Population Dynamics Click & Learn

African Wildlife Case Studies

INTRODUCTION
Mathematical models can be used to answer questions, solve problems, and make predictions about all kinds of
populations. In this activity, you’ll use the exponential and logistic growth models in the Population Dynamics
Click & Learn to investigate three different populations of African animals. The models and analyses you’ll use
here can be used for many other types of populations as well.
PART 1: Waterbuck
Africa is home to many different kinds of animals, including large antelope called waterbuck that live near lakes
and rivers. In certain areas, waterbuck populations are declining due to hunting and habitat loss.
1. How could we use mathematical models to help waterbuck and other wildlife?

Let’s investigate the waterbuck population in Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique. In the 1970s and 1980s,
Mozambique experienced an intense civil war, and most of the waterbuck were killed to provide food and
money for soldiers. After the war ended in 1992, many people worked together to rebuild the park. Scientists
developed mathematical models to better understand how the park’s waterbuck population recovered
afterward, and to help make decisions about managing this population in the future.
2. What are the advantages of using a mathematical model to study a population rather than just observing
the population?
Models are useful when it's tough or expensive to watch animals directly, like if they're hard to find or
need a lot of time and gear to keep an eye on. They can also help predict what might happen in different
situations or in the future, when we can't see it happening right now.

An early model of the waterbuck population was based on the exponential growth model, which is described in
the “Exponential growth model” section of the Population Dynamics Click & Learn. The population’s maximum
per capita growth rate (r) was estimated as the difference between its per capita birth rate (b), the number of
births per individual per unit time, and its per capita death rate (d), the number of deaths per individual per unit
time:
𝑟𝑟 = 𝑏𝑏 − 𝑑𝑑

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Population Dynamics African Wildlife Case Studies
3. At the start of the recovery period, the waterbuck population contained only 140 individuals. The population
had 0.67 births per year per individual and 0.06 deaths per year per individual.
a. What is the maximum per capita growth rate (r) for this population? Include units in your answer.
r= 0.67 - 0.06 | 0.61 units per year.

b. What is the initial population size (N0) for this population? Include units in your answer.
140 waterbuck

Go to the “Simulator” section under the “Exponential growth model” tab in the Population Dynamics Click &
Learn. Fill in the simulator settings based on your answers above. (Note: The simulator doesn’t show units for
times or rates because many units are possible. In these examples, we’ll use “years” as our unit for time and
“per year” as our units for per capita rates.)
4. Using the simulator, fill in the following table with the population size (N) and population growth rate
(dN/dt) at different time points (t, measured in years).
Time (t) 5 10 15 20 25
Population size (N) 2,956 62,420 1,318,022 27,830,481 587,650,195
Population growth
1,803.25 38,076.25 803,993.21 16,976,593.51 358,466,619.03
rate (dN/dt)
5. Based on this model, how will the waterbuck population grow over time? Will the population ever stop
growing or get smaller?
In this model, the waterbuck population grow s bigger and faster over time. It never stops growing or gets
smaller.
6. Do you think this model reflects how the waterbuck population will grow in real life? Why or why not?
Not at all. There might be a factor that decrease the population growth, such as lack of food or space. If the
populations is biggers it would experience higher amount of diseases and predation.
7. Imagine that a decrease in the number of predators lowered the per capita death rate of the waterbuck to
0.04 deaths per year per individual.
a. What would be the new maximum per capita growth rate (r) for the waterbuck population?
0.63 per year

b. What would be the population size (N) after 20 years (t = 20)? Use the same N0 as in Question 3.
41,518,199 waterbuck

We originally estimated r as the difference between the per capita birth rate (b) and the per capita death rate
(d). However, r is also affected by other processes, such as immigration (movement of individuals into a
population) and emigration (movement of individuals out of a population). Let i represent the per capita
immigration rate and m represent the per capita emigration rate. The equation for r can be updated to:
𝑟𝑟 = (𝑏𝑏 − 𝑑𝑑) + (𝑖𝑖 − 𝑚𝑚)
8. Imagine that new waterbuck immigrate into the park at a rate of 0.25 per year. Assume that there are no
emigrations and that the rest of the population parameters are the same as in Question 3.
a. What would be the population size after 20 years (t = 20)?
(0.67-0.06)+(0.25) = 0.86 =r | The population size after 20 years would be 4,130,409,628
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Population Dynamics African Wildlife Case Studies
b. How does the size of the population with immigration (your answer to Part A) compare to the size of the
population without immigration (your result for t = 20 in Table 1)?
The population of waterbuck with immigration (4,130,409,628) is much larger than the population without immigration
(27,830,481). Small changes in the growth rate can have a big impact in the exponential growth model. For example, the growth
rate in table 1 was 0.61, while in part A it was 0.86.
PART 2: Kudu
Another type of African antelope is the kudu. Like waterbuck, many kudu have lost their habitat due to human activities. Male
kudu are also hunted for their large spiraled horns, which are taken as trophies. As with waterbuck, developing population models
for kudu can help us learn more about them.

Most populations, including those of the waterbuck and kudu, cannot grow forever. They are limited by factors such as food or
space, which keep a population from getting too large.

9. Besides food and space, what are two other factors that could limit the size of a population?
Higher amount of diseases and predation

One model that includes the effect of limiting factors is the logistic growth model, which is described in the
“Logistic growth model” section of the Population Dynamics Click & Learn. In this model, a population has an
upper limit to its growth called the carrying capacity (K), which is the largest size of a population that the
environment can support in the long run.

