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Planning Assumptions: Are They Really Necessary

and Valid?
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by retired LTC George Hodge Acronyms in this issue

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We have seen mission-analysis briefings for years that include a slide titled “Facts and Assumptions.” The
facts (bearing on the problem) are generally easy to identify and make sense of, primarily because they
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are just that, facts – evidence that stands on its own merit and needs no other confirmation because it is When we've got updates,
provable. Assumptions, on the other hand, are not currently provable but are based on sound logic, high we'll let you know...
probability of occurrence and applicability to the problem set.
S U BS C RI BE
However, it is common to dismiss many of the initial facts or assumptions because they are neither
necessary nor valid once we look critically at them. This article expounds on the criteria of necessary U NS U BS C RI BE
and valid and proposes that the best venue for addressing assumptions is actually at the beginning of
course-of-action (CoA) development rather than during the mission-analysis briefing.

Defining ‘necessary’ and ‘valid’

In a typical practice scenario where U.S. forces are moving into a contested area during an irregular-
warfare environment, typical assumptions often include comments such as “The guerrilla forces will
attempt to interdict and disrupt coalition forces with complex ambushes and improvised explosive
devices,” or “The host nation will be able to provide potable water to meet our unit’s needs.”

While both of the assumptions may be true and even valid, they do not meet the requirement of
“necessary,” thereby making them of no real value to our decision-making process at this point. Usually
the facts and assumptions listed during the mission-analysis briefing rarely pass the “so what” test. The
purpose of listing them is to allow the commander and staff to continue with the planning process in
selecting a CoA.

The U.S. Army’s Commander and Staff Officer Guide (Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (ATTP)
publication 5-0.1) defines facts and assumptions: “A fact is a statement of truth or a statement thought to
be true at the time. Facts concerning the operational and mission variables serve as the basis for
developing situational understanding, for continued planning and when assessing progress during
preparation and execution. In the absence of facts, the commander and staff consider assumptions from
their higher headquarters and develop their own assumptions necessary for continued planning. An
assumption is a supposition on the current situation or a presupposition on the future course of events,
either or both assumed to be true in the absence of positive proof necessary to enable the commander in

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February 28, 2019 3:15
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