duration : Three Hours Maximum Marks 7 ‘Atemptall sections, SECTION-1 ‘Attempt any one question from Q. Land Q. 2. Q 4. (a) The following table gives the number of accidents in the last five v= forn= 100 drivers Neoheddens |) [a [a pp Frequency 7, 26 | 26 | 20 6 5 @ Construct a histogram and comment on its shape, (Gi) Find the proportion of the drivers who met with 3 accidents or more, (b) A uniiversity boat race crew consists of 9 rowers, Below are the welghts in ilograms (kg) of one crew : 98, 88,87, 85, 78,51, 98, 88, 78 ‘Draw a box plot of the data and detect outlters,f any, «se Ans. xo a4 4 4 ‘ ° MBA REA « > The histogram is positively skewed. + > Ithas two modes (1 & 2) +645 (2 Proportion of drivers with 3 accidents or more » “225 =0s1 ® 51 7 79 8 7 8 oe 93 98 Median = 67 (may ‘ Statistical Methods in Econo 15 lower fourth « 79 upper fourth = 88 lowest observation » St largest observation = 98 Fourth spread (J) = 88-79 = 9 05) f, 135 lower fourth ~ 15 f,=79-13.5= 655 upper fourth + 1.5f,= 88+ 135 =101.5, @)t=27 lower fourth - 3f) = 79-27 = 52 sie Box plot 51 isan extreme outlier 78 —{ Te 305560 6) 700 75. 80s «Os «00s Q.2. (a) The following data consist ofthe information an the numberof cold drinks sold ata store on a patticulas day. 73, 80, 36, 73, 68, 82, 50, 48, 41, 60, (i) Find the sample mean and median, i) Ifthe 5° observation was 70 instead of 36, how would the sample mean and median change? (Gi) Catgulate 18% trimmed mean, () The data on the weight (in pounds) at birth of30 new born babies, bornat ‘ metropolitan hospital recorded is given below 72 82 68 62 62 80 82 56 86 71 62 77 75 72°77 58 68 68 85 75 61 79 94 90 78 85 9.07.7 67 7.7 Construct a stem and leaf plot foy the above data set, it the distribution unimodal? 0,3) Ans.) X = 613 60468 68 gg . 1513-36470 ) New sample mea 3 New sample median = 6, A. (Hors,VIt Year (Semeste:-tIt} [Econemiss| 16 18% oF 18 cbservation trom each end 36,41, 48, £0, 60,68, 73, 75, 6, 82 JO% Wine mewn Roy = 285 wars 0862333 = sau tices ‘eg tn pours) bauer is wrimod| SECTION- Attempt any two quetions Q.3.(a) What must be true of cventa A and if Wann-3 (o) Bag 1 and Bag Hl each have 3 blue and 9 green balls, Two balls aredrawn secthout replacement from each bag, Whal le the probability thet exally one ofthe fourballs drawn is blue {o) You ask your neighbour to water sek plant while you are en ava Without water the plan will die witha probability of 08, with water it will die ‘witha probability of 0.16. You are 90% sure that your nelghbour will remember to water the plant. (d) Whatis the probabillty thatthe plant will be allve when you return? @) Ifthe plant Is dead upon your rerum, what is the prebabillty that your neighbor forgot to water it? 244) ————— iniesI-2018 (5e0) eonomies- snunied Memods 2 ee" cB ‘ana (e)(QHAUB HB then | (WAC BSB heB CA ; x , SBlue ‘3 Blue Sone] [3dr male Naa cence youny= Pb 2G from Bag 1 26 fom Bag 1) In13 b 1G from Bas) '* PC trom see inne emer, = atceunnsCs 8 1084108 ~ WEIS oa () P (planvalive) = P ¢plany allve watered) +P (plant alive ono: watered) = 0.9 "0.84 +01 402 0.776 Forge: Dead) 9.10.8 P@ead) “i-0776 (il)? orgouDead) = Q. 4. (@)4indlans 9 French anda American people areto be seatedina tow, | Mow many seating arrungements re pouslble when people of the sane nationality sia’ elt next to rach other ? Ib) Let Cy Cand C, be independen events with probabilities U3, and 3/ ectively. Compute P(C, UC, UC), |e) Based ona recent study it wasfound that 16% of all houses ina village own ws SALISH : B.A. (Hons.)/II Year (SemesterIII| [Economics] ‘one in fact own both, Ifa randomly selected house is found to own « washing machine, what isthe probability that talso owns arefrigeraior? (3.3, 4) Ans. () 4! 14 3!» 20736 arrangements 41 = no of ways 4 Indians can 3 31:0 of ways 3 French can st 41+ no of ways & Americans can st Sis no of ways sbove 3 nationalities can be arranged. OPC) PEs PE) Ple Wea Ue) = Plea) + Pte) Phe, nea)Plea Nes) = Pla ven) Pe ne) aor EE) (82) .(2-2-2) baa, 23) a)- eee Sars (Let Aa house owns a refrigerator B= 2 house owns a washing machine SD) Let a, f, 8 be the areas represented in the Venn diagram PA)sc+B P(B)=B+8 Weare given a=B=0.16=,0 =0.16- B+8-010=8n01-8 eee T-H)+B-(l-p) ~ 026-8 0.024, * pond+(01-024 Tel SIUEEOAL B/C bethee dint evens defined on sample pace. Using ‘ens clog srenge the probably of te flowing evens rom the stalled tothe lege Staustieal Methods in Economies 5 (Seu) 7 AUBANB,AS (AB) U (ANB) (6) A committee of 6 people isto be chosen from a group consisting of 7 men and 8 women. If the committee must consist of atleast 3 women and at least 2 sen, how many different committees are possible ? (@ Itis known from experience that 60% of all labour disputes are over wages, 18% over working conditions and 25% over ather Issues, Also, 48% of disputes over wages are resolved without strikes, 70% of disputes over working conditions ie resolved without strikes and 40% of disputes over other issues ere resolved without strikes. What is the probability thata labour management Istue will be esolved without a strike 7 Whats the probability thata dispute which was resolved without a strike was related to wages ? (3, 3, 4) eee P(ANB) sP (ANB]U[ANC)) > prema Y too SEMESTER. [CRCS) YEAR = 2016 (SER) hatte 1 METHODS POR ECONOMICS Tiyimdydeger Y “sity Function of contingons acon wR Yi Find EM, \ Ansiayn=10p= 2 Eo) wnP 1.2 ag VG) amp t-yn ta 3-32 EQe-0~ 98-4 32 gag VGr-)= svar ia) = peda 108 21 1 8 apf 2 wEW. bang 22] 2 27. Suppose the nunberof cede ha oer on highway angen esebewhic tows a Felon dasbuton, Onssavengetoeeecenaien_ | Sveraohilometeeechatioe igthatmortin_| (0) A company rectived s shipment of 20 components of which 22 nun with Type A batteries and 8 run with Type B batcren,§ of these components a0 sandornly selected, Lot X be the number of selected components which run On ‘Type A batteries, @ Name the distribution of X. Whi sare the values of Its Parameters? (4) Calculate the mean and vaslance of X. ao Ans, (a) X > no of accidents over 15 kr ste X= Poisson (i) tote probabllity mass uncon? What p34 for 10 kms =2 2 por 1Skoa = 28-3) Plx> 3) #1-/(8;e=3)-1-0647= 0353 (3 te suen tna, A=? = a.96 = 4/9308 lower bound 82 SATISH © BA (Hona)/IT Yaar Semester] [Econcmie] ()X- Poisson (4) er e012, Fe) prev 2 ce) EES cosners =o se ange ay NP Hand de Oa 4.3.3) PO)=P=1/6 PQ) -PA-P)=5/36 PQ) = Po.—Py? PQ) = P-p} Slattial Metnods in Esoverr-I-2015 (Set 8 vonev 4] ET relent (@re-Beinouttiey 7) =Pira= Pr) x=9, x 700 xroy PO 3 7) 8 3 z z : : P ‘i soo? Vopee Gti (ease rer cP) SECTION IV Atempt any two quastions from Q 10, Q 11 and Q 12. Q,10, (@) Consider bivariate uniform random yatlables X é ¥ that have the Joint probability density function. {ed Gongs borasssbheesysd 2er0 otherwise. () Find marginal density function of X. ltd Find conditional probability density function of X given ¥. (id) AveX éeY statistically Independent ?Justify your answes (©) Suppose X, and X, are two independent random variables and have the means and 9, The variances are variances are 3 and 7 respectively, (@ Find mean and varlancs of ¥ where ¥a2x,-9%, (i) How would your answer change if, and X, were not independent? 