Journal Pre-proof

Rapid determination of source parameters of the M6.2 Jishishan earthquake in Gansu

Province and its application in emergency response

Yijiao Jia, Wenkai Chen, Dengjie Kang, Yuyang Peng, Yanping Sun, Dun Wang

PII: S2772-4670(24)00036-8
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eqrea.2024.100310
Reference: EQREA 100310

To appear in: Earthquake Research Advances

Received Date: 25 January 2024

Revised Date: 24 April 2024
Accepted Date: 24 April 2024

Please cite this article as: Jia, Y., Chen, W., Kang, D., Peng, Y., Sun, Y., Wang, D., Rapid determination
of source parameters of the M6.2 Jishishan earthquake in Gansu Province and its application in
emergency response, Earthquake Research Advances, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eqrea.2024.100310.

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition
of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of
record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published
in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that,
during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal
disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

© 2024 China Medical Cosmetology Press Co. Ltd. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of
KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.
 1 Rapid determination of source parameters of the M6.2 Jishishan earthquake in

2 Gansu Province and its application in emergency response

3 Yijiao Jia1, Wenkai Chen1*, Dengjie Kang1, Yuyang Peng2, Yanping Sun1, Dun Wang2
4 （1. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China;
5 2. China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan, 430000, Hubei, China）
6
7 Abstract: In this study, we swiftly determined the focal parameters(focal mechanism, seismic
8 imaging process, magnitude) of the Jishishan earthquake, leveraging a solved fault model to
9 promptly assess the intensity field and casualties. The investigation began by retrieving the source
10 mechanism through the P-wave initial motion and W-phase method. This enabled us to chart the

f
oo
11 spatial and temporal distribution of energy release in the source area via the back-projection
12 technique. Following this, we estimated the earthquake’s intensity field by merging the source
inversion findings with the ground motion prediction equation. This analysis facilitated the

r
13
14
15
-p
evaluation of earthquake casualties, utilizing the theoretical intensity field and a casualty assessment
model.Our findings indicate that the fault type is a thrust fault, characterized by a unilateral rupture
re
16 in the direction of NW, with a rupture length spanning approximately 10-15 km and a duration
17 ranging between 8-10 seconds. The earthquake’s magnitude varied from M 5.9 to M 6.2. The
lP

18 demarcated high-intensity areas, as per our intensity assessment, align closely with the actual survey
19 results. Furthermore, the predicted total casualties and identified critical rescue zones closely match
na

20 the real-world casualty figures. These insights offer crucial technical support for governmental
21 emergency command and rescue operations.
ur

22
23 Key words: source parameters; Seismic process imaging; Earthquake intensity; Casualties; Rapid
Jo

24 determination; Jishi Mountain earthquake

25 1.Basic information of earthquake

26 According to the official data from the China Earthquake Networks Center, a

27 magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck at 23:59:30 on December 18, 2023, with its epicenter

28 （35.70˚N, 102.79˚E） in the Bao’an Dongxiang Sala Autonomous County, Jishishan

29 Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Linxia, Gansu Province. The focal depth is 10 km. By

30 14:30 on December 20, 2023, a total of 423 aftershocks had been recorded, including

31 10 events≥ 3.0: 2 in the 4.0–4.9 range and 8 in the 3.0–3.9 range, with no events

32 between 5.0 and 6.9 magnitude[1].

1
33 This moderate earthquake resulted in significant casualties and economic losses.

34 The fieldwork team of the China Earthquake Administration assessed the earthquake’s

35 intensity distribution through on-site investigations and analysis of instrument intensity

36 data, aftershock patterns, focal mechanism solutions, and remote sensing imagery. The

37 maximum recorded intensity was VIII on the intensity scale[2]. The earthquake’s

38 epicenter was located at the southern end of the Lajishan Mountain fault system,

39 approximately 3 km from the nearest fault, identified as the northern margin of the Laji

40 Mountain fault (Fig. 1). The Lajishan fault zone comprises two arc-shaped extruding

thrust fault zones: the northern and southern margins of the Lajishan fault, both

f
41

oo
42 protruding to the northeast. Serving as the boundary for several late Cenozoic fault

r
43 basins—including the Xining Minhe Basin to the north, the Xunhualong Basin to the

44
-p
south, and the Linxia Basin to the east—this zone is characterized by several arc-shaped
re
45 discontinuous faults[3]. Historically, the area along the north and south sides of Laji
lP

46 Mountain has experienced over 20 moderate destructive earthquakes, with magnitudes

47 around 5. Additionally, within a 200 km radius of the epicenter, three earthquakes of

na

48 magnitude 6 or greater have occurred since 1900, each classified as isolated or main-
ur

49 aftershock events[4].
Jo

50
51 Fig. 1. The regional tectonic background of the Ms 6.2 earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu Province in 2023 (in the left

52 figure, the red line segment represents the fault distribution, the red dashed line represents the hidden fault

53 (Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration - Wang Aiguo Team), the red empty circle

2
54 represents the aftershock point up to 14:30 on December 20, 2023, and the red solid circle represents the historical

55 earthquake. The enlarged black box area is shown on the right.)

