The 8th International Renewable Energy Congress (IREC 2017)
Calculate and Compare Five of Weibull Distribution Parameters to Estimate Wind Power in Iraq
Amani Altmimi
Department of Atmospheric
Collage of Science
Al Mustanseriya University
Baghdad, Iraq
E- mail:d.amani_altmimi@yahoo.com
Abass Ceekhan
Abstract—Study presents the estimate of wind
power in Iraq. Data of daily mean of wind speed were
obtained from the European Center for Medium-
range Weather Forecasts for 21 locations, measured
at 10, 30, and 50 m height above ground level over a
period (2010-2013). Weibull parameters (Shape and
Scale), were calculated using five different methods
namely, Maximum likelihood method, Probability
Plot Method, Modified Moment Method, Energy
Pattern Factor Method and Hazard Plot Method. The
five methods were compared by calculate the
correlation coefficient values between the daily mean
values of Weibull scale parameter and the mean wind
speed values which was found to be linear for all the
sites. Also the comparison shows that the energy
pattern factor method and maximum
Keywords-Weibull distribution, parameter
estimation, wind power density, GIS, Iraq.
I. INTRODUCTION
Because of the limited fossil fuel reserves, and also
the adverse effects associated with their use, the
alternatives energy becomes conventional energy
sources, especially the renewable ones become
increasingly attractive. Wind energy as one of these
important sources is perhaps the most suitable,
most effective and inexpensive sources for
electricity production as a result, it is vigorously
pursued in many countries [1]. Therefore, there
were many studies aimed to find the best fit
statistical distribution can represent the change that
occurs in the wind. By calculating the two
parameters (shape and scale) for Weibull
distribution the wind speed frequency curve for a
site can be made (Prasad et al., 2009) [2] and the
key to perform wind turbine and wind farm energy
calculation. Several methods have been proposed to
estimate Weibull parameters (Marks, 2005[3];
Pandey et al., 2011[4]; Bhattacharya and
Bhattacharjee, 2010[5]). In literature about wind
energy, these methods are
compared several times and in different ways
(Akdag and Ali, 2009[6], Yilmaz et al., 2005[7].
978-1-5090-6751-0/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE
Department of Atmospheric
Collage of Science
Al Mustanseriya University
Baghdad, Iraq
E-aabas969@gmail.com
In present study, five methods for estimating the
parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution
are presented [, Maximum Likelihood Method
(ML-M), Probability Plot Method(PP-M), Modified
maximum likelihood method (MML-M), Energy
pattern factor (EPF-M) and the Hazard Plot
Method(HP-M). The aim of this work was to select
a method that gives more accurate estimation for
the Weibull parameters in order to reduce
uncertainties related to the wind energy output
calculation.
II. METHODOLOGY
A. Weibull distribution function is a two-
parameter function expressed as [8]-
F(v)=(k/c)(v/c)k-1 exp[-(v/c)k] (1)
To estimate the dimensionless shape and the scale,
parameters of the Weibull distribution function,
five methods have been computed.
a. Maximum Likelihood Method
The method of maximum likelihood is a commonly
used procedure because it has very desirable
properties. (ML-M) is a mathematical expression
known as a likelihood function of the wind speed
data in time series format. The (ML-M) was used
for the estimation of parameters of the Weibull
wind speed distribution for wind energy utilization
purposes. The (ML-M) is solved through numerical
iterations to determine the parameters of the
Weibull distribution. The shape and the scale
parameters are estimated by use 2, 3[9]:
k=[∑i=1vk ln(vi)/∑i=1vk -∑i=1 ln(vi/n ]-1 (2)
c=(1/n∑i=1vk)1/k (3)
b.Probability Plot Method
Or the graphical method is achieved through the
cumulative distribution function. In this distribution
method, the wind speed data are interpolated by a
straight line, using the concept of least squares
regression. The logarithmic transformation is the
foundation of this method. By converting the
cumulative Weibull distribution function, use 4, 5
into logarithmic we obtained [10]:
1-F(v)=-e-(v/c)k
ln[-ln(1-f(v))]=kln(v)-kln(c)
The Weibull shape parameter is the slope of the
line and the y-intercept is the value of the term.
P= 0.5 ρ.v ³.π.r² (12)
The best wind capacity is the density of wind
capacity (Wind Power Density), because it will
give a clear picture of how to distribute wind speed
(4)
on average(mean) and this quantity can be
estimated in practice by using (Weibull
(5)
Distribution) which it depends on the two
parameter (c) scale and (k) shape parameters [15] –
WPD=1/2A3ρΓ (1+3/k) (13)

