Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669
DOI 10.1007/s00477-011-0525-1
ORIGINAL PAPER
Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual evapotranspiration
over Haihe River basin in China
Ge Gao • Chong-Yu Xu • Deliang Chen •
V. P. Singh
Published online: 7 October 2011
 Springer-Verlag 2011
Abstract Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual
evapotranspiration over the Haihe River basin in China
during 1960–2002 are estimated using the complementary
relationship and the Thornthwaite water balance (WB)
approaches. Firstly, the long-term water balance equation is
used to validate and select the most suitable long-term
average annual actual evapotranspiration equations for nine
subbasins. Then, the most suitable method, the Pike equa-
tion, is used to calibrate parameters of the complementary
relationship models and the WB model at each station. The
results show that the advection aridity (AA) model more
closely estimates actual evapotranspiration than does the
Granger and Gray (GG) model especially considering the
annual and summer evapotranspiration when compared with
G. Gao (&)
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China
Meteorological Administration, No. 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie,
Haidian, Beijing 100081, China
e-mail: gaoge@cma.gov.cn
G. Gao  D. Chen
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg,
PO Box 460, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
C.-Y. Xu
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway, Oslo
C.-Y. Xu
School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,
Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
V. P. Singh
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering,
Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, USA
V. P. Singh
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering,
Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, USA
the WB model estimates. The results from the AA model and
the WB model are then used to analyze spatial and temporal
changing characteristics of the actual evapotranspiration
over the basin. The analysis shows that the annual actual
evapotranspirations during 1960–2002 exhibit similar
decreasing trends in most parts of the Haihe River basin for
the AA and WB models. Decreasing trends in annual pre-
cipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which directly
affect water supply and the energy available for actual
evapotranspiration respectively, jointly lead to the decrease
in actual evapotranspiration in the basin. A weakening of the
water cycle seems to have appeared, and as a consequence,
the water supply capacity has been on the decrease, aggra-
vating water shortage and restricting sustainable social and
economic development in the region.
Keywords Complementary relationship  Thornthwaite
water balance model  Actual evapotranspiration  Trend 
Haihe River basin  China
1 Introduction
The Haihe River is one of the major rivers in China. Over
the past few decades shortage of water was a serious
problem, partly due to the rapid social and economic
development, and the problem was further aggravated by
climate change (Cui et al. 2009). In the recent 50 years,
annual precipitation in the Haihe River basin is found to be
decreasing (Ren et al. 2005; Wang et al. 2011a) as a result
of weakening summer monsoon (Wang et al. 2004). Runoff
in the basin also exhibits a steadily declining trend, which
was attributed to increased human activity and possibly
climate change (Ren et al. 2002; Liu et al. 2004; Yang and
Tian 2009; Zhang et al. 2011b). A significant decline in
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runoff is found in five of the eight sub-basins and abrupt
changes in runoff occurred in 1978–1985 for most of the
sub-basins (Yang and Tian 2009; Zhang et al. 2011b).
Because of the decreasing rainfall and persistent ground-
water overexploitation, the water level declined in both
shallow and deep aquifers, and generally with the greatest
decrease in cities and intensively groundwater-irrigation
areas (Liu and Yu 2001). Groundwater depletion has
severely impacted the environment of the region (Liu and
Yu 2001; Xia et al. 2007).
Water management in river basins, based on evapo-
transpiration, has become a developing trend in arid and
semi-arid areas (e.g., Qin et al. 2009). Compared with
traditional management based on water supply and
demand, the main difference is that the utility of water
resource can be managed more efficiently through the
reduction of evapotranspiration for achieving the goal of
reducing overall regional water consumption. Evapotrans-
piration is a major consumer of water in the water cycle,
particularly in semi-arid regions like the Haihe River basin.
Reducing and controlling evapotranspiration will augment
water saving given the same amount of precipitation. For
management of evapotranspiration, accurate and reliable
estimation of actual evapotranspiration is crucial.
In hydrology and meteorology, direct observations of
actual evapotranspiration are rare, for they are difficult to
carry out on a large scale. Therefore, actual evapotranspira-
tion is usually estimated using different methods. The Pen-
man–Monteith method (Allen et al. 1998), considering
aerodynamic resistance and surface resistance, has been
successfully used to calculate actual evapotranspiration from