56 2. Fast source inversion

57 2.1 Source mechanism solution

58 Determination focal mechanisms is a fundamental issues in seismology.

59 Accurately determining the focal mechanism crucial for understanding the earthquake

60 to genesis environment and seismic intensity field. In this study, we used the P-wave

f
initial motion and W-phase method to determine the focal mechanism of the Jishishan

oo
61

62 earthquake, thereby elucidating the seismic fault’s nature and slip displacement

r
63 distribution. This analysis is further combined with data from the Global Centroid-
-p
64 Moment-Tensor (GCMT) project[5-6] and the seismic mechanism information released
re
65 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other seismological institutions.
lP

66 2.1.1 Initial motion of P-wave

Based on the method proposed by Hardebeck and Shearer[7], considering the

na

67

68 possible errors in seismic location and seismic velocity models, the error estimation of
ur

69 multiple combinations of reasonable focal depth and one-dimensional velocity models

Jo

70 is carried out by non-parametric method, and the uncertainty is expressed as a multi-

71 group focal mechanism of seismic events. If the set of acceptable mechanisms is tightly

72 packed, the solution is stable concerning the uncertainties of polarity and departure

73 Angle. In this paper, the waveform data provided by the China Earthquake Networks

74 Center[8] is used to obtain the best focal mechanism solution for the earthquake (Table

75 1). The fault plane solution of the earthquake shows that the earthquake is a thrust-type

76 event. Figure 2 presents the P-wave initial motion observed in this study alongside

77 results from other mechanisms, including a calculation of the Kagan angle for

78 comparison. The Kagan angle comparison yields 26.0 degrees between P-wave

79 initiation and the USGS focal mechanism, and 27.1 degrees between GCMT and USGS.

3
80 Considering Figure 2 and the Kagan angle values, the results of this study are generally

81 in alignment with the moment tensor solutions provided by GCMT and USGS.
82 Table 1 Results of the solution of the source mechanism of the Jishishan earthquake in Gansu Province

Node Ⅰ Node Ⅱ
No Direction Tendency sliding Angle/ Direction Tendency sliding Angle/ Source
/（°） /（°） （°） /（°） /（°） （°）
1 Initial motion of
306.6 63 88.4 130 27 93
P wave

2 319.6 42.9 84.9 146.5 47.3 94.7 W-phase

3 333 62 88 156 28 93 USGS

4 303 52 62 164 46 122 GCMT

f
oo
83 2.1.2 W-phase

84 According to the W-phase inversion method given by Hayes and Rivera[9], we use

r
85
-p
the global seismic network (GSN) waveform data to determine the focal mechanism
re
86 solution of the Ms 6.2 earthquake in Jishishan.The initial focal location was derived

from the preliminary report by the China Earthquake Networks Center, and through
lP

87

88 multiple iterations in both time and a three-dimensional spatial grid using Green’s
na

89 function calculated by the PREM model, we obtained the optimal focal mechanism

solution for the earthquake (Table 1). The W-phase inversion results were compared
ur

90

91 with those from other methods (Figure 3), revealing minimal discrepancies. The Kagan
Jo

92 angle comparison yielded 19.8 degrees between GCMT and USGS results and 22.4

93 degrees among USGS analyses.

94 After comparison, it can be seen (Table 1) that the geometric parameters of

95 seismogenic faults measured in this paper are consistent with GCMT and USGS, the

96 fault type is shown as thrust fault, and the measured strike is basically parallel to the

97 strike of Lajishan fault.

4
 Fig. 2. Source sphere obtained by combining the P-wave Fig. 3. Source sphere obtained by combining W-

initial motion data in this paper with USGS and GCMT phase data with USGS and GCMT fault plane in this

fault plane (the black line represents the P-wave initial paper (black lines (filled in red) represent W-phase

motion results in this paper, the red line represents the inversion results in this paper, red lines represent

f
oo
GCMT results, and the blue line represents the USGS GCMT results, and blue lines represent USGS

results). results).

r
98 2.2 Seismic process imaging -p
re
99 The back projection method ( specially beamforming on the sliding/moving
lP

100 window) facilitates the analysis of spatio-temporal energy release characteristics in

101 the focal region[10],enabling to determine the focal rupture process of this
na

102 earthquake. In this study, we utilizes the vertical component data from the European
ur

103 Seismic Network and the velocity signals from the GSN Global station in the range of

104 50 - 85°epicenter and -72 - 26°azimuth (Fig. 4(a)). Based on the earthquake
Jo

105 catalog provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), grid points were

106 established at a fixed depth with 1 km intervals within the focal area, creating a grid

107 covering 21 km×26 km(Fig. 4(a)). Set the length and offset of the cross-correlation

108 offset window to 8 s and 0.5 s, respectively. The threshold of the correlation

109 coefficient is set at 0.6. For each grid point, aligned waveforms are linearly

110 superimposed within the sliding window. The length of the sliding window is 10s, the

111 interval between sliding Windows is 1s, and the total window length is 100 s.

