Handout/Traffic Engineering Simulation of Traffic Unit 5

CHAPTER FIVE

SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC

Introduction

Traffic flow phenomenon consists of a wide range of complex activities, embracing vehicle
arrivals, speed of travel, lane discipline, overtaking and crossing logic, gap acceptance,
acceleration and deceleration, etc. The characteristics of traffic flow include speed, concentration
and flow and these are governed by a variety of factors attributable to the road features, the
vehicle performance characteristics and the road user behavior.

An understanding of the subject of traffic flow can be achieved by observing how the vehicles
move in the stream of traffic, collect data and thereafter synthesize the flow characteristics
through analytical or mathematical models. The speed- density – flow relationships, the
hydrodynamic analogy model, Car following theory, queuing theory, etc are examples of the
analytical approach. The science of traffic flow theory has been developed to a high degree with
the help of this approach.

The analytical approach requires that field data be collected on a large scale. For example, if a
proper understanding of the complex heterogeneous traffic on Ethiopian roads is to be achieved,
real life observations will have to be conducted on all types of roads met within Ethiopia
(covering pavement widths, roughness, curvature and vertical profile) on a complete range of
vehicle type and composition in the traffic and a full coverage of traffic volumes and speeds.
Such a procedure is extremely tedious, time consuming and expensive. At the end of the effort,
the building up of suitable relationships will be often fraught with uncertainties and it often
happens that a reliable relationship does not emerge.

Traffic engineers are therefore taking recourse to a new technique known as Simulation
Modeling, which is finding application in a variety of situations other than traffic flow problems.

Simulation is defined as creating a working analogy of real life problems into a computer –
based model. It is a technique, where by some part of the real world is represented
dynamically by building a computer model, running the model through time to solve
problems having any given constraints and inputs.

Hence Simulation is a method of creating similar conditions in the computer that exists on
the road in order to solve the problem. This is essential only when the problem is not solved
by other techniques and needs some special attention to study the problem. More analysis
can be carried out for the problems which are simulated in the computer. This needs lot of
programming background in the computer.

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Example:
Let us consider that many problems exists in the signalized intersections along the corridor, due
which the vehicular delays are increasing enormously and travel time is also increasing. It is
required to analyze the various factors associated for the delay and travel time so as to reduce
delays and travel time.

In that situation, the arrangements on the road for all traffic signals along the corridor such as
signal timings, road widths, arrival rates, departure rates, composition of traffic, traffic volume,
traffic speed, traffic density, size of vehicles, driver behavior , geometrical elements on the road,
road alignment, etc have to be simulated in the computer as it is. Later with the help of computer
programmings, lot of analysis can be worked out by changing the positions of all the parameters
and finally the problem will get a solution. This needs computer programming and logical
knowledge in addition to the knowledge of traffic and transportation.

In the same way any number of complicated problems which are unable to solve on the roads can
be easily solved by the method of Simulation.

Advantages of Simulation Techniques:

In traffic engineering problems, Simulation techniques offer a number of advantages over
conventional analytical methods.

1) Simulation is cheaper than many forms of field experimentation and analytical

modeling, in terms of time, resources and cost.

2) Simulation is a powerful tool for comparing the consequences of a number of

alternative strategies and improvement plans.

3) The task of developing the logic of various events and their occurrences involves the
collection of pertinent data. The engineer gains an insight into the traffic
characteristics and the way traffic interaction takes place during the process of
collection of data and modeling. This may ultimately lead to a better formation of an
analytical model.

4) In real life situations, it is extremely difficult to obtain conditions in the field which
are needed for building a better analytical formulation.

For example, in developing the speed- flow relationships for rural highways, the
extremely congested conditions are not easily found. A Simulation model can be
building up such situations on the computer and can predict the performance of the
system.

5) Simulation techniques can be employed to check uncertain analytical solutions.

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6) Simulation techniques provide opportunity for controlled experimentation, altering

one variable at a time or specific variables simultaneously and the final effect can be
observed. Traffic systems in particular are highly complex systems, with many
variables, interactions and sub – systems.

