• are you sure?

the role of uncertainty

in career
Edwin Trevor-Roberts
Although uncertainty is a fundamental human experience, professionals in the career
field have largely overlooked the role that it plays in people’s careers. The changed nature
of careers has resulted in people experiencing increased uncertainty in their career that
is beyond the uncertainty experienced in their job. The author explores the role of
uncertainty in people’s experience of their careers and examines the implications for
career counseling theory and practice. A review of the career theory and career coun-
seling literature indicates that although contemporary approaches have been offered to
respond to the changed nature of career, none of the approaches have identified uncer-
tainty as a core part of individuals’ experience of their career. The broader literature on
uncertainty is then reviewed at the societal, organizational, and individual levels.
○ ○ ○ ○

The central thesis of this article is that uncertainty is a fundamental experience of their
career that affects people’s vocational behaviors, attitudes, and emotions. An understand-
ing of how uncertainty influences people’s experience of their career may lead to career
theories that are more in tune with the inherent instability of career and more targeted
toward effective counseling interventions that help people make the most of their work-
ing life. The motivation for proposing uncertainty as a central feature of an individual’s
career is that rapid changes in the labor market have caused increased uncertainty and
instability in people’s careers (Burke & Cooper, 2002). These changes are evident, for
example, in the changed nature of production (Langlois, 2003), the rise of knowledge
work (Pazy, 2003; Tarique & Lazarova, 2003), and increased alternative employment ar-
rangements (Kunda, Barley, & Evans, 2002; Theodore & Peck, 2002). It is within this
context that feelings of uncertainty have arisen beyond traditional conceptualizations of
job insecurity (Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984; Sverke & Hellgren, 2002).
Uncertainty does not exist simply within people’s experience of their career; rather, it
is a central experience of living. Researchers have focused their studies at the societal
(Hofstede, 1980, 2001; Sully de Luque & Javidan, 2004), organizational (Cyert & March,
1963; Teboul, 1994), and individual (Babrow, Kasch, & Ford, 1998; Bradac, 2001; Kramer,
1999) levels. Moreover, uncertainty is ubiquitous. In almost every situation, there is
some level of uncertainty: Will I arrive on time? Will I have a stressful day? At the indi-
vidual level, however, the greatest feelings of uncertainty are most often experienced
when making major decisions, such as selecting a life partner, buying a house, or choos-
ing a vocation (Sully de Luque & Javidan, 2004). As Sully deLuque and her colleagues
suggested, it is the desire to reduce uncertainty that motivates many human endeavors,
such as furthering scientific knowledge or exploring other planets. In their daily lives,
individuals establish routines and habits to increase the predictability of their lives
and to reduce the occurrence of uncertainty.
○ ○ ○ ○
Edwin Trevor-Roberts, Business School, University of Queensland, Australia. Correspondence
concerning this article should be addressed to Edwin Trevor-Roberts, University of Queensland
Business School, c\- PO Box 142, Toowong, QLD 4066, Australia (e-mail: e.trevor-
roberts@business.uq.edu.au).

© 2006 by the American Counseling Association. All rights reserved.

98 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43
 Uncertainty is not experienced when something is predictable (i.e., certain) or com-
pletely unpredictable. Marris (1996) used the example of people living in an earthquake-
prone area, wherein the sheer unpredictability of such an event prevents people from thinking
about when it may occur. Thus, they do not experience uncertainty. Uncertainty, there-
fore, exists between absolute certainty and absolute unpredictability. Similarly, a person’s
career is not perfectly certain, nor is it absolutely unpredictable. There are always alter-
native courses of action and factors to consider that may reduce the certainty of a career
decision. On the other hand, when pursuing a particular direction, individuals can take
purposeful action to increase the predictability of an outcome. An individual’s experi-
ence of his or her career, therefore, is in the realm of uncertainty—between absolute
certainty and absolute unpredictability.
This article begins with an examination of how careers have changed and the key
trends underpinning these changes. The key argument is that careers now operate in an
environment of instability and change, resulting in individuals experiencing greater
levels of uncertainty. This examination is followed by a review of how career theory and
research have responded to these changes. Theories and interventions that address
uncertainty in some way are highlighted to identify uncertainty as a key element in
people’s experience of their career. Next, the concept of uncertainty is reviewed and
shown to be a fundamental human experience at the societal, organizational, and indi-
vidual levels. The impact of uncertainty on organizational effectiveness, new areas of
research, and suggestions for possible research approaches are examined and presented.

THE CHANGED NATURE OF CAREER

Recent changes that have taken place within organizations and the labor market have
altered the nature of careers and brought to the fore people’s experience of career
uncertainty. Although there are many factors that have an impact on careers, my focus
is on three major areas: (a) the changed nature of production, (b) the increase in knowl-
edge work, and (c) the growth of alternative employment arrangements.
The changed nature of production has radically altered the environment in which
careers are constructed. The rapid increase in communication technologies in the 1990s
made globalization a reality; organizations have adapted by reducing costs, developing
alternative structures (Frenkel, Korczynski, Shire, & Tam, 1999; Hesselbein, Goldsmith,
& Beckhard, 1997) to compete in an increasingly competitive market (Burke & Cooper,
2002). The bond of trust that existed between employee and employer, namely, the “psy-
chological contract” (Hall, 2002; Rousseau, 1995; Rousseau & Tijoriwala, 1998) was
broken during this period. The old contract of “obedience for security” was replaced by
“initiative for opportunity” (Herriot & Pemberton, 1995). These changes point toward
an environment that is increasingly volatile and subject to change. Individuals can no
longer expect clearly identifiable career paths that are mapped out by their organiza-
tion; rather they need to take responsibility for their own career. Consequently, people
face increased uncertainties regarding their current employer (e.g., environmental
scanning to determine the viability of the organization, identifying and capitalizing
on career opportunities within the firm), their career (e.g., fostering a sense of identity,
determining the type of work they want to do), and enacting their career (e.g., integrat-
ing work and life, identifying where and with whom to work).

journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 99

 The second factor underlying the changed nature of careers is the increase in knowl-
edge work. Knowledge has become a key source of competitive advantage for organi-
zations in the current postindustrial information age (Eisenhardt & Santos, 2002; Grant,
1996). Similarly, individuals need to acquire knowledge and skills that can be adapted
and applied across different settings and jobs in order to be successful in their career
(Bird, 1994; Inkson & Arthur, 2001; Tarique & Lazarova, 2003). Such a focus on knowl-
edge produces an additional set of uncertainties for individuals. If, for example, learning
is so critical, a major uncertainty arises as to what to learn (Tarique & Lazarova, 2003).
This includes not only formal learning but also searching for and taking on projects or
jobs to increase a particular skill set or knowledge base.
The third factor influencing careers is the rise in alternative employment arrangements
(Gallagher, 2002; Kunda et al., 2002). Such arrangements, for which there are both
supporters and detractors, represent a significant shift in the way careers are actu-
alized. Some researchers see contingent labor (i.e., workers who are hired on a tempo-
rary basis; see Allan, 2002) as a threat to the stability of society and focus on the plight
and suffering of such workers (Cappelli, 1999; Sennett, 1998), whereas others see contin-
gent workers as eminently marketable because these individuals have a unique set of skills
and attain self-actualization through their work (Pink, 2001). Kunda, Barley, and Evans’s
(2002) study of information technology contractors illustrates how such arrangements in-
fluence people’s experience of their career. Contracting has been traditionally perceived to
be insecure in the short term, yet Kunda et al. found that contactors felt secure in the short
term because they could easily find another contract. However, the participants in the study
were uncertain about their long-term future.
In summary, the three factors previously discussed contribute to an environment that is
increasingly characterized by instability, uncertainty, and indeterminacy. Although these
three factors are not exhaustive, they are key contributors to the broad changes in careers; of
course, within particular sections of the labor market, there may be counter trends to those I
have discussed. The principle argument is that these changes challenge the assumptions on
which traditional career theories have been developed. As careers become increasingly self-
managed, a range of possible sources of uncertainty arise for individuals. These may include
the current industry or organization in which individuals work, the type of work they would
like to do, and actions they can take to remedy their situation. The specific source of uncer-
tainty is not of central importance. Rather, the central concern is the individual’s affective
and behavioral coping response to the uncertainty. It is individuals’ ability to deal with
uncertainty that characterizes career in a contemporary society and that affects their gen-
eral well-being, career success, and effectiveness within their organization.

UNCERTAINTY IN CAREER
Within the career field, there has been no research focusing specifically on uncer-
tainty. There have been, however, a number of empirical studies linking uncertainty
to other variables, such as stress (Ito & Brotheridge, 2001), role ambiguity (Rizzo &
House, 1970), job transfer (Kramer, 1993, 1994), negative health effects (Catalano,
Rook, & Dooley, 1986; Dekker & Schaufeli, 1995; Volinn, Lai, McKinney, & Loeser,
1988) and decision making (Gati, 1990; Gelatt, 1989). Research has also been
undertaken on uncertainty as experienced by adolescents and young adults. Meijers

100 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43

(2002), for example, summarized research findings on uncertainty among youth in
Europe and found that they were acutely aware of the uncertainty of their future
and that this knowledge created negative emotions for many of them. Young adults
with greater career certainty are more likely to engage in career planning activities
and to identify their work values (Orndorff & Herr, 1996; Schulenberg, Vondracek,
& Kim, 1993). Orndorff and Herr’s and Schulenberg et al.’s studies highlighted that
feelings of uncertainty can be seen early in people’s careers and that the presence
of certainty can contribute to more effective career behaviors.
Thus, while uncertainty has not been the central focus of any career theory, ca-
reer theorists and practitioners have responded to changes in the career climate by
offering alternative explanations of career. These approaches tend to implicitly include
or refer to uncertainty in some way and can be categorized into decision-making
theories, interpretive approaches, and career counseling approaches. Following is
a review of each of these approaches.

Decision Making in Career

People often experience uncertainty when they make career-related decisions. The
literature on career decision making has focused on reducing uncertainty during
this process (e.g., Gati, Krausz, & Osipow, 1996). Gati et al. (1996) proposed a tax-
onomy of career decision-making difficulties. Embedded in decision theory, this
taxonomy includes 10 categories that are divided into three groups: lack of readiness,
lack of information, and inconsistent information. The authors found empirical sup-
port for their model in an Israeli and an American sample. Similarly, Germeijs and De
Boeck (2003) suggested that there are three theoretical sources of indecision during
the decision-making process: (a) lack of information, (b) valuation problems (relating
to unclear goals and lack of clarity about a person’s values), and (c) uncertainty about
the outcomes. On the basis of questionnaire data from high school students who were
in the decision-making process for choosing further studies, Germeijs and De Boeck
found that the three theoretical elements could be differentiated as possible
sources of indecision.
Although these theories implicitly recognize that uncertainty is part of deci-
sion making, they suffer from several limitations. First, their focus is on the pro-
cess and outcome of making a decision rather than on the uncertainty itself. In
particular, the emphasis is on the specific factors that people take into account
when making a decision as well as the possible cause of indecision, such as a lack
of information. As a result, these theories miss the richness afforded by a focus on
how people experience uncertainty. Second, the decision-making literature and
empirical studies focus on a short-term time frame, such as the indecision of choosing
a particular job. Such a focus overlooks the longer term phenomena of individu-
als’ uncertainty when they do not know the future direction of their career. Fi-
nally, the broader context of a person’s life within which a career decision is made
tends to be overlooked in favor of the short-term focus on a specific decision. Career
decisions do not occur in isolation but rather are a part of the continuum of a
person’s life story as he or she attempts to integrate and make sense of the deci-
sion as part of the ongoing negotiation of identity.

journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 101

Interpretive Approaches
A number of alternative theories have been offered that conceptualize career holistically
and incorporate uncertainty in a broader sense rather than in relation to a particular career
decision. The philosophy underpinning these interpretive approaches moves career away
from the rigid, clean categorization of positivistic approaches that scientifically separate
the career from the individual. Instead, the symbiotic existence of a person and his or her
career is emphasized with the focus on people’s lives as lived, highlighting the
unpredictability and uniqueness of career. The emergence of interpretive approaches in
the careers field is partially due to the search by career theorists to bridge the gulf between
theory and everyday life and to bring theory closer to people’s lives as lived (Young &
Collin, 2004). Interpretive approaches range from constructivism, which emphasizes the
individual and his or her cognitive processes, to social constructionism, which empha-
sizes the historical and culturally situated nature of individual action. (For a detailed
discussion relating to the career field, see Young & Collin, 2004.) Thus, these interpretive
approaches have the capacity to bring to the foreground the uncertainty people experi-
ence in their career and highlight the influence of cultural norms and cognitive schemas
on that experience. This perspective is more in tune with counseling practice wherein
career issues are woven into the complex tapestry of life. Amundson (2004) viewed inter-
pretive approaches as one of the most significant current trends in the career field.
Protean career. Hall’s (1996, 2002) protean career theory offers two career
metacompetencies of identity creation and adaptability. Underpinning this theory is the
notion of psychological success, in which a career is seen as the pursuit of such success
(Gunz & Heslin, 2005; Mirvis & Hall, 1996). Success, however, creates additional uncer-
tainty for individuals. For example, what does “success” mean to an individual? How does
he or she integrate this into his or her life? How does the individual measure success?
Identity theory. Identity theory offers a possible solution to the above uncertainties. Iden-
tity theory, about which there has been a recent surge of interest in the career field, has been
offered as a way to address the holistic nature of career. A person’s identity is his or her “sense
of self,” or what the individual conveys to others about him- or herself (Ibarra, 2002). The
work that an individual undertakes has a major influence on identity formation (Bluestein,
Devenis, & Kidney, 1989). Moreover, a person’s identity is now seen as an emergent, contin-
gent process (Brocklehurst, 2003) rather than as a static connection to an organization or
job. Identity is created and shaped through action (Ibarra, 2002; Rose, 1996). Changing
careers, therefore, also involves changing one’s identity. Evidence of this is apparent during
periods of unemployment when a rapid “renegotiation” of identity occurs (Amundson, 1994).
Amundson argued that the closer a person’s identity is linked to his or her work, the greater
will be the individual’s difficulty in coping with the unemployment period. Amundson sug-
gested that it is more effective for an individual’s identity to be based on personal capacities
and attitudes rather than on a traditional working relationship.
The contribution of identity theory to uncertainty is that it highlights additional uncer-
tainties in a person’s career. These uncertainties relate not to a particular situation, as is
the case for decision-making theories, but rather to the person as a whole. Individuals
have many possible selves that stem from who they want or hope to be or who they fear
becoming (Ibarra, 2002). The challenge, and uncertainty, for individuals then is not one
of finding occupations or jobs but rather identifying which possible “self” to pursue and
then finding opportunities within which they can develop their identity.
102 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43
 Social constructionist approaches. A strength, and limitation, of identity theory and
other constructivist approaches that emphasize career as a subjective experience (Peavy,
1992) is that they center the individual in the career experience without fully taking
into account the social, historical, and cultural environment. A social constructionist
stance, however, is primarily interested in the social processes and action that sur-
round a person’s career experience (Young & Collin, 2004). A wide variety of theories
have been offered, including contextualist (Young, Valach, & Collin, 2002), action
(Young & Valach, 2000, 2004), narrative (Bujold, 2004; Cochran, 1997), and dis-
course analysis (Coupland, 2004). Although none of these approaches have focused on
uncertainty, they have the potential to contribute to the understanding of uncertainty
in people’s careers. For example, the narrative approach to career (e.g., Bujold, 2004;
Cochran, 1997) is a promising lens through which career uncertainty can be viewed.
Narratives explore how individuals weave career into their life story and create meaning
from their experiences. Such an approach may shed light on how they make sense of the
uncertainties and challenges they face in their career. Individuals’ narratives also
reflect cultural and societal norms (Bruner, 1986, 1987), thus allowing access to un-
certainties that are imposed from cultural expectations.