73 asrso (sysd) Aes. V= ayia) ot At gan! we SS0= scr 0+scrvom(t=iA-xna seta mh Ca de aku tan ar(t-hugenadt-nl-ng sezoe (PehG ew ae form artookutexa (rahe 5260= t=< | sa00 stro 60 sao | wo eo Gexo [e090 Wo sO ‘i Reid ua, © lee. x pur x srqeyes 89 ss ® i mopa waar @ pues asanp ajo uonouy miatgorsTe| LEED ar PNAS {rveg) stog—1-s2160 eBnieu) 99.01 poy wseiasuneacs: peks> sees. & C3 Va Hsuvs ” wasaon 2 BA, (Hons)/Il Year [Semester-11!] [Economics] Pxly=2) ° ene 1 008125 = 04 2 ows = 04 3 002570125 = 02 1 9.22 (a) Given ajoint probability density function of two continuous random variables X& ¥ fay= wey OexeLocyaa ° otherwise Find Mean and Variancé uf W=3X+4Y-5, _( Suppose that X and Y are independent continuous random variables, Prove EO) - E00. EM =0 73) ee asco: | pea : | E00) =2EGoe EI Vie 2900216. 99424. Gove yp | 209-3) acy fe(ax+2).de Afaxt 28 3 Statistical Methods in Economics-1-2015 (Ser) a7 2 voy eZ (3) = 8-80, 13. 049 9) "102 “ie MPDF of 14 ey flay = 4 flee yr dyn 3fays fe) af payed at = i[2x-3) MPDF of y Aa jo Hleonree 22_(uy 46 | vy. 2 (2) = AS one 5 geil 2 acdeatis Bu) « SxS04xd Cov. (x,y) = E(X,y) £0). BY) B 29 = gis erynte te a SEMESTER B.A, (Hons,)/II YEAR-2015 (Set) STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ECONOMIC raion Tin a “Hasta Marks 75 “Ailemp! any fo pats ‘Each past Carries 75 marks “ddtve notations have thelr tance interpretation i SECTION-! Atteaptallquestions in kind of screws is 2 100 ews are selected F SATISH S 8e A. (Mons)/i1 Yea (Semester [Economics] Unsolved) 2 we 1x2. i | ox Trem each question’ .dom variable with mean domly, Cov.is,y) 0.4, The weight ofa cert 2/9 mg and variance 1/2 mg. 1200 i) Find the probability that thelt (a) Total weight is greater than 59.67 mg. 7 (@ Average weight ls greater than 0.69 m5: eee oily in part (a) abore be calculated Ifinsigad 3 F2™P!¢ 2f10 nvas selecied 7 Why o Why not 6) G2 Tneprababley dsttbuilon ofthe number of boxes of chocolates sold C) rn day by a seller is giver as follows x rs Po): 02 08 : Let (%, X) be « random sample of the number of bones sold en any f2 y thoken days, Weite the sampling dlste(bution of 3" (sample variance), ‘the minora bety een £ bi)and o?7 G) 3 46), vie =f (2) hart icteeetyaide re fay) “401.49 iter cre 169) ofa fo Randy ei oneal oe 170) «mugialptoty coup Jeremy Lv Ava) fx. peared dy SECTION. =f 0) 8.4 incarnate 0. 3.(e) Consider te estatore G,and 64.6; le unbiased while 6, {s biased. = EXD Hd é = of air . Would 6 always be preferred to , ? Why or why not ? Explain, approximately, 1000. ees eee ina (@){f we want to be 0% sure that the mean price of a 2 Delhi differs from our sample ne han CeO ee A (39) casio {A {tonsil Year [SemesterII1] [Economics] 15. (4) In36 wet rans, the gasoline consumption of an engine had a standard dev ical 22 gallens Assumingnermal aistibution find 89% lowerconfiaence Sound foro" and interpret i () Determine he confidencelevel foreach ofthe following onesided confidence tenn (Upper bound : Re.7457 YOU (Lower bound : %-2.06« / (50 (a Upper bound: Ke 75357 Vi8 6 Wie ee aetts eearSeersaraple ery a uniforn populsteon f(2)=1P9 fordex ed =D otherwise () Find the moment extimater of 8. (s) Intuitively explain why max (X) will bea blased estimator of € 7 (8) If the bias of she estimator max (X) [2 -0/( + 3), how would you transform, tte make {unbiased 7 6) at 7 AEX, Br atrandem sample from » pepulaon withthe following f(t)= => tord1 a = 0 otherwise, Derive the maximum likelihood esiimator ofa based on a tample of tl20 n SECTIONAM Question 8iecompuliony, Doany two questions from3, 105x421 Q.§.(@) What do youunderstanc by p-value? Why sit also called the observed significance level? (e) Consider test of the following hypotheses :H, = SO against H, p> 60 stra Sanmiple sfie fets ers « paral population th simple mein vod found to be 59 ard the swrole standard deviation wes &. Determine the praise ofthetest Would you eect then hypothesis lve of dignicancet Explain o @. $10) A driving tes of 200 young end 400 senior drivers showed that 50% of {he young and 60% the senior drivers weve cautis drivers, Use his data te test ‘whether the proportion of cautious drivers is higher for the servor drivers, ind the pwvalie for the test and test at S0% lovel of significance. Whet assumptions have been made incondvcting this test? Statistical fethods In Ecenomnics-1~2015 (Set) (nseled) 91 (b) A company claime that thelr batterie Inst for at oat 55 years. The life of such batteries are asiurred lo be normally disuibuted with standard devi © =9 months, To lest the claim a sample of 49 oatteries Is selected randomly. The Claim is rejected if the sample average life of balteries is less than 5.25 years Determine the probability of type-! error co) Q, 10, An insurance company wants to know if the average speed at which men drive cars s greater than that of woman drivers. The company teok a random Jample Of 26 cers driven by men on a highway and found the mean sped o be 72 alles perhour witha sturdard deviation of 2.2 miles perhour. Another independ sample of 21 cars driven by woman on the same highway gavea mean speed io te 6 miles per hour with a standard deviation of 25 miles per hour, Assume that the speed st whichall men snd all women drive cars on this highway are both normally distribute. () Test at 10% level of significance whether the variance af speed of all cars riven by men on the highway Is diiferent (com the variance of speed of all cars driven by women on the highway. (i) Based on’your answer to (i) test at 5% lavel of significance whether the ‘mean speed of cers criven by all men drivers on the highways ls greater then the mean speed of cars driven by all women drivers ao, Q.11, (-) Leth denote the true average llfe-iime of» certain type of light bulbs, Consider testing, Hy w= 6,000 versus H, :4.> 4,009 based on a sample of size n= 16 fromm a normal population distribution with & ~ 159 {) Hftype off error (a) = 0.1 determine the probability of making a type i) ertor when true 1» 6,100, (i) What should be the size of the sample it is required that type! error (@)= 01 and type tl errox (6,100) = 107 ( College authorities claim that at most 60% of students were residents of Delhi. A random sample of 180 students revealed thai 100 were residents of Deihi ‘Dees this data suppor the claim of the authorities? Test at 10% level of significance. a9) SECTIONIV Question 12 1s computsory. Do any one questionfrom 13 and 4, Q.12, c) Suppose the relation between Y and X canbe described by tliesample \Uneer gression model with the truo y~50-15x and ¢ 7.5, What is the probability tnaty is greater than 35 But less than 40 given that x=9., (@) Let u xy= 8, + B, X +2 be the true rolation between X and ¥ and its OLS: svimate ig, ~b, +b, X 16, a random variable ? Is b » random variable ? Give ressors. © @. 