Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Wether Forecasting in India
Wether Forecasting in India
net/publication/321137908
Article in International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences · November 2017
DOI: 10.20546/ijcmas.2017.611.070
CITATIONS READS
10 9,362
4 authors, including:
All content following this page was uploaded by Vijay Kumar Didal on 14 December 2020.
ABSTRACT
Keywords
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict
the state of the atmosphere for a given location and they are made by
Weather forecasting, collecting quantitative data. Soft computing is an innovative approach to
Indigenous
Technological construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to possess
Knowledge (ITK). humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn
Article Info to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make
decisions. Soft computing techniques are Fuzzy logic, Neural Network,
Accepted:
07 September 2017 Evolutionary computing, Genetic Algorithm etc. In this paper description
Available Online: about status, scope, types, role, significance, limitations, techniques and
10 November 2017 ITKs of weather forecasting in India.
Introduction
Weather forecasting is the prediction of what often involved in picking the most appropriate
the atmosphere will be like in a particular model for a situation (Craft, 2010).
place by using technology and scientific
knowledge to make weather observations. In The main ways the weather can be forecast
other words, it's a way of predicting things include looking at current weather conditions,
like cloud cover, rain, snow, wind speed and tracking the motion of air and clouds in the
temperature before they happen (Cahir, 2013). sky, finding previous weather patterns that
Weather forecasters use all kinds of tools to resemble current ones, examining changes in
achieve this goal. We have instruments called air pressure and running computer models
barometers to measure air pressure, radar to (Banerjee et al., 2003).
measure the location and speed of clouds,
thermometers to measure temperature and The environment in which crops are grown
computer models to process data accumulated dictates their final yield. Of these
from these instruments. However, to this day, environmental factors, climate and weather,
humans with good experience can still do a the uncontrollable factors have maximum
better job at predicting the weather than influence on crop productivity (Cahir, 2013).
computer models alone because humans are Vagaries of weather subject the crops to
577
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
different ecological situations from year to The condition of the atmosphere must be
year leading to differential responses of crops known at a specific time with sufficient
to input use. This situation limits use of costly accuracy.
inputs for realising optimum yield. Therefore,
the primary requirement for initiating The laws must be known, with sufficient
agronomic measures against weather hazards accuracy, which determine the development
is foreknowledge of weather situation that is of one weather condition from another.
likely to develop in an area (Venkataraman,
2002). Forecast requirements during different
seasons
Significance of weather forecasting
To a large extent, crop production in our
Weather forecasting can help agricultural country depends on rainfall vagaries. Long
activities in the following ways: range forecasts needed for kharif and rabi are:
Predicting pests and diseases incidence for Onset of heat waves and strong winds in
timely action. spring, and
Timing of weeds, pests and disease control. Hail storms at commencement of summer.
Adjustments in crop harvest timing to reduce Several organizations all over the world
the losses at harvest. measure weather elements and forecast
weather conditions. Accepted norms are
Problems of weather forecasting developed for measuring, assigning values
and codes for different countries. India
The problems of weather forecasting, as seen Meteorological Department was established
from the standpoints of mechanics and in 1975 with headquarters at Pune.
physics. If, as every scientifically inclined Agricultural Meteorological Division was
individual believes, atmospheric conditions started in 1932 for conducting research on
develop according to natural laws from their crop weather relationships. A major step was
precursors, it follows that the necessary and taken in the early forties to set up specialized
sufficient conditions for a rational solution of meteorological observatories in crop
the problems of meteorological prediction are environment to inculcate weather
the following: consciousness among farmers and to develop
578
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
farm environment climatology. This has viability and vigour of seeds and planting
resulted in steady growth of observatories, material during storage.
besides agromet observatories, synoptic
weather stations also record data such as Thus, there is no aspect of crop culture that is
rainfall, temperature, radiation, wind velocity, devoid of the impact of weather. However, (a)
evaporation, etc. The National Commission the weather requirements for optimal growth,
on Agriculture recommended establishment development and yield of crops, incidence,
of Principal Agromet Observatories in each of multiplication and spread of pests and
the Agricultural Universities. diseases and susceptibility to weather-induced
stresses and affliction by pests and diseases
The synoptic observatories collect vary amongst crops, with the same crop with
information on various weather elements on the varieties and with the same crop variety
the basis of which daily forecasts, warnings with its growth stages. Even on a
and weather reports are prepared by five climatological basis weather factors show
regional forecasting centres situated at spatial variations in an area at a given time,
Chennai, Nagpur, Mumbai, Delhi and temporal variations at a given place and year
Kolkata. The regional centres also prepare to year variations for a given place and time.
forecast of weather known as weather For cropping purposes weather over short
bulletins indicating the probable date to onset time periods and year-to-year fluctuations at a
of monsoon, intensity, duration, breaks in place over the selected interval have to be
rainfall and other adverse weather considered. For any given time-unit the
phenomenon. The bulletins are broadcasted in percentage departures of extreme values from
the regional languages through radio and a mean or median value, called the coefficient
television along with rural programmes. of variability, is a measure of variability of
the parameter The shorter the time-unit, the
Need for and requirements of weather greater is the degree of variability of a
forecasts for agriculture weather parameter.