7) In the case of many analytical models, certain assumptions have to be made to

simplify the task. Often these assumptions are of a doubtful nature. Simulation
models can overcome such deficiencies.

8) Simulation models are transparent, in the sense that anyone who wishes to know how
they work can see through the model.

Steps in Simulation
The following are the various sequential steps involved in solving the traffic problems using
Simulation techniques.

1) Definition of the Problem:

Simulation techniques can be used for solving a wide range of problems commonly met
with in road traffic and transportation. Some of the problems are
1. Development of Speed – flow relationships
2. Prediction of fuel consumption of vehicles
3. Gap acceptance problems in the design of intersections and interchange ramps
4. Queuing problems
5. Bus route scheduling
6. Bus impact on the speeds of other mode of vehicles in urban roads
7. Accident occurrences, etc

Thus for a good model to be evolved, it is very essential that the problem to be dealt with, has to
be accurately defined and understood by the modeler.

2) Field studies necessary to provide inputs to the model :

The model is a depiction of real life happenings. As such the formulation of a model involves a
study of the real life behavior and drawing of conclusions there from. These conclusions will
thereafter be used as inputs to the various components of the model.

To cite an example, the speeds which are adopted by drivers of cars on the road can cover a
complete range, depending upon the characteristics of the vehicle, the road, the traffic stream and
the driver himself. If the simulation model has to predict the speeds for a full range of
possibilities, the modeler has to study the actual speed distribution in real life under free- flow
conditions as the starting point. Thereafter, he has also to study how speeds get affected by road
characteristics such as roughness, pavement width, curvature and sight distance. This result of
field observations can thereafter be simplified into simple relationships which will be used in the
model.

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3) Development of Logic
Certain activities in the model are inter–related through some logic which has to be established
by the modeler.

For example, given a T- intersection problem, the vehicles arriving at the side road have to wait
for suitable gaps which are safe, though some drivers are extremely cautious and some others are
prone to take risks. The gap acceptance phenomenon follows a certain pattern. The modeler has
to establish the logic involved in such operations.

4) Development of the Computer Simulation Programme

The modeler is now in a position to write the Simulation Programme, which will incorporate
inputs and logic he has determined. The actual program language can be the choice of the
modeler. The languages that are normally used are:
a) C language
b) C ++ language
c) Java language, etc
The choice depends upon the computer system available and the ability of the program language
to incorporate the requirements of the model as inexpensively as possible.

5) Calibration of the Model

In spite of best efforts to incorporate all the needed inputs to the model, it is quiet likely that
certain essential features have been either missed or have been erroneously determined. The
initial run of the model can detect such errors and give the modeler an opportunity to calibrate
like model to eliminate any inaccuracies.

6) Simulation Runs
Once the model is calibrated, it is ready for actual use. Before it can be universalized to cover the
range of values of traffic, roadway, vehicle and driver characteristics, a number of simulation
runs are made covering the extremes of conditions.

7) Validation of the Model

Validation is the method of testing the validity of the model, whether the model is close to reality
or not. The results of the Simulation runs are then compared with real life observations under
similar conditions. If the model was reliable, the results of the Simulation runs and predictions
should converge with the actual to a good degree of accuracy. If not, the modeler has to
investigate the causes for divergence and recalibrate the model, till satisfactory convergence is
achieved.

Scanning Techniques
Scanning is a Technique adopted by the modeler to depict the sequence of events in the program.
There are two types of scanning techniques.

1) Event Scanning Technique

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Event scanning is the procedure by which the model assesses the conditions at the occurrence of
every event. The model is allowed to run after the occurrence of one event till the occurrence of
the next.

2) Time Scanning Technique

Time scanning is economical in computer time but requires program sophistication. On the other
hands, Time scanning is simple to program but may involve higher computer time and cost.

Example of Simulation Technique

Suppose it is required to develop a Speed – flow relationship model in the urban corridor in order
to study the variation of speed for different flow conditions and roadway conditions

The following are the steps required for simulating speed- flow relationship in the computer.

1) Problem definition :
In the problem definition, the actual problem taken up should be defined properly with clarity.
This includes all the objectives of the problem.