112 We filter the observed waveforms in the frequency bands of 0.5 - 2.0Hz,0.8 -

113 8.0Hz and 1.0-10.0Hz, and then carry on the back projection, and get similar rupture

114 modes. Fig. 4(a) displays a unilateral rupture characteristic with an obvious NW

5
115 direction,with the rupture extending approximately 10 - 15 km. As shown in Fig. 4(b),

116 since the window length of superposition used in this back projection is 10s, the

117 source energy superposition curve peaks at around 8s, so it is estimated that the

118 rupture duration of the source is between 8 - 10s. As depicted in Fig. 4(c), the

119 corresponding rupture speed ranges from 1 - 2 km/s, with the energy release occurring

120 slowly and cumulatively. Early aftershocks usually characterize the rupture fault of

121 the main earthquake. The location of the aftershock on the first day following the

122 Jishishan earthquake displays a fault pattern consistent with the back-projection

results, the focal mechanism of the main earthquake, and the regional tectonic

f
123

oo
124 background. The results in this study are similar to those obtained by Han Guangjie[11]

r
125 using fast inversion of strong earthquake waveform data from near field stations, and

126
-p
the earthquake rupture results obtained by Tang Xiongwei[12] using far-earthquake
re
127 back projection imaging.
lP
na
ur
Jo

Fig. 4(a) Distribution of fracture space (red lines represent faults; The blue filled circle represents energy points

of different energy sizes at a frequency of 0.5-2.0 HZ; The green circle represents the energy point at a frequency

of 0.8-8.0 HZ; The purple circle represents an energy point of 1.0-10.0HZ; The red circle represents the

aftershock, and the upper left corner is the distribution of stations selected by the back-projection.); Fig. 4(b)

Energy distribution with time after regularization; Fig. 4(c) Distribution of epicentral distance of energy points

with time.

6
128 2.3 Magnitude measurement

129 Some key parameters of destructive earthquakes are difficult to determine

130 accurately shortly after the earthquake. Surface wave magnitude Ms offers a

131 straightforward and convenient measure without complex signal processing. However,

132 these magnitude scales are empirical, and the resulting magnitudes may underestimate

133 the true energy[13]. The seismic moment is based on static source parameters such as

134 rupture length, area and average dislocation of seismic faults. It is relatively complex,

135 but it can be used as a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for the statistics of a

f
136 wide range of magnitudes and does not saturate large earthquakes.

oo
137 To accurately and reasonably evaluate the energy released by the earthquake, the

r
138 multi-magnitude parameters of the Jishishan earthquake in Gansu Province are inverted.
-p
139 Based on the surface wave magnitude formula of "Regulations on Earthquake
re
140 Magnitude: GB17740-2017"[14], waveform data within 2-130°from the epicenter of
lP

141 the central measuring station of the China Earthquake Network are selected to calculate

the Ms value of the earthquake. There are several methods to estimate the seismic
na

142

143 moment. In this paper, Mwp and Mww scale estimations are selected. Mwp takes the partial
ur

144 displacement of P-wave recorded by the broadband seismometer in the center of China
Jo

145 seismic network as an approximate source time function and integrates them[15]. Mww is

146 the result of the inversion of the centroid moment tensor based on the W-phase

147 method[9], as shown in Table 2.

148 Table 2 Measurement results of different magnitudes of main earthquakes in Jishishan earthquake, Gansu

149 Province

No Magnitude type CODE

Measuring mechanism
Ms Mw

1 6.0 6.2(Mwp)、5.9(Mww) This study -

2 6.1 5.9 (Mww) National Earthquake Information Center NEIC

Global Center of Moment Moment Tensor GCMT

3 5.9 6.1
Project Data Center

7
150 3. Intensity evaluation

151 3.1 On-site typical earthquake damage photos in different intensity areas

152 According to the earthquake intensity[2] released by the China Earthquake

153 Administration, the VII district covers an area of 331 km2 mainly involving 12

154 townships and 1 forest farm in Jishishan County, Linxia, Gansu Province, and Minhe

