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19 APRIL: Europe Related topics:

TOPIC 1: Possibilities of Peace between Russia and Ukraine:

Ukraine's Stance: wiling to dialogue with conditions

1. No Dialogue while Russian presence.

2. No direct negotiations with Russians

Russians' Stance: no signal of dialogue so far

1. no claim related to dialogue from Russia so far

Possibilities of Peace

1. Peace through Negotiations:

EU/NATO/US- questions arose.

2022-23: Defensive mode of Ukraine

2023: Aggressive Counter offensive (inconclusive); support of the West.

Frozen conflict; no solution, therefore, negotiate and avoid any future escalation. possible in equal
players like India and Pakistan. however, Russia-Ukraine asymmetric military capabilities.

EU/US/NATO cannot ease out in case of war. they would need to continuou to provide military and
economic support to Ukraine

2. Defeating Russia:

2023: high support to Ukraine; counter offense; not successful.

NATO; fight against Russia in the mainstream war with Ukraine.

NATO; 2010-11 cleared mediteranean

SO, Ukraine Membership of NATO required.

issue: Russians could transcend to Nuclear apocalypse.

3. Ukraine must Win:

2 strategies;

a. Western Military Support + Economic Support + Will of the people should always continue; Biden 60
million dollar bill to Ukraine stopped by senate and EU 50 billion dollar is being debated.

b. Internal Change or Regime Change in Russia:

West: Problem is Putin

high hope: future leadership would not be so much uncompromisable

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4. Role of Mediation:

acceptable 3RD PARTY

EU/US not acceptable to Russia

China/India: not to Ukraine

UN: not its role; only a good office

2 possible regions: can play their roles as mediator and are thought of already playing their role.

a. Gulf Countries:

balanced approach for last 2 years.

condemnation: Pro-Ukrainian Response: UN Forum Pro-Ukraine Voting every time by GCC. (KSA, QATAR,
UAE, OMAN, BEHRAIN, KUWAIT )

SIMULTANEAUSLY

Diplomatic Channels with Russia also maintained.

Arab League Summit Mid 2023: Ukrainian President Invited

End of 2023: Putin Visits to these countries as well.

Experience of Mediation: Doha Agreement. Qatar. US-Afghanistan

b. African Countries:

Immediate issues to African Economies

UN Forum: nearly 50% divided. voting in GA. HALF RUSSIA/HALF UKRAINE

3 commodities price hike: Fuel/ fertilizers and Grains since 2022.

7 African Countries: AFRICAN PEACE INITIATIVE: To present agenda of peace. (comoris, congo, uganda,
zambia, south africa, egypt, Senigal). Appreciation from Ukraine and Russia.

Proposal: Mutually Hurting Stalemate

5. Freeze and Tax;

Russian Assets in EU/G7 Countries Freezed: $300 billion. No profit for Russia is being generated from
these assets. EU to use the profit from these assets and help Ukraine. Although, not permissible in
International Law, but can be applied as a result of Russian war crimes.

Heavy taxation on Russian companies in EU/G7 countries.

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TOPIC 2: Election Year 2024 the Decline of Democracy:

70+ countries elections. Pakistan, Russia and Bangladesh done. India, US and Indonesia coming. 40
percent of world will exercise it's right to vote. but democracy is declining from 2017. Pakistan and
Bangladesh elections were accused of rigging. India and US will see populist leaders again.

Populism flourishing in the world.

Autocratic rulers highly consolidating

Spirits of democracy fading away.

Factors for the declining Democracy:

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance Report: 2017-2024 democracy is declining

1. Perception that Democracies are slow to respond to social demands:

Putin has been ruling Russia for 24 years. Rebirth of Russia and made Russia a global power after
disintegration of USSR in 1991.

2012: Xi in China rules. BRICS and BRI highly strengthened and Chinese investment is in every corner of
the world.

Bangladesh: Under Haseena (PM)> last 1 and half decade Economy rising.

autocratic leadership yet prospering fast and not by democratic norms.

on the other hand, Pakistan, Indonesia still facing the same issue due to hybrid model of governance.
Even in the UK, democracy has failed to develop consensus on major issues post 2016.

2. Performative Democracies:

In countries like Belarus, Ruvanda, Tunisia, Iran, Bangladesh, Russia, and Pakistan the rulers allow
opposition to compete but election results are predetermined. For example, in Iran the candidate
supported by Ayatollah has the greatest chances of winning elections. And that's the reason why people
lost trust in democracy.

