CONSUMER & RETAIL • SUB SAHARAN (REGION) • INDUSTRY TREND ANALYSIS • BMI

SSA Personal Care Outlook

15 Feb 2024
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In 2024, consumers are projected to spend USD14.1bn across 11 selected Sub-

Saharan Africa markets (ie, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Cameroon,
Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana, Tanzania, Zambia and Gabon) for personal care.
South Africa will be largest personal care market over both 2024 and the medium-
term (2024-2028), while markets in East and West Africa will experience substantial
growth in demand. A young demographic, improving urbanisation and rising
appetite for personal care products will support mass market opportunities for both
retailers and personal care brands.
Personal Care Spending Outlook
Total Spend
Over 2024, we forecast the SSA region to spend USD14.1bn on personal care
products, across 11 selected markets (ie, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia,
Cameroon, Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana, Tanzania, Zambia and Gabon).
Despite not being the largest consumer market on a purely demographic size,
South Africa’s more developed economy and consumer market means that it leads
spending on personal care products, at USD4.6bn in 2024. East African markets,
Kenya (USD3.8bn), Uganda (USD1.6bn) and Ethiopia (USD1.4bn) are the three next
largest spenders on personal care products in 2024. Ethiopia’s population of over
110mn in 2024 boosts this market's total spending levels, while robust household
spending growth in Kenya and Uganda provide tailwinds to their personal care
spending, as consumers focus on more discretionary spending.
Over the medium term (2024-2028), we project personal care spending in SSA to
grow at an average annual rate of 5.0% y-o-y, taking spending to USD18.1bn by
2028. Cameroon will post the fastest growth in spending between 2024 and 2028,
averaging 12.3% y-o-y, as spending increases to USD1.5bn in 2028. More
developed mass grocery retail (MGR) channels - where the majority of personal care
spending is done in SSA - in South Africa and Namibia will see the two markets post
the slowest growth in spending over the medium-term, at 2.7% and 1.1% y-o-y
respectively. By 2028, South Africa will remain the largest spending market, at
USD5.2bn; however, Kenya will increasingly close the gap between it and South
Africa, with its spending growing to USD5.1bn.

Spending To Be Driven By Greater Consumer Exposure

SSA - Personal Care Spending, USDmn (2018-2028)

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

As a proportion of total consumer spending, SSA households allocate the smallest

proportion (4.6%) to personal care on a global comparison, but is in line with Asia (at
4.6% of total household spend). However, it remains below the global average of
5.0% of household spend in 2024. This is driven by low disposable incomes,
constrained supply of personal care products as well as elevated inflationary
environments that are driving allocations towards essential spending categories
such as food and non-alcoholic drinks, housing and utilities, and transport in
majority of markets. Kenyan consumers allocate the largest proportion of their
household budgets to personal care items, at 8.8% in 2024, while markets such as
Ghana, Gabon and Tanzania have proportional personal care spending that is less
than 2% of their household budgets.

SSA Tied With Asia, Lags Behind LatAm, Europe And North
America
Global – Personal Care Spending Proportion Of Total Spend, % (2024f)

f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI

Per capita levels of spending will remain modest, with an average of USD37.9 being
spent on personal care products over 2024. Over the medium term (2024-2028), we
forecast per capita spending to grow by an average annual rate of 4.5% y-o-y, taking
spending to USD47.3 by 2028. The benefit of Southern Africa’s more robust level of
disposable incomes means that consumer markets in the region stand out on a per
capita basis. Namibia has the largest level of per capita spend on personal care
products, at around USD295 in 2024. This is followed by Botswana at around
USD139.
Young Population Makes Region An Attractive Market
The SSA region has the youngest regional populations globally, with babies, children
and teenagers (0-19 years old) accounting for just over 52% of the population in
2024. With SSA’s total population forecasted to stand at 1.2bn in 2024, the region
will provide a substantial base of consumers to target. The young adult category
(20-39 years) which account accounts for 29.3% of the population will be provide a
large base of consumers of around 335mn, while the middle-aged population will
stand at over 210mn in 2024.
For personal care retailers and brands, targeting the teenagers and young adult
population will be vital, as consumers across the region remain highly brand-
agnostic and tend to choose products primarily on their price point. Over the
medium-to-longer term (2024-2050), the children and teenagers segment will move
into the young adult category and start earning salaries. They will begin to use their
excess purchasing power to start moving up price points and increasing the
frequency and quantity of their personal care purchases. This, alongside the
demographic size of SSA, will provide retailers with a longer-term draw to the
region, particularly as consumers remain price sensitive and relatively brand
agnostic.

Children And Young Adults Dominate The SSA Demographic

Global – Regional Demographic Breakdown, % (2024f)
f = BMI forecast. Source: UN, BMI

As individuals transition through life's stages, their personal care spending is

inevitably influenced by age-specific triggers. Infants and young children (0-9 years
old) necessitate purchases of gentle personal hygiene products, while pre-teens and
teenagers (10-19 years old) begin to spend on items such as acne-targeted skincare
and affordable cosmetics, driven by the quest for self-expression. Young adults
(20-39 years old), upon moving out of the family home due to marriage or
relocation, often invest in personal care essentials and may treat themselves to
luxury items that add a touch of indulgence to their personal care routines. This is
coupled with employment and incomes that can support this spend trajectory.
Middle-aged consumers (40-64 years old) are likely to allocate funds towards high-
quality personal care products, aligning their purchases with a desire to maintain
their appearance and wellness. Those aged 65 years or older typically focus their
spending on health-conscious products, prioritising comfort, ease of use and brand
loyalty within their personal care regimens.