155 County, Haidong, Qinghai Province. In the area, most of the civil, brick and wood

156 houses, a few unfortified brick and concrete houses were seriously damaged, and a

f
157 small number of frame houses were moderately damaged. In Dahejia Town, Jishishan

oo
158 County, unfortified brick and concrete structures sustained considerable damage, as

r
159 depicted in Fig. 5(a). Conversely, fortified brick-concrete buildings exhibited shear

160
-p
cracks on their walls (Fig. 5(b)). Fig. 5(c) presents drone-captured imagery of a
re
161 landslide-induced mudflow in Jintian-Caotan Village. This landslide mudflow, a
lP

162 distinct geological event, occurred in Jintian Village and Caotan Village within

163 Zhongchuan Township, Minhe County, Haidong, Qinghai Province—proximal to the

na

164 earthquake’s epicenter. The resultant debris flow engulfed the area, burying houses
ur

165 under several meters of mud and claiming 20 lives.

Jo

166

8
167 Fig. 5(a). Collapsed houses in Dahejia Town, Jishishan County; Fig. 5(b). Shear cracks of houses in Dahejia

168 Town; Fig. 5(c). Jintian - Caotan Village landslide - mudflow (from Google image.)

169 The district encompasses 1,514 square kilometers and comprises 35 townships and

170 one forest farm. These include 17 townships in Jishishan County, Gai Xinping Forest

171 Farm, three townships each in Yongjing and Linxia Counties, eight townships in Minhe

172 County, three townships in Xunhua Salar Autonomous County, and one township in

173 Hualong Hui Autonomous County. Notably, the earth-brick house at No. 92, Ojia

174 Village, Daowei Tibetan Township, Xunhua County, experienced moderate damage

175 characterized by significant cracking, as shown in Fig. 6(a). Additionally, the structure

f
oo
176 of Taga Central Primary School in Taga Zang Township, Hualong County, while

177 primarily intact, sustained cracks in its infill walls, depicted in Fig. 6(b).

r
-p
re
lP
na
ur

178
179 Fig. 6(a). Damage to the wall of Ojia Village, Daowei Tibetan Township, Xunhua County; Fig. 6(b). Damage to
Jo

180 the filling wall of Taga Central Primary School in Taga Zang Township, Hualong County.

181 VI District covers an area of 6519 square kilometers, a total of 100 towns (streets)

182 and 1 nature reserve. Some houses in Zhongchuan Township, Minhe County, Qinghai

183 Province were slightly damaged, while others were relatively intact (Fig. 7(a)). The

184 self-built houses in Xinsi Township, Yongjing County, Gansu province were slightly

185 damaged by the earthquake, such as wall cracks and tiles falling (Fig. 7(b)).

9
186
187 Fig. 7(a). Slight damage of brick and wood houses in Zhongchuan Township, Minhe County, Qinghai Province;

188 Fig. 7(b). Minor damage to the walls of houses in Xinsi Township, Yongjing County, Gansu Province.

3.2 Rapid assessment of seismic intensity

f
189

oo
190 One of the critical components for accurately determining the impact range of an

r
191 earthquake is the evaluation of the ground motion field, often referred to as ground

192
-p
motion parameters. Internationally, significant initiatives like the United States’ East-
re
193 West Program and the NGA program have been led by experts from various institutions
lP

194 including the US Geological Survey (USGS), the Pacific Earthquake Engineering

195 Research Center (PEER-LL), and the Seismological Institute of the University of
na

196 Southern California (SECE). These programs have successfully established numerous
ur

197 Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) to date[16-19]. In China, attenuation

Jo

198 relationships for ground motion, which are derived from recorded data, often adopt

199 formulas from the western United States and Japan, modified to reflect local geological

200 and geomorphological conditions and bedrock characteristics[20].

201 This study utilizes a ground motion parameter attenuation model[21] based on

202 strong motion data from Japan, which has shown effectiveness in Western China. The

203 model is contingent on the shortest distance to the seismogenic fault, with source

204 inversion results from real-time seismology providing significant enhancements in

205 addressing this issue, as evidenced by successful applications in multiple

206 earthquakes[22-23]. In this study, seismic imaging inversion results are integrated with

207 the attenuation model to swiftly evaluate the earthquake’s intensity distribution.

