Clean Coal Technology and Sustainable

Development Proceedings of the 8th

International Symposium on Coal
Combustion 1st Edition Guangxi Yue
Visit to download the full and correct content document:
https://textbookfull.com/product/clean-coal-technology-and-sustainable-development-
proceedings-of-the-8th-international-symposium-on-coal-combustion-1st-edition-guan
gxi-yue/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

The chemistry and technology of coal Speight

https://textbookfull.com/product/the-chemistry-and-technology-of-
coal-speight/

Economics of the International Coal Trade Why Coal

Continues to Power the World 2nd Edition Lars
Schernikau (Auth.)

https://textbookfull.com/product/economics-of-the-international-
coal-trade-why-coal-continues-to-power-the-world-2nd-edition-
lars-schernikau-auth/

Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on

Materials and Sustainable Development Volume 1 Nano
Technology and Advanced Materials Abdelbaki Benmounah

https://textbookfull.com/product/proceedings-of-the-4th-
international-symposium-on-materials-and-sustainable-development-
volume-1-nano-technology-and-advanced-materials-abdelbaki-
benmounah/

The Chemistry and Technology of Coal 3rd Edition James

G. Speight (Author)

https://textbookfull.com/product/the-chemistry-and-technology-of-
coal-3rd-edition-james-g-speight-author/
8th RILEM International Symposium on Testing and
Characterization of Sustainable and Innovative
Bituminous Materials 1st Edition Francesco Canestrari

https://textbookfull.com/product/8th-rilem-international-
symposium-on-testing-and-characterization-of-sustainable-and-
innovative-bituminous-materials-1st-edition-francesco-canestrari/

Innovation and Application of Engineering Technology:

Proceedings of the International Symposium on
Engineering Technology and Application 1st Edition
Wenxue Chen
https://textbookfull.com/product/innovation-and-application-of-
engineering-technology-proceedings-of-the-international-
symposium-on-engineering-technology-and-application-1st-edition-
wenxue-chen/

Strength, cuttability, and workability of coal First

Edition Balci

https://textbookfull.com/product/strength-cuttability-and-
workability-of-coal-first-edition-balci/

Coal Geology 3rd Edition Larry Thomas

https://textbookfull.com/product/coal-geology-3rd-edition-larry-
thomas/

MINERALS AND COAL PROCESS CALCULATIONS 1st Edition

Subba Rao

https://textbookfull.com/product/minerals-and-coal-process-
calculations-1st-edition-subba-rao/
Guangxi Yue · Shuiqing Li Editors

Clean Coal Technology

and Sustainable
Development
Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Coal
Combustion
Clean Coal Technology and Sustainable
Development
Guangxi Yue Shuiqing Li
•

Editors

Clean Coal Technology

and Sustainable
Development
Proceedings of the 8th International
Symposium on Coal Combustion

123
Editors
Guangxi Yue Shuiqing Li
Department of Thermal Engineering Department of Thermal Engineering
Tsinghua University Tsinghua University
Beijing Beijing
China China

ISBN 978-981-10-2022-3 ISBN 978-981-10-2023-0 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2023-0

The print edition is not for sale in China Mainland. Customers from China Mainland please order the print book from:
Tsinghua University Press

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016947016

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore and Tsinghua University Press 2016

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publishers, whether the whole or part of the material is
concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction
on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic
adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not
imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and
regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publishers, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed
to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty,
express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media Singapore Pte Ltd.
Preface

The International Symposium on Coal Combustion (ISCC) was originally conceived by

Tsinghua University in 1987 and now becomes one of the most effective forums every four
year, aiming at clean coal energy, global warming, low-carbon technology, etc.
The 8th Symposium, hosted by the Institute of Thermal Engineering of Tsinghua
University, was successfully held at Beijing, China, in July 19–22, 2015. The symposium
covered the latest results of research and development (R&D) on the clean coal combustion,
conversion, and utilization from both academia and industry.
In the 8th ISCC, the colloquium chair system has been started to improve the scientific and
technical quality of the conference. The renewed International Advisory Committee consists of
52 well-known scholars and experts from 14 countries (25 Chinese and 27 foreigners). After
review and selection, 196 technical papers were divided into 5 keynotes, 121 oral presenta-
tions, and 70 posters were accepted. Among them, about 20 top rank fundamental papers were
further submitted to a special issue of FUEL, one of the leading journals in this field. More
than 200 delegates attended the symposium from 13 countries, including USA, Germany, UK,
Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia, Russia, Sweden, and Poland . Compared to the previous
symposiums, more industrial colleagues were present with high interests. Twelve domestic
and foreign research institutions, universities, and foundations as well as enterprises as
sponsors or co-sponsors provided their supports to the symposium.
The proceedings of the 8th ISCC collect 2 invited plenary speeches (partially in abstracts)
and 93 technical papers presented orally and in poster, and are divided into the following parts
including the number of papers.

– Basic Coal Quality and Combustion/17

– Pulverized Coal Combustion/15
– Fluidized Bed Combustion/12
– Special for CO2 Issues-CCS/8
– Emission Characteristics and Controls/22
– Industrial Application and Coal Use/19

The proceedings can serve as a platform for scientists, engineers, graduate students, and
equipment manufactures and operators, as well as technical managers to exchange their
opinions and ideas in the field of science and technology of coal combustion, gasification, and
pollutants and CO2 emissions.
We would like to acknowledge our members of the International Advisory Committee who
devoted their time and energy to review the manuscripts, and to express our appreciation to Dr.
Qiang Li of Tsinghua University Press for his effort in publishing the proceedings.

Beijing, China Guangxi Yue

Shuiqing Li

v
Contents

Part I Invited Plenary Speeches

Clean Coal Technology—For the Future Utilization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Keiji Makino
Regional Distribution of Renewable Energy and the Abundance
of Fossil Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Filip Johnsson, and Jan Kjärstad

Part II Basic Coal Quality and Combustion

Physicochemical Properties and Pyrolysis Characteristics of Indonesian
Lignite Upgraded by Organic Solvent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Liu Meng, Xu Chao, Li Jian, and Duan Yufeng
Combustion Behavior of Low-Rank Coal Upgraded by Degradative
Solvent Extraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Zong Zhang, Yi Xue, Xianqing Zhu, Xian Li, Hong Yao,
and Kouichi Miura
A Quantitative Method for Determining the Primary Air Ratio
in Coal-Fired Power Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Bin Zhang, Fang Yue, Yang Liu, and Peifang Fu
Physicochemical Analysis of Hydrothermal Upgraded Municipal
Sewage Sludge with Low-Rank Lignite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Li Jian, Liu Meng, Duan Yufeng, and Xu Chao
Experimental Study on Ash Melting Behavior of Xinjiang High-Alkali
Coal Blended with Low-Alkali Coal During Coal Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Xiang Zhang, Xiaojiang Wu, Xueyuan Xu, Jianwen Zhang, Kai Yan,
Baiqian Dai, Jian Zhang, and Lian Zhang
Molecular Dynamics Simulations Study of Brown Coal Pyrolysis
Using ReaxFF Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Di-kun Hong, Hong-kuan Shu, Xin Guo, and Chu-guang Zheng
Experimental and Numerical Analyses on Ignition and Burnout
Characteristic of Low-Rank Lignite and Semi-Char Blends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Ye Yuan, Shuiqing Li, and Qiang Yao
Mineral Matters in High-AAEM Zhundong Coal—In Comparison
with High-calcium PRB Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Yanmei Yang, Hai Zhang, Junfu Lu, and Yuxin Wu
The Layered Structure of Ash Deposition in a 350 MW PC Furnace
Burning High Sodium–Calcium Lignite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Tao Yang, Xuebin Wang, Wenguang Li, Bo Wei, Yibin Wang,
and Houzhang Tan

vii
viii Contents

Mechanism Investigation on the Sulfation of Condensed Sodium Chloride

at 523–1023 K . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Zhongfa Hu, Lan Zhang, Qinglian Sang, Xuebin Wang, Zhao Wang,
and Houzhang Tan
Mechanisms of Inorganic Element Transfer During Zhundong Coal Combustion
in Drop Tube Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Bo Wei, Xuebin Wang, Xiaobing Qi, Yibin Wang, Zhongfa Hu,
and Houzhang Tan
A Mechanism Study on the Decomposition of Sulfate in Zhundong Coal
with High Sulfur Content in Coal Ash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Xuebin Wang, Hongying Wu, Shuanghui Deng, Lan Zhang, Bo Wei,
and Houzhang Tan
Large Eddy Simulation of the Sandia Flame E and F Using Dynamic
Second-Order Moment Closure (DSMC) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Jianshan Yang, Kun Luo, Yun Bai, and JianRen Fan
Space Program SJ-10 on Coal Combustion Research at Microgravity . . . . . . . . . . 113
Chen Zuo, Bing Liu, Jialun Chen, Pei Zhang, Yu Qiao, Minghuo Xu,
Qing Liu, and Hai Zhang
Formation of Ash Aerosols and Ash Deposits of Coal Blends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Zhonghua Zhan, Sida Tian, Andrew R. Fry, and Jost O.L. Wendt
Effect of Ashing Temperature on the Physicochemical Properties
of Zhundong Lignite Ashes Prepared in a Muffle Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Jianbo Li, Mingming Zhu, Zhezi Zhang, and Dongke Zhang
Upgrading of Lignite in a Tunnel-Type Microwave Oven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Fan Zhou, Jun Cheng, Jianzhong Liu, Junhu Zhou, and Kefa Cen

Part III Pulverized Coal Combustion

Real-Time Temperature Measurement Research on High-Temperature
Gas of Large-Scale Power Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Zhiwei Wang, Hongrui Li, Yifeng Wang, Baohua Du, and Dapeng Wang
Numerical Study of MILD Combustion for Pulverized Coal in O2/N2,
O2/CO2, and O2/H2O Atmospheres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
Yaojie Tu, Fanhai Kong, Kai Su, Hao Liu, and Chuguang Zheng
Co-combustion Technology of Coal and Wood Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
E.B. Zhukov, E.M. Puzirev, and K.V. Menyaev
Experimental Study of Coal MILD Combustion at a Pilot-Scale Furnace . . . . . . . 173
Zhihui Mao, Liqi Zhang, Xinyang Zhu, and Chuguang Zheng
Improving the Efficiency of Fuel Combustion in Boilers with Windmill Fans . . . . 183
Andrey Batukhtin, Sergey Ivanov, Sergey Batukhtin, and Maksim Bass
Characteristics of Submicron Particulate Matters Formed
in the Early Stage of Oxy-Fuel Coal Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Qi Gao, Shuiqing Li, Ye Yuan, and Qiang Yao
Airflow and Combustion Characteristics and NOx Formation
of the Low-Volatile Coal-Fired Utility Boiler at Different Loads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Song Li, Zhichao Chen, Bingkun Jiang, Guangkui Liu, Zhengqi Li,
Xiqian Zhang, and Qunyi Zhu
Contents ix

Measurements on Heat Flux Distribution in a Supercritical

Arch-Fired Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Dalong Zhang, Hang Shi, Chenwei Meng, Yuxin Wu, Hai Zhang, Wu Zhou,
and Shenming Ran
CFD Modeling and Field Testing of a 600-MW Wall-Fired Boiler Burning
Low-Volatile Bituminous Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
Shijian Luan, Zhanhua Ma, Heyang Wang, Yanjun Zhang, and Pisi Lu
Research on Flue Gas Recirculation Coupled Air Staging in an Industrial
Pulverized Coal Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Gao-liang Li, Fang Niu, Yan-yan Gong, and Nai-ji Wang
Arsenic Emissions and Speciations in High-temperature Treatment
of a Typical High Arsenic Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Chong Tian, Junying Zhang, Rajender Gupta, Yongchun Zhao,
and Chuguang Zheng
TG-MS Study on Coal/Char Combustion by Equivalent Characteristic
Spectrum Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Zhiqiang Gong, Hongde Xia, Zhicheng Liu, and Qinggang Lu
Numerical Simulation of Combustion Characteristics and Heat Flux
Distribution in a 600-MW Arch-Fired Boiler with Different Primary
Air Injection Angles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Zhang Dalong, Li Zhouhang, Zhang Hai, Wu Yuxin, Lu Junfu,
Zhang Man, Zhou Wu, and Ran Shenming

Part IV Fluidized Bed Combustion

Analysis of Coarse and Fine Particles Exchange in a Parallel Double-Velocity
Double-Fluidized Bed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Q.H. Wang, D.C. Song, Q. Guo, Y. Yang, W. Shuang, and X.F. Lu
Numerical Simulation for a CFB Boiler’s Cyclone Separator
with Structure Optimizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
Q. Guo, Q.H. Wang, X.F. Lu, P.Y. Ji, and Y.H. Kang
Experimental Study on Combustion Characteristics of Extremely
Low Calorific Solid Wastes in a Fluidized Bed Combustor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
Y. Yang, X.F. Lu, L. Mei, Q.H. Wang, Y. Hong, and D.C. Song
Research and Application of the Material Balance Online Supervision
for CFB Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
Wang Zhiwei, Wang Yifeng, and Chen Xincan
The Operation of the 600-MW Super-Critical CFB Boiler Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Shengwei Xin, Xinghua Li, Wengqing Zhang, and Jun Tang
CFD–DEM Modeling of O2/CO2 Char Combustion in a Fluidized Bed . . . . . . . . . 287
Yaming Zhuang, Xiaoping Chen, Daoyin Liu, and Changsheng Bu
Combustion Characteristics in 2 MWe-Class CFBC KIER Power Plant . . . . . . . . 295
Jusoo Hyun, and Yuntae Hwang
Effects of Cyclone Structures on the Pressure Drop Across Different Sections
in Cyclone Under Gas–Solid Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
Y. Huang, X. Mo, H. Yang, M. Zhang, and J. Lv
Flow Properties of Coal and Biomass on Recurrence Plot Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
Feihong Guo, Zhaoping Zhong, Heng Wang, Zeyu Xue, and Jin Zhang
x Contents

