ERROR Ft=Ft-1+α (At-1 – Ft-1)

MONTH SALES 3 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE MAD MSE MAPE 3 MONTH WEIGHTED MAD MSE MAPE EXPONETIAL SMOOTHING MAD MSE MAPE
AVERAGE α=0.50
January 20 1 ∑ (A-F) ∑ (A-F)2 ∑ (A-F)=100 F= 18
n n A . .

n
February 21 2 =18+0.50(20-18)=19

March 15 3 =19+0.50(21-19)=20

April 14 15+21+20= 18.67 14-18.67=4.47 (4.6)2= 21.8 (14-18.67)x 100=33% 15x3+21x2+20x1= 17.8 3.83 14.67 27.14% =20+0.50(15-20)=17.5 (14-17.5=3.5) 12.25 25%
3 14 6
May 13 14+15+21= 16.67 13-16.67=3.67 (3.67)2= 13.5 (13- =15.5 2.5 6.25 19.23% =175.+0.50(14-17.5)=15.75 (15.75-13=2.75) 7.56 20.7%
3 16.67)x100=13.5%
13
June 16 14 16-14=2 4 =13 =10.5 2.33 5.47 14.62% =15.75+0.50(19- (14.38-16=1.6) 2.82 10.5%
15.75)=14.38
July 17 14.33 2.7 7.29 =16 =14.6 3.34 5.42 13.76% =15.1 (15.1-17= 1.9) 3.61 11.17%

August 18 15.33 2.7 7.29 =15 =16 2 4 11.11% =16.09 (16.07-18=1.91) 3.64 10.6%

September 20 17 3 9 =15 =16 2.67 71 13.35% =17.04 (17.04-20=2.96) 8.7 14.8%

October 20 18.33 1.7 2.89 =8 =18 1.2 1.36 5.85% =18.52 (18.52-20=1.48) 2.19 7.4%

November 21 19.33 1.7 2.89 =8 =19.6 1.4 1.76 6.38% =19.26 (19.26-21) 3.0 8.28%

December 23 2033 2.7 7.29 =12 =20.5 2.5 6.25 1.86% =20.13 (20.13-23=2.87) 8.2 12.4%

January 21.33 ∑ = 24.74 75.95 ∑ = 148 21.56 ∑ = 21.7 ∑ = 52.3 ∑ = 122.3 =21.5 20.72 52 120.77%
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
MAD = 2.7 MSE= 8.4 MAPE = 16% MAD 2.3 5.7 13.4