2.3.

Trade in the UK during Q2 2016-2020 (transition period)

*Overall:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/284746/united-kingdom-uk-total-trade/ (có graph

nhưng ko tải đc)

- UK trade has been a much-discussed topic particularly in the aftermath of the Brexit

referendum of June 2016. Since the second quarter of 2016, the total trade deficit of the UK

has widened, reaching 24.7 billion British pounds by the end of the first quarter of 2019. As it

is, United Kingdom imports goods more than it exports them, with the EU collectively being

a sizable import market for the country.

- International UK trade after Brexit

When talking about UK international trade, Brexit is a subject too hefty to avoid. Among

possible scenarios that the Brexit conundrum induced, international trade without the

advantages of full membership in the single market is an unknown that complicates the

already nightmarish state of affairs. Currently, the UK government has been seeking to renew

a number of trade agreements that come automatically with EU membership, such as Free

Trade Agreements (FTA) and Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA). At the same time,

the possibility is still there that the UK might have to trade under World Trade Organisation

(WTO) terms, which means that tariffs on certain goods and services will apply.
 *Some details:

1. Main points

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/

june2020#toc

 The total trade surplus, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals,
widened by £8.6 billion to £8.6 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020, as imports fell
by £35.2 billion and exports fell by a lesser £26.7 billion; the largest underlying total
trade surplus on a three-month basis since records began in 1998.
 Falling imports and exports in Quarter 2 2020 were largely seen in trade in goods,
excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, where imports and exports fell
by £21.4 billion and £14.0 billion respectively, while for trade in services they fell by
£13.9 billion and £12.7 billion respectively.
 The largest falls in both imports and exports of goods in Quarter 2 2020 were seen in
machinery and transport equipment, and fuels, which can be linked to the sharp drop in
demand for road vehicles and oil because of coronavirus-related restrictions.
 Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade surplus, excluding unspecified goods
(which includes non-monetary gold), increased by £7.2 billion to £7.8 billion in
Quarter 2 2020, as imports fell by £31.1 billion and exports fell by a lesser £23.8
billion.
 The total trade balance, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals,
increased by £37.6 billion to a surplus of £3.7 billion in the 12 months to June 2020.

2. The total trade balance, excluding precious metals, increased in Quarter 2 2020

- The total trade surplus, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, widened by
£8.6 billion to £8.6 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020 (Figure 1). The increase of the
underlying total trade balance was because of imports falling by £35.2 billion, while exports
fell by a lesser £26.7 billion.

- The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £7.4 billion to £20.7
billion in Quarter 2 2020 (Figure 2). Goods imports fell by £21.4 billion to £87.0 billion,
while goods exports fell by £14.0 billion to £66.4 billion. Falling imports and exports were
largely seen in machinery and transport equipment, and fuels, with larger falls of each in
imports than exports (Figure 3).
 Exports of precious metals rose by £8.2 billion in Quarter 2 2020, while imports fell by

£3.2 billion. Including precious metals, the total trade balance increased by £20.0 billion to

£18.8 billion in Quarter 2 2020, driven by a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit.

3. The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed with EU and

non-EU countries in Quarter 2 2020

The trade in goods deficit, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, narrowed
by £5.4 billion to £14.2 billion with EU countries in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020. With non-
EU countries, it narrowed by a lesser £2.0 billion to £6.5 billion (Figure 4).