Chinese Port In Myanmar – Threat To

India
Levina Tue, 20 Dec 2022 | Reading Time: 5 minutes

 China has found the shortest possible entry into Indian Ocean to circumvent the
traps laid by QUAD. India’s eastern belligerent neighbour China has expedited its
work in the Kyaukpyu dual purpose port. This port may soon bear the footprint of
Chinese Navy which could lead to a redrawing of the security architecture around
the Indian Ocean, which is a concern for India and should be a concern for the
West.

Why Kyaukpyu port is Perilous to India?

The port is located on the western coast of Myanmar and is part of a Special Economic
Zone (SEZ) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). When developed this will
not be far away from INS Varsha, a submarine base, India is developing on its east coast,
close to Vishakhapatnam.
  Negotiations on Kyaukpyu port predate the famous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI);
the Chinese conglomerate CITIC had signed initial memorandums of
understanding (MOUs) for the port project and a railway connecting the SEZ to
southern China in 2009.
 On India’s west, since sometime China has been using Pakistan to expand its most
ambitious project called CPEC (China-Pak Economic Corridor) which will be part
of BRI. But CMEC in India’s east demands greater attention as China’s presence
in this lawless country of Myanmar has surged tremendously after the military
coup last year, which in all likelihood was carried out to get rid of a democratic
government which was not falling to Chinese demands.
 Now China has a free run in Myanmar after the coup as there is no one to stop
them and this is unlike Pakistan, which still has a functional government, and
remains constantly under American and Indian radar.

Kyaukpyu port is China’s back door entry into Indian Ocean!

 China already controls part of Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, and Gwadar port in
Pakistan. Both ports are used by Chinese for its civilian and military ships. The
 third port which will soon be accessible to China will be in Myanmar and that too
will serve dual purpose.

Why is Kyaukpyu Important for China?

To understand China, one must comprehend two of its strategies

1. China’s Two ocean strategy

2. China’s Malacca dilemma.

 The 2-ocean strategy in its simplest definition focuses on ensuring China’s easy
access to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific in order to break with what China
perceives as the encirclement of its borders.

 China’s Malacca Dilemma is also about its free movement in the ocean but
specifically in the Malacca strait. It’s about the choke point or a narrow region in
the sea in Malacca through which all the Chinese civilian and military ships
including submarines are forced to pass as China doesn’t have a better access to
Indian Ocean.

So US, Japan and India had created a network of submarine detection system from South
China sea to Andaman to keep a tab of Chinese activities. This network is called SOSUS
— Sound Surveillance System.
 The SOSUS network had been stifling Chinese trade and it had been feeling
suffocated as movements of ships and vessels were being monitored continuously.
Ergo it came up with a plan to circumvent the trap by QUAD.
 Plan A of course was accessing Indian Ocean through Pakistan, but the terrain in
Gilgit Baltistan is unfriendly and America’s heavy presence in Pakistan and
Afghanistan region kept the Chinese on tenterhooks.
 This led them to also push for an alternative route which was less risky and
Myanmar fits that bracket. A lawless country which has been in the thick of chaos
since decades and has largely been ignored by West. Myanmar became their Plan
B!
 China decided to pass BRI through Myanmar and they came up with BRI
corridor’s “jewel in the crown”, which is a dual purpose deep-sea port to be built
at Kyaukphyu, on Myanmar’s west coast, at an estimated cost of $7 billion. Plans
for the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone or KP SEZ project were first
announced in 2013. The project is also called CMEC, just like CPEC in Pakistan.
The CMEC is a 1700-kilometer, inverted y-shape corridor.
The term “jewel in crown” is clearly China’s wicked humour for circumventing QUAD’s
trap.

Kyaukphyu is the site where the Sino-Myanmar pipelines originate. This caters to
China’s energy needs. The gas-fired power plants with a combined capacity of around
300 Megawatts is being built here, which will be connected with a 1400-km high-speed
Kunming-Muse-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu railroad linking the KP SEZ with China, making
it the shortest and most economical path between China and India.

Kyaukphyu SEZ, courtesy: Irrawaddy

Many think tanks from Myanmar report that China’s biggest hurdle in Myanmar was the
democratic government which was toppled. China could not have asked for more. It was
reported that in 2019, China had grudgingly accepted many conditions by the Myanmar
government. Then in January 2020 Chinese President visited Myanmar. The meeting
took place just a few weeks before the world went into a shocking lockdown.

What are the Military Implications of CMEC?

CMEC will enable China’s Navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), to
monitor India in the Bay of Bengal. Ostensibly by the year 2030, PLAN or the Chinese
Navy will have 67 new major ships and 12 new nuclear-powered submarines, enough to
control the Indian Ocean, according to US Naval Intelligence.