3-Dimensional Particle Tracking in a Fluid Dynamically Downscaled Fluidized

Bed Using Magnetoresistive Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
Erik Sette, Anna Köhler, David Pallarès, and Filip Johnsson

Part V Special for CO2 Issues-CCS

Dynamic Simulation and Control Design for Pulverized-Coal-Fired
Oxy-Combustion Power Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
Bo Jin, Haibo Zhao, and Chuguang Zheng
Analysis of Sensitivity and Optimization Potential for Oxy-Fuel Plant System. . . . 335
Kai Yan, Xiaojiang Wu, Lian Zhang, Andrew Hoadley, Xueyuan Xu,
and Jianwen Zhang
High-Performance of SATS-Derived CaO/TiO2–Al2O3 Sorbent
for CO2 Capture in Batch Fluidized Bed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
Weiwei Peng, Zuwei Xu, and Haibo Zhao
CCSEM Analysis of Ash from Oxyfuel Combustion of Zhundong Coal . . . . . . . . . 347
Tai Zhang, Zhaohui Liu, Xiaohong Huang, Qing Sun, Chao Liu,
and Chuguang Zheng
Application of Carbon Capture to CO2 Emissions of Steel Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
K. Iwasa, M. Hodotsuka, X. Zhao, and K. Suzuki
Dynamic Modelling and Analysis of Supercritical Coal-Fired Power Plant
Integrated with Post-combustion CO2 Capture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
Akeem K. Olaleye, Eni Oko, Meihong Wang, and Gregg Kelsall
CO2 Capture Using Hollow Fiber Membrane Under Wet Ammonia-Based
Desulfurization Flue Gas Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
Lin Zhang, Bin Hu, Hao Wu, Xia Wang, Rui Liu, and Linjun Yang
A Low-Cost Chemical Absorption Scheme for 500,000 t/y CO2
Capture Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
Hui He, Mengxiang Fang, Wei Yu, Qunyang Xiang, Tao Wang,
and Zhongyang Luo

Part VI Emission Characteristics and Controls

Kinetics of Selenium and Cadmium Vaporization During Coal Combustion
in a Fluidized Bed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381
Fenghua Shen, Jing Liu, and Zhen Zhang
Flue Gas Recirculation Impact on NOx Formation in TP-101-Type Boiler
at Estonian Power Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Vladimir Sidorkin, and Andrey Tugov
Absorption of Sulfur Dioxide in a Transversal Flow Hollow Fiber Membrane
Contactor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
Hesheng Yu, Qinghai Li, Jesse Thé, and Zhongchao Tan
Removal of Fine Particles from Coal Combustion by Heterogeneous
Condensational Enlargement in Wet Flue Gas Desulfurization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
Wu Hao, and Yang Linjun
Central Mode Particulate Matter Control by Enhanced Liquid Formation
Under the Condition of Blended Coal Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409
Ping’an Zhang, Guangqian Luo, Dunxi Yu, and Hong Yao
Contents xi

The Evolution of Bimodal Size Distribution with Spatially Inhomogeneous

Particle Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417
M.L. Xie, T.T. Kong, and Q. He
Numerical Solution of a Modified Moment Model for Particle Population
Balance Equation in the Continuum-Slip Regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423
T.T. Kong, Q. He, and M.L. Xie
Non-Thermal Plasma-induced Flue Gas Cleaning: Fundamentals
and Industrial Demonstration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
S.R. Li, S. Wang, P. Han, L.H. Wang, and K.P. Yan
Technical Progress for PM Emission Control from Coal-Fired Boilers. . . . . . . . . . 435
C.Y. Xiao
Simulation Study on the Demercuration Performance of Wet Flue Gas
Desulfurization System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439
Han Kunkun, Chi Guozhen, and Ni Jianjun
Study on Fuel-N Conversion During Rapid Pyrolysis of Anthracite
in CO2 at High Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445
Qiongliang Zha, Jing Zhao, Chang’an Wang, Yinhe Liu, and Defu Che
Analysis of Influence of Air Distribution on the Reduction of NOx Emissions
in a 300-MWe Tangentially Lean Coal-Fired Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453
Peng Zhao, Lushi Sun, Ben Wang, Jie Yu, Jun Xiang, Song Hu, Sheng Su,
and Yi Wang
Experimental Study on the Stability of the Mercuric Complexes
in Wet Flue Gas Desulfurization Wastewater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
Yu Huang, Peng-shuai Han, Xin Guo, and Chu-guang Zheng
Effect of CO2 on the Removal of NO Over Viscose-Based Activated
Carbon Fibers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
Zean Wang, Deli Zhu, Fanhai Kong, Yuhang Zhong, Hao Liu,
and Jianrong Qiu
The Effect of Gas Temperature on Dust Resistivity and Removal Efficiency
in an Extra Cold-Side Electrostatic Precipitator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
X.H. Zhang, S.Q. Li, G.L. Xiong, W. Huang, R.S. Luo, and J. Guo
Airflow and Combustion Characteristics and NOx Formation
of the Low-Volatile Coal-Fired Utility Boiler at Different Loads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489
Song Li, Zhichao Chen, Bingkun Jiang, Guangkui Liu,
Zhengqi Li, Xiqian Zhang, and Qunyi Zhu
Analysis of Iron-Bearing Phase Components in Shenhua Coal
and Their Combustion Transformation Products by Acid Separation
and Mossbauer Spectroscopy Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497
Sida Tian, Yongxu Fang, Zhizhong Kang, and Yuqun Zhuo
Effects of Flue Gas Cooler on the Reduction of “Gypsum Rain”
in Coal-Fired Power Plants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503
G.D. Li, Z.X. Sun, H.Q. Liu, H. Guo, and Z. Yang
Experimental Investigation on Slagging Grade of Zhundong Coal
Based on 10 MW Combustion Test Bed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509
Wang Fengjun, Liu Hengyu, Zuo Guohua, and Guan Jingyu
Fine Particle Characteristics from Limestone–Gypsum
Desulfurization Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515
Pan Danping, Huang Rongting, and Yang Linjun
xii Contents

Study on Mechanisms of Aerosol Formation in Wet Ammonia-Based

Desulfurization Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521
Liu Yaming, Huang Rongting, Pan Danping, Xu Qisheng, and Yang Linjun

Part VII Industrial Application and Coal Use

A Simplified Equilibrium Model for Simulating Entrained Flow Gasifiers . . . . . . . 531
Zhen Liu, Jiansheng Zhang, and Fenghua Zhang
Numerical Study of the Multiphase Gas–Solid Flow
by a TFM-DEM Hybrid Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541
Q.G. Wang, W.D. Yin, J.F. Lu, and H.R. Yang
Investigation of Coal Reactivity Effects on a 1000-MW
Tangential Coal-Firing Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547
Meng Chenwei, Wu Yuxin, Zhang Hai, Zhang Dalong, and Lv Junfu
Derivation of Low-temperature Coal Oxidation Kinetics from Non-steady
Heat Generation Rate Measured by Isothermal Calorimetry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553
Bo Li, Hui Zhang, and Changdong Sheng
Detection Technique of SO3 Content in Coal-Fired Flue Gas
and Accuracy Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563
Ding Yang, and Fang Zheng
Mixing Enhancement of Ammonia and Flue Gas in the SCR DeNOx System . . . . 567
Yang ding, Su Yinbiao, Wen Qingyun, Zheng Hao, and Ye Xinglian
Modeling of Cold Flow Field in an Entrained-Flow Gasifier
with Single or Multiple Injectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 575
Z.Y. Feng, Z. Liu, X.H. Fang, F.H. Zhang, B.Z. Peng, and Z.J. Gong
Numerical Simulation of an Entrained Flow Gasifier by an Eulerian Model . . . . . 585
H.P. Xu, H.B. Zhao, and C.G. Zheng
CO2 Absorption/Desorption Enhanced by Nanoparticles in Post-combustion
CO2 Capture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591
W. Yu, T. Wang, M.X. Fang, H. Hei, and Z.Y. Luo
Development of Reduced Order Model for the HNCERI Gasifier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597
Bo Zhang, Zhuyin Ren, and Shaoping Shi
The Promotion Mechanism of Silicon–Aluminum on the Decomposition
of Sulfates in Biomass Ash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603
Lan Zhang, Zhongfa Hu, Juan Chen, Xuebin Wang, Bo Wei,
and Houzhang Tan
Cold-State Model Numerical Simulation of Coal Water Slurry Gasifier . . . . . . . . . 609
Junjie Zhou, Quanguo Fang, and Tao Dong
Development of High-Efficiency Coal Gasification Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617
D. Ariyoshi, S. Takeda, K. Kosuge, M. Mizuno, and K. Kato
Dynamic Modelling, Validation and Analysis of Coal-fired Supercritical
Once-through Boiler-Turbine-Generator Systems Under Stringent
UK Grid Requirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 621
Akeem K. Olaleye, Meihong Wang, Chuanlong Xu, and Gregg Kelsall
The Influence of Temperature and Residence Time on Tire Thermolysis
in Subcritical and Supercritical Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 629
Fuxin Li, Aihong Meng, Qinghai Li, and Yanguo Zhang
Contents xiii

Technical Characteristic of Coal-Fired Boiler Under the Rule of Energy

Conservation and the Reduction of Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 635
Fengjun Wang, Weiguo Weng, Ying Huang, and Shijian Luan
The High Efficiency and Clean Combustion of Coal Based on Generalized
Regeneration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 639
Weizhong Feng
 Part I
Invited Plenary Speeches
 Clean Coal Technology—For the Future
Utilization

Keiji Makino

Abstract
In recent world, demand for energy is increasing rapidly. In particular, power generation is
growing fast in the most of the Asian countries. Many Asian countries are growing to be
industrialized nations and high energy consumption is needed in these countries. Among
the primary energies, coal has been major for a long time and still it is playing an important
role at present. Electricity from coal is the most stable and lowest cost compared with other
power generation, so many Asian countries are planning to install new modern power
generation facilities by coal. But coal contains various components which are harmful to
the environment. Sulfur, NOx, dust, mercury, and other trace elements are ones to be
considered. We have already Clean Coal Technologies and we can remove these substances
and emission level is fairly low. It is sometimes called as “Zero-emission coal power plant.”
We can say that the emission level of up-to-date coal-fired unit is as low as natural gas
power plants. Then, all we will do today is to install the facilities to the coal power stations
to have a clean flue gas. But big issue today is how to treat the CO2 emission from coal
power station. High efficiency is major technology for CO2 reduction. Many advanced
technologies for high efficiency are already developed and commercialized. For example,
concept of Ultra Super Critical Unit which has higher steam condition is already
commercialized and is operated in many power stations. These units generate power stably
with high efficiency. CO2 emission from these units is low. But CO2 capture, separation,
and storage, CCS, are also expected to be applied commercially for power plants of large
scale. This technology is promising and is developing in many countries. Although
technology of CCS is already established, it will take more time for commercialization.
Major items are reducing cost and power consumption. Other items for coal are severe
competition with renewables and shale gas. In Europe, for example, Germany decided to
increase renewables up to 80 % in the year of 2050. Shale gas is very hot now and amount
of coal consumption is decreasing. This paper will summarize Clean Coal Technology
(CCT) and introduce trend of high efficient coal power generations in the world. Then this
paper will also explain the problems that coal is facing. They are competition between gas
and renewables. Finally, advanced coal utilization technology that is involved JCOAL
Road Map is explained.

