Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 13

18 April 2024

Published by
Profercy Phosphates Ltd
Editors: Tom Jago, Tom McIvor

Q2 India phosacid deal agreed down $20pt at $948pt cfr; World Producer Position
Chinese suppliers struggle to hold $530pt fob DAP; US World DAP MAP NP, NPK snapshot
NOLA DAP recovers; Europe DAP dips; Brazil MAP holds
Exporter Prod* +/- Kt
From last week: DAP/MAP prices again declined across the majority of markets last
week with India DAP and US NOLA DAP prices down as much as $50pt and $200pst USA (FL, NC) 640 +125
respectively in just five weeks. China made its first major attempt to halt the crash, Mexico 80 +40
setting a target price floor at $530pt fob despite high export availability for May/June.
Russia 640 +260
Overview: The DAP/MAP market took a breath after the latest slump in prices with only
slight declines in Europe, flat prices in Brazil and even slight gains at US NOLA. India Lithuania =0 =0
DAP prices continue to come under pressure despite China’s attempts to hold $530pt fob, Morocco 845 +300
with traders offering prices more reflective of $510pt fob. Sales are slow with DAP/MAP
export availability set to jump up 700-750,000t for May loading v April as planned and Tunisia 55 +25
unplanned maintenance in Saudi Arabia and the US comes to an end, China enters the
Saudi Arabia 360 +50
larger tranche 2 of its CIQ quota, and OCP’s capacity reaches 15Mt phosphate fertilizers.
Australia 80 =0
West of Suez prices: The recent US DAP/MAP price slump at NOLA stabilised this
week and DAP even saw a relatively sharp bounce for April activity to $535-550pst fob Jordan 60 =0
from $500-530pst. DAP bids have since been rejected at earlier low-end price targets at
China (port store) 1,965 +500
$490pst fob with forward paper activity for May/June still seen as low as $470-480pst fob.
Brazil MAP prices also held as limited availability and tight stocks continue to be balanced April-open
4,725 +1,300
Net stock change
by reduced demand on weak affordability/barter ratios, with deals again reported at
* Output projected for March 2023
$572pt cfr and rumoured as high as $575pt cfr. Europe DAP is under pressure on limited
demand with Benelux/N.France down $5pt to $645-650pt fca with OCP selling limited volumesComment:
to the region at $620-630pt cfr.

East of Suez prices: Attempts by Chinese DAP suppliers to halt price declines are struggling this week as traders offer lower prices in
latest tenders ahead of an expected surge in availability for May/June loading. Last week, Chinese
xxxxsuppliers reportedly targeted a $530pt
fob DAP price floor after a $65pt drop in prices over five weeks, with most Chinese suppliers now
xxx pegging prices at $530-540pt fob.
However, multiple traders indicate availability now at $520pt fob, while latest reported offers toSept-open
Indonesia at $530-535pt cfr and to
producer position estimates as
India rumoured as low as $525-530pt cfr each reflect closer to $510pt fob China. Furthermore, abovethe majority
reflect theofoverall
Indian buyersinremain
downturn volume
absent with no margins at the current Kharif Maximum Retail Prices/Nutrient-Based Subsidy DAP rates
trade, above $500pt
as exporters continuecfr imports.
to hold back.
Export line ups from the main sources are
India’s first Q2 phosacid price reported: CIL reported it agreed its second quarter phosphoric acidsuggesting
thinning, contractthat
with JPMC
those at $948pt
without major
cfr 100% P2O5, marking a $20pt decline on Q1. Notably, this price reflects more like a $40-50ptlocal
drop markets will either be cutting output from
for some suppliers’ netbacks
India against January 2024 due to surging freight costs on the Red Sea crisis. Based on latest other raw at
(unlikely material prices and
today’s margins) current
or gradually
NBS/MRP rates the new price still represents a $10-15pt loss to produce DAP in India via phosacidaccumulating
though itunsold stock.good margins for
provides
NP/NPK production. DAP production via phosphate rock in India is currently providing healthy margins. Collectively, India’s domestic
East, NOLA Q4 DAP paper at $638 cfr USG
DAP production looks likely to provide well higher margins than imported DAP in April/May, supporting
metric equivdomestic
compares production rates.
to last- done for prompt
business in India in the low $630s cfr.
US DAP vs crops: Corn, soybeans unchanged; Tampa flat; NOLA DAP drop stabilises 1,800
Crop markets: Forward corn values have
1200 consoliated to an unusually flat line of $5.60-
5.65/bu all the way to 2022. 1,500
2022.
1000
months. 1,200
DAP pt fob Tampa & NOLA

Corn,
Soybeans c/bu

800 re-setting nearby futures back into the


900
$5.50s/bu for corn into the $13.90s/bu for
soybeans(chart below).
600
600

400 300
Crop markets: July futures expiry this week
across all major crops brings the anticipated
CME Soybeans DAP fob Tampa DAP fob NOLA (metric equiv) CME Corn
but still sharp transition to new-season US
200 crop values. September corn is now the0prime
© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, storednearby
in a retrieval
reference trading in the mid $5.60s/bu
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. and beans in the $13.90s/bu (chart below) 01
US export DAP 2007-2023: 16 years Tampa DAP price track spanning 2 similar out-size rallies,
two subsequent corrections, and ultimately two rebound periods
1,275

1,225
US DAP export values have now been largely flat for six months.
However, recent large discounts againt domestic prices have gone,
1,175
Tampa export values are now as much as $50pt above NOLA netbacks
to Tampa on the cross-gulf trade route
1,125

