Paper 2 - Changing Population (Unit 1) - GLOBAL CHANGE

Key:
Topic Names
Sub-topics
→ sub-sub topics
Case studies

Syllabus Requirements

How population varies between Physical and human factors affecting population
places distribution at the global scale

Global patterns and classification of economic

development:
● low-income countries
● middle-income countries and emerging
economies
● high-income countries

Population distribution and economic development at

the national scale, including voluntary internal
migration, core-periphery patterns and megacity
growth
● Two detailed and contrasting examples of
uneven population distribution
Processes of population change and
their effect on people and places
Population possibilities and power
over the decision-making process
Population change and demographic transition over
time, including natural increase, fertility rate, life
expectancy, population structure and dependency
ratios
● Detailed examples of two or more contrasting
countries
The consequences of megacity growth for individuals
and societies
● One case study of a contemporary megacity
experiencing rapid growth
The causes and consequences of forced migration and
internal displacement
● Detailed examples of two or more forced
movements, to include environmental and
political push factors, and consequences for
people and places
Global and regional/continental trends in family size,
sex ratios, and ageing/greying
Policies associated with managing population change,
focusing on:
● policies related to ageing societies
● pro-natalist or anti-natalist policies
● gender equality policies and anti-trafficking
policies
The demographic dividend and the ways in which
population could be considered a resource when
contemplating possible futures
● One case study of a country benefiting from a
demographic dividend
 Key definitions

Term Definition

Population distribution A description of the way in which people are spread out across the Earth's
surface.

Population density The number of people living within a specified area.

Crude birth rate The number of live births of a given area during a given year, per 1,000 of
the population. Note: not 1000 women

Crude death rate The number of deaths occurring among the population of a given area
during a given year, per 1,000 of the population.

Child mortality rate The number of children who die before the age of 5 per 1000 live births

Natural increase rate The difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths
during the year.

Annual growth rate The increase in a country's population during a period of time, usually one
year, expressed as a percentage of the population at the start of that period.
Reflects the number of birth and deaths and migration.

Total fertility rate The average number of children a woman has during her childbearing years
/ in her lifetime (taken from IB markscheme)

Fertility rate The number of births per 1000 women of childbearing age (15-44)

Replacement rate The average number of children born per woman—at which a population
exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration.

Infant mortality rate The number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births
in a given area during a given year, per 1,000 live births.

Child mortality rate The number of deaths under five years of age occurring in a given area
during a given year, per 1,000 live births.

Doubling time Time taken for a population to double in size

Population projection Estimates of total size or composition of populations in the future based on
current trends in fertility and mortality.

Ageing population This occurs when the median age of a country increases due to rising life
expectancy and/or declining fertility rates.
Youthful population This refers to a population where there is a higher proportion of young
people due to high birth rates and infant and child mortality rates are
reducing as a result of better nutrition, education and medical care. The
median age of a country decreases.

Dependency ratio A measure to help compare the number of dependents (those not
economically active), aged zero to 14 and over the age of 65, to the total
population, aged 15 to 64 (the working population which will support the
dependent population)

Population momentum Population growth at the national level that would occur even with a decline
in fertility rates. This is because of the time lag as younger generations move
into the fertile age bracket.

Carrying capacity The maximum number of individuals that a given environment can support
with the resources available and without detrimental effects.

Globalisation The variety of accelerating ways in which places and people have become
connected with one another as part of a complicated global system

Newly Industrialising These are countries which have experienced rapid industrial, social and
Countries economic growth since 1960. There are many different categories of NICs, all
showing rapid economic growth or potential for rapid growth.

See economic classification definitions below

Unit 1 - Changing population

Introduction to 4P and 2S (Key IB Geography concepts)

→ Places
● Can be identified at a variety of scales - from local territories or locations to national or
state levels
● Can be compared according to their cultural or physical diversity or disparities in wealth
or resource endowment / funding / financing

→ Processes
● Human or physical mechanisms of change
○ Examples include migration (human process) or erosion (physical process)
● Operate on varying timescales

→ Power
● Ability to influence and affect change or equilibrium at different scales
● Vested in citizens, governments, institutions and other players
● Vested in physical processes in the natural world
● Equity and security, both environmental and economic, can be gained or lost as a result
of power-based forces
 → Possibilities
● Alternative events, futures and outcomes that geographers can model, project or predict
with varying degrees of certainty
● The degree to which human and environmental systems are sustainable and resilient
and can adapt or change

→ Scale
● Places can be identified by a variety of geographic scales
○ Local
○ National / State
○ Regional
○ Global

→ Spatial interactions
● Flows, movements or exchanges that link places together
● Interactions (such as migration) that may lead to two places becoming interdependent
on one another

Introduction to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG)

● Offer a useful lens through which to examine significant global issues
● At the core of the IB Geography curriculum

→ Background: the predecessor, the MDGs

● 1990s → significant decrease in the amount of aid rich countries were giving to the poor,
hence the rate of global acute poverty rose greatly
● Poverty reduction thus became a priority of the UN and it was the focus for multiple
conventions
● After discussions with numerous organisations, the UN set out its goals for the 21st
century, the 8 Millennium Development Goals
● The MDGs aimed to focus the work of development agencies on a limited number of
global issues
● The idea was to concentrate effort on specific areas which were thought to be the most
successful after the implementation of the MDGs
● It was hoped that major donors (ie. rich countries and companies) would be willing to
donate more after seeing the benefits of the aid provided through the MDG schemes

→ Criticism of the MDGs

● Seen as way too narrow in scope and too modest in ambition
● Failed to tackle gender inequality, especially violence against women
● Statistical data about the progress of the MDGs was weak and mostly inaccurate as
many of the countries lacked funding and manpower to gather reliable data

→ Implementation of the UN SDG

● A huge survey was sent out to people around the world asking them to vote on
significant global issues they thought had to be tackled
● In 2015, the UN called on all stakeholders, including governments, parliaments, UN
agencies, NGOs, local authorities, indigenous people, business, private sector and the
scientific and academic community to take positive action on the new 17 Sustainable
Development Goals
● Difference between MDG and SDG:
○ SDGs include all countries whole MDGs focused on select areas
○ Heavy focus on sustainable development for SDG, unlike MDG
○ Particular attention is paid in the SDG to global partnership and the creation of
peace and effective institutions, much unlike the MDG
○ SDGs focus on lots more issues than the MDGs did, especially climate action,
inequality, sustainable consumption and production and industrialisation
Changing Global Population
→ Patterns of global population change between 1950 and 2050:
● Global urban population has increased from 746 million in 1950 to 4.1 billion in 2017
● Total population predicted to reach 8.6 billion by 2030 and 9.8 billion in 2050
● Nigeria is predicted to surpass the United States and become the third most populated
country by 2050
● Population growth will be concentrated within India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of
the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of
America, Uganda and Indonesia
● The populations of 26 African countries and projected to expand to twice their size
● The proportion of people aged 60 and above is predicted to more than double by 2050
→ Why are cities found where they are?
● USA: Towns are usually not more than 8km away from each other
○ WHY?
■ Most towns were established before the USA was founded, which meant
that it wasn’t particularly urbanised or industrialised
■ No cars, so people could not travel far distances
■ 5-mile radius → enough for people to comfortably walk and have time to
buy and sell goods
○ Towns merge to form cities - more high order goods and services → larger
sphere of influence; lower order goods → smaller sphere of influence (less
people needed to sustain)
● SITE: Water / coast / river
○ Oceans have always connected the world - no other means of transport that is
efficient and can carry such large amounts of goods; port
○ 6/10 of European cities are within 100 miles from coasts
○ 14/15 largest cities in the world are close to large water bodies
● SITE: Oil
○ Especially relevant for Middle East
○ Large cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi are located near large oil reserves →
economic opportunities
● SITE: Mountains
○ Don’t always have a uniform effect on cities; can sometimes hinder development
due to rough terrain
○ Cities that are elevated have protection eg. Addis Ababa and Bogota
○ Ancient cities were near mountains because of defence
○ Resources: coal, silver, gold and other deposits usually found in mountainous
regions → economic opportunities
● LOCATION: the vast majority of cities with populations of more than 2 million are in the
northern hemisphere (above the equator)
○ One theory (not necessarily reliable) that explains this: wider countries
(especially in Europe and Asia) are better developed because there is less
differentiation in climate and weather; South America and Africa are taller so
there is a wider difference in climate
○ Majority of countries in northern hemisphere are more developed because they
are closer to Europe (European empires were incredibly developed so countries
near them benefited from trade)
 Population distribution and density

Describe the pattern of population distribution globally [3]