Keywords
Clean Coal Technology
Roadmap

High efficiency
Global warming gas
Future coal utilization

K. Makino (&)
Japan Coal Energy Center, Daiwa Nishi-Shimbashi Bldg.,
3-2-1 Nishi-Shimbashi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
e-mail: kmakino@jcoal.or.jp

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore and Tsinghua University Press 2016 3

G. Yue and S. Li (eds.), Clean Coal Technology and Sustainable Development,
DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2023-0_1
4 K. Makino

1 Introduction their coals from out of Asia. In other words, Asia needs
Clean Coal Technologies, especially high efficiency.
In recent world, demand for energy is increasing rapidly. In
particular, energy consumption is growing in the most of the
Asian countries. Many Asian countries are economically
growing so fast to be industrialized countries and energy World Electricity and Coal Demand
2040
consumption of these countries are increasing rapidly. 7000 2025 2030

Coal Demand (Mtce)

Figure 1 shows present and future world coal demand 6000
which was taken from IEA World Energy Outlook 2014. 5000 2020 2035
Total world coal demand will increase toward the year of 4000 2012
2035. But increase is expected only in Asian countries and in 3000
other areas such as OECD countries will decrease. Increase 1990
2000
in Asian countries is about 40 % from 2011 to 2035 and 1000
decrease in OECD countries in the same duration is of 25 %. 0
Figure 2 shows the relation between electricity demand 0 10000 20000 30000 40000
and coal demand from the year of 1990–2040 referring the Electricity Demand (TWh)
data of IEA World Energy Outlook 2014. In Fig. 2, world
and three areas are shown separately and year is from 1990 Asia Electricity and Coal Demand
6000
to 2040 shown in the figure. Coal demand is increasing

Coal Demand (Mtce)

sharply from 1990 to 2012. But increase is smaller when 5000
compared with the year before 2012. This means that effi- 4000
ciency of coal power generation is improving and energy for 3000
power generation has been changing from coal to other fuels.
2000
Trend of world and Asia is quite same. But trends of the
1000
USA and Europe are different from world and Asia. Increase
of electricity demands is small in the year of 1990–2040 of 0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
these areas and global demand for coal is decreasing. This
Electricity Demand (TWh)
means globally that efficiency of coal power generation may
be increased but big amount of coal will be put into other
America Electricity and Coal Demand
fuels such as renewables in Europe and natural gas in the 800
Coal Demand (Mtce)

USA. This means that energy source for electricity is 700

changing from coal to others such as renewables or gas. 600
Figure 3 shows coal production and demand in Asia. 500
Asia can supply their own coal from inside of Asia until 400
2012, but Asian demand will increase and they must prepare 300
200
100
0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Americas Europe Electricity Demand (TWh)
Asia Oceania E.Europe/Eurasia
Asia Africa
7000 Europe Union Electricity and Coal Demand
700
Coal demand (Mtce)

Coal Demand (Mtce)

6000
600
5000 500
4000 400
3000 300

2000 200
100
1000
0
0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
1990 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Electricity Demand (TWh)
Fig. 1 World coal demand, present and future (IEA World Energy Fig. 2 Electricity demand and coal demand in world, Asia, America,
Outlook 2014) Europe (IEA World Energy Outlook 2014)
Clean Coal Technology—For the Future Utilization
Production Demand
Amount of Coal (Mtce)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 perature is selected at 700 °C except USA where 760 °C is
1990 2012 2020 2025 2030
Fig. 3 Coal production and demand in Asia (IEA World Energy
Outlook 2014)
2 Clean Coal Technology
Figure 4 shows Clean Coal Technology. CCT is divided into
two categories. One is environmental protection as flue gas
treatment such as De-SOx, De-NOx, and electro-static pre-
cipitator for fly ash removal. These technologies are already
fully commercialized and all the coal power stations instal-
led these facilities in Japan in order to satisfy the emission
regulations. The words of “CCT” have been used to mean air
pollution protection, but the meaning was extended now to
global warming countermeasures in these fifteen years.
Global warming countermeasures have three items: high
power generation efficiency, CO2 capture and storage (CCS),
and biomass burning with coal. Biomass mixing is defined as
“carbon neutral” and CO2 from biomass burning is out of count.
Efficiency of Rankin Cycle (Boiler and Steam Turbine
Cycle) is decided by the steam condition thermodynamically.
Cycles that have higher temperature and pressure of working
steam have higher cycle efficiency. Super critical (SC),
ultra-super critical (USC), and advanced ultra-super critical
(A-USC) are the histories of raising the steam condition
along with realizing high efficiency. In many years, both
steam temperature and pressure were selected lower, because
Fig. 4 Clean coal technology
5
the technology of high-grade material and welding was not
reliable to raise the steam parameter.
Steam temperature of each cycle is SC: below 566 °C,
USC: 566–620 °C, A-USC: higher than USC temperature.
SC and USC are already commercialized but A-USC is not
the same level as these two cycles. A-USC is developed in
Europe, Japan, USA, China, and India. Main steam tem-
2035 2040
selected. A-USC will be put into commercial operation in
the year of 2020s in most these countries.
Other high efficiency technology of coal is combining
coal gasification and power generation. Integral Gasification
Combined Cycle (IGCC) and Integral Gasification Fuel Cell
(IGFC) are these systems which have been developed.
Former is already commercialized but latter is now devel-
oping in Japan. Key of IGFC is fuel cell.
Figure 5 shows the comparison of efficiency. IGFC has
highest gross efficiency of 60 % and IGCC has 49 %. Seven
IGCCs were already put into commercial operation in the world.
Four units among these were put into commercial operation in
the range of 1994–1998. IGCC units that started commercial
operation recently are Edwardsport 630 MW (USA), Nakoso
250 MW (Japan), and Tianjing 250 MW (China). Commercial
operation of these units is the same year of 2013. Oosaki
CoolGen IGCC which is Japanese next project was already
started installation and it will start operation in 2017.
Large commercial IGCCs for the next step are proposed
in Japan. They are Nakoso 540 MW and Hirono 540 MW.
These units are planned to put into commercial operation in
the year of 2020.
As previously shown in Fig. 4, CO2 CCS is very
important technology for the reduction of large amount of
CO2. Pre-, post-, and oxyfuel are proposed for CO2 sepa-
ration for CCS. Related manufacturers are paying their big
efforts for reducing cost and energy consumption which are
considered to be big issues for CCS commercialization.
6 K. Makino

Fig. 5 Comparison of efficiency

of USC, IGCC, and IGFC

3 High Efficient Coal Power Generation very fast recently. For lignite, Germany keeps high efficiency.
in the World In Germany, lignite has been used for major fuel of power
generation and they have many skills to use lignite success-
Figure 6 shows the average efficiency of coal power genera- fully. USC with lignite is one of them. They have already put
tion in the world. These data are calculated by JCOAL from several lignite USC units into commercial operation. They call
IEA Electricity Information 2013 for hard coal and lignite, these units as “BoA” meaning that Special Advanced Design.
respectively. As shown here, average efficiency of Japan is JCOAL analyzed the status of coal power generation by
being kept high for hard coal. Efficiency of China is improved McCoy Power Reports [1] (USA). Figure 7 shows the
installed capacity of coal-fired power generation for these
Japan Korea China ten years in the world. Total capacity of installation in a year
USA Australia Germany
UK India is 100–110 GW. Capacity is shown for Sub, SC, and USC,
45 respectively. USC is gradually increasing, and Sub and SC
(Hard Coal,HHV%)

are decreasing. Portion of USC is going higher and will go

Gross Efficiency

40
up to 60 % by 2017. China has a big coal power plant
35 market and the amount of installation every year is huge.
30 Installation of China is shown in Fig. 8. First USC started
operation in 2006, since then so many USCs started operation
25
every year. Subs are no more installed, and SCs are reducing.
20 Now, USC is becoming major in China, so average efficiency
1980 1990 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012

USC SC Sub Ratio of USC

USA Australia Germany India 120 70
45
Installed Capacity (GW)

100 60
Percent of USC (%)

40 50
Gross Efficiency
(Lignite, HHV%)

80
40
35 60
30
30 40
20
20 10
25
0 0
20
1980 1990 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fig. 6 Average efficiency of various countries using hard coal and Fig. 7 World installation of coal power plants (McCoy Power
lignite (calculated by JCOAL from IEA Electricity Information 2014) Reports)
Clean Coal Technology—For the Future Utilization 7

USC SC Sub Ratio of USC was made referring Fukushima Nuclear Accident happened
120 90
80
in Japan. Nuclear safety is very important and Japan decided
Installed Capacity (GW)

100 renewed regulations into intense level to cope with the

Percent of USC (%)

70
80 60 stronger Earth Quakes and bigger Tsunamis which may
50 happen in the future. Nuclear power plants which passed the
60
40 intense check will be approved to return operation. Three
40 30 units have already passed the check and they are preparing
20 for the operation.
20
10 In Germany, energy strategy was decided as shown in
0 0
Table 1.
Here, renewables will be increased to 35 % at 2020 and
Fig. 8 Chinese installation of coal power plants (McCoy power 80 % at 2050. It should be noted the facts happening in
reports) Germany for power generation. These facts are very good
examples for the other countries.
China Japan Italy Germany
Power generation from nuclear, hydro, and biomass is
South Korea Poland Malaysia Czeck Republic base loads. Wind and solar are intermittent supplies. Dif-
Netherland Taiwan USA Slovenia
40 ference between demand and supply, which are the sum of
35 nuclear, hydro, biomass, solar, and wind, is supplied by
Number of USC

30 conventional coal and gas. According to the report of a

25 certain day, required supply from conventional source was
20 about 50 GW for maximum day and minimum was about
15 10 GW. (This figure was roughly estimated by JCOAL from
10 original source [2].) This means that so many fossil power
5
plants must be operated between 50 and 10 GW. Frequent
0
start and stop operation modes are required even coal plants.
In Germany, even large coal units are requested for very
Fig. 9 Number of USC unit installed in the world (McCoy power high load change rate and lower minimum load by coal. No
reports) less important factors for coal plants in Germany are these
operational flexibility to compensate the unstable supply of
is gradually improving, together with demolishing so many renewables. This will be also required in other countries for
old and low efficiency coal units. In China, almost 30 units of inducing more renewables for power supply.
large-scale USCs were installed in recent years. This is quite One of the other important points is surplus electricity.
different status from other countries. German Electric Power Company generates more electricity
Figure 9 is the number of USC in the world. First USC than requested to keep the stable supply of electricity. Sur-
was installed in Japan and then the number is increased in plus electricity is sold to the neighboring countries.
China, Japan, European Countries, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, This is possible because the grid is connected in Europe.
and the USA. But the point is the price of electricity sold to neighboring
countries. The price is very cheap and it is the loss of Ger-
man electricity companies.
4 Coal Competing with Renewables Feed in Tariff of renewables is becoming big money. This
and Shale Gas is also the big issue.
According to VGB Powertech Website, Germany is
4.1 Coal Competing with Renewables developing electricity storage devices to cope with the
increase of unstable power supply from renewables. This is
Germany has decided to close nuclear power plants com- shown in Fig. 10. These facilities are Batteries, SMES,
pletely by the year of 2022. It is reported that this decision CAES, etc.

Table 1 Germany energy 2020 (%) 2025 (%) 2035 (%) 2050 (%)
strategy
Reduction of GHG (from 1990 level) −40 −80–90
Reduction of electric consumption (from 2008 −10
level)
Increase of renewables to power generation 35 40–45 55–45 80
8 K. Makino

Coal Natural Gas

Percent of Power Generation

by Coal and Natural Gas (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Fig. 10 R&D of electricity storage systems in Germany (VGB Fig. 12 Power generation by coal and natural gas in the USA (EIA
Powertech Web site) 2014)

Hard Coal Brown Coal Peat

4.2 Coal Competing with Shale Gas Natural Gas Nuclear
180

Power Generation (TWh)

Shale gas is hot in the USA. Figure 11 shows total natural 160
gas production and shale gas production in the USA referred 140
from EIA 2014. As shown here, annual natural gas pro- 120
duction was 600–700 billion cubic meters in early 2000s, 100
but the production was quickly increased because of shale 80
gas. Now, annual natural gas production is 900 billion cubic 60
40
meters, and this number is 1.3 times bigger as of ten years
20
before. Natural gas demand for power generation is
0
increasing by recent low price in the USA. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012
Figure 12 shows percentage of power generation by coal
Fig. 13 Trend of coal consumption in Germany (IEA Coal Informa-
and natural gas. Coal has been decreasing and gas is increas- tion 2014)
ing. Coal demand is decreasing, so coal produced in the USA
is exported to Europe, especially sub-bituminous coal of
constructed by itself and the objective is to estimate the share
Powder River Basin Coal. As a result, coal consumption, for
of coal power generation competing with gas. Here, “share
example, in Germany is increasing as shown in Fig. 13.
of coal” means the percentages of power generation by SC,
USC, IGCC, and A-USC together with the Natural Gas
Combined Cycle (NGCC).
5 Future Coal Utilization
How to compete is the cost of electricity (COE) of each
system. If COE is low, this system will be installed by first
As discussed here, we expect coal will still be a major fuel
priority. Figure 14 shows one of the results.
for power generation in the world. JCOAL studied the trend
Natural gas power generation continues to increase by
of future coal power generation. Simulation of JCOAL is
middle of 2025s but increase will be slow down after this
year by higher gas price. In this study, natural gas price is
expected to raise in the future. Among the coal power
Gross Natural Gas Shale Gas
1000.00
(Billion Cubic Meters)

900.00
Gas Production

800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00

Fig. 11 Gross natural gas and shale gas production of the USA (EIA
2014) Fig. 14 Simulation of trend of coal power generation (JCOAL)
Clean Coal Technology—For the Future Utilization 9