3. Support of Non-liberal Policies:

Democracy advocates liberal policies like open market, free trade, non-protectionist economic policies
etc. In India, Indonesia, Mexico, Austria those leaders with non-liberal policies are wining the elections.

Characteristics of democracy not maintained although leaders elected through democracy

4. Fear of older democracies:

In older democracies like France, UK, US, and Brazil, there is a surge of populists leaders/populism

In France the surge was subsided by the defeat of M. Lepin

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In UK, the populist leaders caused Brexit. In US trump caused damaged to democracy. In the upcoming
elections if Trump is allowed to win, democracy will fail. If Trump is forcibly defeated, democracy will
lose again.

Brazil: the surge of Bolsenaro

Thus in Even old democracies elections are controlled to prevent the surge of populist leaders.

Therefore if democracy is Guaged by holding elections, it is thriving fully. However, if democracy is the
name of upholding liberal values like human rights, freedom of expression, freedom of speech and
voting, it is declining very rapidly.

Conclusion:

The research Article published by V-Dam institute analyzes the electoral politics politics from from 1972-
2022 shows the following tendencies

Liberal democracies

1972: 18%

2022: 13%

Closed Autocracies: China

1972: more than 50%

2022: 28%

Electoral Autocracy: Russia, Syria

1972; 12%

2022: 45%

Electoral Democracy:

1972: 18%

2022: 16%
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20th April: Area: Middle East:

Topic 3: Implications of Proxies in the Middle East:

Sketch of Proxies:

Israel bombing of Syria targeted 2 military generals of Iran.

7th October attack by Hamas planning coordination by these 2 Iranian generals.

In addition, Paramilitary forces of Iraq - supported by Iran. this targets US installations in Iraq and Syria.

Axis of Resistance: Hamas, HIsbullah, Iraq forces, Yemen Houthis

Yemen Hauthis since 2011-14: presence

2014-18: Injuries to Houthis - medical facilities Iran

General Sulemani also targeted couple of years ago.

Proven fact that the Axis of Resistance is established and is heavily supported by Iran.

Support to Iran:

Iran despite its weakness, drive such vast canvas of proxies? how?

support from 2 channels:

1. Russia: 800 million dollars arms deal in 2015

2. international arm deals through black market

Why?

Henry Kissinger in World Order: Whole Muslim word even Ottamans believed in coexistance. BUT Iran
wishes to establish its own Islamic order. And it did not tolerate any co-religionist order like Al-qaida.

However, this is largely based on Shia-Sunni issue.

In reality, Iran has a long history of proxies conflicts. from pre 1979 era.

Dilip Hiro: Since 1950s: 2 reasons

a. Oil Politics

b. Who will dominate the persian gulF

Implications:

1. Iran-Saudi Relations:

Primary arena of their proxies is Yemen. worst humanitarian crises of 21st century Yeman. Hauthi Rebels
vs Govt of Yemen
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2023 China mediation: KSA IRAN reapproachment

2022 Oman mediation

however, late 2023, (oct) again Hothi Rebels sponsored in the Red sea disturb international trade and
interest of KSA. So, mediations did not last long.

Proxies within a proxy

2. US-Iran Tensions and role of Iraq and Syria:

Not direct but exhibited in Iraq and Syria
Repeatedly US forces through counter terrorism task force present in Iraq and Syria.
2022: US-Iran deal expected but attack in Syria and Iraq increased around 60% to pressurize Iran for a
deal acceptable.
US-Iran: Nuclear deal. Both parties use proxies to turn the deal in their favor.
US uses Kurd forces of Syria
Iran uses Iraqi Militia

3. Israeli Concerns towards Iranian backed groups:

Hezbollah in Lebanon
Different groups in Syria (dozens)
Hamas in Ghaza
All these groups are provided on ground military training by Iranian forces
Therefore, Israel airstrikes in Iranian assets in Syria
Israel Doctrine of Double side effect since October 2023: Bomb in Gaza but message conveyed to Iran
60k Gazan died
Millions displaced
80% infrastructure of Gaza destroyed
Israel never responded with such horrific propositions
2014: 6600 Gazan death (maximum response)

4. Russian and Western Involvement in Syria:

Syria - complex proxies zone
Russia/ iran/ west all operating
2015-22: highly targeted strikes of Russian Syria. Russians targeted pro-KSA and Pro-US europe groups.
iran targets Israel from Syria.
Russians presence - eased Iranians proxies.
however, Feb 2020 Russians involvement decreased. So, Iranian groups targeted US/Western backed
installations in Syria/Iraq.
who has Syria has middle east. Syria has become the matter of national interest for all the regional
players.

