2023.Q3 - Fitch - Ghana Food & Drink Report

Exclusively for the use of Veronica Kekana at The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited.
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Q3 2023
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Ghana
Food & Drink R
Report
eport
Includes 5-year forecasts to 2027
Exclusively for the use of Veronica Kekana at The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited. Downloaded: 14-Aug-2023
Ghana Food & Drink Report | Q3 2023
Contents
Key View............................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Food & Drink SWOT...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Industry Forecast........................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Food ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Drink.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12
Industry Trends And Developments .....................................................................................................................................17
Industry Risk/Reward Index ....................................................................................................................................................23

Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index: Ghana In The Spotlight, Nigeria In Second, SA Only Top
50 Market.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23
Sub-Saharan Africa Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index: South Africa Tops Region, Ghana Ranks Fifth, Spotlight On Zambia...34
Market Overview..........................................................................................................................................................................44
Food .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................44
Drink.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................48
Mass Grocery Retail....................................................................................................................................................................................................................50
Competitive Landscape.............................................................................................................................................................52
Company Profile...........................................................................................................................................................................53
Accra Brewery .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................53
Fan Milk...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................56
Guinness Ghana Breweries ....................................................................................................................................................................................................59
Shoprite..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................62
Ghana Demographic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................64
Food & Drink Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................67
Food & Drink Methodology .......................................................................................................................................................68
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Key View
Key View: We continue to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for Ghana’s food and non-alcoholic drink industry, with
improving rates of nominal growth (at 36.2% and 40.0% y-o-y respectively) than seen in 2022. Although this growth is being driven
primarily by inflation, growth rates will fall below average inflation, predicted to come in at 35.5% across the year. While we anticipate
a disinflationary trend in 2023, inflation will only come down gradually as tax hikes – including an increase in the value-added tax to
15.0%, from 12.5% previously – will exert upward pressure on consumer prices. Other fiscal consolidation measures, such as the
introduction of an income tax bracket of 35.0%, will further squeeze household finances. Alcoholic drinks spending will also gain
some modest real growth in 2023, driven by consumption levels forecast to grow by 4.6%, with beer consumption growing above
the industry rate.
Inflation Is Driving Food & Drink Spending Growth

Ghana - Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Spending, GHSmn (2020-2027)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
• Growth in food and non-alcoholic drinks spending in Ghana in 2023 will accelerate to 36.3%, being driven primarily by the
country’s continued high inflationary environment. However, we predict that food and non-alcoholic drinks spending will deliver
very modest real terms growth during 2023, as we forecast inflation to average 35.5% across the year.
• We forecast food spending growth to accelerate to 36.2% y-o-y in 2023 from an estimated 32.4% y-o-y in 2022, taking total
spending to GHS236.2bn. Over the medium term (2023-2027), we forecast food spending to grow by an average of 19.5% a
year, taking it to GHS416.3bn by the end of 2027.
• Growth in Ghana’s non-alcoholic drinks spending category will also accelerate over 2023. We forecast spending to grow by
almost 40.0% over the year, to a total of GHS13.0bn. While over the medium term, spending will grow by an annual average of
20.9%, taking total spending in 2027 to GHS23.6bn.
• We forecast spending growth on alcoholic drinks in Ghana to accelerate to 42.3% y-o-y over 2023 from an estimated 39.8% in
2022, taking total spending to just under GHS21.0bn. This level of growth is significantly higher than the medium-term growth
trajectory, where we forecast spending to grow by an average of 21.8% a year, to a total of GHS38.8bn by the end of 2027.
• Consumption of alcoholic drinks is expected to perform well, with growth forecast at 4.6% over 2023, to an average of around 13
litres per adult. This trend will continue over the next five years, where consumption will grow by an average of 3.3% a year, to a
total of 247.8mn litres.

• In February 2023, e-commerce platform Jumia announced that it had discontinued its food delivery service in Egypt, Ghana and
Senegal, in an effort to reduce operational costs in Africa.
• On March 31 2023, the Ghanaian parliament approved the Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2023, which among other things
introduces a new excise duty of 20% on all sugar sweetened beverages. The measure also increases existing rates of duty on
wine, malt drinks and spirits, while taking the duty payable on mineral water from 17.5% to 20%.
Inflation Outlook
Inflationary pressures are peaking in many markets, as central banks raise rates to rein in higher prices. However, inflation, especially
for food items, remains elevated. Higher prices are eroding nominal wage gains, squeezing the purchasing power of households
and shifting consumer spending from discretionary spending. In many markets, a combination of higher wage inflation, localised
supply chain constraints and bottlenecks, and continued mismatches in demand and supply are adding upward pressure to prices.
Similarly, the global effects of geopolitical events and flashpoints will weigh on prices beyond the short term.
Inflation in Ghana has continued to trend downward in 2023 and in April 2023 (latest data available at the time of writing) it dropped
to 41.2%, down from 45.0% in March. While this remains an extremely high inflation rate, the steady downward trend suggests that
inflation in Ghana has now peaked. Food price inflation remains higher than overall inflation but this too is trending downward,
slowing to 48.7% in April 2023, after growth of 50.8% was recorded in March 2023. Inflation will only come down gradually in 2023
as tax hikes – including an increase in the value-added tax to 15.0%, from 12.5% previously – will exert upward pressure on
consumer prices. Therefore, our 2023 forecast remains well above the Central Bank of Ghana’s inflation target rate of 8.0% (±2.0%).
Inflation In Ghana Has Peaked

Ghana - Consumer Price Inflation & Food Price Inflation, % y-o-y (2019-2023)
Source: Ghana Statistical Service, BMI
The wider economic challenges facing households and consumers stem from the reopening of many economies. Inflationary
pressures are driven by demand-pull and cost-push inflation. In an attempt to rein in inflation, Central Banks have hiked their policy
rates at some of the quickest rates ever, making much of the debt issued during the historically low interest rate period less
valuable. This is combined with the tightening of quantitative easing, financial institutions facing liquidity issues and severe interest
rate risks. While this is a relatively new issue, ongoing factors, such as labour market dynamics and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,
continue to place downward pressure on our consumer outlook. The economic trajectory of many markets’ post-Covid recovery
highlight the risk of increasing unemployment and its impact on consumer outlooks in the short term. The graphic below
summarises these risks to the outlook over 2023.
Ghanaian Consumers Still Facing Inflationary Pressures

Global Drivers Of Inflation
Source: BMI
SWOT
Food & Drink SWOT
Strengths Weaknesses
• Food consumption is expected to post robust growth over the • Due to low average incomes, consumers have limited
medium-term, as incomes rise in line with moderate economic opportunities outside of the essential category.
growth. • Per capita food spending is low and does not yet distinguish
• Ghana has a relatively large population, including a significant Ghana from most other markets in the region.
youth population, with rapidly evolving tastes and preferences. • Wealth is highly concentrated around Accra, meaning
• The country has a diverse agricultural resource opportunities for retailers in the northern and western parts of
base incorporating aquaculture, fruits and vegetables, as well as the country are small.
softs, such as grains and livestock. • Per capita formal beer consumption is low, with the illicit beer
• The country's business environment is among the region's market thriving.
most stable and investment friendly.
• The country has a considerably high rate of urbanisation, with
incomes rapidly rising.
Opportunities Threats
• The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in consumers increasing their • The weakening of the cedi, particularly against the dollar,
adoption of e-commerce services, and we expect the use of stands to make food imports far more expensive for
these services to continue over the 2023-2027 period. consumers.
• Food delivery, through brands such as Glovo and Bolt Food, is • Ghana’s exposure to imports from Russia, Ukraine and Asian
also growing in popularity, particularly amongst the younger markets have caused rising levels of food inflation, which will
working population. have a negative impact over the short-to-medium term.
• Low levels of per capita food consumption mean there is room • The high levels of unemployment will keep consumer spending
for long-term growth. below its potential.
• Rising health consciousness will continue to provide • Consumers remain price sensitive.
opportunities for food processors, particularly in items such as • The strength of the illicit beer market will continue to pose
millet and fruit. challenges to leading beer companies.
• With disposable incomes set to grow considerably over the next • Ghana's MGR development is likely to depend on foreign
decade, significant investment in organised retail is expected. investment in the sector.
• The rapid expansion of retail space will foster the development
of formal MGR, however this will largely be concentrated to
Accra.
• The rise of the working class is increasing demand for
convenient food and drink delivery services and there is
growing demand for locally farmed and produced products.
• The growth of trade and expansion of Nigerian companies into
Ghana will provide greater variety for consumers and drive
competition.
Industry Forecast
Food
Key View: We forecast that 2023 will see stronger nominal growth in food spending in Ghana up to 36.2% y-o-y, although this is
largely attributable to particularly high levels of food price inflation. However, we predict that food spending growth will modestly
outpace average inflation across the year. Over the medium term we forecast that food spending in Ghana will increase by an
annual average 19.5%, supported by a growing middle class and increasing levels of urbaniSation, with the fresh vegetables
spending category outperforming and delivering annual average growth of 27.6% out to 2027, reaching GHS135.9bn (up from
GHS55.6bn in 2023). Across the same period, the pasta products category will be the underperformer, delivering annual average
growth of just 1.7% and taking total spending to GHS2.9bn.
Latest Updates
• We forecast that food sales will deliver growth of 36.2% y-o-y in 2023, with spending increasing to GHS236.2bn (USD20.7bn).
This growth is largely driven by continued high levels of inflation in Ghana.
• The outperforming food category in 2023 is forecast to be the other food products category, which will outpace inflation and
deliver year-on-year growth of 39.9% and taking spending to GHS15.7bn (USD1.4bn). In contrast, pasta products spending will
underperform, showing growth of just 6.3% y-o-y, significantly below the average rate of inflation.
• Over the medium term to 2027, we forecast food spending in Ghana to grow by an average 19.5% per annum, taking total
spending to GHS416.3bn (USD37.6bn).
Structural Trends
2023 Food Outlook
We forecast food spending to grow by 36.2% y-o-y in 2023 to reach GHS236.2bn, increasing from the estimated GHS173.4bn in
2022. Spending growth is largely attributable to the high levels of inflation in Ghana, which are forecast at 35.5% in 2023. This will
mean consumers will continue to prioritise essentials over the short-term (2023-2024). The effects of the weakening of the
Ghanaian cedi is seen by 2023, with US dollar food spending being lower than the 2022 number. The effects of the Russia-Ukraine
conflict and subsequent food protectionist policies have limited Ghana’s supply of food products, such as wheat and palm oil, thus
driving up food prices.
Food Sales
Ghana - Food Sales & Growth (2020-2027)
Medium-Term Trends
Over the 2023-2027 period, we forecast food spending to grow by an annual average of 19.5%, increasing from GHS236.2bn in
2023 to GHS416.3bn in 2027. While spending will be supported by wider economic growth, which will result in higher incomes, high
levels of inflation over 2023 and into the medium-term and local currency depreciation are downside risks to our forecast. Most of
the growth in food consumption is likely to occur in the wealthier southern region, with the north/south divide within the country
posing developmental issues. The way Ghana manages its oil endowment is likely to have a large bearing on how effectively this
distortion is addressed over the long term.
Bread, Rice And Cereals
We forecast bread, rice and cereals spending to grow by an annual average of 17.5% over the 2023-2027 period. With the levels of
inflation experienced, staples will remain a key part of food spending budgets. This will result in bread, rice and cereals spending
increasing from GHS67.1bn in 2023 to GHS106.4bn in 2027. Rice is the most important staples category and we expect Ghanaian
consumer spending on rice to remain strong over the 2023-2027 period. We believe real rice consumption in Ghana is considerably
higher because of the unrecorded rice imports from Côte d'Ivoire.
Fish And Fish Products
Fish is considered a very important source of animal protein and is more affordable in processed forms than other types of meat.
Fisheries make a significant contribution to the country's economy (around 5% in terms of agriculture), with aquaculture the object
of keen interest in recent years. Commercial farming is expected to take on even more importance in the coming years in line with
changing economic demands as well as the government's promotion of the sector. Over the 2023-2027 period, we project
spending on fish and fish products to grow by an average annual growth rate of 17.6% to reach GHS108.6bn in 2027, increasing
from GHS68.3bn in 2023.
Sugar And Sugar Products
We expect the growing commitment to Ghana's cocoa industry from multinational companies Mondelēz and Hershey, in the
form of support for small cocoa farmers, to sustain cocoa production over our forecast period. A growing demand for chocolate,
sweets and similar items (experiencing an average annual growth rate of 17.6% in local currency terms over the 2023-2027 period)
will cause Ghana's confectionery sector to experience strong growth, as consumer demand for non-essential products
increases. Growth in this sub-category will largely be driven by rising incomes. Over the coming years, we believe that local cocoa
processors, such as Ghana Cocoa Processing Company and Niche Cocoa, will drive mass adoption as they continue to
introduce locally processed chocolate to the Ghanaian retail sector.
FOOD SALES (GHANA 2020-2027)

Indicator 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Food, sales, GHSmn 111,795.8 130,959.7 173,355.6 236,186.3 284,180.2 324,377.3 368,051.0 416,262.3
Food, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-y 2.4 17.1 32.4 36.2 20.3 14.1 13.5 13.1
Bread, rice and cereals, sales, GHSmn 31,038.3 35,743.8 48,505.6 67,110.4 79,891.5 88,863.3 97,682.0 106,433.9
Bread, rice and cereals, sales, GHSmn, %

-14.2 15.2 35.7 38.4 19.0 11.2 9.9 9.0
growth y-o-y
Pasta products, sales, GHSmn 2,386.2 2,452.2 2,636.6 2,802.1 2,871.4 2,885.3 2,880.5 2,857.7
Pasta products, sales, GHSmn, % growth

-12.2 2.8 7.5 6.3 2.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.8
y-o-y
Baked goods, sales, GHSmn 393.6 414.9 485.0 578.5 635.9 670.8 703.4 734.3
Baked goods, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-

-12.2 5.4 16.9 19.3 9.9 5.5 4.9 4.4
o-y
Meat and Poultry, sales, GHSmn 3,372.5 3,476.4 3,892.5 4,407.3 4,687.5 4,828.5 4,948.2 5,051.4
Meat and Poultry, sales, GHSmn, %

-13.4 3.1 12.0 13.2 6.4 3.0 2.5 2.1
growth y-o-y
Fish and fish products, sales, GHSmn 31,408.1 36,206.2 49,239.7 68,269.4 81,358.8 90,557.3 99,596.2 108,564.5
Fish and fish products, sales, GHSmn, %

-14.3 15.3 36.0 38.6 19.2 11.3 10.0 9.0
growth y-o-y
Dairy, sales, GHSmn 2,100.7 2,243.4 2,626.7 3,124.7 3,461.0 3,708.3 3,969.0 4,258.5
Dairy, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-y -15.1 6.8 17.1 19.0 10.8 7.1 7.0 7.3
Oils and Fats, sales, GHSmn 5,048.7 5,759.3 7,678.1 10,456.5 12,362.8 13,701.6 15,016.8 16,321.5
Oils and Fats, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-

-14.4 14.1 33.3 36.2 18.2 10.8 9.6 8.7
o-y
Fresh and preserved fruit, sales, GHSmn 2,975.7 3,066.8 3,315.6 3,550.8 3,655.2 3,692.6 3,710.9 3,701.3
Fresh and preserved fruit, sales, GHSmn,

-15.1 3.1 8.1 7.1 2.9 1.0 0.5 -0.3
% growth y-o-y
Fresh vegetables, sales, GHSmn 23,846.6 30,915.9 40,382.2 55,570.8 70,998.8 88,437.6 109,783.9 135,870.4
Fresh vegetables, sales, GHSmn, %

259.3 29.6 30.6 37.6 27.8 24.6 24.1 23.8
growth y-o-y
Sugar and sugar products, sales, GHSmn 2,175.7 2,488.3 3,338.3 4,574.6 5,420.9 6,012.6 6,593.0 7,168.2
Sugar and sugar products, sales, GHSmn,

-14.4 14.4 34.2 37.0 18.5 10.9 9.7 8.7
% growth y-o-y
Other food products, sales, GHSmn 7,049.7 8,192.4 11,255.3 15,741.1 18,836.5 21,019.3 23,167.1 25,300.6
Other food products, sales, GHSmn, %

