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VOLUME
7
DISEASE CONTROL PRIORITIES • THIRD EDITION
Dean T. Jamison
Rachel Nugent
Hellen Gelband
Susan Horton
Prabhat Jha
Ramanan Laxminarayan
Charles N. Mock
VOLUME
7
DISEASE CONTROL PRIORITIES • THIRD EDITION
EDITORS
Charles N. Mock
Rachel Nugent
Olive Kobusingye
Kirk R. Smith
© 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Mock, C. N., R. Nugent, O. Kobusingye, and K. R. Smith, editors. 2017. Injury
Prevention and Environmental Health. Disease Control Priorities (third edition), Volume 7. Washington, DC: World Bank.
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Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Abbreviations xv
ix
6. Occupation and Risk for Injuries 97
Safa Abdalla, Spenser S. Apramian, Linda F. Cantley, and Mark R. Cullen
7. Household Air Pollution from Solid Cookfuels and Its Effects on Health 133
Kirk R. Smith and Ajay Pillarisetti
10. Interventions to Prevent Injuries and Reduce Environmental and Occupational Hazards: A Review
of Economic Evaluations from Low- and Middle-Income Countries 199
David A. Watkins, Nazila Dabestani, Rachel Nugent, and Carol Levin
11. Helmet Regulation in Vietnam: Impact on Health, Equity, and Medical Impoverishment 213
Zachary Olson, John A. Staples, Charles N. Mock, Nam Phuong Nguyen, Abdulgafoor M. Bachani, Rachel Nugent,
and Stéphane Verguet
12. Household Energy Interventions and Health and Finances in Haryana, India: An Extended
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 223
Ajay Pillarisetti, Dean T. Jamison, and Kirk R. Smith
x Contents
Foreword
The world continues to suffer from an enormous burden health measures is disappointingly low. Countries, partic-
of morbidity, disability, and premature mortality from ularly LMICs, need to do more. Policy makers should
injuries and environmental health conditions. Much of seriously consider the recommendations of this volume
this burden is unnecessary and can be prevented by when they develop their own essential package of inter-
evidence-based, high-impact interventions that can be ventions, which is one of the three key pathways to achieve
implemented in all countries, irrespective of income. universal health coverage. International organizations and
Injuries are leading causes of death, responsible for development agencies should increase their support to
an estimated 5 million deaths and around 9 percent low-income countries to make this possible.
of global mortality. Most of the deaths are in low- This volume focuses on another key challenge to public
and middle-income countries (LMICs). More than health across the globe. Environmental causes lead to
1.2 million people die too young each year because of more than 8 million deaths per year; outdoor and indoor
road traffic injuries. According to the World Health air pollution accounts for more than 5 million of these
Organization’s (WHO) Global Status Report 2015, death deaths per year. Climate change, which results from unsus-
rates in low-income countries are more than double tainable policies in many sectors, exacerbates air pollution
those in high-income countries. The African region has threats and causes additional morbidity and mortality.
the highest death rates. Unsafe sanitation and lack of safe water and hygiene cause
The current situation presents a major challenge to an estimated 1.4 million deaths, almost all in LMICs.
socioeconomic development and has rightly been the Although the enormous burden and serious health
focus of attention globally and within all countries. In challenges caused by environmental risk factors are
2010, a decade for action on road safety was established evident, surveillance and systematic monitoring of
by the United Nations General Assembly; more recently, the magnitude of the risks and their health impacts
in 2015, as part of the Sustainable Development Goals, are severely limited in many countries. The data gaps
countries of the world made an ambitious commitment are particularly serious for air quality and air pollution
to halving the number of global deaths and injuries due levels. Increasing awareness among high-level govern-
to road traffic crashes by 2020. ment officials and policy makers on the seriousness of
There is, therefore, a pressing need for action. This environmental risks and the pressing need to take effec-
volume of Disease Control Priorities, third edition pro- tive multisectoral action should be a key priority for all
vides an excellent evidence-based guide to policy makers countries. This volume makes a strong case for advocacy
on the approaches and rational choice of interventions to and for strengthening commitment, and it provides clear
address this challenge. Many of the interventions included policy advice on strategic directions to consider.