● There is an unequal distribution of population globally
● In Asia, the largest populations appear to be in China and India
○ In China, the population density is highest around coastal areas
● In Africa, most of the population is concentrated in the east and west, which is south of
the Saharan desert
○ Eastern population of Africa is clustered around the Nile River, an important
water source
● North America’s population is concentrated in the south east

Global patterns
On a global scale:
● 75% of the population live within 1,000km of the sea
● 85% live in areas less than 500m high
● 85% live between latitudes 68°N and 20°N
● Less than 10% live in the southern hemisphere

Most favoured locations are:

● Fertile valleys e.g. Nile
● Places with a regular supply of water, such as in temperate climates
● A climate that is not too extreme
 ● Places with good communications

Population distribution by continent

Maps are from https://worldpopulationhistory.org/map/2020/mercator/1/96/61/ (set to 2020
population)

South America

● Population density is most concentrated along the coastline, especially towards the
Northeast and Northwest areas.
● Sparsely populated in the Amazon rainforest area (see map on right)
● Densely populated along Andes mountain range (see map on right)

North America
● Population density is most concentrated towards the South part of the continent.
● Higher density along coastline
 ● Sparsely populated along Rocky Mountains area and Great Plains (flat lands where
agriculture mostly is)
● Densely populated along Great Lakes Basin
● Densely populated along Sierra Nevada mountain range
○ Mining and tourism

Africa

● Most of the continent is densely populated

 ● Northern area is extremely sparsely populated because of the location of Sahara desert
● Sparsely populated around Kalahari desert
● Densely populated along Nile River basin and other major rivers

Europe
 ● Lowest population density in the Nordic regions (Norway, Finland, Iceland, Sweden with
the exception of Denmark) and Ukraine, Russia
● More densely populated in coastal regions in North and South of Europe
● Low population density in mountain regions of Spain (Iberian, Sierra Nevada)

Asia (ignore northeastern Africa in the map)

 ● Population density is greatest in India and east of China, as well as Southeast Asia
● Sparsely populated in central and north Asia
● Sparsely populated in Gobi Desert area

Oceania
 ● Sparsely populated
● Population mostly located along coastline
● Most of the population located along the Murray Darling river basin
● Sparsely populated in desert areas (especially central Australia, e.g. the Great Victoria
Desert, Tanami Desert, Gibson Desert)

Factors affecting population distribution

Physical:
● Accessibility of areas - coasts, gentle slopes vs. mountainous and inner regions
● Climate → Low rainfall, drier conditions and higher temperatures = sparser population
● Natural disaster frequency
● Altitude and relief
● Accessibility to natural resources
● Access to water supply
● Fertile soil for agriculture
Human:
● Culture - free of discrimination
● Accessibility to healthcare
● Open economies
● Government policies
● Better education
● Higher quality of infrastructure development
● Investment in technology
● Strong/non corrupt governments
● Communication
● Job opportunities
● Inequality- Income, land ownership
● Accessibility- trade
● Crime rates
● War/ terrorism

Case study: China’s population and wealth distribution

Place:
● China is an upper middle income country as per the World Bank classification by income
● Population – 1.379 billion
● Population density – 142.2 per square km, but the population distribution is uneven.

● Unevenly distributed population

○ Greatest contrast between the Eastern side of the Heihe-Tengchong line and the
Western side
○ Western side- sparsely populated- Due to extremely high altitude areas,
mountains and deserts
● 94% of the population lives East of the Heihe-Tengchong line on 36% of land area
○ This is an imaginary line that splits China into 2 parts, roughly equal in size
 ■ The parts are no longer equal in size because the west has 64% land area
while the east has 36%. The east used to include Mongolia, hence the
notion that the parts were equal in size
○ It was devised to depict the uneven population distribution in China
● Exceptionally high population densities- Yangtze delta, Pearl River delta, Chengdu Plain
of the Western Sichuan Basin
○ Most high density areas near alluvial plains where intensive agriculture is
centered

Human influence on population density:

Positive relationship between population density and transport networks

● The east of China has a high population density and the highest degree of transport
network development
● In the west of China where it is more sparsely populated as compared to the east, there
is a slightly higher population density around important transport links
● Shows that people are attracted to live near transport networks

Map of GDP per province

To an extent, there is a relationship between population distribution and income
- More densely populated provinces in east / southeast of China have higher GDP per
capita
- eg. Shanghai and Jiangsu are the most densely populated areas in China and also have
the highest GDP per capita
- Some anomalies, eg. Inner Mongolia is very sparsely populated but has relatively high
GDP per capita
- Other anomalies eg. Guangxi and Jiangxi are very densely populated but have low GDP
per capita

Physical features contributing to population distribution

 ● The western side of China is sparsely populated
○ Due to the extremely high Northern part of Tibet
○ Sandy wastes of the central Tarim
○ Junggar sedimentary basin in Xinjiang
○ Barren deserts and mountains east of Lop Nur
● In these areas, there is also a lack of transport links, making it hard for people to get
around
○ To manage this, the government has constructed new railways and highways to
traverse the wasteland

● Most densely populated areas include the Yangtze river valley, Sichuan Basin and Pearl
River Delta
○ Reliable water sources
○ Alluvium- Fertile soil for agricultural activity

Internal migration:

Patterns:
● Since 1978, 160 million people went from rural to urban areas- Largest population
movement in history
● Mostly from the poorest provinces- Sichuan, Anhui, Guizhou
● More than 10 million migrated out of their home province between 1990 and 1995
● Another 32 million from 1995 to 2000
● Migration made up nearly 20% of China’s economic growth
● Shenzhen- a few thousand in 1978 to a city with 12 million in 2010
○ Will hit 15 million by 2020
● Exacerbated the uneven population distribution in China- Enormous influxes to the
urban parts of Eastern China, and further depleting the Western population

Reasons for internal migration:

● Rural incomes were less than 40% of urban incomes

● Factories opened- farmers could make more money in a month than in a year of growing
rice
● In 1980, farmers lived on less than $2 a day in the poorest provinces- Anhui, Guizhou
● Cases of rural unrest due to pay inequality
● Factories are starting to setup inland as coastal land prices increase- more wealth to
rural areas

Hukou system:

● A system of household registration used in mainland China

● Under this system, Chinese citizens are categorised as nongmin 农民 (rural dwellers) or
shimin 市民 (city dwellers)
 ○ This registration is tied to the place where a person was born
○ Limits where in China someone is allowed to live - critics argue that this
institutionalises inequality
● System was used as a way to regulate access to jobs and public welfare benefits
● Nongmin who move to cities are free to work and study, but do not enjoy welfare
benefits like healthcare, education and unemployment insurance in these cities. This is
because these nongmin are not officially registered as permanent residents in the cities
they live, work or study in.
● Parents who are internal migrants who do not have local hukou registrations in the cities
they live in must bring their children to their hometowns to be registered at birth
● Internal migrant children who do not have local hukou registrations in the cities they live
in cannot attend public schools there - they must attend private schools or return to
their parents’ hometowns to attend public school
● Many internal migrant workers return to their hometowns, where they will enjoy
welfare benefits, unlike the big cities they used to live and work in

Impacts of internal migration in China

Positive impacts Negative impacts

China’s economy grew rapidly Rural migrants experienced discrimination

Rural dwellers had the opportunity to escape Rural migrants had to do dangerous and
poverty in the countryside demeaning jobs that the urban dwellers did
not want to do

Pathway for upward social mobility
Hukou system made it difficult for rural
migrants to bring their family with them to
urban areas
-More than 61 million children children left
behind in China’s villages

Hukou system also does not provide welfare

benefits, sometimes making the cost of living
for migrants very high

Brain gain Brain drain

Economic classifications

Term Definition

MEDCs More economically developed countries

LEDCs Less economically developed countries

High Income Countries World Bank classification of countries with an average income per capita of
(HICs) US$12,236 or more. Income is measured as Gross National Income. e.g. Norway,
UK, Australia

Upper Middle Income World Bank classification of countries with an average income per capita of
Countries (uMICs) US$3,956 - US$12,235. Income is measured as Gross National Income. e.g. Brazil,
South Africa, Mexico, Thailand

Lower Middle Income World Bank classification of countries with an average income per capita of
Countries (lMICs) US$1,006-US$3,955. Income is measured as Gross National Income. e.g.
Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia

Low Income Countries World Bank classification of countries with an average income per capita of
US$1,005 or less. Income is measured as Gross National Income. e.g Ethiopia or
South Sudan

NICs These are countries which have experienced rapid industrial, social and
economic growth since 1960. There are many different categories of NICs, all
showing rapid economic growth or potential for rapid growth.