Career Counseling for Uncertainty

Although this fact has been alluded to in previous sections of this article, uncer-
tainty has not been the central focus of any career theories. Professionals in the
counseling field, however, have realized that individuals experience uncertainty
in their career and have offered several approaches to assist clients in dealing with
the uncertainty, instability, and inherent unpredictability of careers. Amundson
(2004) labeled such approaches as “paradoxical thinking.” Most of these approaches
had their origins in the career counseling field, and I will review three of these
approaches in this article: positive uncertainty (Gelatt, 1989), planned happen-
stance (Krumboltz & Levin, 2004; Mitchell, Levin, & Krumboltz, 1999), and com-
plexity theory (Drodge, 2002).
Positive uncertainty. The sociologist Gelatt (1989) offered a decision-making and coun-
seling framework, called “positive uncertainty” to help “clients deal with change and ambi-
guity, accept uncertainty and inconsistency and utilize the non-rational and intuitive side
of thinking and choosing” (p. 252). The aim of this approach is to engender an acceptance
of chaos and a positive attitude about uncertainty. This can be achieved through four prin-
ciples: (a) be focused and flexible in what you want, (b) be aware and wary about what you
know, (c) be “objective” and optimistic in what you believe, and (d) be practical and magical
in what you do. When making decisions, Gelatt proposed that individuals should view infor-
mation with imagination while simultaneously being objective and critical regarding the
veracity of facts. The author argued that an increase in information can result in a corre-
sponding increase in uncertainty (consistent with uncertainty management theory; see Babrow
et al., 1998). The key is the individual’s attitude toward the facts rather than the facts them-
selves. Gelatt’s framework is useful because it recognizes the existence of uncertainty in
making career decisions and acknowledges the role counselors can play in helping clients
to be more positive about the constructive value of uncertainty.
Planned happenstance. The second counseling approach that helps individuals
deal with uncertainty is that of “planned happenstance,” which was proposed by
journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 103
Krumboltz and his colleagues (Krumboltz & Levin, 2004; Mitchell et al., 1999). The
aim of planned happenstance is to transform unplanned events into learning experi-
ences and to capitalize on chance events. This approach encourages clients to move
from indecision to open-mindedness. Krumboltz and his colleagues suggested that an
individual needs to have five skills to do this: curiosity, persistence, flexibility, opti-
mism, and risk taking. The happenstance approach encourages individuals to actively
seek situations in which chance events may occur. It then encourages them to be open
to opportunities in such settings and to capitalize on any events that occur.
Complexity theory. Complexity and chaos theories have recently been used as the
foundation for theoretical models to explain the instability and seemingly random-
ness of careers in modern society (e.g., Bird, Gunz, & Arthur, 2002; Gunz, Lichenstein,
& Long, 2002; Pryor & Bright, 2003). These theories attempt to model career as a sys-
tem. Gunz and his colleagues (2002), for example, used “self-organized criticality”
and “interconnected networks” as a basis for viewing career systems as self-organiz-
ing systems. The aim of these alternative conceptualizations of career is to emphasize
the discontinuous and unpredictable nature of career through the use of concepts
from the physical sciences. A limitation of these theories is that uncertainty is men-
tioned only as a characteristic of the complex system; additionally, they stop short of
describing how uncertainty affects and is experienced by individuals.
Drodge (2002) addressed some of these limitations by offering complexity theory
as a metaphor for career. The use of a metaphor allows individuals to understand
phenomena, in this case their career, by applying their own meaning to the meta-
phor. Drodge’s metaphor portrays the world as being in a constant state of flux, and
he argued that individuals must focus on their resources (e.g., skills, networks) to
enable them to cope with uncertainty. The theory is focused on uncertainty in the
environment in which a career is enacted rather than uncertainty that is projected
onto a particular event or situation by the individual. Drodge’s contribution helps
individuals realize that uncertainty in the labor market is the status quo.
These three approaches are based on the assumption that uncertainty is part of a person’s
experience of career, yet none of them focus systematically on the uncertainty, and the
individual’s experience of this uncertainty is ignored. Moreover, these approaches are
not empirically grounded, and their practical appeal could be enhanced by the support
of empirical research. (A rare exception is the work of El-Sawad & Cohen, 2005.) More-
over a greater understanding of an individual’s experience of uncertainty may enhance
the effectiveness of career counseling interventions such as the aforementioned ones.

Career and Uncertainty: Where to From Here?

A common theme throughout these approaches to career is a rejection of the as-
sumption of environmental stability and a focus on the continuously changing na-
ture of a person’s career. The search for psychological success and the development
of a sense of identity become key career activities. Niles (2003) called for career
counseling to move to “life structure counseling” that is “holistic, comprehensive,
and sensitive to the fact that each person has his or her own constellation of life
roles that are salient and that each person seeks to express specific values in the
life roles that he or she plays” (p. 75). The concepts of “job” and “job insecurity”

104 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43

take on less significance in this environment of life structure and roles. This shift, how-
ever, has resulted in increased uncertainties in people’s career as they attempt to build
a fulfilling career in an unpredictable environment. Despite the centrality of these
uncertainties to a person’s career, they have not been the focus of any theory or empirical
research. This echoes Richardson’s (1993) argument that the career counseling field is
in its third wave since the beginning of the 19th century; its central aim now is about
“the study of work in people’s lives in which work is considered to be a central human
activity that is not tied to or solely located in the occupational structure” (p. 427).
Some theorists and practitioners have responded to these changes by offering alter-
native conceptualizations of career that reject the assumption of stability. As discussed
earlier in this article, such offerings are in the minority and suffer from several limita-
tions. For example, although some theorists acknowledge the existence of uncertainty,
none of them focus on the central role it plays in people’s career. For theorists who do
recognize uncertainty (e.g., Ito & Brotheridge, 2001), they include it as an ancillary
variable or cognitive state rather as the central focus of the theory. Similarly, interpretive
approaches that focus on the holistic nature of career as embedded within a person’s broader
life do not emphasize the role of uncertainty in the actual living of a person’s career.
These interpretive approaches do, however, highlight additional uncertainties, such
as how career can be integrated into a person’s life and the uncertainties surrounding
the individual’s development of their sense of identity.
Building on the foundation laid by the interpretive approaches reviewed previ-
ously, a promising theoretical direction is people’s subjective experience of uncer-
tainty in their career. As mentioned earlier, uncertainty arises from the meaning an
individual ascribes to a particular event (Marris, 1996). According to Drodge (2002),
when individuals are certain about something, they are full of meaning and pur-
pose. Meaning, however, is not a solid state but rather is in a constant state of flux
as individuals assimilate experiences, assign meanings to events, and act. Simi-
larly, meaning and action are two key components of a career (see, for example, Young
& Valach, 2004). The actions that a person undertakes in his or her career provides
a sense of meaning and purpose in that individual’s life. Uncertainty is, therefore,
endemic to career, as evidenced by the individual’s search for meaning and the
existence of a plethora of possibilities for action.

UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty is a fundamental human experience that has received attention from researchers
from a variety of fields, including sociology, psychology, finance, organizational behavior,
and strategy. The analysis of uncertainty has been focused on at the societal, organiza-
tional, and individual levels. The aim of this section is to review some of this research to
demonstrate the ubiquitousness of uncertainty, its effect on individuals and organiza-
tions, and its contribution to the understanding of uncertainty in career.

Uncertainty in Society
Uncertainty avoidance is one of eight dimensions of culture proposed by the Glo-
bal Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE) program (House
et al., 1999, 2004; House, Javidan, & Dorfman, 2001). Uncertainty avoidance is

journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 105

defined as “the extent to which members of collectives seek orderliness, consistency,
structure, formalized procedures, and laws to cover situations in their daily lives” (Sully
de Luque & Javidan, 2004, p. 603). Sully de Luque and Javidan found that societal
uncertainty avoidance was correlated with a variety of other indicators, including
economic variables, human condition, political ideology, scientific progress, religious
orientation, geographic region, and climate. Among their findings are the following:

• The greater the degree to which a society avoids uncertainty, the higher its
economic prosperity (measured in terms of consumption and growth).
• The more formalized and structured economies are, the more competitive they
are in the global environment.
• Societies that are high on uncertainty avoidance tend to enjoy a healthier state
of mind (i.e., positive feelings about themselves, their health, their lives, and
their countries).
• Societies with greater uncertainty-avoiding mechanisms tend to enjoy higher
qualities of life and human development.

The GLOBE project furthers the seminal work on culture undertaken by Hofstede
(1980, 2001) who proposed that uncertainty avoidance is a cultural construct and high-
lighted its influence on behavior and attitudes. According to Hofstede, societies can be
differentiated by the way they respond to, and cope with, uncertainty. Hofstede pro-
posed three mechanisms that societies use to cope with uncertainty: technology, law,
and religion. Technology helps societies cope with the uncertainty of nature, laws pro-
tect societies from the uncertainty of human behavior, and religion helps societies cope
with the uncertainties that they cannot protect themselves from. Although Hofstede’s
work has been subjected to a barrage of criticism, he was, nonetheless, the first researcher
to popularize the concept of uncertainty avoidance as a construct to differentiate be-
tween societies and gain insight into the collective behavior of cultures. Uncertainty
can also be used to differentiate different segments within a society. Marris (1996) ar-
gued that the process to reduce uncertainty in society leads to social inequality and
marginalization of the weakest members of a society. He viewed economic and social
inequalities as a cause of uncertainties and, reciprocally, the striving to reduce uncer-
tainties as contributing to inequalities.
The work of the GLOBE project (House et al., 2004) and Hofstede (1980, 2001)
indicate the importance of uncertainty avoidance for the prosperity of a culture
and the health of its members. It also demonstrates how cultures can be differ-
entiated on the basis of their avoidance of uncertainty. This research as well as
that of other authors (e.g., Marris, 1996) illustrates how uncertainty is cultur-
ally manifested and that a desire to reduce uncertainty is not only culturally
bound but also psychologically bound.
Implications for Careers
Applying the above research to careers highlights the culturally embedded nature
of career uncertainty. Culture influences the cognitive schemas that dominate in a
particular society (Bruner, 1986), therefore, people’s experience and management
of uncertainty is influenced by the culture in which they live. Any theories or fu-

106 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43

ture empirical research on uncertainty in careers needs to be cognizant of the role
of cultural norms and societal influences.
The concept of uncertainty avoidance raises interesting possibilities for career
research. If uncertainty avoidance is such a fundamental concept that it can be
used to differentiate between cultures, it is possible that a similar phenomena
exists at the level of career. Do individuals avoid uncertainty in their career? If
so, what mechanisms do they put in place to achieve this? What is the impact of
avoidance behaviors on a person’s career?