Table 2 JCOAL road map of Classification Area of Item Year of

Clean Coal Technology [3] utilization commercialization
High efficiency, low Power A-USC (700 °C) 2020s
carbon generation A-USC (800 °C) 2030s
IGFC 2030s
High ratio biomass co-combustion 2020s
Industry Low-carbon steelmaking 2030s
CO2 recovery IGCC recycled by CO2 Middle 2030s
Chemical looping Middle 2030s
Oxyfuel Early 2020s
Post-combustion Late 2010s
Large-scale CO2 conversion Late 2030s
CCS (METI road Storage of CO2 Total CCS CCS ready in 2020s
map)
Low rank coal Conversion High-efficient lignite drying Late 2010s
utilization CCT hybrid with renewables 2020s
Industry Low-temperature. Low-rank coal Late 2010s
gasification
Chemicals from low-rank coal Late 2010s
gasification
Hydrogen from Hydrogen chain Middle 2040s
LRC
Synthetic Synthetic natural gas chain Middle 2040s
natural gas

generation, high efficient IGCC and A-USC will be major in 6 Conclusion

2030–40s. Here, price of coal will go higher such as natural
gas, but COE of coal power will not go higher because
sensitivity is low to coal price. On the other hand, COE of
natural gas is very sensitive to the gas price. This is very
different point between coal and gas power and coal power
generation will increase within a long time frame.
Table 2 is part of JCOAL Road Map of Clean Coal
Technology. Items of high efficient coal use and low rank
coal utilization were picked up from the Map.
JCOAL expects high efficiency and low-carbon coal
power generation will be commercialize in the year of
2020s. Concept of these power generations is A-USC of
700 °C and very high efficient IGFC which is combination
with Fuel Cell will be commercialized in the year of 2030s.
Among low-rank coal utilization technology is expected to
be hydrogen production or synthetic natural gas production.
These commercialization will be 2040s or later.
As discussed here, coal is still an essential energy source in
many countries. But we should not continue to use coals as
today in order to reduce global warming.
We know using more coal and reduction of global
warming is antinomy.
We should develop the advanced technologies in order to
meet simultaneously economy development and reduction of
global warming gas.
References
1. McCoy Power Reports (USA)
2. The German Lignite Industry in the European Context, 31 Jan 2014,
DEVRIB
3. JCOAL Website
 Regional Distribution of Renewable Energy
and the Abundance of Fossil Fuels

Filip Johnsson and Jan Kjärstad

Abstract
This paper discusses the extent to which technologies developed for the exploitation of
renewable energy sources (RES) can be expected to substitute for fossil fuels, toward the
goal of reducing usage of fossil fuels. We compare the changes in fuel mix for primary
energy consumption and for electricity generation over the past decade between regions
with large and small domestic fossil fuel resources. We conclude that for newly
industrialized countries rich in domestic fossil fuels, there is only a moderate or no increase
in primary energy from RES, coupled with significant increases in primary energy
consumption from fossil fuels although recent but preliminary data show these trends to
weaken. We use the notion of a “fossil fuel curse,” which implies that it is not obvious that
countries with large domestic fossil fuel resources will allow these assets to remain
unexploited. This obviously imposes a tremendous threat to climate change mitigation
leaving only two choices for fossil-rich economies: leave the fossil fuels in the ground and
apply carbon capture technologies, both options calling for a sufficiently high cost to emit
CO2 or other policy intervention in order to take place.

Keywords
Fossil fuels
Domestic
Climate change
Renewable
Electricity
Fossil fuel curse

1 Introduction the efficiency of applying such a target has even been

State-of-the-art research indicates that reductions of
40–70 % in global GHG emissions (CO2eq) are required
until year 2050 to limit the global temperature increase
to 2 °C with corresponding probabilities of 88–63 %1 of
exceeding 2 °C, with further reductions required after 2050
[1]. Limiting warming to 2 °C represents a significant
challenge from both the technical and political aspects and
1 limited potential to expand hydropower in these regions.
See Table 6.3, page 431, in IPCC (2014), Fifth assessment report,
working group III, 2014 where combinations of CO2 reductions and
probabilities of exceeding 2 °C are given.
F. Johnsson (&)
J. Kjärstad
Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University
of Technology, S412 96 Göteborg, Sweden
e-mail: filip.johnsson@chalmers.se
questioned recently from a policy perspective [2].
In Europe and several other regions, the focus to mitigate
climate change is put on the investment in renewable energy
technologies, from both a policy (renewable subsidies) and a
technical perspective (Research and Development). In the
present work, we distinguish non-hydro-renewable energy
(NHRES) technologies from hydropower. The rationale for
this is that in developed regions, such as the EU and USA,
expansion of renewable energy is expected to be primarily in
energy from wind and solar technologies, given that there is
While the past decade has seen a strong growth in hydro-
power in countries such as China and India [3], the continued
diffusion of NHRES technologies is considered crucial for
decarbonization of the energy system. An additional reason
to separate NHRES is that in contrast to hydropower, the
intermittent nature of NHRES-based electricity generation

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore and Tsinghua University Press 2016 11

G. Yue and S. Li (eds.), Clean Coal Technology and Sustainable Development,
DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2023-0_2
12
requires balancing power. In fact, hydropower (with reser-
voir) can act as balancing power (although runoff hydro-
power will not provide this feature). Load following thermal
generation and energy storage technologies can also com-
pensate for variations in NHRES generation.
In recent decades, NHRES technologies, especially those
that exploit wind and solar resources, have undergone rapid
development around the world [4, 5]. Europe, in particular
Germany, Spain, and Denmark, has successfully expanded
wind power generation, thanks in large part to support
schemes (such as feed-in tariff systems). Europe has seen a
greater than fourfold increase in installed wind capacity over
the last 10 years, with installations of 128 GW in the EU-28
being reached by the end of 2014 [6]. While Germany and
Spain are leading the field of wind-generated electricity, with
a combined output of 62 GW, there have also been rapid
increases in wind generation capacity in other countries, in
particular the countries bordering the North Sea [6]. There
has also been a strong expansion of wind power in China,
with 114.8 GW installed capacity reported at the end of 2014
[4]. In several countries, the expansion of wind power
capacity has exceeded expansion in thermal electricity gen-
eration [3, 4, 6]. There has also been significant expansion of
solar power, such that in 2014 the global cumulative
Photo-Voltaic (PV) capacity was 177 GW [7]. Yet, in com-
parison with the consumption of fossil fuels, renewable
energy use is still at a low level, and since fossil fuels remain
abundant, their use is continuing and increasing in many
regions. Fossil fuels still account for around 80 % of the
global primary energy supply [3]. Thus, considering that the
main reasons for expanding NHRES technologies are to
mitigate CO2 emissions and increase the security of supply,
the question arises as to whether these technologies can be
expected to reduce in a meaningful way the use of fossil fuels
rather than promoting additional capacity or, together with
fossil fuels, contribute to meeting increasing demand. Very
little work in the scientific literature has to date addressed this
question. Yet, various studies have investigated how the
growth of an economy in a general sense relates to the level
of domestic resources, with focus on developing countries.
Thus, developing countries that are rich in oil or other natural
resources have shown lower economic growth rates than
those without these resources (this is of course for developing
countries with low GDP and not for so-called newly indus-
trial countries such as China and India). This phenomenon,
which is known as the “Natural Resource Curse,” has been
identified from econometric tests of the determinants of
economic performance across sample countries (see [8] and
references therein). While different reasons have been sug-
gested for the Natural Resource Curse [8, 9], some studies
dispute its validity, arguing that natural resources do not
dampen economic growth [9]. When it comes to the energy
system, Pfeiffer and Mulder [10] conducted an investigation
F. Johnsson and J. Kjärstad
of the diffusion of NHRES technologies for electricity gen-
eration across 108 developing countries in the period 1980–
2010, and they concluded that high-level fossil fuel produc-
tion delayed the diffusion of NHRES technologies. Friedrichs
and Inderwildi [11] identify what they refer to as “the carbon
curse.” Applying the carbon intensity (CO2/GDP) they show
that fossil fuel-rich countries have (up to year 2008) followed
carbon intensive development pathways. Related to this, in a
recent work Davis and Socolow [12] estimated the expected
CO2 emissions from committed power plants based on a data
on trends in construction of fossil-fueled power plants and
assumptions on expected operating lifetime (40 years). They
come to the conclusion that total committed emissions from
power plants are growing at a 4 % yearly rate and reached
307 Gt CO2 in Year 2012 (although with a large uncertainty
of several hundreds of Gt). A large portion of the fossil fuel
plants being built worldwide are coal plants and many of
these are built in newly industrialized countries such as China
which has large resources of domestic fossil fuels, most
notably coal. As an example, only in China coal-based power
generation increased from 449 GW in 2006 to 791 GW in
2012. Thus, this gives an increase of 342 GW [3, 13].
Assuming a power plant lifetime of 40 years, these additions
only will give rise to more than 100 Gt CO2 (assuming
7500 h of base load and 1 Mt CO2/TWh).
In summary, it appears that in developing and newly
industrialized countries with large domestic sources of fossil
fuels these assets will be used to support continued eco-
nomic development. At the same time, there are currently
only two options to mitigate CO2 emissions from the use of
fossil fuels; not using the fuels at all, i.e., leaving them in the
ground; or applying Carbon Capture and Storage
(CCS) technologies [14, 15]. To convert the CO2 into useful
energy carriers in a closed loop using a so-called Carbon
Capture and Utilization (CCU) scheme (see [16, 17]) can
hardly be an alternative of significant contribution to miti-
gating CO2 emissions, considering the enormous amounts of
CO2 emitted (cf. [18] and references therein) and the fact
that CO2 is the most oxidized state of carbon, i.e., carbon in
its lowest energy level. In a CO2 constrained world, it seems
unlikely that there will be an excess of renewable energy
required to power CCU schemes, but there may be more
cost-efficient use of such renewable energy for replacing
fossil fuels.
2 Method
The values of domestic fossil fuel resources are related to the
fuel mix for primary energy consumption and the technology
mix for electricity generation. Countries and regions with
large domestic resources of fossil fuels are compared with
countries with low resources in terms of the increase in
Regional Distribution of Renewable Energy and the Abundance …
different fuels for primary energy consumption as well as the
increases in fossil-based and NHRES-based electricity gen-
eration. As indicated above, NHRES is herein defined as
wind, solar, biomass, and “other renewables” but excluding
hydropower, given the assumption of limited expansion of
hydropower in developed regions (confirmed by the statis-
tics for the period 1990–2010). Yet, hydropower is reported
separately, since in regions which have seen high economic
growth, especially China, there has been strong growth in
hydropower, and this is expected to continue [3]. The fol-
lowing regions are assessed: China, EU-27, India, Japan,
Norway, Russia, and the USA. Germany is also assessed
separately from EU27 since it is known for its large
deployment of NHRES technologies in the form of wind and
solar power. Most of the data are taken from the IEA [3, 12,
19–22], with additional data from other sources [23–25].
Since these official data are available up to the year 2012, the
main part of the results covers up to the year 2012 (but with
recent trends from 2012 to 2014 cited above, using other
statistics such as from [4–6, 25].
The levels of domestic fossil fuels are given as reserves
and reserves plus 30 % of the resource base [21, 24]. The
resource base is defined by [24], considering several
parameters such as carbon content and, with regard to coal,
depth of deposit.
The arbitrarily chosen 30 % reflects the likelihood that
part of the extensive resource base may also be used, which
represents a significant threat to mitigating human-induced
climate change [26]. Historically, there has been a continu-
ous shift from the resource base to the reserves, mainly due
to technological advances related to mining, oil and gas
extraction, new discoveries, and increased prices. Thus, it is
likely that this shift will continue and as stated elsewhere
[14, 15], it is far from obvious that the abundant and con-
sequently relatively low-priced fossil fuels will be left as
stranded assets.
The economic values represented by the domestic fossil
fuels are estimated by simply multiplying the reserves and
resources by the current prices for coal, oil, and gas. Thus,
this paper does not provide extensive analysis of resource
economics, but rather focuses on the trends in domestic fossil
fuels and gives an approximate assessment of the relationship
to their economic value and the resources available. For the
economic value of natural resources, the term “resource rent”
(% of GDP) is sometimes used (e.g., [27]), which is defined
as the difference between the value of the resource at a global
market price and the total cost of production. As the
derivation of such values is not straightforward, additional
work outside the scope of the present paper is required for a
detailed analysis of the economic value of the fossil fuel
resources. The use of the fossil fuels obviously contributes to
a large increase in BNP by means of the resulting goods and
services created by burning these fuels. Thus, domestic fuel
13
resources have the potential to generate increased GDP
within the country or by means of exporting these fuels
contribute to GDP increase elsewhere. There is a certain span
in the way economies (countries) convert fossil fuel usage
into wealth which can be seen from the GDP/carbon emitted
which vary strongly across regions [28].
Regarding fossil fuel prices, these are taken from IEA
[21] and the price for hard coal is based on the OECD steam
coal import price in [23] for all countries. The price of lignite
is set at the same level as hard coal (USD 123.4 per tonne
coal equivalent) but is corrected for its lower heating value.
For natural gas, the following import prices have been used:
to Europe (for Russia, Germany, Norway, and the EU); and
to Japan for China, India, and Japan. For the USA, the
domestic US natural gas price has been used. The oil price is
taken as the Crude Oil Import Price. The GDP values are
from the World Bank [27].
The statistics of the fuel mixes in primary energy con-
sumption and for electricity generation are taken from the
IEA [3, 18, 21, 22, 29], with additional data for German
electricity generation from [30–32] and the 2004 values
applied to the EU-27 which have been taken from [33].
3 Results and Discussion
Table 1 lists the size of the reserves and resource base as
well as the economic values of the domestic fossil fuels
(coal, oil, and gas) for the regions investigated in the present
work. It is clear that China, India, Norway, Russia, and the
USA have large domestic resources of fossil fuels, with
associated high economic values. Coal is the dominant fuel,
with the exception of Norway, which has most of its
domestic fossil resources in the form of natural gas and oil
and where most of the economic value is realized through
export. The economic value for 1 year of production (Year
2011) ranges from 3.3 to 35 % of the GDP for China, India,
Norway, Russia, and the USA, i.e., the countries which can
be considered to have large resources in fossil fuels. While
the 35 % value clearly represents a large proportion of GDP,
the 3.3 % of GDP value can also be considered to be sig-
nificant given that it is for a “single” industry (the fossil fuel
industry) and that burning these fuels in the domestic pro-
duction system creates significant growth. The economic
values of the reserves plus 30 % of the resources for China,
India, and Russia are 33, 10, and 95 times the GDP,
respectively. Thus, for these regions, the domestic fuels
represent a very high value. Overall, it is clear that the large
reserves and resources represent important economic assets
for these countries.
For Germany and the EU as a whole, the picture is
somewhat different, in that they have much less domestic
resources of fossil fuels, with Germany having some lignite
14 F. Johnsson and J. Kjärstad