579
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
Agricultural applications of short range Livestock protection from cold and heat.
weather forecasting
Extended range weather forecasting
Timing of field operations.
Soil workability. Extended range weather forecasts are for
Drying rate of soil. periods of 10 to 30 days. Forecast is usually
Irrigation scheduling. restricted to Temperature and precipitation.
Spray applications.
581
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
Long range weather forecasting Such synoptic charts form the very basis of
weather forecasts.
The long range weather forecasts are issued
thrice in year. Validity period of long range As stated earlier, the task of preparing
weather forecast is 10 to 30 days. The long synoptic charts on a regular basis involves
range forecasts are useful for choosing huge collection and analysis of observational
cropping patterns. data obtained from thousands of weather
stations. From the careful study of weather
Agricultural Applications of long range charts over many years, certain empirical
weather forecasting rules were formulated. These rules helped the
forecaster in estimating the rate and direction
Crop Planning – Marginal crops Vs Normal of the movement of weather systems.
Crops
Synoptic methods involved detailed analysis
Choose crop varieties to suit the expected of current weather reports from a large area.
weather The current weather patterns are related with
the past analogous situations and forecasts are
Determine expected crop yield prepared on the assumption that a current
weather situation will behave on the lines of
Plan area to be cultivated to get the required the past analogous situations.
crop produce
Often selection of the past analogous
Methods of weather forecasting situations is based on the experience and
memory of the forecast, but with the advent of
The nature of modern weather forecasting is computers, picking analogues has become
not only highly complex but also highly faster and more objective. This method is
quantitative. The various methods used in useful for short range forecasts.
forecasting the weather are as follows:
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Synoptic weather forecasting,
Numerical methods, and Uses the power of computers to make a
Statistical methods. forecast. Complex computer programs, also
known as forecast models, run on
Synoptic weather forecasting supercomputers and provide predictions on
many atmospheric variables such as
The first method is the traditional approach in temperature, pressure, wind, and rainfall. A
weather prediction. This primary method forecaster examines how the features
continued to be in use until the late 1950s. predicted by the computer will interact to
Synoptic" means that the observation of produce the day's weather.
different weather elements refers to a specific
time of observation. Thus, a weather map that The NWP method is flawed in that the
depicts atmospheric conditions at a given time equations used by the models to simulate the
is a synoptic chart to a meteorologist. In order atmosphere are not precise. If the initial state
to have an average view of the changing is not completely known, the computer's
pattern of weather, a meteorological centre prediction of how that initial state will evolve
prepares a series of synoptic charts every day. will not be entirely accurate.
582
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
583
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
No Rain 0.0
Exceptionally Heavy Rain When the amount is a value near about the highest
recorded rainfall at or near the station for the month
or season. However, this term will be used only
when the actual rainfall amount exceeds 12 cm.
Normal Rainfall - 19 % to + 19 %
Deficient Rainfall – 20 % to - 59 %
Scanty Rainfall – 60 % to - 99 %
No rain – 100 %
584
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
Fig.2 Disseminating
Operational weather information
communication tothrough different (farmers)
end-users agencies
Farmer KVK
Television
585
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
Fig.3 District wise correct and usable rainfall forecast (%) in different districts of Telangana
during kharif, 2015
586
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing Visible spectrum around the sun and the
System (AWIPS) moon
The Advanced Weather Interactive People predicted weather after observing the
Processing System (AWIPS) computer visible spectrum around the sun or moon. If
workstation provides various weather maps the spectrum around the sun had a greater
and overlaps on different screens. AWIPS diameter than that around the moon, they
works in four steps which are given below: predicted rainfall after a day or two.
587
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
It is believed that on a hot summer day the cry If there is a swelling on the lower portion of
of the bird called “Nialu” for water brings the camel's legs then rainfall is predicted by
rainfall the farmers. The swellings are probably
caused due to higher relative humidity.
During the rainy season farmers observe the
"Matilari" bird (House swift) and they predict If the "Tillbohara" (Dragon fly), which
heavy rainfall if the bird flies high in the sky appears generally in the rainy season, are
observed to swarm in a large group over a
If the “Maina” bird bathes in the water it water surface (Pond) then dry weather is
indicates that there will be rainfall within one predicted but if they swarm over open dry
or two days lands or fields then early rainfall is predicted
by the farmers.