-14.2 16.2 37.4 39.9 19.7 11.6 10.2 9.2
growth y-o-y
Drink
Key View: The non-alcoholic drinks sector in Ghana is forecast to deliver spending growth in 2023 of 40.0% y-o-y, which is an
increase from the estimated 37.2% y-o-y growth for 2022 and higher than our 35.5% forecast for average inflation in Ghana across
the year. Over the medium term, we forecast slowing but still strong growth with annual average growth coming in at 20.9% out to
2027. Growth prospects in the alcoholic drinks segment in 2023 are also strong, with sales growth also expected to outperform
inflation at 42.3% y-o-y and consumption levels increasing by 4.6%.
Latest Updates
• Over the course of 2023, spending on alcoholic drinks in Ghana is expected to increase by an inflation driven 42.3% y-o-y,
gaining traction from the rate of 39.8% y-o-y seen in 2022. While inflation is responsible for much of this growth, spending is set
to outpace inflation, as a result we expect volume sales of alcohol to grow by 4.6% in 2023, with consumption ticking up to a
total 220.3mn litres.
• During 2023, the outperforming alcoholic drinks segment is expected to be the beer segment, delivering consumption growth
of 4.8% y-o-y, while spirits will underperform with consumption growing by 3.1% y-o-y.
• We forecast that spending on non-alcoholic drinks in Ghana will grow by 40.0% y-o-y in 2023, accelerating from the 37.2% y-o-y
growth estimated for 2022, and taking total spending in nominal terms to just over GHS13.0bn.
• Over the course of the year, the outperforming non-alcoholic drinks segment is expected to be the fruit and vegetable juices
segment, with a forecast growth rate of 53.4% y-o-y.
Structural Trends
Alcoholic Drinks
2023 Alcoholic Drinks Outlook
We forecast alcoholic drinks spending to grow by 42.3% in 2023, before slowing to 22.7% over 2024. Spending growth will largely
be driven by elevated levels of inflation over the short-term. Over 2023, we forecast alcoholic drinks consumption to grow at a rate
of 4.6%, slowing to 3.9% over 2024. Within the alcoholic drinks category, we forecast beer consumption to grow by 4.8%, making it
the fastest-growing alcoholic drinks category. This will be followed by the wine and spirits categories, which we forecast to grow by
3.6% and 3.1% respectively.
Alcohol Consumption Growth To Slow

Ghana - Total Alcohol Consumption, litres mn (2020-2027)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Trademap, BMI
Medium-Term Trends
Across our 2023-2027 forecast period, we expect alcoholic drinks spending to deliver an average annual growth rate of 21.8%. This
will take spending in nominal terms from just under GHS21.0 in 2023 to GHS38.8bn in 2027.
In terms of alcoholic drinks consumption, we forecast an average annual growth rate of 3.3% y-o-y, increasing from 220.3mn litres
in 2023 to 247.8mn litres in 2027. Total consumption of alcoholic drinks can be broken down into three categories: beer, wine and
spirits. We forecast beer and wine consumption to experience solid growth over the 2023-2027 period. A combination of household
income growth and the continuing formalisation of the industry will drive most of this growth in beer consumption. As a result,
Ghana should begin to establish itself as one of the stronger opportunities for the beer industry across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
over the medium term. As with many countries in Africa, beer tends to dominate alcoholic drinks consumption patterns. While more
developed than neighbouring markets, Ghana's beer market is dominated by the informal sector, where homebrew,
neighbourhood bars and taverns are common. We project per capita consumption of beer to reach 11.1 litres in 2027, increasing
from 10.8 litres in 2023. A strong volume growth outlook reflects our wider macroeconomic view, particularly as more middle-class
consumers will be able to purchase commercial beer in greater volumes.
We expect wine and spirits to have low per capita consumption rates over our 2023-2027 forecast period. In the wine category,
sweet and sparkling wines are popular as in other African countries, while for spirits, ready-to-drink beverages are popular.
TOTAL ALCOHOLIC DRINKS SPENDING AND CONSUMPTION (GHANA 2020-2027)

Indicator 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Alcoholic drinks spending, GHSbn 8.99 10.54 14.73 20.97 25.72 29.69 34.00 38.78
Alcoholic drinks spending, GHS % y-o-y 2.40 17.14 39.82 42.33 22.66 15.43 14.54 14.03
Alcoholic drinks spending, GHS per household 1,089.99 1,235.41 1,672.20 2,304.30 2,736.11 3,057.52 3,390.76 3,743.90
Alcoholic drinks spending, GHS per capita 279.48 320.89 440.05 614.48 739.49 837.68 941.88 1,054.62
Total alcohol consumption, litres mn 188.7 200.4 210.7 220.3 228.9 236.5 242.8 247.8
Total alcohol consumption, litres mn, % y-o-y 2.1 6.2 5.2 4.5 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.1
Total alcohol consumption, litres per capita 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.3
Beer, litres mn 155.6 165.3 174.4 182.7 190.2 196.7 202.0 206.0
Beer, litres mn, % y-o-y 2.0 6.2 5.5 4.8 4.1 3.4 2.7 2.0
Beer, litres per capita 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1
Wine, litres mn 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0
Wine, litres mn, % y-o-y 1.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8
Wine, litres per capita 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Spirits, litres mn 18.0 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8
Spirits, litres mn, % y-o-y 4.0 7.9 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9
Spirits, litres per capita 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: World Health Organization, BMI
Non-Alcoholic Drinks
2023 Non-Alcoholic Drinks Outlook
Our forecast for 2023 non-alcoholic drinks spending is growth of 40.0% y-o-y in 2023 to reach GHS13.0bn. Coffee, teas and other
hot drinks spending is forecast to grow 36.3% in 2023, while soft drinks spending (which consists of fruit and vegetable juices,
bottled water and carbonated drinks) will post growth of 45.5%. Inflation will contribute significantly to these growth forecasts.
Steady Growth For Non-Alcoholic Drinks

Ghana - Non-Alcoholic Drinks Sales (2020-2027)
Medium-Term Trends
Our 2023-2027 forecast for non-alcoholic drinks spending is an average annual growth rate of 20.9%. This will take non-alcoholic
drinks spending from GHS13.0bn in 2023 to GHS23.6bn in 2027. Non-alcoholic drinks sales can be broken down into spending on
hot drinks (which accounts for GHS7.6bn of forecasted non-alcoholic spending in 2023) and spending on soft drinks (the remaining
GHS5.4bn). Over the medium-term, we forecast that soft drinks spending will grow at an annual average growth rate of 24.6%, while
the coffee, tea and other hot drinks segment is forecast to grow at 18.2%.
With disposable incomes generally low, carbonates have been able to serve as affordable indulgences and thirst quenchers. The
latter is particularly true given the scarcity of drinkable water and the fact that - assisted by the distributional and marketing
practices adopted by The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo and their franchise bottlers - kiosks have been able to stock
refrigerated soft drinks.
Low-cost carbonates have grown dynamically across SSA over the past decade, with strong compound annual growth recorded
across much of SSA. Bottlers typically raise prices below the rate of inflation to drive volume growth, bearing in mind that soft drinks
are generally a low-margin business in SSA. We believe Ghana will redistribute growth, better than many of its regional peers, which
is good for soft drinks sales, provided a favourable excise climate is maintained.
Soft drinks sales can be further broken down into different categories, namely, spending on fruit and vegetable sales, mineral or
spring waters and carbonated drinks. Within this category, we hold a bright outlook for fruit and vegetable juices. We forecast fruit
and vegetable juice sales to grow at an average rate of 28.2%% per year over our 2023-2027 forecast period and it will be followed
by carbonated drinks, which we forecast to grow by an average of 22.7% over the same period.
NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS SALES (GHANA 2020-2027)

Indicator 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Non-alcoholic drinks, sales, GHSmn 5,780.7 6,771.6 9,293.8 13,008.2 15,845.4 18,221.7 20,803.5 23,653.6
Non-alcoholic drinks, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-y 2.4 17.1 37.2 40.0 21.8 15.0 14.2 13.7
Coffee, teas and other hot drinks, sales, GHSmn 3,603.2 4,161.0 5,590.1 7,619.4 9,075.8 10,229.2 11,439.9 12,727.1
Coffee, teas and other hot drinks, sales, GHSmn, %

101.5 15.5 34.3 36.3 19.1 12.7 11.8 11.3
growth y-o-y
Soft drinks, sales, GHSmn 2,177.5 2,610.5 3,703.7 5,388.8 6,769.6 7,992.5 9,363.6 10,926.5
Soft drinks, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-y -43.5 19.9 41.9 45.5 25.6 18.1 17.2 16.7
Fruit and vegetable juices, sales, GHSmn 737.9 884.6 1,299.4 1,993.8 2,577.4 3,095.9 3,694.2 4,394.5
Fruit and vegetable juices, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-

-42.3 19.9 46.9 53.4 29.3 20.1 19.3 19.0
y
Mineral or spring waters, sales, GHSmn 38.8 42.7 54.3 70.3 79.8 86.0 92.2 98.6
Mineral or spring waters, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-y -44.3 10.2 27.2 29.4 13.5 7.7 7.2 7.0
Carbonated drinks, sales, GHSmn 1,400.8 1,683.2 2,349.9 3,324.6 4,112.4 4,810.7 5,577.2 6,433.4
Carbonated drinks, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-y -44.2 20.2 39.6 41.5 23.7 17.0 15.9 15.4
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Industry Trends And Developments

Key View
• We project the average Ghanaian households to allocate 40.2% of their household budgets to food in 2027, decreasing from
43.3% in 2008. This decrease has come mainly as a result of rising incomes allowing households to spend proportionally less on
food. Nevertheless, Ghanaian households will continue to prioritise essentials even as their disposable incomes increase.
• Over 2022 and 2023, real food spending has contracted as the market deals with highly elevated levels of food and general
inflation. Over the medium-term (2023-2027), we forecast a rebound in real food spending, more in line with stronger
performance over our entire forecast period.
• In 2027, Ghanaian food spending budgets will be concentrated on three food categories which are fresh vegetables, fish and
products and bread, rice and cereals. Fish is an affordable source of protein for most households in the country and it is a key
part of local diets as it features in many traditional dishes while the large share of bread, rice and cereals in food spending
budgets indicates that Ghanaian consumers will maintain their focus on staples.
• In Ghana, like in many emerging markets, sugar and sugar products spending growth is strong and we believe that there are
significant opportunities for confectionery, particularly chocolate products as Ghana is a major cocoa producer.
Dietary Spending Shift Overview
Between 2008 and 2027, food spending will remain the largest consumer spending segment. At 40.2% of total household spending
in 2027, this is slightly down from 43.3% in 2008. This decrease has come mainly as a result of rising incomes allowing households
to spend proportionally less on food. Nevertheless, Ghanaian households will continue to prioritise essentials even as their
disposable incomes increase. We forecast disposable income per household in Ghana to average GHS68,100 (USD6,145) in 2027,
increasing from GHS10,500 (USD5,300) in 2013 (earliest data available).
In real terms, we forecast spending to grow from GHS43.9bn in 2014, to GHS75.1bn in 2027, translating to an annual average
growth rate of 5.1%. Following the high inflation period over 2022 and 2023, where real food spending growth will be negative, will
make a stronger recovery over 2024-2027.
Despite Challenging Periods, Real Food Spending Will Grow Robustly

Ghana - Food Spending, Real (2014-2027)
In 2027, as in 2008, food spending in Ghana will be concentrated in three food spending categories, particularly fresh vegetables
(32.6%), fish and fish products (26.1%) and bread, rice and cereals (25.6%), making 84.3% of total food spending. This is a significant
shift when compared to 2008 figures, however, where the same three categories made up 67.9% of total food spending. The spread
of mass grocery retail and in general food formalisation, has made the prices of the three staple food categories more affordable
and allowed consumers to increase their level of consumption. Meat and poultry, decreasing from 7.9% to 1.2%, and dairy,
decreasing from 3.7% to 1.0%, have seen their proportional shares of spending fall over 2008 to 2027; however, the segments have
also benefitted from greater affordability and have been able to maintain their level of consumption, while spending a similar/
smaller amount.
Consumers Have Grown Their Focus On Key Spending Segments

Ghana - Food Spending Breakdown, % of total food sales (2008 & 2027f)
f = BMI forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI
Staples Are Important In Local Diets, With Rice Dominating
We project bread, rice and cereals spending in Ghana to increase to GHS106.4bn (USD9.6bn) in 2027, increasing from GHS2.3bn
(USD2.2bn) in 2008. This translates to an average annual growth rate of 22.3% y-o-y. Within the bread, rice and cereals category,
rice will make up the largest share of total spending at 65.8% in 2027, declining from 75.0% in 2012. The bread category will have
the second largest share of staples spending at 33.0% in 2027, increasing from 20.8% in 2012. Finally, the other cereal products
category share of staples spending will decline slightly to 1.2% in 2027 from 4.2% in 2012.
Spending Trends Within The Staples Segment Have Evolved

Ghana - Bread, Rice & Cereals Spending, % of total (2012-2027)
In Ghana, like in many West African countries, rice forms a key part of local diets. Rice is typically served during lunch or supper
along with meat and vegetables. Some popular rice dishes in Ghana include jollof rice (slightly different from the version served in
neighbouring Nigeria) waakye and fried rice. Long grain jasmine rice is the most popular type of rice as it is considered to increase
the flavour of meals. Most of the rice that is consumed in Ghana is imported from countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and India. We
project rice spending growth to be strong over our 2008-2027 forecast period, expanding by an average annual growth rate of
29.0% y-o-y. This will take spending rice spending to GHS70.0bn (USD6.3bn) in 2027, increasing from GHS924.0bn (USD878.1mn)
in 2008.
Other cereals such as maize, and pearl millet are also consumed in the country. White maize is fermented in order to prepare dishes
such as kenkey and banku, which are usually accompanied by a sauce prepared with vegetables and grilled or fried fish. White
maize and pearl millet are also used to prepare koko porridge which is usually eaten for breakfast. Other cereals spending will be
strong over our 2008-2027 forecast period, growing at an annual average rate of 15.2%.
Bread is also popular in Ghana and is typically consumed for breakfast or lunch with, tea or coffee along with eggs or spreads such
as margarine, butter, jam and peanut butter. Ghanaians usually buy their bread from formal retailers, particularly stand-alone
bakeries or mass grocery retailers. We forecast spending on bread to reach GHS35.1bn (USD3.2bn) in 2027, increasing from
GHS608.7mn (USD578.5mn) in 2009. This translates to an average annual growth rate of 26.4% y-o-y.
Fish Is A Key Feature In Many Local Dishes
Fish is an affordable source of protein for the majority of households in Ghana and it features in many of the country’s traditional
dishes such as jollof rice, waakye (rice and beans combination), banku (eaten with tilapia), as well as kenkey and fish. We project
spending on fish and fish products to grow by an average annual growth rate of 22.4% y-o-y, making it the second fastest growing
food spending categories in Ghana over the 2008-2027 period. In 2027, fish and fish products spending will reach GHS108.5bn
(USD10.0bn) 2027, increasing from GHS2.8bn (USD2.6bn) in 2008. Fish and fish products spending will reach GHS2,952 (USD266.5)
in 2027 in per capita terms, increasing from GHS113.8 (USD108.1) in 2027. While Ghanaian consumers have historically purchased
fish at wet markets, we are seeing a gradual shift towards shopping through the formal retail market. In order to enhance the shelf-
life, fish products are often dried as a means of preservation, however, consumption of fresh fish is increasing in the country.
Fish Spending Growth Will Be Strong

Ghana - Food Spending Growth, GHS, avg % y-o-y growth (2008-2027)
Source: National sources, BMI
Strong Spending On Sugar Products Presents Opportunities For Confectionery
The sugar and sugar products category will post an average annual growth of 21.8% y-o-y over our 2008-2027 forecast period, with
spending increasing to GHS7.2bn (USD646.9mn) in 2027 from GHS195.3mn (USD185.6mn) in 2008. The shift to shopping through
formal retail channels is aiding growth in sugar and sugar products spending. Furthermore, we see significant potential in Ghana’s
confectionery sector, particularly as the country is a major cocoa producer, but the processing industry, especially for final products
like chocolate and confectionery, is still relatively under developed. However, the government has increasingly been incentivising
the sector, which will bode well for consumers, who will increasingly have access to these products at cheaper rates than the
historically imported products. We forecast spending on chocolates, sweets and similar products to reach GHS2.4bn (USD217.3mn)
in 2027, increasing from GHS67.5mn (USD64.1mn) in 2008. Our 2027 forecast for per capita spending on chocolate, sweets and
similar products is GHS65.5 (USD5.9) in 2025, increasing from GHS2.8 (USD2.6) in 2008.
The major chocolate producers in Ghana are Cocoa Processing Company Limited (CPC) which sells the Golden Tree brand
and Niche Cocoa Industry, Ltd which sells the Niche chocolate brand. CPC states that it processes 65,000 metric tonnes of
cocoa beans per year while Niche states that it processes 120,000 metric tonnes of cocoa per year. Both of the companies produce
chocolate and other cocoa derived products and sell different kinds of chocolates such as dark chocolate, milk chocolate and
flavoured chocolates.
Local Production Is Rapidly Increasing Consumer Demand For Chocolate

Ghana - Chocolate, Sweets & Similar, GHS (2009-2027)
Industry Risk/Reward Index

Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index:
Ghana In The Spotlight, Nigeria In Second, SA Only Top 50 Market
Key View: The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region is the lowest-ranking region in our 2023 update of our Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Risk/Reward Index (RRI), with a regional average score of 37.6 out of 100. South Africa is the regional leader, ranking first out of 16
markets in the SSA region with an overall RRI score of 51.4 out of 100, slightly above Nigeria, with a score of 51.2 out 100. South
Africa (49th globally) is the only market in SSA ranking in the top 50 markets globally. On the back of consolidating an Industry
Rewards score of 70.8, Nigeria is ranked second place in our regional rankings. We highlight fifth-placed Ghana, which has an overall
RRI score of 45.7 out of 100. Ghana’s Rewards score has improved by 4.1 points since our previous update, to 51.2 out of 100, and,
while broader economic growth will be strained over 2023, the market offers one of the lowest risk environments in the West Africa
sub-region and wider SSA.
SSA's Attractiveness Affected By Low Risk Scores