Uncertainty in Organizations

Uncertainty is a recurrent theme in the organizational theory and organizational behav-

ior literature. As early as 1937, Coase wrote, “it seems improbable that a firm would
emerge without the existence of uncertainty” (p. 392). In today’s society, uncertainty
has become a common word in organizational vernacular. Hammer (1997), for example,
argued that organizations are characterized by responsibility, autonomy, risk, and un-
certainty. It was Cyert and March (1963), however, who brought uncertainty into the
management field when they proposed uncertainty, or more accurately “uncertainty
avoidance,” as a key element in understanding the decision-making behavior of a firm.
According to the latter authors, organizations use two main strategies to avoid uncer-
tainty. First, organizations emphasize “short-run reaction to short-run feedback rather
than anticipation of long-run uncertain events” (p. 119). By focusing on the immediate
problems, the organization endeavors to avoid the uncertainty of predicting the future.
Second, through a “negotiated environment,” an organization attempts to eliminate
uncertainty in the environment in which it operates. For example, the concept of “in-
dustry best practice” reduces the uncertainty of operating in an environment by sharing
information and encouraging similar behaviors (e.g., similar remuneration structures).
Uncertainty also influences the structure of an organization through its actions
aimed to buffer the uncertainty of market changes. The importance of this is de-
scribed by Langlois (2003), who stated, “understanding the ways in which organi-
zations buffer uncertainty is thus crucial to understanding organizational structure”
(p. 354). An example of such a buffer is employees. From this perspective, an indi-
vidual is seen as a decision-making object able to absorb diverse information and
distill it into a sequence of easily comprehensible instructions (Langlois, 2003). A
key role of the CEO, for example, is to understand the various factors influencing
the organization and to produce a strategy. A strategy is an unambiguous message
that guides the actions of individual members of an organization. The strategic place-
ment of people to buffer uncertainty alters the structure of the organization. Simi-
larly, succession planning (i.e., the identification and development of individuals
to fill critical organizational roles in the future) is a common strategy used to reduce
the uncertainty of future human resource needs within an organization.
The focus of behavioral theory is on an organization’s efforts to minimize uncer-
tainty, whereas the focus in the strategy literature is on how an organization can
cope with the existence of uncertainty. Game theory (Oster, 1994), for example,
provides a framework for organizations to understand the uncertainty caused by ri-
valry among firms in the same industry. According to this theory, the reaction of

journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 107

rival firms to an organization’s strategic moves is modeled using a series of games, the
most well-known being the “prisoners’ dilemma.” The strength of game theory approaches
to strategy is that it allows the complexity of firm behavior to be modeled into some form
of certainty. Similarly, uncertainty-based theories of strategy attempt to model the com-
plexity and instability of strategy using mathematics (Lynch, 1997). Chaos theory is
used to demonstrate how minor fluctuations can have major ramifications in the future
(Anderla, Dunning, & Forge, 1997; Thietart & Forgues, 1995). This alternative approach
to organizational strategy challenges the assumption that strategy can be planned; rather,
it advocates a shorter term focus with the emphasis on adaptation to changes in the
environment. Uncertainty has also been proposed as a management tool. The deliberate
provision of ambiguous messages in an organization is one such tool for achieving a
desired outcome from a communication exercise (Eisenberg, 1984).

Implications for the Career Field

The perspective and use of uncertainty according to organization theory may be of ben-
efit to the career field. It could be argued that individuals, like organizations, avoid
uncertainty in their career through the same two mechanisms proposed by Cyert and
March (1963). First, individuals have short-term reactions to short-term feedback rather
than considering the more uncertain long-run events. It is quite common for people’s
careers to be spontaneous reactions to opportunities that come their way rather than
careful deliberation regarding the future. Consciously moving toward some optimal fu-
ture career state often results in increased short-term uncertainty. For example, in order
to build an individual’s experience and contacts for a future career, it may be necessary
for the person to leave a permanent job to gain experience in a different industry or field
through part-time or contract work. This is an uncomfortable option for most people and
the least likely to be taken, as Cyert and March pointed out. Career theories, therefore,
need to take into account the interplay between short-term reactions and long-term op-
timal outcomes. Career practitioners need to use techniques that encourage clients to
maintain the fine balance between the short and long term and not to simply react to
immediate events, such as when an unexpected opportunity arises or when a person’s
job is made redundant through downsizing or through some other corporate strategy.
The second strategy of the negotiated environment suggested by Cyert and March (1963)
may also be applicable to careers. Trade unions are an obvious example. Unions exist to nego-
tiate more certain career outcomes for their members. An individual who relies on a union or
other external mechanism for career certainty raises further questions. What happens when
that mechanism disappears or the individual moves beyond the negotiated environment? Are
other uncertainty avoidance behaviors learned? What impact does this have on their career?
The concept of organizations putting in place buffers to minimize uncertainty (Langlois,
2003; Thompson, 1967) raises interesting questions regarding careers. What buffers do people
put in place to cope with the uncertainty of their career? Do these buffers remain stable over
time? Do some people rely more heavily on some buffers than others?

Individuals, Organizations, and Uncertainty

Researchers have also investigated the effect on organizations of uncertainty expe-

rienced by employees during key points in their career, such as joining an organiza-