208 According to Figure 4(b), the source’s rupture duration is approximately 8-10 seconds.

10
209 Consequently, data from 10 seconds prior to the source inversion are selected to depict

210 the rupture process in the intensity evaluation. Centered on the epicenter, a 500×500

211 km grid is established for a magnitude Mw5.9 earthquake. For each grid cell, the shortest

212 distance from the node to the energy point is calculated, followed by the determination

213 of the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) value per kilometer grid based on the attenuation

214 model. Subsequently, Vs30 data (USGS) are applied to perform site corrections on the

215 estimated PGV values, culminating in the rapid evaluation of earthquake intensity,

216 which is then compared with the “China Earthquake Intensity Scale: GB/T 17742-
[24]
2020” (Fig. 8).

f
217

r oo
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

218
219 Fig. 8. Quick assessment of seismic intensity (on the left, red lines represent fault distribution, red dashed lines

220 represent hidden faults (Wang Aiguo Team, Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration),

221 blue lines represent CEA isoseismic lines, and different color gradients in the bottom map represent different

222 intensity ranges assessed.)

223 As depicted in Figure 8, the elliptical shape of the high-intensity zones and the

224 NNW orientation of the long axis accurately mirror the earthquake’s rupture direction,

225 aligning well with the rupture scale. The area experiencing an intensity of VIII and

226 above encompasses Jishishan County in Gansu Province and Minhe County in Qinghai

227 Province, consistent with regions identified in field investigations.. The highest

228 intensity assessed for this earthquake is Ⅸ, which may be because the area is a loess

11
229 area, the sediment layer is thicker, and the field ground-to-ground vibration has a

230 significant amplification effect.

231 The intensity calculated by the model in this paper is compared with the intensity

232 in the field survey published by China Earthquake Administration (CEA) (Fig. 8). The

233 boundary of the high-intensity area is roughly consistent with the isoseismic line

234 published by CEA. However, the maximum intensity calculated by the model is IX

235 degrees, which is 1 degree higher than the actual investigation intensity. The area for

236 model evaluation is 364 square kilometers, and the area for field investigation is 331

square kilometers; The evaluation area of Degree VII is 1100 square kilometers, and

f
237

oo
238 the field investigation area of Degree VII is 1514 kilometers; The evaluation VI area

r
239 covers 3316 square kilometers, and the field investigation VI area covers 6519 square

240
-p
kilometers. The area of the high-intensity area evaluated by the model is slightly larger
re
241 than that of the actual investigation intensity area, which may be related to the
lP

242 characteristics of the method adopted in this paper (the process of source rupture and

243 the attenuation law of ground motion). The source rupture process inversion based on
na

244 back projection is based on far-field seismic station observation data, the source
ur

245 location may have a certain deviation, and the ground motion attenuation law has a

certain regional applicability, so there will be some evaluation errors. It is reasonable

Jo

246

247 to consider the earthquake phenomenon and regional social and economic factors in the

248 intensity evaluation, which leads to the deviation between the intensity map drawn and

249 the calculated results of the model.

250 Current methodologies allow for inversion results to be available within 10-20

251 minutes post-earthquake, with GMPE calculations and site corrections at grid points

252 completed swiftly (within 1 minute). This facilitates the generation of a rapid

253 assessment map of earthquake intensity in under 30 minutes so that accurate and

254 detailed emergency command and decision support data can be quickly provided to

255 analyze and judge the worst-hit areas. According to the evaluation intensity results,

12
256 reasonable arrangements and deployment of on-site rescue teams, emergency relief

257 materials, disaster loss investigators, etc.

258 3.3 Result Analysis

259 In this study, the ground motion values recorded by 174 stations in the Jishishan

260 earthquake area were selected to compare the model ground motion field (Fig. 9). The

261 residual difference between the PGV values recorded by the strong seismic stations and

262 the PGV values calculated by the model was used to obtain the variation trend of the

263 residual difference with the epicenter distance, to evaluate the model results. The

f
oo
264 intensity of on-site earthquake investigation released by the China Earthquake

265 Administration of the Ministry of Emergency Management is quantitatively compared

r
266 -p
with the intensity of the model in this paper. The back projection energy points of the

first 10s in the seismic process imaging were screened, and the profile line m-n was
re
267

268 drawn along the general direction of the energy points in the intensity diagram, and the
lP

269 changing trend of the model results along the fault direction and the field investigation
na

270 intensity were analyzed (Fig. 9).

ur
Jo

271
272 Fig. 9. Analysis of theoretical intensity diagram results (the blue triangle is the strong vibration station, the red

273 circular dot is the back projection energy point, and the virtual straight line is the section made along the general

274 direction of the energy point).

275 3.3.1 Comparison between theoretical calculation and actual Observation

13
276 Fig 10(a) shows the distribution of ground motion residuals along with the

277 epicenter distance. It can be seen that the near-field area has a large degree of dispersion.

278 In the far field area, the residual handicap is basically on the zero line, which indicates

279 that it is in good agreement with the actual seismic observation records. The trend line

280 fitted with residual handicap shows that the variation of residual error is controlled in

281 the stable range, and the variation of residual error is relatively gentle with the increase

282 of epicenter distance.

