Probability

Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the

occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed from zero to one.
Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict how likely events are to
happen. The meaning of probability is basically the extent to which something is
likely to happen.

Probability Definition in Math

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events
cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of an
event to occur i.e., how likely they are going to happen, using it. Probability can
range from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an impossible one and 1
indicates a certain event.
The probability of all the events in a sample space adds up to 1.

Formula for Probability

The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is
equal to the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes and the total
number of outcomes.
Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total
Number of outcomes

For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two possible
outcomes are possible (H, T). P(H)=1/2=0.5 and p(T)=1/2=0.5
equally likely ways: When the events have the same theoretical probability
of happening, then they are called equally likely events.
But when two coins are tossed then there will be four possible outcomes, i.e {(H,
H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}.

E=getting 2 heads
P(E)=1/4
1) There are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow and 1 is blue.
What is the probability of picking a yellow pillow?
Ans: The probability is equal to the number of yellow pillows in the bed
divided by the total number of pillows, i.e. 2/6 = 1/3.
2)There is a container full of coloured bottles, red, blue, green and
orange. Some of the bottles are picked out. Sumit did this 1000
times and got the following results:

 No. of blue bottles picked out: 300

 No. of red bottles: 200
 No. of green bottles: 450
 No. of orange bottles: 50
a) What is the probability that Sumit will pick a green bottle?

Ans: For every 1000 bottles picked out, 450 are green.
Therefore, P(green) = 450/1000 = 0.45

Probability of an Event not occurring

Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or
possible equally likely ways. Then the probability of happening of the event
or its success is expressed as;
P(E) = r/n
The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is
expressed as:
Ꞌ
P(E )=P(not E) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
E’ represents that the event will not occur.Therefore, now we can say;
 Ꞌ
P(E) + P(E ) = 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or
experiment is equal to 1.
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is the probability that depends on a
previous result or event. Due to this fact, they help us
understand how events are related to each other. Simply put,
conditional probability tells us the likelihood of the occurrence of
an event based on the occurrence of some previous outcome.
In other words, it calculates the probability of one event happening
given that a certain condition is satisfied. It is represented as P(A | B)
which means the probability of A when B has already happened.

Availability of A in B
Availability of B in A
 3/7

Joint probabilities
 3/15

2/15

Conditional probabilities
P(G|S)=?

P(R|PG)=?
Example:
Tossing a fair coin 3 times

S={HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT}
E:At least 2 Tails={ HTT , THT,TTH,TTT } ----4/8=1/2
F:First coin shows head={ HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT }----- 4/8=1/2

E∩F={HTT}----1/8

P (At least 2 tails given that the first coin is head) =

P(E|F) = P(E∩F)/P(F) = (1/8)/(1/2)=2/8=1/4

Example:
Problem

You toss a fair coin three times:

a. What is the probability of three heads, HHH?

b. What is the probability that you observe exactly one head?
c. Given that you have observed at least one heads, what is the
probability that you observe at least two heads?

Soln
a. 1/8
b. 3/8
 c. P(at least 1 head)=7/8
A= at least 2 heads
B= at least 1 head
P(A|B ) = P(A∩ B) /P(B) =(4/8)/(7/8)=4/7

Problem
A fair coin is tossed twice such that E: event of having both head and tail, and
F: event of having atmost one tail. Find P(E), P(F) and P(E|F)

Solution:

The sample space S = { HH, HT, TH, TT}

E = {HT, TH}

F = {HH, HT, TH}

E ∩ F = {HT, TH}

P(E) = 2/4 = ½

P(F) = ¾

P(E ∩ F) = 2/4 = ½

P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = ½ ÷ ¾ = ⅔.

Problem:

A dice and a coin are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of obtaining
a 6, given that a head came up.

Solution:

Let A: six coming with a heads

B: coin shows a head

A ={(6, H))

B = {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H)}
n(A ∩ B) = 1 and n(B) = 6

∴ Probability of getting a six when there is a head is given by –

P(A|B) = n(A ∩ B)/n(B) = ⅙.

Problem:

For Example, let’s consider the case of rolling two dice, sample
space of this event is as follows:
{(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

Soln:
Now, consider the events:
A = getting 3 on the first die
B = getting a sum of 9.
Then the probability of getting 9 when on the first die is already 3 is P(B | A),
which can be calculated as follows:
All the cases for the first die as 3 are
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)
(p(A)=6/36=1/6).
In all of these cases, only one case has a sum of 9
(p(A∩B)=1/36) .
Thus, P(B | A) = P(A∩B)/P(A)=(1/36)/(1/6)=6/36=1/6.
If we have to find P(A | B),
All cases where the sum is 9 are (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), and (6, 3)
(p(B)=4/36=1/9).
In all of these cases, only one case has 3 on the first die i.e., (3, 6)
Thus, P(A | B) = (1/36)/(1/9)=9/36=1/4.
 Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem is a fundamental concept in probability theory named after the Reverend Thomas
Bayes. It provides a mathematical framework for updating beliefs or hypotheses in light of new
evidence or information. This theorem is extensively used in various fields, including statistics,
machine learning, and artificial intelligence.

At its core, Bayes’ Theorem enables us to calculate the probability of

a hypothesis being true given observed evidence. The theorem is
expressed mathematically as follows:
P(A B) = (P(B A) × P(A)) / P(B)
Bayes’ Theorem is particularly powerful because it allows us to incorporate new evidence
incrementally, refining our beliefs as more data becomes available. This iterative process of
updating beliefs with new evidence forms the basis of Bayesian inference, which is widely
used in fields such as medical diagnosis, spam filtering, weather forecasting, and many
others.
Bayes’ Theorem provides a principled approach for reasoning under uncertainty, making it
a cornerstone of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making in diverse domains.

Example-1
P(P|D)=(5/100*70/100)/(5/100*70/100+8/100*30/100)=

0.35/(0.035+0.024)=0.35/0.059=0.59
Example-3

False
positive