b. Modified maximum likelihood Method II. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimation
method (MML-M) is used only for wind speed data
available in the Weibull distribution format. The
MML-M is solved through numerical iterations to
determine the parameters of the Weibull
distribution. The shape factor and the scale factor
are estimated by use 6, 7[11].
k=ln(1/n)/ln(Y1/v) (6)
c=[(1-1/1/nk)Γ(1+1/k)/v-Y1 (7)
c. Energy pattern factor
The energy pattern factor, EPF-M, whose
application is in turbine aerodynamic design, can be
defined as the total amount of power available in
the wind divided by the power calculated from
cubing the average wind speed is given by [12]-
EPF=v av. 3/(v)3 (8)
k=1+3.69/(EPF)2 (9)
i.Hazard Plot Method
The hazard plotting technique is an estimation
procedure for the Weibull parameters. This is done
by plotting cumulative hazard function H(v) against
failure times on a hazard paper or a simple log-log
paper. The hazard function is given below [13]-
H(v)=k(ln(v)-ln(c)) (10)
ln(v)=1/klnH(v)=ln(c (11)
B. The Wind Power Density (WPD)
The wind power defines as a flood flow (flux) of
wind power through unit area perpendicular to the
direction of the wind, it is used to assess the
electrical potential which is resulting from the
turbine blades and it can be calculated from the
equation below-
In this study, 21 sites in Iraq have been selected for
the period (2010-2013). The wind speeds of these
sites are collected as six records per day during one
year from (ECMWF) are collected at 10-meter
height from ground surface we extrapolate to
another height (30,50) and this can be done using
power law.
By using equations (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11) we
calculate the scale and shape parameters for five
methods at height (30,50 m) for the period
(2010,2011,2012) as shown in table (1), Coloration
coefficient between the mean wind speed and the
scale parameters for five methods shows that the
(EPF-M) is the best method, as shown in table (2).
III. CONCLUIONS
According to the results, it might be concluded that
suitability of these methods may vary with the
sample such as data size, sample data distribution
(months), sample data format, and of fit tests. When
wind data is available in time series format,
according to the R2 test both the EPF and MLM,
respectively are the recommended methods for
estimating the scale parameter. From this
comparative study, it is observed that the highest
value of Wind power density at Rutba while the
lowest value at Erbil for all heights.
V. NOMENCLATURE
k shape parameter
c scale parameter m/s
v wind speed m/s
n number of data
Y1 first order
Г gamma function
r radius of turbine m
ρ air density kg/m3
WPD Wind Power Density W/m2
Z elevation m
 Table 1- Weibull parameters by five methods at height 50 m, 2012

Maximum Modified Probability Energy

Hazard plot
likelihood moment plot pattern factor

NO. Regions c c c c
k k c
k (m/s) (m/s) k (m/s) k (m/s)
(m/s)