different land covers. However, the aerodynamic resistance
and surface resistance data are not readily available in prac-
tice. The method, where the water consumption of vegetation
is estimated as a fraction of a reference evapotranspiration,
depends on the accuracy of the reference chosen, reference
evapotranspiration estimation and crop coefficient (Rana and
Katerji 2000; Xu et al. 2006). Hydrological models estimate
actual evapotranspiration on a basin scale. However, lumped
models cannot provide detailed spatial variation patterns and
distributed models require the observation data for validating
the result may not be readily available. In recent years, remote
sensing data has been gradually used to estimate actual
evapotranspiration (Kustas and Norman 1996; Courault et al.
2003; El Haj El Tahir et al. 2011). The significant advantages
of the remote sensing based methods are high spatial and
temporal resolution and easy extrapolation to other sites
without measurements compared to the traditional methods
based on the ground measurements (Tsouni et al. 2008). But
the relatively long turn-around time for image delivery and
the cost involved with the acquisition of high-resolution
imagery are often unattractive for operational application
(Courault et al. 2003).
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Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669
Complementary relationship based evapotranspiration
calculation methods, proposed by Bouchet (1963), are
usually preferred, because they require only observations on
climate variables and bypass complex and poorly under-
stood soil–plant processes (Hobbins et al. 2001; Xu and
Chen 2005). Different models have been developed in terms
of the complementary relationship concept, including the
advection-aridity (AA) model (Brutsaert and Stricker
1979), the GG model based on the relative evapotranspi-
ration concept (Granger and Gray 1989), and the comple-
mentary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE)
model proposed by Morton (1978, 1983). All of these
methods have been tested in different climate regions (e.g.,
Yang et al. 2009; Xu and Singh 2005; Qiu et al. 2004;Zhang
et al. 2011a; Wang et al. 2011b). One of the weaknesses of
the CRAE model is that it cannot be conceptually used for
short-time intervals because of the subsurface heat storage
changes and the lag time associated with the change in the
storage of heat and water vapour in the atmospheric
boundary layer (Doyle 1990; Xu and Li 2003). In this study,
the AA and GG methods will be compared and the one
which performs better will be used, together with the
Thornthwaite water balance approach (Gao et al. 2007), to
analyze trends in actual evapotranspiration.
Long-term trend in actual evapotranspiration is a useful
indicator of the changes in the water cycle and climate. The
change in the water cycle in the Haihe River basin plays an
important role for water resource management and plan-
ning, and has attracted much attention. However, so far
only a very few studies have been devoted to the role
played by actual evapotranspiration in the change of water
cycle in the Haihe River basin. Gao et al. (2007) used a
modified Thornthwaite water balance model to estimate
monthly actual evapotranspiration over China and investi-
gated the trend in actual evapotranspiration during
1960–2002. Based on the Budyko method, Ni et al. (2007)
also found a significant decreasing trend in actual evapo-
transpiration in eastern China during 1951–2003. Van
Heerwaarden et al. (2010) showed the trend in actual
evpotranspiration can be inferred from data sets containing
pan evaporation, vapor pressure deficit and wind speed
which are interrelated due to land surface-atmosphere
feedbacks. One of their main conclusions is that an
increase in soil moisture leads to more actual evapotrans-
piration and less pan evaporation under all conditions.
These studies suggested that more detailed studies focusing
on a particular region would be needed using different
methods. Teuling et al. (2009) identified that the trends in
actual evapotranspiration can only be understood region-
ally (and temporally), by considering regional (and tem-
poral) variations in the main drivers of evapotranspiration.
The objectives of this study are (1) to compare the
performance of different models (two complementary
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669
relationship approaches and the Thornthwaite water bal-
ance approach) for calculating regional evapotranspiration
for the Haihe River basin, which, to our knowledge, has not
been done before; (2) to evaluate temporal and spatial
variability of actual evapotranspiration in the basin; and (3)
to discuss implications of the estimated actual evapo-
transpiration changes for the water cycle in the region.
2 Study area and data
Located in the northern China, the Haihe River basin is
surrounded by Bohai Sea in the east, Taihang Mountain in
the west, Mongolia Plateau in the north and lower reaches
of Yellow River in the South (Fig. 1). The topography
decreases gradually from the plateau and mountainous
regions in northern and western parts to the plain region in
the eastern part (Fig. 1). In plateau and mountainous
regions, lands are mainly covered by shrubs, partly by
grasslands, meadow and one crop per year. In plain area,
two crops per year and three crops per 2 years are major
vegetations. The basin area is 31.8 9 104 Km2 and occu-
pies 3.3% of the total area of China. Mountains and plateau
make up 60%, plain comprises 40% of the area (Zhu et al.
2010). There are three major rivers in this area, i.e., Haihe
River, Luanhe River and Tuhaimajia River.
Fig. 1 The location and
topography of Haihe River
basin in China, and the
distribution of meteorological
stations and selected nine
subbasins in Haihe River basin.
The symbols ‘‘9’’ denote
stations at nine selected
subbasins which are listed in
Table 1 and ‘‘4’’ denote the
other meteorological stations
657
Lying in a transition region between humid climate and
arid climate, the Haihe River basin belongs to the Tem-
perate East Asia monsoon climate zone. The annual pre-
cipitation is not very abundant with uneven spatial and
temporal pattern. The annual precipitation varies from
371 mm in west to 771 mm in northeast mountains.
Affected by monsoon, precipitation is mainly concentrated
in summer in the form of rainstorms. In spring, drought
occurs frequently as a result of low precipitation, rapid
increase of temperature, more windy days and large
evapotranspiration. Spring drought constituents a great
threat to the production of winter wheat in this region (Yao
1969; Song et al. 2006).
The area covered by the basin is not only a political,
economic and cultural center with a high density of pop-
ulation, but also a key area for food and economic crop
production in China. It contains Beijing, Tianjin, parts of
Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Liaoning provinces
as well as a small part of Inner Mongolia. Since the 1970s,
the conflict between water demand and supply has been
gradually increasing, along with the social and economical
development and climate change in the region.
The climate data used to the water balance estimation
were obtained from the National Meteorological Informa-
tion Center of China Meteorological Administration. These
data included observed daily and monthly mean air
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temperature, maximum and minimum air temperature,
wind speed, sunshine duration, relative humidity and pre-
cipitation at 29 stations over the Haihe River basin during
1960–2002 (Fig. 1). During the study period the percent-
ages of missing daily data for different elements varied
from 0.01% to 0.02%, except for the sunshine duration
which was 0.3%. The data were checked for two kinds of
potential errors, i.e., outliers and inconsistency. The outli-
ers were identified by using the threshold value method,
and the consistency was checked by using the double mass
curve method (Dingman 2002). These tests show that the
data are homogenous and reliable at 5% significance level.
Long-term averaged annual runoff and basin average
precipitation data during 1956–1984 for nine subbasins of
the Haihe River basin were collected from the report of
Water Resource Assessment of North China by the Min-
istry of Water Resources. The nine subbasins are distrib-
uted evenly from south to north and meteorological stations
in these subbasins are shown in Fig. 1. General information
of these nine subbasins is shown in Table 1.
3 Methods
Evaluation methods consist of the following steps which
are described in the following sections:
(1) The long-term average annual evapotranspiration for
the nine sub-basins is calculated using the long-term
water balance equation, which is used as ‘measured’
values and a reference to select the most suitable
equations used in step 2.
(2) Long-term average annual values of actual evapo-
transpiration for each station are calculated using three
different methods (i.e., Schreiber 1904; Ol’dekop
1911; Pike 1964). The most suitable method, the one
having the minimum bias as compared with the values
calculated in step 1, is then used as a reference to
calibrate parameters of the complementary relation-
ship models and the Thornthwaite water balance
model at each station. Among the two complementary
relationship evapotranspiration models, the one which
correctly estimates the annual total and summer
evapotranspiration is selected as the most suitable
complementary relationship model for the basin.
(3) Daily actual evapotranspiration for each station is
calculated by the selected complementary relation-
ship model, and monthly and annual values are
obtained by summing up the daily values.
(4) The Thornthwaite water balance method is used to
calculate actual evapotranspiration for each station as
an alternative method to the complementary relation-
ship model and the results are compared with that of
the selected complementary method in step 2.
(5) The linear regression method and the Mann–Kendall
method (e.g., Fu et al. 2008) are used to calculate the
temporal trend of the actual evapotranspiration
calculated in steps (3) and (4).
(6) The annual and seasonal actual evapotranspiration
values and the temporal trend in actual evapotrans-
piration are regionally mapped using the Cressman
(1959) interpolation method. There are many spatial
interpolation methods available in the literature and
each method has its own advantages and disadvan-
tages depending on the variables to be interpolated
and on the regions, among others.
The selection of the Cressman method in the study is
twofolds, firstly, previous studies (e.g., Xia et al. 1999)
have shown that this method is one of the choices in

Table 1 Basic information of selected nine subbasins in Haihe River Basin

Name of nine subbasins Stations Area (km2) Elevation Land use
range (m)

1. Plain between Zhanghe and Weihe Rivers 2 9300 40–100 Crop

2. West plain of Fuyanghe River 1 7180 30–200 Crop
3. Plain between Hutuohe and Fuyanghe Rivers 2 8205 20–200 Crop
4. Plain located west to Baiyang Lake and south 1 9504 10–200 Crop
to Daqinghe River
5. Plain located east to Baiyang Lake and south 2 11089 0–20 Crop
to Daqinghe River
6. Plain of North branch of Haihe River 1 16232 0–100 Crop
7. Plain of Luanhe River and coast area in Hebei Province 3 7410 0–30 Crop
8. Mountain area of Yongdinghe River 3 45179 300–2000 Crop, shrubs
and grassland
9. Mountain area of Luanhe River 4 44070 100–2000 Shrubs and crop

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interpolating evaporation related parameters, and secondly,
the authors are experienced with this method which makes
it easier to check the correctness of the results.
3.1 Basin-wide long-term average annual actual
evapotranspiration
Actual evapotranspiration data are usually unavailable
because of the limited observations. However, long-term
average annual actual evapotranspiration over a basin can
be reliably estimated by the residual of observed basin-
wide long-term average annual precipitation and stream-
flow (see Eq. 1, Xu and Singh 2004; Özhan et al. 2010),
which are considered as ‘measured’ values to validate the
estimates of other methods:
AE ¼ P þ Q ð1Þ
where P, AE and Q are the long-term average annual
precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and streamflow,
respectively. In this study, nine subbasins in the Haihe
River basin were selected to estimate long-term average
annual actual evapotranspiration.
3.2 Long-term average annual actual
evapotranspiration at stations
Three commonly used methods based on the relationships
between AE/PE and P/PE were used to estimate long-term
average annual actual evapotranspiration for each station,
namely Schreiber (1904), Ol’dekop (1911) and Pike
(1964), which are expressed, respectively, as
  
AE P PE
¼ 1  exp  ð2Þ
PE PE P
 
AE P ranges from 0.05 to 0.3 depending on the time, soil mois-
¼ tanh ð3Þ
PE PE
,sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
 2ffi
AE P P
¼ 1þ ð4Þ
PE PE PE
where AE and P are the same as in Eq. 1, PE is the long-
term average annual potential evapotranspiration calcu-
lated by the Penman–Monteith equation (Chen et al.
2005).
In order to evaluate the accuracy of the three methods
and select the most suitable method for the study area, the
long-term average values calculated by the three methods
are compared with values calculated by the water balance
Eq. 1 in Sect. 3.1, the most suitable equation from Eqs. 2 to
4 is selected. The selected method is used to calibrate the
parameters of the complementary relationship methods and
WB model described in the following section.
659
3.3 Daily actual evapotranspiration estimations based
on complementary methods
The concept of complementary relationship, proposed by
Bouchet (1963) on the basis of empirical observations, states
that the actual evapotranspiration would reduce when a
region changed from a saturated condition to dry and
simultaneously an equal, but opposite, change in potential
evapotranspiration driven by a certain amount of the energy
release. The complementary relationship corrected the mis-
conception that a larger potential evapotranspiration neces-
sarily signifies a larger actual evapotranspiration (Granger
1989). The complementary relationship is described as
ETa þ ETP ¼ 2ETw ð5Þ
where ETa, ETp and ETw are actual, potential and wet
environment evapotranspiration, respectively. ETa is usu-
ally calculated as a residual such as 2ETw  ETp . Two of
the most widely used models AA and GG are applied to the
estimation of actual evapotranspiration in this study.
For AA model, ETwAA is calculated by the partial equi-
librium evapotranspiration equation of Priestley and Taylor
(1972) and regulated to the following form introduced by
Xu and Singh (2005):
D ðRn  Gs Þ
ETwAA ¼ a1 þ b1 ð6Þ
Dþc k
where a1 represents the minimum energy available for
ETwAA ; b1 indicates the capacity of available energy
ðRn  Gs Þ to transform latent heat (Eagleson 2002). Ori-
ginal parameters a1 ¼ 0; b1 ¼ 1:26 are not suitable for
many places in China (e.g., Yang et al. 2009; Xu and Singh
2005) and an underestimation of ETwAA is reported in the
seasons with low or negative net radiation. Rn is the net
radiation near the surface, Gs is soil heat flux, Gs/Rn usually
ture and thermal properties, vegetation amount and height
(Kustas et al. 1993), here Gs ¼ 0:2Rn ; k is the latent heat, D
is the slope of the saturation vapor pressure curve at the air
temperature, c is the psychometric constant, respectively.
Potential evapotranspiration ETpAA is calculated using the
equation introduced by Brutsaert and Stricker (1979).
Then the actual evapotranspiration was calculated as
D ðRn  Gs Þ c
ETaAA ¼ 2a1 þ ð2b1  1Þ  f ðUz Þðes
Dþc k Dþc
 ea Þ
ð7Þ
where es and ea are the saturation vapor pressure and the
actual vapor pressure, f ðUz Þ is a function of the mean
wind speed at a reference level z above the ground,
i.e., f ðUz Þ  f ðU2 Þ ¼ 0:26ð1 þ 0:54U2 Þ, where f ðU2 Þ is
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the same as f ðUz Þ but at 2 m elevation. The calculation
procedures of the above mentioned parameters are pro-
vided by Allen et al. (1998).
For GG model, Granger and Gray (GG) (1989) derived a
modified form of Penman’s equation for estimating the
actual evapotranspiration from different unsaturated land
covers:
DG ðRn  Gs Þ cG
ETaGG ¼ þ Ea ð8Þ
DG þ c k DG þ c
where G is a dimensionless relative evapotranspira-
tion parameter, G ¼ ETa =ETp ; Ea ¼ f ðUz Þðes  ea Þ. The
relationship between G and relative drying power D is
proposed by Xu and Singh (2005) which is modified from
Granger (1998):
1
G¼ þ 0:006D ð9Þ
a2 þ b2 e4:902D
Ea
D¼
Ea þ ðRn  Gs Þ=k
where a2 and b2 are considered as parameters to be cali-
brated in the study.
3.4 Monthly actual evapotranspiration estimated
by the Thornthwaite water balance model
The water balance model (WB) introduced by Thorn-
thwaite and Mather (1955) is used to estimate monthly
actual evapotranspiration. Details on the procedure can be
seen in Gao et al. (2007). As compared with the comple-
mentary relationship models, the influence of soil water
content in addition to climatic factors can be reflected
dynamically, which is important in arid and semi-arid
regions and during the dry season in other climatic regions
for actual evapotranspiration.
3.5 Trend analysis and associated significance test
The slope of linear regression equation with actual
evapotranspiration as dependent variable and time as
independent variable was calculated and the rate of change,
mm/10a was determined. The Mann–Kendall trend test
(Mann 1945; Kendall and Gibbons 1990; Ziegler et al.
2003) was used to test the significance of the trend for
actual evapotranspiration. The rank-based Mann–Kendall
method is a nonparametric and commonly used to assess
the significance of monotonic trends in hydro-meteoro-
logical time series (Zhang et al. 2009). The procedure of
the test starts by simply comparing the most recent data
with earlier values. A score of ?1 is awarded if the most
recent value is larger, or a score of -1 is awarded if it is
smaller. The total score for the time-series data is the
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Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669
Mann–Kendall statistic, Z, which is then compared to a
critical value, Z1-a/2 (where a is significance level, and
Z1-a/2 is the Z value found in the standard normal distri-
bution table), to test whether the trend in the data is sig-
nificant by comparison the computed Z values with the
critical value of Z1-a/2. The advantages of the method are
not assuming any distribution form for the data and less
sensitive to outliers (Mann 1945). The significance level of
the test is 0.05.
4 Results
4.1 Calibration of parameters of the AA, GG and WB
models and verification
4.1.1 Selection of long-term actual evapotranspiration
equations
Figure 2 compares the estimated long-term averaged
annual actual evapotranspiration for the nine subbasins by
the three methods mentioned in Sect. 3.2 with the ‘mea-
sured’ value on basin scale by long-term average annual
water balance (mentioned in Sect. 3.1) during 1956 to
1984. For easy comparison, the point estimations of actual
evapotranspiration from the three methods and WB model
are averaged to get areal mean values for each subbasin.
The estimated long-term average annual actual evapo-
transpiration by the Pike method was between the results
by Schreiber and Ol’dekop methods, and was very close to
the ‘measured’ values with only 2.8% mean absolute rel-
ative errors for the nine subbasins. The Pike method was
chosen to estimate long-term average annual evapotrans-
piration for all stations in the Haihe River basin during
1956–1984 which was then used as the reference value to
calibrate the parameters of the AA, GG and WB methods.
The regional actual evapotranspiration estimated by WB
model with original parameters are about 10% greater than
‘measured’ values, which means that WB model also needs
to be calibrated in the region.
4.1.2 Calibration of parameters and verification
The original parameters of the AA, GG and WB models
were first used to calculate the actual evapotranspiration
and the results were compared with the Pike method. The
mean relative bias and absolute relative errors estimated
under original parameters are listed in the upper part of
Table 2. It is seen that using the original parameter values
the estimated long-term average annual evapotranspiration
by the AA, GG and WB models are 34.2%, 36.1% and
9.8% larger than the values by Pike method, respectively,
which shows that the original parameters are not suitable
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669 661

Fig. 2 Comparison of 600

evapotranspiration during 1956-1984(mm)

estimated regional long-term

Long-term average annual actual

averaged annual actual
evapotranspiration by Schreiber, 550
Ol’dekop, and Pike methods, by
monthly WB models with
500
original parameters and by long-
term averaged annual
precipitation minus runoff at
450
nine subbains during 1956–1984
Schreiber
Ol'dekop
400 Pike
Precipitation-runoff
WB with original parameters
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Subbasins

Table 2 Mean relative bias and absolute relative errors (%) of the model, two parameters are regulated, which are the soil
long-term averaged annual actual evapotranspiration estimated under
original parameters, calibrated parameters and verification conditions moisture content at field capacity and wilting point. As
of the AA, GG and WB models as compared with values calculated mentioned above the main reason that we used Pike
by Pike model in the Haihe River basin method as the reference data for calibrating the parameters
Periods Models Mean relative Mean absolute of WB model, AA and GG models instead of directly using
bias (%) relative errors (%) the runoff data is because runoff is an areal averaged value,
while WB model, AA and GG models work on meteoro-
Original parameters AA 34.2 34.2
(1956–1984) logical stations.
GG 36.1 36.1
The calibration and verification results are also shown
WB 9.8 9.8
in Table 2. Based on the modified parameter values, the
Calibration AA 0.2 0.7
mean relative bias and absolute relative errors decrease to
(1956–1984) GG 0.1 0.4
0.2% and 0.7% for AA, to 0.1% and 0.4% for GG, and
WB 0.0 0.0
to 0 for WB, respectively. The meteorological data from
Verification AA 3.6 7.4 the period of 1985–2000 was used for verification pur-
(1985–2000) GG 0.6 4.6 poses. The mean relative bias and absolute relative errors
WB 1.9 2.6 for the verification period were 3.6% and 7.4% for AA,
The calibration period is from 1956 to 1984. The verification period is 0.6% and 4.6% for GG, 1.9% and 2.6% for WB,
from 1985 to 2000 respectively. Generally, WB model are better than AA
and GG for the long-term annual actual evapotranspira-
for the Haihe River basin, especially for the AA and GG tion estimation.
models.
Using the long-term mean annual actual evapotranspi- 4.2 Monthly variation of actual evapotranspiration
ration calculated by the Pike method as the reference data calculated by AA, GG and WB models
the parameters in the three models are calibrated with trial
and error method and the parameters values gave smallest Figure 3 shows monthly variation of actual evapotranspi-
errors are selected. For the AA model, the b1 value of 1.26 ration averaged over 1960 to 2002 estimated by the AA,
was replaced by a smaller value varying from 1 to 1.23 for GG and the WB models. For comparison purposes, mean
different stations and the value decreased with the increase monthly values of precipitation are also shown in the fig-
in the distance from the sea due to the impact of advection. ure. Long-term average actual evapotranspirations esti-
Similar findings have been reported by Yang et al. (2008). mated by the three methods have a similar monthly
A constant value of 0.15 mm/day was found for parameter variation feature with maximum in summer and minimum
a1, which accounts for large scale advection during seasons in winter. Comparing to WB, the mean absolute errors of
of low or negative net radiation and represents the mini- monthly long-term average actual evapotranspiration are
mum energy available for ETAA w (Xu and Singh 2005). For 7.0 mm and 12.7 mm by the AA and GG models, respec-
the GG model, the constant value 0.793 (Granger 1998) tively. From July to September, the actual evapotranspi-
was replaced by 0.8 and 0.20 was found varying from 0.23 ration is about 16–25 mm underestimated by the GG model
to 0.58 for different stations and to have a positive rela- as compared with WB. From February to May, about
tionship with the distance from coast to inland. In WB 10–23 mm overestimated. For AA model, 14–20 mm

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662
overestimated in May and June but 13 mm underestimated
in October. For the other months, the absolute errors are
less than 10 mm.
From Fig. 3 we can also see that, in spring the estimated
actual evapotranspiration is greater than precipitation. The
additional water used for evapotranspiration mainly comes
from soil water content. In this region, spring is the key
period when a large amount of water is required for crop
growth, drying soil would affect the growth of crops as a
result of large actual evapotranspiration. In July and
August, precipitation is obviously more than actual
evapotranspiration, the surplus of water is partly stored in
the soil. And this leads to more water supply and more
actual evapotranspiration in autumn than that in spring
from WB model. Generally speaking, the monthly varia-
tion of actual evapotranspiration is reasonable. For the
estimations of AA and GG, actual evapotranspiration are
more in spring than in autumn. It is because that monthly
change of water supply from soil are not directly consid-
ered by the AA model and GG model and the change of
actual evapotranspiration mainly depends on the change of
climate factors.
Based on the above analysis of Fig. 3, we can see that
when mean monthly actual evapotranspiration is con-
cerned, the AA model produced more closely seasonal
variations as compared with that of WB model, and the
differences between GG and other two models are larger.
Therefore, in the rest of the paper only the actual evapo-
transpiration calculated by the AA model is selected as a
representative result of the complementary relationship
models. The similarity and differences of AA model with
WB estimations will be discussed in details.
Fig. 3 Comparison of regional
Actual evapotranspiration and precipitation(mm)
mean monthly actual
evapotranspiration averaged
1960–2002 estimated by AA
(AA_ETa), GG (GG_ETa) and
WB (WB_ETa) as well as
precipitation (P)
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Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669
4.3 Seasonal and annual actual evapotranspiration
averaged over 1960–2002 estimated by the WB
and AA model
Seasonal and annual actual evapotranspiration distributions
over the Haihe River basin are shown in Fig. 4 for the WB
model. The differences between the WB and AA estima-
tions are shown in Fig. 5.
It is seen from Fig. 4e that for the annual actual
evapotranspiration estimated by the WB model, a high
center exceeding 540 mm is located in northeastern part of
the Haihe River basin and the maximum value is
572.7 mm. In east and south parts of the Haihe River basin
the actual evapotranspiration is between 460 and 540 mm.
Towards western and northern mountainous regions of the
Haihe River basin, the values decrease gradually, reaching
a minimum of 345.7 mm. A similar pattern is found for the
AA model estimation as can be seen from Fig. 5e that in
most regions the difference of the annual total actual
evapotranspiration is generally smaller than 20 mm except
in the south edge of the basin.
The spatial distribution of annual actual evapotranspi-
ration is consistent with that of annual precipitation (Figure
is omitted). More actual evapotranspiration corresponds to
more precipitation which is a typical feature of semi-arid
climate. The correlation coefficient between long-term
mean annual actual evapotranspiration estimated by the
WB and AA models and precipitation are about 0.98 and
0.95, respectively.
The seasonal actual evapotranspirations estimated by
the WB model (Fig. 4a–d) exhibit different distribution
patterns in different seasons. Actual evapotranspiration in
180
160
WB_ETa
140 AA_ETa
GG_ETa
120 P
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669 663

Fig. 4 Distributions of seasonal

a b
(Spring, Summer, Autumn,
Winter, a–d) and annual
(e) actual evapotranspiration
(mm) in the Haihe River basin
estimated by the WB model
averaged on 1960–2002

c d

summer varies from 212.3 mm to 300.8 mm and occupies
57% of the yearly totals for the WB model. In spring, the
actual evapotranspiration varies from 52.2 mm to
122.8 mm and occupies 18% of the yearly totals. In autumn,
the actual evapotranspiration is greater than that in spring
and occupies 24% of yearly totals. This is because the soil
moisture are obviously wetter after wet summer than that in
spring and provide more water for evapotranspiration when
using the WB model. The highest value is found in the
northeast part and the value is about 140–150 mm, which is

123
664
Fig. 5 Same as in Fig. 4 but for a
differences (mm) between AA
and WB
c d
gradually decreasing towards the north part and the mini-
mum value is about 62.4 mm. In winter, the actual evapo-
transpiration in the region is very small, the maximum is
20.4 mm which is located in the south part. The distribu-
tions of autumn and spring have more similarities to annual
123
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669
b
evapotranspiration than the other seasons with 0.95 and
0.91 correlation coefficient respectively.
The spatial distributions of seasonal actual evapotrans-
piration estimated by the AA model (Figures are omitted)
show similar patterns in general as compared with the WB
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669 665

model. But in spring, the actual evapotranspiration are
generally greater than that in autumn which are different to
WB model. As for the difference between the AA model
and the WB model, negative biases are dominant in autumn
(Fig. 5c) and positive biases are dominant in winter, spring
and summer (Fig. 5a, b, d).
4.4 Trends of actual evapotranspiration
during 1960–2002
The relation between annual actual evapotranspiration and
potential evapotranspiration along with change of annual
precipitation is a manifestation of the complementary rela-
tionship in Haihe River basin from the estimation by WB and
AA models (Figure that reveals the complementary rela-
tionship between potential and actual evapotranspiration is
omitted).
The standardized annual time series for actual evapo-
transpiration calculated by the AA and WB models, pre-
cipitation and the soil moisture averaged over the Haihe
River basin are shown in Fig. 6. Figure 6a shows that all
the four series correspond well with each other. Figure 6b
shows that although with different changing rates, all the
four series are decreasing simultaneously, meaning that in
this semi-arid region, both actual evapotranspiration and
soil moisture are dominated by precipitation. Among these
four series, declining trends of soil moisture is significant.
The sign and the changing rates of actual evapotranspi-
ration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation and soil
moisture are different in different seasons (Table 3). In
Haihe River Basin, climatic factors and water supply are two
controlling factors for the changes of seasonal and annual
actual evapotranspiration. The potential evapotranspiration
reflects energy available for evapotranspiration and is used

Fig. 6 Time series of 4.0

standardized annual actual a AA_ETa
3.0 WB_ETa
evapotranspiration by the AA P
(AA_ETa) and WB (WB_ETa) WB_SM
Standardized values

2.0
models as well as the annual
precipitation (P), annual mean 1.0
soil moisture (WB_SM) during
0.0
1960–2002 at Haihe River basin
(a) and their linear trends (b). -1.0
The significance level of 5% is
used -2.0

-3.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

1.0
b AA_ETa
WB_ETa
0.6 P
WB_SM (Significant)
Linear trends

0.2

-0.2

-0.6

-1.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

Table 3 The change rates of seasonal and annual actual evapotranspiration (ETa ) estimated by the AA model and the WB model, potential
evapotranspiration (ETp ) estimated by AA, precipitation (P) and soil moisture (SM) estimated by WB at Haihe River Basin during 1960–2002

ETaAA ETp ETaWB P SM

Spring 2.6 -6.0* -0.8 1.4 -1.2*

Summer -6.6* -8.2* -6.0 -20.7* -2.8
Autumn -2.3* -0.5 -5.5 -4.7 -3.3
Winter 0.1 -1.1 0.5 -0.3 -2.5*
Annual -6.0 -16.4* -11.7 -23.9 -2.4*
Unit is mm/10a. * The change rate is at 5% significant level