Table 1 Levels of reserves and resources of domestic fossil fuels for the regions investigated in this work, together with estimates of the
corresponding economic values and their relationships to GDP
Fossil fuels Energy content (EJ) Economic value (billion USD) Economic value as % of GDP
(Coal, oil and
gas)
Reserves Reserves +30 % Reserves Reserves +30 % 2011 production 2011 Reserves +30 %
of resources of resources production of resources
China 5254 48,627 26,164 239,058 643 8.8 3300
EU27 1066 5784 5935 28,651 156 1.2 220
Germany 372 1185 1683 5366 14.8 0.4 150
India 2584 4462 10,821 19,144 131 7.0 1020
Japan 10.2 120 59 578 2.6 0.04 9.8
Norway 118 194 1410 2350 110 22 480
Russia 5622 36,629 39,322 179,993 658 35 9500
US 7384 70,056 34,634 309,981 494 3.3 2100
Fossil fuel-rich countries in bold

deposits and the EU having a mix of mainly natural gas and
lignite (and some hard coal which since several decades are
not profitable to extract). For Germany and the EU, the
economic value of the fossil fuels is significant but much
lower than those for China, India, Norway, Russia, and the
USA. Japan has almost no indigenous fossil fuel resources
(except for a limited amount of gas) and it is highly
dependent upon fuel imports.
Table 2 shows the primary energy consumption levels,
excluding nuclear energy, divided into fossil fuels, NHRES,
and hydro, together with the trends observed in the period
2004–2012 for the countries investigated in the present study
(see above). Since there have been indications that the
growth in global CO2 emissions has levelled off in 2014, the
yearly trends 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 are included in
order to see whether there was an indication of a slowing
down in growth in fuel use between these years. For years
2013 and 2014, there are at the time of writing this paper
(spring 2015) not yet any official statistics on the use of
fossil fuels.
In China and India, there are large increases in the con-
sumption of fossil energy over the last decade (2004–2012)
with increase of 1205 Mtoe and 234 Mtoe for China and
India, respectively, whereas there are only a slight increase
in the total primary consumption from NHRES (in absolute
terms). Yet, as can be seen from comparing the two right-
most columns in Table 2, the growth in the Chinese fossil
fuel use was lower in 2012 than in 2011. In India, the growth
in use of fossil fuels was similar over the last two years
investigated and also higher than the average over the last
decade (2004–2012). Thus, up to year 2012 there was no
sign in India of a slowdown in the use of fossil fuel.
The reason for the varying amount of NHRES in India is
not known (increase from 1990 to 2004, followed by a
decrease in 2010 and then again an increase in 2012). The
well-known strong growth in wind power in China (see
below) is not really seen more than that there is an enhanced
increase in NHRES the last years (2011 and 2012) reported,
while primary consumption from NHRES remained more or
less constant from 2004 to 2010. The increase in wind power
may also have been counterbalanced by the fact that there
was a decrease in burning of biomass and waste from 2004
to 2010 (although the statistics may be associated with some
uncertainties when it comes to small-scale biomass burning).
Nevertheless, there has been a large (>40 Mtoe) increase in
hydropower in China over the last decade (and a slight
corresponding increase in India, although values fluctuate
between years). The situation in Russia is similar, although
there has been weaker growth in fossil fuels (due to lower
economic growth). The level of fossil fuel use is, however,
lower than in 1990 (which would represent “Soviet-era”
conditions). For the EU-27, there has been a reduction in
primary consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in
NHRES. This is as expected, considering the ambitious
targets for RES and GHG emission reductions of the EU,
although NHRES still represents only about one-tenth of
fossil fuel consumption (cf. Table 1). As shown in Table 2,
the decrease in fossil fuel supply was less pronounced during
2012 than in 2011. Yet, the increase in NHRES is continuing
and the yearly growth in 2012 was higher than the average
yearly growth from 2004 to 2012. For some reasons, the
NHRES growth in 2011 was only around half of the average
growth in the period 2004 to 2012.
Germany shows a somewhat more pronounced reduction
in the primary consumption of fossil fuels, as well as sig-
nificant expansion of NHRES. Thus, for Germany, NHRES
technologies can be considered to have substituted fossil fuel
technologies. However, the use of domestic lignite in Ger-
many has remained constant since year 2000 (1550 PJ in
2000, and 1572 PJ in 2014). For the regions compared, and
Regional Distribution of Renewable Energy and the Abundance … 15

Table 2 Primary energy consumption [Mtoe] from fossil fuels, NHRES, and hydro
Primary energy 1990 2004 2010 2011 2012 Δ (2004–2012) Δ/year (2004–2012) Δ/year (2010–2011) Δ/year (2011–2012)
consumption [Mtoe]
China
Fossil fuels 670 1362 2114 2423 2567 1205 133.3 309 144
NHRES 200 221 222 238 242 21 2.3 16 4
Hydro 11 30 62 60 74.2 44.2 4.9 −2.0 14.2
EU
Fossil fuels 1351 1433* 1291 1239 1213 −220* −24.4 −52 −26
* *
NHRES 49.0 81.5 152.0 156.7 169.3 87.8 9.8 4.7 12.6
Hydro 25.0 26.3* 31.0 26.8 28.8 2.5* 0.3 −4.2 2
Germany
Fossil fuels 305.0 285.9 258.1 248.9 – −37.0 −4.6 −9.2 –
NHRES 4.8 15.0 34.6 33.6 – 18.6 2.3 −1.0 –
Hydro 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 – −0.2 0 −0.3 –
India
Fossil fuels 175.0 346.0 502.0 542.8 580.4 234.4 26.0 40.8 37.6
NHRES 133.0 214.0 172.0 187.2 188.0 −26.0 −2.9 15.2 0.8
Hydro 6.0 7.0 10.0 11.2 10.8 3.8 0.4 1.2 −0.4
Japan
Fossil fuels 371.0 441.0 404.0 413.7 427.7 −13.3 −1.5 9.7 14.0
NHRES 8.0 10.0 11.0 14.1 14.0 4.0 0.4 3.1 −0.1
Hydro 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.2 6.5 −1.5 −0.2 0.2 –
Norway
Fossil fuels 10.9 14.2 15.0 – – 0.8 0.1 – –
NHRES 1.1 1.4 1.5 – – 0.1 0 – –
Hydro 10.4 12.0 10.9 – – −1.1 −0.1 – –
Russia
Fossil fuels 822.0 579.0 643.0 650.6 672.5 93.5 10.4 7.6 21.9
NHRES 12 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.4 0.4 0 0.1 0.3
Hydro 14 15 14 14.3 14.3 −0.7 −0.1 0.3 0.0
US
Fossil fuels 1655 2006 1864 1834.5 1792 −214 −23.8 −29.5 −42.5
NHRES 76.0 82.0 108.0 112.5 111.8 29.8 3.3 4.5 −0.7
Hydro 23.0 23.0 23.0 27.7 24.0 1.0 0.1 4.7 −3.7
*
Values shown are for 2003, taken from [33]

in second place to Japan, Germany has the lowest domestic
resources of fossil fuels. In Japan, which has almost no
domestic fossil fuel resources (cf. Table 1), there has been a
significant decrease in the use of fossil fuels over the period
2000–2011, although with a substantial increase from 2010
to 2012. Yet, there has been little increase in NHRES and
hydro in Japan. This pattern in Japan is mainly due to energy
conservation measures and weak economic growth. The
status of nuclear power in Japan has obviously changed
following the earthquake in 2011, and this is the reason
behind the recent increase in use of fossil fuels. There is also
a rapid increase in NHRES, especially from distributed solar
photovoltaic (PV) panels (installed on rooftops). Norway has
significant domestic resources of fossil fuels, although a
major part of its production (83 %) is exported, while its
electricity is almost entirely produced by hydropower.
Overall, while there have been only moderate changes in the
primary energy consumption in Norway over the period
2000–2011 (Table 2), there has been a significant increase in
the use of fossil fuels as a consequence of increased demand
from industry and transport. The overall small use of fossil
fuels in Norway is obviously due to that the electricity
system is almost 100 % RES based (hydropower).
Finally, it can be concluded that the USA is an exception
in that it combines very large domestic resources of fossil
fuels with a significant reduction in the primary consumption
of fossil fuels in terms of Mtoe (Table 2). This is mainly due
to energy conservation measures, a shift from coal to gas in
16 F. Johnsson and J. Kjärstad

Table 3 Electricity generation [TWh] from NHRES technologies, hydro, and fossil fuels
Electricity generation [TWh] 1990 2004 2010 2011 2012 Δ (2004–2012) Δ/year (2004–2012) Δ 2011 Δ 2012
China
Fossil fuels 523 1830 3393 3854 3916 2086 232 461 62.0
NHRES 0 2 57 115.3 147.2 145.2 16.1 58.3 31.9
Hydro 127 354 722 699 862.8 508.8 56.5 −23 163.8
EU
Fossil fuels 1462 1776* 1706 1654 1589 −187* −20.8 −52.0 −65
*
NHRES 25.0 133 321 384.5 452.9 319.9* 35.5 63.5 68.4
Hydro 286 357 *
366 311.2 335.1 −21.9 *
−2.4 −54.8 23.9
Germany
Fossil fuels 372.4 385.1 368.8 362.0 361.1 −24.0 −2.7 −6.8 −0.9
NHRES 4.9 43.0 92.7 115.1 121.7 92.6 10.3 22.4 6.6
Hydro 17.5 19.6 20.5 17.5 27.9 −8.3 −0.9 −3.0 10.4
India
Fossil fuels 212.0 560.0 797.0 835.7 956.3 396.3 44.0 38.7 120.6
NHRES 0 6.0 22.0 52.7 50.9 44.9 5.0 30.7 −1.8
Hydro 72.0 85.0 114.0 130.7 125.8 40.8 4.5 16.7 −4.9
Japan
Fossil fuels 532.0 671.0 706.0 808.4 881.7 210.7 23.4 102.4 73.3
NHRES 13.0 23.0 34.0 49.3 53.0 30.0 3.3 15.3 3.7
Hydro 89.0 94.0 82.0 83.2 75.5 −18.5 2.1 1.2 −7.7
Norway**
Fossil fuels 0.1 0.4 4.4 – – 4.0 0.6 – –
NHRES 0.4 0.3 1.3 – – 1.0 0.2 – –
Hydro 121.1 138.9 126.3 – – −12.6 ***
1.8 – –
Russia
Fossil fuels 798.0 604.0 696.0 710.9 722.4 118.4 13.2 14.9 11.5
NHRES 0 2.0 4.0 3.3 3.5 1.5 0.2 −0.7 0.2
Hydro 166 176 166 165.8 165.9 −10.1 1.1 −0.2 0.1
US
Fossil fuels 2213 2961 3060 2961 2941 −20.0 −2.2 −99.0 −20.0
NHRES 106 102 192 222.4 249.0 147.0 16.3 30.4 26.6
Hydro 273 271 262 321.7 278.5 7.5 0.8 59.7 −43.2
*
Values for 2004 are taken from [33]
**
“2004 and 2010” values are from 2000 and 2009 [20], no values available for 2011 and 2012
***
Variations in Norway are partly due to differences from precipitation, i.e., inflow to hydropower, rather than related to investments in or decommissioning
of generation capacity