13, For 10 countries the data for cigarette consumption per adult per year (ay and the death rates due to coronary her! ciacase (¥) gave the following: Ex-160, Tyn119, Eta3154, Oy =144254 and Fey «7042 = 001 203 Apisqns ynun/p 2 “Seether ea iad ga ~ so8rey> jepqer 2 = Zounsuo> ays 30 ous0947 Co) [ous pure watiow ad ort a aca wg ee (on “xe aad uoanainsip 4 IReqoad yujo) a diusuoyiejax seou PUSS 03 Xp rus no aney suoidumnee ze tr were 4 SOUS WapMs ¢ 20) ee 813m Jourayuy) mt 49, powrerge sys yy 1d 21040 “aoueoy (1g) way, WINBIS 50 Faay 9 won #909 odors parewtise oxp eA sn worrvaras, aren [1uo¥0%g) uz SEMESTER-III [CBCS} B.A. (HONS, II YEAR ~ 2015 (SET) ECONOMICS : STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ECONOMICS 1 =i*_(FR-SR) Clam = oF 0.96-0.08 (099-100) / ~ T0077 1.00 = -0.0088: / Negative sign refers to the capital outflow. (@ (Let, i=? and BOP=0 Gi eet ee fete ree ear treats in crpinl nian Under the fenble exchange rae regime, Uy leads to deprecation of domes currency and aris in exchange rate Tht fet export incense and 1 curve shifts te therigin Now BOP Ont where 7) (@ Under extended asset market model, M=M(.r,BA.REY,PW) D=D(i?,EA.RRYPW) F-F(ir,BA,REY,2W) 2 A tise in the risk of foreign bonds leads to a fallin demand for the exchange appreciates and exchange rate falls, (SEMESTER-III)/CBCS B.A, (Hons.)/II YEAR ECONOMICS-2016 [Nov.-Dec.] STATISTICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS C-3 CODE (8212+8210+8211) Duration +3 Hours ‘Maximum Marks :75 SECTION-1 Q.1 is Compulsory, Do any one out of Q. 2 and Q. 3. Q.4. The marks of 21 students in a 50 marks mathematics test are given. below : 18 20 25 28 30 95 36 38 39 4 45 45 47 50 40 41 41 41 42 2 43 Calculate a 10% trimmed mean for the data above. Also calculate the median, It was later discovered that the student whose marks were recorded 2535, actually had 45 marks, How will this affect the median value? (5) Ane. = 21, 18 20 25 28 30 35 3% 38 39 40 41 41 41 M445 45 47 50 Wo 42 43 10 10% trimmed mean = fo*100=2.1 ‘We remove 2 values from both the ends. n= 7 25 28 30 35 36 38 39 40 41. 41 41 42 42 43 44 45 45 peat For median = 211.13» observation Bai = 41 If the values are corrected, new observation set is 18 20 25 28 30 36 38 39 40 41 41 545 45 47 50 Median, 11° observation = 41 No change in median . 4 2 42 43 4 Q. 2, (a) An electronic machine has three major circuits—X, Y and Z, Circuits Y and Z are interdependent while circuit X operates independently of circuit Y and circuit Z. It is known that circuit X works properly 80% of © on SGATISI; B/A. (Hans) / 11 YEARECONOMICS Statistical Methods in Economies C-3 {Nov./Dee.-2016) ns the time, circult 90% of the tLme and circult Z 75% of the time, However, if Mf departments will be represented among the selected workers Circuit Z fails there isa 60% chance that chrcult ¥ will elso fail, What is the probability that only clrcult Y works? Ans. P(x) = 080 P(=X)= 0.20 ‘Ans, (@) Production dept: = 10 workers Packaging deptt = 8 workers Delivery doptt, = 7 works P(Y) = 090 crererel, Pq@-o7s EASE. 329- gonsn P(-¥/-Z) = 060 Cy P(Y/~Z) = 040 (0) At least two depit) = 1~P (only 1 depit) Patonly ¥ works) = P(~%). P(%/- 2) = 10.0082 = (0.20) (040) + 09958 BAD (6) Let A be the event that a randomly selected individual Itkes vanilla Only cireult ¥ works with a chance of 8%, (b) How many five lettered words can be made out of the 26 leiters of the English alphabet if repetitions are allowed but not consecutive repetitions? This last sentence means thata letter may not follow liself in the same wore, Ans, 25> 25 *25 x25 «25 = 10155250 words, (c) Ifa machine is correctly set up It will produce 90% acceptable Items. Uitisincorrectly set up It will produce 30% acceptable items, Past experience shows that 80% of set ups are correctly done, Ifafter a certain set up, the f item produced is acceptable, what is the probability that the machine correctly set up? (4r343) Ans. P(C) = 080 Havour, B be the event that a randomly selected Individual likes strawberry flayourand C be the event thet a randomly selected individual likes chocolate flavour, Suppose that PLA) = 0.65 P(B) = 055 P(C) = 0.70 PAUB) = 0,8 PBC) = 0.3 P(AUBUC) = 0.9 ( What is the probability that the individual likes both the vanilla and. the strawberry flavours? Ans, P(A mB) = P(A) + P08) + PKC) - P(A AC) = PBC) +P(AnB nC) = PAUBUC) For only two sels Aand B, Pg = 020 P(AMB) -PIAUB) 4 P(A) + P(B) = 0.65 + 055-08 = 0.40 Ee ae Pi eety (i) Le tt I ke that the individual did not like illa, what i ae : is known that the individual dld not like vanilla, what now Is EO AM Na) the probability that the Individual liked at least one of the other two flavours? Prey = — PAO.) ‘Ans: Since the person didn’tltke A, ard likes atleast one ofthe other two, EUEE EOIECMCLNC P (BUC) ~ F(ANB) -PANC)+ ANBAC) 0.904080 Or P{AUBUC)- P(A) = 0.90~ 0.65 «0.25, TSx0.80=010-080 (0) Show that forany three events A, Band Cwith P(C) >0, peraz2 to: PLAUB/C) » PAC) +P(8/C) - PIA 9/0) (442) 72008 089 =030 ‘Ans, Peaup/ey = PUALBIAC) | KAN) +PM@NC)= PANES) Q.3.8).A factory employs 10 workers in the production deparrment, § FO) i workers in the packaging department end 7 workers in ihe dellvery BANC) | PENG) MANBAC) department, Ost of these workers,5 are to be randomly selected for atraining "Pq * PO), PIC) Programme. (?) What is the probability that all selected workers will be from, fhe same department? (u, What is the probability that st least two different = PIAIC) + P@IC)— PA BIC) oe jes €-3 [Nov/Dec.-2016] a riable X which has 2 (4433) ——— SATISHE: B.A. (Hons) /11YE eee Stetina! Methods in Econom (0) Obtain the ean and variance ol SECTION: it Do any tm auestins cut of 2.4, 0 Sand Qi orn cistibution onthe Inter Gaeates s ‘ns. X~ Uniform distribution (A) salen nf boakvelet stimtes the probabtis forthe numberof wee 1 therwise 3 ‘agazine as follows we i , tga s bothel 4a tore Jens fea bee (0 Find the mean and standard devia nd id standard deviation of the number of sales SS Var X) = EXE QO oes “werd (a a) = Sepa) = 90.12) + 10.16) 42(0.31) + 3(0.20) + 4(0.14) +5(0.07) | 5 (a) Contain random vs xc has edf FG) given by: = 016+ 062+ 060+ 056+0.35 «229 E(X!) = 0(0.12) + 1(0,16) + 4(0.31) + 9(0,20) + 16(0.14) + 25(0.07) (0 forze-1 = 0.18+1266 1890 22401786749 est | Mean = (4) =2.29 Sr Sa Var = E(x!) E00? sp, «Vee Gass = 719- (2257 (9 Obtain the pat oF | = 719-524 i) con pus PiizsX12). = 138 Ans, CDF of x (i Aa weekly income the salesperson receives fixed amount of Rs. eer | plus « comalsion of Ra 190 foreach sale mate, Find the mean and wan | deviation of this weekly income. FO)> EE peta ‘Ana, Weekly income » 200 1908 = 1* eat (1) = 200 + 150 (&(X)) : 4 fest) 1 “hove 10(223)= 5038 wrote 2()-3 4d.) 150 (e.