March 28, 2024

EVENT REPORT | Sector: Insurance (General)

Recommendation : ADD

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Current Price : Rs 1683

Target Price : 1875
Digital initiatives, improvement in Motor and
Potential Return : +11%
thrust on health indemnity remain key themes
We participated in the Analyst Meet held by ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI) on Thursday
Stock data (as on March 28, 2024)
and gleaned the following key takeaways (1) ICICIGI has, wholeheartedly, adopted
the Cloud and this has led to material beneficial impact (2) ICICIGI possesses a very Nifty 22,333
52 Week h/l (Rs) 1735 / 1055
robust internal data science practice, which is having a significant impact on
Market cap (Rs/USD mn) 812069 / 9740
business outcomes (3) The existing digital solutions are continuing to ramp up,
Outstanding Shares (mn) 493
ICICIGI is managing climate risk better, doing better in Motor and focusing on health
6m Avg t/o (Rs mn): 953
indemnity business. Div yield (%): 0.6
ICICIGI has, wholeheartedly, adopted the Cloud and this has led to Bloomberg code: ICICIGI IN
NSE code: ICICIGI
material beneficial impact
One of the key initiatives with regard to the digital eco-system is ICICIGI adopting the Stock performance
Cloud. Merely moving the Cloud was not enough and hence, ICICIGI has ensured it ICICIGI Nifty
200
converted its operations to becoming Cloud-native. Following this, the core
transformation program, Orion was kicked off. The 4 key aims of Cloud adoption in 150
enhancing Agility, Reliability, Security and Efficiency. In terms of outcomes, there has
been a 5x reduction in incidence rates on the motor intermediary platform, the success 100

percentage for price quotes has gone up 1.2x and there has been a 30% improvement in
50
productivity for customer support teams. From a security perspective, the NIST and CIS Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23
score are both above 95%. In terms of cost control, servers can be scaled down based on 1M 3M 1Y
demand. Production cloud cost has stayed stable over the last 2 years even though policy Absolute return -2.4% 17.1% 58.0%
count has moved up nearly 2x.
Shareholding pattern (As of Dec’23 end)
ICICIGI possesses a very robust internal data science practice, which is Promoter 47.9%
having a significant impact on business outcomes FII+DII 41.1%
ICICIGI has flagged that it has a lot of data available to it and is obtaining a significant Others 11.0%
amount of data from the insurance eco-system itself, particularly the IIB or Insurance
∆ in stance
Information Bureau. Data products have been developed to manage various customer (1-Yr) New Old
journeys. For the Motor business, Vahan possesses data available to all players but Rating ADD ADD
ICICIGI has married its data to it to extract incremental benefit. This allows ICICIGI to Target Price 1875 1850
distribute products targeted on a micro-segment basis. Further, ICICIGI has put
Financial Summary
together One View for customers, which helps ICICIGI map out the customer life cycle
Rs mn FY24E FY25E FY26E
and understand the nuances in customer behaviour. With the agent data product, one of NEP 170,574 197,958 230,540
the goals is to prevent agents from leaking business to other players. Due to the claims % yoy 15.1% 16.1% 16.5%
data product, the experience in the 2015 Chennai flood was not repeated in the 2023 Op profit 27,721 34,507 39,919
% yoy 16.4% 24.5% 15.7%
Chennai flood since ICICIGI had taken mitigating steps. The incidence rates are 2x lower PAT 18,224 23,327 26,832
in the motor business. Lastly, the use of Generative AI has resulted in a benefit of 30% in % yoy 5.4% 28.0% 15.0%
productivity and the RIA chatbot has seen a 33% reduction in response time. EPS (Rs) 37.1 47.5 54.6
P/E (x) 45.4 35.5 30.8
Existing digital solutions are doing well, ICICIGI is managing climate risk, P/B (x) 7.0 6.1 5.3
doing better in Motor and focusing on the health indemnity business RoE (%) 15.4% 17.2% 17.1%