283 3.3.2 Comparison between theoretical intensity map and actual published intensity map

Fig 10(b) shows the assessment results along the m-n direction of the fault and the

f
284

oo
285 intensity variation trend of the CEA isoseismic line. In the m-n direction, although the

r
286 estimated intensity is one degree different from the highest intensity shown by the

287
-p
isoseismic line, and the model intensity decays faster than the actual intensity, the
re
288 boundary and variation trend of each intensity region are almost the same.
lP
na
ur
Jo

289
290 Fig. 10(a). Relation between PGV residuals and epicentral distance (the black hollow square represents PGV

291 residuals, and the red dashed line is the trend line fitted according to residuals). Fig. 10(b). The variation trend of

292 model intensity and survey intensity along the profile line (black dashed line is field survey intensity, black solid

293 line is model intensity).

294 4. Quick casualty assessment

295 4.1 Casualty assessment

296 The earthquake resulted in substantial casualties, including 117 deaths and 781

297 injuries in Gansu Province[25] (reported as of 8:00 on December 22), and 34 deaths and

298 198 injuries in Qinghai Province[25-26] (reported as of December 31, 2023). Notably, the

14
299 majority of deaths in Gansu occurred in the VIII intensity district, with Dahejia Town

300 reporting 80 deaths, Liuji Township 23, Shiyuan Town 8, and Blow Ma Tan Town 3.

301 Outside the VIII district, one fatality was reported in each of the three townships. In

302 Qinghai, most casualties were recorded in Zhongchuan Township (23 deaths), followed

303 by Guanting Township (9 deaths), and Gangou Township (2 deaths). This study

304 employs the assessment method outlined in “Earthquake Disaster Emergency

305 Assessment: GB/T 30352-2013”[27], which utilizes intensity and population data per

306 kilometer grid. This approach considers the earthquake’s characteristics and the higher

casualty rate in rural areas to estimate and map the distribution of potential fatalities

f
307

oo
308 across different grid units.

r
309 4.2 Result Analysis -p
The casualty model based on the population kilometer grid was used for
re
310

311 assessment, and the statistical results of the casualties of the Jishishan earthquake were
lP

312 obtained (Fig. 11) and the distribution of deaths in the affected areas (Fig. 12). The
na

313 statistical results of casualties were divided into different provinces of Gansu and

314 Qinghai, and were compared with the actual values. The total death toll assessment
ur

315 result is slightly larger than the actual death toll, which is caused by the overestimation
Jo

316 of the death population in Qinghai Province by the model, but the overall difference is

317 not large. The overall assessment of the number of injured is small, which is speculated

318 to be caused by the poor overall seismic fortification in the affected areas and regional

319 characteristics.

15
320
321 Figure 11 Comparison between the model and the actual statistical data

f
oo
322 As shown in Fig 12 the density of fatalities within each cell network is indicated

by a color gradient, highlighting areas of concentration that are critical for rescue

r
323

324
-p
operations. The distribution of fatalities, predominantly in compressive burial scenarios,
re
325 is situated in or around the VIII intensity area of the CEA intensity circle. This includes
lP

326 Dahejia Town, Liugou Township, Shiyuan Township, the urban area of Jishishan

327 County, Zhaizigou Township, Blow Ma Tan Town, and Guanting Town in Zhongchuan
na

328 Township area. Notably, Dahejia Town, where the color gradient is most intense, has
ur

329 the highest estimated number of fatalities at 27, marking it as a principal area for rescue

330 efforts. Liugou Township and Liuji Township areas are represented by predominantly
Jo

331 red grids, indicating widespread disaster with 31 and 20 fatalities respectively. In

332 Qinghai Province, Zhongchuan Township recorded the highest fatality count with 23

333 deaths. Interestingly, there were no casualties in Liugou Township of Jishishan County,

334 possibly due to robust seismic construction in the area. Overall, the model’s estimates

335 of fatality distribution and identification of priority rescue areas are largely accurate.

336 Currently, using the theoretical impact field model, casualty statistics and

337 distribution maps can be rapidly generated (in less than 1 minute), providing crucial

338 technical support for emergency rescue operations.