During long hot days in summer if the cry of
theapiha bird is heard then people believe that If the colour of the clouds is similar to the
God will quench her thirst and there will be colour of the wings of the Titar bird
rainfall after one or two days. (Partridge) i.e. grey or black-grey and strong
eastern winds are also blowing then assured
A group of sparrows frolicking in the sand rainfall is predicted by the farmers.
indicates that there will be rainfall that day or
the next day and if they are observed to be The clouds of a colour similar to that of the
playing in water then it is believed that the said bird are rain bearing clouds i.e. of
weather will be dry for some days to come. cumulonimbus type.
If the "Jonks" (Leechs) are If centipedes emerge from their holes carrying
immobile/stationary at the water surface their eggs in swarms in order to shift them to
(Pond) then dry weather is predicted but if safer places (within the house) then farmers
they move rapidly in the upward and predict early rainfall The centipedes do this so
downward direction in water then rainfall is as to avoid egg damage which can be caused
predicted. by rain water.
If the "Tatihari" bird (Lapwing) lays her eggs When spider nets are plentiful on grasses,
on the higher portion of the field then heavy sticks of tomato crop and on trench bean crop
rainfall is predicted during the coming rainy then it is estimated that the rainy season is
season but if the eggs are laid in the lower over.
portion of the field then a drought is
predicted. These birds never construct a nest Social and cultural beliefs
but lay their eggs on bare soil.
Many cultural, social and religious beliefs and
Further it is also believed that if a single egg activities superstitious pertaining to the
is laid, then there will be rainfall only for one prediction of future weather prevail since
month out of four months of the rainy season. generations. From time immemorial farmers
have predicted the weather on the basis of
If two eggs are laid then rainfall will occur for these beliefs/activities.
two months and similarly four eggs indicate
there will be rainfall during all the four The following are some examples from the
months of the rainy season. western Himalayan region.
588
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
If the first 10-15 of the month "Jeth" (May- When days are very hot and there is dew at
June) are very hot then good rainfall/monsoon night, then according to Gag, there are very
is predicted during the ensuing rainy season. limited chances of rainfall.
This results probably from the low pressure
zone in north-west India that is generated due When cloudy days are accompanied by clear
to the high temperatures. nights and the eastern winds blow somewhat
strongly, then according to Gag no rainfall is
The Soolini Mela (Festival) is organised in predicted. Thus there is accompanied by a
Solan, during the month of June every year. shortage of water in ponds, rivers etc.
People of this area firmly believe that rainfall Consequently clothes are washed using water
will occur on the very day of the festival or from wells.
one day before or day after the festival
When a rainbow is formed in the direction of
It is also believed, that when grey coloured Bengal then there will be rainfall, if not by the
clouds descend below the hill tops then they evening then definitely by next morning.
definitely cause rainfall.
During the rainy season, if a cloud appears on
If the "Khejri" tree bears good fruit in a Friday and Saturday then rainfall is predicted
particular year then farmers predict good either for Sunday or Monday.
rainfall during the next rainy season and vice
versa less rain is predicted in the event of a National agromet advisory bulletin
poor fruit crop.
In order to provide direct services to the
If the Chakkala-Belan, (rolling pin and farming community of the country an
board), used in the Kitchen, show moisture on exclusive Division of Agricultural
them then within few days rainfall is Meteorology was set up in 1932 under the
expected. umbrella of Dissemination of Agromet
Advisory in India.
In villages elderly farmers usually carry a
small bag for "Tambaku" (Tobacco) for Under the project, advisories are primarily
Hukka (Smoking device). When this bag disseminated to farmers by mass mode,
shows more moisture in the Tambakku then outreach at village level and human face for
farmers predict rainfall within one or two advisory dissemination. Advisories are being
days. disseminated to farmers through following the
multi-channel system: All India Radio (AIR)
Some folk-lore regarding weather and doordarshan, private TV and radio
forecasting channels, Mobile phones/SMS, newspapers,
internet, virtual academy/virtual
The folk-lore of the popular poet Gag and his universities/NGOs, Kisan Call Centres/ICAR
wife Bhahdari, who lived during the 17th and other related Institutes/Agricultural
century, regarding weather forecasting are Universities/Extension network of
still very popular in northern India. Some are state/central Agriculture Departments, Krishi
given as under: Vigyan Kendras.
When strong eastern winds blow continuously Now-casting have very high accuracy and
then it is estimated that the rainy season has medium range weather forecasting have very
come. high potential usefulness than the others.
589
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2017) 6(11): 577-590
Vijay Kumar Didal, Brijbhooshan, Anita Todawat and Kamlesh Choudhary. 2017. Weather
Forecasting in India: A Review. Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 6(11): 577-590.
doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.611.070
590