combination with increased use of NHRES and a slight
increase in nuclear power, together with relatively weak
economic growth. The increase in NHRES is moderate
owing to the significant increase in domestic shale gas
production, replacing coal in the power generation sector.
Yet, it should be noted that the production of coal only
decreased marginally (between 2009 and 2014, there was a
7 % decrease, from 975 to 907 Mt) whereas export
increased by 64 % (from 54 to 88 Mt); [28].
Table 3 focuses on the electricity generation sectors in
the same regions. From the values shown, it can be
concluded that for regions that are rich in fossil fuels, the
share of electricity generated from NHRES is in the order of
a few percentage points. Of the total electricity generation
(i.e., including nuclear), the fraction of NHRES is as follows
(year 2012): China, 2.9 %; India, 4.4 %; Norway, 1 % (year
2009); Russia, 0.3 %, and USA, 5.8 %. However, China and
India, as well as the EU and Germany, have seen strong
growth in NHRES-based electricity generation in the period
2004–2012. For China, the growth in coal was also much
less in 2012 (Δ2012) than in 2011 (Δ2011), a trend which
seems to continue (based on various recent market
Regional Distribution of Renewable Energy and the Abundance …
indications). Yet, the expansion in NHRES also slowed
down from 2011 to 2012 which may be interpreted as part of
the slowdown is from a slowdown in economic growth
rather than from a replacement with NHRES and other
measures such as energy savings. In India, on the contrary,
the increase in fossil fuel use was much higher in 2012 than
the year before: a 121 TWh increase in 2012 compared to 39
TWh in 2011. The increase is mainly from an increase in the
use of coal. As for NHRES the increase seen up to 2011 has
completely stalled with no increase in 2012 (even a small
decrease which may be due to inaccurate statistics).
For the USA, the 5.8 % share of electricity generated from
NHRES has been established over a longer time period,
mainly in order to increase the security of supply. It is clear
that although there has been a large increase in NHRES use in
the USA from 2004–2012, the level in 1990 was higher than
that in the other countries. This, since a substantial fraction of
the NHRES in the USA was installed as a response to the oil
crises in the 1970s. Norway has a low level of NHRES, since
Norway has almost all its electricity generated from hydro.
The close to 100 % renewable source Norwegian electricity
generation system was established in large part before Nor-
way became a fossil fuel-producing and fuel-exporting
country and is of course due to the favorable conditions for
hydropower rather than an effect of a strong environmental
policy (although there is a high carbon tax on domestic use of
fossil fuels, i.e., mainly affecting the transportation sector).
During the last decade, there has also been an off-shore
carbon tax which has initiated capture of CO2 from natural
gas rich in CO2 in order to make the natural gas marketable.
From Table 3, it is obvious that for the fossil-rich coun-
tries (cf. Table 1) that can be considered as developing/newly
industrialized economies (China, India, and Russia), the
growth in fossil fuel-based electricity generation is much
larger than the growth in NHRES generation in terms of
growth in absolute numbers, as given in the present work
(TWh). Even in Norway, the growth in fossil fuel-based
generation is larger than the growth in NHRES generation
(albeit in both cases, the values are low and are also influ-
enced by variation in precipitation, i.e., wet year and dry year
compared with normal year influences on the amount of
hydropower). It is only in the USA that there has been a
growth in generation from NHRES similar to the growth in
generation from fossil fuels, despite the fact that the USA has
large fossil fuel resources. In fact, during 2010–2012, elec-
tricity generation from fossil fuels decreased, whereas
NHRES grew. This is, as indicated above, mainly due to that
there was a significant decrease in coal-based generation
(with 350.6 TWh) to a large extent counterbalanced by a
246 TWh growth in natural gas generation. Thus, compared
to year 2011, in which there was only little increase in the use
of natural gas, the effect of the shale gas “revolution” seems
to have been initiated during 2012.
17
For the EU including Germany, i.e., regions with low
levels of fossil fuels, the growth in electricity generation
from NHRES is significantly higher than that from fossil
fuels. In fact, as evident from Table 2, there was a reduction
in fossil generation in the EU, as well as in Germany, in the
period 2004–2012. In particular, Germany has started to
transform its energy system according to the Energiewende
(Energy Transition) strategy, which targets the electricity
generation system based almost entirely on the adoption of
renewable sources. Yet, recent reduction in the price of hard
coal has resulted in an increase in electricity generation from
this fuel [25]. It is not clear what will happen with the
German lignite-fired power plants considering the slowdown
in CCS development. If CO2 emission reduction targets are
to be met, the domestic lignite resources have to be trans-
formed into stranded assets at some point in the near future
or lignite-fired plants will have to be equipped with CCS
technologies. However, economic incentives for developing
and implementing CCS are currently poor and public
acceptance of CCS appears to be at a low level in Germany,
especially with respect to CCS schemes that involve
on-shore storage of CO2 (as opposed to the more costly
option of off-shore storage).
In spite of the fact that Japan has the lowest resources of
domestic fossil fuels of the regions investigated, fossil
fuel-based generation has increased approximately fivefold
compared to NHRES during the period 2004–2011. Thus,
dependence on fuel imports has increased steadily in Japan.
The increase in fossil fuel for electricity generation was
much higher in 2011 and 2012 than the yearly average over
the period 2004–2012 which is an effect from the sudden
reduction in nuclear generation following the earthquake in
2011. It seems likely that Japan will put more effort into
developing NHRES technologies and energy conservation
measures that match the Japanese infrastructure, which on
the other hand will create challenges for the energy grid and
capabilities for balancing intermittent electricity generation.
For China, India, and Russia, all of which have large
domestic fossil fuel resources and significant levels of eco-
nomic development, primary energy consumption and
electricity generation from fossil fuels have increased at far
higher rates than NHRES generation. In fact, considering the
primary energy consumption levels of these countries, the
increase in consumption from NHRES was only marginal
over the period from 2004 to 2012 (there was a significant
decrease in India and only a slight increase in China). The
positive sign is that electricity generation from NHRES is
substantial in China during the last two years investigated,
and in 2012 the increase in electricity generation from
NHRES was of the same order as the fossil electricity gen-
eration. Predictions [3] point to that the use of coal will peak
in 2016 and that there will be a continued strong increase in
NHRES, especially wind and solar.
18
For China, India, and Russia, we conclude that the evi-
dence points to a great challenge to substitute renewable
energy sources for fossil fuels, since leaving the fossil fuels
in the ground will represent significant “stranded assets.” In
corollary with the expression “Natural resource curse” and
similar to the “carbon curse” proposed by Friedrichs and
Inderwildi [11], we propose a “fossil fuel curse,” which
implies that countries with large resources of fossil fuels
cannot be expected to allow these resources to become
stranded assets. Thus, this represents a significant threat to
the mitigation of human-induced global warming.
In year 2014, global emissions of CO2 from energy sector
and cement production levelled out from a more or less constant
steep growth since the late 1990s. To what extent his deviation
is from a slowdown in economic growth or a true decoupling of
economic growth and emissions is too early to say. It is clear
that if emissions will regain a trend of strong growth the
remaining carbon budget which complies with a 2 °C warming
target would soon be used up. According to Friedlingstein et al.
[34], the carbon budget would be used up in 30 years (from
Year 2014) if emissions continue at Year 2014 rate. The main
threat for the global community to comply with any reasonable
warming target is the abundance of fossil fuels which so far has
maintained and increased the momentum in construction of
fossil-fueled processes: especially coal-fired power plants in
newly industrialized countries such as China. It was recently
shown that committed emissions in existing coal-fired power
plants represent 50 % of the remaining quota under the
assumption of a 50 % chance to stay below 2 °C if carbon,
capture and storage is not applied [35].
4 Conclusions
We have compared the changes in fuel mix for primary
energy consumption and for electricity generation over the
past decade between regions with large and small domestic
fossil fuel resources. We conclude that while the investigated
developing regions show modest or no increases in primary
energy from RES, they show large increases in primary
energy consumption from fossil fuels. In the USA, fossil fuel
consumption has declined over the last decade despite the
presence of significant fossil fuel resources. The USA has
also seen a significant contribution from increased energy
conservation originating from a initial high carbon intensity.
We identify a possible “fossil fuel curse,” which implies
that countries with large domestic resources of fossil fuels
cannot be expected to restrict the exploitation of these assets.
Only in the EU (including Germany), which has relatively
small indigenous fossil fuel reserves, has a reduction in the
primary consumption of fossil fuels accompanied the
expansion of NHRES. Therefore, NHRES technologies may
F. Johnsson and J. Kjärstad
be considered to have replaced fossil fuel technologies, with
the consequence that the consumption of fossil fuels has
decreased. This trend has a positive effect on security of
supply, reducing the need for import of fossil fuels.
Acknowledgments This work is co-funded by the projects: Pathways
to Sustainable European Energy Systems and the North European
Power Perspectives.
References
1. IPCC (2014) Fifth assessment report, working group III
2. Victor D (2009) The politics of fossil-fuel subsidies, international
institute for sustainable development, http://ssrn.com/abstract=
1520984
3. IEA World Energy Outlook (2014)
4. GWEC, Global Wind Energy Council (2015) Global Wind
Statistics
5. EPIA, European Photovoltaic Industry Association (2014) Global
market outlook for photovoltaics 2014–2018
6. EWEA, Wind in power (2015) European Statistics, European Wind
Energy Association, www.ewea.org/statistics/. Accessed May 2015
7. Iea PVPS (2014) Snapshot of global PV markets, IEA photo-
voltaics power systems programme. Rep IEA PVPS T 1–26:2015
8. Sachs JD, Warner AM (2001) Natural resource and economic
development—the curse of natural resources. Eur Econ Rev
45:827–838
9. van der Ploeg F (2011) Natural resources: curse or blessing. J Econ
Lit 49:366–420
10. Pfeiffer B, Mulder P (2013) Explaining the diffusion of renewable
energy technology in developing countries. Energy Econ 40:285–
296
11. Friedrichs J, Inderwildi OR (2013) The carbon curse: are fuel rich
countries doomed to high CO2 intensities? Energy Policy 62:1356–
1365
12. Davis SJ, Socolow RH (2014) Commitment accounting of CO2
emissions. Environ Res Lett 9. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084018
13. IEA World Energy Outlook (2008)
14. Johnsson F (2011) Perspectives on CO2 capture and storage.
Greenhouse Gases: Sci Technol 1(2):119–133
15. Johnsson F, Kjärstad J, Odenberger M (2012) The importance of
CO2 capture and storage—a geopolitical discussion. Therm Sci
16:655–668
16. Yu KMK, Curcic I, Gabriel J, Tsang SCE (2008) Recent advances
in CO2 capture and utilization. ChemSusChem 1:893–899. doi:10.
1002/cssc.200800169
17. Styring P, Jansen D, de Coninck H, Reith H, Armstrong K (2011)
Carbon capture and utilisation in the green economy, Report no.
501, The centre for low carbon futures 2011,
ISBN:978-0-9572588-1-5
18. Oldenburg CM (2012) Why we need the ‘and’ in ‘CO2 utilization
and storage’. Greenhouse Gas Sci Technol 2:1–2. doi:10.1002/ghg
19. IEA World Energy Outlook (2006)
20. IEA World Energy Outlook (2011)
21. IEA World Energy Outlook (2012)
22. IEA World Energy Outlook (2013)
23. OECD Steam Coal Import price (2011)
24. BGR Energiestudie 2012 - Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbar-
keit von Energierohstoffen
25. BMWi (2015) Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie,
Zahlen und Fakten Energiedaten
Regional Distribution of Renewable Energy and the Abundance …
26. Kjärstad J, Johnsson F (2012) Fossil fuels: climate change and
security of supply. Int J Sustain Water Environ Syst 4:79–87
27. The World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.
TOTL.RT.ZS. Accessed Sept 2013
28. EIA, U.S Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.gov/.
Accessed 2015
29. IEA (2011) Country Review Norway
30. IEA (2007) Country Review Germany
31. IEA (2013) Country Review Germany
32. BMU (2013) www.bmu.de. Accessed 2012
19
33. Eurostat (2010) Energy yearly statistics 2008, Eurostat statistical
books, ISSN:1830-7833
34. Friedlingstein P, Andrew RM, Rogelj J, Peters GP, Canadell JG,
Knutti R, Luderer G, Raupach MR, Schaeffer M, van Vuuren DP, Le
Quéré C (2014) Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications
for reaching climate targets. Nat Geosci. doi:10.1038/NGEO2248
35. Raupach MR, Davis SJ, Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG,
Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Jotzo F, van Vuuren DP, Quéré CL
(2014) Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nat Clim
Change. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2384
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 CHAPTER XXXI.
A LAUREL WREATH.

