Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ajanta Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Estimate change CMP: INR2,234 TP: INR2,565 (+15%) Buy
TP change
Higher opex leads to EBITDA/PAT miss
Rating change
Aims to consistently outperform the industry in branded generics
Ajanta Pharma (AJP) delivered in-line sales in 4QFY24. However, EBITDA/PAT
Bloomberg AJP IN
came in lower than our expectations, due to higher opex and higher tax
Equity Shares (m) 127 outgo. AJP continued to outperform the industry in domestic formulation
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 281.3 / 3.4 (DF) and Asia market. The performance is expected to improve in the Africa
52-Week Range (INR) 2355 / 1230 branded generics market going forward.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -2/4/48 We cut our estimates by 6%/7% for FY25/FY26, factoring in a) moderation in
12M Avg Val (INR M) 313 US growth prospects, b) higher logistics costs due to ongoing geopolitical
tension, and c) a higher tax rate. We value AJP at 27x 12M forward earnings
Financials & Valuations (INR b) to arrive at a TP of INR2,565.
Y/E MARCH FY24 FY25E FY26E We expect a 17% earnings CAGR over FY24-26, backed by a 12%/15% sales
Sales 42.1 47.1 53.4
CAGR in DF/Asia segment and a 150bp margin expansion. With new
EBITDA 11.7 13.7 15.6
Adj. PAT 7.9 9.4 10.8 launches, MR addition and increased market share in existing products, AJP
EBIT Margin (%) 24.6 26.2 26.7 remains in good stead to outperform in the branded generics market (70%
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 62.3 74.4 85.4 of FY24 sales). AJP continues to build the ANDA pipeline for the US market
EPS Gr. (%) 26.6 19.5 14.8
and implement efforts toward consistent compliance. Maintain BUY.
BV/Sh. (INR) 282.0 337.4 401.0
Ratios
Net D:E -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 Product mix/operating leverage drive margins YoY
RoE (%) 22.7 24.0 23.1 4QFY24 revenue grew 20% to INR10.5b (our est: INR10.6b), led by growth
RoCE (%) 22.8 24.1 23.2
across all key business.
Payout (%) 24.7 25.5 25.5
Valuations US generics sales grew 32% YoY to INR2.6b (25% of sales). Asia branded
P/E (x) 35.9 30.0 26.2 generics sales rose 18% YoY to INR2.8b (27% of sales). Africa branded
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.0 20.2 17.3 generics and institutional sales increased 17% YoY to INR1.7b (17% of sales).
Div. Yield (%) 0.7 0.8 1.0
DF sales grew 14% YoY to INR3.3b (31% of sales).
FCF Yield (%) 2.3 2.4 2.7
EV/Sales (x) 6.7 5.9 5.1 Gross margin expanded 220bp YoY to 74.9% due to low raw material costs.
EBITDA margin expanded at a higher rate of ~700bp YoY to 26.4% (our est.
Shareholding pattern (%) 28.6%) due to lower employee costs and other expenses (down
As On Dec-23 Sep-23 Dec-22 320bp/160bp YoY as % of sales).
Promoter 66.2 66.2 66.1 Consequently, EBITDA grew 63% YoY to INR2.8b (our est. INR3b).
DII 16.7 15.6 15.8 Adjusting for the forex impact of INR197m, adj. PAT grew 57% YoY to
FII 9.1 10.0 10.1
INR1.9b (our est. INR2.2b).
Others 8.0 7.8 8.0
FY24 revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 13%/39%/27% YoY to INR42.1b/INR11.7b/
FII Includes depository receipts
INR7.9b.
For FY24, CFO was INR7.8b with EBITDA-to-CFO conversion of 67%.
2 May 2024 2
Ajanta Pharma
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1: DF sales up ~14% YoY in 4QFY24 Exhibit 2: R&D spending at ~5% of sales for 4QFY24
Domestic Sales (INR b) YoY (%) R&D expense (INRm) as a % of sales
26.6 7.2
21.8 6.8 6.3 6.3
17.1 5.7 5.4
14.8 14.3 13.1 13.6 4.9 4.7 4.7
12.4
4.8
2.5 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.1 3.3 590 540 590 610 631 550 500 520 500
3QFY23
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
4QFY23E
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
4QFY24
1.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.8
2QFY23
4QFY22
1QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY24
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 5: Gross margins expanded 220bp YoY in 4QFY24 Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expanded ~700bp YoY in 4QFY24
1QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
2 May 2024 3
Ajanta Pharma
2 May 2024 4
Ajanta Pharma
10.0 9.5
0.0
Jul-15
Jul-20
Apr-14
Apr-19
Apr-24
Jan-18
Jan-23
Oct-16
Oct-21
Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg
Jun-20
Mar-14
Sep-16
Dec-17
Mar-19
Sep-21
Dec-22
Mar-24
Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg
2 May 2024 5
Ajanta Pharma
Story in charts
Exhibit 9: Total sales to post 13% CAGR over FY24-26 Exhibit 10: DF sales to report 14% CAGR over FY24-26
Revenues (INR b) YoY Growth (%) Domestic Formulations (INR b) YoY Growth (%)
20.4 20.0
25.9
15.6 13.4 14.8
11.7 12.0 12.5 11.9 12.7
11.8 11.4
9.7
-3.5 5.3
20.6 25.9 28.9 33.4 37.4 42.1 47.1 53.4 6.9 7.7 8.1 9.8 11.7 13.1 14.7 16.9
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY19
FY26E
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 11: EM sales to clock 13% CAGR over FY24-26 Exhibit 12: US sales to record 11% CAGR over FY24-26
Emerging Markets (INR b) YoY Growth (%) US Sales (INR b) YoY Growth (%)
22.7 82.3
16.0 12.8 12.8
9.4 6.2 10.9
46.6
-16.2 23.4 19.0 16.4 13.2
9.3 9.4
10.3 12.7 13.8 16.1 17.1 18.9 21.3 24.1 2.8 5.2 6.4 7.0 8.3 9.6 10.5 11.9
FY19
FY26E
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 13: Expects 150bp margin expansion over FY24-26 Exhibit 14: Expects 17% earnings CAGR over FY24-26
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA Margin (%)
EPS
34.6
27.9 28.2 27.8 29.1 29.3
27.0
22.6
5.7 7.0 10.0 9.4 8.5 11.7 13.7 15.6 31.1 35.7 51.7 54.7 49.2 62.3 74.4 85.4
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
2 May 2024 6
Ajanta Pharma
2 May 2024 7
Ajanta Pharma
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
2 May 2024 8
Ajanta Pharma
2 May 2024 9
Ajanta Pharma
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts
which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any
way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures
and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources
believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All
such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or
subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all c ustomers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not
treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to
any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an
offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation
that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make
their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment
by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an indep endent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in
this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not
be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not
suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures
of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject
to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its
associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document.
They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as
a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed
therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or
in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction,
where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to
observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees
from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any
of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person Contact No. Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date 022 40548000 / 022 67490600 query@motilaloswal.com
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay 022 40548082 servicehead@motilaloswal.com
Mr. Ajay Menon 022 40548083 am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
2 May 2024 10