First World Developed, capitalist, industrial countries - roughly a bloc of countries aligned
with the US after WWII. Term not used commonly anymore

Second World Referring to the former communist-socialist, industrial states controlled by the
state - roughly those countries under the influence of the Union of Society
Socialist Republic (USSR). Present day - Russia, Eastern Europe, China
Term not used commonly anymore

Third World Referring now to the poor and underdeveloped nations in Asia, Africa and Latin
America. Originally coined to refer to those countries not aligned with the US
and USSR and their allies./satellites Term not commonly used anymore

Emerging economies Nations whose economies are progressing towards becoming more advanced,
usually through rapid growth and industrialisation. These are roughly
synonymous with MIC countries. Examples include Brazil, China, India, Mexico,
Indonesia, Nigeria and South Africa

G7/G8 A group of the world's wealthiest and most powerful countries. Representing
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the UK and the USA.

BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa - a group of NICs (countries experiencing
rapid industrial, social and economic growth since 1960.)

CIVETS Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa - a group of NICs
(countries experiencing rapid industrial, social and economic growth since 1960.)
Next Eleven (N11) Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines,
Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam - countries with potentially the fastest growing
economies in the 21st century

MINT Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - a group of NICs (countries experiencing
rapid industrial, social and economic growth since 1960.)

Brandt Line A visual depiction of the North-South divide between economies, based on GDP
per capita. This was proposed by Willy Brandt in the 1980s

North-South Divide The increasing inequality in levels of development between the North and the
South or between HICs (High Income Countries) and LICs (Low Income
Countries).

Centrally Planned Socialist countries under strict government control. In general living standards
Economies (CPEs) could be high, though freedom of speech limited e.g. Cuba, North Korea

Economic development and population distribution

The world by income (GNI per capita)

Describe the global population of economic development [4]

● The global distribution of GNI per capita is uneven
● The majority of low income and lower middle income countries are located in Africa and
South Asia
○ Exceptions include Seychelles, a high income country
 ● The majority of high income and higher middle income countries are located in North
America, South America and Europe
○ One exception in South America is Bolivia, as it belongs to the lower middle
income category
○ Exceptions in Europe are Ukraine and Kosovo, which belong to the lower middle
income category
● *Answers not limited to these

World Systems Analysis

● A theory which states that all countries are part of the capitalist world system
○ This is because economic growth is largely facilitated by the capitalist world
system
● A country’s level of development determines its location within the global economy
which is divided into a core, semi-periphery and periphery
○ The more developed countries (most HICs) are part of the core
○ MICs, which are usually rapidly developing, belong in the semi-periphery
○ LICs, which have a small share of global wealth, are in the periphery
■ Reinforces the dominance of the core countries
● 3 sectors
○ Core: higher skill and capital-intensive production
○ Periphery and semi-periphery: low skill and labour-intensive production +
extraction of raw materials
● For a country to be in the core, it usually needs to have the following (not limited to
these):
○ Access to a large quantity of a raw material
○ Cheap labour
○ Huge profits from direct capital investments (usually in periphery /
semi-periphery countries they have stakes in → POWER: TNCs usually establish
operations in these places)
○ A market for exports (home and foreign)
○ Skilled professional labour through migration of these people from non-core to
core
● Certain countries can become the world hegemon (a supreme leader) → currently seen
by economists as the US
● The system is fluid, with all countries being able to move in theory - individual states can
change status over time
● All countries are interdependent and interact with each other, though the balance of
power lies with the core; and the nature of relationships has (historically) been
exploitative
 ○ Example is how the colonial (Western) powers exploited South American, African
and Asian countries for their economic gain

Applications:
● Useful for understanding world history, especially with regard to the motives behind the
core countries’ imperialism and colonialism
○ Links to exploitation of periphery and semi-periphery nations by core countries
● Also important to understand foreign relations
○ Eg. Aid provided by one country to others after natural disasters
○ Eg. economic activity in other countries like US involvement in Central American
countries

Case study: South Africa

Location:
● uMIC according to the World Bank
● Population: 57 million
● Uneven population distribution and density:
Internal migration
● Until 1948 (start of Apartheid), voluntary migration for economic opportunities
● Forced migration during Apartheid era
● Voluntary migration following the collapse of Apartheid
○ APARTHEID REGIME:
■ A system of legislation that upheld segregationist policies against
non-white citizens of South Africa
■ The allwhite government (National party) enforced existing policies of
racial segregation
■ Nonwhite South Africans (a majority of the population) were made to use
separate public facilities and live in separate areas from the white South
Africans
■ Many black people moved from the countryside to cities to work as
migrant labourers in the gold and diamond mines
■ Between 1948 and 1994, the white National Party set up the apartheid
policy
● 4 million black people were forcibly removed from “white” areas
and relocated to “homelands”
○ Homelands: any of ten partially self-governing areas in
South Africa designated for particular indigenous African
peoples under the former policy of apartheid.
 ○ Severe restrictions on black people entering “white”
towns, under a policy “influx control”
○ END OF APARTHEID - WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THEN?
■ Since the end of the apartheid era, many black people have migrated to
large cities in terms of work
■ However, poverty forces many to live in poor quality housing at the edge
of towns
● Urban population- 65% in 2015
● 2.4 million black people have left white-owned commercial farms
between 1994 and 2004 to go to nearby towns
■ Feature of migration: Circular migration - worker moves repeatedly
between home and host areas
● Go to urban areas to work, but as housing is too expensive there,
will return to their houses
■ Majority of blacks in cities live in townships, which are shanty towns with
poor living conditions

Physical reasons for uneven population distribution

 - North and west of South Africa sparsely
populated → Kalahari desert (arid)
- Coastal areas (in the eastern cape) of
Durban, Port Elizabeth and Cape Town
more densely populated
- concentration of minerals in the
east
- Johannesburg and Pretoria densely
populated due to proximity to river(s)

GDP distribution

● Uneven distribution of GDP

● Highest GDP is in Gauteng province, where Johannesburg (largest South African city is
located), followed by the Western Cape where Cape Town is located
● Lowest GDP in the Eastern Cape
● Central South Africa has mid-range GDP
Measures of economic development using income
Definitions
● GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - a monetary measure of the market value of all the final
goods and services produced in a specific time period
○ Provides an economic snapshot of a country, used to estimate the size of an
economy and growth rate
○ Can be calculated in 3 ways - Expenditures, production, incomes
● GNP (Gross National Product) - Total domestic and foreign output claimed by residents
of a country
○ GDP + incomes earned by foreign residents - income earned in the domestic
economy by nonresidents
○ Different from GDP as it also takes into account net income receipts from abroad
● PPP (Purchasing Power Parity)- A measurement of prices in different countries that uses
the prices of specific goods to compare the absolute purchasing power of the countries'
currencies.
○ An economic theory that allows the comparison of the purchasing power of
various world currencies to one another.
○ A theoretical exchange rate that allows you to buy the same amount of goods
and services in every country.
○ Takes into account the cost of a typical ‘basket of goods’ in a country
○ In low-income countries goods often cost less, meaning that wages go further
than might be expected in a high-income country
● GNI (Gross National Income) - refers to the sum of a nation’s GDP and the net income it
receives from overseas investments
○ The World Bank uses GNI per capita – correlates with other indicators of
development such as life expectancy
○ There might be slight variations between GNI and GDP. For example, GNI might
be higher than GDP if a country receives large amounts of foreign aid (e.g. East
Timor)
Migration

Megacity growth
● The number of megacities (cities with 10 million or more people) is growing
● Megacities grow due to rural-urban migration (centripetal) and natural population
increase (young adult population, at childbearing age)
● Megacity growth leads to disparities in how a nation’s population is distributed
● Megacity growth contributes to the uneven distribution of resources and wealth in a
country
○ Example - China and the location of its megacities, its wealth and population
distribution
○ Megacities in LICs and MICs have grown rapidly, with implications for housing
and infrastructure needs
○ Megacities in HICs are growing slowly - mainly linked to international migration

Population change and demographic transition

Demographic transition - what is it?
● Theory and phenomenon which refers to the historical shift from high BR and mortality
rate in societies with minimal education, technology and economic development, to low
BR and mortality rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic
growth
● Includes the stages as countries transition from the first scenario to the next one
 Demographic Transition Model
● The DTM shows general changes in birth and death rates over time / economic
development of a country
● Y-axis shows birth and death rates
● X-axis shows Time or degree of economic development

Criticisms:
● Only based on 3 countries (all European → eurocentric)
● Does not take migration into consideration
● Lack of a broader look at death rates