The spirit of unrest did not leave Kenelm Eyrle. When he met Sir
Ronald and Lady Hermione at lunch he looked very pale, ill, and
determined. He held Lady Hermione’s soft, white hand in his. “I must
ask you to pardon me,” he said. “I have no right to let my troubles
cloud your happy home.”
“I have nothing to pardon, but, oh! Kenelm!” she said, “you have
been true to your love for her, true to her memory for so long, could
you not take a new interest in life? Even she, herself, could ask no
greater sacrifice than you have already made.”
Sir Ronald had not yet entered the dining-room, and they were
standing before the long, open windows. She went to him with tears
in her beautiful eyes.
“You do not know,” she said, “how I mourn for your wasted life,
Kenelm. They tell me there is no estate in the country neglected like
yours. That your tenantry are poor and neglected, your dependents
the least prosperous of any; that over everything belonging to you
there seems to have fallen a blight. Is it so?”
“Yes. I cannot speak falsely to you, Hermione; it is so, and I do
not care to set it right.”
“Ah, if you knew,” she continued, earnestly, “how wrong it is, how
hateful to God and man are those neglected duties, you would
renounce this mania—it is but a mania after all—and begin to live in
earnest. Oh, Kenelm, be persuaded, be influenced.”
The darkest look she had ever seen in his face came over it now.
He laid his hand in hers. There was warning, not gratitude, in the
light touch.
 “Hermione,” he said, “you are good and earnest. I thank you,
because you mean well; but when Clarice died I swore to do nothing
else in life until I had traced and punished the one who slew her. You
are a happy wife, a happy mother, the honored mistress of a happy
home! She lies in her grave, forgotten almost, save by me. I am her
avenger!”
A bright flush crimsoned her face.
“Do you not think the task belongs to Ronald rather than to you?”
“No,” he replied, frankly. “There are no secrets between us,
Hermione; we both know that, although he was kind to her, although
he did his best to avenge her, yet Sir Ronald did not love her as I did.
She was the very core of my heart, she was the life of my soul.”
“And yet,” pleaded the gentle voice, “she was another man’s
wife.”
“I know it. Were she living I should never come near her. I should
never utter her name! I should, to the best of my power, trample
every thought of her remorselessly down! But she is dead,
Hermione, and love for the dead can never be a sin. She calls to me
from her grave with a voice no one else can hear; she comes to me
in the silent hours of the night when no one else on earth thinks of
her, and she reproaches me that she is yet unavenged.”
“Dear Kenelm, it is but a morbid fancy. I do not believe the dead
can wish for vengeance.”
“Justice is a mighty attribute,” he said, and there came to his face
a light she had never seen there before. “Her fair, sweet life was cut
short. She was slain even with a smile on her lips. She was young,
fair, loving and happy. She had for her own all the fairest gifts of
earth, and one foul stroke deprived her of all, and sent her without
time for one prayer into the presence of her God. Hermione, if a man
stole from you money, jewels, or worldly goods, you would cry out
that justice demanded punishment! Who so stole from her her sweet
life, with its full measure of great gifts, deserves punishment in
proportion to his crime. If word or deed of mine can bring him to it, I
pray the great God to nerve my right arm, and let no weakness come
between me and my duty.”
She looked at him with something of fear and awe—this stern
avenger, this man in whose eyes there came no light, was not in the
least like the kindly Kenelm, with whom she had played and danced
as a girl.
“We will always be dear friends, true friends, but Hermione do not
seek again to turn me from the purpose of my life! When that is
accomplished, when life has been given for life—I will atone to all
those whom I now neglect; until then I live for but one object. We will
say no more.”
Sir Ronald entered then with some visitors, and the subject
dropped, but it was strange for all the rest of the day how those
words haunted her. “When a life has been paid for a life I shall be
content.” They filled her with a strange, nervous dread and fear, a
vague terror that she could not account for nor describe. It was
something of a relief to both of them when Kenelm declared that he
must leave Aldenmere that evening. He did not tell his errand. It was
that he had heard from London of the apprehension of a tramp who
was suspected of murder, and he thought it within the bounds of
possibility that he might from him obtain some clue. It was a fruitless
errand, nevertheless it occupied his mind and gave him something to
do. When he was working for her, even though the work were vain,
he was happier for it. Three months passed, and looking back upon
the gay, sweet summer, Lady Hermione pronounced it the happiest
of her life. She had vowed to herself to win her husband from his
gloom and melancholy, to fill his life with new and varied interests, to
help him make his name famous, and she had most nobly kept her
vow. It was September now; the fruits hung ripe in the orchards, the
golden wheat had been gathered in huge sheaves, a clear autumn
light lay over land and sea; the leaves of the tall trees were falling
and lay golden, brown and scarlet under foot. Sir Ronald sat in his
study alone, the haggard, pained expression that had once marred
the dark beauty of his face had given place to a pleased, bright look
that betokened a mind fully occupied. Sir Ronald had indeed grown
famous, thanks to his wife, to her bright, cheerful intelligence, her
unwearied activity, her loving, tender sympathy with his pursuits. He
had written a book on the principal African plants. Botany had always
been his favorite study, and she had shared it with him. Directly after
their marriage she had set herself, like the true and loving wife she
was, to find out his inclinations and tastes. He was no model farmer;
the improvement of soil, the qualities of crops, the rearing of prize
cattle had no attraction for him—he left all such matters to his
dependents—but of plants and flowers he was enamored.
“I should have been a botanist if I had not been a baronet,” he
had said to her one day, with a smile, and she had mentally resolved
that he should be both. So she studied with him, she praised, she
encouraged as only good and wise women can do. Every new work
she saw advertised she sent for; she let no opportunity escape of
helping and encouraging him. His taste took a strange turn—it was
no longer confined to English flowers, the wild, sweet blossoms of
the fields and the gems of the garden. He studied with incredible
ardor the history of African plants—those ardent flowers that neither
burn nor shrivel under the warmest kisses of the African sun—
flowers watered only at rare intervals and living in tropical splendor
where others would die. This African flora had a strange, weird
charm for him. He read, he wrote, he studied, he made glowing
dreams to himself of the lives of those brilliant flowers. And then he
wrote a book about them—a book that left its mark on the age, that
was written in such glowing, fiery, poetical language men and
women read it with wonder, read and reread it, wondering why they
had never thought before of those curious facts and fancies,
wondering why a man in whose soul the light of genius burned so
fiercely had never shown the world that light before. Then scientific
men read and argued about it until the name of Sir Ronald Alden of
Aldenmere became famous throughout the land. There arose
between these learned men a wonderful discussion over some of the
plants—a discussion that created great interest and attention. The
result was that a party of scientific men who were about starting to
Africa on an exploring expedition wrote and earnestly implored Sir
Ronald Alden to join them.
 CHAPTER XXXII.
SIR RONALD’S DECISION.

On this bright September morning Sir Ronald sat in his library

alone, the open letter in his hand, considering within himself whether
he should decline without saying one word to his wife, or whether he
should consult her as to the advisability of going or not. The thought
of leaving her was most unpleasant; nay, it was distasteful to him.
She had so completely changed the gloom of his life into brightest
sunshine that it seemed to him in leaving her for ever so small a time
he must leave all the light behind. And yet the prospect was a
pleasant one. He had always liked traveling. His new pursuits were
most fascinating to him. The idea of going to Africa and seeing the
wonders of which he had been only able to read, write and dream,
was full of novelty, pleasure and excitement. Still, there was
Hermione and the children—those little children, the love of whom
had grown in his heart until his whole nature was changed. Were all
the scientific pursuits in the world worth even one moment of
absence from them? He could not decide. There were two voices in
his heart and each called him different ways. The door opened
gently and Lady Hermione entered. He was so deeply engrossed in
his thoughts that he never heard her. She went up to him. They had
no secrets from each other, this husband and wife who loved so
deeply and so well. She laid one white arm caressingly round his
neck and bent her beautiful head over him.
“Whom is your letter from, Ronald?”
“Dr. L——,” he replied, mentioning a world-wide known name, to
which the whole universe pays homage. Her face brightened with
pride and pleasure.
“Oh, Ronald, let me read it! What does he say? It is to praise you,
I am sure.”
 As she read he watched the changes in her beautiful face, the
pride and pleasure, the surprise, and then the pain. Her sweet lips
quivered.
“That is enough, Hermione,” he said. “I shall not go.”
But she laid the letter down and clasped both arms around his
neck. “My darling,” she whispered, “I am so proud of you. How can I
thank Heaven for raising you from the depths of that cruel slough of
despond and making you useful and famous? I am so happy, love.”
She kissed him with tears falling like rain.
“I shall not go, Hermione,” he said. “I would not leave you, my
wife, to have my name put at the very head of the roll of science.”
“We will not decide hastily. You would be away two years, and it
seems to me, Ronald, that the change of air and scene, the novelty
of travel, the incessant occupation and the constant companionship
of such men as Dr. L—— and Sir George Aiken would complete the
cure. We will not decide; let us take time to consider.”
So she knelt, clinging to him, loving him, admiring him, thinking
only of what was for his good—sweet, simple, loving soul, so utterly
unconscious of the doom her innocent prayers were bringing down
on her own head. They took time to think of it. They consulted
friends, who had their interest best at heart, and the universal
opinion was that Sir Ronald should go. It was with her own heart that
Lady Hermione consulted most. “If it were for five, or even four
years,” she said to herself, “I should not be willing for him to leave
us, but only for two, and they will be so happily spent. How often I
have wished that he would travel, that he would seek change of
scene! And now the very opportunity offers for travel, with men
whose very names refresh him when he hears them. If I can make
up my mind to the sacrifice he will return strong, well, hearty, happy,
with the last vestige of gloom vanished, and we shall be happy as
long as we live. He has never left this spot since the tragedy
happened, and he has brooded over it too long.”
Sir Ronald asked his friend and comrade, Kenelm Eyrle to spend
a week at Aldenmere, and help them to come to some decision.
Kenelm spoke boldly. “If I live in the shade, Ronald,” he said, “you
may go into the sun. Nothing does my heart so much good as to see
you happy, and to know that men do homage to your talent. My
advice is to—go.”
“And you say that from your heart?” asked Sir Ronald.
“Yes; and Ronald, I promise to watch over your wife and children
while you are away.”
“Then,” said Sir Ronald, “I think I shall go. Let me see what does
Baby Clare say? Baby, what shall papa do—shall he go?”
Baby Clare, quite unconscious of all that hung upon her answer,
said, in her quaint, baby fashion: “Yis, papa, go.”
So the wife who idolized him, the little children who loved him
best in the world, and the friend who was to him as a brother, all
joined in persuading him to go, knowing so little—God help them!—
of what would come from it.
“When does the expedition start?” asked Kenelm, after the
decision had been reached.
“In the middle of October,” replied Sir Ronald, and from that time
Lady Alden knew she had done right, in trying to persuade him to go.
There was, of course, the natural sorrow of a man who is about to
leave wife, home and children, but he was so eager, so interested,
so active. Day by day, hour by hour, the clouds seemed to go farther
from him. There was little trace left now of the once gloomy Sir
Ronald. Letters of compliment and congratulation poured in upon
him, in the midst of the hurry of his preparations. The number of
visitors and the many engrossing affairs to be settled before his
departure left him little or no time for sad thoughts, and if she who
loved him so generously troubled over his going, no words of hers
ever said so. If her pillow at night was wet with tears, her smile was
bright enough during the day. “It was best for him,” she knew, and
love went no farther than that.
 CHAPTER XXXIII.
“REMEMBER YOUR VOW.”

“No,” replied Sir Ronald, in answer to his wife’s question, “I would

rather that you did not go to London with me. I shall like to bid you
farewell here, so that my last picture of you may be in our home,
Hermione. I cannot fancy you on board a ship, or by a steamer’s
side, or on a crowded platform. I like to picture you here under the
rich, rippling shade of the green trees I love so well.”
“It shall be as you wish,” she replied. “I wanted to be with you as
long as I could, Ronald, but if it pleases you, we will part here at
home.”
“Yes; where I shall find you on my return. I can keep the picture
with me then while we cross warm seas and torrid climes. So cool,
so sweet, so beautiful—the picture of my beloved wife, among the
trees at home.” The September day came at last. It dawned bright
and beautiful, as some of the most unhappy days of our lives do at
times, and there was a rich, mellow gleam of sunshine in the air, a
rich fragrance from the autumn leaves and flowers, a sweet sound of
clear, birdlike music in the air, a day when Aldenmere looked its
fairest, and he was about to leave it. He rose early and went through
the grounds that he might bid them farewell in all their early, dewy
beauty. Every preparation was made, his luggage all packed and
sent on before him. He had bidden farewell to his friends—only
Kenelm Eyrle remained.
When Hermione, his wife, came out to walk with him through the
pleasant home scenes they had so often enjoyed together, he saw
the gleam of her dress in the trees and hastened to her.
“You may find taller and more beautiful flowers in Africa,” she
said, smilingly, “but you will never enjoy such mornings as these.”
 “Nor shall I ever see such a face as yours. Oh, Hermione, I am
just asking myself whether I am not foolish to leave home and you in
pursuit of science and fame. What is all the science on earth
compared to one look at your dear face, one loving word from your
sweet lips?”
“Ah, you forget,” she said, gently. “Love is very grand and noble,
but when it weakens a man’s purpose in life, instead of
strengthening it, then it is not the love it should be. You remember
the grand old lines,

I could not love thee, dear, so much,

Loved I not honor more.

I shall have blessed your lips, Ronald, if I have helped to crown it

with a noble purpose.”
“As you have done, I can fancy other women, with a weaker love
than yours, clinging to a husband, praying him not to go—not to
leave them. So few would say as you do, my darling, ‘God speed
you,’ with a smile. Hermione, I have something to ask of you.” They
were standing then under the shade of a large oak tree, the smiling
landscape around them, the smiling skies above. “I cannot tell when
I shall return. They say the expedition is to be absent for two years—
it may be longer, it may not be as long. Hermione, promise me that
you will be here to meet me as though I had been only a few hours
away. See, love, if the day of the return be bright and sunny like to-
day, come to this tree and await me here. Do you promise?”
She raised her eyes to his. “I promise you, love,” she replied, and
they little dreamed then what that coming home would be like.
He laid his hand caressingly on the golden head.
“Hermione,” he said, “you once made a vow to me—do you
remember it? When I went to you in my sorrow and desolation, and
asked you to be my wife.”
“I remember my vow, Ronald. It was to love you and you only
until I died. It was to stand between you and all sorrow, to give my
life for you if needful.”
“Yes,” he said, kissing her sweet face, “and you have nobly kept
that vow. You have been the good angel of my life.”
“I shall keep it even better,” she replied, mechanically, and then
began to wonder at her own words. So often, Heaven help us! our
idle words, our careless words, spoken without thought, without
meaning, are prophecies. This was one. Then Kenelm Eyrle came
out, bringing with him the little children—Harry, the heir, and Clare,
who had her mother’s beautiful face. He was going to London with
Sir Ronald, and the hour of starting had arrived. They all
remembered that scene long after other and more terrible scenes
had darkened their lives. How the little ones clung around him and
played around him. How Harry asked in baby language, where papa
was going, and why did mamma look so unhappy? Then Ronald
took the children by the hand and led them up to Kenelm Eyrle.
“When great warriors go out to battle,” he said, “they leave their
most precious jewels in safe hands. Kenelm, these are my jewels,
more precious to me a thousand times than all the jewels that ever
came from Golconda’s mines. When I return, my friend and brother, I
shall ask what you have done with my jewels, which I leave in your
hands.”
“I will render you just account,” said Mr. Eyrle.
Then Sir Ronald took Lady Hermione’s hand.
“This, my dearest and most beloved wife, I leave also in your
charge. You shall answer for her as you will answer for your own
soul to God.”
“That will I do,” said Mr. Eyrle, cheerfully.
“You will help her, Kenelm, with all the business of the estate.
She will not hear of any steward, or I would have appointed one.
Stand between her and all trouble, Kenelm.”
“I will,” he replied, cheerfully.
Until the last moment of his life, Ronald remembered parting with
Lady Hermione. How, when the final moment came, her womanly
tenderness overcame everything else and she said such words to
him as he never forgot! For the first time she told him how deeply,
how truly, how passionately she loved him, for the first time he saw
and understood the adoration she lavished upon him, and then, with
those words still ringing in his ears, he kissed her lips. The next
moment he was gone and Lady Alden lay in the long grass, sobbing
alone!
 CHAPTER XXXIV.
THE TOWERS.

