Analyzing hydroclimatic events using GRACE data

Floods and drought are the most devastating disasters to impact human life and economy.
Changes in climate are expected to have a profound impact on the duration and severity of
these disasters, through modulations in the water cycle. However, the mechanism behind the
modulations of hydrological extremes is not verified and their quantifications remain
uncertain. The article describes an attempt to study the hydrological extremes by using
satellite gravimetry-based observations from the GRACE missions from 2002-2021. The
metric used to quantify the occurrence, duration and intensity of the extremes is the terrestrial
water storage (TWS) anomaly. The characteristics of the hydrological events are derived
using spatial and temporal aggregation of individual grid cells based on their TWS anomaly.
The TWS provides better quantification the changes in the vertical water profile than soil
moisture or streamflow data.
The global total intensity of major extreme events appears to be increasing as the world
warms. The most intense wet pluvial event was observed over the sub-Saharan Africa leading
to flooding and rise in water level of the Victoria Lake. In contrast, the most intense dry event
observed over North-eastern South America during 2015-2016 and from 2019 to present
endangering hydropower production. The study also investigates interannual variability and
drivers of extreme tropical wetland (TSW) events by examining changes in worldwide
intensity and relation with other hydroclimatic indicators. The El Niño Southern oscillation
(ENSO) had a clear influence on the occurrences of the extremes, with the maximum TWS
anomalies of the top three wet events having occurred in either La Niña or El Niño years and
the minimum TWS anomaly of the top dry event having occurred in an El Niño year. The
global monthly total dry and wet event intensities showed significant correlation with global
mean temperature. This correlation was largest specifically in the dry and wet event
intensities in the tropical climates.
The study examines the changing frequency of wet and dry extreme events and precipitation
patterns in five geographical regions. The first group the frequency of wet events decreased
while most dry events occurred during the second half in response to climate warming. The
other two regions are responding to global warming with more wet events and fewer dry
events during second half of study. The sub-Saharan Africa and northern South America
receive more rainfall during La Niña than during El Niño, while a reverse effect in observed
in western United States and northern Mexico.
GRACE and GRACE-FO have provided a comprehensive data record over 20 years, enabling
the identification and quantification of extreme hydroclimatic events globally. A new ranking
of the most intense water cycle events of the past two decades has been presented, using
GRACE-FO data and a novel clustering algorithm. The study found that global monthly
intensity of extreme hydroclimatic events is increasing as the world warms, consistent with
the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.