There are also reports that as many as 125 foreign vessels can be present at any given
time in the Indian Ocean, and that will be the greatest number of vessels to be present in
the region since World War II.

Yes, the situation is alarming!

Indian government is preparing a gamut of counters and one of them is SAGAR. The
acronym SAGAR stands for –Security and Growth for All in the Region. Since the first
usage of the phrase in 2015 at Port Louis by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the
term has been adapted to include more elements such as linkages with the Indo-
Pacific region.

SAGAR involves increasing maritime domain awareness. This is implemented through

the Integrated Coastal Surveillance System. Coastal radar systems have been sponsored
by India and put up in many countries along the Indian Ocean.

So while SAGAR is part of India’s official policy, India has not revealed much about it.
The author has written more about it in the article here. Tightening the Noose Around
Chinese Ships: India’s Coastal Surveillance System & SAGAR Policy
Indian Foreign Minister visits Maldives as a part of India’s SAGAR initiative

India has been expediting its ways to counter China’s maneuvers in Indian ocean, but the
reality is that India doesn’t have big pockets like China to influence all its neighbours.
Developmental projects by India in Myanmar have slowed down after the military junta
coup, but efforts are on to keep the junta on India’s side.

Landlocking India—Warning Bells In

Andaman And Kerala
India is blessed to have a coastline that juts into the world shipping routes. Since ancient
times India capitalised on its thousands of kilometers long coastline but the recent
incidents in Vizhinjam in Kerala and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands is a reminder that
we must protect our shores and ports, aggressively.

The Strategy!
Landlocking India: Approximately 90% of the world’s trade is carried out over the
waves of ocean. Maritime shipping without an iota of doubt is a huge business.
International ships have the propensity to gravitate towards India’s 7510 Km long
coastline, 13 major ports and 187 minor ports for the ease of shipping. This is perceived
as a threat to many ports across the world. Paucity of ships to India’s ports works in
favour of many international entities. Keeping Indian ports marred in controversies and
emasculated is as good as turning India into a landlocked country. This affliction to the
Indian economy will weaken the democracy called India.

Necklacing Major Indian Cities with radicalized elements from India’s neighboring
countries. According to an intel report in 2008, inimical elements were strategizing to
settle radicalized elements from other countries in the periphery of major cities in India.
This included the ports and coastal cities. The section of illegal immigrants who can be
easily radicalised and mobilised against the India during a crisis, are the targets of enemy
intelligence agencies. Fifteen years after the report, we have witnessed how the menace
of illegal immigrants can transmogrify themselves into a national security threat.

Andamans & Rohingya

On Feb 13th a motorboat named ‘Ma-Babar Doa’ (blessings of parents) with 69

Rohingyas (19 men, 22 women and 28 children) reached Car Nicobar. Ostensibly
the occupants claimed that their boat was headed to Indonesia but reached Andaman and
Nicobar due to bad weather, and their boat ran out of fuel.
The incident took place a week after the UN Human rights commission report was
published that said–“in 2022 alone, nearly 350 Rohingya refugees lost their lives or went
missing while attempting dangerous boat journeys across the Andaman Sea & Bay of
Bengal”.

A source said– “Occupants of the boat could be right about the boat being headed to
Indonesia. Last year in a similar incident India refused to budge under pressure of
international organizations to shelter 2 boats with 180 Rohingyas. Indian Navy provided
them food and medicines and then towed them to Indonesia. The boat had tried entering
Malaysia and India but were allowed to disembark its occupants in Indonesia.”

The incident is true. Last year 2 fishing boats with 180 Rohingyas had indeed reached
Indonesia after many countries refused to give them shelter. India faces a genuine
problem of illegal immigrants—be it Rohingyas from Myanmar in the east or the Sri
Lankans in the south.

Rohingyas have been fleeing Myanmar in thousands since 2016. In India alone there are
about 40,000 Rohingyas of which only 50% are registered with UNHCR. The numbers
may have surged since the original report was published in 2017.
According to the Indian law an illegal immigrant cannot be classified as a refugee. United
Nations’ principles of non-refoulement and impediment to expulsion do not apply in
India as India is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention.

Bangladesh has absorbed about a million Rohingyas into the refugee camps of Cox’s
Bazar in the southeastern part of the country. But soon the Bangladesh’s government
realized that they had landed themselves in a quandary.

“They have created problems for the living and livelihoods of the local Bangladesh
people,” –Sheikh Hasina, PM of Bangladesh said to UN as she requested UN’s help in
moving out Rohingyas to an island. Bangladesh has already shipped off 30,000
Rohingyas to Bhasan Char, a remote island in it’s southeast formed by silt deposition.
India has definitely taken a leaf out Bangladesh’s experience.