1 Sulaymaniyah 1.42 3.80 1.48 3.86 1.36 3.89 1.45 3.84 1.61 3.89

2 Arbil 1.35 2.90 1.39 2.93 1.32 2.96 1.42 2.93 1.47 2.96

3 Kirkuk 1.39 3.83 1.44 3.88 1.31 3.89 1.40 3.85 1.57 3.90

4 Mosul 1.29 3.11 1.31 3.13 1.26 3.13 1.34 3.14 1.34 3.14

5 Talafar 1.30 3.21 1.34 3.25 1.27 3.27 1.35 3.25 1.39 3.27

6 Hawija 1.33 4.55 1.43 4.64 1.23 4.66 1.33 4.61 1.56 4.67

7 Amadiyah 1.30 3.21 1.34 3.25 1.27 3.27 1.35 3.25 1.39 3.27

8 Sinjar 1.15 3.43 1.19 3.47 1.23 3.45 1.16 3.45 1.18 3.46

9 Baiji 1.34 4.55 1.43 4.64 1.23 4.66 1.33 4.61 1.56 4.67

10 Baghdad 1.37 4.42 1.49 4.53 1.22 4.58 1.36 4.5 1.65 4.55

11 Hadeitha 1.3 4.86 1.42 4.99 1.18 5.04 1.29 4.96 1.54 5.03

12 Anah 1.37 5.69 1.49 5.84 1.17 5.94 1.32 5.79 1.65 5.87

13 Habbaniyah 1.37 3.42 1.49 3.50 1.22 3.54 1.38 3.47 1.65 3.52

14 Rutba 1.44 6.34 1.54 6.47 1.27 6.58 1.42 6.45 1.68 6.49

15 Najaf 1.35 4.63 1.49 4.73 1.25 4.78 1.38 4.70 1.64 4.76

16 Thrthar 1.30 3.75 1.42 3.85 1.18 3.89 1.30 3.82 1.54 3.89

17 Kut 1.36 4.81 1.47 4.92 1.25 4.96 1.33 4.89 1.64 4.97

18 Razzazah 1.39 3.58 1.49 3.65 1.25 3.69 1.39 3.64 1.64 3.67

19 Nasiriyah 1.38 4.70 1.49 4.81 1.24 4.85 1.35 4.77 1.64 4.84

20 Amarah 1.37 4.42 1.49 4.53 1.22 4.58 1.36 4.5 1.65 4.55

21 Basra 1.39 4.94 1.52 5.06 1.21 5.13 1.35 5.03 1.69 5.09
 Table 2- Coloration coefficient for the mean wind speed and the scale parameters for five methods all the
regions
Energy
Modified Hazard
Maximum Probability pattern
N0. Regions moment plot
likelihood plot factor
method method
method method method

1 Sulaymaniyah 0.999 0.995 0.983 0.986 1.000

2 Arbil 0.594 0.593 0.599 0.592 0.589

3 Kirkuk 0.911 0.910 0.891 0.895 0.905

4 Mosul 0.741 0.732 0.734 0.736 0.745

5 Talafar 0.998 0.994 0.989 0.990 0.999

6 Hawija 0.997 0.995 0.775 0.993 0.993

7 Amadiyah 0.998 0.843 0.989 0.990 0.999

8 Sinjar 0.996 0.992 0.993 0.586 0.903

9 Baiji 0.997 0.996 0.993 0.994 0.995

10 Baghdad 0.997 0.995 0.991 0.993 0.999

11 Hadeitha 0.996 0.993 0.985 0.990 0.997

12 Anah 0.988 0.974 0.914 0.961 0.992

13 Habbaniyah 0.998 0.996 0.901 0.993 0.996

14 Rutba 0.996 0.981 0.951 0.959 0.998

15 Najaf 0.996 0.985 0.980 0.982 0.997

16 Thrthar 0.996 0.993 0.985 0.989 0.997

17 Kut 0.998 0.978 0.985 0.986 0.999

18 Razzazah 0.996 0.984 0.977 0.979 0.997

19 Nasiriyah 0.999 0.991 0.980 0.982 0.998

20 Amarah 0.998 0.996 0.993 0.994 0.999

21 Basrah 0.996 0.989 0.983 0.985 0.988

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