(0)) = 180 «14 = 210, oe ” “(e) (W) Suppose that the ween successive occurrence of an {follows an exponential distribution with mean UA audnwtes, Assume that ‘event occurs. What will be the probability that more than 6 einuteselap before the occurrence of the next event? ‘Ans, Exponential distefbution mean = 1A P(X" = 1 p(Xe6) 1-86 4) - pee -1)-0)¢ ng SATISH: B.A, (Hons, /I YEAR ECONOMICS co seg The strnard deviation war determined fo be 08 inches, What iste probability that it will rain more than 333 Inches on any one day dusing th fainy season? How much rainfall must occur to exceed 10% of the dally precipitation? P(X>33) #1-P% S33) Ans. 12 Te eit (2<1578]=1-09 (© Suppose tat student participation na competition that happens ever yeathen amoral dltibaion withiean10¢sudens and wandard deviation Stents what lathe probability mat sedent pavllpation differs frou teanniby eve han 1 wenanidl ovation, ‘How would you characterize the top etrome 0.3% of the student paricpation values (oo Ane. P(x p22) ~ (EH) ee = P@<-1)-P (294) = 01887 + (1-0.8413) = 01587 + 0.1887 = 0.3174, ‘The top extreme 0.1% of student participation values correspond to Z=3 X= 104+ 180119 students participation, . 6. (a) Find the approximate probablllty that a student can correctly guess (1) 12 oF more out of 20, (i!) at the most24 out of 40, questions on s true. false examination, Under what elreumatances is this approximation yalid? Ane PC)= p= 5-08 antl P(NC)=q= (932 oF more right = atmost 11 wrong F205 mn 0 P (atrost 11 wrong) = 3°b(y,20, 05) = B (11, 20, 05) = 0.748, ‘search on crop yields suggests that daily rainfall in parts of Indit- to be normally distributed with « mean of 2.2 inches during the eainy| Statistical Methods in Economics C-3 [Nov/Dec -2016] ng Ai P (atmost 24 ehghy = $4, 40,05) « Bj2s, 40, 0.5) = 0.923. (0) A repalr team Is responsible for a stretch of oil pipeline 2 miles long. The distance in miles along this stretch st which any crack can avise represented by a unlformly distributed random variable, with my por Mos Find the cumulative distribution function and the probability taat any. given crack occurs between 0.5 mile and 1.5 auiles along this stretch of ; pipeline. [0S fer dexe2 Ana, fe | O otherwise CDF, Fie) = (0.5.ar = 03% sx Dexa 1 as Poossxs18) = fos: = sft = 0515-05-05 = 075-025 «0.56, (c) Arandom varlable has a normal distribution with standard devistion, equal to 10, 1 the probability that the random variable will take on a value less than 82.5 fs 0,8212, whal is the probsblilty that it will lake on a value greater than 58.37 (49363) Ans sa=10 [7 <25-u i a 19 P(X <82.5)= 0.8212 ) = oan «Pz <092) 92-733 P(X> 58.3) = 1-7(x < 583) =p (z<83-733) 7 = 10,0668 = 0.5332, no SATISN:NA ot B.A ona) 1 YEAR ECONOMICS secrion sn Doveny toe guestions eu 9fQ 7,0. 8nd Q.8 O71 i en the value of cee ‘he joint probability distribution of X and Y (0 Find the conditional dlswibution ts al distribution of X given Yori GD Are X and Y independent? aa Ans. 3 ¥ are independent i pi.) « (pe) doyly) and ¥ are not independent ABC Packaging found that packing any git involves tne sages: 1. IIL-The time taken at each ta a stage is normally distibuted with means equal (0 What isthe probability that i will t random ia ineZezeability that wl take more han minute to pak Ane PKeV4Z>60) E(X+¥+Z) = 15430 +70=65 seconds Var Xr Yo Z) = ete 1s = 1444225 97.25 seconde | 8.4.% ++ Z) « 2.69 seconde PKs vez>60) | = P (2, a8 P(L,> 16) Fitoge 1 exceeds 17 seconds? 2016 a satel Methods in Economies C3 (Nov/Dee-2046] A 1 0,4267 « 05733. lan Fora randomly chosen gift whats the probability hat time taken in a P(C>17) #1-POSIT) 15 }=1-2(2<+2) = 1-7(22 = 109772 «00228, wf sama sate San "I indard deviation of X is found to be 0.4, What Sethe snmple mean, The hat fhe sample sce it 65-3) Ans. wn uF =10 2.2 ag-4 4, 4110035, ‘ \ "Tonys a6 Q.8, (6) 1 BXY) =3, EX) + BO) =2, () What isthe covariance between X and Y? Ans. EON) = 3, £00 = B(Y) «2 Cov. 0C¥) » FOC) =21%). 4) = 3-2) 2) 3-40, Gb What ls tke covesiance between U and V where U = 5X+i and Va3-577 An ‘Cow, v)=3« (2) cow (ny) 51155, yi tow it comslaton between Xand Y related to correlation between wane v? Ans, Cott) = Corr (U,V. YEAR ECONOMICS SATISH: BA. (Hons) / (a) The life of Type A bulbs is normally distributed with average 105 days and standard deviation § days, The life of Type B bulbs is normally / distributed with average 100 days and standard deviation of 6 days. A sample Gfsize 40 ie chosen from Type A bulbs and A is the sample mean. A sample of size 88 is chosen from Type B bulbs and B is the eample mean, f Describe the distribution of ( 9 Find P (~1s(4-¥)s1) (545) Ans, Type Type x= 105 y= 100 o28 a8 £(A)-(5) 1005 dey v(A)*¥(8) = 64736100 | P(-06 525-04) P(25-04) - 7(2s-06) | = 0.3448-02743 =0.0703, Q.5.(a) Suppose X and Y are two discrete random variables which have thejoint probability mass funcilon plz yl=(x-2yW/18, (uy)= (4), (2), (2), (22), 0 elsewhere, Determine the conditional mean of ¥, given X=2. Alvo find the twomarginal probability mass functions. Caleulate the value of F (3X-29), Ans Statistical Methods in Economies C.3 (Nov/Dee-2016} 9 4 9 (i) Let x denotes the storage capacity of anew pen-drive that is launched in three models that differ in storage space. Market survey shows that 20% customers buy the drive with 20GB storage space, while 30% buy the drive with 40 GB space, The rest prefer the model with 30 GB apace, Derlva the sampling éistributton of average storage space in a pen drive using a sample size of 2, with random sampling. (535) ‘Ane, Sampling distribution forn=2. [em Vile az | ace 2s 2 nen 20cs 25 20a eo 3 3G S08 3 woos 08 @ : = 29 (02) +30(0.5) + 40 (0.3) #4415412 *3168 y_ Wist281 | 203 an 3 + 67.67 ¢=823 5.62, 333.835 of ‘The average storage space is distributed with mean 31 GB and standard deviation 5.82. G3 SECTION 1V De any twe questions out of Q, 10, @. 