Birth rate vs. Fertility rate

- FR: Number of births per 1000 women of childbearing age (15-44 years)
- BR: Number of live births per 1000 women in the total population
Fertility:
● The fertility rate is decreasing , from 3.2 to 2.5 globally
● The fertility rate decrease in Sub-Saharan Africa is occurring later and at a slower pace
○ May take until 2029 for fertility rates to drop from 6 (1995) to 4
○ Still, most countries that witnessed a sharp decline in fertility are in Sub-Saharan
Africa
● Fertility rates will continue to decline, to 1.9 in 2100
○ In Sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates will fall to 2.1
● 49% of all women of reproductive age use contraception, compared to 42% in 1990

Population pyramids
● Represents internal distribution of populations

Dependency ratio:
● A measure to to help compare the number of dependents who are not economically
active (15 and under, 65 and up) to the working age population
○ Gives number of dependents to 100 people

Population momentum:
● Population momentum refers to the tendency of a population to grow when
replacement level fertility (normally 2.1) is reached
● Population momentum refers to population growth/decline which continues despite
fertility rates falling/increasing
 ● As large group of young population move through the population structure, they
reproduce at different levels
● As they move beyond child bearing age, momentum will decrease and population with
stabilise

Case Study: UK population changes

Locational information:
● North-Western European island nation
● Comprised of constituent countries: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
● Capital - London
● 66.7 million population
● 40 years - average age
● Very high development index

Population structure:
● Birth rates and death rates fell in the UK during the twentieth century, continuing a
trend that dates even further back to the early 1700s.
● Two important phases of population change stand out during the 1900s

1. Before 1970s:
● Population still growing from natural increase
● Death rate had been falling since the 1800s due to major improvements in food supply,
health and hygiene
● Birth rate same low level as death rate due to the end of a post WW2 ‘baby boom’
○ Bringing natural increase largely to a halt
● Population grew from 38 million to 55 million between 1901 and 1971

2. Since the 1970s:

● Total population increases more slowly
○ Mostly due to immigration + increased life expectancy
● Birth rates starting to slowly increase again due to large numbers of migrant women of
child bearing age
○ ⅓ of new births are registered under foreign nationals
● Older women who postponed having children are managing to successfully have
children at a larger age due to improved fertility treatments
● Total population grew from 55 million to 65 million between 1971 and 2017
Case study: Bangladesh population changes
Locational information:
● South Asian country
● East of India
● Capital - Dhakka
● Lush greenery and many waterways
● 161.4 million population
● 26.7 - average age
● Reached classification as a lower-middle income country in 2015

- 1990—2010: life expectancy rose by 10 years (59-69)

- Due to improved healthcare and reduced infant mortality
- Modern agricultural techniques and the green revolution
- UK reached this figure in 1949

Changes:
● Improved healthcare and reduced infant mortality - helped to increase life expectancy.
● Modern agricultural techniques, green evolution — reduce frequency of famines
● Increase in proportion of girls in school — women in the workforce
● 1975-2010: 8% to 60% of contraceptive use
○ Government employees and volunteers work tirelessly to distribute free
contraceptive pills and advice across the country
● Family planning, education and changing social attitudes have empowered women
○ Follow careers and delay having children

Consequence
● Plummet of fertility rate from 6.8—2.1 (1975-2016)
● Slightly above replacement level

Demographic dividend
● UNFPA definition: economic growth potential that can result from changes to a
population’s age structure to have a larger percentage of economically active individuals
● The accelerated economic growth that can happen when a population has many
economically active people
● Governments ensure that these economically active people are empowered, educated
and employed
● Population structure: the dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working
age population - When the 15-65 group grows and birth rates fall
 ○ With more workers and fewer young and old dependents to support, this opens
up a window of opportunity for a country to accelerate economic growth
■ Taxation- $ for government investment
○ This is known as the demographic dividend
● Example:
○ 1960: more than 40% of Thailand’s population was under the age of 15
○ Women had an average of 6 children
○ With increased investments in health child survival improved, people desired
smaller families and increased access to family planning contributed to a rapid
decline in the fertility rate
○ 1990s: women had an average of 2 children → much smaller population of
young dependents and much larger population of economically active people
○ With better quality / access to education and increasing employment
opportunities, economic growth accelerated
● How to harness an economic boom for an economy? How to have a greater chance for
demographic dividend?
○ 3 key areas of investment
■ Empowerment
● Rights and freedom to define their lives (suffrage)
● Ability to pursue an education and join the workforce to earn
money
● The right to decide who and when to marry & if / when to have
children - to find the balance between family and working life
● Free from unintended pregnancies - access to contraceptives /
abortions as well as fewer instances of sexual assault
● High quality health services for young people so they can be at the
forefront of the workforce
■ Education
● Skills and training for 21st century jobs
● Governments and private sector crucial in increasing the quality of
education and promoting job growth
■ Employment
● Political climate for industrial and business investment must be
welcoming
● Reliable business regulations and adequate power supply
● Skilled workforce vital
● Quantity and quality of jobs - good working conditions and fair
wages, including for women
■ Good governance
 ● No corruption
● Ensures that all funds gained are used to invest in the country
● Stability- Will attract more investors
● The challenges of attaining a demographic dividend
○ Fertility must decline significantly
■ In many LICs and MICs, access to abortions, contraceptives and family
planning is poor
■ Some countries with largely agrarian populations need many children to
support their parents with farming
■ The populations of the countries experiencing these are rapidly increasing
- making demographic dividend difficult to attain
○ Huge number of jobs must be created to stimulate economic growth
■ Countries need to industrialise - decrease the agrarian population and
increase the industrial population
■ Poor economies will have fewer jobs

Case Study: India

India’s Demographic Dividend
● While many Asian countries are ageing, half of
India’s 1.2 billion population is under the age of 26
○ This means that a large percentage of the
population will soon enter the workforce and create a
demographic dividend
● By 2020, it is forecast to be the youngest country
in the world, with a median age of 29
○ ‘By mid-century India’s potential
workforce will grow from 885 million to 1.12 billion’.
● Dependency ratio has fallen from 0.6 to 0.4 in
previous years
○ DR is falling because FR is falling, which
means that women can enter the workforce without
having to look after children

Opportunities presented
● Growing pool of buyers for goods and services, and a growing middle class
● A candidate to replicate China’s success in manufacturing
● Growing workforce: Helps the economy, gives business access to people that are young
and educated
 ○ Labour costs lower than China’s, so India is a more ideal location for company
operations
○ cost of labour in China 4 times higher than in India
● Boom in Indian consumer spending - potential for businesses to incorporate India into
manufacturing strategies
○ From 2006 to 2011 consumer spending almost doubled up to $1 trillion USD and
is still continuing to grow.
● 250 million set to join India’s workforce by 2030
○ Big chunk shifts into workforce- Increase in disposable incomes and conspicuous
consumption
● India will become increasingly manufacture-centric
○ General Motors- $1 billion investment
○ Attract foreign investors

Factors that could prevent India from making the most of its young population:
● Underdevelopment of a manufacturing sector, overreliance on development through IT
sector
○ IT only accounts for 0.4% of the workforce, so the development of a
labor-intensive manufacturing sector is crucial
○ Historically, manufacturing- The only sector capable of creating enough jobs to
absorb a country’s rising workforce, while generating high productivity gains
● A more favourable investment climate is required
● Improved education is also needed
○ Vocational training
● Basic services should be improved- Healthcare, water, electricity, shelter
● Literacy rate is only 60%, which will affect one’s chances of being a skilled worker /
employee in the primary economic sector
○ Contribution to economic growth could be limited

Impacts on India
● Take advantage of economic growth to improve standard of education and living
● India seen as an economic hub, which will attract foreign investment and further
stimulate economic growth
● More money can be invested in various sectors of Indian society eg. education,
economic infrastructure, obviation of poverty
Forced migration
Definition: “a general term that refers to the movements of refugees and internally displaced
people (those displaced by conflicts) as well as people displaced by natural or environmental
disasters, chemical or nuclear disasters, famine or development projects”

Types of forced migration

Conflict-induced
This includes people who are forced to move due to armed conflict such as civil war, violence or
persecution on the basis of their nationality, race, religion, political opinion or social group.

Examples of conflict-induced displacement are:

● Salvadoran civil war- Faced forced displacement as a result as a result of conflict, persecution,
lower quality of life
○ 1 in 4 Salvadorans were displaced
● Persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar

People who flee due to conflict can be internally displaced persons (if they don’t cross a border into
another country to seek refuge) or refugees / asylum seekers (those who have left their country of origin
in search of protection from another country)

Development-induced
This includes people who are forced to move as a result of large-scale infrastructure projects such as
dams, roads, ports, airports and urban redevelopment, mining and deforestation as well as the
introduction of conservation parks.