The Towers, Kenelm Eyrle’s inheritance, was a large estate.

Perhaps the prettiest and most picturesque part of it was that called
Dower House, a large, open, healthy, airy house, standing by itself,
close to the Holme Woods. The Dower House had been, in former
generations, a retreat for the widowed ladies of the family, but of late
there had been no widows, and the place had gone somewhat to
decay. It was quite isolated; there was no other dwelling near it, no
cheerful path led to a highway, no neighboring chimneys peeped
from between the trees. It was isolated, solitary, secluded—the very
spot where one might live and die unseen and unknown.
Kenelm Eyrle had more than once looked at the large closed,
solitary place, and thought how sad it was that it should go to decay.
There were no widowed Ladies Eyrle to seek refuge there now, and
the really good, substantial property was rapidly going to ruin. Owing
to the size of his estate, and his own peculiar ideas, Kenelm had
always employed a land agent, a gentleman of intelligence and
shrewdness, who made The Towers one of the best paying estates
in the country. If Mr. Gordon had any fault to find with his employer it
was for the little interest he took in anything.
“I do not believe he would care,” said Mr. Gordon one day, “if we
found a gold mine on the property. He would raise his eyebrows one-
quarter of an inch and say, ‘Indeed!’ As for being pleased or excited
over it—nothing of the kind.”
To Mr. Gordon a man who did not care for money was simply a
blot on creation.
“I have sometimes been so successful,” he would say, “in
different works on the estate, that Mr. Eyrle has found himself a
thousand pounds the richer for it! But he never cared; he never
seemed pleased. If, as has seldom happened, we have been
unsuccessful, and have lost, it was just the same.”
But Mr. Gordon, like the sensible man that he was, had
suggested one thing—it was the letting of the Dower House. “I know
you dislike the idea of strangers about the property,” he said, “but it
seems to me a sin to let such a beautiful place as that go to ruin.”
Mr. Eyrle smiled the melancholy smile that was so habitual with
him.
“Go and live there yourself,” he replied, and Mr. Gordon gravely
assured him that if he were not married there was no place he would
prefer to it.
“Mrs. Gordon likes life. No spot suits her so well as the High
street, Leeholme, or city upon it. The Dower House should not be
empty. But, Mr. Eyrle, let me find a tenant for it.”
“It must be a tenant who does not bore me,” said Kenelm,
indifferently, and he thought no more of the matter, until one morning
he received a letter signed “J. Payton,” evidently written by a lady.
That letter interested him strangely.
“I have seen the advertisement respecting the Dower House,
and, if it be not taken, I should like to have the lease of it. I have
never seen it, but am told that it is a place where one may live
unseen and die unknown. I want such a home.”
A strange, abrupt letter, he thought to himself, yet one that
interested him, and he drove over to Leeholme, to see Mr. Gordon.
The agent, who was by no means a man of sentiment, read the letter
with very different ideas.
“Evidently a lady with a mystery. If it depended on me, I should
say ‘no’ to such a tenant. There is nothing like straightforward, plain
honesty. I dislike all mystery. Still, do as you like, Mr. Eyrle.”
And Mr. Eyrle, with the usual fatality of his sex, did as he liked.
He desired Mr. Gordon to let Mrs. Payton have the Dower House on
her own terms.
 “You only want to save the property,” he said; “you do not want to
make ever so much money out of it.”
But Mr. Gordon, although he listened with respect, did as he
liked. He had an interview with a lady who represented Mrs. Payton,
and from her demanded what he thought a reasonable rent. It was
most cheerfully agreed upon.
“Money is not of much consequence to Mrs. Payton,” said the
gray-haired lady. “The only thing she cares for is peace and
solitude.”
The agent smiled to himself, thinking how wonderful it was that
landlord and tenant should have such very similar opinions.
The Dower House was put into repair, and Mr. Eyrle, speaking of
it one day, asked:
“Did the lady call upon Gordon? What was she like?”
“Very sensible, elderly and gray-haired,” he replied. But it did not
occur to him to mention that this was not the veritable tenant, only
her representative.
Mr. Eyrle heard when they arrived, and then, after the usual
comfortable manner of his sex, thought no more of them.
One May morning, shortly after Sir Ronald Alden had left home,
Kenelm received a letter. He recognized the handwriting as that of
his tenant, Mrs. Payton. It was a letter any tenant might have
addressed to a landlord—simply asking permission to have a large
bay window thrown out of the drawing-room.
“Of course,” he said to himself, “she may have bay windows all
over the house, if she likes,” and his consent was so heartily given in
his own mind he neglected to write and assure her of it. Thereupon
came a second letter, and Kenelm’s heart reproached him.
“She will think I have neglected her,” he said, “and I had no such
thought. I must go over, I suppose, and apologize.”
He went. The wind was blowing from the pine woods, the lilac
and laburnum were all in flower, the mavis was singing in the trees,
all nature was gay and smiling. His heart went back, with a dreary,
discontented sigh to the thought of Clarice in her grave, shut out
forever from all the fair loveliness of earth and sky. The grounds
about the Dower House were very pleasant. He thought to himself as
he walked through them that one might be very happy there. He was
shown into a cool, shady, fragrant parlor, where the vases were filled
with great boughs of laburnums and plumes of lilac; there an elderly
lady was seated, who rose at his approach, and bowed to him.
“Mrs. Payton, I believe,” he said.
She looked in his face with a frank smile.
“Oh, no,” she replied. “I am Mrs. Payton’s representative. I know
of no better word.”
He smiled, too, at her frank simplicity.
“I have the honor to be Mrs. Payton’s landlord,” he continued,
“and she wrote to me respecting a bay window she wished to add to
the drawing-room.”
Again she glanced at him with the kindliest smile.
“And I hope, Mr. Eyrle,” she said, “you are going to be good-
natured and let her have it. When one looks at nothing but trees and
flowers it is hardly possible to have enough of them.”
“Mrs. Payton may alter every window in the house if she
chooses,” he said, earnestly. “I have but one hope, and that is that
she will make the Dower House comfortable for herself.”
“That is kind, for the chances are that she will never leave it,” said
Miss Hansen, with a deep-drawn sigh, and then there fell upon them
a most uncomfortable silence. Mr. Eyrle was the first to break it.
“Is Mrs. Payton an invalid?” he asked.
“No; oh, no! I do not know that she has ever had a day’s ill-
health.”
“Then, if she pleases, I will see her,” he continued, and Miss
Hansen looked at him quite aghast.
 “See Mrs. Payton?” she repeated. “She never sees any one, Mr.
Eyrle. I live with her to save her from that kind of thing. If you are
going to be very kind over the windows, could you not transact the
business with me?”
But a sudden determination had come over Mr. Eyrle. He would
see the mysterious tenant who cared for nothing but trees and
flowers. He looked at Miss Hansen with a good-natured smile.
“I think,” he said, “that I shall prefer seeing the lady herself.”
He was amused at the smile that brightened the honest, fearless
eyes looking at him.
“I am sure if you ask I shall not be denied.”
“Well, I will ask; but if you do obtain an interview it will be the first
granted to either stranger or friend.”
And the little lady rolled up her knitting and walked slowly out of
the room.
 CHAPTER XXXV.
A MYSTERIOUS LADY.

Miss Hansen was some time absent, and Kenelm Eyrle awaited
her return in grim silence. He did not, as some men would have
done, amuse himself by looking around the room, seeking to guess
the character of its occupants, as was usual with him; he forgot
everything except Clarice, whom he had loved and lost.
“I have been a long time, Mr. Eyrle,” said the cheerful voice of
Miss Hansen. “Mrs. Payton was out in the grounds. I shall soon
believe there is magic in your name, for Mrs. Payton is willing to see
you.”
Evidently the little lady was startled.
“Will you follow me,” she said, “to the morning-room? We found
so many rooms at the Dower House that we have been puzzled how
to name them.”
He followed her to a large, bright, cheerful room—a room that
seemed, at first sight, somewhat crowded with pictures and statues.
His eyes were dazzled at first, for the sunbeams were very bright;
then, as he grew accustomed to the light, he saw before him the tall,
stately figure of a lady, dressed in deepest mourning. He was so
completely unprepared for her wonderful beauty that he looked at
her for a few minutes, quite unable to speak. Then his face flushed
at his own awkwardness.
“I must apologize,” he said. “I was under the impression that Mrs.
Payton was an elderly lady. You will think me very ill-bred—very
stupid.”
Perhaps she had known the force of her own beauty in happier
days, for a sad smile half rippled over her lips, then died away.
 “I may plead guilty to the same mistake,” she said. “I thought Mr.
Eyrle very much my senior.”
“So I am,” he replied.
“You are very kind to give yourself the trouble of calling upon me,”
she continued. “I want your permission to have a large bay window
made in the drawing-room; it is my favorite room; the view is very
beautiful, but the window is small.”
“I can have no possible objection,” he replied, courteously.
“It will be expensive,” she said.
“That will not matter; it will serve to beautify the home.”
Again the same sad, faint smile.
“You are different from most of the landlords in whose houses I
have lived,” she said. “That is the primary consideration. I thought I
would explain to you that the alterations I should like to make will not
affect other tenants, as I have every wish and hope, be my life long
or short, to spend it here.”
He looked at her in unaffected wonder, thinking to himself that it
could be no ordinary sorrow that caused so young and lovely a
woman to spend her life in seclusion. He had rarely, if ever, seen a
more beautiful woman. She was tall, with a finely formed figure, full
of gracious, graceful curves, that made every movement seem like a
note of richest harmony. She had a lovely Spanish face, dark,
beautiful, dreamy, but inexpressibly sad; there were purple rings
around her dark eyes, as though she wept much and watched more;
there was no light in the faint, sad smile that rippled over her lips. As
one sees sometimes a perfect flower, over which saddest blight has
fallen, so was she blighted in her youth, in her beauty, by some
terrible sorrow, the nature of which no one could guess from her
face.
He was thinking intently of her, wondering so deeply what her
history was, that he was not aware that she had spoken to him twice
without receiving any answer. When he discovered it, for the second
time during the interview, his face flushed hotly at his own
awkwardness. He tried to bring the interview to a more businesslike
conclusion.
“I am afraid, Mrs. Payton,” he said, “that you find me very stupid. I
had a dreadful trouble years ago, and it has made me unlike every
one else.”
He saw a gleam of kindly sympathy light up her dark eyes.
“Trouble?” she repeated, wearily. “I think every one in the wide
world has that. I never hear of anything else. Trouble? I ask myself
sometimes why we were created to do nothing save suffer. Do you
remember those lines of Barry Cornwall’s?

“We toil through pain and wrong;

We fight and fly;
We have, we love, and then ere long
Stone dead we lie.

“There you have life—a little pain, a little wrong, a little love, then
stone dead we lie.”
Words could no more describe the melancholy of her voice than
they could the beauty of her face.
“You are very young,” he said, pityingly, “to know so much more
of sorrow than of joy.”
Then she seemed suddenly to remember that she was talking to
a stranger, one whom a few moments before she hardly saw. She,
too, grew slightly confused, and abruptly changed the conversation.
“As landlord and tenant,” she said, “we ought to have some
agreement, I suppose. I do not wish to cause you any heavy
expense, and if my whim be gratified, I am perfectly willing to defray
a just share of the expense.”
“You want a pretty window?” said Kenelm, suddenly. “I will give
you a design.”
 He took his pencil, drawing a sheet of paper near him, with a few
bold, graceful strokes, he completed the design of a very handsome
window. He showed it to her.
“Yes,” she said, “that is what I want. How quick you are to seize
upon an idea! To make that perfect there should be purple passion
flowers around these fluted pillars.”
“And a beautiful face peeping through the leaves,” he said. “You
shall have the window, Mrs. Payton, and when it is completed to our
satisfaction, we will arrange such minor and uninteresting details as
expense. You must let me come sometimes to see how the design
progresses.”
“I cannot refuse you admittance to your own house,” she replied,
with a smile, “but my rule is imperative. I see no visitors.”
“Then I shall come as landlord, architect, window-designer, or
any other character save that of visitor; then you will not refuse to
see me.”
“You are so kind,” she said, with a graceful courtesy. “I can never
do that.”
There was no pretense for prolonging the interview and Kenelm
rose from his seat.
“As you receive no visitors, I may presume you do not visit. I
have never met you out. Have you seen Leeholme church? It is
considered very beautiful and picturesque.”
“I have never left the Dower House since I entered it,” she
replied, “and most probably, when I enter Leeholme church, it will be
when I am taken there to be buried. I say this to you, but I do not
know why I give my confidence to a stranger.”
“They say that the happy are attracted to each other—perhaps
the unhappy are the same,” he said, and then he left her.
But as he walked home he thought more of that beautiful Spanish
face than he had thought of anything since Clarice died.