11 ad Q.12, 10, (a) The average signing bonus for 10 players in a Local hockey teatn Is found to be 1s, 65890 with standard deviation equal (o Rs, 12,300. Assume the slgning bonus forall players (o be normally distributed, 8.) ILYEAR ECONOMICS co interval forthe true signing bonus of a player How can the interval you found be made more reliable? Is there any esis with an increase in reliability? Explain by incteasing the value of @, but this sample estimation of large confidence intervala, Assume a random simple (X, X, X, fan # and standard deviation ¢' ‘ peer e (Show that jaf 2X 22°4%93°K oan, fof SAE aM stn) 22m to Ge) Sa . ea ds Pepesce co Now/pec-20161 i wethods i silica sof an estimator 0” ? what is Mean Squated BIESE (mse) (od What is Me) 6 Dy (46345) 6 se (g} + (Bias ( show (hut MoE (2) Vertie a i ane nce (y= £0") 2 ef g-2b 240-0] [Ge ecdyh 208 FEA) * E2)- 2) ] : 1 (b-e06i+ £00 HONEA) MN EEA -29"1 = (GEO) +216) = EG HA) (EO)—2" = & (G-B1By?) +1618) = ECB)— ECG)) + (ELA) — OY = (8-28) HEB) - OF = Var (6)+(Bies (8) sticity of a rubber pipe (measured in b:si units) sndeed deviation equala to 0.75lcsi, (i) Find a 98 % confidence interval for true pipe elasticity if a sample of 20 pipes yields sample average of 4.56 kel. (i) What te the sample size needed if we want to be 99% confident that seve average clasillty is within 02 ks of the sample mean? Ans) d= 075 120 te normally dlatelbuted wlth, = 456 95% CI forn : F 196 $456 4196 (O25 a IB. = (4251, 4.885) WP (lx-uls02) = 099 ® (lx=4561502) = 0.99 ne (258) (0.75) (ey = 936 — 94 : SATISH:BA( 0) Suppose true average runs scored ina college, equ 492 fortenm B. Let hy A. while Gdenotes average rans from a ak+p8 Let the estimator fory be (i) Under wnat conditions is ? unblased? (i) What ie the variance of this estimator? Ans Ke Bu Var (A)= @ Var (B) = 4et f= ok-ps M N 0 fis unbiased if ¢ = Mand Boo fY Var (@) = a! Var (A)*6? Var, = ator sept ot © Consider a random sample (Xp %} function Plo6)-X"(8+3) where O£ X61, (0 Find. ane Hons} / IE YEAR ECONOMICS: by Tear A and Team B are equal to. The variance in runs scored tear A is q, whereas itis 1 X denotes average runs froma sample of M gamies played ple of N games played by B, ;,) from a probability mass ator for 9 using method of moments, Uf) Use the above estimator to obtain 2 point estimate for @ when the sample obtained is (01, 0.3, 0.8) Ane Pixie) = s(@e1) (Pen) jee ldr303) esesi Statistical Methods in Feonomice C-3 (Nov/Dee.-2016) 137 wo Q. 12, (a) For each of the following confidence Intervals for populalton sean drawn from samples from normally distributed populations, find the confidence level, widih and mention the distribution associated with the statistic use: 0 (x14 R+2.05-F.) where aaa, in (R-2060-5,,% 2607-5.) where n= 24, ‘Ans, ( Standard normal distribution ‘Width = 0.9775 ~ 0.0808 » 0.8967 89.67% confidence level id t- distribution 0,025 ane 0,005: 97% confidence level (b) Consider a random sample (XyX XywX,) from a probability distribution function f(x @)= x whereOs x1. Find s maximum ikellhood estimator for 9, eee faa=(Gsy" log fiz",0) = (0-1) (E log ,) ogi f(x", 8))) = (@-1)+Zlog x, = @ = 1-Zlogs, (SEMES sample of size 3 is di of size3 is drawn, and R-I1D/CBCS Hons,)/I YEAR ECONOMICS-2016 [Nay.-Dec] ATISTICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS C-3 2 population with mean @, and variance oS What value geMesTEe Cy, mic: B.A. (Hons) Econerteconomics-1 Intermediate Micro. Maxtrturs Marts : 75 Daration 3 Hours Do any hrc questions rom PAPE ‘Aan any 100 PART-A consumption bundle cons etter et He has #0 nowy per ant and hla wauesele Tr Seana edntraint by specifying the #ope Of each 0! inentlon cgordinates of the intercepts (Go) Vinita Likes ind tennis shoes and would like to one it tthe moment, she has many of Ball and OEE marginal rate consume both, At the me ackes for ahoes ia 3, Unused Fackels and) shoes ated to the store for a refund, The eusrent Price 105 4 racket is dees 200 and the price fora pait of shoes ts Rupees 100; Ts Nes present Rupee 2 sfandlean optimum ? Suggest a way for Vinita to make hereel/ better off (449 Mala ta very flexible of food (F) and Leisure (\). Mind leisure. The price of hour. Any wage income “a depict, graphically the ite segment and also (430) 140 Abdul's He has 80 hours a we She consumes x and y, She oays, “Give me x or sivemey, 1 don't care, 1ean’t tell the difference between them.” She le Eitrently endowed with 6 unite of x and 17 units of y. The price of x is 3 tins the pre of. Maa cn ade = andy al the going price Eat has no se wee tunlts of y will Mala consume ? o) Fora consumes, the utility funetion for two goods x and y I Utz, 9) = 2x + 2y + (ry) He earns an i f Ri fae px = 50 Ue ya income of Rupees 1000 while Px = “yah ra nsopinalcounplon hoces ” eSeae4 a5) ‘Ans. () Food and Leisure { Fé L] 80 hours » Labour (La) + Leisure (L) PeRsl WeRsS Z (opportunity cost o For income les than 100, q, $10 ae 75a" 80-4) 5 445 ,, = 400 ~ 54, 4,410,» 400 ~ 54, i Stope=~zy (AB) For income above Rs. 100, 4,,> 10 129 conmac future forware SEMESTER-11I (CBCS} in expected fo a B.A, (Hons.)/ECONOMICS/II Year change, he wants (6 Statistical Methods for Economics—2017 Ter ‘Mexican Marka 75 ‘All quests within each wcton ae tobe aioe In & coats manner eee answer sheet, Stor ench question on net pageant al udpart ofa quests ‘should fll one after the eter This paper contains four sections. Aitenph al sections SECTION Q- 1 ts compulsory, Do any one ont of Q.2 and Q. 3 Q. 1. (a) The heights of five players in 3 football team have a mean of 76 | # meding of 78 inches and a range of 11 inches. (IE the tallsst of these players is replaced by « cubstitute who le two Imehes taller, would these three measures change ? If yes, how? GO If the tallest player is replaced by 2 substitute who Is four inches shorter, whlch of the new values (mean, median, and range) could you determine? What would thelr new valucs be? (©) Show that or any three events A, B and C with PIC) >0, P ABO) = MAIC) + PBIC) = PlanBIC) 2 ‘Ans.(2)mean=76, mediam=78, range= it (0 Wthe tallest player is replaced by a substitute who is two inches tales Toure New means 2645°2 76. inches Meclian doesnt change = 75 inches. Rangeincreasesby2 = 13 inches (10 the tales player is replaced by + aubanute who is 4 inches shorter ‘medion ard renge cat be deterined. New mean = 26*5—£ 75 ©) Faves) = Rave = FARO , MBAQ _PARAAG) re) TOR) =) = PIO) +P (OIC) ~ PANIC) 2. (a) The marks of 2t students in aS0 marks maths test are glven below : 18.20 25 1) 28) 90) a5 96 g8 ge do era aT TAG 6S Ai Gals aa EEE SSS es OE V4 SATISIE A. QHonsMt Yeor Calculate 10%. trimined mean forthe data abuve, {UW Nane B are independent events prove that A! B icomplement of 8) wou! {e) An infeastructure com project ie G8 and the probability of suc he uecers ef anyone project is tndepe woneueeessful, what ‘uncuceessfull Explain Your answer, Given that al least one 1s succesful, what ig the probabil sscesttal?