1,075

1,025

975

925

875

825
$ pt fob Tampa

775

725

675

625

575

525

475

425

375

325

275

225

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 02
125,000t DAP, MAP, MES. Brazil continues to be the
North America prime destination for Mosaic export volumes. Other 1H
April exports have been for various smaller lots to East
US domestic: DAP, MAP trades have come in brief Canada, Colombia, and other LatAm markets.
bursts this week, with each grade unusually diverging in
price. DAP saw a relatively sharp bounce early in the • US February DAP/MAP exports rise: The US
week – which it has held through press time – with prices exported 269,812t DAP/MAP in February, a 32% rise
up on both low and high to give a mid-point increase of on 205,034t exported February 2023, according to
$27.5pst fob. MAP conversely was quiet most of the latest DOC data. However, DAP/MAP exports in the
week, seeing more activity right ahead of press time. first two-months of 2024 fell 9.7% yr-on-yr to 418,405t
Prices were up at the low, down at the high for a net and US fertilizer year DAP/MAP exports from July
week-on-week price cut of $6pst fob at the midpoint. 2023 through February 2024 were down 14% at 1.7Mt
from 1.9Mt. Of the 90,137t DAP exported in the first
• DAP: New DAP business at NOLA is heard traded at two-months of 2024, 26,906t went to Uruguay, 25,732t
lows of $535-538pst fob barge for open-origin tonnage, went to Brazil and 10,548t went to Colombia. Of the
and at up to $550pst fob for Mosaic product. All of these 328,268t MAP exported in Jan-Feb, 270,850t went to
price points were thought to be for April material. The full Canada, 34,366t to Australia and 11,175t to Brazil.
assessment range for the week at $535-550pst fob is up
from $500-530st fob last week. DAP bids have since US phosphates CVDs; Court timeline: The following
come in at earlier low-end price targets at $490pst fob, date sequence sets out the path forward on US
but as seen last week, these were rejected. Inland values phosphates CVD determinations (italics deadlines
continue to hold up, maintaining solid margins on prompt already passed, green yet to come). This is information
refill DAP barges taken at NOLA. first tabulated in our reporting in early February.

• MAP started slow at NOLA this week, then ahead of 17 January 2024: The International Trade
press time took a sharp dive ending below DAP values. Commission (ITC) was directed by the Court of
New April barge business is heard at $518-520pst fob, International Trade (CIT) to file its remand
giving way after various unsuccessful offers into the redetermination within 120 days of the date of this
$540s pst fob, with initial bids earlier in the week said decision.
around $530pst fob. Since the $518-520pst fob trades, all
bids have since been withdrawn. • The outcome of this, at the above-mentioned 17
January deadline, was ITC upholding its initial
• TSP at NOLA is heard barely traded, but with values finding, namely that the US industry did indeed
eroded lower following the DAP, MAP trajectory. New suffer harm from the import origins now subject to
values are said in the low $430s pst fob NOLA. CVD tariffs. This was after a 120-day period to file
its remand redetermination within 120 days of end
• US fert-year DAP/MAP imports gain: The US September court ruling. That deadline was
imported 405,528t DAP/MAP in February, up from reached in early January. In its response to this,
139,495t in February 2023, according to latest DOC data.
The figures bring Jan-Feb DAP/MAP imports to 623,307t, 16 February: Plaintiff, in this case OCP, had 30
up from 297,614t and means US fertilizer year imports days from the above remand redetermination - ie until
from July 2023 through February 2024 were up 81% at 16 February - to file any comments to this remand.
1.9Mt from 1.0Mt. While a notable surge, the 2022/2023
fertilizer year imports were historically low. Of the 1 March: Plaintiff Intervenors, Phosagro & two
420,452t DAP imported in the first two-months of 2024, leading US importers, and the Consolidated Plaintiff
205,056t came from Saudi Arabia, 139,658t from Jordan, (Eurochem, North America) then had 14 days to file
38,581t from Egypt and 36,294t from Mexico. Of the their own comments from the Plaintiff (OCP)’s
202,855t MAP imported in Jan-Feb, 74,347t came from comment filing deadline.
Mexico, 48,502t from Saudi Arabia, 47,040t from Tunisia
and 29,899t from Senegal. • 30 March: The Commission was due to file its
comments within 30 days of the filing of Plaintiff-
US export: Activity continues out of Tampa, now with 7 Intervenors’ and the Plaintiff’s comments.
vessels so far this month for an April total around

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 03
• 14 April: Defendant-Intervenors, Mosaic & Simplot, CBOT soybeans are down 2.2% to $11.53 per bushel
shall file their comments within 14 days of the filing of the with slight gains through March now lost. Soybean
Commission’s comments. prices are down 35% on the highs of mid-2022 and are
roughly 35% above prices in mid-2020.
• 14 May: Plaintiff - again, OCP - shall have the option to
make a further filing in reply to these Defendant- Middle East Crisis: The ongoing crisis in the Middle
Intervenor comments. East escalated over the weekend as Tehran launched
a large-scale missile and drone attack at Israel directly
This is believed to be the final date for any comments from Iran for the first time. The situation remains tense,
before a final CIT ruling. As we first published as far back opening further dangers to the fertilizer industry on
as September 2023 - and repeated again in early shipping, supply and costs if the conflict escalates.
February 2024; “We doubt Russian nor Moroccan DAP, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also seized an Israeli/UK-
MAP, NPs will feature in the US until such time as a linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz for the first
ruling to remove CVDs emerging. As above, the filing time in this crisis on 13 April. The MSC Aries is
schedule allows for comments to be submitted as late as operated by Mediterranean Shipping Company and
14 May, too late for imports to make any sense for spring was travelling from the UAE to India.
season 2024.” This has so far proved to be the case.
Iran has spoken about the possibility of challenging
• Central Florida: Mosaic last week said it is holding its freedom of navigation or even closing the Hormuz
prevailing Central Florida offers at $630pst fot ex works Strait if the situation escalates. Such an event would
for DAP, and at $655pst fot for MAP. have major impacts on the phosphates industry,
effectively cutting off the main port for Saudi Arabian
phosphate fertilizers Ras Al Khair, not to mention the
impact on nitrogen and global oil prices. The ongoing
Agriculture & logistics Red Sea crisis had already been expanding in recent
weeks with attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militia recently
seen in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean as the
WASDE/CONAB latest: April’s WASDE report put US
group seeks to further restrict movement of Israeli-
corn ending stocks at 2.12 billion bushels, down 50
affiliated ships now traveling via the Cape of Good
million bushels from last month’s estimates due to greater
Hope route. Attacks on vessels have now occurred
corn used for ethanol, feed and residual use. US
over 70 times in the region since the start of the War in
soybean ending stocks are estimated at 340 million
Gaza, including on three phosphate-carrying vessels.
bushels, up 25 million bushels due to lower exports. The
USDA’s April soybean production and beginning stocks
for the US were left unchanged while forecast imports
were trimmed to 25 million bushels. The USDA also Brazil
raised its forecast for 1 June all-wheat ending stocks by
25 million bushels. Brazil: MAP prices are unchanged this week at $570-
572pt cfr as limited availability and tight stocks
Argentina’s production estimate for soybean was held at continue to be balanced by reduced demand on weak
50Mt with corn production estimates slightly lower at affordability/barter ratios. Russian MAP sales totalling
55Mt. Brazil’s corn production forecast was unchanged at 5,500t for May loading are reported at $572pt cfr
124Mt with soybean production at 155Mt, also flat, following a sale of 6,000t Russian MAP for May-
according to the WASDE report. Brazil’s Conab, on the loading at $572pt cfr last week. OCP also reports it
other hand, slightly lowered its April Brazil soybean sold 5-7,000t MAP for May loading to Brazilian buyers
production estimate to 146.52Mt inland at $575-578pt cfr equivalent. A number of
buyers continue to indicate availability for large
Crop Prices: May CBOT wheat prices are now at $5.46 cargoes at $570pt cfr. Last week, Mosaic reported it
per bushel, down 3.0% over the last week and down sold another 7,000t MA in multiple deals inland at
roughly 60% since March 2022. These prices are now prices reflecting $580pt cfr equivalent while Purefert
just 11-13% above wheat values in mid-2020. May CBOT recently indicated it had increased offers for May
corn prices are largely flat this week at $4.31 per bushel. loading Russian MAP sales to Brazil to $575pt cfr.
Corn prices are down roughly 50% since the highs of Ma’aden is shipping a further 75,000t MAP to Brazil in
April 2022 but are up 27-29% on mid-2020 values. May