Examples of development-induced displacement are:

● 3 Gorges Dam in China - Displaced over 1.4 million people
● Sardar Sarovar Dam in India - Displaced over 40,000 people
● Ahafo Mine in Ghana - Open pit mine which displacement 10,000 in 2005 and 2006, the mining
company denied them compensation for loss of land

Disaster-induced displacement
This includes people displaced by natural hazard events (floods, volcanoes, landslides and earthquakes),
environmental change (deforestation, desertification, land degradation and global warming) and
human-made disasters (industrial accidents, and the release of radiation)

Examples of disaster-induced displacement are:

● Malawi- Caused by tropical cyclone Idai
● Haiti earthquake- 60,000 Haitians now live and work in the US
○ Report by Cornell University- events prompted by climate change such as drought and
flooding could account for 1.4 billion migrants by 2060

Forced migration key terminology

Refugees Asylum seekers

According to the 1951 UN Convention Relating to the An asylum seeker is a person who has left their
Status of Refugees, a refugee is a “person residing country of origin in search of protection in another
outside his or her country of nationality, who is country, under the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, but
unable or unwilling to return because of a whose claim for refugee status has not been decided.
well-founded fear of persecution on account of race,
religion, nationality, membership in a political social
group or political opinion”

Recognised under the 1951 convention as a refugee

Not every asylum seeker will be ultimately recognised as a refugee.

BUT every refugee is initially an asylum seeker.

Main difference between refugee and asylum seeker:

- Refugees are recognised under the UN convention
- Asylum seekers have filed claims to be recognised as refugees, but their refugee status is still
undecided
Internally displaced persons (IDPs) → Development displacees
conflict-induced forced migration These are people compelled to move as a result of
According to the UN, IDPs are groups of people who policies and projects to promote development.
have been “forced to flee their home suddenly or
unexpectedly in large numbers, as a result of armed
conflict, internal strife, systematic violations of
human rights or natural man-made disasters, and
who are within the territory of their own country.”
Environmental and disaster displacees Smuggled people
These people are sometimes referred to as Smuggled people are moved illegally for profit. They
environmental refugees or disaster refugees may include those who have been forcibly displaced
as well as those who have left their homes in search
[TO READ: Castles (2002) Environmental change and of a better standard of living
forced migration – making sense of the debate]
[LINK to trafficking in 1.3.3]
Trafficked people
These are people moved by deception or coercion for the purpose of exploitation and profit

[LINK to trafficking in 1.3.3]

Study the graph above. Describe the pattern of forcibly displaced people in the world over time
(1989-2015)

● From 1989 to 2015, there has been a general increase in forcibly displaced people.
○ An increase in all 3 types, internally displaced, refugees and asylum seekers
● When conflict occurs, it alters the general trend of increase/ decrease in the number of forcibly
displaced
● E.g. Rwandan Genocide- Following the 5 years before the Rwandan Genocide, the number of
those forcibly displaced was on an increasing trend. After the Rwandan Genocide, the number
began to decrease.
○ The war in Afghanistan also caused a decrease, and the Syrian Civil War caused an
increase

Case study: Syria

Causes of Syrian Civil War:

Political The civil war started in Mar 2011 as a continuation of the Arab Spring (AS was the catalyst of
the SCW)
- Arab Spring: a series of anti-government protests in the Arab world in the 2010s,
beginning in Tunisia in response to low standards of living and oppressive leadership
- Later spread to 5 other countries, including Syria
- Many Syrians were unhappy with President Bashaar Al-Assad’s regime due to
widespread unemployment, rampant corruption and a lack of political
freedom. They started to stage protests
- The government responded with force in an attempt to quash the
demonstrations. Hundreds were killed and brutally tortured, which inflamed
public resentment
- Defectors from the Syrian military established the Free Syrian Army, a rebel
group with aims to overthrow Al-Assad and his government
- The unrest escalated and Syria descended into civil war

Socio-economic Long-term unemployment and rampant corruption fuelled public resentment towards
 al-Assad’s leadership.

Religious differences
- The majority of the Syrian population are Sunni Muslims
- Syrian government is dominated by members of the Alawi Muslim (a sect within Shia
Islam)
- These religious differences partially contributed to the political polarisation in
Syria

Environmental Global warming and food shortages

- Severe drought from 2007 to 2010, resulting in 1.5 million climate refugees (internally
displaced) who migrated from rural areas to urban cities
- This exacerbated poverty in urban areas as there was an increasing demand for
resources and services - too little for big population
- Also increased social unrest
- People were frustrated at the government’s minimal action to address the problem

Who has power in the situation?

Local National Regional International

Ordinary Syrians
protesting against
Al-Assad’s regime
Defectors of the Syrian military and rebel groups
Al-Assad and his military Governments of Iran, Iraq Russia plays a large
forces and Lebanon have military role, supporting
supported Assad the al-Assad regime (main
(Iran, Iraq and Lebanon ally)
have Shia Muslim
majorities - they don’t see Russia has military bases
eye to eye with the Sunni in Syria. Entered the war
Muslims, who are the because al-Assad is
opposers of al-Assad’s pro-Russian
leadership in this case)
Kurdish forces (majority Sunni-majority country US also plays a large
Sunni Muslims who governments like Turkey, military role, supporting
oppose Al-Assad because Qatar and Saudi Arabia the anti-al-Assad rebel
he’s a Shia Muslim) support their fellow Sunni groups
Muslim rebels, who are
Kurds also fight against working to overthrow
al-Assad because they al-Assad’s government
want land to establish
their own country
(Kurdistan) but al-Assad
refuses to do so
ISIS (majority Sunni Muslims) so they fight against UK and France provide
al-Assad assistance to rebel groups
but they mainly provide
Very complicated: ISIS and the US are enemies in Iraq, so “non-lethal assistance”
they fight against each other in Iraq. But in Syria, since
they both oppose al-Assad, they don’t fight each other.
“The enemy of the enemy is my friend” principle.
UN Security Council has
led peace talks known as
the Geneva II process

Consequences:
Social
More than 465,000 have
been killed
Over 1 million injured
More than 6.5 million
internally displaced people
More than 5.5 million
refugees who have escaped
and crossed Syria’s borders
(Even if refugees escape to
other countries, there is no
guarantee that they will be
accepted because of
increasing xenophobia and
anti-refugee attitudes,
especially in Europe)
More than half of Syrians
have been displaced since
2011 - 55% uprooted from
their homes
13 million people are in
need of humanitarian
assistance, including 5.2
million in acute need
Limited access to healthcare
- 550+ attacks on medical
facilities and close to 900
medical personnel killed
Entire neighbourhoods have
been destroyed, rendering
people homeless
More than 2 million
children can’t go to school
(see economic impacts for
synthesis)
since 2014 but these have
yielded little results
This is because al-Assad is
unwilling to hold
negotiations with the
opposition
Political Economic Environmental Demographic
A large proportion of More than 2 million Many crops are not Dependency ratio
Syria’s rich cultural children don’t have being tended to increases because
heritage has been access to education - which can cause soil many economically
destroyed, with all 6 of unable to be equipped erosion and active adults are
its UNESCO sites having with the skills needed desertification migrating overseas
suffered significant for the workforce, so
damage they can’t earn a lot of Not enough people
money to look after elderly -
Political tension increase in demand
heightened and the Fighting has caused for healthcare
fighting has become damage to services; already
even more complicated infrastructure strained by the
- rebel groups don’t just attacks on medical
seek to overthrow Loss of economically facilities
al-Assad, they are also active workforce
pursuing their own (through fighting and Humanitarian crisis:
agendas migration as refugees) high IMR and low life
(such as the Kurds who will decrease the expectancy
want to gain more number of workers in
territory) the labour force --.
slow economic growth
Political tension with or even economic
neighbouring countries decline
accepting refugees - the
influx has been so
severe that many
(especially Turkey,
which holds more than
3.5 million) have said
that they are unable to
accept any more
Refugee camps have poor
conditions - lack of
sanitation, education etc

Places where Syrian migrants are going to:

● 3.7 million in Turkey (the largest refugee population in the world)
● Close to 1 million people in Lebanon
● Nearly 700,000 in Jordan
● 250,000 in Iraq
● 133,000 in Egypt
● Smaller numbers in North Africa (but in the tens of thousands)

● Many Syrians have sought asylum in European countries - the most popular are Germany, Sweden, Greece
and Hungary. Others include France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and Denmark

Case study: Bangladesh climate refugees

Impact of sea level change – projections (source: https://scied.ucar.edu/sea-level-change-bangladesh)

a) Causes of displacement
● Flooding in villages
○ Even after flood water subsidises, fields can become too salty for agriculture
■ Salt intrusion into groundwater
○ Buildings can be damaged
○ Lack of clean water
● Cyclone
○ Breaks the economic backbone of the people due to destruction caused
● Plausible for 1m rise in sea-level will occur, submerging a fifth of the country
○ Turning 30 million people into climate migrants
● Storm surges
● Depletion of groundwater- Supply demand gap of 500m a year

b) What are the consequences of internal displacement on people and places?