| Ava. la) neat OW trmmed menn, requires eliminat Be~ Sones (1114. an Bare indepnden cee PAN) = P(A) Pity may = ral Piweeys rca) ‘ieee Pt Pe) =1 GPA) CPE, Pare ie likewise be independent, pany has launched two project one in Mumbal her ts Delhi, Suppose ta the dent ofthe other, (SEMESTERAII/Beonomies (CHCS] (complement of A) and probability of success of the Mumbal sess of the Delhi projet Is 03 and that (33) #962 smallest and 2 largest observations =Pe) (AB) =IPIA)=P@)-P(A}.P@)) Events A’ and 5 ateals independent. orn 8 Pia) 02 PO) 03 pe a7 PUB) = 08-03 Pansy © 07-07 2m 2 oie POMS) = 086 raven 2 O% 1B ocate probability tht cay Pane) ote FB) a7 702 HAM occur, probebilty of oly 8 MGOM AP PANB) _ 918)-PAm PAUB) = 222 357 HA Boccars probetiliyofenly A BA-PARB) 08036 Aaa 08s PCAWS) 065 ete event A ts succots in Mumbal and B is sucess in Dell, PIAA} (9) rare bh oon oN 3 Satine ve STER-LI/Besnomiee [CBCS) = 0087 + 0.116 40.161 ~ 0.0001 = 00047 = 0.001, = 0394 -0.0061 = 03079, ines he distribution is symmetric, QQ _ 78230 Means median = 5 Since, the distribution is symmetric Mes oe = trimmed mean= 526. P(AMB) = P(A)and PB) both ={P (AUB) ~PIA) ~P(B)] P(A) +P (8) P (ALB) 06s +035-08 040 =065~0.35 PUBUEINAY Pray P(8)+ P(C)=P(BNC)~ LANE)* PAD ANC) ay P(A) P BCA) = one. SECTION. t Do any two ont of Q. 4 Q.5 and Q.6, Q. 4 (a) The probability dlststbution for the number ef machines that might Break down In a day has been determined lor a tachine shop. The probabilities for 01, and 2 breakdowns are respectively 03, 0,6 and Ot. (# Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of daily breakdowns (i) Daily repair costs, R. found in rupees are calculated as R = 300 + 200%, whore X ie the number of breakdowns. Calculate the expected daily repair cost (1) A calesman makes initial contact wlth the potential customers in order to assess whether the customers would like to purchase the product if offered some Iucative discounts, His survey suggesis that 40% of the customers would hades for Econom 7 purchase the produa 167 offered a discount. 1f he contacts 109 customers, then what is the approximate probability that between 4S and 50 customers would Actually purchase the product? (¢) The amount of tim tuniiomly distributed between 0 and 15. minute probability that a person waits few waiting tne? inclusive, than 128 minutos? What Ana(e) P(K-0) = 03 PK) = 06 PKez) = 01 Mean + EO) = LxPO%=x) = 0x03+1*06+2701 =o 8 Standard deviation = JE(X*)-[E(x)F 6) = ExtPOs) = Gix03 +1 405-201 wR = 300+200»2 ER) = 300+ 200 E (x) = 300+200 (4) = 500, wm F = 40 N = 100 Pas geting 3) £0, bss PC tons.)/Mt Year [SEMESTER AII}/Eeonomics [CBCS) HBA Whar the values of and o? aes pone SiSerwise ey i-X iH 0sx31/2 X y1/2sxa1 120 fa ven by max xa [ Find the expecied value f KOO. co asta) r(S25#) = 010 U = -235 = 0-2-25256 = y+ 2m5¢+59"0 1(gtsx) - 0m = XS oss = 858 1645 = 080 = 2) = p(2>2) -09772 #16 ot=3,083 gy = 03 2 a+ = 3 @ 03 = se R-I/Beonomles [CBCS) ‘Hons,y/ll Year [SEME! siributed with mean 2 and variance 2.5625 (aegnpe paren) (vesis *? § Jase) P18 s Zs-0828) 0.2640 0.0205 o23ss Q. 9. (@) IF two cards are randomly drawn (without replacement) from an. ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, Z is the number of aces obtained in the first ‘and W is the total number of aces obtained in both draws, find ‘The joint probability distribution of Z and W. (i The marginal distribution of Z. @) Let ¥ denote the engine power of a new car that is launched in three models that differ in power (denoted by bhp). Market survey shows that 20% Customers want to buy the car with § bhp power, The rest prefer the model with 4 bhp. Derive the sampling distribution of average engine power using a sample size of 2, if the samples are obtained through random sampling, (5+) Ans. (ay(@) ara w ° 1 2 0 08s ©0075 ee 0.0725 0.005 ( Marginal distribution of Z = 08225 forZ=0 = 0.075 forZ=1 where probabilities are calculated by multiplication rule ( P@bhp) = 020 P(gohp) = 050 PSbhe) = 030 Sani Probables 08 10 0.05 0.10 0.25 os 0.08 015 0.09 "Swers HERB) T 2 2 2 4 4 5 3 5 is he sampling distribution, Increasing the sampl size, They hava to spend more time and money for collecting more data. Statistical Methods for Economies ~20 1 SECTIONIY Do any two out of 0.10, 0.11 and Q.12 Q. 20. (a) Varun Publications ablained & random sanipie of 23 books to determine thelr average, The ont of books i assumed to be normally stributed, Ifthe sample mean Is Re, 296 and sample standard deviation Rs. 4.65, find Mapai (i) 98% confidence interval for the cost of a book. (i How can Varun Publleations make thelc result more reliable? Is there any loss assoclated with I? (b) What is Mean Squared Error (MSE) of an estimator 87 Show that MSE (8) = Variance (8) + (wias (8). (©) Consider & random sample 0%, XX, probability distibution function ifs 8) «3+ 8), Where 2 «22. {i"show that 6 = (eample mean /6 Is an unbiased estimator for. Gp ea sample size Is Sand the sample isl, 1,2) give point estimate for 8 ;) from a population from 3 33) seat ahora Fo 2356 5 aes {98% Ci lor thecost of «book (Fate fF toa of) =. 098 Fosse _25(485) a5 ng ,25(468) (ase 56+ % (s9se- BEG) ase 25059) oy 98% confidence Interval = (21.136,25.984) (i) Varun publications interval can make their results more reliable by ize. Yes, there are costs associated with Increasing sample (MEQ) « £(6-6)) + ef(2-2@)+£¢@)-0)"] = £[(0-2@)'-2(6 (@) (E-8))-(E8)-0)) | - (626) ]+28/(¢2@)(e6-0)]-[(e ©) ] ~ #[(62)']+e [(e@-0)'] = Var (6) + (Biss (6)? SEMES: (Hons, {Wi Suppose thst the popuigy Pop i sample size If we wane ptt eal recta © Suppose that true aver gitions.) are equal in college, equal her as tis So*for Section B Let economics [CBCS} SATISH: B.A. (Hons jt Year (SEMESTER-I) M trom Section A, while B denote average marks from a sample of size N from Section B, Let the estimator fory be fim aA +(l-a) By (9 Under what conditions is fi unbiased, SEMESTER-III [CBCS] B.A, (Hons, yECONOMICS/LI Year Intermediate Microeconomies-1—2017 (i) What value of a will minimize variance ofthis estimator? Pas ce Consider a random sarnple (iy Xp Mywny) Bom a probability dizatbution JS RPMre ] ‘Aulenipt any thre questions i Part A function ’ Alter! any tun questions in P “fiz 0) = 9x, where 0 *£1.Find a maximum likelihood estimator fore. J uestions in art 3 ees \ PARTA, ‘Ane. (a) (3) =50, % » 654.16 ppm . 1. Jay spends alNuis income on two types of commpbities :eaes x, and S$ « 16843 ppm dothing, x, : 92% confidence interval a; aes uaaton 8) His utility funetion fs Udy. x)= a? oF y i = and Py=2 and ineghe ism = 6, = 615.093, 9327) (4) Find relative prlee ofa carp terms of clothiég (number). Give economic a 3 = 175 oterpretation of the relative pric () Jay now receives 10 clothes gs bicthday gift. Show how hly budget Su = 201 vere = BABIN 64.49) constraint will change, In the followin} 2644 = n= 699095 10, n = 700 WO Be aArt-a)F rand deaw the diagram, Alsunbiased itt Wen i) Are Jay's preferences, 15 u Ans; =a and soe a x - clothing (i), ov 1 il minimize the variance of this estimator Uley 2) xy fee) - m8" osest Pin tO, Pro’. M=60 Peepiossi 6) = 0 fh (0 Rate pol ofnje Bn taking logs ; Lamlog0~ (9+ 1)E logs ‘This impfes me price of cars equal to the price of 5 Bete Paes sa 4 sr log 3-0 10x, +25, - ae When he receives 10 Median= Mode The distribution is positively skewed Q.2. (a) A crime is committed by one of two suspects, A and B. Initially, there is equal evidence against both of them. In further investigation at the crime scene, itis found that the guilty party had a blood type found in 10% of the population, Suspect A does not match this blood type, whereas the blood type of Suspect B is unknown, Given this new information, what is probability that A is the guilty party ? 