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 04
April under formula prices with another roughly 80,000t Argentina/Uruguay: Bulk DAP/MAP prices to
MAP under formula to Brazil for May loading. Argentina/Uruguay are still generally indicated around
$600pt cfr, with small volume prices indicated at $605-
• MAP11-44: Trader offers of Chinese 11-44 to Brazil 610pt cfr. These continue to reflect a roughly $30pt
edged lower this week to $470pt cfr with no new sales premium to Brazil MAP. Purefert recently sold 30,000t
and bids reported down to roughly $460pt cfr. Offers had Russian MAP to Argentina/Uruguay on a fob basis for
been as high as $480pt cfr three weeks ago. Reports H1 March loading. The decline in China DAP
suggest a number of 11-44 cargoes have been secured indications to as low as $530pt fob may put some
by traders from China for late April/May loading at $435- downward pressure on the market, though volumes at
445pt fob. these prices are unlikely to arrive until May at the
earliest.
MAP availability limited: A lack of MAP
imports/production in the first quarter and notable stock Chile: After a long absence of new import phosphates,
drain is reported by multiple market participants. MAP there are understood to be two cargoes of incoming
imports in January and February fell 31% yr-on-yr to MAP & DAP - one each from Morocco and China –
477,291t while Mosaic reports its Latin American sales due for end-April/May arrival. These are through two
volumes in Jan-Feb dropped 15% yr-on-yr. Inland prices traders/distributors. These are the first import lots
for MAP are seen largely flat on a cfr equivalent basis landing since late February, when the last cargo of
than the current cfr price. Limited cargoes are set for DAP & MES from the US. Reports suggest TSP may
arrival through April too, with Mosaic’s Riverview incident also be included to Chile in the OCP cargo.
likely to further limit near-term MAP/MES cargoes to the
market. This is limiting any downside pressure in the
market from very low affordability at current prices.
Europe, Russia
Brazil TSP: OCP recently reported its latest TSP sales
Northwest Europe: Northwest Europe DAP prices are
inland in Brazil are at $420-425pt cfr equivalent. Most
largely flat on a euro basis but down somewhat on a
sources peg the Brazil TSP price unchanged at $415-
dollar basis on latest exchange rates. Small volume
420pt cfr this week, with the low end from China.
activity in Benelux/Northern France is still reported at
€605-610pt fca though this reflects a $5pt decline to
Serra Do Salitre starts selling: EuroChem started up its
$645-650pt fca this week with offers generally reported
new phosphate fertilizer plant in Serra Do Salitre in Brazil
at $650pt fca equivalent. Germany DAP prices are
on 13 March, according to Brazilian news outlets.
seen as low as $630-635pt fca with offers at roughly
Reports last week suggest first sales volumes were
$645pt fca. UK/Ireland import offers are still indicated
concluded from the site to Brazilian buyers. The 1Mt
as high as $655pt cfr with 20,000t DAP arriving to
MAP/NP/TSP/SSP operation is expected to take at least
Ireland from Morocco in April. Affordability remains a
18 months to ramp up to full capacity once operational,
major issue in the region with blenders and distributers
with some indications of an initial target of 500,000t/year
cautious that low crop prices will limit planting rates.
finished fertilizers.
OCP reports it sold 5,000t DAP to Western Europe at
$620-630pt cfr for April/May loading. The company
also sold below 5,000t DAP to Western Europe for

Other Latin America April loading at $645-655pt dat.

Mexico: DAP prices to Mexico are reported at $575- East Europe/Turkey: DAP offers from Egypt to
580pt cfr this week, marking a $25pt decline over the last Eastern Europe are now reported at roughly $605-
two weeks. Offers from China are now indicated at $575- 610pt cfr but demand is severely lacking in the region
585pt cfr with reports of a further sale in this range for with buyers deferring until June/July under
late April/early May loading. Two weeks ago, Purefert expectations of further price declines in the near-term.
sold a further 30,000t DAP for April shipment to West Turkey’s Igsas is reportedly in the market for a roughly
Coast Mexico at roughly $605pt cfr. Pemex recently 10,000t DAP cargo, with Turkish buyers understood to
indicated it is looking to increase fertilizer production in be bidding below $600pt cfr.
2024 after a slump in volumes since 2021. Latest export
prices for DAP to the US currently netback at $555-570pt Europe TSP: Northwest Europe TSP is now reported
fob. at €460-470pt fca or roughly $490-500pt fca though