5. Turkey's Role in Northern Syria:

Dangerous proxy in Middle East by Turkey.
No territorial claims of other players, but Turkey claims northern areas of Syria.
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Turkey targets Kurd forces in northern Syria because of the territorial claims and terrorism in Turkey due
to Kurd forces
2016; organized military invasions in northern Syria.
US support Kurd. developed a force : Syrian Democratic forces which target Turkey. Horrific proposition.
Turkey NATO ally or US Ally.
These Kurd forces - shrunk ISIS on ground in Syria. Turkey

6. Economic Implication:
21 century post Arab spring.
Potentially 50% of GDPs depleted; Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, KSA, Israel Iran, which could have been
improved by 50%.
65-70% (ROUND FIGURE0 resource depletion
30% of infrastructure loss overall.
worst humanitarian crisis of 21st century in Yemen
Proxies dynamics never ending
result in: global power dynamics, regional power struggle
involvement of international player and regional player which incorporate non muslim terrorist groups
in Middle East
Althought, last one and half decades, 2 player into direct conflict. April 2024 Swift response by bombing
undisclosed areas near Ispahan. However, chances that these proxies will continue.

Solutions:

1. Historical Solution> Go back to 1920s/30s/40s

Redrawing the map of middle east. 1920s/30s/40s: states. no states developed on rights of self-
determination.
Syria: Kurd/Shia/Sunni yet made one state
Jordan: created no race no separate nations but crafted out
Iraq: kurds/Shias/Sunni
Palestine: No justice and Israel expanded.
wishful thinking but highly impossible

2. Unidimensional Economies be transcended into diversified economies:

No element of interdependence but competition for oil economies.
Like UAE and Qatar diversified their economies so less role in direct proxies.
Iran, Syria, Iran, Yemen, KSA needs to diversify their economies in order to reduce the elements of
proxies.

3. Palestine as a separate state:

Core/base for proxies that players use.

Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yeman highly vocal k vo jo bhi karrahe he Palestine k lie karahe he. tho inki ye bahane
kahthm hojayege.
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TOPIC 2; Possible Solutions of Israel Palestine Solution:

1. One-state solution; Single democratic state. all citizens have equal rights. + all refugees be
recalled mostly from Jordan including Jews and Muslims. Lebanon runs in the same patterns
although not very idea but is better. Lebanon me 30-35% Christians. However, opposition from
conservative Jews who had the wish of owning a pure Jewish majority state. + Jerusalem ka kia
status hoga?

2. Two-state Solution: April 2024 resolution but vetoed by US. The cornerstone of International
peace efforts. Mix voices in Israel. Moderate are in its favor to maintain peace. Some pre-1967
territories, some say at current state. Secondly, at governmental level this is not welcomed. The
question again is Jerusalem control. suggested as common capital of both states. but higlly
unlikely. Palestinians views: Hardliner in local population want the entirety of the land and
consider Jews as Intruders. Alfatheh welcome two-state solution but with pre-1967 boundaries.
Hamas controversial position. Neither completely owns it, nor claims the entire Palestine.

3. Confederation: Union of these two states. autonomous with unity of some governmental
functions. Economic unity, imports/exports, security wise single army, single policing system.
but autonomous in day to day affairs. issues: sovereignty, foreign policy, intermingling of
populations (Jew are very sensitive), relative poverty high in Palestine so Jew not in its favor.

4. Economic Development: 80% poverty even pre-Oct, 2023. backwardness provides recruitment
for Hamas. Improve living standard, job oppurtunities. less violence. economic prosperity = less
violent political solutions. Largely highlighted from EU forum.

5. Arab-Israel Conflict: Palestine ka issue chota issue. jab thak Israel or Arbo k darmyan issue hal
naho htoha ye hal naho hosakta. is lie ziada western players ne Arab-Israel k issue par kam kia
gaya. 1960 Jordan to accept Israel. 1979 Egypt. 2020 Abraham Accord. to pacify the Arab-Israel
conflict. Mostly wars between Arab and Israel. 1948- Egypt against Israel

Conclusion:

solution according to 1948 UN Resolution.