16
 f
339

oo
340 Fig. 12. Death distribution diagram (The number of deaths in the cell network is represented by color gradient, and

341 the enlarged figure of the black box in Fig. 12(a) is shown in Fig. 12(b), representing the death distribution of

r
342 people in different towns.)
-p
re
343 5. Conclusion and discussion
lP

344 In this study, the focal mechanism of the Jishishan earthquake is solved by using
na

345 P-wave initial motion and W-phase method. Based on the real-time waveform data

346 observed by the European Seismic Station, the source process is determined by the back
ur

347 projection method (beamforming on the sliding/moving window), to analyze the

Jo

348 earthquake. The magnitudes of Ms and Mw are inverted and compared with those of

349 other institutions. In addition, based on the solved fault model, the seismic intensity

350 field is quickly estimated and the earthquake casualties are assessed. The results show

351 that:

352 1. The fault type of the earthquake rupture is thrust type, which has a stronger

353 destructive effect than the earthquake of the same magnitude; The rupture process of

354 the focal point shows a unilateral rupture characteristic in the obvious NW direction,

355 which has a high consistency with the spatial distribution of aftershocks occurring on

356 the first day after the earthquake. The calculated rupture scale is about 10-15 km, the

357 rupture duration of the focal point is about 8s-10s, the corresponding rupture velocity

17
358 is 1-2 km/s, and the energy release is slow and cumulative. The magnitude ranges from

359 M5.9 to M6.2, which is considered a moderate earthquake.

360 2. Based on the source inversion results and the ground motion attenuation model,

361 the seismic intensity of this earthquake was quickly assessed (generated in less than 30

362 minutes). The evaluation results can roughly get the scope of the worst-affected areas

363 (Ⅷ and above areas), and the scope of the worst-affected areas is consistent with the

364 actual survey results. The estimated maximum intensity is one degree different from

365 the actual result, and the area of the assessed high intensity area is slightly larger than

the actual area, which may be related to the site amplification characteristics of the loess

f
366

oo
367 area and the method used in this paper (source rupture inversion and ground motion

r
368 attenuation model).

369
-p
3. Earthquake casualties can be quickly assessed based on the evaluation intensity,
re
370 population kilometer grid and death rate of personnel with different intensity in this
lP

371 paper. The total number of personnel deaths assessed is close to the actual result, and

372 the dead are basically distributed in the area of the field investigation Ⅷ, which is more
na

373 consistent with the actual situation, and can provide technical support for the
ur

374 government's emergency command and rescue.

According to previous studies by our team[22][28-30], the back-projection method

Jo

375

376 accurately evaluates the seismic intensity of large earthquakes (Mw≥7.0). However, its

377 benefits are less pronounced for smaller magnitude earthquakes. In cases of smaller

378 magnitudes, the limited energy release and smaller rupture lengths can hinder effective

379 source inversion. Despite these challenges, findings from this study demonstrate that

380 the proposed method can still approximate the rupture direction and scale for moderate

381 to strong earthquakes. This capability is instrumental in rapidly assessing earthquake

382 intensity and estimating casualties. Moreover, it enables a more precise determination

383 of the extent of severely affected areas and the spatial distribution of casualties. Such

384 data are vital for supporting the emergency command and rescue operations conducted

385 by the government and emergency management departments.

18
386 Acknowledgments

387 Thanks to the fieldwork team of Gansu Earthquake Agency and Qinghai

388 Earthquake Agency for the disaster information provided for this study, to the Gansu

389 Earthquake Agency for the aftershock and strong earthquake observation data provided

390 for this study, and to the researcher Wang Aiguo of China Earthquake Administration

391 Lanzhou Institute of Seismology for the fault data provided. This research was funded

392 by the Basic Research Fund of the Institute of Earthquake Prediction, China Earthquake

393 Administration (2023IESLZ04) and the National Key R&D Program of the Republic

f
oo
394 of China (Grant Number 2017YFB0504104).

r
395 References -p
re
396 [1] China Earthquake Network Center Earthquake Research Advances(http://data.earthquake.cn).
lP

397 [2] Earthquake administration of Gansu Province. 2023.

398 http://www.gsdzj.gov.cn/info/1024/20233.htm
399 [3] LI Zhimin, LI Yanjing, TIAN Qinjian, et al. 2014. Study on the Ｒelationship between
na

400 Paleoseismic on Laji Mountain Fault and Catastrophic Event on Lajiashan Site[J]. journal of
401 seismological research ,37(S1): 109-115.
ur

402 [4] Yuan Daoyang, Zhang Peizhen, Lei Zhongsheng, et al. 2005. A Preliminary Study on the New
403 Activity Features of the Lajishan Mountain Fault Zone in Qinghai Province[J]. Earthquake
Jo

404 Research In China, 21(1): 93-102.

405 [5] Dziewonski A M, Chou T A, Woodhouse J H. 1981. Determination of earthquake source
406 parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity[J]. Journal of
407 Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 86(B4): 2825-2852.
408 [6] Ekström G, Nettles M, Dziewoński A M. 2012. The global CMT project 2004–2010:
409 Centroid-moment tensors for 13,017 earthquakes[J]. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,
410 200: 1-9.
411 [7] Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Peter M. Shearer. 2002. A New Method for Determining First-Motion
412 Focal Mechanisms. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92 (6): 2264-2276.
413 [8] International Earthquake Science Data Center. Doi:10.11998/IESDC.
414 [9] Hayes G P, Rivera L, Kanamori H. 2009. Source inversion of the W-Phase: real-time
415 implementation and extension to low magnitudes[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 80(5): 817-
416 822.
417 [10] Wang D, Mori J, Koketsu K. 2016. Fast rupture propagation for large strike-slip
418 earthquakes[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 440: 115-126.