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 05
activity remains only for small volume sales. Distributers 1.9%. Production of phosphate-based fertilizers in
are targeting a further drop for the new season in France 2023 rose 2.0% yr-on-yr to 8.4Mt with DAP/MAP
with bids indicated as low as $425-430pt fca and production up 8.4% to a record 4.5Mt.
unconfirmed rumours of Egyptian availability for May as
low as $450pt fca. New offers for May have yet to be
reported from ICL.
Africa
Russia: DAP/MAP activity remains somewhat limited Morocco: OCP reported below 10,000t new
from Russia with prices largely flat this week. Further phosphate fertiliser sales from Morocco this week, with
MAP sales were reported for May loading to Brazil from less than 40,000t DAP/MAP/TSP sales officially
Russia at $572pt cfr or $522pt fob and are now rumoured reported in the last six weeks. This compares with
as high as $575pt cfr. Purefert’s latest Russian DAP production capacity for the same period of 1.6Mt
sales to European markets for April/May loading are phosphate fertilizer in Morocco. April loading sales are
indicated at $640-645pt fca, or roughly $580pt fob. Two now indicated at roughly 750,000t, likely leaving
weeks ago, the company also sold a further 30,000t DAP roughly 100,000t availability for April loading with high
to West Coast Mexico for April shipment at prices netting volumes of availability likely for May as Africa NPK
back roughly $520pt fob. India DAP prices now netback sales and Canada MAP activity likely slows. OCP
to Russia at roughly $475pt fob though no sales have exported roughly 850,000t in April 2023.
been confirmed to the region since a 30,000t DAP deal to
RCF for March loading two months ago at roughly $535pt • DAP: This week OCP sold 5,000t DAP to Western
fob. Europe at $620-630pt cfr for April/May loading,
reflecting $595-600pt fob Morocco. The company also
• Price Assessments: The Russia Baltic DAP price is sold below 5,000t DAP to Western Europe for April
assessed down $2-3pt at $520-580pt fob with the low- loading at $645-655pt dat. Latest indications from
end reflecting latest sales to Mexico and the high end for western Europe suggest bulk sales over 5,000t DAP to
Europe. Russia MAP prices are assessed flat at $522- the region would now be no higher than $590-595pt
550pt fob with the low end the return from Brazil and the fob with some reports of offers to eastern
high end from Europe. Europe/Turkey at $590pt fob seeing little interest.
Latest India DAP prices now reflect below $500pt fob
PhosAgro completes Volkhov production facility Morocco though there are no confirmed indications of
overhaul: PhosAgro has now completed the overhaul of offers/sales to the region yet below $530pt fob. The
its Volkhov production facility in Leningrad oblast, the Morocco DAP price is pegged at an indicative $530-
company confirmed on 6 March. The investment project, 595pt fob, down $5pt.
which started in March 2019, has now brought total
fertilizer production at Volkhov to over 1Mt, understood to • MAP: Latest Brazil MAP activity from OCP is
include roughly 900,000t/year MAP. The Volkhov site, reported at prices reflecting $550-555pt fob for
which has its origins in an aluminium facility built in 1932, April/May arrival after a further 5-7,000t MAP was
includes new plants for the extraction of phosphoric and reported sold inland Brazil at $575-578pt cfr equivalent
sulphuric acid, for the production of water-soluble this week. The Morocco MAP price is pegged
fertilizers, new storage facilities and a waste process unchanged at $550-595pt fob.
steam recovery plant which can meet more than 80% of
the site’s electricity needs. Processing of phosphate rock • US CVD-paid netbacks fall below current range
at the site is set to reach 1.5Mt with phosphoric acid with 7.41% duty: Any DAP/MAP sales to the US
production reaching 500,000t. President Vladimir Putin would now likely netback below the low end of OCP’s
took part in the launch of the complex by video current DAP/MAP sales ranges. This is not to say OCP
conferencing, Interfax reports. Volkhov has been ramping was planning to ship DAP/MAP to the US in the near-
up MAP production since 2020 with at least 800,000t term (likely focusing on TSP only). Most likely, with the
MAP likely produced at the site in 2023. court process ongoing OCP will elect to stay out for
DAP/MAP as it has throughout the entire CVD period.
• Company targeting further production rise:
PhosAgro plans to increase fertilizer output to at least • TSP: TSP prices from OCP are assessed down $5pt
11.5Mt in 2024, CEO Mikhail Pybnikov told reporters on 6 this week as high-end European TSP prices edge
March. PhosAgro recently confirmed it reached record lower. Last week, OCP has reportedly offered 20,000t
fertilizer production of 11.3Mt in the full year 2023, up

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 06
TSP to Chile for April loading at prices reflecting $370- higher volumes of DAP availability on reduced
375pt fob with tester cargo sales to India and Ethiopia seasonal MAP import demand from the USA. Latest
(see below) also rumoured as low as $370-375pt fob. forward DAP prices for the US also now reflect no
Latest Brazil TSP prices are understood to netback at higher than $560pt fob Tunisia.
$395pt fob while latest TSP prices in Europe reflect no
higher than $430pt fob with buyers bidding at prices as Egypt: DAP offers to Europe from Egypt are now
low as $380-390pt fob. The Morocco TSP price is reported at $580-590pt fob with limited volumes
assessed at $375-430pt fob with the average return available for April loading. Forward US DAP prices
$160pt below the Morocco DAP average. likely reflect no higher than $555pt fob Egypt.

