After Months as a Covid Success

Story, China Tries to Tame Delta

The government has imposed lockdowns and is
testing and tracing aggressively to fight a new
outbreak. Experts say it is time for the country to
rethink its approach to the virus.
Aug. 4, 2021

Residents waiting to get tested in Wuhan, China, on Tuesday.Agence France-Presse —

Getty Images

In the battle against the coronavirus, few places seemed as confident

of victory as China.

The country of 1.4 billion people had eradicated the virus so quickly
that it was one of the first in the world to open up in spring last year.
People removed their masks and gathered for pool parties. In recent
months, the government has contended with sporadic outbreaks in
various provinces, but stamped them out swiftly by mobilizing
thousands of people to test and trace infections, as well as locking
down communities.

That model is now looking increasingly fragile in a world that passed a

grim milestone on Wednesday: the 200 millionth recorded case of
infection.

China is facing its biggest challenge since the virus first erupted in the
Chinese city of Wuhan last year: the highly transmissible Delta variant
that is rapidly spreading throughout the country. Chinese officials have
acknowledged that curbing this outbreak will be much harder than the
others, owing to the fast and asymptomatic spread of the variant.

Globally, the virus is continuing to infect at an astonishing rate. It took

more than a year for the pandemic to reach its 100 millionth case, and
little more than six months to double that.

While the number of cases in China are still relatively low compared to
the United States and elsewhere, these new outbreaks — happening in
cities such as Nanjing, Wuhan, Yangzhou and Zhangjiajie — are
showcasing the limitations of China’s zero-tolerance approach to
Covid. They may also undermine the ruling Communist Party’s
argument that its authoritarian style has been an unquestionable
success in the pandemic.

A temporary laboratory used for coronavirus testing last week in Nanjing, where the
recent Delta cases first appeared.Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Although the government had to stamp out a Delta flare-up in June in

Guangdong Province, authorities this time are dealing with a much
larger spread. Since the current Delta outbreak started on July 21, the
number of cases has risen to 483, more than the sum total of
infections from the first five months of the year. By Tuesday afternoon,
the virus had spread to 15 of the 31 provinces and autonomous
regions in China.

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“Once it reaches so many provinces, it’s very hard to mitigate,” said

Chen Xi, an associate professor of public health at Yale University. “I
think this would be surprising and shocking to the rest of the world.
Such a powerful government has been breached by Delta. This will be
a very important lesson — we cannot let our guard down.”

Last week, Sun Chunlan, a vice premier of China, blamed “ideological

laxity” for the Delta outbreaks and urged officials to step up their
prevention efforts. “We cannot relax for a moment,” Ms. Sun said.

Some public health experts in the country say it is time for China to
rethink its Covid strategy. In a recent essay, Zhang Wenhong, who
advises the Chinese government on dealing with Covid-19, floated the
idea of following a model similar to that of Israel and Britain, in which
vaccination rates are high and people are willing to live with infections.

A pool party in Wuhan last summer, after China eradicated the virus.Reuters

For now, China has stuck to the same strict playbook. Across the
country, the government has instructed people not to travel unless
necessary. In the cities of Zhangjiajie and Zhuzhou, 5.4 million people
have been barred from leaving their homes. Roughly 13 million
residents in the city of Zhengzhou, the site of deadly floods in July,
had to stand in line for virus testing starting last weekend.

In Nanjing, where the recent Delta cases first appeared, millions of

residents have had to participate in four rounds of testing.

“It’s just torturing the masses,” said Jiang Ruoling, a resident in

Nanjing, who has been tested four times in the last three weeks. Ms.
Jiang, who works in real estate, said she understood the need for
testing, but was still critical of officials for failing to control the latest
outbreak. “The leaders are actually wasting resources and everyone’s
time,” she said.

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on

Foreign Relations, said China’s “containment-based” strategy would
not work in the long run, particularly as new variants continue to
emerge. “It will become extremely costly to sustain such an approach,”
he said.

A vaccination event in Wuhan in June. Part of the challenge for Beijing is that the Chinese-
made vaccines are not as effective against the Delta variant.Getty Images

And yet China appears unwilling to take any chances. In Wuhan, the
authorities on Tuesday started testing all 12 million residents after only
three cases of the Delta variant were discovered. The cities of
Sanmenxia and Zhuhai have also begun mass testing. In Beijing, where
there are five infections, train service from 23 cities has been
canceled.

Jennifer Huang Bouey, a senior China policy expert and an

epidemiologist at the RAND Corporation, said that even with strict
controls, it may not be realistic for officials in China to get these latest
cases down to zero. “I think they may have to prepare people for a
higher tolerance of Covid,” Dr. Huang said.

Part of the challenge for Beijing is that the Chinese-made vaccines

being used to immunize the country are not as effective against the
Delta variant as other shots. The government says it has already
administered about 1.69 billion doses. Health officials are now
considering giving booster shots to people with compromised immune
systems as well as older citizens.

A residential area in Yangzhou that was restricted after the recent outbreak.Agence
France-Presse — Getty Images

Zhong Nanshan, a top epidemiologist, said China’s vaccines are 100

percent protective against severe disease caused by Delta, and 63.2
percent effective against asymptomatic cases. He said he was
confident that the latest outbreak would be controlled in about 10 to
14 days, during which officials hope to carry out extensive contact
tracing in Nanjing and several other cities in Jiangsu Province.

The current Delta cases have been linked to a flight from Moscow that
landed in Nanjing on July 10. Seven passengers on the flight were
infected with the variant. On July 20, nine airport cleaners tested
positive. Their infections spread quickly among people who entered
the airport, a major transportation hub.

A mother and daughter and a 12-year-old girl who flew to Zhangjiajie

after transiting for two hours in the Nanjing airport have all tested
positive. Three other tourists who traveled to Zhangjiajie have been
linked to an outbreak in the central city of Changde, after they all took
a river cruise. About 27 infections in at least six places have been
linked to the boat ride.

Cases have also spread in Yangzhou among “chess and card” rooms
— poorly ventilated spaces where many older patrons gather to play
mahjong, chess and cards. Local officials are offering rewards of
several thousand renminbi to whistle-blowers who find and report on
people who have been in these rooms.

The Beijing subway during rush hour on Wednesday. Officials have allowed people to
continue using public transportation during the Delta outbreak.Noel Celis/Agence France-
Presse — Getty Images

“The situation has not yet bottomed out,” Wu Zhenglong, the governor
of Jiangsu Province, said at a news conference on Sunday. “The
prevention and control situation is severe and complicated.”

Han Xiaoyi, a 23-year-old resident in Nanjing, said she was furious at

the way the government had initially handled the Delta outbreak in her
city. Officials have allowed people to continue going to work in
crowded subways and buses, she said.

Ms. Han, who works in sales, has had to take time off to stand in line
for hours to get tested four times in recent days. “When it started, I felt
really depressed because at first, it felt like the pandemic was far away
from me,” she said. “Then suddenly, it felt like it was back in my midst.”