CONSEQUENCES on people – write down 4-5 examples of consequences on people’s lives
Social Political
 ● Increased vulnerability when people move - Most ● Climate refugees have no legal standing under
climate refugees do not have ample time to international law
prepare in advance, have to pack their belongings ○ No binding global agreement contains
and move in a short period of time provisions for them
● 400,000 people move to Dhaka every year- 70%
of Dhaka slum dwellers moved there fleeing
environmental shock
○ Poor living conditions
○ Slums expanding rapidly
● Not enough safe water to drink, lack of sanitation
facilities for people going to Dhaka

Environmental Economic
● Dhaka placed 3rd on a study of the most ● Work low paying jobs- Street sweepers, rickshaw
populous countries expected to be exposed to drivers, domestic workers in slums
coastal flooding by 2070
○ People that moved in order to escape
environmental crisis might still be met
with it
● Every city has a carrying capacity- risk of the cities
becoming over-burdened
● Dhaka- More than 15 million people packed into
325sq km radius, could double to 30 million
within 2 decades
● Dhaka is running dry- 90% of water is from
groundwater reserves, depleted by 3m a year
○ Supply-demand gap of 500m litres a
year
○ Long term groundwater depletion can
lead to flooding and an intrusion of salty
water into the supply
● To match its population growth, ponds and canals
have been concreted over for infrastructure
○ Monsoon rainbursts now lead to streets
being frequently submerged in
knee-high water

CONSEQUENCES on places – Dhaka and the rural, coastal areas losing people
Consequences on places Scale of the problem
● September 2017, Bangladesh government posted
● Farmers moving to city, increase in a set of statistics after weeks of torrential rain
unemployment ○ 8 million people in 32 districts affected
● Tax climate dependent activities in countries such by floods
as Rangpur, Dinajpur ○ 307000 in emergency shelters
● Change in population demographic due to large ○ 103855 houses destroyed
scale movement of people ○ 633792 houses partially damaged
○ Affects government investment in ○ 4636 schools flooded
certain sectors ○ Several acres of farmland flooded
● Agriculture is one of the largest industries in ● The number of people living in slums has
Bangladesh increased by 60% the last 17 years in Bangladesh
○ Farmers moving to the city = Loss of this ○ Mostly “climate refugees”
source of revenue ● Everyday, 2000 people move to Dhaka
 ○ Loss of cultivated land ● At least 400,000 people move to Dhaka every
○ Affects market and economy year
●
Receiving places:
● Pressure on providing housing and medical
resources
● Financial support for refugees
● Overcrowding of slums
● Cheap labour, fuels the economy

Dependency ratios
● The dependency ratio is a measure of the total dependents aged 0 to 14 and over the
age of 65, compared to the total population aged 15-64
○ Gives insight into the number of people not of working age, compared to those
of working age
○ Measures the pressure on the productive population
● High dependency ratio = large number of economic dependents : smaller number of
economically active people
● Implications of a high dependency ratio
○ Higher government spending on economic dependents
○ Potentially higher taxation on economically active
○ Too few economically active people in workforce
○ Pressure to raise the retirement age

Sex ratios:
→ Global trends
● Unequal sex ratio
● 105 boys to 100 girls
● In Asia / North Africa, the sex rate is more skewed than what would normally occur,
shows signs of prenatal gender selection
● China- Exponential increase in male birth.
○ In 1960, 106.3 males to 100 females
○ In 2010, 117 males to 100 females
● In countries with cultures that prioritise males, high instances of sex selected abortion,
unequal treatment and infanticide (not necessarily on purpose, but due to neglect, etc)

→Causes:
● Policies - Such as China’s One Child Policy and Singapore’s anti-natalist policy
 ● Sex selected abortion/ infanticide
● Boys are preferred as they can carry on the family name
○ Family and societal pressure
→Consequences
● Males struggling to find a spouse due to gender imbalance, e.g. China
● Could lead to trafficking

Ageing population
→ Causes
● Decrease in population growth at age groups 0-14
● Increased contraceptives
● Educational opportunities for women
● Decreasing fertility rates
● Anti natalist policies
● Increased life expectancy - Falling death rate
● Increased standard of living

→ Consequences
Adapted from May 2018 Paper 1
Negative:
● Governments must rethink economic and population policies
● Increasing number of elderly dependents, will more than double in the next 30 years
● Higher taxes
● Pro-natalist policies
● Retirement age raised
● Strained workforce - increased old-age dependency ratio
● Increased number of old age care homes and pressure on healthcare systems
● Lack of young workforce which is typically more innovative and has a better grasp of
modern technology
Positive:
● Grandparents can look after their children so parents need not spend money on
childcare services
● Economy has access to more experienced employees
● Less money spent on schooling, childcare and natal healthcare

Family size
→Global trends
● 49% of all women in reproductive age use contraception
○ Increase from 42% in 1990
 ● Decrease in global fertility rate, from 3.2 to 2.5
● Fertility rate will continue to decline to 1.9 by 2100

→Regional trends
● In Europe, less than 30% of households have children
● In Bulgaria and Germany, less than 20% of households have children

→Causes
● Increased use of contraception (Low)
● Increase in divorce rates (L)
● High cost of living (L)
● More people choosing to focus on their careers (L)
● Improved educational opportunities for women (L)
● Education for women (L)
● Culture/ religion (High)

→Sub-Saharan Africa
● Family sizes declining at slower rate
● Prominence of larger households
● Increase in dependent population
○ Pressure on working population
● More investment into education and healthcare
● Overcrowding

→Consequences of smaller family sizes

● Lower fertility = weaker workforce = weaker economy
● Ageing population
● More old dependents, pressure on working population
● Higher taxes
● Increased taxes and pressure

→ Youthful population: socioeconomic impacts

Adapted from Nov 2017 paper 1 markscheme
● Increased pressure on healthcare / education / food / housing / other resources
● Increased unemployment in the future
● Large and cheap future workforce
● Rise in crime rate
● Pressure on working population to support young and old / higher dependency ratio
● Youthful population is source of innovation
 ● Large tax base for the country
● Attractive for investors

Population policies - Demographic changes

Definition: A plan developed by a government to manage or control population size, growth,
distribution or composition. (They can also be designed to address issues such as gender
inequality or human trafficking.)

Case study: China’s One Child Policy - Anti-natalist policy

1. What is the OCP?

● A family and population planning policy of China.

● an attempt to curb the fast growing population in China
● The aim of the policy was to ensure that the population growth in China did not surpass
economic development and to resolve ecological imbalances and lack of resources that
were caused by an expeditiously expanding population.

2. Why was an OCP required and when was it implemented?

The People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949. Mao Zedong initially encouraged
population growth, seeing this as a strength for China. At the time, birth control and imports of
contraceptives were banned.

In 1958, the Communist Party of China under Mao, proposed the Great Leap Forward to make
China a modern industrialized state. Under a Five Year Plan, farming was collectivised and
labour-intensive industry was introduced, but this proved disastrous. The disruption to
agricultural production resulted in food supply falling behind population growth. In the 1960s, it
is estimated that famine and food shortages caused between 15 – 30 million deaths.

In the 1970s, China promoted population policies to encourage the reduction in number of
children born – “Later, Longer, Fewer” – referring to later marriages, longer gaps between
children and fewer children. These were voluntary.

In 1979, it was decided that the voluntary measures were not effective so a new set of tighter
rules was introduced – these became known as the One Child Policy.

3. Who did the OCP target? How was it enforced [focus on incentives/rewards and
deterrents/penalties]

Propaganda:
● Married couples were educated on birth control and given a “Certificate of Only Child
Birth”, which included registration for childcare, healthcare and primary schools.
● In the rural parts of China, propaganda such as “Plant more trees, have less children”
and “Raise more pigs, raise less children” were used and in other parts of China,
propaganda included “Develop economy, control population”.
 ○ However, later on it was decided that rural families could have 2 children to help
them with farming

Incentives for those who abided by the rules:

● A monthly stipend from the government
● special treatment when applying for jobs
● free water
● higher wages
● Tax breaks
● higher priority when applying for schools

Penalties:
● A loss of jobs and fines between five to ten times the annual disposable income of the
family.
● If they did not have sufficient funds to pay, things would be taken from their houses,
such as televisions, furniture, washing machines.
● These objects would be sold and the township would keep the proceeds.
● Sometimes, family planning officials climbed up to the roof and made holes in the roofs
of the houses and knocked down windows.
● Granny Police - elderly citizens in villages who were tasked with enforcing the OCP. They
would report anyone who did not abide by the rules to the authorities
● Forced sterilisations and abortions for women who were pregnant more than once

4. Were there any exemptions? What were some of the problems with implementation?
Loopholes etc

It was a policy of carrots and sticks; the degree of policing mainly relied on the area.

