presented by

Dato’ Ir. Dr. Ahmad Anuar Othman

PEng, FIEM, ACPE, MMSET, MIQM, MRCA, MPMI, CCPM, PMP
DIRECTOR
FLOOD MANAGEMENT SECTION
 Presentation Outline
1. Introduction
2. Project Management Process
3. Triple Constraints
4. Time Estimation
5. Cost Estimation
6. Conclusion

2
INTRODUCTION
What is a Project?
 The PMBOK Definition

TEMPORARY
A Temporary Endeavour undertaken
to Create a
Unique Product, Service or Result.

UNIQUE
 Definition of Project

UNIQUE OUTCOME
specific purpose, for different stakeholders, done at
TEMPORARY different location, use different design or configuration,
done under different circumstances/situations,
encounter different constraints, facing different risks.

DEFINITE
Beginning & End
UNIQUE
Project – in Brief

Projects are temporary in

nature, have definite start
and end dates; produce a
unique product, service, or
result; and are completed
when their goals and
objectives have been met
and signed off by the
stakeholders or when the
project is terminated.
 Operations
Are ongoing and repetitive.

Involve work that is continuous without an

ending date, and you often repeat the
same processes and produce the same
results.

The purpose of operations is to keep the

organization functioning, whereas the
purpose of a project is to meet its goals
and to conclude.
 What is
Project Management?
Project Management
PMBOK 01 TOOLS
The application of tools,
techniques, skills and 02 TECHNIQUES
knowledge to project activities
to meet the project
requirements. 03 SKILLS

04 KNOWLEDGE
 Project Management Process

I I Initiating
1
P Planning
P
E Executing
C 6 2
Monitoring & Controlling
5 M&C

7 3 E C Closing

M&C 4
E
I
Project Management Process Group
INITIATING
Beginning of each phase.
PLANNING
Process of formulating and revising project
goals and objectives and creating the project
management plan.
EXECUTING
Putting the project management plan into action
and utilize most project time and resources.
MONITORING & CONTROLLING
Performance measurement are taken.
CLOSING
Brings a formal, orderly end to the activities of a
project phase or project itself.
RAJAH JPSPK2020 : PROSES-PROSES UTAMA DALAM
PENGURUSAN PROJEK
TIME ESTIMATION
 Tools and Techniques for Estimate

Expert Judgment
▪expert judgment guided by historical information, provides valuable insight from prior
similar project.
Analogous Estimating
▪uses values from previous similar project as the basis for estimating the same parameter or
measurement for a current project.
Parametric Estimating
▪uses a statistical relationship between relevant historical data and other variable (e.g.
square meter in construction)
Three Point Estimating
▪uses most likely (M), optimistic (O) and pessimistic (P). Estimate = (O+4M+P)/6
Bottom-up Estimating
▪is a method of estimating a component of work individually and then rolls them up to derive
a total project cost estimate.
Expert Judgment - Water Transfer Project

Sungai Perak
To Penang canal

Intake
Structures
Work Break Down Structure

The WBS is foundation of a project.

Forming a basis for project planning and

execution.

Project costs and time are estimated at

the work package or activity level.
 WBS

Work package
or activity
 Example: WBS FOR ROAD PROJECT
PROJEK PEMBINAAN JALAN

PRELIMINARY ROAD WORK FINAL INSPECTION

Performance CH 00 - 50 CH 50 - 100
Bond

Geotechnical Pavement Road Electrical Earthwork Geotechnical

Insurance Earthwork Drainage
Works Works Furniture Works Works

Stripping of
Site office Stripping of Laying of Excavation Underground Topsoil
Preparation of Install Traffic
Topsoil Geotecxtile Ducts and
Formation and Barrier
Proof Rolling Cable
Survey & Supply and Excavation
Setting Out Install Pipe USM
Excavation Soil Road Line
USM Culvert
Replacement and Road
Subbase Lighting
Site Clearance Marking Common
250mm Column and
& Earthworks Works Excavation
Supply and Feeder Pillar
Common Install V
Excavation shape Drain Roadbase
Concrete Embankment
300mm
Environmental Kerb Fill
Management Embankment
Plan (EMP) Fill
Prime Coat
Fencing and Turfing and
Gating Hydroseeding
Traffic Turfing and
Hydroseeding Binder
Management Course
System (TMS)

Tack Coat

Wearing
Course
Estimate Activity Duration

Estimate how much time each

activity will take. Need to refer
to historical data and lesson
learned about activity duration. Padding is a sign of poor
project management.

Project manager should use

reliable and realistic approach
in estimating and not simply
guessing or padding.
 How Is Estimating Done?
Analogous Estimating (Top down)

It is less time consuming and less

It is a gross value estimating costly than other estimating
technique. technique, but it is also less
accurate.

Analogous estimating can be Example : The last five projects

used to determine overall similar to this one each took
project duration and cost eight months, so this one should
estimate for the entire project. also take same duration.
 How Is Estimating Done?

Parametric Estimating

Quantitatively Can be highly Example :

based estimating accurate if the time per
that multiplies the data you are linear meter,
quantity of work by using is reliable. time per
the rate. installation.
 How Is Estimating Done?
Three Point estimating
(PERT analysis, Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
There is very small probability of completing a project on
exactly any one date.
It is often best to make estimate in range using three-point
estimate.
Based on three figures – most likely (M), optimistic estimate
(O) and pessimistic estimate (P).
 Three Point Estimating - Example
Data from construction of 10 medium traffic bridges
Bridge 1= 43 days Bridge 6 = 55 days
Bridge 2= 50 days Bridge 7 = 48 days
Bridge 3= 60 days Bridge 8 = 50 days
Bridge 4= 65 days Bridge 9 = 62 days
Bridge 5= 50 days Bridge 10= 40 days

Most likely (M) =50 days, Optimistic estimate (O) = 40 days

Pessimistic estimate (P) = 65 days.