SSA - Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index
Note: Scores out of 100, higher score = more attractive market. Source: BMI
Important Note: Our Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index includes two Food & Drink Risk/Reward indices: our Food & Non-Alcoholic
Drinks Risk/Reward Index and our Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index. The first quantifies the risks and rewards associated with food
and non-alcoholic drink sales in each market, while the other quantifies the risks and rewards associated with the alcoholic drinks
sector.
Main Regional Features And Latest Updates
• The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region is the lowest-ranking region in our 2023 Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index
(RRI), with a regional average score of 38.9 out of 100, compared to the global average of 50.0. As a result, SSA ranks sixth place,
behind the five other global regions that we cover.
• South Africa remains the regional leader, ranking first out of 16 markets in the SSA region, with an overall RRI score of 51.4 out of
100. South Africa's relatively low risks and high rewards make it an attractive market for food and non-alcoholic drinks investors
who use the country as a springboard to expand into the wider SSA region. South Africa now ranks 49th globally, on the back of
downturns to the market’s medium term (2023-2027) consumer and food and non-alcoholic drinks spending outlooks, with
continuous power outages (load shedding) providing headwinds to consumers and businesses.
• We highlight fifth-placed Ghana, which has an RRI score of 45.7 out of 100, increasing from 43.4 out of 100 in our previous
update. Ghana stands out, owing to an improving Rewards score; however, a poor economic outlook will continue to weigh on
Ghana’s Risks score. Ghana offers one of the less risky markets in the SSA region, and as the markets’ economic performance
improves, we will see upward revisions in a number of risk pillars, as investor sentiment recovers.
• In 2023, we provide an overview of Nigeria’s food and non-alcoholic drinks segment, who has retained their second-place
ranking in our regional RRI rankings, with the most attractive Industry Rewards scores, and an improving Country Rewards and
Country Risks score. Overall, Nigeria scores 51.2 out of 100, slightly behind South Africa.
Few Markets In SSA Offer Low Risks And High Rewards

SSA - Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index
Note: Scores out of 100, higher score = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions
Economic, Operational And Political Challenges Remain High In SSA
We see SSA’s high level of risks as a key deterrent of widespread investment into the food and non-alcoholic drinks market. While
countries such as Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana will continue to draw investment, we see this largely being attributed to their
relatively more acceptable level of risk for many investors. SSA has an average Risk score of 21.1 out 100, significantly lower than
the score of second-last ranked Latin America, which has a score of 41.9 out of 100. Furthermore, when excluding South Africa, the
regional average score for Risks falls to just 20.7 out of 100. SSA, excluding South Africa, scores 19.0 out of 100 under the Industry
Risks pillar, scoring below the regional average in all three pillars (Regulatory environment, F&D formalisation and Logistics risks).
Another key indicator is our Operational Risk index, where SSA scores 16.1 out 100, and when removing South Africa, the score falls
to 14.0 out of 100. Both high levels of economic and political risk contribute to a Country Risk score of 22.3 out of 100 for the SSA
region (excluding South Africa). Despite the attraction of low formalisation, which allow for investors to gain brand recognition and
preference as consumers in the region move from open-air markets to formal retail, SSA has proven challenging for even well-
established mass grocery retail chains. This is seen by companies such as Shoprite, Woolworths and Choppies, both of which
had major success in their local markets, but have scaled back regional expansion plans over recent years.
SSA's Risk Profile Will Deter Widespread Investment

Global - Industry & Country Risk Scores
South Africa Tops The Region
South Africa continues to have the highest RRI score in the SSA region in our 2023 update, scoring 51.4 out of 100. South Africa
has fallen by three places in the global rankings, to 49th overall since our last update. Despite not having the largest population in
the SSA region, high levels of spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks, as well as a well-developed food sector will continue to
support the market’s attractiveness. Total food and non-alcoholic drinks spending will increase from USD39.4bn in 2023 to
USD49.7bnin 2027.
South Africa's Industry Rewards score of 42.9 is only the ninth highest in the SSA region, behind markets such as Ghana (51.1) and
Tanzania (44.4), and the Regional Average of 44.2 of 100. However, South Africa has the second highest Total Food and Drink
Expenditure score of 70.5 out of 100, behind only Nigeria who scores 90.5 out of 100. South Africa is, also the regional
outperformer in terms of Country Rewards, with a score of 71.0 out of 100. The strong Country Rewards score is supported by the
large population and a consumer base with high disposable incomes by regional standards. We forecast 25.5% of households in
South Africa will have disposable income of more than USD10,000 in 2023, growing to upwards of 34.1% by 2027. Furthermore, the
country still has the highest score for mass affluent class in the region (35.2 out 100, compared to the regional average of 11.8 out
of 100). We believe that South Africa is the main SSA market for opportunities in higher margin and premium food and non-
alcoholic drink product offerings over the coming years.
South Africa Has A Standout Operating Environment In The Region

South Africa & SSA - Industry & Country Risks
South Africa poses one of the lowest risk environments for food and non-alcoholic drinks investors in the SSA region and benefits
from a highly mature regulatory environment and a well-developed logistical framework. This quarter, South Africa scores 45.2 out
of 100 under our Risk pillar, significantly above second-placed Namibia (with a score of 38.1 out of 100). Food and non-alcoholic
drinks investors also stand to benefit from South Africa's highly formalised food and non-alcoholic drinks sector, scoring 42.9 out of
100 under the F&D Formalisation pillar, which ranks only behind Gabon and Botswana, two relatively small markets by land mass
and size of the food and drinks market. As a result, South Africa is regarded by food and drink majors as a springboard for entry and
expansion into the Southern Africa and more broadly, the SSA region.
Nigeria Retains Second Place Ranking
Nigeria has an overall RRI score of 51.2 out of 100 in our 2023 update, a slight decline from their 52.0 score in our previous update.
In 2023, Nigeria has retained its second-place ranking in the SSA region; however, the market has fallen by four places, now ranking
51st globally. Nigeria scores 67.0 out of 100 in our Rewards pillar, the highest in the region, which is aided by an Industry Rewards
score of 70.8 out of 100, and a Country Rewards score of 61.4 out of 100. Nigeria's risk-intensive operating environment remains a
key deterrent for widespread investment in the food and drinks market.
Nigeria offers the most attractive food and non-alcoholic drinks market in the SSA region, with an Industry Rewards score of 70.8
out of 100. This is largely down to the high scores under the Real Household Spending Growth pillar, where Nigeria scores 92.4 out
of 100, and their Total F&D Expenditure pillar score of 90.5. We forecast the average Nigerian household to allocate nearly half of
their disposable income towards food and non-alcoholic drinks over 2023 and over the medium term. In USD terms, we forecast
food and non-alcoholic drinks spending in Nigeria to grow at an average annual rate of 6.8%, taking total spending in the segment
to USD212.7bn by 2027.
Furthermore, with a population of over 220.0mn people in 2023, Nigeria posts strong scores under our Population pillar (scoring
95.2 out of 100), and while only slightly above half of Nigeria’s population is urbanised, due to the country’s large population, Nigeria
scores 95.2 out of 100 under our Urban Population pillar. For food and drink majors, this translates into a substantially large
consumer base to target.
Nigeria Offers Substantial Rewards, Plagued By A High Risk Environment

Nigeria & SSA - Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risks & Rewards
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market. Source: BMI
Nigeria’s low Risk score, has deteriorated by 2.2 points in our 2023 update, down to 14.1 out of 100 (from 16.3 out of 100), and
subsequently scores below the regional average in our Industry and Country Risk pillars. In particular, we highlight Nigeria’s poor
Regulatory Environment (4.8), Logistics Risk (7.6) and Operational Risk Index (9.5) scores as key hindrances to the expansion of local
players, as well as the mass entrance of new, international players into the market. With a F&D Formalisation score of 24.8 out of 100,
below the regional average of 26.3, Nigeria’s mass grocery retail (MGR) market, and generally the food and drink segment remain
underdeveloped relative to the potential Rewards. Finally, we highlight the outcome of the presidential elections in February 2023 as
potential flashpoints for political and social unrest over the short and longer term. Nigeria now scores 23.8 out of 100 under the
Short-Term Economic Risk Index, and 34.3 out of 100 under the Long-Term Economic Risk Index (10.5 points lower than their Q223
score). Collectively, we will see these factors divert investment away from Nigeria over the short term (2023-2025), to less risky
markets in SSA and other developing markets and regions.
Ghana In The Spotlight
In our 2023 update, we place the spotlight on Ghana, which ranks fifth out of the 16 SSA markets, with an overall RRI score of 45.7
out of 100, increasing from 43.4 out of 100 in our previous update. Ghana stands out this quarter, owing to improving Rewards
scores; however, a poor economic outlook will weigh on Ghana’s Risks score.
Ghana scores 51.2 out of 100 under our Rewards pillar, which is above the regional average (46.1), and importantly has improved by
4.1 points since our last update. This improving Rewards score can be attributed to Ghana’s high Real Household Spending Five-
Year Growth pillar score of 77.1 out of 100. Similarly, Ghana’s F&D Expenditure pillar score has risen by 7.6 points between Q223 and
Q323, resulting in the market scoring 50.5 out of 100 in the pillar (this is also above the regional average of 38.5 out of 100). Food
and non-alcoholic drinks spending in Ghana will experience strong growth (in USD terms) over the 2023-2027 period, rising from
USD19.5bn in 2023 to USD28.9bn by 2027, translating into an annual average growth rate of 6.5%. Ghana’s Rewards score is
particularly weighed down by a low F&D Spending Per Capita score of 25.7 out of 100, while a Mass Affluent Class pillar score of 10.5
also weight on the markets’ attractiveness.
Ghana has a relatively strong score under the Regulatory Environment pillar, where the market scores 53.3 out of 100, the highest in
the region. Further, with a F&D Formalisation score of 33.3 out of 100 and Operational Risk Index score of 28.6 out of 100, both
outperform the SSA regional average. As a result, Ghana scores 32.9 out of 100 under our Risks pillar. Ghana therefore provides one
of the less risky markets in the SSA region, and, as the markets’ economic performance improves, we will see upward revisions in a
number of risk pillars as investor sentiment recovers.
Ghana's Rewards Profile Has Improved, While Risks Have Weakened

Ghana & SSA - Country & Industry Risks & Rewards
Due to weakening economic growth over 2023, which will spill over into the medium term, Ghana’s Short- and Long-Term
Economic Risk Index pillars have declined. Ghana now scores 25.2 and 11.4 under the Long- and Short-Term Economic Pillars
respectively, with both scores below the regional average. Further, Ghana scores a moderate 31.0 out of 100 under out Short-Term
Political Risk Index, which is only slightly above the regional average of 30.1 out of 100. Collectively, this results in Ghana scoring
31.7 out of 100 under the Country Risks category.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS RISK/REWARD INDEX

Industry Country Rewards Industry Country Risks RRI Regional Global
Rewards Rewards Risks Risks Rank Rank
South Africa 42.9 71.0 54.1 50.5 40.0 45.2 51.4 1 49
Nigeria 70.8 61.4 67.0 12.4 15.9 14.1 51.2 2 51
Kenya 58.7 58.1 58.5 16.8 26.9 21.9 47.5 3 62
Cote D'Ivoire 61.3 48.3 56.1 25.7 26.0 25.9 47.0 4 65
Ghana 51.1 51.4 51.2 34.0 31.7 32.9 45.7 5 67
Ethiopia 58.4 62.1 59.9 7.6 10.0 8.8 44.6 6 70
Angola 52.7 50.5 51.8 17.1 22.2 19.7 42.2 7 74
Uganda 51.4 52.1 51.7 10.5 21.9 16.2 41.1 8 75
Tanzania 44.4 52.4 47.6 14.3 29.2 21.7 39.9 9 77
Gabon 41.9 26.0 35.5 39.0 28.3 33.7 35.0 10 87
Botswana 34.0 31.7 33.0 23.5 42.0 32.7 33.0 11 92
Cameroon 33.3 48.6 39.4 13.0 17.5 15.3 32.2 12 95
Mozambique 33.7 43.3 37.5 20.6 12.1 16.3 31.2 13 96
Zambia 32.4 44.5 37.2 14.3 17.3 15.8 30.8 14 97
Namibia 30.5 28.8 29.8 29.2 32.8 31.0 30.2 15 98
Sudan 10.2 50.5 26.3 7.3 0.6 4.0 19.6 16 102
Global 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ~ ~

Average
Regional 44.2 48.8 46.1 21.0 23.4 22.2 38.9 ~ ~

Average
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS INDUSTRY REWARDS

F&D Spending Real HH Spend Total F&D Industry Rewards Rewards
Per Capita Five-Year Expenditure
Growth
South Africa 26.7 31.4 70.5 42.9 54.1
Nigeria 29.5 92.4 90.5 70.8 67.0
Kenya 23.8 90.5 61.9 58.7 58.5
Cote D'Ivoire 34.3 96.2 53.3 61.3 56.1
Ghana 25.7 77.1 50.5 51.1 51.2
Ethiopia 12.4 94.3 68.6 58.4 59.9
Angola 31.4 68.6 58.1 52.7 51.8
Uganda 14.3 95.2 44.8 51.4 51.7
Tanzania 11.4 76.2 45.7 44.4 47.6
Gabon 42.9 71.4 11.4 41.9 35.5
Botswana 16.2 79.0 6.7 34.0 33.0
Cameroon 5.7 83.8 10.5 33.3 39.4
Mozambique 6.7 78.1 16.2 33.7 37.5
Zambia 9.5 73.3 14.3 32.4 37.2
Namibia 27.6 54.3 9.5 30.5 29.8
Sudan 7.6 19.0 3.8 10.2 26.3
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 20.4 73.8 38.5 44.2 46.1
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS COUNTRY REWARDS

Population Mass Affluent Urban Spending Country Rewards
Class Population Population Rewards
South Africa 79.0 35.2 81.9 87.6 71.0 54.1
Nigeria 95.2 2.9 95.2 52.4 61.4 67.0
Kenya 77.1 11.4 59.0 84.8 58.1 58.5
Cote D'Ivoire 59.0 13.3 56.2 64.8 48.3 56.1
Ghana 61.9 10.5 63.8 69.5 51.4 51.2
Ethiopia 91.4 3.8 72.4 81.0 62.1 59.9
Angola 66.7 19.0 68.6 47.6 50.5 51.8
Uganda 73.3 6.7 54.3 74.3 52.1 51.7
Tanzania 81.9 4.8 69.5 53.3 52.4 47.6
Gabon 6.7 15.2 11.4 70.5 26.0 35.5
Botswana 9.5 20.0 10.5 86.7 31.7 33.0
Cameroon 58.1 14.3 61.0 61.0 48.6 39.4
Mozambique 62.9 1.9 53.3 55.2 43.3 37.5
Zambia 53.3 7.6 49.5 67.6 44.5 37.2
Namibia 8.6 17.1 6.7 82.9 28.8 29.8
Sudan 72.4 5.7 61.9 61.9 50.5 26.3
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 59.8 11.8 54.7 68.8 48.8 46.1
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS INDUSTRY RISKS

Regulatory F&D Formalisation Logistics Risk Industry Risks Risks
Environment
South Africa 49.5 42.9 59.0 50.5 45.2
Nigeria 4.8 24.8 7.6 12.4 14.1
Kenya 11.4 3.8 35.2 16.8 21.9
Cote D'Ivoire 26.7 21.0 29.5 25.7 25.9
Ghana 53.3 33.3 15.2 34.0 32.9
Ethiopia 2.9 1.0 19.0 7.6 8.8
Angola 0.0 44.8 6.7 17.1 19.7
Uganda 14.3 2.9 14.3 10.5 16.2
Tanzania 12.4 10.5 20.0 14.3 21.7
Gabon 22.9 89.5 4.8 39.0 33.7
Botswana 10.5 50.5 9.5 23.5 32.7
Cameroon 1.9 34.3 2.9 13.0 15.3
Mozambique 37.1 12.4 12.4 20.6 16.3
Zambia 13.3 16.2 13.3 14.3 15.8
Namibia 34.3 25.7 27.6 29.2 31.0
Sudan 8.6 7.6 5.7 7.3 4.0
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS COUNTRY RISKS