The policy was more strictly enforced in the urban areas, while exemptions had been made for
families living in rural areas.

5. What were the impacts of the OCP on China’s population? {population growth, working
age/economically active population, age-dependency ratio, gender balance, other)

● Prevented at least 400 million births

● Reduced the burden on the government to provide more job opportunities, housing
needs, sufficient healthcare and education.
● provide more job opportunities to children born during that period due to the lack of
competition.

Negative impacts:
● increased burden in children as if they are only children, they have to take care of their
parents alone when they get older
○ 4-2-1 syndrome
● The “Lonely generation”
 ● Large number of orphans
● Gender imbalance
○ 115.9 to 100
● Little Emperor syndrome, where children are overly spoiled and entitled due to how
they receive all the attention and care of their parents and grandparents and how they
are attended to hand and foot.

6. Has the One Child Policy been a success?

In 1979, the government aimed for a target population of 1.2billion by 2000. In 2000, the
population was 1.27billion according to census data. 400 million births were prevented

7. End of the One Child Policy

In October 2015, China announced the end of the OCP and stated that all couples would be
allowed two children.

Why is this? Has the two child policy been successful?

China’s government still needed a growing population to avoid incidence of an ageing

population (which would cause demographic debt).

The two-child policy was not successful due to its loose enforcement.
Case study: Singapore’s Pro-natalist policy
Case study
1. Singapore (2016)
● 720 km2
● 4th wealthiest country (GDP PPP)
● 5.6 million population (3.38 million citizens)
● Population growth: 1.3%
● Total fertility rate: 1.14 (2019)
● Life expectancy: 83 years (2019)
● Median age: 34 years in 2000 to 42.2 years in 2020

2. Singapore’s demographic phases and population policy. Make notes on the history of
population policies.
 ● Anti-natalist policy (Stop at Two) shortly after Singaporean independence (1976)
○ Government saw rapid population growth as a threat to Singapore’s living
standards
○ Government encouraged women to pursue degrees due to increased educational
opportunities, hence they had fewer children
● Pro-natalist policy (Have Three or More if You Can Afford It) after the government
realised that the pro-natalist policy had worked too successfully
○ Female graduates were encouraged by the government to have more children
(Graduate Mothers Scheme)
○ Monetary aid given to families with more children
○ This did not work too successfully - the rate of natural increase continued to
decline with the total fertility rate

3. What are the main demographic challenges facing Singapore now?

● Ageing population
● Increasing old-age dependency ratio
○ Large number of old dependents to support
● Low birth rate
○ Strain on economically active population

4. Watch the 2012 National Day rally speech. What are PM Lee’s recommendations to make
the population policy work?
Link to speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp7pnGxsWs8
● Achieve work-life balance
○ Incentive for working women to have more children
○ Having shorter work hours will allow working mothers to spend more time with
their children
● More flexible work arrangements
○ Eg. Make childcare more accessible
● Increase paternity leave for fathers to share the burden of looking after their newborns

5. What are some of the components of Singapore’s pro-natalist policy?

- tax rebates for the 3rd child
- priority for larger families in HDB flats and school enrollments
- subsidised day care
- extended leave for civil servants
- baby bonus
- Incentive campaign, with for example posters that promote large families, or against
abortion ideas
- “Have Three Or More if You Can Afford It” slogan

6. How effective have these strategies been?

 - Slight increase in TFR after pro-natalist policy introduced in 1987
- Steady decline since then
- TFR still decreasing year by year
- Many Singaporeans still do not have a work-life balance (ranks among the bottom 10 for
work life balance, also ranked 2nd most overworked city)
- Since women in Singapore are so educated (literacy rate for women is 95.92%), many are
growing up to focus on their careers rather than settle down and have children

Consequences of falling fertility rate

● Increased taxes
○ May be a blow to the economy as companies will be less inclined to do business
in Singapore
● 40% of the current workforce are migrants
● Number of elderly dependents will triple by 2030

Case study: Japan’s ageing population

Long life expectancy, Majority

of the population is in the
working population age gap

Fertility rate is way below the

world average, 2015- Japan:
1.4, World: 2.5
Anomaly- 1965 to 1970, sharp
decline in fertility rate
1. What are some of the reasons identified for Japan’s ageing population?

- Women are getting married later in life .

- Women have more options beside homemaking, such as focusing on their job.
- Young people in Japan have not been interested in starting families for the past 20 years.
- In Japanese society, women have to choose between their careers and having children
and more women would rather focus on their careers.
- Unfavourable employment practices
- Limited availability of childcare services
- Lack of flexible working conditions

2. What are some of the current and future consequences of these changes to Japan’s
population?

Economic:
Fewer people spending money
-Fewer people in the workforce
-Falling land prices and exchange rate depreciation, which affects how much Japan can buy from
other countries.
-Less money has to be spent on facilities for children and education prices will decrease.

Social:
-Unauthorised nursing homes and healthcare for the elderly.
-Solitary death for a large percentage of the elderly that do not have children that will take care
of them.
-More homes will be abandoned and more communities and areas of Japan will soon become
deserted.

3. What are some of the strategies used by Japan to try to fix its population crisis?

-The government has decided to implement pro-fertility policies, rewarding couples that choose
to have children.
-Japan has also decided to focus more on immigration and to build robots to help them in the
workforce.
-The government is also planning to improve healthcare for the elderly and implement more
facilities catered specifically for them.

Policies
● Angel Plan (1994: 5 year plan)
● New Angel Plan (1999)
○ make having children easier and a more attractive option
● Plus One Policy (2009)

Aims of the policies

● Improve the employment environment to reconcile work and family responsibilities
(create parent friendly working conditions)
● Enhance childcare services (construction of 50,000 new daycare facilities)
● Strengthen maternal and child health facilities
● Improve housing and public facilities for families with children
● Promote child development
● Improve the educational environment for children
● Ease the economic cost associated with child rearing.

Goals for the policies

● Raising the percentage of men taking paternity leave to 80% by 2020
● Increasing the proportion of men taking state-subsidised childcare leave — for a
maximum of one year — to 13% in 2020 (from only 2% in 2013) and the proportion of
women retaining their jobs a#er the birth of their first child, from 38% in 2010 to 55% in
2020.
● Planning to raise the time spent by those with children of 6 years and younger to 150
minutes a day from just 67 minutes in 2011.[22]

Gender Equality - Population policies

What is gender?
- The social attributes and opportunities associated with being male and female and the
relationships between men, women, girls and boys
- These are socially constructed and learned through socialisation processes
- They are context/time specific and changeable
- Refers to the debate on gender fluidity
- Determines what is expected, allowed and valued in a woman or man

What is gender equality?

 - The equal rights, responsibilities and opportunities of women and men and girls and
boys
- Equality does not mean that men and women become the same, but that women’s
rights and men’s rights, responsibilities and opportunities will not depend on whether
they are male or female.
- “Gender equality is not a women’s issue but should concern and fully engage men as well
as women. Equality between women and men is seen both as a human rights issue and
as a precondition for, and indicator of, sustainable people centred development” (UN,
2018)

How gender equality impacts the economy

- More women in the workforce → increased productivity → stimulates economy
- Brings women out of poverty → allows them to spend more and contribute to economy
- For example, increasing the female employment rates in OECD countries to match that
of Sweden, could boost GDP by over USD 6 trillion (UN Women)

Gender gap calculator:

https://widgets.weforum.org/gender-gap-calculator/
MIC - Singapore
- Country ranks 55th
- For every $1 a woman earns, a man earns $1.12
- 65.6% of women are part of the labour force, compared to 82.33% of men

Gender equality- Why it matters

● On average, women in the labour market still earn 24% less than men globally
● Women take up half the world’s population, meaning it is half the world’s potential
○ Development is better achieved with everyone’s participation
○ ⅓ of developing countries have not achieved gender parity in education
■ Little ability to earn money
○ Lack of access to skills, limited opportunities in labour market
○ Lifting people out of poverty
● Challenge stereotypes
○ Traditional gender roles (can sometimes stem from religious beliefs)
○ Assumptions about people (danger of a single story)
○ Reductive portrayals
○ Systemic sexism
● Fair society
○ Gender equality- Fundamental human right
○ Reduces poverty
 ○ Promotes health
○ Promotes education
● Solutions/ policies
○ Increase women’s access to services and resources
○ Support women as farmers and leaders
○ Educational campaigns
○ Change laws that limit the rights of women
○ Education programmes for women
○ Invest in programs improving income generation for women