The growth in GWP sourced through ILTakecare has increased 3.2x YoY in 3Q and there
∆ in earnings estimates
has been a 2x rise in DIY journeys using RIA chatbot in 3Q. Risk from climate change is a
Rs. FY24E FY25E FY26E
key emerging risk since the frequency of nat cats has gone up. However, ICICIGI has EPS (New) 37.1 47.5 54.6
been able to enhance data quality to manage this risk better and offset the rise in nat cat EPS (Old) 37.1 47.4 54.5
events. ICICIGI’s market share in the motor segment has moved up in recent times. % change -0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
While ICICIGI would not link this only to digital and analytics initiatives, modeling has
helped ICICIGI cover white spaces and, at the same time, avoid riskier business. Health
indemnity has been an area of fast growth for ICICIGI but the decision to grow this
business faster was taken only 18-24 months ago. The intention is to take the current
3% market share to 4.5-5% in about 3-5 years. SHIVAJI THAPLIYAL
Head of Research
We maintain an ADD rating on ICICIGI with a revised price target of Rs & Lead Analyst
1875 shivaji.thapliyal@ysil.in
We value ICICIGI at 39x FY25 P/E for an FY23-26E EPS CAGR of 16%. At our target, the
implied FY25E P/B is 6.8x whereas the prospective RoE profile is at ~17%.
SIDDHARTH RAJPUROHIT, Analyst
(See Comprehensive meeting takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour.)

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 1
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

COMPREHENSIVE ANALYST MEET

TAKEAWAYS
Digital strategy
▪ Cloud initiatives
• One of the key initiatives with regard to the digital eco-system is to adopt the Cloud.
• ICICIGI is first large insurer to move its on-premises data center to the Cloud.
• Merely moving the Cloud is not enough and hence, ICICIGI has ensured it converted its
operations to becoming Cloud-native so that the value from Cloud could be unlocked.
▪ Data analytics
• ICICIGI has a lot of data available to it and is obtaining a significant amount of data from
the insurance eco-system itself, particularly the IIB (Insurance Information Bureau).
• Data products have been developed to manage various customer journeys.
• There are as many as 50 data scientists who are working within various business units.
• Generative AI, which has the potential to be disruptive, is being adapted through
experimentation and proof of concept.

Elaboration on Cloud initiatives

▪ History
• ICICIGI has been using Microsoft Cloud since around 2015 but in 2HFY22, it moved the
core genesis platform to the Cloud.
▪ Redesign for Cloud
• Applications have been redesigned to make them native to the Cloud.
• Nysa, ILTakecare and the core platform have all been modernized.
▪ Transformation program
• The core transformation program, Orion, has been kicked off.
• The 4 key aims of Cloud adoption in enhancing Agility, Reliability, Security and Efficiency.
▪ More on Agility aspects
• The time to market for new products has been reduced.
• Google Flutter has been used for improve ILTakecare and deployed across platforms.
• The pricing engine has been modernized to deliver quotes faster.
▪ Outcomes from Cloud initiatives
• There has been a 5x reduction in incidence rates on the motor intermediary platform.
• The success percentage for price quotes has gone up 1.2x.
• There has been a 30% improvement in productivity for customer support teams.
• From a security perspective, the NIST and CIS score are both above 95%.
• Cost control
o Now, servers can be scaled down based on demand and cost saved.
o Production cloud cost has stayed stable over the last 2 years even though policy
count has moved up nearly 2x.

Elaboration on Data Science Effort

▪ Basics
• ICICIGI makes more than 150,000 price quotes every hour.
• The company used AWS for applications infrastructure, Azure for data infrastructure and
Google for digital.

(Meeting takeaways continue on the next page)

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 2
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

▪ Vahan
• Vahan possesses data with 90% accuracy and is available to all players but ICICIGI has
married its data to it to extract incremental benefit.
• It allows ICICIGI to distribute products with focus on a micro-segment basis.
▪ One View
• ICICIGI has put together One View for customers with 78% accuracy.
• This helps ICICIGI map out the customer life cycle and understand the nuances in
customer behaviour.
▪ Agent data product
• One of the aims is to prevent agents from leaking business to other players, including for
high-performing agents.
• There is also an intention to prevent fraud committed by agents.
▪ Claims data product
• Disease, hospital and geographical data is being fed into a machine learning engine to
identify fraud.
• The experience in the 2015 Chennai flood was not repeated in the 2023 Chennai flood
since ICICIGI had taken mitigating steps.
• The classification of business into low risk, medium risk and high risk had allowed ICICIGI
to focus on low risk business and avoid high risk business.
• The incidence rates are 2x lower in the motor business.
▪ New-age technology / Generative AI
• The use of Generative AI has resulted in a benefit of 30% in productivity.
• The RIA chatbot leverages Generative AI now and there has been a 33% reduction in
response time.