Long-Term Short-Term Long-Term Short-Term Operational Country Risks Risks
Economic Economic Political Risk Political Risk Risk Index
Risk Index Risk Index Index Index
South Africa 38.1 31.4 33.3 40.0 48.6 40.0 45.2
Nigeria 34.3 23.8 8.6 9.5 9.5 15.9 14.1
Kenya 36.2 30.0 24.8 21.0 24.8 26.9 21.9
Cote D'Ivoire 41.0 47.6 15.2 20.0 16.2 26.0 25.9
Ghana 25.2 11.4 65.7 31.0 28.6 31.7 32.9
Ethiopia 23.8 13.3 3.8 7.6 5.7 10.0 8.8
Angola 15.2 25.7 21.9 57.1 6.7 22.2 19.7
Uganda 30.5 25.7 27.6 26.7 10.5 21.9 16.2
Tanzania 39.0 22.9 41.0 45.7 13.3 29.2 21.7
Gabon 35.2 41.0 39.0 37.1 8.6 28.3 33.7
Botswana 17.1 53.3 61.0 61.4 29.5 42.0 32.7
Cameroon 33.3 34.8 9.5 18.1 4.8 17.5 15.3
Mozambique 19.0 21.0 11.4 17.1 1.9 12.1 16.3
Zambia 11.4 15.2 16.2 38.1 11.4 17.3 15.8
Namibia 6.7 8.6 53.3 51.9 38.1 32.8 31.0
Sudan 0.0 1.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.0
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 25.4 25.4 27.2 30.1 16.1 23.4 22.2
Please Note: Our Risk/Reward Indices are updated frequently and, as a result, the scores in this section may not match the scores
in the rest of the report.
Sub-Saharan Africa Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index: South Africa

Tops Region, Ghana Ranks Fifth, Spotlight On Zambia
Key View: In the 2023 update of our Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index (RRI), the region ranks last out of
the five regions that we cover, with an overall RRI score of 39.3 out of 100. South Africa remains the top performing market in the
region, placing first out of 16 markets with an RRI score of 58.2 out of 100. We highlight 12th-placed Zambia, which has an overall
RRI score 36.0 out of 100. Zambia’s RRI score is underpinned by a relatively strong Rewards profile, where the country scores 45.3
out of 100, slightly below the SSA regional average; however, a low Risks score weighs on the market. In 2023, we provide insight
into Ghana’s alcoholic drinks segment. Ghana has an RRI score of 42.4 out of 100, placing the market fifth in SSA, and 64th globally.
Risky Environment Weighs On Robust Rewards Scores

SSA - Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index
Main Regional Features And Latest Updates
• The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region places fifth in our Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index (RRI). The region scores 39.2 out of
100 in our 2023 update, behind fourth-placed Latin America (45.4). The SSA region is the most high risk region globally, with an
average Risk score of 21.5 out of 100. Each market in the region underperforms in every one of our Country Risk categories for
economic and political stability compared to the global average (50.0 out of 100). SSA also scores low in our Industry Risks pillars,
with difficulties in transporting goods within and between markets in the region adding to the cost of doing business, and a
generally weak regulatory environment.
• South Africa continues to top the region, placing first out of 16 markets with an RRI score of 58.2 out of 100. In our 2023 update,
South Africa’s Rewards and Risks scores outperform the regional average, making it the most attractive market in SSA.
• We spotlight 12th-placed Zambia, which has an RRI score 36.0 out of 100. Zambia’s RRI score is underpinned by a relatively
strong Rewards score, where the country scores 45.3 out of 100, slightly below the SSA regional average, however a low Risks
score weighs on the market.
• Ghana offers an attractive alcoholic drinks market in West Africa, with an RRI score of 42.4 out of 100, placing the market fifth in
SSA, and 64th globally. A combination of attractive Rewards and a relatively low risk operating environment, will drive this outlook
over the medium term.
Few Markets In SSA Are Low Risk, High Reward

SSA - Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index
Zambia Offers A High Growth Frontier Alcoholic Drinks Market
In the 2023 update of our Alcoholic Drinks RRI, we highlight Zambia, which ranks 12th out of 16 SSA markets and 81st globally, with
an overall RRI score of 36.0 out of 100. Zambia’s score is underpinned by a modest Rewards score of 45.3 out of 100, with both
Industry and Country Rewards scores being close, but slightly under the SSA regional average. Zambia performs well below the
regional average under the Risks pillar, scoring 14.1 out of 100, with only three markets in SSA having lower scores (Nigeria, Ethiopia
and Zimbabwe).
Zambia strongest performing pillar is under Industry Rewards, where the market has a score of 45.4 out of 100. This score is
underpinned by strong growth in both alcoholic drinks spending (scores 93.6 out of 100) and alcoholic drinks consumption (97.9
out of 100) over the medium term (2023-2027). Over the next five years, we forecast total alcoholic drinks spending in Zambia to
grow from USD110mn in 2023, to USD210mn by 2027. This translates into an average annual growth rate of 14.1%. Similarly, total
alcohol consumption will grow from 252.1mn litres in 2023 to 375.9mn litres in 2027, with total consumption posting a five-year
CAGR of 10.4%. These are some of the highest growth rates globally, but are largely coming from a low base. As such, alcoholic
drinks players can take advantage by establishing themselves in the market relatively early, building brand loyalty as the market
grows.
On the Country Rewards side, Zambia scores 45.2 out of 100, with a strong score of 70.2 out of 100 under the Spending Population
pillar. The country’s population of around 18.9mn in 2023, is largely dominated by young people aged between 15 and 39 (which
makes up over 55% of the population). For alcoholic drinks manufacturers and retailers, this will provide an attractive base of
consumer, further compounded by a high level of urbanisation, which is set to grow from 44.6% in 2020, to over 62% by 2050. In
July 2022, Zambian Breweries announced plans to double the capacity of their Mungwi road plant in Lusaka, Zambia through a
USD80mn investment. The expansion will allow for greater innovation within the beer category in Zambia, while reducing the
market’s reliance on imports, and opening up greater export opportunities for the company
Zambia Is Outperformed By The Regional Average

Zambia & SSA Average - Risk & Reward Indicators
Zambia has a Risks score of 14.1 out of 100, which is weak compared to the SSA average of 21.5. On the Industry Risk side, Zambia
scores 10.6 out of 100 under the Regulatory Environment pillar, 11.6 under Logistics Risk and 14.9 under the F&D Formalisation
pillar, giving and overall Industry Risks score of 12.4 out of 100. Zambia has below average scores under the Short- and Long-Term
Economic Risk Index, at 13.8 and 10.6 out of 100, respectively. The only Country Risk pillar where Zambia outperforms the regional
average is under the Short-Term Political Risk Index, scoring 36.2 out of 100 (regional average score is 30.5 out of 100). However,
with an Operational Index score of 9.6 out of 100, Zambia will still remain a challenging alcoholic drinks market to navigate and will
ultimately deter investment to more developed markets, while infrastructural and logistical frameworks improve.
South Africa The Top Performer In SSA
South Africa continues to rank first out of 16 markets in our Alcoholic Drinks RRI for SSA, with an RRI score 58.2 out of 100. In our
2023 update, South Africa’s Rewards score stands at 64.3 out of 100, while the market’s Risks pillar scores 58.2 out of 100, both the
highest in SSA region.
South Africa’s Rewards score of 64.3 out 100 is the highest in the region, ahead of Angola (61.3), and Nigeria, with a score of 57.8. In
terms of Industry Rewards, South Africa scores a high 87.2 out of 100 under our Total Alcohol Consumption pillar. We forecast South
Africa’s alcoholic drinks consumption to total 3.16bn litres in 2023, increasing to 3.46bn litres in 2027. South Africa also has a
strong level of forecasted growth for per capita alcohol consumption. This is due to the well-established level of alcoholic drinks
production, marketing, retail and consumption in the market. As a result, South Africa scores 51.1 out of 100 under our Alcohol
Consumption Per Capita pillar, the highest score in the region. The established level of per capita consumption is attributable to the
range of products which cater to consumer demand. Low cost wine and beer products have successfully penetrated the low to
middle income consumer base, while a large market which caters to high income households through premium spirits and local
and imported wines is also established. Furthermore, South Africa scores 83.0 out of 100 under our Alcoholic Drinks Spending Total
pillar, the highest score in the region and highlights the attractiveness of South Africa, due to its high demand for alcoholic products.
Under the Country Rewards pillar, South Africa boasts a large Mass Affluent Class, scoring 31.9 out 100, compared to the regional
average of 10.9. With 27.2% of households in the country having disposable income of USD10,000-plus in 2023, it makes South
Africa the most attractive market in the SSA region. The high levels of disposable income will support alcoholic drinks spending
growth over the 2023-2027 period, presenting opportunities for the production and sale of alcoholic drink products. We believe
that South Africa’s young-adult population (20-39 years old), which accounts for around one third of the population in 2023, will be
a key demographic for alcoholic drinks spending and consumption over 2023-2027.
South Africa Offers Robust Risk Scores Compared To The Region

South Africa & SSA Average - Industry & Country RIsks
South Africa’s Risks score of 44.1 out of 100 is significantly higher than the regional average of 21.5, however, it is still below the
global average of 50.0. There are pockets where South Africa does perform, mostly relating to its well-developed Regulatory
Environment (45.7) and its Food and Drink Formalisation (43.6). Additionally, South Africa offers a more developed logisitic network
that most markets in SSA, scoring 58.5 out of 100 for our Logistics Risks indicator.
In terms of Country Risks, South Africa is the second-best performer in the region with a score of 39.0 out of 100, slightly behind
Botswana’s score of 40.2. South Africa scores above the regional average for short term and long term economic and political risks,
and scores particularly well on the Operational Risks pillar, scoring 47.9 out of 100 compared to the regional average of 14.9. For
alcoholic manufacturers, this will provide a stable operating environment, especially when compared to other SSA markets.
Ghana Climbs To Fifth
In our 2023 RRI update, we highlight how Ghana now placing fifth in the SSA region and 64th globall, with an overall RRI score of
42.4 out of 100. Ghana is the second highest ranking market in the West And Central African subregion, ranking ahead the likes of
Cote d’Ivoire and Cameroon, and slightly behind Nigeria.
Ghana’s Industry Rewards score of 47.4 out of 100 is slightly above the regional average of 47.0. Ghana outperforms the regional
average under Alcohol Spending Per Capita (40.4 compared to 26.7), Alcohol Spending Five-Year Growth Rate (79.8 compared to
62.6) and Alcohol Spending Total pillars (51.1 compared to 33.7). We forecast total alcoholic drinks spending in Ghana to rise from
USD1.7bn to USD2.7bn over the medium term (2023-2027), translating into an average annual growth rate of 8.3%.
Ghana continues to outperform the regional average in the Country Rewards category, scoring 54.3 out of 100. Ghana has an
attractive Urban Population score, at 63.8 out of 100, as well as a strong score of 72.3 out of 100 under our Urban Population pillar.
With a median age of around 20.5 years, and a population of over 30mn, Ghana still provides a substantial consumer base for
alcoholic drink majors to target. That said, over 2023, Ghana will have around 20.1% of households having disposable incomes
greater than USD5,000, and only around 4.7% with disposable incomes greater than USD10,000. This will significantly weigh on the
premiumisation opportunities for alcoholic drinks manufacturers and retailers.
Ghana Outperforms In Three Of The Four Headline Pillars

Ghana & SSA - Alcoholic Drinks Risks & Rewards
While Ghana outperforms the regional average in terms of Risks, with a score of 30.6 out of 100, the score remains well below the
global average of 50.0, and will ultimately weigh om investment into the country’s alcoholic drinks segment. Ghana scores 31.9 out
of 100 under the Industry Risks pillar, largely owing to a weak Food & Drinks formalisation score of 33.0 out of 100, and a poor
Logistics Risk score of 13.8 out of 100. On the Country Risk side, Ghana scores 29.3 out of 100. We highlight Ghana’s generally weak
economic outlook feeding into a low 9.6 out of 100 under the Short-Term Economic Risk Index pillar, and 23.9 out of 100 under the
Long-Term Economic Risk Index. While Ghana’s Operational Index score of 25.5 out of 100 is above the regional average, it is almost
half of the global average score, and points to a challenging environment for manufacturers have to navigate.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - ALCOHOLIC DRINKS RISK/REWARD INDEX

Industry Country Rewards Industry Country Risks RRI Regional Global
Rewards Rewards Risks Risks Rank Rank
South Africa 59.4 71.5 64.3 49.3 39.0 44.1 58.2 1 32
Angola 67.9 51.3 61.3 16.7 20.7 18.7 48.5 2 50
Nigeria 54.6 62.5 57.8 11.3 13.8 12.6 44.2 3 57
Kenya 47.9 58.5 52.1 15.6 24.7 20.2 42.5 4 62
Ghana 42.9 54.3 47.4 31.9 29.3 30.6 42.4 5 64
Côte D'Ivoire 48.6 48.7 48.6 24.1 24.6 24.4 41.3 6 67
Cameroon 51.1 49.5 50.4 12.4 15.5 14.0 39.5 7 70
Tanzania 39.0 54.0 45.0 12.8 27.7 20.2 37.6 8 73
Ethiopia 41.7 63.3 50.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 37.5 9 74
Gabon 48.4 26.1 39.5 37.9 26.1 32.0 37.2 10 75
Uganda 40.6 52.9 45.5 9.2 20.2 14.7 36.3 11 79
Zambia 45.4 45.2 45.3 12.4 15.8 14.1 36.0 12 81
Namibia 44.7 29.0 38.4 28.0 31.3 29.7 35.8 13 82
Mozambique 41.3 44.9 42.8 18.1 10.3 14.2 34.2 14 84
Botswana 36.3 32.4 34.8 22.3 40.2 31.3 33.7 15 87
Zimbabwe 26.2 38.6 31.2 2.8 1.8 2.3 22.5 16 94
Global 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ~ ~

Average
Regional 46.3 48.0 47.0 20.3 22.7 21.5 39.3 ~ ~

Average
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - ALCOHOLIC DRINKS INDUSTRY REWARDS

Alcohol Alcohol Total Alcohol Alcohol Alcohol Alcohol Industry Rewards
Consumption 5-Year Consumption Spending Per Spending Spending Rewards
Per Capita Growth Capita 5-Year Total
Rate Growth
Rate
South Africa 62.8 41.5 87.2 51.1 30.9 83.0 59.4 64.3
Angola 83.0 97.9 78.7 34.0426 69.1 44.7 67.9 61.3
Nigeria 12.8 88.3 76.6 14.9 70.2 64.9 54.6 57.8
Kenya 14.9 77.7 55.3 24.5 73.4 41.5 47.9 52.1
Ghana 7.4 53.2 25.5 40.4 79.8 51.1 42.9 47.4
Côte D'Ivoire 37.2 100.0 60.6 12.8 59.6 21.3 48.6 48.6
Cameroon 47.9 75.5 68.1 13.8 75.5 25.5 51.1 50.4
Tanzania 10.6 64.9 48.9 18.1 53.2 38.3 39.0 45.0
Ethiopia 13.8 63.8 71.3 0.0 90.4 10.6 41.7 50.3
Gabon 87.2 57.4 19.1 36.2 78.7 11.7 48.4 39.5
Uganda 17.0 85.1 47.9 7.4 61.7 24.5 40.6 45.5
Zambia 21.3 93.6 37.2 6.4 97.9 16.0 45.4 45.3
Namibia 30.9 40.4 4.3 73.4 87.2 31.9 44.7 38.4
Mozambique 19.1 81.9 44.7 4.3 85.1 12.8 41.3 42.8
Botswana 48.9 89.4 10.6 47.9 3.2 18.1 36.3 34.8
Zimbabwe 24.5 51.1 33.0 16.0 12.8 20.2 26.2 31.2
Global 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Average
Regional 35.0 73.2 46.5 26.7 62.6 33.7 46.3 47.0

Average
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - ALCOHOLIC DRINKS COUNTRY REWARDS

Population Mass Urban Spending International International Country Rewards
Affluent Population Population Tourism Tourism Rewards
Class Receipts Receipts Per
Total Visitor
South Africa 79.8 31.9 83.0 91.5 71.5 64.3 71.5 64.3
Angola 67.0 17.0 69.1 52.1 51.3 61.3 51.3 61.3
Nigeria 95.7 2.1 94.7 57.4 62.5 57.8 62.5 57.8
Kenya 77.7 8.5 59.6 88.3 58.5 52.1 58.5 52.1
Ghana 62.8 18.1 63.8 72.3 54.3 47.4 54.3 47.4
Côte D'Ivoire 59.6 10.6 56.4 68.1 48.7 48.6 48.7 48.6
Cameroon 58.5 11.7 61.7 66.0 49.5 50.4 49.5 50.4
Tanzania 83.0 4.3 70.2 58.5 54.0 45.0 54.0 45.0
Ethiopia 92.6 3.2 73.4 84.0 63.3 50.3 63.3 50.3
Gabon 6.4 12.8 11.7 73.4 26.1 39.5 26.1 39.5
Uganda 73.4 5.3 55.3 77.7 52.9 45.5 52.9 45.5
Zambia 54.3 6.4 50.0 70.2 45.2 45.3 45.2 45.3
Namibia 8.5 14.9 6.4 86.2 29.0 38.4 29.0 38.4
Mozambique 63.8 1.1 54.3 60.6 44.9 42.8 44.9 42.8
Botswana 9.6 19.1 10.6 90.4 32.4 34.8 32.4 34.8
Zimbabwe 47.9 0.0 31.9 74.5 38.6 31.2 38.6 31.2
Global 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Average
Regional 56.5 10.9 51.9 72.5 48.0 47.0 48.0 47.0