in the volume are among the most cost-effective interven- Despite the fact that there are limited economic anal-
tions in public health and can make a substantial impact ysis studies on some environmental health conditions,
on reducing the health and socioeconomic burden due to there is clear evidence for a range of interventions recom-
injuries, particularly in LMICs. Yet, current progress is too mended in the volume that are cost-effective or supported
slow. As highlighted in this volume and documented in by favorable cost-benefit ratios. Implementing them will
the Global Status Report, implementation of the key public have a considerable impact on reducing environmental
xi
health risks and preventing a broad range of com- Finally, making a difference in addressing injuries and
mon communicable and noncommunicable conditions environmental health risks will require solid commit-
responsible for a major proportion of global disease bur- ments from all parts of governments, particularly sectors
den and premature mortality. In addition to their desir- such as transport, energy, industry, agriculture, housing,
able health effects, many of these interventions will also and waste management. The health sector will have to
have important non-health outcomes that may be part of demonstrate leadership in evidence-based advocacy,
the priorities of the non-health sectors involved. governance, technical support, and surveillance. The
An important challenge to health and development need to act is highlighted by a range of goals and targets
is climate change. Although the importance of climate included in the sustainable development agenda.
change challenges is increasingly recognized, and tack- Countries that initiate effective action now will benefit
ling them is becoming a global priority, addressing the from improved health and realize considerable health
health consequences is not receiving adequate attention. care savings.
Policy makers at the highest levels of government and
in different sectors need to be made fully aware of the Ala Alwan, MD, FRCP, FFPH
seriousness of the health dimensions and the effective Regional Director Emeritus,
approaches to mitigate them. WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region
xii Foreword
Preface
The fields of injury prevention and environmental This volume looks at several types of policy approaches
health address diverse health problems that arise from to reduce the burden of ill health from environmental and
exposure to outside forces, such as chemicals and other occupational risks and injuries. Unlike the other DCP3
toxins, infectious agents, kinetic energy, and thermal volumes, most of the actions proposed in this volume
energy. The health problems addressed by these fields speak directly to non-health sectors, where a substantial
include the following: portion of disease and injury prevention policies and
programs needs to occur. These actions include fiscal and
• Unintentional injuries, such as road traffic accidents, intersectoral policies, such as taxes and subsidies; regu-
falls, burns, and drowning lations; and policies that affect infrastructure, the built
• Intentional injuries, such as interpersonal violence environment, and product design. Also included are infor-
• Diseases, such as those caused or aggravated by expo- mation, education, and communication initiatives to pro-
sure to airborne and waterborne pollutants mote behavioral changes; these initiatives leverage a range
• Occupational hazards, such as injuries and diseases of vehicles, from mass media campaigns to one-on-one
caused or aggravated by workplace toxins, counseling. A second major difference from other DCP3
• Effects of climate change due to human greenhouse volumes is that the economic evidence supporting the
emissions, such as enhancement of waterborne infec- actions described in this volume is primarily benefit-cost
tious diseases. analyses—the benefits and costs may occur outside of the
health sector and must be accounted for in common mon-
The conditions and risks encompassed in these fields etized units. We include two extended cost-effectiveness
account for more than 12 million deaths per year— analyses (ECEAs) that indicate policies that provide strong
21 percent—of the annual global total of 56 million deaths. financial risk protection for individuals and households.
Most of these conditions and risks have not been Most of the policies and interventions discussed
effectively addressed globally; in recent years, however, in this volume have not been fully implemented in
some have received increased attention. This Injury high-income countries (HICs); their implementation in
Prevention and Environmental Health volume of Disease low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is substan-
Control Priorities, third edition (DCP3), contributes to tially more incomplete. More complete implementation
the understanding of how to address these health prob- would help to reduce the disproportionately high rates
lems in the following ways: of death and disability from these conditions in LMICs.