Update on existing digital solutions

▪ ILTakecare app
• Number of downloads of the ILTakecare app has increased 2.1x YoY, taking cumulative
downloads to 9m.
• The growth in GWP sourced through ILTakecare has increased 3.2x YoY in 3Q.
▪ RIA bot
• There has been a 2x rise in DIY journeys using RIA chatbot in 3Q.
• The DIY journeys via the RIA voicebot has risen 1.4x.

Climate change risk management

▪ Risk from climate change is a key emerging risk since the frequency of nat cats has gone up.
▪ However, in consonance with adopting a proactive approach, ICICIGI has been able to manage
this risk better to offset the rise in nat cat events.
▪ ICICIGI has been able to capture more detailed information such as latitude and longitude.
▪ Now, ICICIGI is able to provide real time information to customers before a cyclone hits.

Motor segment
▪ ICICIGI market share in the motor segment has moved up in recent times.
▪ However, ICICIGI would not link this only due to digital and analytics initiatives.

(Meeting takeaways continue on the next page)

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 3
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

▪ At the same time, modeling has helped ICICIGI cover white spaces and, at the same time, to
avoid riskier business.
▪ ICICIGI intends to operate in the 9.5-11% market share range, depending on the
opportunities.

Medical indemnity business

▪ Health indemnity has been an area of fast growth for ICICIGI but the decision to grow this
business faster was taken only 18-24 months ago.
▪ The intention is to take the current 3% market share to 4.5-5% in about 3-5 years.
▪ It may be noted that, when considered along with the group health practice, the combined
health insurance business is in the top 5.
▪ Priya Deshmukh has been hired to head the Health products business and she will further help
build the hospital network.
▪ OPD business
• Ideally, ICICIGI would want to identify disease early in a customer’s life and prevent
requirement of in-patient services.
• It may be noted that it is OPD where maximum out-of-pocket expenses are currently
taking place.
• OPD has been launched by ICICGI on cashless basis and the attempt is to converge OPD
and IPD.
• The ILTakecare app has been developed in manner that brings in a connected eco-system.
• However, there is no institutional approach yet and ICICIGI wants to prevent fraud by
having a close network and cashless approach.
• The products built would have simultaneous focus on profitability as well as affordability.

Direct to consumer channel

▪ ICICIGI is aware that the D2C channel is critical and it will take an appropriate call on the
same.
▪ The D2C channel will compound faster than other channels.
▪ The website and the ILTakecare app bring in synergies in this regard.

Retail branding
▪ While ICICIGI takes pride in its commercial business, three-fourth of its business is retail in
nature.
▪ Expenses on brand awareness will continue as the company still manages to deliver a CoR of
102-103% after these expenses.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 4
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

ANNUAL FINANCIALS
Exhibit 1: Profit & Loss Statement
Rs mn FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Gross written premium 185,624 217,718 259,592 304,435 358,057
Net written premium 134,896 155,395 182,087 211,803 247,235
Net earned premium 130,321 148,228 170,574 197,958 230,540
Net claims 97,819 107,257 124,167 140,975 163,656
Net commission 6,339 4,722 7,283 7,413 7,417
Expense of Management 39,201 45,148 49,164 57,187 66,754
Underwriting profit/(Loss) (13,038) (8,898) (10,039) (7,617) (7,286)
Investment income 30,978 32,721 37,761 42,124 47,205
Operating profit 17,940 23,823 27,721 34,507 39,919