5 P(ABB)= an BY 218 SATISH: B.A. (Hons,/Il Year [SEMESTER III/Econemics [CBCS) (W) Differentiate betwean descriptive statistice and inferential statistics, Identify which of the following statements (A or B) is inferential in nature: (9 In a random sample of 300 people in Delhi, 240 read at least one newspaper daily, ‘A: Eighty percent of people sampled read at least one newspaper dally, 1B: Eighty percent ofall the people in Dethi read at least one newspaper daily. Gat a fandom sample of 109 students in University of Dethi, 60 studenis dents of Delhi. sixty percent of students in University of Delhi +: Sixty percent of sampled students of Delhi University were from Baler B outside Delhi. Ans. (@) P(A) sP@)* 0S With the initial information set Given the new information set, A doesn't match the blood typeof gullty par v Now, the probability that A is guilty party depends on the credipillly of blood test. Vf the blood testis fully credible, Piano Ifthe blood test has an error rate a, P(A)= 0 (05)=050 (W) Descriptive statistics: Summatising and describing important features of the data is known as descriptive statistics, Some of these methods are graphical ‘while other involve calculation of numerical surmmary meesures. Inferential statistics : Techniques for generalizing from a sample to 8 ‘population are gathered within the discipline eslied inferential tatisucs (@ Ar descriptive B inferential (id) Azinferential Bicescriptive Q.5, (a) Consider an experiinent of tossing three unbiased coins. Find: G) The probability of three heads given a head on the first coin. {i The probability of three tals given atleast one tal 2 (A company has 20 employees in human resource departmen’, 10 employees in gales department and § in account deparment. The manager wants to select 5 employees for regular feedback evercise and every employes hhas an equal chance of selection: ( What is the probability that all the selected worke: epartment? Gi) What is the probability that at least one of the departments will be unrepresented in the sample of workers 7 a ‘Ana, ()() Following are the possibilities given s head on the first coin HHH HET ATH TTT. Pans) are from the sant (id Following are the possibilities given 3! least one til re from outside Delhi, | St ale! Methods for Economies 2018 HHT HTH HTT THH THT TH TTT Pyea- 2 (8 (0 Probability that all selected mothers are = RCyNC'G, | 18012 cy * Boise (i Probability that all departments are represented 219 from same deporte = 00315 mec, roi BGT wees = 88400 «53200. 25200 sot = 02905 Probability tha aleast one department wll be unrepresented = 102525 = 07078, SECTION-B Attempt any two from questions 4, 5and 6 Q, 4, (a) Consider the cumulative distil random variable X bution function of a discrete Fy)= 0 forrer 3 4 torisres 1 f torderee +2 toresrero =i forsaio Find F%=20 G)PA arersys? cares he ‘Ans. ()COF of Pen1O= PO o ” wPcisysd Pree) 222 SATISH: B.A, (Hons,V/Il Year [SEMESTER IIl}/Economies [CBCS) ay E(x? + 4X)= 108 + 4000) ) — VEX+10= FV) = wa) 64 Q.6.(e) On his tour, a night watchman has to open ¢ door in the dark, He has 20 keys, only one of which fits the lock, He makes use of two different methods to open the door: Method A: He carefully tries the keys one by one to avold using the some key twice, Method B: He tries the keys at random. Define the random variables Xa and Xs a8 the number of necessary trials to open the door when using method A out the probability distribution of % and Xs eed (B) Calculate E00 of the following probability distrlbutlon function : fais Poros rst 1 Ftorzsxs3 = Ocleewhere, 4 umber of necessary trials to open the door PUK,= 1 Xan number of necessary trials to open the door using method A nes : puene B io 20 | PK, 3 jae 20 Px Statlstcal Methods lor Economies 2018 223 ap PUX gen) = Be am « oh WE) = (de fle )600)= Rae fa SECTION-C Attempt any to from Questions 7,8, % Q.7, (a) 3£% and ¥ have the Jolnt probability mass function as p(-f, 0) =0, at-As 1) = 1/4, (0, 0) 16, 7(0, 1) =D, p(t 0} = 112 and (1,1) — 1/2; shove that .Conx, ¥) 0 (ip The two random variables are not independent, (2 DiffeeninteSeeween «parameter and stall, Which of the fllowing are nie end why ? paeeae 343 7 2er Ane. (a) x 0 7 ze 2 ut 6 o a nz 4 eee 2 | ees ee 0 Tea eee txts onli 4 eiaets 224 SATISH: B.A, (Hons)/Mt Year [SEMESTER (0) Two events on random variables are independent if | PAB)= P(A)-P) Pre y-0)= 0 Pen ym | Py-0-3n2 P (xen y= Os P=-1)Py=0). Thus, the two random variables ate not independent. (® Parameters are numbers that summarize data for en Statistics are numbers that summarize data from a sample, i population. (0 Parameter (i Statistle : summarizes data from a sample (id Statistic: summarizes data from a sariple (iv) Parameter. forx=-1,0,1,3and y==12.3 (0 Find the value of e. (Uo Calculate P (X* ¥ > 2) (it Find the conditional distribution of ¥ forx = 1e standard deviation 12 ha the probably th (6) Consider the population with mean 82 and th ( Ma random sample of size 64 Is selected, w nple mean will Iie between 80.8 and 83.2? GATISH: B.A, (Hons.yl Year [SEMESTER M1)/Economics [CBCS) P(-O8e2e08) = 07881 02119 05762 100 a p(t<2<1) #08413 ~ 0.1587 = 0.46826, fay increasing the sample size, Increases the probabilly of sample mean ying closer tothe population m 9: (e) A fem soll commosttes X and Yt nice Be, and Rs. 2 vexrSety pe» fired cont © incurred in INE prose he ‘expected sales and respecivel SPyre 100 and 25 and for ¥ are 200 and 6¢ apace find the Tereica valun and standard deviation of tHe reverse of firm given thal the eABSriance of sales of and Y is 5 (oy Tre Independent experiments ars are Grapared. Eighteen specimens are painted ul pare EMM? ech, The sume Ue done wun ype Be TM PoP AT is ecoraes ( rangard deviations for oth known (@ Bet S850 Mout ne teat for she to type of pate find PCs X= 1.0) Seine tage dying times for sample of we Palate 3 ree aca x nave s dlucrete flat altribution for wale the Jont fanction is as fOll0WS ¢ can in whieh tvo different types of palst ee A, and the drying time, In erm etn : sane Ber) = Dae otrnin Se gal posi See tncion R102) Sop ot e220) 0009200) he apes @1e2 vr gh 2 102m ED Tomy 46H -402) forsa0,1,2andy=0129 23 functions for X and Y. 4 = 2976 SD.(R)+ VE =5373. (KH) = EKA) ,) 2 VK Xs) = VOEIVOG) 22 p(xa-Ke> 3) = 1 PO Kez 1) Statistical Methods for Economics (2e!