19
419 [11] Guangjie Han, Danqing Dai, Yu Li, Nan Xi,et al. 2024. Rapid report of the December 18,
420 2023 MS 6.2 Jishishan earthquake[J]. Earthquake Research Advances, 100287.
421 [12] Xiongwei Tang, Rumeng Guo, Yijun Zhang, et al. 2024. Kinematic rupture of the 2023 Ms
422 6.2 Jishishan earthquake[J]. Earthquake Research Advances, 100288.
423 [13] Yao Q, Wang D, Fang L, et al. 2019. Rapid estimation of magnitudes of large damaging
424 earthquakes in and around Japan using dense seismic stations in China[J]. Bulletin of the
425 Seismological Society of America, 109(6): 2545-2555.
426 [14] General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's
427 Republic of China, Standardization Administration. 2017. General ruler for earthquake
428 magnitude：GB17740-2017 [S].Beijing:Standards Press of China.
429 [15] Tsuboi S, Abe K, Takano K, et al. 1995. Rapid determination of Mw from broadband P
430 waveforms[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 85(2): 606-613.
431 [16] Abrahamson N, Silva W. 2008. Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA ground-motion

f
oo
432 relations[J]. Earthquake spectra, 24(1): 67-97.
433 [17] Boore D M, Atkinson G M.2008. Ground-motion prediction equations for the average
horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01 s and

r
434
435
436
10.0 s[J]. Earthquake spectra, 24(1): 99-138.-p
[18] Campbell K W, Bozorgnia Y. 2008. NGA ground motion model for the geometric mean
re
437 horizontal component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% damped linear elastic response spectra for
438 periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s[J]. Earthquake spectra, 24(1): 139-171.
lP

439 [19] Chiou B S J, Youngs R. 2008. An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak
440 ground motion and response spectra[J]. Earthquake spectra, 24(1): 173-215.
na

441 [20] Liu P, Xu Z W, Luo Q F. 2022. Advances in ground motion attenuation relationship of
442 Chinese mainland[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinicad. 44(5): 797-809.
ur

443 [21] Zhang, C., Chen, W.K., Si, H., 2021. J. Intensity rapid evaluation of Maduo M7.4 earthquake
444 in Qinghai Province,2021[J]. Chin Earthqake Eng J. 43 (4), 876–882.
Jo

445 [22] Chen W, Wang D, Zhang C, et al. 2022. Estimating Seismic Intensity Maps of the 2021 M w
446 7.3 Madoi, Qinghai and Mw 6.1 Yang bi, Yunnan, China Earthquakes[J]. Journal of Earth Science,
447 33(4): 839-846.
448 [23] Kang D, Chen W, Zhao H, et al. 2023. Rapid assessment of the September 5, 2022 MS 6.8 Lu
449 ding earthquake in Sichuan, China[J]. Earthquake Research Advances, 3(2): 100214.
450 [24] State Administration for Market Regulation, Standardization Administration. 2020. The
451 Chinese seismic intensity scale:GB/T 17742-2020[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China.
452 [25]XINHUANET.2023.http://www.news.cn/politics/20231223/738f9ed92b5740a68537dfc180bd
453 bde0/c.html
454 [26] CCTV com. 2023. https://export.shobserver.com/baijiahao/html/699551.html
455 [27] China Seismological Bureau. 2014. GB/T 30352-2013 Assessment of earthquake disaster
456 situation in emergency period[S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China.
457 [28] Chen W, Rao G, Kang D, et al. 2023. Early report of the source characteristics, ground
458 motions, and casualty estimates of the 2023 M w 7.8 and 7.5 Turkey earthquakes[J]. Journal of
459 Earth Science, 34(2): 297-303.

20
460 [29] Chen, W., et al. 2022. Rapid Estimation of Seismic Intensities Using a New Algorithm That
461 Incorporates Array Technologies and Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). Bulletin of
462 the Seismological Society of America, 112(3): p. 1647-1661.
463 [30]Peng Yuyang, Wang Dun. 2023. Multiple point source-based W-phase inversion and its
464 application to the Sumatra MW9.1 earthquake in 2004[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,
465 45(1): 169-180.

f
r oo
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

21
Acknowledgment

This research was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of the Institute of
Earthquake Prediction, China Earthquake Administration (2023IESLZ04) and the
Gansu Provincial Key Talent Project.

f
r oo
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo
Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal

relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo