Submitted by Ihtisham Ahmed

SAP ID: 38144

Subject: Conflict Management and Resolution
BS- International Relations
Assignment No: 2 Amid post-election chaos, new government takes
shape in Pakistan. Discuss
Submitted to Sir Ismail Adarmola Abdul Aziz
Riphah Institute of Public Policy
Riphah International University
Islamabad
 Crisis is an opportunity for statesman or can swallow the last hope of peace.

Background:

The post-election chaos can be traced back to the vote of no confidence against Imran Khan's
government on April 10, 2022. The no-confidence motion, backed by 174 votes in the National
Assembly, led to Imran Khan losing the confidence of the house and ceasing to hold office as prime
minister (BBC).1 Following this event, Imran Khan alleged a conspiracy against him, attributing his
ousting to foreign influences. During subsequent public appearances, he openly criticized the USA and
military officials, blaming them for orchestrating the opposition's no-confidence move. Subsequently, on
May 9, 2023, riots erupted, causing destruction to sensitive government and military facilities,
culminating in Imran Khan's arrest on the same day by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on
allegations related to corruption linked to the Al-Qadir Trust. 2 In the aftermath of the May 9 riots, Imran
Khan claimed in an interview that 10,000 of his party members and workers were arrested, although
Geo News reported that 9,096 were actually detained (Geo News). The observations of Donald Lu,
Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs in the USA, summarized the
situation. Lu testified in Congress that there were serious irregularities in Pakistan's elections, including
the prevention of electables from contesting, voter harassment, and intimidation of party members (Al
Jazeera)3

Post-election chaos,

The results of the February 8th elections came as a shock to all stakeholders in the state. The prevailing
belief was that Nawaz Sharif's recent court relief and warm reception indicated he was poised to
become the next prime minister, with decisions being made in the corridors of power for the upcoming
administration. The PTI, a party riddled with internal fractures, had seemingly lost its popular identity
symbolized by the bat, faced oppression from state machinery, and struggled to hold rallies and
gatherings. It was widely perceived that PTI's political influence was waning. However, the election
results defied expectations. Independent candidates affiliated with PTI secured the majority of seats,
placing PML-N in second despite vigorous leadership campaigns, with PPP in third (as reported by Al-
Jazeera)4. The controversy surrounding these forms suggests that there were allegations of election
manipulation or engineering. Form 45 is the Statement of the Count (of votes) while Form 47 is the
Provisional Consolidated Statement of Results of the Count. Issues related to discrepancies, tampering,
or irregularities in these forms raised concerns about the integrity of the electoral process. 5 Finally, no
single party achieved the required 169 seats to form a government, aligning with President Zardari's
prediction that the 2024 government would be a national unity government (as reported by The Express

1
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61055210
2
https://www.geo.tv/latest/491585-fact-check-how-many-people-have-been-arrested-post-may-9-riots
3
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/20/ahead-of-congressional-hearing-us-worried-over-pakistan-
electoral-abuse#:~:text=In%20his%20written%20statement%2C%20Lu,rights%2C%20including%20religious
%20freedom%E2%80%9D.
4
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/12/pakistan-post-election-crisis-live-parleys-and-protests-
after-tense-vote
5
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2464895/pti-demands-immediate-release-of-imran-khan
Tribune)6. Subsequently, we witnessed Shahbaz securing 179 seats through a coalition with other
parties, surpassing the required threshold for forming the government.

Now, in this stage, we can analyze the Pakistan’s political situation from the two lenses: the first one:
pessimistic and second one: optimistic.

 Pessimistic Perspective: The current government faces significant challenges, including a

persistent stalemate between the PTI and opposition parties over the legitimacy of the electoral
mandate. Additionally, the coalition regime is vulnerable to potential disruptions by other
parties. The sudden shift in JUI-F's policy towards normalizing relations with PTI may further
escalate the existing crisis. Meanwhile, the public is already burdened by excessive taxes and
rising utility prices, creating fertile ground for mass demonstrations and protests. Pakistan,
which has made progress in overcoming the scourge of terrorist attacks, now finds itself on the
brink of social and political upheaval akin to a volcano ready to erupt at any moment, leading to
potential catastrophic consequences. Amidst this uncertainty, many feel disheartened,
particularly the youth, who were once inspired by Imran Khan's charismatic leadership but now
face disillusionment.
 Optimistic Lens: According to democratic evolution theory, the current tenure presents an
opportunity for the evolution of democracy in Pakistan. The PML-N-led coalition government
faces a tough challenge from a well-prepared PTI opposition that has overcome previous
government obstacles. This opposition is poised to provide strong checks and balances, a
positive aspect of the government's situation. In international politics, the opposition is often
seen as a government-in-waiting, and this cycle may repeat in Pakistan. The government's focus
on addressing unprecedented political and economic challenges by providing relief to the
people through measures aimed at reducing inflation is commendable. The inflation rate, which
stood at 29%7 in 2023, has decreased to 17%8 as of April 2024 due to these efforts.

6
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2447739/zardari-envisions-national-unity-govt-post-elections
7
https://www.statista.com/statistics/383760/inflation-rate-in-pakistan/
8
https://twitter.com/GovtofPakistan/status/1785998687224615216