Personal Care Spending Triggers By Age Group

Consumer Demographic Groups By Age (2024)
Source: BMI

By population size, the largest SSA markets in 2024 for the region are dominated by
Nigeria (229.2mn), Ethiopia (129.7mn), Tanzania (69.4mn) and South Africa (61.0mn).
East and West African markets will post robust population growth over the medium-
term, with many markets to grow by an average annual rate of 2.0% y-o-y. These
factors will contribute to Africa’s attractiveness in the mass market segment of retail,
with limited incomes and formal employment downplaying the opportunities for
widespread premiumisation, in favour of low-cost and basic items such as
toothbrushes, toothpastes, deodorants and body creams.
Gender Is A Key Trigger For Types Of Personal Care Products
Gender plays a key role as a spending trigger in SSA’s personal care market. Males
in the region are increasingly investing in grooming products, such as shavers and
beard trimmers, as well as aftershave balms and beard products, reflecting a
growing emphasis on male personal hygiene and appearance. Females are
channelling their expenditures into female hygiene products, make-up and
perfumes, sustaining a robust demand within these categories. The artificial hair
extension segment, as well as hair care products, are also vital spending categories.
They play a key role in how females in the region celebrate occasions such as
birthdays, weddings and other holidays. This consumption pattern is influenced by
cultural norms and social media, the rise of international beauty standards and the
availability of a wider range of products catering to gender-specific needs.
Over the long term (2024-2100), the region's male population is forecast to
decrease from 49.8% in 2024 to 49.1% by 2100, while the female population is set
to rise from 50.2% in 2024 to 50.9% by 2100. Despite the slight shift away from a
balanced gender distribution, the total numbers indicate that both male and female
populations will continue to grow in absolute terms until the turn of the century.
SSA’s male population will grow from 635.3mn in 2024 to 1.76bn by 2100. The
female population will expand from 639.3mn to 1.82bn between 2024 and 2100.
This means that while the market for gender-specific personal care products is likely
to expand in the coming decades, companies may eventually need to adjust their
strategies.

Females To Increase Their Share Of The Population

MENA – Gender Proportions Of The Population, % (2024-2100)

f = BMI forecast. Source: UN, BMI

Disposable Incomes To Expand, But Households Remain Concentrated Around
Low-Incomes
Across SSA, average household disposable incomes are concentrated around the
low-income bracket. In 2024, we forecast 93.2% of households on average to have
disposable incomes less than USD10,000. The largest income bracket in the region
is the USD1,000-5,000 segment, which markets such as Botswana, Kenya, Zambia,
Ghana, Uganda, Nigeria and Mozambique all having over 50% of their households
within this income bracket. This means that personal care product demand is highly
focused on affordability, with brand loyalty being low.
Households with disposable incomes greater than USD25,000 (which we classify as
high-income) are largely concentrated in South Africa. This group accounts for 6.8%
of households in 2024, while in the remaining markets (ie, Botswana, Kenya, Zambia,
Ghana, Uganda, Nigeria and Mozambique) this income bracket accounts for less
than 2% of the respective households. Over the medium-term, we forecast a
gradual expansion of consumers shifting from USD1,000-5,000 into the
USD5,000-10,000 income category. Coupled with greater product availability, aided
by higher levels of local production and a more established MGR sector, consumers
in SSA will gradually begin to move up price points in their personal care product
purchases, as well as scaling up how frequently they purchase goods.

South Africa Has The Most Attractive Income Dynamics

SSA - Proportion Of Households By Annual Disposable Income, % (2024f)

Source: BMI
Urbanisation Is A Key Driver To Household Goods Spending
Over the long term, through to 2050, urbanisation rates will become a key driver of
household goods spending. While SSA has a sizeable population, a vast majority live
in rural, hard to access regions. In 2024, we forecast 46.6% of the population to live
in urban areas. Through to 2050, this number will expand to 59.7%. This, alongside
substantial population growth, will result in burgeoning base of consumers for
personal care brands to target.
In 2024, we forecast Southern Africa to have the highest levels of urbanisation, with
markets such as Botswana, Angola and South Africa being the only markets in the
region to have urbanisation rates above 65%. By 2050, their respective urbanisation
rates will expand to 83.9%, 80.4% and 79.8% respectively. The East African markets
of Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya will post the highest percentage point increases in
their urbanisation rates between 2024 and 2050. Tanzania’s 17.3 percentage point
(pp) increase will push the majority of their population (55.4%) living in urban areas,
while Uganda and Kenya’s urbanisation rate will still be below 50% (44.2% and
46.3%, respectively) following 16.8pp and 16.2pp increases. Ultimately, higher rates
of urbanisation will make targeting consumers more accessible in SSA, via both
physical and digital channels. Last-mile delivery has faced headwinds in SSA due to
the challenging housing and road infrastructure; however, by 2050, we forecast
such factors to broadly improve, which will boost the prospects for last mile delivery
services, as well as e-commerce.

Urbanisation Rates To Improve Across The Region

SSA - Urbanisation, % of population (2024 & 2050)
f = BMI forecast. Source: UN, BMI

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