Tablet Computer Sales

alpha 0.2
Week Units Sold S(t) forecast error deviation percent
1 88 88
2 44 79.2 88.0 44.0 44.0 100.0%
3 60 75.4 79.2 19.2 19.2 32.0%
4 56 71.5 75.4 19.4 19.4 34.6%
5 70 71.2 71.5 1.5 1.5 2.1%
6 91 75.2 71.2 -19.8 19.8 21.8%
7 54 70.9 75.2 21.2 21.2 39.2%
8 60 68.7 70.9 Chart Title
10.9 10.9 18.2%
9 48 10064.6 68.7 20.7 20.7 43.2%
10 35 9058.7 64.6 29.6 29.6 84.5%
11 49 8056.7 58.7 9.7 9.7 19.7%
12 44 7054.2 56.7 12.7 12.7 28.9%
13 61 6055.6 54.2 -6.8 6.8 11.2%
50
14 68 58.0 55.6 -12.4 12.4 18.3%
40
15 82 62.8 58.0 -24.0 24.0 29.2%
30
16 71 64.5 62.8 -8.2 8.2 11.5%
20
17 50 61.6 64.5 14.5 14.5 28.9%
10
0
61.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
RMSE MSE
Units Sold MAD S(t) A(t) MAPE
16.5809299 274.93 14.766029812798 27.4%

alha
0.1
0.2
0.3
 4 week Moving average
A(t) forecasterror deviatio percent

#N/A
44
62 47.2
57.5 62 -8 8 11.4% 48.96
69.25 57.5 -33.5 33.5 36.8% 53.168
67.75 69.25 15.25 15.25 28.2% 60.734
68.75 67.75 7.75 7.75 12.9% 59.388
63.25 68.75 20.75 20.75 43.2% 59.51
49.25 63.25 28.25 28.25 80.7% 57.208
48 49.25 0.25 0.25 0.5% 52.766
44 48 4 4 9.1% 52.013
47.25 44 -17 17 27.9% 50.411
55.5 47.25 -20.75 20.75 30.5% 52.528
63.75 55.5 -26.5 26.5 32.3% 55.623
70.5 63.75 -7.25 7.25 10.2% 60.898
67.75 70.5 20.5 20.5 41.0%
67.75
14 15 16 17
RMSE MSE MAD MAPE
18.848 355.25 16.135 28.1%
 Exponential Smoothing
100
80
60 Actual
Value
40
Forecast
20
0

Data Point
Holt- winters Methodp = 4
Alpha 0.2 Beta 0.5 gamma 0.6

Week Units SoldS(t) T(t) C(t) Forecast

1 88 62 0.00 1.42
2 44 62 0.00 0.71
3 60 62 0.00 0.97
4 56 62 0.00 0.90
5 70 63.32 0.66 4.58 65.39
6 91 69.24 3.29 13.34 73.24
7 54 68.63 1.34 -8.39 70.94
8 60 67.79 0.25 -4.32 68.95
9 48 63.12 -2.21 -7.24 65.49
10 35 53.06 -6.13 -5.50 60.27
11 49 49.02 -5.09 -3.37 35.54
12 44 44.81 -4.65 -2.21 35.84
13 61 45.77 -1.84 6.24 36.69
14 68 49.85 1.12 8.69 45.46
15 82 57.84 4.56 13.15 59.03
16 71 64.56 5.64 2.98 67.99
17 50 64.91 2.99 -6.45 74.14
76.60
81.05
70.88
61.45