Shareholder's account
Operating profit 17,940 23,823 27,721 34,507 39,919
Investment income 7,061 7,757 8,374 9,395 10,577
Total income 25,001 31,579 36,095 43,902 50,496
Expenses 8,166 10,454 11,058 12,717 14,624
PBT 16,835 21,125 25,037 31,186 35,872
Tax 4,125 3,835 6,813 7,859 9,040
PAT 12,710 17,290 18,224 23,327 26,832
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research

Exhibit 2: Balance sheet

Rs mn FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Sources of funds
Share capital 4,909 4,911 4,911 4,911 4,911
Reserves and Surplus 86,188 99,016 113,342 130,775 151,714
Fair value change account 3,593 2,133 2,133 2,133 2,133
Borrowings 2,550 350 350 350 350
Claims Outstanding gross 249,752 269,166 309,541 355,972 409,367
Current liabilities 80,916 87,421 100,534 115,615 132,957
Provisions 80,575 87,865 101,044 116,201 133,631
Total Liabilities 508,483 550,862 631,855 725,956 835,063

Application of funds
Investments - Shareholders 89,179 98,583 110,317 123,940 139,699
Investments - Policyholders 298,684 333,221 384,393 443,780 512,942
Fixed assets 5,775 5,640 5,840 6,040 6,240
Deferred tax asset 3,456 2,653 2,653 2,653 2,653
Cash and bank balances 2,926 2,031 23,181 47,236 74,291
Advances and other assets 108,463 108,734 105,472 102,307 99,238
Total Assets 508,483 550,862 631,855 725,956 835,063
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 5
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

Exhibit 3: Ratio analysis

Particulars FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Key ratios
Claims ratio 75.1% 72.4% 72.8% 71.2% 71.0%
Opex ratio 29.1% 29.1% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
Commission ratio 4.7% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%
Combined ratio 108.8% 104.5% 103.8% 101.7% 101.0%
Underwriting P/L Ratio -10.0% -6.0% -5.9% -3.8% -3.2%
RoA 2.5% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%
RoE 14.0% 16.6% 15.4% 17.2% 17.1%
Dividend payout 34.8% 12.8% 29.1% 25.3% 22.0%
Investments leverage 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

Per share ratios (Rs)

EPS 25.9 35.2 37.1 47.5 54.6
BVPS 185.6 211.6 240.8 276.3 318.9
DPS 9.0 4.5 12.0 12.0 12.0

Valuation ratios
P/E (x) 65.1 47.8 45.4 35.5 30.8
P/B (x) 9.1 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.3

Growth (%)
Gross written premium 29.6% 17.3% 19.2% 17.3% 17.6%
Net earned premium 30.1% 13.7% 15.1% 16.1% 16.5%
Claims 42.4% 9.6% 15.8% 13.5% 16.1%
Commissions 5.5% -25.5% 54.2% 1.8% 0.1%
Net income -13.7% 36.0% 5.4% 28.0% 15.0%
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research

Exhibit 4: Change in annual estimates

Revised Estimate Earlier Estimate % Revision
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs mn)
FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Premium Earned 170,574 197,958 230,540 168,960 196,182 228,587 1.0 0.9 0.9
Operating Profit 27,721 34,507 39,919 27,733 34,458 39,819 (0.0) 0.1 0.3
Profit After Tax 18,224 23,327 26,832 18,233 23,289 26,755 (0.1) 0.2 0.3
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 6
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

Recommendation Tracker

ICICIGI Reco Nifty (RHS)

2,010 23,000
1,810
Add 22,000
1,610 Add Add
1,352 1,359 1,374
1,410 Add Add 21,000
1,131
1,210 1,065
20,000
1,010
19,000
810
610 18,000
410
17,000
210
10 16,000
Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 7
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance
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 ICICI Lombard General Insurance

DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST RECOMMENDATION PARAMETERS FOR FUNDAMENTAL

REPORTS
Name of the Research Analyst : Shivaji Thapliyal, Siddharth Rajpurohit
Analysts assign ratings to the stocks according to the expected
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13:14:20 +05'30'
Date: 2024.03.29
RAJPUROHIT 13:18:10 +05'30' disciplinary actions taken against YSL by SEBI/Stock Exchanges.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material. 9