Morocco TSP - New market penetration, trial cargoes: Kenya – KTDA tender: The Kenya Tea Development
With OCP commissioning its third new 1Mtpa TSP Agency closed a retender for 96,988t NPK26-5-5 on
capacity unit at Jorf Lasfar at the end of Q1 2024 (the 17 April. The new tender went out to eight participants
historical key TSP base was in Safi), new markets are with four offers received. The L1 came from Fersol ex-
understood to be in line for trial cargoes: Uralchem at $409.35pt cfr liner-out bagged, with
Licacri ex-Russia at $424pt cfrlo, SLDR ex-Russia at
• India: The first cargo of TSP to India is heard to be in $455.12pt cfrlo and Ameropa ex-Romania at
preparation to ship from OCP. Rather than being under $490.46pt cfrlo. The tender, which is now likely for
last year’s frame contract settled with a major delivery into July/August, had originally been set to
government importer, this is heard to be from OCP to one close on 21 February and has repeatedly been pushed
of its jv/partner companies in India. The cargo is believed back.
to be for as much as 30,000t, to load from new capacity
out of Jorf is thought to be for May arrival in India. • Background: The decision to retender came after
the L1 offeree in KTDA’s 26 March round, Chiromo
• Ethiopia: The first cargo of TSP – apparently on a trial Fertilizer ex-Uralchem at $400pt cfr liner-out bagged,
basis – into Ethiopia is set to complete as a part-lot of did not accept the LOI with Uralchem noting they did
around 10,000t in an upcoming large capsize for a total not support the offer, according to market participants.
75,000t mostly carrying NPS against the 2023-24 The second lowest offer in the previous round came
contract for NPS to EABC. The presence of TSP in the from Fersol Ltd ex-Uralchem at $428.85pt cfr liner-out
Ethiopian phosphates import mix (and how trial bagged.
applications are assessed) raises an interesting question
on how Ethiopian tenders may be structured in future
years.
Middle East
First quarter fertilizer exports: OCP maintained high
comparative rates of fertilizer export sales through March. Saudi Arabia: DAP/MAP sales from Saudi Arabia for
Roughly 850,000t of sales volumes are expected to have May loading are limited at this point with as much as
moved in March bringing the total Q1 exports to roughly 250-300,000t still available for the coming month.
2.5Mt, up 19% from 2.1Mt exported in Q1 2023 and Ma’aden reports it has lined up roughly 80,000t MAP
2.2Mt exported in Q1 2022, but still down from the 2.7Mt to Brazil and 44,000t DAP to Bangladesh both under
exported in Q1 2021. formula prices for May loading. The company is in
discussions with Indian buyers over May cargoes with
• OCP still likely to pass record fertiliser exports in Pakistan, Southeast Asia and East Africa possible
2024: With the company already increasing exports in Q1 targets, with latest indications from these markets
yr-on-yr and capacity rising to 15Mt through 2024, OCP is netting back no higher than $545-550pt fob. Trader
forecast to produce roughly 12.4-12.5Mt fertilizers in Midgulf is understood to have covered a recent sale to
2024, with roughly 12.0Mt exports (surpassing OCP’s India’s NFL at $547-548pt cfr with Mosaic’s Saudi
11.3Mt record in 2020). This represents an extra roughly Arabian DAP availability, likely netting back no higher
1.1Mt fertilizer exports this year with production rates at than $535pt fob. Ma’aden also recently finalised at
just below 85% of capacity. least one DAP/MAP cargo to the US for April loading
under formula prices. Current May indications for US
Tunisia: Latest GCT DAP offers for April loading to DAP NOLA reflect no higher than $500pt fob if sold
European buyers are indicated at $580-590pt fob with spot. April availability reduced from Saudi Arabia due
limited sales reported. GCT is expected to move back to to maintenance.

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 07
• Price Assessments: The Saudi Arabia DAP price is prices and as much as a $70pt slump in India DAP
pegged down $10pt at an indicative $535-550pt fob Ras values over the last five weeks alone. At the start of
Al Khair pending further sales. Saudi Arabia MAP is the market week on 12 April, NFL awarded its 9 April
assessed down $7-8pt at $525-550pt fob with the low tender for 50,000t DAP to Midgulf at $547-548pt cfr.
end the likely netback from Brazil. Midgulf, which is understood to have secured backing
from Mosaic’s Saudi Arabian DAP supply, had
• Jan-April line-up: The Saudi Arabia DAP/MAP/NPS originally offered at $548.50pt cfr before NFL
line-up for January through April is currently at roughly countered. Some non-participating sources suggest
1.5Mt, reflecting a 21% decline on the 1.9Mt exported in the deal was concluded at $545-547pt cfr but this has
the same period 2023. The decline is down to technical not been confirmed. The tender called for shipment to
issues in Q1 and maintenance in April, with higher rates any safe port in west coast India by the end of April.
of roughly 450,000t DAP/MAP/NPS per month expected
from May/June. By midweek, GSFC reportedly had not awarded its 10
April tender for 50,000t DAP with the company calling
Ma’aden phosphate fertilizer production still at for revised offers for up to 100,000t DAP on 18 April.
slower rates: Ma’aden confirmed in its latest earnings Initial reports suggest offers in the latest GSFC round
presentation that Saudi Arabian phosphate fertilizer dipped below $535pt cfr but these have not been
production in 2023 reached a record 5.9Mt, up 15% yr- confirmed. Some sources also suggest a round of
on-yr. The supplier had been running at higher rates in discussions for May loading are taking place with key
the first half of last year, with H1 2023 production at buyers at $525-530pt cfr. Notably these prices netback
3.16Mt but technical issues and production outages roughly $20pt below the Chinese $530pt fob target
reduced H2 production to 2.74Mt and Q4 production to price floor. For now, the India DAP price is pegged at
just 1.28Mt, down 13% yr-on-yr. Maintaining current rates $535-548pt cfr, marking an average $5-6pt weekly
through Q2 would mean a H1 comparative reduction of decline pending confirmation of the lower priced
roughly 700,000t DAP/MAP/NPS against H1 2023. deals/offers. Most Indian buyers are still on the side-
Ma’aden set its 2024 production guidance for phosphate lines expecting prices will drop down to a level that
fertilizers at 5.5-5.8Mt, representing an average 4% gains margins at the prevailing DAP Maximum Retail
decline on 2023. Price/Nutrient Based Subsidy rates, ie. below $500pt
cfr.
• Construction work underway at Phosphate 3:
Ma’aden also reports that construction work is underway • DAP production: Production was down in Q1 with
at its Phosphate 3 project, which is still set to start phase India’s January through April DAP production forecast
1 production in 2026. Phase 1 adds a further 1.5Mt down 15% at 1.3Mt. The expected decline is down to
capacity to total 7.5Mt with another 1.5Mt to be added in limited production margins based on Rabi raw material
2029 during phase 2 bringing total capacity to 9Mt. costs and MRP/NBS rates, switching to NP/NPK
production and scheduled/unscheduled maintenance.
Jordan: JPMC DAP prices are assessed at $520-525pt PPL’s Odisha plant is currently closed for maintenance
fob, down another $7-8pt in line with latest DAP declines and because India’s Central Pollution Board issued a
to India. Discussions are reportedly ongoing over closure notice until compliance is met, IFFCO’s
Jordan’s May DAP availability with India the likely target. Paradip operation is on a 25-day turnaround while
Current DAP prices to the US would netback at $510- CIL’s Vizag plant is in maintenance until early April.
530pt fob Jordan with forward indications below the low The decline is also due somewhat to reduced raw
end. JPMC’s latest activity was 40,000t DAP for H2 April material availability on the ongoing Red Sea crisis.
loading to India’s IPL netting back at roughly $540-545pt
fob. • DAP stocks expected down into May:
Furthermore, India has only lined up 70-75% of last
year’s Jan-April DAP imports (1.1Mt v 1.5Mt). As a
result, May opening DAP stocks for India are now
India forecast at 2.7Mt against 3.5Mt entering May 2023.
India’s Kharif 2023 (April-September) DAP demand
India: There are unconfirmed reports of DAP offers to
reached 6.3Mt. Combined DAP/NP/NPK stocks
India dropping to below $535pt cfr and possible deals for
entering the Kharif season 2024 are stronger, forecast
May loading below $530pt cfr India this week. If
at 6.1-6.2Mt, slightly down from 6.2-6.3Mt last year.
confirmed these would mark a further $20pt decline in