123
666 Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669

to represent the combined effect of climatic factors includ- both annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration
ing solar radiation, wind speed, humidity, and temperature. show decreasing trends which will directly affect the water
The water supply is reflected directly by soil moisture con- supply and available energy for annual actual evapotrans-
tent or indirectly by precipitation. It is seen in Table 3 that piration. The two factors jointly lead to the decreasing actual

Fig. 7 Distributions of
a b
changing rates of seasonal
(Spring, Summer, Autumn,
Winter, a–d) and annual
(e) actual evapotranspiration
(mm/10a) in Haihe River basin
during 1960–2002 estimated by
AA. Triangles indicate stations
with significant trend at the 5%
significance level tested by
Mann–Kendall method

c d

123
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2012) 26:655–669 667

evapotranspiration. Decreasing potential evapotranspiration the AA, GG and WB models are analyzed in the Haihe
has explained by significant declining trends of wind speed River basin. The following conclusions can be drawn:
and solar radiation from Gao et al. (2006). From the changes
• In the Haihe River basin, the results by the AA model
of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, a weakening
are better than those by the GG model considering
feature of the water cycle is expected in the Haihe River
annual and summer months estimations as compared to
basin during 1960–2002, which further supports the view-
the WB model.
point of Gao et al. (2007).
• Annual actual evapotranspirations averaged over
For illustrative purposes, spatial distributions of the
1960–2002 in western and northern mountainous
changing rates of seasonal and annual actual evapotrans-
regions are smaller than those in northeastern part of
piration calculated by the AA model in the Haihe River
the Haihe River basin. Seasonal values are maximum in
basin are shown in Fig. 7a–e. In most areas of the Haihe
summer and minimum in winter. In spring, the values
River basin, the annual actual evapotranspiration showed a
are higher than that in autumn for AA but opposite for
decreasing trend and the changing rate varied from
WB. This is because the AA model based on the concept
-5 mm/10a to -30 mm/10a (Fig. 7e), which has a trend
of complementary relationship between actual and
similar to those of previous studies (Gao et al. 2007; Ni
potential evapotranspiration does not consider the effect
et al. 2007). In some areas at the northeast, southeast and
of the soil moisture which is wetter autumn than that in
northwest parts, increasing trends are found with rates
spring and provides more water for evapotranspiration
being greater than 5 mm/10a. In spring (Fig. 7a), a slightly
when using the WB model.The estimation of seasonal
increasing trend mainly occur in the northern and south-
actual evapotranspiration by the AA model is higher in
eastern parts of the Haihe River basin as a result of the
summer, spring and winter, and smaller in autumn
increasing spring precipitation. Areas with negative trend
comparing to those of the WB model estimations.
mainly located in the southwest part of the basin. In
• Annual actual evapotranspiration from the AA model
summer and autumn, patterns in trends of actual evapo-
based on complementary relationship and WB of water
transpiration are similar to that in annual values with the
balance approach exhibits similar decreasing trends in
same decreasing characteristic (Fig. 7b–c). Over 2/3 sta-
most parts of the Haihe River basin during 1960–2002.
tions have decreasing trends. In winter, the actual evapo-
Decreasing trends in annual precipitation and potential
transpiration increases mainly in the northeastern part and
evapotranspiration directly affect the water supply and
some local stations (Fig. 7d). In the southwest and middle
available energy, respectively. These decreasing trends
areas decreasing trends are found. The trend distributions
jointly lead to a decreasing trend in actual evapotrans-
of summer and spring have more similarities to the annual
piration in the region.
evapotranspiration than the other seasons with 0.95 and
• Similar decreasing trends found in precipitation and soil
0.90 correlation coefficient respectively.
moisture, potential and actual evapotranspiration affect
The index of annual precipitation minus actual evapo-
the water cycle in the Haihe River basin during 1960 to
transpiration means the net water supply to land surface.
2002. Water resources also exhibit decreasing trend.
The long-term averaged annual net water supply during
Under the condition of increasing water demand as the
two periods 1960–1979 and 1980–2002 are compared, and
result of social economic development, which will further
the annual net water supply decreased about 61% and 41%
aggregate the problem of water shortage in the region.
by AA and WB respectively during the second period. This
decreasing feature is consistent with the changes of runoff
in the area with decrements about 40–80% (Zhang et al. Acknowledgments This research is supported by 973 National
Project in China—Mechanism research to water cycle evolution and
2008). high effective utilization of water resources in Haihe River Basin
(2006CB403404), the Ministry of Water Resources’ special funds for
scientific research on public causes, (No. 200901042), the Key Project
5 Conclusions of the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40730632), and the
Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities—the 111
Project of Hohai University. We also would like to thank Dr. Shu-
In this study, two reference data, ‘measured’ long–term iqing Yin, Mr.Tinghai Ou and Ms. Yumei Hu, for their helps on
averaged actual evapotranspiration based on water balance geographic information to make the figures.
model on a regional scale and climatological estimation
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