Targets:
● End all forms of discrimination to women and girls worldwide
● Eliminate all forms of violence towards women, such as trafficking and exploitation
● Eliminate all harmful practices, such as forced marriage
● Ensure full participation and equal opportunities for women in leadership in politics and
economic life
● Ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights
● Equal rights to economic resources
● Strengthen policies and enforce legislation for the promotion of gender equality

Statistics:
● In more than 60 countries, women denied the right to acquire, change, or retain their
nationality
○ Inability to exercise citizenship rights the same as men
● Women earn between 10% less to 30% less than men in 83 countries surveyed
○ More insecure employment, higher incidence of poverty among women
● 781 million adults and 126 million youths lack basic literacy skills
○ More than 60% are women
● 1 in 3 women have experienced physical or sexual violence
● More than 140 million women have an unmet need for family planning
● Women occupy only 22% of parliament seats worldwide
● Global average of annual earnings- 12k women, 21k men

Gender equality - Iceland

● A nordic island nation in Europe
● Population- 364, 134
● #1 in the World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Index (best in the world)
● The Economist named the country the world’s best for working women
○ 80% of Icelandic women work
 ● Every parent receives 3 months’ paid leave, with additional 3 to share as they like
○ 90% of Icelandic fathers take paternal leave
○ More involved in childcare, share parental responsibilities
● Education places emphasis on gender equality and the need for women to be confident
○ 19 same-sex schools using this model
○ 65% of Iceland’s university students are female

● Feminism movement in the 1970s - women were frustrated at the lack of female
representation in politics (only 9 had ever won seats in Parliament)
○ 90% of Iceland’s female working population went on a workplace and domestic
strike
○ Big message: if women don’t work, the economy and society will grind to a halt
○ Following this movement, women started gaining more traction in government /
economy
● Legislation to prohibit sexual harassment
○ Legislative framework to not only promote women’s roles in society, but protect
them

Gender equality - Yemen

● Located in the Middle East
● Population of 28.5 million
● Ranked at the bottom of the Gender Gap index

● Women have low levels of participation in formal work

○ Women represent 13% of agricultural land owners
● High rates of violence against women and girls
○ 35% of women have experienced violence (physical/sexual)
● Structural inequalities that limit access to basic services, dramatic gender gap in literacy
and education
● Women get 77 cents for every dollar made by a man for the same work
● Only 30% of the Yemeni female population was literate
● Only 30% of girls are enrolled in primary school
● Female unemployment of 41%, compared to that of men at 12%

The UN Women branch plans for Yemen:

- Provide coordination and programme support to strengthen gender equality and women
empowerment efforts
- Works with partners to eliminate discrimination against women
- Increase women’s leadership and inclusion of peace
Measuring gender inequality
● Income
○ Ability to earn income
○ Amount of income
● Literacy rate
○ Access to education
● Life expectancy
○ Access to and quality of healthcare
● Participation in labour force
○ Economic / wellbeing
● % of women in government positions
● Representation of women at tertiary level education
○ Academics
○ Papers published

World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index

● Examines progress towards gender parity in 144 countries using a scale from 0-1
○ 1 indicates perfect parity
● Evaluates across four themes:
○ Economic participation and opportunity
○ Educational attainment
○ Health and survival
○ Political empowerment
UNDP Gender Inequality Index

● The Gender Inequality Index measured gender inequalities in reproductive health

○ Measured using reproductive health
■ Maternal mortality rates + adolescent birth rates
○ Empowerment
■ Proportion of seats in parliament
■ Proportion of adult males/females with some secondary education
 ○ Economic status
■ Labour market participation

Anti-trafficking - Population policies

Definition of trafficking: the recruitment, harbouring or transportation of people through the
use of force, fraud (deception) or coercion for the purpose of exploitation (sexual exploitation,
forced labour, slavery and servitude, forced marriage, forced organ removal)

Types of trafficking:
(No need to memorise all the terms)

● Sex trafficking
○ When an adult engages in commercial sex acts as a result of force, threats or
coercion
■ Held in service through psychological manipulation or physical force
○ May occur through coercion where individuals are compelled to do so as a result
of their “debt” incurred through transportation or their “sale” that has to be paid
off before they are free

● Child sex trafficking

○ When a child is recruited/ obtained to perform a commercial sex act
○ Even without force, fraud or coercion
○ Devastating consequences for children

● Forced labor
○ When a person uses force or physical threats to compel someone to work
○ A person’s labor is exploited

● Bonded labour or debt bondage

○ A form of coercion used by traffickers in both sex trafficking and forced labour is
the imposition of a bond or debt
○ Some workers inherit debt from their ancestors that they need to pay off
○ Others fall victim to traffickers or recruiters who unlawfully exploit an initial debt
assumed, wittingly or unwittingly, as a term of employment

Reducing trafficking
How can the number of human trafficking cases be reduced?
Adapted from November 2019 Paper 2 mark scheme.
 ● Increased border controls
○ More thorough checking of paperwork
○ Training of border control staff to identify signs of human trafficking
■ Eg. in South Africa, the documents of people travelling with children are
checked
● Protection, assistance and support
○ Introduction of legislation to criminalise trafficking and increase the severity of
punishments
○ Establishment of task forces and agencies to assist and provide support to victims
● Coordination of key agencies such as police forces and inter-agency forces
○ Collaboration with other governments / regional or international agencies to
address cross-country trafficking
● Policies by industries and institutions
○ Eg. refusal to work with firms that exploit trafficked people
● Measures to turn back migrants
○ BUT this will prevent refugees from achieving a better quality of life elsewhere
● Education and awareness
○ Public education schemes to educate public on the types of trafficking and
punishments
○ Informing vulnerable groups of their rights and how to protect themselves from
becoming victims
○ Restricting advertising on social media (eg. job offers)
● Improving the lives of vulnerable groups in source countries
○ Providing education and employment opportunities so that vulnerable groups do
not have to seek them elsewhere → makes them less susceptible to scams and
becoming victims of trafficking

Case study: prevention of trafficking in Singapore

● In 2017, there were 34 trafficking cases
○ Most of them were sex trafficking cases
○ Others were labour trafficking cases

Management:
● In 2010, Singapore Inter-agency Taskforce on Trafficking in Persons was established
○ Led by Ministry of Home Affairs and Ministry of Manpower
○ Representatives from 7 other government agencies
○ Created for coordination of national policies and programmes to combat
trafficking
● National Plan of Action (2012-2015)
 ○ Trained officers to detect human trafficking victims and traffickers
○ Forged partnerships with regional and international bodies
○ TIP (trafficking in persons) Public Awareness Grant - seeks to encourage public
education initiatives that raise awareness of TIP crimes
■ Grants awarded to community stakeholders and non-governmental
groups for a range of awareness programmes
○ Increasing protection efforts → identified victims of trafficking and provided
protection
■ Established shelters for victims
■ Provided psychological support
● Prevention of Human Trafficking Act
○ Took effect in March 2015
○ Serves to deter TIP and and supports the rehabilitation of trafficked victims
○ Encourages reporting of TIP activities, mandatory court proceedings, media
gag-orders
○ Singapore’s penal code states that human traffickers can receive up to 10 years in
prison and 6 strokes of the cane - extreme punishment acts as deterrence
● National Approach Against Trafficking in Persons (2016)
○ Prevention- Public aware of TIP crimes and takes steps to prevent and combat
TIP. Government officials that are well trained and professional in identifying and
dealing with TIP cases
○ Prosecution- End-to-end criminal justice response to all TIP crimes,
comprehensive investigations and prosecution
○ Protection- Victim care and support framework, looks after needs of all
trafficking victims
○ Partnership- A strong ecosystem comprising domestic and international
stakeholders to put forth responses against TIP

- Achieved Tier 1 ranking in Trafficking in Persons report 2020 for increased efforts to
tackle human trafficking (2020)
- By the US Department of State
- Broadcasting trafficking conviction in Singapore’s 4 main languages reaching 1.7 million
viewers
- Pre-departure training of foreign workers on their rights
- Government allocating funds for anti-trafficking activities in its annual budget, shelter
and counselling services to all victims — funding and oversight to shelters
- Policy protecting victims from crimes committed when subjected to trafficking
- 10-year imprisonment and $100,000 fines