Average
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - ALCOHOLIC DRINKS INDUSTRY RISKS

Regulatory Food & Drink Logistics Risk Industry Risks Risks
Environment Formalisation
South Africa 45.7 43.6 58.5 49.3 44.1
Angola 0.0 45.7 4.3 16.7 18.7
Nigeria 4.3 24.5 5.3 11.3 12.6
Kenya 8.5 4.3 34.0 15.6 20.2
Ghana 48.9 33.0 13.8 31.9 30.6
Côte D'Ivoire 22.3 20.2 29.8 24.1 24.4
Cameroon 2.1 34.0 1.1 12.4 14.0
Tanzania 9.6 9.6 19.1 12.8 20.2
Ethiopia 3.2 1.1 18.1 7.4 7.5
Gabon 20.2 90.4 3.2 37.9 32.0
Uganda 11.7 3.2 12.8 9.2 14.7
Zambia 10.6 14.9 11.7 12.4 14.1
Namibia 30.9 25.5 27.7 28.0 29.7
Mozambique 31.9 11.7 10.6 18.1 14.2
Botswana 7.4 52.1 7.4 22.3 31.3
Zimbabwe 1.1 7.4 0.0 2.8 2.3
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ALCOHOLIC DRINKS COUNTRY RISKS

Long-Term Short-Term Long-Term Short-Term Operational Country Risks Risks
Economic Economic Political Risk Political Risk Risk Index
Risk Index Risk Index Index Index
South Africa 36.2 31.9 31.9 38.3 47.9 39.0 44.1
Angola 13.8 25.5 19.1 57.4 4.3 20.7 18.7
Nigeria 31.9 23.4 6.4 6.4 7.4 13.8 12.6
Kenya 34.0 30.3 22.3 19.1 21.3 24.7 20.2
Ghana 23.9 9.6 61.7 29.3 25.5 29.3 30.6
Côte D'Ivoire 39.4 46.8 13.8 18.1 14.9 24.6 24.4
Cameroon 30.9 34.6 7.4 16.0 2.1 15.5 14.0
Tanzania 37.2 22.3 38.3 44.7 11.7 27.7 20.2
Ethiopia 22.3 11.7 1.1 4.3 3.2 7.6 7.5
Gabon 33.0 39.4 36.2 35.1 6.4 26.1 32.0
Uganda 28.7 25.5 25.5 24.5 8.5 20.2 14.7
Zambia 10.6 13.8 14.9 36.2 9.6 15.8 14.1
Namibia 5.3 7.4 51.1 51.6 36.2 31.3 29.7
Mozambique 17.0 20.2 9.6 14.9 0.0 10.3 14.2
Botswana 14.9 52.1 58.5 62.2 26.6 40.2 31.3
Zimbabwe 0.0 1.1 4.3 3.2 1.1 1.8 2.3
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 23.8 25.6 26.7 30.5 14.9 22.7 21.5
Please Note: Our Risk/Reward Indices are updated frequently and, as a result, the scores in this section may not match the scores
in the rest of the report.
Market Overview
Food
Ghana's food processing industry is highly fragmented, with few companies counting as major producers with widespread national
reach. Among the multinational contingent, fast-moving consumer goods firms Cadbury, Nestlé and Unilever are well
established with strong brand heritage. However, robust economic growth and rising disposable incomes are likely to lay the
groundwork for more domestic companies to emerge over the coming years.
Recent Developments
• Dairy producer Fan Milk released its FY2022 results in May 2023 and declared a loss for the second year running (standing at
GHS41.6mn), despite revenue growth of 14.7% to GHS536.9mn (up from GHS468.1mn in 2022). Over the course of the year, Fan
Milk had invested GHS11.7mn in projects that included a biomass boiler and uprated information technology and information
systems equipment.
• In March 2023, GB Foods, a leading food manufacturing company and producers of Ghana’s favourite Gino and Pomo range of
products, expanded its production line by commissioning a state-of-the-art tomato canning line in Tema.
• In February 2023, e-commerce platform Jumia announced that it had discontinued its food delivery service in Egypt, Ghana and
Senegal, in an effort to reduce operational costs in Africa.
• In February 2023, Ghana became the eighth market in Africa and fourth in West Africa to launch food-based dietary guidelines
(FBDG). The guidelines will serve as a tool to promote healthy eating through increased access to evidence-informed nutrition
and health information among the public, especially children above five years.
Market Drivers And Trends
Food Processing
Ghana's food processing industry is highly fragmented given that few companies count as major producers with widespread
national reach. Among the multinational contingent, fast-moving consumer goods firms Cadbury, Nestlé and Unilever are well
established with strong brand heritage. There is growing interest from private equity and venture capital investors into agro-
processors in Ghana, due to the large amounts of agricultural products, which are currently leaving the country as raw materials.
Meat And Poultry
The government is looking to support poultry farming through initiatives such as tax incentives and low-interest loans. The Ministry
of Food and Agriculture has announced that it had stepped up the production of maize and soya beans to reduce poultry feed cost.
This is to cushion local farmers to produce poultry at competitive prices. Currently, some 600,000 people are employed in the
poultry industry but there is potential for significantly higher employment if broiler imports are cut. In November 2018, it was
announced that the government is to set up a poultry slaughtering and processing plant at Dormaa in the Brong Ahafo Region, the
hub of the poultry industry in Ghana.
As part of its newly launched Broiler Revitalization Project, Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture will distribute 20mn day-old
chicks to selected poultry farmers nationwide, aiming for self-sufficiency in chicken meat. This is in line with the Rearing for Food
and Jobs (RFJ) Initiative launched in June 2019. The RFJ initiative is to modernise and transform agriculture for food, jobs and foreign
exchange through the rearing of livestock such as poultry, cattle, sheep and goats, among others. The target of this initiative for the
poultry sector is to produce 40,000 metric tonnes of broiler meat on a pilot basis in 2020 and scale up production in subsequent
years.
Dairy
Dairy company Fan Milk is the largest Ghana-based food company with a market capitalisation close to USD100mn. In 2013,
Dubai-based private equity firm The Abraaj Group and dairy giant Danone acquired Fan Milk in a deal thought to be worth around
USD350.0mn. According to Abraaj, this is the largest ever private equity deal involving Africa's fast-moving consumer goods sector
(excluding those in South Africa). The purchase of Fan Milk indicated that Abraaj and Danone hold a positive view on the growth
potential of West Africa's fresh dairy sector. As incomes increase, so does the consumption of fresh dairy. This is helped by
increasing ownership of refrigeration appliances. In 2017, Abraaj and Danone decided to invest an additional USD25mn in Fan Milk
in order to help the company meet the rapidly rising demand.
Bread, Rice And Cereals
In June 2022, Nestlé Ghana unveiled the expansion of its infant cereals plant in Tema, and is expected to cost around GHS175.4mn
(USD23.0mn). The expansion will increase the production capacity by 6,700 tons and will make the Tema Factory, the primary
production and supply hub for infant cereals in Ghana and other countries in Central and West Africa. In May 2022, The Ghanaian
government extended their ban on maize and rice exports, which ran until the end of September 2022. The ban was initially
enacted in September 2021 and was scheduled to end in March 2022, however, due to supply-side shortages of wheat and maize
resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the government decided to extend the ban for a further six months.
Confectionery
Nutrifoods Ghana is currently the leading biscuit manufacturer in Ghana with roughly 30% market share. The company is jointly
owned by Olam International (75%) and Sanyo Foods of Japan (25%). It produces an assorted brand portfolio, which includes
two of the most popular biscuits in the country, the King Cracker and the Perk Shortcake. In January 2017, Nutrifoods Biscuits
became the first biscuit factory in West Africa to be awarded the globally acknowledged Food System Certification
Scheme accreditation. The company greatly expanded its production capacity in 2017 with a USD8.3mn investment in its
production facility in Tema. In August 2018, the first premium oats digestive biscuit, under its new health brand Nutrisnax, was
introduced to the market.
Niche Confectionery, a subsidiary of Niche Cocoa Ghana, has increased its product offering by launching 12 varieties of its Niche
chocolate products in February 2019. The products include extra dark (72% cocoa), dark (56% cocoa), milk (38% cocoa) and nine
milk chocolate flavours.
Niche Cocoa, which is the parent company of Niche Confectionery, is a wholly owned Ghanaian company that was integrated as a
cocoa company in 2011. It engages in cocoa processing and converting locally sourced cocoa beans into semi-finished products
including cocoa liquor, butter, chocolate bars, cake and powder, to serve both the local and international market. Niche
Confectionery was established in 2018 as a standalone company with a focus on chocolates and chocolate-based confectioneries
that are produced in Ghana using local cocoa beans.
In July 2019, the Government of Ghana announced that it was entering into a partnership with China for the construction of a
USD100mn chocolate processing facility at Sefwi-Wiaso in the North Western region of the country. The facility will process around
50,000 tonnes of cocoa beans per year into chocolate, in a move to add value to its cocoa locally before export. It is also expected to
have a positive impact on domestic chocolate consumption. According to Ghana’s Minister of Agriculture Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto,
Ghana will contribute 40% of the investment capital while China will contribute the remaining 60% of the investment capital.
Fruit And Vegetables
It was reported in early-2015 that the government of Ghana was turning to vegetables in an effort to diversify the country's
economy, which is currently heavily dependent on oil, gold and cocoa. The country's vegetable sector reportedly makes about
USD3mn annually, a figure the government expects to grow to USD25mn annually with the right investment in local farms and
crops. As of 2017, Ghana exports USD10.1mn worth of vegetable products. The government also plans to focus more on the
agriculture sector, which accounts for 20% of the country's GDP and employs about 60% of the workforce. As of January 1 2018,
Ghanaian farmers can export all plant commodities to the EU market. This came after the EU decided to lift the ban on the export of
five plant commodities from Ghana to the EU market, which was put in place on October 31 2017.
Cocoa Processing
Ghana is the second largest producer of cocoa in the world. The cash crop accounts for about 9% of Ghana’s GDP and makes up
about one-third of the country’s export revenues, totalling over USD1.5bn. Ghana wants to domestically process at least half of its
cocoa produce, enabling it to become a major producer of fine flavour cocoa beans. The country will aim to achieve this through a
USD600mn loan facility from the African Development Bank. Key components under the facility include rehabilitation of moribund
cocoa farms, irrigation projects, warehousing, consumption promotion, and processing, as well as value addition to the cocoa
beans. Currently, the total installed capacity for processing cocoa is a little above 400,000 metric tonnes, giving the indication that
the country is on the right path to achieving its medium-term policy goal of processing 50% of its cocoa before export. There are
five large processing companies operating in the country, all at various levels of processing. These are the Cocoa Processing
Company, Barry Callebaut, Afrotropics, Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland (acquired by Olam International).
In a bid to regulate global cocoa production levels and increase returns to local producers, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire have agreed to
harmonise cocoa prices and other marketing and industry activities. On October 1 2018, the two cocoa regulatory bodies, Cocobod
of Ghana and the Conseil du Café-Cacao of Côte d'Ivoire, began simultaneously setting farm-gate prices. This followed the price
slumps of 2016 and 2017, which significantly impacted the countries’ respective economies and drastically reduced farmer
incomes. Local producers have become increasingly vulnerable to international price volatility, and the two countries are therefore
seeking to protect their domestic cocoa industries. Ghana’s 2021/2022 cocoa crop season is expected to open in October 2021
and many farmers are expecting an increase in farm gate prices. According to reports, cocoa farmers in the Western North region of
Ghana are demanding a 25% increase in farm gate prices for the 2021/2022 crop season.
In November 2019, Cargill announced its plans to invest USD13mn to expand its cocoa processing facility in Tema, Ghana, as it
seeks to increase its production capacity by 20%. The company will also invest an additional USD3.4mn over the next three years,
which will be geared towards sustainability initiatives and supply chain traceability. Cargill’s sustainability and traceability initiatives in
Ghana are intended to increase the safety and wellbeing of children and families in cocoa producing areas, while also increasing the
traceability of its cocoa supply chain for both customers and consumers. The company has already achieved 100% traceability in its
Ghana supply chain starting from farm to factory through the use of high-end technologies such as GPS polygon mapping. Cargill
will continue to invest in these new technologies for new farms that have recently joined its Cargill Cocoa Promise program and are
delivering cocoa through its licensed buying company.
In 2015, Switzerland-based chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut bought Nyonkopa Cocoa Buying Company in
Ghana. Nyonkopa will be incorporated into the Biolands Group, Barry Callebaut's direct sourcing arm. Nyonkopa is a licensed
buyer of cocoa from farmers and is authorised to market the product to the Cocoa Marketing Company. Nyonkopa Cocoa was
set up in 2012 and began operation in 2013/14. The company has about 100 employees with 600 purchasing clerks and buys
cocoa from more than 10,000 cocoa farmers across 34 districts in the main cocoa growing regions of Ghana.
Food Services
Ghana's food services sector is dominated by small local food stands or low-key restaurants serving traditional dishes, such as
waakye or kenkey. Despite being at the early stages of development, the formal food services sector has seen rapid growth in
recent years. Sustained economic expansion and rising household incomes gave rise to the country's middle class, which has
increasingly sophisticated tastes and diversified diets - including the adoption of Western-style foods. The presence of international
restaurant chains offering Western-style foods remains limited. KFC is one of the few exceptions, operating in the country under a
franchise agreement with the Mohinani Group since 2011. Hoping to benefit from the surging middle class, South Africa-based,
fast-food franchise King Pie entered Ghana in 2015. As many international fast-food companies remain absent in Ghana, local
restaurant brands, such as Star-Bites and Papaye, offer local interpretations of Western fast food. Papaye, in particular, is
expanding rapidly and now has seven outlets. Catering to a large expat population and considerable tourist numbers are high-end
restaurants, such as Bistro 22 and Santoku. The rapid proliferation of modern shopping centres will further boost the
development of innovative food offerings, especially in urban areas.
Jumia Food Ghana is the largest on-demand food delivery service in Ghana and in June 2022, celebrated 10 years of operation in
Ghana. Formerly Hellofood, Jumia Food has over 170 restaurants across Ghana on their app. Users have the option of paying with
cash or mobile money and the request is delivered by riders at the selected location. In 2020, Jumia noted 64% of purchases were
made through their app while 36% where through the mobile site. Other food delivery services such as Glovo and Bolt Food are
also popular alternatives to Jumia.
Drink
Ghana's drinks market offers substantial scale for growth. In the alcoholic drinks segment, strong growth in incomes is seeing many
consumers shift into the formal market, while in the non-alcoholic drinks segment, new product innovation is leading to greater
demand for carbonated and non-alcoholic drinks.
Recent Developments
• Guinness Ghana Breweries (GGB) issued a statement on May 10 2023, in response to Ghana Water Company (GWC) stating
that it had shut off the water supply to GGB’s plant in Achimota, Accra. GWC said that it had taken the action in response to
substantial unpaid bills. GGB said that the action taken by GWC was not in accordance with an agreement reached between the
two companies. Furthermore, GGB said that GWC’s action had not affected operations at the plant.
• In its Q123 trading statement, released on May 4 2023, AB InBev (Accra Brewery's owner) reported that total revenue had
increased organically by 13.2% y-o-y to reach USD14.2bn, although volumes had grown by just 0.9%. It went on to state that
revenue in its African markets (excluding South Africa and Nigeria (where the company’s top-line had fallen)) had grown by high-
single digits, driven by growth in Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda.
• Niche Cocoa and France-based packaging solutions company Sidel announced in April 2023 the opening of a 16,000 bottles
per hour aseptic PET bottling line in Ghana. The new facility was developed for the production of Niche Confectionery Ghana’s
ready-to-drink dairy based chocolate products.
• On March 31 2023, the Ghanaian parliament approved the Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2023, which among other things
introduces a new excise duty of 20% on all sugar sweetened beverages. The measure also increases existing rates of duty on
wine, malt drinks and spirits, while taking the duty payable on mineral water from 17.5% to 20%.
Alcoholic Drinks
Underlined by the fact that per capita annual beer consumption is only estimated at about 10.5 litres as of 2022, the illicit industry
retains a highly prominent role in Ghana with consumption of homebrews particularly strong. In terms of development, the
Ghanaian beer industry appears to be following a fairly typical course. Per capita consumption is poised to grow strongly.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev), in particular, is expected to pursue more low-cost growth over the next few years, a strategy it
currently employs in the East Africa region. We believe that there is strong potential for low-cost beer. Low per capita beer sales
imply that the consumption of homebrews remains high; therefore, we view low-cost beer as a potential substitute for illicit
consumption over the coming years.
Key alcoholic drinks players, such as Diageo-owned Guinness Ghana Breweries and AB InBev-owned Accra Brewery, are likely
to increase spending in Ghana, particularly on capacity expansion and marketing/advertising. While premiumisation is very
important across the continent for beer companies, there is still a lot of growth to be realised through consumers transitioning from
informal to branded beer. It is here that the improving economy will help the most, even if inflation does remain in the double-digit
territory. Bringing down the rate of inflation would provide further momentum in the beer sector, as well as other food and drink
categories.
Upside risks to our forecasts, particularly for volume growth, include the degree to which brewers invest in low-cost beer. This type
of investment in the West Africa region has so far lagged behind that of East Africa, where AB InBev (through the acquisition of
SABMiller) is pioneering low-cost beer. Multinationals operating in West Africa have largely focused their attention on the premium
end of the market which to some extent explains the continued strength of the informal brewing industry.
Low-cost cassava beer will present strong opportunities for commercial beer consumption over the medium-to-long term. We
believe that over our 2020-2026 forecast period, low-cost cassava beer will boost per capita consumption of beer in Ghana. In
December 2018, Guinness Ghana Breweries announced its plans to increase its local raw materials sourcing from 50% in 2018 to
70% in 2022. According to the company, sourcing local raw materials has resulted in a significant boost to its net revenue.
Soft Drinks
Led by carbonates and bottled water, the soft drinks industry is poised to grow strongly over the next few years. The carbonates
segment, which performs strongly across much of Africa, is currently led by The Coca-Cola Bottling Company Ghana. We
estimate its market share to be an overwhelming 95%, which places it well ahead of PepsiCo's franchise bottler SBC Beverages
Ghana that has a market share of about 5%. In 2014, The Coca-Cola Company revealed plans to invest USD5bn in Africa over the
next five years as it targets the continent's growing middle classes who spend more money on high-end soft drinks and juices. This
was followed in 2017 by the completion of the acquisition of AB InBev's 54.5% equity stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa for
USD3.15bn, which was agreed as part of AB InBev's acquisition of SABMiller. Coca-Cola plans to hold on to the business (which has a
presence in Ghana, South Africa, Namibia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Mayotte, and Comoros) until a suitable
franchisee can be found.
The bottled water industry is also attracting strong investment and is currently led by Voltic Ghana, a subsidiary of AB InBev. There
is room for strong growth in both the bottled water and soft drinks sector, and distribution and marketing investment will continue
to play a pivotal role in this process.
Fruit And Vegetable Juices
Astek, which is a fruit juice processing company in the southern part of Ghana, will resume its operations in April 2020, following
the closure of its facility in 2009 due to financial challenges. Astek’s operations have been revived through the assistance of the
Government of Ghana under its Stimulus Package Programme, which falls under the One District One Factory (1D1F) initiative. The
company secured a loan of GHS5.44mn (USD0.98mn) from Export-Import Bank. The loan consists of capital expenditure of
GHS2.64mn (USD0.47mn) and working capital of GHS2.81mn (USD0.5mn). Astek is currently waiting for the arrival of pineapple
processing equipment which can process around 600 metric tonnes of pineapple per year when operations begin. The facility is
expected to result in the creation of at least 60 direct jobs and 200 indirect jobs.
Hot Drinks
Ghana has a long tradition of coffee growing; however, over the years cocoa has emerged as the key agricultural commodity. Coffee
exports continue to contribute to the country's trade balance, but remain below optimum. The government, through the Ghana
Cocoa Board, has been investing in coffee research with a view to developing the coffee industry.
Tea and coffee are relatively widely consumed in Ghana, although per capita levels remain significantly below those in more
developed markets. Per capita consumption of tea is still markedly below 1kg per annum. Long-term development of organised
retail and higher involvement of multinationals, such as Unilever, is expected to boost volumes. In April 2013, the company
established Ghana's first tea production facility at a cost of GHS7.5mn (USD3.8mn). The facility is expected to produce 1,000 tonnes
of Lipton-branded tea each year. Tea will be exported to seven markets, including Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso and
Niger.
Mass Grocery Retail