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 08
India's DAP stocks likely to have opened Kharif 2024 (April) at 2.1-2.2Mt
Production Mt Imports Mt Opening stock Mt (right axis)
4.0 8.0

3.0 6.0

2.0 4.0

1.0 2.0

0.0 0.0

RCF – MAP10-50/DAP lite: India’s RCF received offers predicted probability of ‘above normal’ or ‘excess’
from five suppliers in its 12 April tender for 44,000t rainfall. The increase is down to the transition to La
MAP10-50/DAP lite 15.5-44 in two equal lots. Offers Nina conditions by July/August, below normal snow
came from Agrifields, Ameropa, Hexagon, Torbert and cover in the northern hemisphere and developing
Wilson International, mainly with MAP10-50. Each lot is positive conditions in the Indian Ocean. Private
for shipment to MBPT, one in May and another H1 June. weather forecasting group Skymet noted on 9 April it is
Price offers, which are valid for 15 days up until 27 April, expecting a ‘normal monsoon’. The Southwest
are expected to open 19 April. RCF previously awarded monsoon provides around 70% of India’s yearly
both lots for a total 44,000t MAP10-50 for shipment by rainfall. In the 2023 monsoon, India received below
April, in its 26 February tender at $554.19pt cfr average cumulative rainfall at 820 mm compared to
the long-period average of 868.6 mm. the IMD is set to
RCF – Phosphate rock: RCF received five offers in its forecast the onset date of the monsoon in mid-May.
12 April tender for 35,000t 29% P2O5 minimum
phosphate rock in one lot for shipment to MBPT within 30 India phosphoric acid: CIL reports on 18 April it has
days from the date of purchase order. The offers came agreed its second quarter phosphoric acid contract
from Ameropa ex-Jordan, Sun International ex-Jordan, with JPMC at $948pt cfr 100% P2O5, marking a $20pt
Medallion ex-Jordan, Agrifields ex-Algeria and Wilson ex- decline on Q1. The supplier has yet to confirm the deal
Egypt. Price offers, which are valid for 15 days up until 27 with reports another major buyer has also agreed at
April, are expected to open 19 April. the reported price. Based on latest other raw material
prices and current NBS/MRP rates the new price still
India’s IMD forecasts ‘above normal’ rainfall in represents as much as a $10-15pt loss to produce
monsoon season: The India Meteorological Department DAP in India though it likely provides good margins for
(IMD) expects the country to see ‘above normal’ June to NP/NPK production during Q2. DAP production via
September rainfall with fairly good distribution across the phosphate rock in India is now providing healthy
country, according to an update on 15 April. Though margins.
certain areas like Odisha, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and
West Bengal may see below par rainfall, the monsoon Buyers were understood to be seeking a substantial
core zone (Central India, Punjab & Haryana) are set to drop in phosphoric acid prices following recent
see high monsoon rains, the IMD says. declines in DAP prices and to secure margins to
produce DAP via phosacid. However, suppliers noted
Quantitively, the countrywide IMD expectation is for prices were already low on a comparable P2O5 basis
106% of the long period average rainfall with a 61% against DAP imports, latest ammonia price declines

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 09
have improved India’s production margins, particularly for production/stocks expected at 500,000t during the
NPS/NPK production, and recent freight rate increases period that leaves a significant supply gap in the
have already heavily hit fob values from suppliers. India’s coming months, especially if Pakistan wants to build
Q1 phosacid was agreed at $968pt cfr 100% P2O5 with stocks for the Rabi season 2024/25.
30 days credit, marking a $17pt decline on the Q4 2023
contract of $985pt cfr. Bangladesh: The MoA is understood to be discussing
the necessary DAP/TSP volumes for another private
India imports still far from margins: The new Kharif sector tender in May/June 2024. Last year’s tender
Nutrient-Based Subsidy rates imply a $42-48pt loss at was slimmed to just 400,000t DAP and 200,000t TSP
latest DAP import prices, and breakeven no higher than and closed in late July 2023 due to financing issues. In
$500pt cfr. Returning to high imports in the coming the end, the tender received offers for just 120,000t
months will likely be dependant either on a further crash DAP and 60,000t TSP due to the risks involved.
in DAP prices into May/June, and/or an increase in Bangladesh has secured a number of cargoes from
India’s Maximum Retail Price for DAP, and/or a revision Saudi Arabia, Morocco and China so far this year to
to subsidy support later in the Kharif season. help offset low stocks though issues with financing
remain an issue and it is unclear if Bangladesh will be
able to tender for significant DAP/TSP volumes this
year.
Other South Asia
Bangladesh phosrock: BCIC floated a tender for
Pakistan: There are no new DAP deals to Pakistan this 25,000t (72% BPL minimum) phosphate rock closing
week with buyers still expecting further price declines and on the 3 June. The tender is for shipment to BCIC’s
staying out of the market despite limited stocks. Offers TSP jetty at Chattogram within 30 days of receipt of
are now indicated at roughly $570pt cfr with bids no the L/C. BCIC previously received one offer from
higher than $550-560pt cfr, marking a $10pt price decline Wilson International ex-Jordan at $345pt cfr or roughly
wk-on-wk. Unconfirmed indications suggest availability $289pt fob in its tender for 25,000t phosphate rock
now as low as $550pt cfr for May loading. Buyers (minimum 72% BPL) on 6 February. The lowest offer
generally indicate they can wait until May/June before in BCIC’s 29 November tender for 25,000t rock was
returning to the market ahead of higher Kharif season from Gen Trade ex-Morocco at $342.89pt cfr or $266pt
demand. The Pakistan DAP price is now down around fob.
$60pt in the last five weeks but remains an average of
roughly $20-25pt above latest India DAP indications. Five Bangladesh phosacid: BCIC recently floated tenders
weeks ago, Fauji purchased a 30,000t DAP cargo from for a total 40,000t phosacid closing in late April/early
Ma’aden for H2 March loading at $620pt cfr while there May. The buyer is seeking 10,000t phosacid (52-54%
are unconfirmed reports of a recent Engro DAP deal ago P2O5) in a tender closing 30 April for delivery to its
for 40,000t DAP from China at roughly $575pt cfr. TSP complex in Chattogram within 30 days of the L/C
receipt. BCIC is also seeking 30,000t phosacid (52-
Pakistan’s March NFDC data: Pakistan’s March DAP 54% P2O5) in a tender closing 6 May. The tender calls
offtake reached 107,000t, up 108% on 51,000t last year. for three equal lots of 10,000t for delivery to its CUFL
This brings full Rabi season DAP offtake to 874,000t, up jetty in Chattogram within 30, 35 and 40 days of the
23% despite high domestic prices remaining in place. L/C receipts. BCIC’s latest phosacid tender was for
The 2023/24 Rabi offtake remains down on the 2021/22 10,000t on 27 December. The lowest offer came from
Rabi when DAP offtake reached 927,000t and on the China’s Guizhou Chanhen at $572pt cfr 54% solution
2019/20 and 2020/21 years when Rabi DAP offtake was or $1,059pt cfr 100% P2O5. Pakistan’s DAP stocks
at 1.1Mt each. Total availability of DAP during March in are forecast to enter the Kharif season in April at
Pakistan reached 185,000t, including 89,000t stock, 184,000t, down from 274,000t entering April 2023 and
20,000t imports and 76,000t domestic production. 276,000t entering April 2022.