108 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43

tion or moving to a new job. In their study of newly formed organizations, Sias and
Wyers (2001) found that the uncertainty experienced by employees of new ventures
did not reduce over time. In particular, the authors identified a different type of un-
certainty experienced by employees of such firms (i.e., new ventures), which they called
viability uncertainty, or uncertainty as to whether the venture will survive.
Kramer’s (1994) study of job transitions focused on new employees and transferees
from other parts of an organization. These employees faced increased levels of uncer-
tainty as they built new relationships, mastered new tasks, and established an identity.
The findings, consistent with uncertainty reduction theory (Berger & Calabrese, 1975),
indicated that requesting more information led to reduced stress and role ambiguity;
more task knowledge; and, overall, a better adjustment to the new environment. Accord-
ing to Kramer (1993), individuals move through three phases when transferring to a new
job: loosening, transition, and tightening. It is during the tightening phase that people
experience the greatest uncertainty because they have not yet developed scripts and
schemas through which to process information. In the tightening phase, effective ad-
justment would result in reduced stress and increased job satisfaction.
Sias, Kramer, and Jenkins (1997) studied difference in the communication be-
haviors of temporary workers and permanent new hires. They found that although
both types of worker experienced similar levels of uncertainty regarding their new
job, temporary workers engaged in fewer communication activities to reduce this
uncertainty. These different sets of behaviors may have negative consequences for
organizational innovation and knowledge creation, especially as workforces move
increasingly toward alternative employment arrangements.
Ito and Brotheridge’s (2001) investigation of workplace stress focused on the role
of uncertainty, both in general and within an organization, in people’s experiences
of stress. The authors provided two examples of when a person may experience un-
certainty: when going through a career transition or when experiencing job inse-
curity. Ito and Brotheridge’s core premise was that individuals’ perceived control
of their situation is an important mechanism for coping with stress. A similar find-
ing was reported by Hui and Lee (2000), who found that a strong sense of self
assisted employees in coping with high levels of change and uncertainty in orga-
nizations. More specifically, the latter authors found that organization-based self-
esteem exerted a moderating influence on individuals’ perceptions of organizational
uncertainty and job insecurity.
Job insecurity. A specific type of uncertainty that people experience in their ca-
reer is the uncertainty surrounding the future stability of their job and how they
will react to possible involuntary changes in their employment situation. Job inse-
curity has been defined as “employees’ negative reactions to the changes concern-
ing their jobs” (Sverke & Hellgren, 2002, p. 26), “powerlessness to maintain a desired
continuity in a threatened job situation” (Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984, p. 438),
or the discrepancy between the security employees would like their jobs to provide
and the level they perceive to exist (Hartley, Jacobson, Klandermans, & van Vuuren,
1991). At the core of the job insecurity literature is the notion that there are two
components to job insecurity: an objective threat and the subjective reaction to
that threat (Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984). The objective threat includes factors
that are typically outside the control of the individual. These include characteris-

journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 109

tics of the labor market, organizational change, the employment contract, and an uncer-
tain future for the organization (Sverke & Hellgren, 2002). This objective threat is a
threat to the job as a whole as well as to features of the job. Ashford, Lee, and Bobko’s
(1989) multidimensional measure of job insecurity includes a measure of total job loss
as well as job features. The relative contribution to overall feelings of job insecurity
due to threats of job loss and threats to job features have yet to be established because
studies have yielded conflicting results. Roskies and Louis-Guerin (1990), for example,
found that deterioration of working conditions had the strongest impact; Reisel and
Banai (2002), on the other hand, found that the overall job threat dimension better
explained outcome attitudes and behaviors than did the job features dimension.
The other proposed component of job insecurity is the subjective experience of the
perceived objective threat (Dekker & Schaufeli, 1995; Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984;
Sverke & Hellgren, 2002). The subjective component of job insecurity is the individual’s
perception and interpretation of the events in his or her work environment. As Sverke
and Hellgren (2002) concluded, even if two individuals are exposed to the same objec-
tive threat, they may perceive this threat in different ways and have different behavioral
and affective reactions. One of the key elements of this subjective threat is the per-
ceived powerlessness (Ashfordet al., 1989; Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984) or control
(Sverke & Hellgren, 2002) that the individual feels. A number of other factors have
been proposed to moderate individuals’ reactions to perceived job insecurity. Accord-
ing to Sverke and Hellgren, these factors include individual differences (e.g., emo-
tional intelligence [Jordan, Ashkanasy, & Hartel, 2002]; personality [Kinnunen, Mauno,
Natti, & Happonen, 1999; Näswall & De Witte, 2003; Roskies, Louis-Guerin, & Fournier,
1993]), fair treatment (Sverke & Hellgren, 2002), and social support (Dekker & Schaufeli,
1995; Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984; Lim, 1996).
There are two key issues in the job insecurity literature that need to be highlighted.
The first is the overt reliance of researchers on a positivistic epistemology. Based in the
“scientific” paradigm (Johnson & Duberley, 2000), positivistic epistemology explains
job insecurity as being separate from the individual and as a variable that can be objec-
tively measured and quantified. The dominance of quantitative methodology in this
area is evidence of this. Furthermore, the objective/subjective dichotomy proposed by
Greenhalgh and Rosenblatt (1984) has been the foundation of the theoretical develop-
ment of job insecurity. This separation has missed the richness afforded by interpretive
approaches that see job insecurity as inseparable from the individual allowing opportu-
nities to explore local meanings of job insecurity and the dynamic process of meaning
making (Bartunek & Seo, 2002). The second issue of job insecurity is that it is a short-
term phenomenon that centers on one temporal aspect of people’s careers, that is, the
immediate experience in their current job. It fails to account for the uncertainty an in-
dividual experiences in addition to the uncertainty experienced in his or her job.

Implications for Careers

The research I have discussed demonstrates that uncertainty is a fundamental part
of people’s employment experience. Employees face a range of uncertainties during
their involvement with their organization; the successful management of these un-
certainties has implications for organizational outcomes, such as stress, productiv-

110 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43

ity, job satisfaction, and retention. Existing research on uncertainties experienced
by employees has been focused on specific situations such as entry into the organi-
zation or transfer to a new role.
The current body of research raises further questions and possible avenues for
future research. For example, the focus of existing research has been on the context
that generates uncertainty rather than on people’s experience of uncertainty itself.
How do people’s experience and management of uncertainty affect their behavioral
and affective responses? Such a focus may explain how two people experiencing
the same uncertainty may have different responses. Kramer’s (1993) findings on
uncertainty when individuals start a new role raise intriguing possibilities. Do in-
dividuals experience similar phases and uncertainty when entering other new areas
in their career, such as a new industry or an entirely new type of work? Also, what is
the impact on organizations of employees who are uncertain about the direction of
their career? Does this have an impact on their commitment to the organization,
their productivity, or their motivation? As Ito and Brotheridge’s (2001) study would
suggest, does experiencing uncertainty regarding the direction of a person’s career
contribute to increased stress in that person?