Expected Duration= 65 + 4 (50) + 40 = 50.83 Std Dev= 65 - 40 = 4.17

6 6

There is 68.26 % chance that the project will be completed in 46.66 to 55 days.
 Three Point Estimating - Example

Most likely (M) =18 days, Optimistic estimate (O) = 14 days and pessimistic
estimate (P) = 26 days.
Expected Duration = 26 + 4 (18)+14 = 18.67 days + and – (Std dev) to get range of
duration
6
Standard Deviation = 26 - 14 = 2 days, Variance = 4
6
There is 68.26 percent chance that the activity will be completed in 16.67 days
to 20.67 days.
The Normal Distribution
The Normal Distribution
 Using Bromilow Time Cost Model

1 Projek Tebatan Banjir dan 3

Saliran Bandar, T= 281C 0.335 Projek Sungai, T=217C 0.505

2 4
Projek Pantai, T=292C 0.314 Projek Pengairan, T=315C 0.545

di mana T = Tempoh pembinaan dalam hari

C = Nilai anggaran kos projek (RM juta)
 Bromilow Model in JKR Projects

Kerja Bangunan, T = 327C 0.25

Kerja Kejuruteraan Awam, T = 223C 0.33

 Using Bromilow Time Cost Model

Projek Tebatan Banjir dan Saliran Bandar, T = 281C 0.335

If the estimated project cost is RM 50 million, what is expected duration

Expected duration T = 281(50) 0.335
T = 1042 days (35 bulan)
 KERJA
KEJURUTERAAN/
TEBATAN BANJIR
 KERJA
KEJURUTERAAN
PANTAI
 KERJA
KEJURUTERAAN
SUNGAI
 KERJA
KEJURUTERAAN
PENGAIRAN
 Kaedah Power-Series Estimation untuk
Projek Berkaitan Mekanikal dan Elektrikal
Three quarter rule for cost
0.75
𝑆𝑝
𝐶𝑝 = 𝐶ⅇ
𝑆ⅇ

di mana :-
T = Tempoh pembinaan
C = Kos
S = Kapasiti
e = Sedia ada (existing)
p = Rancang (plan)

Square root rule for duration

0.5
𝐶𝑝
𝑇𝑝 = 𝑇ⅇ
𝐶ⅇ
 Contoh Pengiraan Menggunakan Power-Series Estimation

Three quarter rule for cost

𝟎.𝟕𝟓
𝑺𝒑
𝑪𝒑 = 𝑪ⅇ
𝑺ⅇ

Square root rule for duration

𝟎.𝟓
𝑪𝒑
𝑻𝒑 = 𝑻ⅇ
𝑪ⅇ

Di mana:
C= cost, T= duration, p =plan, e = existing
 Sebuah Rumah Pam berkapasiti 200 cusec telah dibina dengan kos RM 2.3 juta dalam tempoh 18 bulan.
Apakah anggaran kos dan tempoh untuk pembinaan Rumah Pam berkapasiti 280 cusec.

Three quarter rule for cost Square root rule for duration
Anggaran Kos, Anggaran Tempoh,

𝟎.𝟕𝟓 𝟎.𝟓
𝑺𝒑 𝑪𝒑
𝑪𝒑 = 𝑪ⅇ 𝑻𝒑 = 𝑻ⅇ
𝑺ⅇ 𝑪ⅇ

𝑪𝒑 = 2.3 (280/200) 0.75 𝑻𝒑 = 18 (2.96/2.3) 0.5

= RM 2.96 juta = 24.42 bulan

Di mana:
C= cost, T= duration, p =plan, e = existing
COST ESTIMATION
 Estimate Costs
Process of developing an approximation of the cost of resources needed to
complete project work;
This includes human, material and equipment and also other known factors that
can be figured in.

Weighing alternative options and examining risks and trade-offs ( make versus
buy, buy versus lease).

The key of determining accurate cost estimate is work breakdown structure.

 Tools and Techniques for Estimate

Expert Judgment
guided by historical information, provides
valuable insight from prior similar project Analogous Estimating
uses values from previous similar project as
the basis for estimating the same parameter
or measurement for a current project
Parametric Estimating
uses a statistical relationship between
relevant historical data and other variable
(e.g. square meter in construction)
Three Point Estimating
uses most likely (M), optimistic (O) and
Bottom-up Estimating pessimistic cost (P). Estimate = (O+4M+P)/6

is a method of estimating a component of

work individually and then rolls them up
to derive a total project cost estimate
 Estimating Techniques

Accuracy of
Stage Estimation Method
Estimate
Initiation -25 % to +75 % (Rough Expert Judgement
order of magnitude)
Analogous Estimating

Bottom-up Estimating
End of Planning -5 % to +10 %
A+B+C

A B C Parametric
Estimating
on BQ
• Schedule
of rate
• Expert
Judgement
Bottom up
estimate

WBS

Parametric
Cost= Quantity x Rate
Conclusion

Two key features of a project are on-time and

on-budget delivery;

Accurate estimate on schedule and cost help to

fulfill these objectives; and

Project Manager should use reliable and

realistic approach in estimating and not simply
guessing or padding.