• Stocks depleted into Kharif: The March availability Nepal: KSCL recently floated a tender for 25,000t
and offtake left just 78,000t DAP stock entering April for DAP closing 3 May. The tender is for inland delivery to
the Kharif season. This is down from opening stocks for warehouses at Biratnagar, Birgunj and Bhairahawa,
Kharif 2023 or 274,000t and for Kharif 2022 of 276,000t. likely by early Q3. Offers have 21 days validity. Nepal’s
The NFDC is expecting roughly 900,000t DAP demand in STC received four offers in its 26 January tender for
Pakistan’s 2024 Kharif season, with domestic 25,000t DAP with prices opened on 2 February. The

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 010
lowest offer came from Sun International at $707.95pt cip through April 2025, with roughly 3.25-3.5Mt DAP/MAP
marking a $21pt decline on KSCL’s 22 December DAP forecast for export in the May-September 2024
tender L1 from Indian Potash Ltd at $729.00pt cip. tranche. June 2023 saw the highest monthly
DAP/MAP exports from China of 2023, at 980,000t
(14% of the yearly total).
Far East, Pacific
China’s DAP production up in Q1: China’s
DAP/MAP production in the first two months of 2024
China: DAP prices from China remain under pressure rose 2.7% yr-on-yr to 4.7Mt, according to latest CPFIA
amid limited sales as suppliers attempt to set a price floor data. DAP production in January-February rose 12%
of $530pt fob after a $65pt drop in the previous five yr-on-yr to 2.6Mt while MAP production in the same
weeks and traders seek lower values. Latest reported period declined 7.0% to 2.0Mt. Combined DAP/MAP
DAP offers to Central/Latin America and Pakistan for late inventories in China reportedly rose 10% between
April/early May loading reflect $540-550pt fob, with a December and February 2024 ahead of domestic
rumoured new deal to Mexico in this range. A number of spring season sales, reaching 2.1Mt. March is
Chinese suppliers report they are offering at $530-535pt understood to have seen similar production rates with
fob for large volume sales to India and Southeast Asia. roughly 500-600,000t DAP/MAP moved to port for
However, latest rumoured DAP offers from traders to export during the month. China’s Q1 DAP/MAP
Indonesia at $530-535pt cfr and to India below $535pt cfr production is forecast at 7.1Mt, up from 7.0Mt in both
reflect roughly $510pt fob for May loading from China. A Q1 2023 and Q1 2022. In the full year 2023, China
number of traders report availability from China at $520pt produced 27.5Mt DAP/MAP, up from 25.3Mt in 2022.
fob this week with no deals confirmed at this level. The Combined Chinese DAP/MAP exports in 2023 reached
China DAP price is pegged down $5pt at $530-540pt fob 7.1Mt.
pending confirmation of availability below the $530pt fob
floor target. Notably, very little DAP has so far been sold Southeast Asia: DAP prices slumped this week to
from China for may loading and there are expectations of $533-560pt cfr Southeast Asia from previous activity at
a jump in Chinese DAP availability for May/June loading roughly $570pt cfr and deals as high as $640pt cfr in
on the CIQ quota’s second tranche. January/February. Vietnam offers were seen early in
the market week at the high end of the range at $550-
• China domestic DAP: DAP prices in China’s domestic 560pt cfr. Pupuk Indonesia reportedly received offers
market are reported flat this week at CNY3,700-3,750pt as low as $530-535pt cfr in its latest tender for roughly
exw ($512-518pt) with new activity from factory slowing 20,000t DAP for May loading. The tender is
for the spring season. Some offers are still reported as understood to have received ten offers.
high as CNY3,800pt exw ($525pt). A growing volume of
DAP is expected to be moved towards port for exporting
in April following as much as 400-500,000t expected
deliveries to port through March. Domestic DAP prices
currently reflect $525-530pt fob to export.

• MAP11-44: Chinese export offers for May loading are


reported at $440-445pt fob though latest sales activity is
indicated at $435-440pt fob to traders for the Brazilian
market. Reports suggest a number of MAP11-44 deals
have been concluded to traders for H2 April/May loading.
Domestic MAP11-44 prices are generally reported at
CNY3,000-3,050pt exw ($414-421pt) with some offers
seen as high as CNY3,200pt exw. Domestic MAP11-44
prices currently reflect $425-435pt fob to export.