But this still doesn’t help in whittling down the surging number of illegal immigrants
from India’s neighbouring countries where the economies are collapsing or have
collapsed. Sri Lanka is an example. Last year a boat with 24 Sri Lankans were arrested
from Kerala. The Tamil Nadu Police had traced location of 2 missing tourists, in Kerala.
Later it was revealed that the illegal immigrants were planning to move to Canada and
Australia in shipping boats from Kochi. Apparently, this global trafficking racket is
rampant in southern parts of India.

Illegal immigrants will never become India’s citizens is a reality. This grouse makes them
an easy target of inimical elements who might use them against India.

Foreign Interference in Vizhinjam Port

For over a few months Indians were bombarded with the scenes of protests from Kerala.
This has probably been India’s most controversial port in recent times, or at least since
last 25 years when it was first decided to resuscitate an ancient port from southern India.
The Vizhinjam port’s maritime history goes back 2000 years, or more.

The depth of ports in New York, Southampton, Singapore, Dubai, Colombo, Hong Kong
is approx. 15 meters, and requires dredging if the depth has to be increased. Vizhinjam
port site’s natural depth is 24 m, the port comes with a few more added advantages like
it doesn’t need dredging due to its depth (which saves money during construction) and
there is no littoral sedimentation, which reduces the effort for maintaining it. Once
completed, the port can attract a behemoth share of the container transshipment traffic
which is now being diverted to Colombo, Singapore and Dubai.

Viola! That’s enough to cause ripples across the world, in different countries. So why are
we surprised this project took 25 years and still hasn’t been completed?

Be it the Sterlite plant in Thoothukudi or the Kundankulam nuclear power plant—protests

in the past have stalled projects of strategic significance. In fact, protests are an ideal way
to push a democracy into a quagmire. The author had posted on it. You can read it
here: Destabilizing a Democracy Through Protests

Chinese companies had their hawk eyes on Vizhinjam port’s developments. They almost
came very close to winning the tender to develop the port when in 2006 Indian Govt
decided to keep Chinese companies away from Indian ports.

In Vizhinjam’s case it’s a bête noire for multiple entities:

o The politicians, with a base in Kochi don’t want the Vallarpadam Container Terminal in
Kochi, located 200 Km from Vizhinjam port, to lose its sheen.
o Clergymen in Vizhinjam! Few years ago, some Clergymen were involved in inciting the
fishermen to protest against Kundankulam nuclear power plant too, with the assistance of
foreign entities. Ex Indian Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh himself in a statement
said that the protests received funds from a powerful country.
o Dredging and maintenance of ports facilitates in funneling a lot of money into the pockets
of many in the higher echelon. But alas! Vizhinjam port won’t need dredging.
India being a democracy, protesting is not against the law. But most of the protestors and
arguments against the port vanished into thin air when Intelligence Bureau took up an
investigation. According to reports, 10 voluntary organizations will be investigated for
foreign funding.

No King Wants to Lose His Crown!

The World Bank says India is expected to be the fastest growing economy of the seven
largest emerging-market and developing economies. This can also be interpreted as–
India will be a competition for major powers across the world. No king wants to lose his
crown!

This is why it is not wrong to assume that interference of foreign entities will surge as
India progresses.

India’s vast littoral zones must be aggressively safeguarded, and hawk eyes of India’s
intelligence agencies must protect its ports. As far as Human Rights organizations and
illegal migrant boats are concerned, India must adopt a policy akin to the one by its allies
in middle east. One must ruminate on what a foreign minister from a middle eastern
country said about the menace of illegal migration to Europe—you will suffer!
India Needs Large Aircraft Carriers

 The recent public statement by the serving Naval chief that the navy hopes
to place a repeat order on Cochin Shipyard for another Vikrant class is only
partly encouraging. Partly because India needs another carrier; disappointing
because it will be only of 40000 tons. A 40000 tons carrier will embark
about 25 aircraft which will certainly dominate the seas around the fleet, but
fail to ‘project’ Indian power, trans-continently. In other words, the Vikrant
class of carrier will suffice for air domination, but not for power projection.
Why is power projection imperative? That question can best be answered
only by another question. What should the armed forces of the world’s third
most powerful nation look like?
  While one cannot go into all the details, the broad particulars are clear. An
army of one million, three hundred thousand soldiers, to protect territorial
integrity would be a complete waste of money. The very term ‘third most
powerful country’ envisages a regional power, applying its power through
theater commands in and around the Indian ocean, West Asia, SE Asia and
the Malacca Straits. The backbone of these theaters will rest on a power
projection Navy and expeditionary air forces. In any case, having the fourth
largest air force whose primary task is defending territorial air space only, is
an absurd waste of resources. The armed forces of the world’s third most
powerful nation must be an outward looking, power projecting force that
influences India’s diplomatic outreach in the Indian ocean littoral, West
Asia, and South-East Asia.