Jewish State and Palestine

Jerusalem under UN Control

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26th April: IMEC / I2U2

Topic 1: IMEC: India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor

Officially signed in the form of MOU
10th Sept 2023 in G20 session in India.
Ambitious
Purpose: It seeks to enhance economic integration and infrastructural development in India, ME, E.
New avenue for trade and transportation
Critic: Counter BRI

Prospects: Objective:
Trade, energy, security, economic collaborations
Key ports in India ( Mundra, Jawahar L.N Ports) connect with ports of Middle east ( Fujairah + Jabal Ali)
Railway line from ME (for shipments, logistics) to enter Europe through Mediterranean sea.

Benefits:
1. India; Connectivity with Middle Eastern market
2. West: Red sea and Yemen: vulnerable security wise and piracy. This route will replace this
corridor of uncertainty.
3. US: safe path to the growing influence of China in Indian Ocean.
4. Global Trade: 2 chock points over burdened. Malacca Strait and Suez Canal. Decrease the
burden on these traditional paths.
5. Middle East: Chinese investment in ports fully functional - against Middle Eastern ports. so, it is
important for relevancy of Middle eastern posts.
This IMEC maintains the relevance of Middle Eastern ports

Challenges:

: Complete peace and control of Israel is highly desirable for its timely completion. Just like for
CPEC Balochistan. 10th September this development. 7th October Gaza-Israel. Gazans being
shrunk. IMEC passage passes through these areas. Greece is it European hub.

Implications for Pakistan:

challenge as well as window of opportunity.

Being its part: benefits; connectivity with new markets. but subject to conditions. Develop relations with
Israel.
Challenges: Diplomatic relations with Israel due to indigenous pressure not possible.
India cornering + pressurizing Pakistan.

Options with Pakistan:

1. Engage in Diplomacy: first with Middle East. Pak cannot directly join it. However, it can be done
with investment from Middle East. SIFC. Middle East investment = neutralizing the Indian
pressure.
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TOPIIC 2: I2U2:
Not formally signed treaty
Group meeting of INDIA, ISREAL, US, UAE
2023 July
Strategic alliance with no formal treaty
Understanding for economic cooperation, joint venture in six key areas:
1. water security
2. energy security
3. food security
4. transportation
5. health security
6. space exploration
West Asian Quad by Media Scholar
Original Quad: Japan, Australia, India, US

Objectives:
1. Private Sector of 4 countries will do investment in:
a. modernizing the infrastructure
b. low carbon initiatatives and
c. public health etc.
d.
2. Address the food issue of Israel and UAE
2 billion dollars investment in Madras and Gujrath . In response, renewable energy projects in Gujrat for
sustainable developments.

Strategic and Economic Benefits:

1. China Russia counter balance
2. Abraham Accord Support: by UAE and US. Indian support will benefit Muslim image holding

Connection Between I2U2 and IMEC

I2U2: 2022

3 of its players part of IMEC. backing from the US.

These two developments connectivity clarifies the growing influence of India in middle east.

Since last 2 decades, importance to MENA (Middle east and northern African) countries in Indian foreign
policies

2015-16: India-UAE collaborations

Impacts of the growing influence of India in Middle east on Pakistan:

1. Strategic Isolation

These countries in the east and west.

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Regional geo-politics

strategic ties

economic integrity

Pakistan is being sidelined. Visibly strategic isolation for Pakistan

2. Security Concerns:

Israel and India under I2U2

Militarization of AI: surveillance of India strengthened

Pakistan- aggressive design: Pakistan defense system weakening while India's strengthening.

3. Conventional Arms;

UAE, Qatar, KSA- Buyers from Pakistan

The more they align with India and Israel, we will lose this markets as well.

LESSONS FOR OTHERS

1. Marginalization will put Pakistan in the basket of China

Pakistan should enhance it diplomacy and convey to the world that Chinese tilt it not a choice but a
compulsion

2, Pakistan Disparate to Improve its relations with neighboring countries:

it is our necessity

39 MOUs with Iran; recent 10 billion dollar

Same pattern- needed towards India.

Regional connectivity requires neighboring relations

3. Bargaining Chip Vis a Vis US. However, never with China. Chines know Pakistan has no other choice

These developments in Middle East a wakeup call for Pakistan.