Ghana's MGR segment has attracted significant overseas investment, and South Africa-based Shoprite is one of the fastest-
growing foreign retailers operating in the country. While average income levels remain low, the rapidly emerging middle class bodes
well for formal MGR in the country.
Recent Developments
• In May 2022, Melcom extended its partnership with insurance company, Hollard, aimed at helping Ghanaians conveniently use
digital means to access insurance instruments on their purchases and lives.
• Nigeria-based TradeDepot, a B2B e-commerce platform, announced in February 2022, the acquisition of Accra-based Green
Lion. The partnership highlights the growing demand for e-commerce both by retailers and consumers in Ghana.
Major Players
Ghana's MGR segment has attracted significant overseas investment in the past few years. South Africa-based Shoprite is one of the
fastest-growing foreign retailers operating in the country. Shoprite currently operates seven stores in Ghana, five of which are in the
capital and have been present since 2003. With the contribution of organised retail to overall grocery sales estimated at less than
2%, the market is overwhelmingly informal with independent stores and traditional markets dominating the landscape. The
organised retail market largely caters to the expatriate community through one local chain, Shop and Save, which has four stores
in the Accra region. Shop and Save is focused primarily on the local market and locally sourced goods.
Foreign investor interest in the MGR segment in Ghana and throughout the region is growing. In May 2013, France-based
retailer Carrefour formed a joint venture (JV) with consumer goods distributor CFAO to develop stores under the Carrefour banner
in West and Central Africa, including Ghana, Senegal, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Cameroon, Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire. In early-2014, the European Commission gave the green light for the
creation of the Carrefour/CFAO JV.
International chain SPAR entered the market in August 2020. The chain is adding 17 existing supermarkets to the SPAR brand in
and around Accra and it will offer local goods and SPAR brand products. Economic Distribution Company Ghana is the licensee of
the SPAR brand in Ghana.
We hold a positive view on the growth of Ghana's MGR sector over our forecast period owing to its underdeveloped nature and large
scope for long-term growth opportunities. We believe Ghana's consumer outlook through to 2027 will attract positive investment
from foreign retailers. Rising disposable incomes will drive consumer spending and boost the demand for formalisation as
consumer preferences evolve.
We expect retail space development to experience an upward trend over the coming quarters with significant expansion already
under way. Our view is underpinned by the opening of six new shopping malls in the past four years with others in development. We
believe that there will be surging demand for organised retail in the Ghanaian market on the back of a growing population and
increasing urbanisation. We forecast that Ghana's total population will increase from around 32.2mn in 2020 to 35.4mn by 2025. Of
that, 60.5% will be living in urban areas by the end of the forecast period.
We caution that premium retailing in Ghana will be a much slower trend development on the back of high spending on essentials as
a key growth driver. This is a result of the fact that around 68% of the consumer base will have disposable incomes that are below
USD5,000 by 2027. Low disposable incomes will mean that spending on essentials, such as food and non-alcoholic drinks, will make
up a substantial part of household spending through to 2027.
Competitive Landscape
KEY PLAYERS IN GHANA'S FOOD AND DRINK SECTOR
Company Country Of Origin Ownership Subsector
Guinness Ghana Breweries Ghana Parent company: Diageo Beverages - beer
Coca-Cola Ghana Ghana Parent company: The Coca-Cola Company Beverages - soft drinks
Fan Milk Ghana Parent companies: Danone and the Abraaj Group Food - dairy
Accra Brewery Ghana Parent company: InBev Beverages - beer and soft drinks
SBC Beverages Ghana Israel Parent company: PepsiCo Beverages - soft drinks
Unilever Ghana UK Parent company: Unilever Food and beverages
Cadbury Ghana UK Parent company: Mondelez International Food and beverages - confectionery
Nestlé Ghana Switzerland Parent company: Nestlé Food and beverages
Voltic Ghana Ghana Parent company: The Coca-Cola Company Beverages - bottled water
Pernod-Ricard Ghana France Parent company: Pernod-Ricard International Beverages - distilled
Source: Company information, trade press, BMI
Company Profile
Accra Brewery
• Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) has significant investment • Annual sales of less than USD25mn in Ghana suggest that
power and is very well versed in African beer. Accra Brewery has a long way to go to realise its potential.
• Accra Brewery is well placed as Ghana's second largest beer • The company has to compete with the low-cost informal sector.
company by annual sales and market share.
• Accra Brewery's brands are recognised locally.
• Voltic Ghana leads the country's bottled water sector.
• Over the past decade, Accra Brewery has increased the use of
locally sourced inputs. Almost 50% of agricultural inputs are
sourced locally.
• With per capita beer consumption low, and the informal beer • Gaining market share on Guinness Ghana Breweries will not be
industry strong, Accra Brewery is likely to invest significantly in easy, as its multinational backers also see Ghana as an
low-cost beer as it looks to make formal beer more mainstream. increasingly important growth market.
• It is well placed to target the lower end of the market with its • Any increase in excise duties levied on beer would likely affect
Chibuku and Eagle economy beer brands. the beer industry.
• Rising incomes and gradually developing MGR networks will • Restrictions on alcohol sales through closure of hotels and
support volume sales. restaurants and drop in international tourism due to the
• Accra Brewery is investing in the country in order to expand Covid-19 pandemic.
capacity and introduce new brands.
• As part of the larger AB InBev empire, Accra Brewery will have
the chance to grow further.
Company Overview
Accra Brewery (ABL) is a subsidiary of SABMiller (now part of Anheuser-Busch InBev), the world's biggest beer company. It was
established in 1931 and acquired by SABMiller in 1997. Accra Brewery has around 15 products on the market and estimates that it
holds a 48% share of the local beer sector. In October 2016, ABL became a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev after the latter
acquired controlling shares of ABL's former parent company: SABMiller. ABL’s portfolio of products includes Stone Strong Lager,
Castle Milk Stout, Club Beer, Castle Beer, Club Shandy, Club Dark, Club Mini, Escape and Vitalmalt, among others.
Strategy
Considering ABL's current distant second-place position, significant investment in low-cost beer and plant capacity growth is
expected over the coming years. Ghana's standing as one of the region's most exciting economies and the fact that SABMiller is
second to Diageo means Ghana is an important market for future investments.
ABL has begun a series of training sessions, dubbed the Retailer Development Programme, aimed at equipping small retailers with
relevant business skills to enable them to increase their sales and revenues.
The Chibuku brand is focused on the economy end of the market and is generally sold in paper cartons, which have to be shaken
before drinking. The full roll out of the brand follows testing in the market and suggests strong demand for low-priced beers in the
country.
In 2017, ABL introduced a non-alcoholic malt beverage, Beta Malt, thereby expanding its presence in the non-alcoholic drinks
sector.
Recent Developments
2023
In its Q123 trading statement, released on May 4, AB InBev (Accra Brewery's owner) reported that total revenue had increased
organically by 13.2% y-o-y to reach USD14.2bn, although volumes had grown by just 0.9%. It went on to state that revenue in its
African markets (excluding South Africa and Nigeria (where the company’s top-line had fallen)) had grown by high-single digits,
driven by growth in Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda.
2022
In November the company introduced Corona Beer into the Ghanaian market.
In May, ABL launched a new ‘TASTE NO Y3 DEEP’ campaign aimed at strengthening the brand image of their locally produced Club
Premium Lager. The campaign has also been expanded to ABL partnering with GHOne to air a primetime television show which
highlights Ghana's culinary, cultural and music societies.
2021
in November 2021, ABL launched Budweiser to the Ghanaian market. ABL also celebrated their 90th year of operations however,
celebrations were largely limited due to ongoing Covid-19 restrictions,
2020
In February, ABL partnered with Environment 360 (E360) and Miniplast to launch its Beta Malt PET plastic recycling initiative. With
this partnership, E360’s waste pickers will collect ABL’s Beta Malt plastic waste bottles and deliver them to the collection station
where they will be weighed and the quantity will be recorded. Miniplast will then transport the empty bottles to its manufacturing
plant for recycling. The waste pickers will be paid for the bottles presented.
2019
In February, ABL appointed a new legal director, Shaun Raposo (who replaced Philip Redman).
2018
In November, ABL was accused by the Ghana Revenue Authority of contravening the tax stamp policy, after the
company transferred the tax stamps for current production to its distributors to affix them on old stock.
Financial Data
Financial year ending December 31
Group Total Revenue
• 2021: EUR47.6bn
• 2020: EUR45.9bn
• 2019: EUR46.8bn
• 2018: EUR45.0bn
• 2017: EUR50.0bn
• 2016: EUR41.1bn
• 2015: EUR39.3bn
Group Net Profits
• 2021: EUR5.0bn
• 2020: EUR4.5bn
• 2019: EUR7.8bn
• 2018: EUR3.3bn
• 2017: EUR7.1bn
• 2016: EUR1.1n
• 2015: EUR7.5bn
Fan Milk
• Fan Milk is Ghana's leading dairy producer and the company • Fan Milk will have to invest significantly to scale up its business
sells around 1.8mn products a day in West Africa. over the next few years.
• Fan Milk enjoys strong brand heritage. • The company needs to increase prices on the back of higher
• The company has an expanding distribution and exports raw materials and production costs.
network and a well-developed structure for processing its dairy • Fan Milk will need to invest in marketing and advertising with
and getting it to the market. new product launches.
• The onset of domestic oil production is expected to lead to • Rising energy prices and increased prices for agricultural
significant strengthening of disposable incomes, which should commodities could pose challenges for the company.
provide strong upside to the dairy industry. • Growing multinational investment in Ghana will make the
• Long-term income growth will allow Fan Milk to further market more competitive.
augment its product portfolio and target higher-margin growth. • Adverse exchange rate movements can affect earnings.
• The company could aim for greater export sales. From a • Ghana may not manage its oil proceeds as well as currently
position of dominance in Ghana, Fan Milk is present in six expected in terms of disposable income growth, which could
markets, including Côte d'Ivoire. limit upside for the company.
• Milk and fruit-based products are viewed as healthy and, • Electricity outages are threatening further investment in Ghana
therefore, have strong consumer appeal. by Fan Milk.
Company Overview
Fan Milk was established in 1960 and has emerged as one of Ghana's leading food and drink companies. Fan Milk was the first
foreign-invested company in Ghana to become a public limited liability in 1967 and among the first companies to be listed on
the Ghana Stock Exchange in 1991. Fan Milk specialises in manufacturing and marketing dairy products (primarily yoghurts and ice
creams) and fruit juices. The group's products are sold under the Fanice, Fanyogo, Fangold, Fanchoco and Fanpop brands. Fan Milk's
products are distributed through a network of around 12,000 kiosks, pushcarts and bicycles. In 2013, Fan Milk was acquired by
Dubai-based private equity firm The Abraaj Group and dairy giant Danone. Danone acquired 100% of shares in Fan Milk in July 2019.
Strategy
Fan Milk's core purpose is to provide satisfaction and value to society, with a vision of becoming one of the leading food companies
in West Africa. The company aims to produce high quality, nutritious and refreshing products for its customers.
Recent Developments
2023
Fan Milk released its FY22 results in May, showing revenue growth of 14.7% to GHS536.9mn (up from GHS468.1mn in 2022).
However, the company declared a loss for the second year running, with losses standing at GHS41.6mn. Over the course of the year,
Fan Milk had invested GHS11.7mn in projects that included a biomass boiler and uprated information technology and information
systems equipment.
2022
In January, Fan Milk launched their FanIce Freedom Tub, celebrating Ghana’s independence. On a group level, Fan milk have
reinvested GHS47.0mn in improving their industrial, supply chain, sales and administration and information system support.
2021
In June, Fan Milk announced the new opening of their office in the North Industrial Area in Accra.
2020
In November, Fan Milk launched a new premium ice cream brand in Ghana called Go Slo. The initial launch included four flavours
and which were available in supermarkets across Ghana from November 23 2020.
In April, Fan Milk donated 15,600 bottles of drinking yoghurt (FanMaxx) to the Ridge Hospital and the Noguchi Medical Research
Institute to support efforts in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic.
2019
In October, Fan Milk increased the price of Fanyogo and FanIce. The price for Fanyogo (from GHS1.00 to GHS1.20p) and FanIce
(GHS5.00 for Fan Ice 250ML). The price increase came at the time the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission announced a 5.94%
increase to the electricity tariff and a 2.2% increase to the water tariff.
In October, Fan Milk released a new product: Cocopine.
2018
In August, Fan Milk opened a plastic sorting centre in Tema Newtown.
Financial Data
Financial year ending December 31
Total Revenue
• 2022: GHS536.9mn
• 2021: GHS468.1mn
• 2020: GHS373.6mn
• 2019: GHS424.5mn
• 2018: GHS389.5mn
• 2017: GHS446.0mn
• 2016: GHS386.4mn
• 2015: GHS315.4mn
Net Profits
• 2022: (GHS41.6mn)
• 2021: (GHS13.4mn)
• 2020: GHS2.4mn
• 2019: GHS25.0mn
• 2018 GHS12.9mn
• 2017: GHS47.3mn
• 2016: GHS66.1mn
• 2015: GHS49.7mn
Guinness Ghana Breweries