Doing so could avert over seven million premature
• Elucidating the health burden of these conditions deaths annually from environmental and occupational
• Documenting trends in the health burden at different exposures and injuries in LMICs.
phases of national development The goal of the editors and authors of Injury
• Identifying the most cost-effective and cost-beneficial Prevention and Environmental Health is to provide the
interventions requisite evidence-based rationale and guidance to
• Describing policies and platforms that can widely and increase implementation of effective strategies to prevent
effectively deliver these interventions. injuries and lower environmental risks in countries at all
xiii
economic levels. We hope to stimulate increased imple- We thank the following individuals who provided
mentation of proven effective strategies that have not yet valuable comments and assistance to this effort: Elizabeth
been applied widely, let alone universally. We also seek Brouwer, Kristen Danforth, Mary Fisk, Rumit Pancholi,
to focus attention on the need to identify new strategies Jinyuan Qi, Shamelle Richards, and Carlos Rossel. The
that would be particularly effective in LMICs. Finally, we authors also thank the reviewers organized by the
wish to highlight the potentially substantial health haz- National Academy of Medicine and the InterAcademy
ards of climate change. This particular environmental Medical Panel listed separately in this volume. We
issue will likely become increasingly preeminent in the especially thank Brianne Adderley for her hard work in
21st century. The resultant health problems, including keeping this large endeavor well organized.
food and water insecurity, may rival those of other major
risk factors. The toll could be especially tragic among the Charles N. Mock
world’s poorest people. Enhancing the understanding of Rachel Nugent
climate change and identifying effective interventions are Olive Kobusingye
likely to become major challenges in the next generation. Kirk R. Smith
xiv Preface
Abbreviations
xv
GPOBA Global Program for Output-Based-Aid
GRP gross regional product
GW gigawatt
HAP household air pollution
HAPIT Household Air Pollution Intervention Tool
HICs high-income countries
HLY healthy life-year
HRTWS Human Right to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation
HWTS household water treatment and storage
IAQG Indoor Air Quality Guidelines
ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio
IER integrated-exposure response
IHD ischemic heart disease
IHDS Indian Human Development Survey
IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
IMAGE Intervention with Microfinance for AIDS and Gender Equity
IOM Institute of Medicine
IPV intimate partner violence
ISBI International Society for Burn Injuries
JMP Joint Monitoring Programme
kWh kilowatt-hour
LC lung cancer
LICs low-income countries
LMICs low- and middle-income countries
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
mg/m3 milligrams per cubic meter
MHM menstrual hygiene management
MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
MICs middle-income countries
MW megawatt
NCAP New Car Assessment Program
NCDs noncommunicable diseases
NGO nongovernmental organization
NISP National Improved Stove Program
NOx oxides of nitrogen
OBA output-based aid
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OOP out of pocket
OR odds ratio
OSH occupational safety and health
PFD personal flotation device
PIC products of incomplete combustion
PM particulate matter
PPPHW Global Public-Private Partnerships for Handwashing
PRB Powder River Basin
QALY quality-adjusted life year
xvi Abbreviations
RCT randomized controlled trial
RHS Reproductive Health Survey
RTI road traffic injury
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission
SFU solid fuel use
SLTS School-Led Total Sanitation
SO2 sulfur dioxide
SPA Service Provision Assessment
STHs soil-transmitted helminths
STIs sexually transmitted infections
SV Smokeless Village
swFGD seawater flue-gas desulfurization
TSSM Total Sanitation and Sanitation Marketing
UMICs upper-middle-income countries
UN United Nations
UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund
UNRSC United Nations Road Safety Collaboration
VSL value per statistical life
WASH water, sanitation, and hygiene
WASH-BAT Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene-Bottleneck Analysis Tool
wFGD wet limestone flue-gas desulfurization
WHO World Health Organization
WTP willingness to pay
YLDs years lived with disability
YLLs years of life lost
Abbreviations xvii
Chapter
1
Injury Prevention and Environmental
Health: Key Messages from Disease
Control Priorities, Third Edition
Charles N. Mock, Kirk R. Smith, Olive Kobusingye, Rachel Nugent, Safa Abdalla,
Rajeev B. Ahuja, Spenser S. Apramian, Abdulgafoor M. Bachani, Mark A. Bellis,
Alexander Butchart, Linda Cantley, Claire Chase, Mark Cullen, Nazila Dabestani,
Kristie L. Ebi, Xiagming Fang, G. Gururaj, Sarath Guttikunda, Jeremy J. Hess,
Connie Hoe, Guy Hutton, Adnan A. Hyder, Rebecca Ivers, Dean T. Jamison,
Puja Jawahar, Lisa Keay, Carol Levin, Jiawen Liao, David Mackie,
Kabir Malik, David Meddings, Nam Phuong Nguyen, Robyn Norton,
Zachary Olson, Ian Partridge, Margie Peden, Ajay Pillarisetti,
Fazlur Rahman, Mark L. Rosenberg, John A. Staples, Stéphane Verguet,
Catherine L. Ward, and David A. Watkins
VOLUME SUMMARY
water, sanitation, and hygiene (1.4 million); and air
Injury Prevention and Environmental Health identifies pollution (5.5 million). The vast majority of these
essential prevention strategies and related policies that deaths are in low- and middle-income countries.