• January-April export volumes: China’s January


through April DAP/MAP export volumes are at roughly
700,000t. These are forecast to reach 800,000t, roughly
half of the 1.6Mt in the same period 2023. This leaves
roughly 5.7Mt DAP/MAP available for export from May

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 011
PHOSPHATE ROCK $ P2O5 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 NPK, NP $ BULK 18 Apr 11 Apr
Morocco fob 31-33% 145-295 145-295 16-16-16 fob FSU 305-390 305-390
China fot 29-31% 135-150 135-150 16-16-16 fob FSU China netback 305-315 305-315
Syria fob 29-30% 90-96 90-100 10-26-26 fob FSU 355-435 355-435
Peru fob 30% 110-140 115-145 20-20-0 fob East Europe 300-360 300-360

Algeria fob 29-30% 92-125 100-130 19-38-0 7S fob Morocco Q1 2022 655 655

Egypt fob 30-31% 100-115 105-120 10-26-26 cfr India 420 420

Egypt fob 27-28% 55-85 80-90 15-15-15 cfr India 368 368

Jordan fob 34-36% 220-270 220-270 16-16-16 cfr China 380-385 380-385

Togo fob 35-36% 140-150 140-150 9-25-25 cfr NW Europe 600-610 600-610

Russia fob 38-39% 210-270 240 15-15-15 cfr W Africa 460-470 460-470

Russia dom del ($ equ.) 38-39% 230-260 280 16-16-16 cfr SE Asia 430-450 430-450

India cfr 29-30% 130-150 130-150 16-20-0 cfr SE Asia 330-335 330-335

India cfr 33-34% 217-260 225-265 0-30-10 fot ex store Brazil 355-370 355-370
15-15-15 fot ex wks China 390-410 390-410
15-15-15 (SOP) fot ex wks China 440-470 440-470
25-13-7 fot ex wks N China 360-370 360-370
PHOSACID MGA $pt P2O5 Q1 ‘24 Q4 ‘23 10-10-20 fot ex wks N China 340-350 340-350
Morocco fob 875-1,070 900-1,110

India cfr 30d 968 985


West Europe cfr 1,020-1,120 1,050-1,150
SSP $ BULK 18 Apr 11 Apr
Brazil cfr 1,060-1,080 1,080-1,100
Egypt fob 170-190 170-190
Brazil cfr (feed grade 54%) 1,060-1,080 1,080-1,100
Spain fob ($ equiv) n.m. n.m.

Italy € fot bgd ex store n.m. n.m.


Brazil cfr 18% 200 200
INPUTS (+/- $pt of DAP) Mar (Feb) +/- Brazil cfr 18-21% 200-230 200-230
Ammonia cfr Tampa 445 (445) =0 Brazil fot ex store inland 19-21% 300-325 300-325
cfr Morocco 390 (430) -9.3 Brazil ex-port store 18-21% 240-270 240-270
cfr India 300 (330) -7.0
Sulphur plt cfr Tampa Q1/Q4 69 (102) -14.2
cfr N Africa Q1/Q4 80 (128) -20.1
EU NPK, NP (inland €) 18 Apr 11 Apr
spot ex-warehouse China 85 (110) +10.7
15-15-15 cif bulk Benelux 435-440 435-440
17-17-17 cif bulk France 465-475 465-475
0-25-25 cif France 460-480 460-480
8-24-24 del bgd Italy 555-565 555-565
20-10-10 del bgd Italy 465-470 465-470
8-24-8 del bgd Spain 530-540 530-540
20-10-10 del bgd UK £ 380-390 380-390

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 012
DAP $ BULK 18 Apr 11 Apr MAP $ BULK 18 Apr 11 Apr
Tampa, US Gulf fob 555-580 555-580 Baltic, Black Sea fob 522-550 522-550
Simulated net on Brazil, Arg spot* 555-575 555-575 NOLA return net 14.3% CVD on US cfr 443-455 435-475

Metric netback from NOLA 565-580 530-560 Tampa fob 555-580 555-580
Netback on Mosaic India system** 475-480 475-480 NOLA fob barge (st) 518-530 510-550
NOLA fob barge (st) 535-550 500-530 Florida fot (st) 655 655
Florida fot (st) 630 630 Morocco fob 550-595 550-595
KSA fob 535-550 540-565 KSA fob 525-550 525-565
Simulated metric netback from NOLA 535-550 500-530 KSA fob (formula netbk from Brazil) 525-530 525-530

Russia Baltic fob 520-580 520-585 China fob (10-50) 490-500 490-500
Lithuania Baltic fob n.m. n.m. China fob (11-44) 435-440 435-445
Morocco fob 530-595 540-595 Brazil cfr (11-52) 570-572 570-572
Duty-free metric netback from NOLA 560-575 525-555 Argentina cfr (11-52) 600 600
Above US return net 7.41% CVD on US cfr 520-535 485-515 Brazil fot ex-port store (11-52) 595-605 595-605
Africa netback 530 540 Brazil cfr (11-44) 470 470-475
Tunisia fob 585-590 595 Brazil fot ex-store inland 120 d 665-675 660-680
China fob 530-540 530-550
China fot bgd ex wks ($ equiv.) 512-518 512-518
TSP $ BULK 18 Apr 11 Apr
Mexico fob 555-570 520-550
Morocco fob 375-430 375-440
Jordan fob 520-525 530
Tunisia fob 395-430 395-440
India cfr spot 535-548 545-549
Mexico fob 405-410 400-420
Pakistan cfr 560-570 570-580
China fob 370 370
Brazil cfr 570-572 570-572
China fob (Iran netback $pt equiv)* n.m. n.m.
Argentina, Uruguay cfr 600 600
Lebanon fob 390-420 390-455
Benelux, N France fob/fot 645-650 650-655
NOLA fob barge (st) 430-433 435-440
*Any-origin sales to Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay ** Mosaic India netback is basis
MRP assumed for 2023 flat at Rs27,000pt, and Rabi 2023 subsidy reduced to
Brazil cfr 415-420 415-420
Rs22,541pt, net all internal logistics costs, all taxes, and prevailing forex
Benelux. N France $ fob/fot 490-500 490-510
* No imports in 2019, nor 2020, 2021, and tender in 2022 lapsed

Profercy Phosphates & NPKs pricing represents last-known spot


or contract sales. In the absence of new trades, competitive
indications will apply; i.e. highest bid in a rising market or lowest
offer in a falling market. Netbacks on contract sales, formula or
otherwise may feature. International quotes are for 4,000 tonne lots
& above, rounded up to the nearest US$. Italics = no recent
business; n.m. = no market

Publisher: Profercy Phosphates Ltd


Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. For more information regarding Profercy,
our price methodology, price benchmark formulation and internal processes relevant to this publication, please contact
accounts@profercy.com. A Code of Conduct for those submitting information to Profercy is also available here. Those submitting information to
Profercy acknowledge that information may be used in our publications and that they are authorized to submit such information.

© Copyright 2024 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 013

You might also like