• Guinness Ghana Breweries is the market leader in the beer • With a focus on the mid-premium tier of the market, Guinness
sector. Ghana Breweries lacks exposure to the underdeveloped low-
• With the Guinness brand very well established, the company cost segment.
enjoys strong brand heritage. • The company has to compete with the low-cost informal sector.
• The company is able to call on strong financial backing from • The underdeveloped MGR networks hamper customer reach.
two major multinationals, Diageo and Heineken.
• With per capita consumption still low, beer sales are expected • Any increase in excise duties levied on beer would affect the
to grow considerably over the next few years, with Guinness beer industry.
Ghana poised to be the main benefactor. • Adverse exchange rate movements can affect earnings.
• Diageo sees Africa as strategically important which will benefit • Growing multinational investment interest in Ghana will make
Guinness Ghana Breweries, particularly when it comes to capital the market more competitive.
expenditure. • Competitors are planning increased investment in the country
• The expansion of its portfolio, tailored to and benefiting the in order to capitalise on exciting growth prospects in the region.
local market, will increase customer loyalty.
• Ruut Extra beer is made from locally sourced cassava and is
priced at the lower end of the market, making it more
affordable for a wider audience.
• Guinness Ghana Breweries is keen to expand local raw material
sourcing and so contribute to the country's agricultural sector.
• The company aims to push spirits consumption in Africa.
Company Overview
Guinness Ghana was formed in 2005 when Diageo and Heineken amalgamated their Ghanaian businesses (Guinness Ghana and
Ghana Breweries). Diageo-owned Guinness is the majority shareholder, having increased its stake to more than 72% in
late-2015. Guinness Ghana Breweries is Ghana’s only total beverage business listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange.
Strategy
Guinness Ghana Breweries will look to capitalise on strong economic growth momentum to increase beer sales with investment in
low-cost beer and capacity expansions expected. The brewer is also investing in the expansion of its portfolio. Ruut Extra is made
from locally grown cassava (which is taxed at a lower rate than beers made with imported raw ingredients) and tailored specifically
to the local market.
For more than a decade, Guinness Ghana Breweries has been investing in local raw material sourcing by partnering with local
suppliers and farmers, as well as with the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, and non-governmental organisations in order to develop
sustainable raw material supplies and increase farmer productivity.
In 2016, in an attempt to attract consumers in the non-alcoholic beverages market, Guinness Ghana Breweries launched Orijin Zero,
a non-alcoholic carbonated soft drink.
Recent Developments
2023
Guinness Ghana Breweries (GGB) issued a statement on May 10, in response to Ghana Water Company (GWC) stating that it had
shut off the water supply to GGB’s plant in Achimota, Accra. GWC said that it had taken the action in response to substantial unpaid
bills. GGB said that the action taken by GWC was not in accordance with an agreement reached between the two companies.
Furthermore, GGB said that GWC’s action had not affected operations at the plant.
2022
In April, GGB relaunched their Star Beer with new yellow and blue branding. In Diageo's 2022 annual report, the company noted
Africa's regional net sales grew 14%, led by strong growth in Ghana. Double-digit growth in beer, particularly Malta Guinness, was
driven by the recovery of the on-trade channel and price increases.
2021
In August, Guinness Ghana Brewery launched a new Smirnoff Chocolate flavoured vodka. In June the company also launched a
Baileys variant called Baileys Delight.
2020
In September, Guinness Ghana Brewery announced the launch of the Rise Up campaign and a GHS10mn support package which
enabled bars across the country to reopen in accordance with Covid-19 health and safety restrictions.
2019
In November, Guinness Ghana Brewery announced that it was looking to source up to 70% of its raw materials locally, to support
wealth and job creation for farmers. Currently, the company sources 55% of its raw materials, which includes maize, sorghum, and
cassava from some 30,000 local farmers across the country under the company's local raw material program.
In August, Guinness Ghana Brewery introduced a new product: Guinness Smooth Stout. The product is 70% Ghanaian-sourced
materials, with a blend of hops and roasted barley.
In February, Guinness Ghana Breweries appointed a new legal director: Suzannè Butah.
In January, Guinness Ghana changed its name to Guinness Ghana Breweries.
Financial Data
Financial year ending June 30
Total Revenue
• 2022: GHS1.3bn
• 2021: GHS1.1bn
• 2020: GHS732.6mn
• 2019: GHS685.0mn
• 2018: GHS623.0mn
• 2017: GHS587.4mn
• 2016: GHS566.3mn
• 2015: GHS437.3mn
Gross Profits
• 2022: GHS253.8mn
• 2021: GHS317.6mn
• 2020: GHS187.8mn
• 2019: GHS174.0mn
• 2018: GHS158.3mn
• 2017: GHS150.3mn
• 2016: GHS176.8mn
• 2015: GHS103.2mn
Shoprite
• Shoprite is Africa's largest mass grocery retailer by annual sales; • Shoprite operates only a few stores.
it is therefore able to take advantage of this supply chain and • The company will need to invest in many new stores in the
create synergies. future to generate strong scale in Ghana, especially as the
• With operations in a number of African countries, Shoprite has demand for organised retail is expected to grow strongly over
plenty of experience in operating in different business the next few years.
environments.
• Shoprite benefits from a first-mover advantage.
• The demand for organised retail is likely to grow considerably • Ghana's food and drink industry is underdeveloped and most of
over the coming years as disposable incomes grow. the population cannot afford to shop at organised outlets.
• In terms of potential investor expansion, Shoprite would be an • There is growing regional competition from Pick n Pay and
obvious choice to drive growth considering its existing possibly Massmart, as Walmart comes to Africa.
presence and impressive experience across a number of
countries, including Nigeria and Malawi.
Company Overview
Shoprite is Africa's largest mass grocery retailer in terms of annual sales. Headquartered in South Africa, Shoprite is a public holdings
company listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange with secondary listings on both the Namibian and Zambian stock exchanges.
Shoprite entered Ghana in 2003. The company currently operates 7 Shoprite stores and employs roughly 600 people.
Strategy
Shoprite primarily targets the low-middle end of the market. The company is planning to expand its presence in South Africa's low-
income townships as its competition base shifts away from traditional urban centres. The retailer has developed a first-class,
centralised distribution network over the past few years and has done particularly well. Shoprite's ability to sell food at competitive
prices, with a particular focus on the low end of the market, has allowed it to perform strongly despite a sometimes challenging
trading environment.
Having had a few years to come to terms with the Ghanaian market, Shoprite is expected to launch more stores over the next few
years as the demand for organised retail grows. Organised retail is currently spread thinly across the country; however, with incomes
expected to rise, there is vast room for growth. Retailers that invest in Ghana are in pole position to lead the formalisation of Sub-
Saharan African retail from a very low base.
Recent Developments
2021
In February, the Ghanaian Food and Drugs Authority (FDA) fined Shoprite for selling imported frozen chicken which they had
supposedly been labelling as locally produced.
2020
Shoprite announced a 3.1% decline in sales in all its Africa operations, including Ghana, over 2019. According to the firm, the
performance on currency devaluations in the African markets it operates contributed to the decline. The Ghana cedi depreciated by
12.9% against the dollar on a y-o-y basis.
Financial Data
Financial year ending June 30
Total Revenue (Group)
• 2022: ZAR187.7bn
• 2021: ZAR168.0bn
• 2020: ZAR155.4bn
• 2019: ZAR150.4bn
• 2018: ZAR145.1bn
• 2017: ZAR141.0bn
• 2016: ZAR130.0bn
Net Profits (Group)
• 2022: ZAR5.7bn
• 2021: ZAR4.9bn
• 2020: ZAR4.3bn
• 2019: ZAR3.5bn
• 2018: ZAR5.2bn
• 2017: ZAR5.4bn
• 2016: ZAR4.8bn
Ghana Demographic Outlook

Demographic analysis is a key pillar of our macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. The total population and demographic
profile of a market are key variables in consumer demand and are essential to understanding issues ranging from future population
trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements.
The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2022, the change in the structure of the population between 2022 and
2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050. The tables show indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key
metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split and life expectancy.
Population
Ghana – Population, mn (1990-2050)
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Population Pyramid
Ghana – 2022 Male vs Female Population, ‘000 (LHC) & 2022 vs 2050 Population, ‘000 (RHC)
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (GHANA 1990-2025)

Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, total, '000 15,447.0 19,665.5 22,497.0 25,574.7 28,870.9 32,180.4 35,439.8
Population, % y-o-y 2.55 2.70 2.50 2.39 2.09 1.90
Population, total, male, '000 143.9 186.9 183.3 205.6 288.6 395.8 461.3
Population, total, female, '000 7,795.1 9,905.8 11,306.6 12,832.0 14,473.6 16,129.1 17,767.2
KEY POPULATION RATIOS (GHANA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Active population, total, '000 7,819.5 10,723.0 12,710.5 14,746.4 16,746.1 18,990.6 21,360.0
Active population, % of total population 50.6 54.5 56.5 57.7 58.0 59.0 60.3
Dependent population, total, '000 7,627.5 8,942.5 9,786.4 10,828.4 12,124.9 13,189.8 14,079.8
Dependent ratio, % of total working age 97.5 83.4 77.0 73.4 72.4 69.5 65.9
Youth population, total, '000 7,224.7 8,314.5 9,053.8 10,018.6 11,218.8 12,093.9 12,700.5
Youth population, % of total working age 92.4 77.5 71.2 67.9 67.0 63.7 59.5
Pensionable population, '000 402.8 628.0 732.6 809.8 906.0 1,095.9 1,379.3
Pensionable population, % of total working age 5.2 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.5
URBAN/RURAL POPULATION AND LIFE EXPECTANCY (GHANA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Urban population, '000 5,629.0 8,638.9 10,642.9 12,969.7 15,615.1 18,455.1 21,428.0
Urban population, % of total 36.4 43.9 47.3 50.7 54.1 57.3 60.5
Rural population, '000 9,817.9 11,026.6 11,854.1 12,605.0 13,255.8 13,725.3 14,011.8
Rural population, % of total 63.6 56.1 52.7 49.3 45.9 42.7 39.5
Life expectancy at birth, male, years 54.2 57.1 58.4 59.8 61.4 61.9 63.6
Life expectancy at birth, female, years 57.1 59.3 61.1 62.5 65.0 66.4 68.0
Life expectancy at birth, average, years 55.6 58.2 59.8 61.2 63.2 64.1 65.8
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (GHANA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, total, '000 2,748.5 3,015.6 3,450.5 3,795.7 4,208.6 4,305.0 4,380.5
Population, 30-34 yrs, total, '000 996.4 1,162.4 1,443.2 1,892.4 2,247.6 2,404.5 2,503.3
Population, 35-39 yrs, total, '000 733.8 1,060.5 1,145.8 1,418.7 1,844.8 2,193.4 2,349.7
Population, 40-44 yrs, total, '000 536.6 899.5 1,036.1 1,119.2 1,376.8 1,793.3 2,135.1
Population, 45-49 yrs, total, '000 446.2 657.4 871.4 1,003.6 1,079.9 1,330.9 1,735.2
Population, 50-54 yrs, total, '000 414.0 474.1 629.6 834.4 958.8 1,033.7 1,274.0
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, 55-59 yrs, total, '000 363.8 385.6 445.9 592.5 784.5 903.8 973.1
Population, 100+ yrs, total, '000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, % (GHANA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, % total 17.79 15.33 15.34 14.84 14.58 13.38 12.36
Population, 100+ yrs, % total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Food & Drink Glossary

Food & Drink
Food Consumption: All four food consumption indicators (food consumption in local currency, food consumption in US dollar
terms, per capita food consumption and food consumption as a percentage of GDP) relate to off-trade food and non-alcoholic
drinks consumption, unless stated in the relevant table/section.
Off-trade: Relates to an item consumed away from the premises on which it was purchased. For example, a bottle of water bought
in a supermarket would count as off-trade, while a bottle of water purchased as part of a meal in a restaurant would count as on-
trade.
Canned Food: Relates to the sale of food products preserved by canning. This is inclusive of canned meat and fish, canned ready
meals, canned desserts and canned fruits and vegetables. Volume sales are measured in tonnes as opposed to on a unit basis to
allow for cross-market comparisons.
Confectionery: Refers to retail sales of chocolate, sugar confectionery and gum products. Chocolate sales include chocolate bars
and boxed chocolates; gum sales incorporate both bubble gum and chewing gum; and sugar confectionery sales include hard-
boiled sweets, mints, jellies and medicated sweets.
Trade: In the majority of BMI's Food & Drink reports, we use the UN Standard International Trade Classification, using categories
Food and Live Animals, Beverages and Tobacco, Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes and Oil-seeds and Oleaginous Fruits.
Where an alternative classification is used due to data availability, this is clearly stated.
Drinks Sales: Soft drinks sales (including carbonates, fruit juices, energy drinks, bottled water, functional beverages and ready-to-
drink tea and coffee), alcoholic drinks sales (including beer, wine and spirits) and tea and coffee sales (excluding ready-to-drink tea
and coffee products that are incorporated under our soft drinks banner) are all off-trade only, unless stated.
Mass Grocery Retail
Mass Grocery Retail: We classify mass grocery retail (MGR) as organised retail, performed by companies with a network of modern
grocery retail stores and modern distribution networks. MGR differs from independent or traditional retail, which relates to informal,
independent-owned grocery stores or traditional market retailing. MGR incorporates hypermarket, supermarket, convenience and
discount retailing, and in unique cases cooperative retailing. Where supermarkets are independently owned and not classified as
MGR, we will state so clearly within the relevant report.
Hypermarket: We classify hypermarkets as retail outlets selling both groceries and a large range of general merchandise goods
(non-food items) and typically more than 2,500sq m in size. Traditionally only found on the outskirts of towns, hypermarkets are
increasingly appearing in urban locations.
Supermarket: Supermarkets are the original and still most globally prevalent form of self-service grocery retail outlet. We classify
supermarkets as more than 300sq m, up to the size of a hypermarket. The typical supermarket carries both fresh and processed
food and will stock a range of non-food items, most commonly household and beauty goods. The average supermarket will
increasingly offer some added-value services, such as dry cleaning or in-store ATMs.
Discount Stores: Although most commonly between 500sq m and 1,500sq m in size, similar to supermarkets, discount stores will
typically have a smaller floor space than their supermarket counterparts. Other distinguishing features include the prevalence of
low-priced and private label goods, an absence of added-value services, often called a no-frills environment, and a high product
turnover rate.
Convenience Stores: Our classification of convenience stores includes small outlets typically less than 300sq m in size, with long
opening hours and located in high footfall areas. These stores mainly sell fast-moving food and drink products (such as
confectionery, beverages and snack foods) and non-food items, typically stocking only two or three brand choices per item and
often carrying higher prices than other forms of grocery store.
Cooperatives: We classify cooperatives as retail stores that are independently owned but club together to form buying groups
under a cooperative arrangement, trading under the same banner, although each is privately owned. The arrangement is similar to a
franchise system, although all profits are returned to members. The term is becoming more archaic, with fewer cooperatives
remaining that conform to this model. Most cooperative groups now have a more centralised management structure, operate more
like normal supermarkets, and are thus classified as such in our reports.
Food & Drink Methodology