CONCLUSION
Uncertainty is a central feature of career; rather than leaving it at the periphery of theoriz-
ing, empirical research, and counseling, I have focused on it in this article as an important
aspect of a person’s experience of career. Considering the negative effects of experiencing
uncertainty in general, such as negative health effects (Dekker & Schaufeli, 1995) and
increased stress (Ito & Brotheridge, 2001), career uncertainty may also have significant
physical and psychological consequences. It is likely that individuals will experience
more uncertainty as careers continue to change. Three of these key changes, namely, the
changed nature of production, the increase in knowledge work, and the increase in alter-
native employment arrangements, have already had a dramatic effect on careers.
The topic of uncertainty in careers has received little theoretical or empirical atten-
tion. Uncertainty is either mentioned casually or incidentally included in research.
The career decision-making literature, for example, has the aim of assisting people through
the uncertain period of making a decision (e.g., Flores et al., 2003; Gati et al., 1996;
Tinsley, 1992). The focus in that literature, however, is on the short-term process of making
a decision and overlooks the longer term uncertainties involved in people’s careers. Al-
ternative conceptualizations of career, labeled interpretive approaches, highlight the
unpredictability and uniqueness of career. These approaches address the short-term
focus of the career decision-making literature. Protean career theory (Hall, 2002; Hall &
Associates, 1996) and identity theory (Ibarra, 2003) were discussed, each of which iden-
tified additional uncertainties that people experience in their career. These approaches,
which are anchored in a constructivist epistemology, lack the broader perspective of-
fered by theories from the social constructionist movement such as Young and Valach’s
(2000, 2004) action theory of career and Bujold’s (2004) narrative approach.
This review resulted in two key messages: First, uncertainty is a central experience of
people’s career, and second, the career literature has addressed the issue of uncertainty
superficially. A focus on career uncertainty may allow a greater understanding of how people

journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43 111

experience their career in an unstable environment. Such a focus would also respond to Bailyn’s
(1989) call for research that addresses the discontinuity in career. A deeper understanding of
people’s experience of career may help individuals cope with and manage the many uncertain-
ties they face. This may enable them to be more effective in their career by applying the skills
necessary to lead a successful and rewarding career. Furthermore, helping people manage
their career uncertainty may well have a positive organizational impact because employees
may have increased productivity, increased motivation, and a decreased intention to leave.
The analysis of uncertainty from the point of view of a variety of disciplines at the
societal and organizational levels demonstrated that uncertainty is a fundamental
human experience. The concept of uncertainty avoidance from the culture litera-
ture has interesting applications to careers. If societies can be distinguished on the
basis of their avoidance of uncertainty, then identifying how people avoid uncer-
tainty in their career may hold useful theoretical and practical implications. For
example, an understanding of how people buffer their uncertainty may result in
counseling interventions to assist them with their career issues.
A central finding from the career and uncertainty literature is that it is the search for
meaning and purpose within a person’s career that creates uncertainty. Marris (1996) ar-
gued that uncertainty arises when individuals are either confronted with a number of
possibilities for action or from the meaning that they ascribe to a particular event. Having
a number of possible routes for action generates feelings of uncertainty because a deci-
sion needs to be made regarding which one to pursue. Uncertainty also arises from the
“structure of meaning that make our world orderly and predictable” (Marris, 1996, p. 18).
It is how individuals structure meaning, argued Marris, that organizes their management of
uncertainty. According to Marris, uncertainty is a search for meaning that is embedded
within a cognitive process that is culturally bound. Arguably the primary function of a
career counselor is to help clients uncover a sense of meaning in their career and, in doing
so, generate a sense of certainty and clarity on which they can build their career.
This review of the literature indicates that a focus on uncertainty opens up several new
avenues for research. First, research could investigate the process of experiencing uncer-
tainty, such as how people cope with and manage uncertainty. There are likely many factors
that contribute to why people respond differently to uncertainty. These could be individual,
organizational, or cultural dimensions. Such research may result in career counseling inter-
ventions that are tailored to the unique characteristics of an individual. Second, such re-
search may enhance and provide empirical support for various counseling approaches, such
as those offered by Gelatt (1989) and Krumboltz and his colleagues (Krumboltz, & Levin,
2004; Mitchell, Levin, & Krumboltz, 1999), that strive to assist people in dealing with the
inherent uncertainty and unpredictability of careers. Third, another area of research could
focus on the organizational impact of employees who are uncertain in their career. Such
employees may have increased intent to leave, decreased productivity, and decreased orga-
nizational citizenship behaviors. Finally, another potential research stream could aim to de-
velop a taxonomy of factors that cause uncertainty in a person’s career.
In conclusion, uncertainty is a fundamental human experience. Recent changes in the
nature of careers have contributed to an increase in the uncertainties experienced by people
in their career. It is therefore timely for an approach to careers that centers uncertainty as
a core experience rather than seeing it as the outcome of some other process. An under-

112 journal of employment counseling • September 2006 • Volume 43

standing of uncertainty in career may result in theory and practical interventions that will
result in people having more rewarding and successful careers by helping them to cope
with and manage their uncertainty.
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