-2 1-e(2e5) +» 1-P(2s 0.707) si lorm * oatos 1 [o) fzype wety) oitowerried at z 1 pp eae 0 ¢ ia | 290 | ano 1 yoo | 200 | ano | ano 2 | ano | geo | ao | 0 | Frey ano OH 9 | Seclon-D Attempt any two from Questions 10, 11 and 12. 0.10, a) How does an increase In the confidence level affect the precision of estimates ? Explain. 2 () Let Xi, Xa, ve Xin and Kay XB, sy Xi Be two sandom samples from the population the following a binomial distrtbution. The parameter tobe estlmated eps defined as the proportion of success in the two samples. Which of the following Isa better point eatimate in tarme of efficiency and lesser variance 7 oh eH) See 5 (o Let X be 2 uniformly distributed random vari {0,¢l¢ ind the snomsenteatimator of 8 Poa reac in the contdencelvel increases the width of canfgence ee AS increases the accuracy, oweres: the pression goes down (aon) 4 Find, Je over the interval 2 fn) «tot wo SATISH: B.A. (Hons. Yoor [SEMESTER IH}/Beonomies [CBCST ey mem 28 * (23)-(S) oer GiB 8) dl on shen) yEe date) “HZ regreu) he fi sian more ficient ond ha lever alnes (ax-Uaiors oy Monet etree omnes 55 t) Suppone andom variate Yat ih following pts He0~8e (2) yene31 (ia What is the confidence level for the Interval x51.44o/F 1 deat isthe value of za for the confidence interval represented by the confidence level of 96.7%? 2e2sd Ans (0) Rater texto (hia 89878 = 00038 = 05900 9951 (03251-00749 = 08802 s sec (i) er 03% 2/2 = 0.15% = 0.0015 Dae 2297 a ee ee a SATISH: B.A. (Hons.J/It Year [SEMESTER It/Economiet {CBCS) n= (22.02) aastes n= (ac.90842) fence Interval. does not ) The statement is not correct, Calculated cent hat trae population mean lies in it with probability 95%, It implies that « number of samples, in the long rur, 95% of Our computed confidence is will contain true population mean. i Stavetical Methods lor Econocsies 04s NoTes } y SS & Pye os = SEMESTER [CBCS) 8.A, (Hons,)/II Year=2018 ECONOMICS [Statistical Methods for Economics] NOTES 4, Band Cal ‘exclusive events, (AC BUC) = (8) Try yourselt. Q.2 (a) A certatg ¢ © with probaviites 008 Note: Publisher is ot responsible for any emissiona/arcora, any, BESUneAA Ris Book under any circumstances. Though every possible measures, 8 takes 10 makothis book wpto the mark. SG/I0%9. May 43 2 SATISH: B.A. (Hons,/{I Year [SEMESTER-II/Economics [CBCS] (WN Dlkferentinie between simple random sampling and stratified sampling. fon variance? Explain ii) How is eample variance different from popu a3 using the concept of degrees of freecom. tAns. (a) PCA) = 040; P(B) ~ 0.35, P(C) = 0.25 P(E) ~ Experienced 3 cost overrun 0.03; PEC) = PIC) PLEO), PAY PRETAY = PRE) PCEZB) + PCE) PETE) x 025 @18) DAOC) + 0.35103) + 025115) 0.0375 Teas 0105 = 00575 0.0375 ° =0231, P(A) P(EJA) FA) PRIA) + FG) PED) + FO) PES) 0.4(0.05) ‘Does 0105 + 00375 002 ny see roast. (onc Random Sampling—A simple random sample Is used to represent the randomly selecis Individuels from the population Ui) out any other consideration whereas a steatified random sample firs! vices Tre population into smaller groups, or strata, based on shared characteristic, Troetere a suatified sampling will enture that members from cach subgroup is Ine aded in the data analysis. {ip Population variance refers to the value of variance thet Ie calculated frem population data, and sample vaslance [a the variance calculated from sample Gar Due to this, the value of denominator is the formula for variance in case of sariple data is'n-1' and itis ‘ni’ for population data, ©. 3. @)() How many ways are there to split » dozen people into 3 teams, whore one teain has 2 people, end the other two teams have 5 people each? di) How many ways ace there to split a dozen people into 3 teams, where edcl team has 4 people? 2n+3h | ()) Suppose « box contains five biased coins with probability of head as 0,4 ti Wand 1 respectively. One coin is selected at random and tossed twice, () What is probability of obtaining tail on the first toss? (i) If tall Is obtained on fisst 1033, what is the probability that anothes tall 2r3 will be obtained on second toss? an PALE) co entre data population and Methods or Economie a = A316 = 8775 baby ot selecting of selecting one cola random Try yourself, ‘3 : a SECTION “8 lompt any twe from question nos. 4, Sand 6, 4. @) Check whether the following funet save factiona for deste random vagblest ns on stv" 4 Probability (Ofls) = 55 forxn1,2,3,4 (iy) = SP for ent, a2 IN) = PE for e212 3. * (2) Consider the cumulative ais a uous random en tive distribution function for a continuous ra Fu) = 0 ferx pasos * uy vom|p¥se (e+) 7 HHodans 03 zapzo wy 921199 01 PRU NOK PIP Ausqeiuow pe Aouows 70 A100hy Ai £000" 2- 100-6¢0- ‘eee = = a oee~ ¥ fo>u>sseco © snok pupyag s2uapyuc> %56.e "aO;DumLL CUM "%QDE 9 /aoqad au Ag peu eae | do caua ou tr asu e fo» 12ao anyset O 2 1665 1902) souap G0 aad es Ft 50000 = “9 ronan peed a cen tpeiduaiie ot [1-870 -9aq/AON] 6102 eee iassases _ - Yenr/eonomics [SEMESTER] [Cy jum exchange rate determined in the foreigh exchange ening by the Bupply-demand sorts foreign, called free exchange rate a8 stir determiped by the free Ket. Thus, the ind supply for 4 foress in the international money Mm is determined when the demand pgolute and relative PPP, Discuss why fied exchange rate for developing (10, 6.78) ce, tesume thal My = Mz so that inereases domestic money ferro, Now suppose the 19 a eit result, M.> My and there Espply, with no change in the demgnd for monty. AN BOF setiew People whe hae larg foreign goads and securities. imports of pocds and forsieny current and capital azcour {H) See @ Se). 2018, Fane No. 214. ‘Also read, Pi setars 10 = meisfe used by macroecanomic analysts ie compare) rds between countries, t enables the compe ‘ealances increase thei’ is tende to raise thelr pri fof the nations) basket of producis and services are similar amongst two tales: Qeiaive PP? is an economve theory that claims that exchange and inflation rates in ro nations eventualy equale with time. This theory is no! valid over short time Gurations. The. vatlance between the Inflation rates of two nations and the cost of ‘Zammoditics drives for variations in the exchange rae between the two counties Sm SEMESTER-IIl [CBCS B.A. (Hons,)/I1 Year~2020 [Nov/Dec.) ECONOMICS {Statistical Methods for Economics} Duration 3 Hours wre 1371108 ‘Maximum Marks 75 ——Fraver any four questions ‘ All questions exrry eal mark Q.1.(0 A consignment of 7 refrigerator sts contains 5 sets with no scratch ‘on them-A hotel maxes 2 random purchase of 3 of the seis. IfX is the number of teftigerator sets purchased witha scratch on I, (a) Find the prabability distribution of % {b) Find the Cumulative Disteibution Furiction (CDP of X |e) Construct a graph of the COF {d) Using CDF, fine P(0

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