address substantial population health needs, are cost- • Risk factors for deaths from these diseases vary with
effective, and are feasible to implement. This chapter stages of national development in ways that can be
summarizes and critically assesses the volume’s four key understood and used in designing prevention strategies.
findings. • A range of interventions could effectively address
these problems; many of these interventions are
• There is a large burden of death and disability among the most cost-effective and cost-beneficial of
from injuries and environmental health conditions. all interventions used to prevent disease.
Worldwide, injuries result in more than 5 million • This chapter synthesizes the volume’s prevention
premature deaths per year out of a global total of strategies to identify an effective essential package of
56 million deaths (based on widely used estimates). interventions and policies, most of which have been
There are also large numbers of deaths attributable inadequately applied on a global scale. Better imple-
to risk factors related to noninjury occupational mentation of these interventions and policies would
exposures (560,000); inadequate access to clean help bring down the high rates of death and disability
Corresponding author: Charles N. Mock, Departments of Surgery and Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States; cmock@uw.edu.
1
from injury and environmental and occupational risks prevent these conditions. Treatment for health condi-
in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) toward tions resulting from injury and environmental risk
the lower rates in high-income countries. Doing so factors is covered in other volumes of the third edition
could avert more than 7 million deaths annually of Disease Control Priorities (DCP3), as are immuniza-
from environmental and occupational exposures and tions and prevention of suicide (Black, Laxminarayan,
injuries. and others 2016; Black, Levin, and others 2016; Bundy
and others 2017; Debas and others 2015; Mock and
others 2015; Patel and others 2015; Patel and others
INTRODUCTION 2016; Prabhakaran and others 2017).
Injury Prevention and Environmental Health identifies In this review, we identify several key messages.
essential prevention strategies and related policies that First, there is a large health burden from injury, occu-
address substantial population health needs and pational risk factors, air pollution, unclean water, and
that are cost-effective and feasible to implement. This poor sanitation. These conditions are major global
volume addresses diverse conditions that arise from health problems to which inadequate attention has
exposure to outside forces, such as chemicals and been directed. Second, these disorders and the risk
toxins, kinetic energy, or thermal energy. These condi- factors that cause them have predictable patterns
tions require similar policy approaches to reducing risk across stages of national development. Understanding
and mandate involvement of multiple sectors. Included these patterns can assist with the planning of preven-
in this group of conditions are injuries attribut- tion efforts. Third, cost-effective and cost-beneficial
able to unintentional mechanisms (road traffic crashes, interventions that can address these conditions already
falls, burns, and drowning); injuries attributable to exist and are in established use in most high-income
intentional mechanisms (interpersonal violence); dis- countries (HICs). In most low- and middle-income
orders caused by or aggravated by exposure to airborne countries (LMICs), these interventions have been
toxins (air pollution); occupational issues (injuries implemented only to a modest extent or not at all. On
and disorders caused by or aggravated by toxins in the basis of these interventions’ cost-effectiveness and
the workplace); and waterborne infectious diseases. their potential to lower the disease burden, we pro-
This volume focuses exclusively on interventions to pose a package of policy interventions (box 1.1).