To achieve this, we need overseas airbases in probably Great Nicobar, to dominate

the Malacca Straits and in Masirah (Oman) to dominate the Persian Gulf, the Gulf
of Aden and suppress the Chinese base in Djibouti. The air power will be backed
by the naval air arm operating from two power projection carriers of roughly
80,000 tons, embarking roughly 70 to 80 aircraft each. The air component would
consist of 48 fighter /ground attack, five air early warning aircraft, three electronic
warfare versions, six ASW helicopters and four general duty aircraft. Only a
carrier of such a size can approach a hostile shore and fight against shore-based
fighters of larger weight and dimension. The Rafael would be adequate if
supported by AEW and ELINT aircraft for which the carrier must be bigger than
the Vikrant. In other words, the carrier should not just be a naval platform, but a
floating projection of the country’s power. Its primary purpose would be to
influence the decisions being made in India’s region and in that sense, it would be
a national asset, and not just a naval platform.

 Sir John Cable, the British diplomat who wrote the famous book ‘Gunboat
Diplomacy’, had insisted that Navies are diplomatic tools, a feeling
expressed later by Gorschkov who referred to navies as instruments of state
 power. So, it was acceptable that in 1947, the armed forces were meant to
preserve the newly won territorial integrity, but it is very rarely, as for
instance, in the case of Ukraine that armed forces are designed only to
preserve territorial integrity. In mature democracies, armed forces are meant
to exert external power in support of a country’s foreign policy. India, as the
future 3rd most powerful nation will want to influence the politics of the
Middle East and South-East Asia and there is nothing that gives weight to
Indian diplomacy, as a large aircraft carrier.
 Advocates of land power in India might turn around and say the only ‘threat’
faced by New Delhi is in the Himalayas. But the statement would be based
on poor calculation and even poorer strategy. In the Himalayas, China
possesses superior geography, and it would be unwise of India to take on
both China and geography. From the trijunction of Myanmar, India and
China, all the way along the border up to Aksai Chin, the Chinese have built
a six-lane highway. In some places the road is backed up by bullet trains.
Using this road, the Chinese can move large bodies of mountain
acclimatized troops laterally to concentrate the force anywhere on our
border. This advantage is so enormous that they have downsized the PLA to
975000 men, 300000 less than the Indian Army. On the other hand, China
has a poor maritime geography, and we should target their oil supply in the
Indian ocean, from where 64% of their oil transits. What is more, we should
then induce the PLA (Navy) to come to the Indian ocean to give battle to the
Indian Navy, transiting through the geographically constricted Malacca
Straits, where we can fight to our advantage with aircraft carriers and an air
force base in Great Nicobar, thus turning the Malacca Straits into a Chinese
killing ground. To add to their woes, we should also attack them in the Gulf
of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden. Once Beijing knows what our maritime
strategy is, they will never attack us in the mountains because of the costs
and consequences in the ocean.
Lastly, one must give a reply to those who argue that aircraft carriers are
vulnerable. This is a poor argument, based on a one-on-one analysis, which is
contrary to all logic of threat analysis. For instance, if one places a soldier with a
rifle behind a bush against advancing infantry, and then concludes that the rifleman
behind the bush can kill any number of advancing soldiers, and therefore conclude
that the infantry is worthless; that would be a poor argument. Similarly, a missile
pitted against a carrier would produce wrong results. Real threat analysis must
include scenario analysis considering ‘all’ the other factors, such as the vastness of
the ocean, evasive maneuvering, the presence of surface escorts and often, an
escorting SSN. However, admittedly the long years of peace in between wars is
where the large carrier will prove to be an overwhelmingly powerful diplomatic
argument in geo-politics. A large carrier, when its operational capability is
considered, is virtually like another country. Covering 600 miles a day, a moving
carrier battle group is a powerful but unstated argument. But of course, this applies
only to the large carrier, and not necessarily to the air-defence carrier like the
Vikrant. Being the third most powerful country, without power projection capacity
is a damp squib, and the only Vanguard of power projection is a large carrier,
followed by Amphibious Task Forces.

So, in the next 10 years when the power shift of India is expected to take place,
there is reason to hurry to alter defence priorities from territorial integrity to power
projection and from guarding frontiers to threatening enemy shorelines. Today,
Japan has the third largest GDP, followed by Germany and the UK. No one
however speaks of Japan as the third most powerful nation, much less a powerful
nation. Nor is Germany looked upon as anything but a technological power.
Therefore, if India, as is predicted overtakes Germany and Japan in GDP, it does
not automatically become a ‘powerful’ nation. To achieve that, the armed forces
must be completely revamped, the army reduced in manpower, the navy given
power projection teeth and the air force converted into an expeditionary air force.
In future when an Indian diplomat speaks in our region, his words must be backed
by the force of giant power projection aircraft carriers.