The objectives of the present example problem are

a) To develop a computer based Simulation Model for predicting the Speeds of vehicles
in the urban corridor for various changes in the traffic volume, composition and road
widths under
 Variable road widths with or without shoulders
 Roads of different riding quality
 Roads sections having any desired vertical and horizontal geometry
 Heterogeneous traffic conditions covering both fast moving and slow moving
vehicles
 Free flow and congested flow conditions

b) To develop a computer based traffic Simulation Model with capabilities of predicting

fuel consumption under
 Variable types of vehicles
 Variable sizes, shapes and weights of vehicles
 Variable Speeds of vehicles
 Variable traffic compositions and traffic volumes
 Variable road widths
 Variable obstacles on the road
 Variable travel times for different types of vehicles
 Variable distances in the selected corridors

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2) Data Collection in the Field

The second stage of the model development is the data collection in the field to suit to the
definition of the problem. This needs lot of care and enumerators to collect the data. The data
pertaining to volume and speed has to be collected by the number of enumerators at a time for a
minimum period of 16 hours in a day. A minimum of one week data covering all the days is
essential to satisfy all the conditions in the program.

The enumerators should be more in number and should collect the required data of volume and
speed at every 15 minutes or 5 minutes consecutive interval. The enumerators should ensure that
the errors in collecting the data are minimal. The travel times by different types of vehicles and
the fuel consuming by different types of vehicles under variable roadway and traffic conditions
should be collected by the enumerators without any errors. When the data is having errors, they
will magnify and the program will not give good results. Hence the attention of enumerators in
collecting the data is highly essential.

Hence the field data includes

a) Basic desired speed distribution of cars, trucks, buses, two wheelers, autos, vans, lorries,
bicycles, etc ( mean and standard deviation )
b) Effect of pavement width on vehicle speeds
c) Effect of shoulder type and condition on vehicle speeds
d) Effect of roughness of pavement on vehicle speeds
e) Power weight ratio of different vehicles
f) Effect of radius of curvature on vehicle speeds
g) Frictional resistance of the pavement
h) Gap acceptance and gap rejectance of various types of vehicles under various roadway
and traffic conditions
i) Video shooting of the traffic under variable roadway and traffic conditions in the urban
corridor

3) Program Development
Program development is a crucial part of the entire model. The result of the model mainly
depends upon the effectiveness and efficiency of the program. The program has to be written in
the computer by considering all the above objectives and field data. The program for simulation
of traffic can be written either by using C language or C ++ language or Java or any other
advanced programming language. The program should incorporate all the attributes and should
be flexible for the user. The program should have a facility of taking input data and analyzing the
data. The result in the program should be displaced as an output. The strength of the model
mainly depends upon the efficiency of the program developed for the problem.

In developing a program for the model, the following factors are to be taken into consideration
 Narrow or wide roads

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 Curves with their radii

 Speed limits
 Gradients
 Overtaking phenomenon
 Sight distance
 Available gaps
 Statistical distribution of speeds, headways, journey times, number of
overtakings, delays and fuel consumption
 Size, shape and horse power of different vehicles
 Geometrics of the road and its condition
 Heterogeneous traffic conditions
 Slow moving and fast moving vehicles movements

4) Model Calibration
Model calibration is the process of correcting the errors in the program. The error may be due to
inaccurate data or due to programming error. The errors are to be corrected to suit to the
definition of the problem. The program has to be structured to perform well for the given input.
This is possible only when the program is free from errors and is close to reality. Precautions are
to be taken to see that the program will not stuck in between giving the results. The program
should recognize input and should understand the input and should give the output as asked.

5) Model Validation
Model Validation is the method of testing the fitness of the model. Before applying the model in
reality, it is essential to validate the model. The model will be validated for the selected road and
traffic conditions. Validation involves the comparison of model output with the observed values.
The closer the agreement between the observed and predicted values, the better is the model
predictability.

The model has been validated for the selected stretches of two lane, three lane and four lane
roads. The values of predicted journey speeds, spot speeds, headways, number of over takings
and fuel consumption were compared with observed values. Standard statistical tests were
employed to check the agreement. Finally it should be concluded that the model is predicting the
values and are close with the observed values.