BACKGROUND OF STUDY

Yemen, predominantly Muslim, has historically been divided between Shi’a Zaydis in the north
and Sunnis. Zaydi dynasties ruled parts of Yemen until 1962, when civil strife in the north and an
uprising in the south against British colonial rule reshaped the political landscape. This led to the
formation of the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) in the north and the socialist People’s Democratic
Republic of Yemen (PDRY) in the south.

The civil war in Yemen erupted in 2014 when Houthi insurgents, with ties to Iran, seized control
of the capital, triggering a series of events including failed negotiations and the capture of the
presidential palace in 2015. This forced President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his government
to resign, prompting a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia to launch military action
against the Houthis with U.S. support.

In subsequent years, the conflict intensified with strategic offensives and ceasefires, including a
notable push towards the city of Hodeidah in 2018. However, clashes persisted elsewhere,
notably in Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, which remained a focal point of contention. In
February 2021, Houthi rebels intensified their offensive, targeting Marib and launching missile
strikes in Saudi Arabia, escalating the conflict and complicating peace efforts.

Throughout this conflict, Yemeni civilians have borne the brunt of the crisis, leading to one of
the world's worst humanitarian catastrophes. The United Nations estimates that a significant
portion of the deaths in Yemen between 2015 and 2022 were due to indirect causes such as food
insecurity and inadequate healthcare access.

OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY

The conflict in Yemen has exacerbated an economic crisis, further worsening the ongoing
humanitarian emergency. By late 2019, the economy had fractured into two distinct zones
controlled by the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government, deepening the divide. In the
autumn of 2021, the Yemeni currency experienced a sharp devaluation, particularly in areas
under government control, leading to a significant decline in purchasing power and exacerbating
the struggle for basic necessities. This economic hardship sparked widespread protests across
southern Yemen, met with forceful responses from security forces.
Yemen's strategic location adjacent to Saudi Arabia, a major global oil producer, and its position
along the vital Bab-el-Mandeb strait linking the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Red
Sea and the Suez Canal, underscore its geopolitical significance. Moreover, Yemen could
potentially emerge as a battleground in the broader regional power struggle between Saudi
Arabia and Iran. Given these factors, close monitoring of developments in Yemen is imperative.

WHO IS FIGHTING WHO

The conflict in Yemen involves two primary opposing factions. The first comprises Houthi
forces, aligned with former President Saleh and backed by Iran. The second faction is a coalition
opposing the Houthi/Saleh alliance, supporting the Hadi government and led by Saudi Arabia.
This coalition receives support from the United States and other Western nations. It's worth
noting that these factions are internally diverse, with varying interests and priorities among their
members.

As of spring 2017, Yemen's war had entered its third year without a clear victor. Pro-government
forces, including troops loyal to President Hadi, predominantly Sunni southern tribesmen, and
separatists, successfully defended the city of Aden from rebel capture in the summer of 2015,
following a prolonged and bloody battle. Subsequently, Arab coalition troops intervened, aiding
in the expulsion of Houthi forces from much of the southern region. President Hadi returned
from exile and established his government in Aden, yet his control remains limited to the city
and its immediate environs.

YEMEN AT WAR

By spring 2017, Yemen's conflict had entered its third year, with no clear winner in sight. Pro-
government forces, including soldiers loyal to President Hadi, as well as predominantly Sunni
southern tribesmen and separatists, managed to prevent the rebels from seizing Aden in the
summer of 2015, albeit after a grueling four-month battle. With a foothold established, Arab
coalition troops intervened in Aden, aiding in pushing Houthi forces out of much of the southern
territory. Despite this, President Hadi's government, reinstated after his return from exile,
maintains control primarily within Aden and its immediate vicinity.
FACTORS AUGUMENTING THE CONFLICT

Since the unification of Yemen in 1990, many influential politicians in the southern region have
advocated for secession, confederation, or increased autonomy for their provinces. However, the
Yemeni government has consistently pursued centralization of power, disregarding the demands
of the southern factions. Human rights organizations and international observers have
documented numerous violations committed by the central government, as well as by the
Houthis and Saleh forces, against southern secessionist and opposition figures.

Patronage Politics, Corruption, and Clientelism

The decline in oil prices in the mid-1980s resulted in reduced direct payments from Saudi Arabia
to tribal sheikhs in Yemen. Additionally, Yemen's decision to remain neutral during Iraq's
invasion of Kuwait in the Gulf War prompted decisive actions by Gulf countries, particularly
Saudi Arabia, leading to the deportation of hundreds of thousands of Yemeni workers back to
their homeland. Despite causing resentment in Yemen, these events allowed Saleh to manipulate
the political economy by controlling import licenses, thereby altering the dynamics of Yemen's
business class and the traditional role of tribal elites.

National Dialogue Conference (NDC)The negotiations between various Yemeni factions were
spearheaded by the Gulf States and the international community, with support from the United
Nations. The National Dialogue Conference (NDC) played a crucial role in the agreement
brokered by the UN and the Gulf Cooperation Council, which led to the transition of power from
long-time President Ali Abdullah Saleh to Hadi in November 2011 following an uprising. The
conference resulted in significant outcomes related to the power-sharing system, addressing
issues in the southern region, and addressing concerns in peripheral areas of Yemen.

Learning Outcomes of Changing and Unchanging Nature of Wars

Studying the evolution of warfare provides nations with valuable insights into the changing
dynamics and enduring principles of conflict. This understanding enables nations to adapt their
strategies, technologies, and policies to effectively address modern security challenges.
Moreover, recognizing the timeless aspects of warfare fosters resilience and preparedness against
emerging threats. Ultimately, this study equips nations with the knowledge and foresight needed
to safeguard their interests and foster peace and stability in an ever-evolving global landscape.

Conclusion:

The possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in Yemen appears distant, with the country likely to
remain embroiled in a prolonged conflict. The military situation is at an impasse, with factions
driven by animosity, distrust, and sectarianism. Even if the Saudi-led coalition were to capture
Sana’a, it would not necessarily bring an end to the hostilities, as the Houthis are unlikely to
surrender. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia's intervention may result in the emergence of a failed state
in its immediate vicinity, with the Houthis maintaining their hostile stance, creating fertile
ground for the proliferation of extremism.

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