Connected Thinking
BMI employs a unique methodology known as 'Connected Thinking'. This means that our analysis captures the inter-relatedness of
the global economy, and takes into account all of the relevant political, macroeconomic, financial market and industry factors that
underpin a forecast and view. We then integrate them so as to explain how they interact and affect each other. Our Connected
Thinking approach provides our customers with unique and valuable insight on all relevant macroeconomic, political and industry
risk factors that will impact their operations and revenue-generating potential in the industry/industries within which they operate.
We use a transparent forecasting model as a base for our industry forecasts, but rely heavily on our analysts' expert judgement to
ensure our forecasts capture all of the insights we derive using our unique Connected Thinking approach. We believe analyst
expertise and judgement are the best ways to provide the most accurate, up-to-date and comprehensive insight to our customers.
Food & Drink Methodology
BMI's Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
For the Food & Drink industry we have historical data and five-year forecasts for 101 market-level core industry variables.
We use household spending figures that show spending on food and drink, for consumption at home via retail purchases. We divide
food and drink into two categories: (i) spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks, and (ii) alcoholic drinks.
For the alcoholic drinks sub-categories, we use volume (in litres) consumption by household and per capita in each market; this is
measured via both on and off trade.
Our forecasts are a combination of regression modelling, time series analysis and analyst expert judgement.
Our Food & Drink analysts interact with other analytical teams in BMI, including Country Risk, Agribusiness and Consumer & Retail.
This is to ensure they have a comprehensive understanding of external factors that may impact the food and drink industry outlook
either on a market, regional or global level.
There is a constant rolling cycle of data monitoring, with databases being updated on a quarterly basis. Analysts will use their expert
judgement outside of these cycles to implement forecasts changes when necessary.
Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks is expressed in nominal terms.
We define spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks as the amount households spend on food for domestic consumption only. This
reflects items bought through retail sales channels, based on the UN classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP).
Historical figures for spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks are based on household survey data, following the UN COICOP
classifications.
Where spending data is not readily allocated into the COICOP format, we apply a rigorous and logical approach in allocating data to
align with these categories, and if needed, apply aggregation methods or other techniques to achieve category level data.
Our food & non-alcoholic drinks forecasts are based on regression model and other time series analysis models, using a market’s
own historical time series and key macroeconomic explanatory variables from our Country Risk and Consumer & Retail services. In
addition, we also apply analyst expert judgement to refine and finalise the food & non-alcoholic drinks spending forecast based on
exogenous and endogenous variables or events, not captured by our regression model.
Alcoholic Drinks
Spending on alcoholic drinks is expressed in nominal terms and volume terms.
We define spending on alcoholic drinks as the amount households spend on alcohol for domestic consumption only. This reflects
items bought through all sales channels, based on the UN classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP).
Historical figures for spending on alcoholic drinks are based on household survey data, following the UN COICOP classification.
Alcoholic drink consumption is defined as the total recorded volume of alcohol drinks consumed in a market. Data is presented in
volumes consumed as opposed to pure alcoholic volume. It refers to consumption by people aged 15 and older and all sales
channels of consumption, including out-of-home consumption, such as bars, restaurants etc.
We divide the alcoholic drinks category into beer, wine and spirits, as well as further breakdowns, where data is available, into sub-
categories of these segments.
Our alcoholic drinks forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series. In addition, we also apply
analyst expert judgement to refine and finalise the alcoholic drinks spending forecast based on exogenous and endogenous
variables or events, not captured by our regression model.
Food & Drink (Non-Alcoholic Drinks) Risk/Reward Index
Our Food & Drink (Non-Alcoholic Drinks) Risk/Reward Index (RRI) quantifies and ranks a market's attractiveness within the context of
the food & non-alcoholic drinks industry, based on the balance between the Risks and Rewards of entering and operating in
different markets.
We combine industry-specific characteristics with broader economic, political and operational market characteristics. We weight
these inputs in terms of their importance to investor decision-making in a given industry. The result is a nuanced and accurate
reflection of the realities facing investors in terms of first the balance between opportunities and risk and second between industry-
specific and broader market traits. This enables users of the index to assess a market's attractiveness in a regional and global
context.
The index uses a combination of our proprietary forecasts and analyst assessments of the regulatory climate. As regulations evolve
and forecasts change, so the index scores change providing a highly dynamic and forward-looking result.
The Food & Drink (Non-Alcoholic Drinks) RRI universe comprises 106 markets.
Benefits Of Using Our Food & Drink (Non-Alcoholic Drinks) RRI
• Global Rankings: One global table, ranking all the markets in our universe for food & drink (non-alcoholic drinks) from least
(closest to zero) to most attractive (closest to 100).
• Accessibility: Easily accessible, top-down view of the global, regional or sub-regional risk/reward profiles.
• Comparability: Identical methodology across 106 markets for food & drink (non-alcoholic drinks) allows users to build lists of
markets they wish to compare, beyond the confines of a global or regional grouping.
• Scoring: Scores out of 100 with a wide distribution, provide nuanced investment comparisons. The higher the score, the more
favourable the profile.
• Quantifiable: Quantifies the rewards and risks of doing business in the food & drink (non-alcoholic drinks) industry in different
markets around the world and helps identify specific flashpoints in the overall business environment.
• Comprehensive: Comprehensive set of indicators, assessing industry-specific risks and rewards alongside political, economic
and operating risks.
• Entry Point: A starting point to assess the outlook for the food & drink (non-alcoholic drinks) industry, from which users can
dive into more granular forecasts and analyses to gain a deeper understanding of the market.
• Balanced: Multi-indicator structure prevents outliers and extremes from distorting final scores and rankings.
• Methodology: The index is a combination of proprietary BMI forecasts, analyst insights and globally acceptable benchmark
indicators.
Weightings Of Categories And Indicators

Food & Drink (Non-Alcoholic Drinks) Risk/Reward Index
Source: BMI
The RRI matrix is divided into two distinct categories:
Rewards: Evaluation of an industry's size and growth potential (Industry Rewards), and macro industry and/or market
characteristics that directly impact the size of business opportunities in a specific industry (Country Rewards).
Risks: Evaluation of micro, industry-specific characteristics, crucial for an industry to develop to its potential (Industry Risks) and a
quantifiable assessment of the political, economic and operational profile (Country Risks).
Assessing Our Weightings
Our matrix is deliberately overweight on Rewards (60% of the final RRI score for a market) and within that, the Industry Rewards
segment (60% of the final Rewards score). This is to reflect the fact that when it comes to long-term investment potential, industry
size and growth potential carry the most weight in indicating opportunities, with other structural factors (demographic, labour
statistics and infrastructure availability) weighing in, but to a slightly lesser extent. In addition, our focus and expertise in emerging
and frontier markets has dictated this bias towards industry size and growth to ensure we are able to identify opportunities in
markets where regulatory frameworks are not as developed and industry sizes are not as big as in developed markets, but where we
know there is a strong desire to invest.
FOOD & DRINK (NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS) RRI INDICATORS - EXPLANATION AND SOURCES
Source Rationale
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Denotes per capita spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks in USD.

F&D Spending Per Capita BMI Forecast
Wealthier populations spend more on F&D products.
Denotes food & non-alcoholic drinks industry dynamism as a percentage.

F&D Five-Year Growth Rate BMI Forecast Scores based on annual average growth over our five-year forecast
period.
Denotes total household spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks in

Total F&D Expenditure BMI Forecast
USDbn. Large markets score higher than smaller ones.
Country Rewards
Size of the population in millions as a measure for the total addressable

Population BMI Forecast
market.
Proportion of households with an income that exceeds USD10,000.

Mass Affluent Class BMI Forecast Excludes those in poverty but demonstrates potential demand for
branded products.
Size of the urban population in millions. Higher urban population size is a

Urban Population BMI Forecast positive for distribution, higher economic development and accessing
products through a network of retailers.
Proportion of the population between 20-39 years old as a percentage.

Spending Population BMI Forecast This is typically the range that companies target as a high spending/
trendsetting generation.
Risks
Industry Risks
Uses Operational Risk's Economic Openness as a proxy for determining

Regulatory Environment BMI Operational Risk Index
the ease of entering and doing business in a market.
Uses our urban/rural split (%) data as a proxy for determining the level of
F&D Formalisation BMI Forecast retail/hospitality formalisation in the market. Highly urbanised markets
allow companies to easily serve more consumers.
Uses Operational Risk's Logistics Risk to determine the risks and costs
associated with moving products around a market. Higher scores
Logistics Risk BMI Operational Risk Index
indicate quality transport, cheap fuel/electricity and high levels of tech
adoption
Country Risks
Takes into account the structural characteristics of economic growth, the

Long-Term Economic Risk labour market, price stability, exchange rate stability and the
BMI Country Risk Index
Index sustainability of the balance of payments, as well as fiscal and external
debt outlooks for the coming decade.
Seeks to define current vulnerabilities and assess real GDP growth,

Short-Term Economic Risk inflation, unemployment, exchange rate fluctuation, balance of
Index payments dynamics, as well as fiscal and external debt credentials over
the coming two years
Long-Term Political Risk BMI Country Risk Index Assesses structural political characteristics based on our assumption that
Source Rationale
liberal, democratic markets with no sectarian tensions and broad-based

Index income equality exhibit the strongest characteristics in favour of political
stability, over a multi-year time frame.
Short-Term Political Risk Assesses pertinent political risks to investment climate stability over a
Index shorter time frame, up to 24 months forward.
Focuses on existing conditions relating to four main risk areas: Labour

Operational Risk Index BMI Operational Risk Index
Market, Trade & Investment, Logistics, and Crime & Security.
Source: BMI
Food & Drink (Alcoholic Drinks) Risk/Reward Index
Our Food & Drink (Alcoholic Drinks) Risk/Reward Index (RRI) quantifies and ranks a market's attractiveness within the context of the
food & drink (alcoholic drinks) industry, based on the balance between the Risks and Rewards of entering and operating in
different markets.
We combine industry-specific characteristics with broader economic, political and operational market characteristics. We weight
these inputs in terms of their importance to investor decision-making in a given industry. The result is a nuanced and accurate
reflection of the realities facing investors in terms of first the balance between opportunities and risk and second between industry-
specific and broader market traits. This enables users of the index to assess a market's attractiveness in a regional and global
context.
The index uses a combination of our proprietary forecasts and analyst assessments of the regulatory climate. As regulations evolve
and forecasts change, so the index scores change providing a highly dynamic and forward-looking result.
The Food & Drink (Alcoholic Drinks) RRI universe comprises 95 markets.
Benefits Of Using Our Food & Drink (Alcoholic Drinks) RRI
• Global Rankings: One global table, ranking all the markets in our universe for food & drink (alcoholic drinks) from least (closest
to zero) to most attractive (closest to 100).
• Accessibility: Easily accessible, top-down view of the global, regional or sub-regional risk/reward profiles.
• Comparability: Identical methodology across 95 markets for food & drink (alcoholic drinks) allows users to build lists of markets
they wish to compare, beyond the confines of a global or regional grouping.
• Scoring: Scores out of 100 with a wide distribution, provide nuanced investment comparisons. The higher the score, the more
favourable the profile.
• Quantifiable: Quantifies the rewards and risks of doing business in the food & drink (alcoholic drinks) industry in different
markets around the world and helps identify specific flashpoints in the overall business environment.
• Comprehensive: Comprehensive set of indicators, assessing industry-specific risks and rewards alongside political, economic
and operating risks.
• Entry Point: A starting point to assess the outlook for the food & drink (alcoholic drinks) industry, from which users can dive into
more granular forecasts and analysis to gain a deeper understanding of the market.
• Balanced: Multi-indicator structure prevents outliers and extremes from distorting final scores and rankings.
• Methodology: The index is a combination of proprietary BMI forecasts, analyst insights and globally acceptable benchmark
indicators.
Weightings Of Categories And Indicators

Food & Drink (Alcoholic Drinks) Risk/Reward Index
Source: BMI
The RRI matrix is divided into two distinct categories:
Rewards: Evaluation of an industry's size and growth potential (Industry Rewards), and macro industry and/or market
characteristics that directly impact the size of business opportunities in a specific industry (Country Rewards).
Risks: Evaluation of micro, industry-specific characteristics, crucial for an industry to develop to its potential (Industry Risks) and a
quantifiable assessment of the political, economic and operational profile (Country Risks).
Assessing Our Weightings
Our matrix is deliberately overweight on Rewards (60% of the final RRI score for a market) and within that, the Industry Rewards
segment (60% of the final Rewards score). This is to reflect the fact that when it comes to long-term investment potential, industry
size and growth potential carry the most weight in indicating opportunities, with other structural factors (demographic, labour
statistics and infrastructure availability) weighing in, but to a slightly lesser extent. In addition, our focus and expertise in emerging
and frontier markets has dictated this bias towards industry size and growth to ensure we are able to identify opportunities in
markets where regulatory frameworks are not as developed and industry sizes are not as big as in developed markets, but where we
know there is a strong desire to invest.
FOOD & DRINK (ALCOHOLIC DRINKS) RRI INDICATORS - EXPLANATION AND SOURCES
Source Rationale
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Denotes per capita consumption of alcoholic drinks in litres. Measures which

Alcohol Consumption Per
BMI Forecast populations consume more on alcohol products at the individual level rather
Capita
than total size.
Alcohol 5-Year Growth Denotes alcoholic drinks industry dynamism as a percentage. Scores based
BMI Forecast
Rate on annual average growth over our five-year forecast period.
Total Alcohol Denotes total consumption of alcoholic drinks in millions of litres. Large
BMI Forecast
Consumption markets score higher than smaller ones.
Denotes per capita spending of alcoholic drinks in USD. Measures which

Alcohol Spending Per
BMI Forecast populations spend more on alcohol products at the individual level rather
Capita
than total size.
Alcohol Spending Growth Denotes alcoholic drinks spending dynamism as a %. Scores based on
BMI Forecast
Rate annual average growth over our five-year forecast period.
Denotes total spending of alcoholic drinks in USD. Large markets score

Alcohol Spending Total BMI Forecast
higher than smaller ones.
Country Rewards
Size of the population in millions as a measure for the total addressable

Population BMI Forecast
market.
Proportion of households with an income that exceeds USD10,000. Excludes

Mass Affluent Class BMI Forecast those in poverty but demonstrates potential demand for branded alcohol
products.
Size of the urban population in millions. Higher urban population size is a

Urban Population BMI Forecast positive for distribution, higher economic development and accessing
products through a network of retailers.
Proportion of the population between 20-39 years old as a percentage. This

Spending Population BMI Forecast is typically the range that companies target as a high spending/trendsetting
generation and are generally over the legal drinking age.
International Tourism Represents the total spend of international visitors. Provides another
BMI Tourism Forecast
Receipts Total potential market opportunity for the alcoholic drinks industry.
Represents the total spend of international visitors on a per capita basis.

International Tourism
BMI Tourism Forecast Measures economic potential of the alcohol drinks market at the individual
Receipts Per Visitor
level rather than total size.
Source Rationale
Risks
Industry Risks
Uses Operational Risk's Economic Openness as a proxy for determining the

Regulatory Environment BMI Operational Risk Index
ease of entering and doing business in a market.
Uses our urban/rural split (%) data as a proxy for determining the level of
F&D Formalisation BMI Forecast retail/hospitality formalisation in the market. Highly urbanised markets allow
companies to easily serve more consumers.
Uses Operational Risk's Logistics Risk to determine the risks and costs
Logistics Risk BMI Operational Risk Index associated with moving products around a market. Higher scores indicate
quality transport, cheap fuel/electricity and high levels of tech adoption
Country Risks
Takes into account the structural characteristics of economic growth, the

Long-Term Economic Risk labour market, price stability, exchange rate stability and the sustainability of
Index the balance of payments, as well as fiscal and external debt outlooks for the
coming decade.
Seeks to define current vulnerabilities and assess real GDP growth, inflation,
Short-Term Economic Risk
BMI Country Risk Index unemployment, exchange rate fluctuation, balance of payments dynamics,
Index
as well as fiscal and external debt credentials over the coming two years
Assesses structural political characteristics based on our assumption that

Long-Term Political Risk liberal, democratic markets with no sectarian tensions and broad-based
Index income equality exhibit the strongest characteristics in favour of political
stability, over a multi-year time frame.
Short-Term Political Risk Assesses pertinent political risks to investment climate stability over a
Index shorter time frame, up to 24 months forward.
Focuses on existing conditions relating to four main risk areas: Labour

Operational Risk Index BMI Operational Risk Index
Market, Trade & Investment, Logistics, and Crime & Security.
Source: BMI
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2023.Q3 - Fitch - Ghana Food & Drink Report

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2023.Q3 - Fitch - Ghana Food & Drink Report

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Exclusively for the use of Veronica Kekana at The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited.

Industry Trends And Developments .....................................................................................................................................17

Industry Risk/Reward Index ....................................................................................................................................................23

Ghana Demographic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................64

Food & Drink Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................67

Food & Drink Methodology .......................................................................................................................................................68

© 2023 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2023 Fitch Solutions Group Limited.

Inflation Is Driving Food & Drink Spending Growth

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

total of 247.8mn litres.

Inflation In Ghana Has Peaked

Source: Ghana Statistical Service, BMI

Ghanaian Consumers Still Facing Inflationary Pressures

2023 Food Outlook

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Bread, Rice And Cereals

Fish And Fish Products

Sugar And Sugar Products

FOOD SALES (GHANA 2020-2027)

Bread, rice and cereals, sales, GHSmn, %

Pasta products, sales, GHSmn, % growth

Baked goods, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-

Meat and Poultry, sales, GHSmn, %

Fish and fish products, sales, GHSmn, %

Oils and Fats, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-

Fresh and preserved fruit, sales, GHSmn,

Fresh vegetables, sales, GHSmn, %

Sugar and sugar products, sales, GHSmn,

Other food products, sales, GHSmn, %

2023 Alcoholic Drinks Outlook

Alcohol Consumption Growth To Slow

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Trademap, BMI

TOTAL ALCOHOLIC DRINKS SPENDING AND CONSUMPTION (GHANA 2020-2027)

2023 Non-Alcoholic Drinks Outlook

Steady Growth For Non-Alcoholic Drinks

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS SALES (GHANA 2020-2027)

Coffee, teas and other hot drinks, sales, GHSmn, %

Fruit and vegetable juices, sales, GHSmn, % growth y-o-

Industry Trends And Developments

Dietary Spending Shift Overview

Despite Challenging Periods, Real Food Spending Will Grow Robustly

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Consumers Have Grown Their Focus On Key Spending Segments

f = BMI forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Staples Are Important In Local Diets, With Rice Dominating

Spending Trends Within The Staples Segment Have Evolved

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Fish Is A Key Feature In Many Local Dishes

Fish Spending Growth Will Be Strong

Source: National sources, BMI

Strong Spending On Sugar Products Presents Opportunities For Confectionery

Local Production Is Rapidly Increasing Consumer Demand For Chocolate

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Industry Risk/Reward Index

SSA's Attractiveness Affected By Low Risk Scores

Main Regional Features And Latest Updates

Few Markets In SSA Offer Low Risks And High Rewards

Economic, Operational And Political Challenges Remain High In SSA

SSA's Risk Profile Will Deter Widespread Investment

South Africa Tops The Region