Imagine a national park with an initial population of 10 kudu, which have a maximum per capita growth rate of
0.26 per year. The park can support a maximum of 100 kudu in the long run.
10. What are the values of K, r, and N0 for this kudu population?
K: 100
r: 0.26
N0: 10
Go to the “Simulator” section under the “Logistic growth model” tab in the Population Dynamics Click & Learn.
Fill in the simulator settings based on your answers above.
11. Based on this model, about how many years will it take the kudu population to reach the carrying capacity?
(Hint: You may want to change the “Max” values for the axes on Plot 1 to get a better look at the curve.)
About 30 years

12. What will happen to the population growth rate (dN/dt) as the population size (N) gets closer and closer to
the carrying capacity?
The population growth rate increases initially until the population reaches about half of the carrying capacity (50). Afterward,
the growth rate gradually decreases to 0 as the population approaches and reaches the carrying capacity (100).
13. Imagine that more land is added to the park, allowing it to support up to 250 kudu. How will the size of the
kudu population change once this land is added?
The population will grow until it reaches the new carrying capacity of 250 kudu.

14. Reset the model to the values you determined in Question 10. Now imagine that trophy hunters start killing
kudu in the park, which decreases their maximum per capita growth rate to 0.15 per year. How would this
impact the kudu’s population size over time? (Hint: Look at how many years it will take the population to
reach its carrying capacity now.)
With the presence of hunters, the population takes around 50 years to reach this capacity.

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Population Dynamics African Wildlife Case Studies
PART 3: Wildebeest
The last type of antelope we’ll investigate is the wildebeest, which are found in eastern and southern Africa.
Wildebeest live in giant herds that can contain over a million individuals! The wildebeest herd in the Serengeti
region of Tanzania is one of the biggest populations of large herbivores in the world.

Before the 1960s, wildebeest and many other hoofed mammals in the Serengeti were killed by rinderpest, a
virus related to the measles virus. In 1960, a campaign began to vaccinate domestic cattle, which were a major
source of the virus. Over time, the campaign eliminated rinderpest and allowed many animal populations to
recover.

Figure 1 shows the population sizes of two animals, wildebeest and zebras, before and after the rinderpest
vaccination campaign.

Figure 1. Wildebeest and zebra populations in the Serengeti from the 1950s to 2010.

15. Based on Figure 1, what kind of population growth model would you use to represent the Serengeti
wildebeest population? Why?
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17. Calculate the size of the wildebeest population in the year 1968, using the logistic model simulator with the
following settings: K = 1,245,000 wildebeest, r = 0.2717 per year, and N0 = 80,000 wildebeest in the year
1958.

634,497 wildebeest

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Population Dynamics African Wildlife Case Studies
18. Imagine that the maximum per capita growth rate (r) for the wildebeest population increased to 0.4 per year
in 1958.
a. Suggest a specific reason that r could increase for a population.
An increase in the birth rate or immigration rate, or a decrease in the death rate or emigration rate,
could all cause r to increase.
b. Recalculate the population size in 1968 using the new r. You can use the same values for the other
settings as in Question 17.
982,852 wildebeest

c. Sketch or describe how the wildebeest population curve in Figure 4 might change as a result of the new
r.
The population would grow more quickly and reach the carrying capacity faster.

19. Imagine that the carrying capacity (K) for the wildebeest population decreased to 1,000,000 wildebeest in
1958.
a. Suggest a specific reason that K could decrease for a population.
reduced rain, reduced plant consumption, or habitat shrinkage due to park development.
b. Recalculate the population size in 1968 using the new K. You can use the same values for the other
settings as in Question 17.
568,235 wildebeest

c. Sketch or describe how the wildebeest population curve in Figure 4 might change as a result of the new
K.
The population would grow slower and stop growing once it reached the new, smaller carrying
capacity.
20. Look at the size of the zebra population, which is shown as triangles in Figure 4, before and after the
rinderpest vaccination campaign.
a. What patterns or trends do you observe in the zebra population?
The size of the zebra population does not change much both during and after the
rinderpest vaccination campaign.
b. Based on your answer above, what effect does rinderpest have on zebras?
zebras are not affected by rinderpest, since the decline in rinderpest had no effect on them T
e
21. Based on Figure 4, did the zebra population growth rate (dN/dt) differ in the years 1985 and 2003? Why or z
why not? (Hint: dN/dt is equal to the slope of the curve showing population size, N, over time, t.) r
The fact that this curve is largely flat in 1985 and 2003 indicates that the zebra growth rate is almost the same in both p
years and does not vary significantly. . p
22. Imagine that there is a large wildfire in the Serengeti in 2010. a
o
a. How might the zebra and wildebeest populations change right after the wildfire? g
w
Probably decrease in size, because the fire would kill both wildebeest and zebra.
h
b. How large do you think the zebra and wildebeest populations would be 50 years after the wildfire? r
Explain your answer, or what else you would want to know before making a prediction. e
g
If the habitat was not severely damaged, populations could return to their carrying capacity over time. e
b
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Population Dynamics African Wildlife Case Studies
23. We often design population models to answer certain questions. We may leave out other factors that are
less relevant to our questions or that could overcomplicate our analysis.
a. Propose one new question about the waterbuck, kudu, or wildebeest populations that could be
answered using the models you learned about in this activity.
How does the population of kudu grow when resources are unlimited?

b. Propose one new question about the waterbuck, kudu, or wildebeest populations that could not be
answered using these models. What could you add to the models in order to answer your question?
What would be the limiting factors decreasing the carrying capacity of the population of waterbuck?

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