What is going to be keywords for

2024?
According to the analysis and judgment
of many influential organizations, 2024
will be a difficult year for the
global economy, espcially for top
economies. Recent events from
geopolitical conflicts to natural
disasters have made statements more
convincing. In this context, perhaps
citizens, businesses, and governments
need to identify for themselves the
keywords for action: Awareness, Adapt,
and Agile.

A world that is keeping... VUCA

VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty,
Complexity, and Ambiguity) is a term
that refers to the highly volatile,
uncertain, complex, and ambiguous
phenomenon of the world nowadays.
The Covid-19 pandemic; the Russia-
Ukraine war; the conflict in the Gaza
Strip, in Africa; natural disasters;
inflation; tensions between major
economies (US – China)... create
polarization, slowing growth
economies and deadlock in finding new
growth models, populism and the far-
right trends... are the main causes of
VUCA.

Recently, a website called Project-

Syndicate posted a 2024 forecast from
a number of regularly collaborated
commentators. Among them,
outstanding is the issue of war,
geopolitical conflict.

The Russia-Ukraine war continues, and

the war will affect the results of
elections in the US and Europe, and
election results will in turn affect the
course of the war While the West
remains uncertain about the outcome of
the election, for Russia, Putin's
continued leadership is almost certain,
and will require major concessions if
important agreements are to be made.

In addition, there is a potential of

worldwide instability due to the Gaza
conflicts and the Taiwan-related
problems. Particularly for China, the
domestic economy faces more
difficulties, which will make its leaders
tougher in international issues,
especially the disappointing results of
the One Belt, One Road - OBOR
Initiative.

Regarding the economy, 2024 is

expected to be not optimistic for the
world, especially major economies.
Many influential international
organizations have assessed that global
economic growth in 2024 will be lower
than in 2023. According to the OECD,
global economic growth in 2024 is
estimated to be 2.7%, which is not
much different from the IMF's forecast
in October 2023 of 2.9%. Meanwhile,
The Conference Board forecasts the
world economy to grow 2.6% in 2024,
decreased from 3.2% in 2023.

Two major players, the United States

and China, are predicted to face more
considerable challenges in 2024. The
most optimistic scenario for the United
States is a soft landing, but the
potential for crisis still remains.
Meanwhile, China also has to deal with
issues like the property market, youth
unemployment, and transitioning
monetary and fiscal policies to be more
flexible and proactive.

Moreover, the ongoing tensions

between the US and China are also a
substantial risk for the world economy:
global trade has decreased by 8% in
2023, and the fragmentation of the
world economy can cause a loss of
2.5–7% of world GDP. The United
States and European governments'
changing industrial policies will have a
significant impact on foreign direct
investment and world commerce.

2024 Action Keywords: Awareness,

Adapt, and Agile

Given the deteriorating socio-political

and economic environment, as well as
the potential to cause significant
uncertainty in 2024, it is strongly
advised that people, businesses, and the
government take careful steps to
prepare.

According to the writer, the first

keyword is "awareness". More than
ever, whenever there are many
uncertainties, we should prepare for
ourselves as many information sources
as possible. Acquiring knowledge from
a variety of sources while also
possessing the capacity to sort,
evaluate, and transform data into
meaningful signals. Being aware of
risks must be complemented by the
capacity to gauge the likelihood and
severity of these risks. Additionally,
recognizing opportunities that arise
from these risks is paramount. History
has proven that during market
downturns, significant opportunities
often emerge.

Awareness also entails finding the right

balance or stopping point to align with
your objectives. For an individual, it
can be health, family, finances, and
social relationships. For a business, it
can be profit, employee satisfaction,
and contribution to society. And for the
government, it can be growth and the
quality of growth, and the quality of
life of the people.

The second keyword is "adaptability".

With the rapid changes of the
socioeconomic situation, adaptation is
an crucial requirement. But in order to
adapt, it is necessary to prepare for a
variety of scenarios and situations. The
structure and characteristics of the
subjects also need to be flexible and
ready for change. If a business has a
challenging issue exporting to a
particular market, how should it
evaluate and adjust its business plan to
minimize losses? Or adjust the
production and business plan so that
the damage is minimal?

The third keyword is "agile".

Alongside awareness and adaptability,
agility in preception and adjustment is
essential. Today the cycles, life cycles
or developments of an event tend to
happen rapidly. A significant event can
quickly fade into obscurity as another
event rises, which we often call
“trend”. Take a business model
introduced into Vietnam as an example,
it may thriving in popularity but then
vanish just in a blink of an eye. In the
context of many fluctuations, agility
can bring numerous opportunities by
allowing you to evade risks and seize
emerging prospects.

2024 has arrived, bringing the

expectations of a year filled with
uncertainties and surpises. ,a year that
is said to have many uncertainties as
well as surprises. While events are
beyond our reach, we can acknowledge
their presence, assess the possibilities,
and prepare ourselves for swift
adaptation and reaction. May we all
stand tall for what to come in a year
full of challenges.