Box 1.1
health improvements they can generate in given volume—and their related delivery platforms. This
epidemiological environments—can help guide information is intended to assist decision makers in
health system investments and development. allocating often tightly constrained budgets and in
achieving health system objectives.
DCP3 introduces the notion of packages of interven-
tions. Whereas platforms contain logistically related Four of DCP3’s nine volumes were published in 2015
sets of interventions, packages contain conceptually and 2016, and the remaining five will appear in 2017
related ones. The 21 packages developed in the nine and 2018. The volumes appear in an environment in
volumes of DCP3 include those for surgery and car- which serious discussion continues about quantifying
diovascular disease, for example. In addition, DCP3 and achieving the Sustainable Development Goal
explicitly considers health systems’ objective of (SDG) for health (United Nations 2015). DCP3’s anal-
financial risk protection. In populations lacking yses are well placed to assist in choosing the means
access to health insurance or prepaid care, medical with which to attain the health SDG and assessing the
expenses that are high relative to income can be related costs. These volumes, and the analytic efforts
impoverishing. Where incomes are low, seemingly on which they are based, will enable researchers to
inexpensive medical procedures can have cata- explore SDG-related and other broad policy conclu-
strophic financial effects. DCP3 considers financial sions and generalizations. The final volume will report
protection and the distribution across income groups those conclusions. Each individual volume provides
as outcomes resulting from policies (for example, specific policy analyses on the full range of interven-
public finance) to increase intervention uptake and tions, packages, and policies relevant to its health topic.
improve delivery quality. All of the volumes seek to
combine the available science about interventions Dean T. Jamison
implemented in specific locales and conditions with Rachel Nugent
informed judgment to reach reasonable conclusions Hellen Gelband
about the impact of intervention mixes in diverse Susan Horton
environments. DCP3’s broad aim is to delineate Prabhat Jha
essential intervention packages—such as those for Ramanan Laxminarayan
injury prevention and environmental health in this Charles N. Mock
KEY MESSAGES The vast majority (85 percent) of these deaths were in
LMICs. The annual incidence of mortality from injury is
Disease Burden Addressable by Injury Prevention and considerably higher in LMICs (76 per 100,000) com-
Environmental Health pared with HICs (58 per 100,000) (WHO 2016). In most
The different topics examined take advantage of one or LMICs, half or more of road traffic crash deaths happen
more widely used data sources, such as the World Health to vulnerable road users, such as motorcyclists, bicyclists,
Organization (WHO) Global Health Estimates or the and especially pedestrians. Injuries to vehicle occupants
Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. predominate in most HICs. Other leading causes of
Other global datasets may show slightly different unintentional injury are falls, drowning, and burns. The
relationships, but the patterns would be similar.1 leading cause of intentional injury deaths is suicide.
Homicide is the next leading cause, followed at a distant
Injury third by deaths directly due to war and other forms of
Injuries include those arising from unintentional causes collective violence (Watkins, Dabestani, Mock, and
(such as road traffic crashes, falls, and burns) and inten- others 2017; WHO 2016). Interpersonal violence is also
tional causes (such as suicide and violence). In 2012, an important yet under-recognized risk factor for
injuries altogether caused more than 5 million premature high-risk behaviors, such as unsafe sex, smoking, and
deaths globally (table 1.1).2 substance abuse, and, through these behaviors, for some
Injury Prevention and Environmental Health: Key Messages from Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition 3
Table 1.1 Injuries: Deaths by Cause, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2012
Low- and Middle-Income Countries 2012 High-Income Countries 2012
Total deaths (thousands) Percent of all deaths Total deaths (thousands) Percent of all deaths
All causes 44,200 100 11,700 100
Injuries (unintentional and intentional) 4,400 10 750 6
Unintentional injuries 3,220 7 510 4
Road traffic injuries 1,140 3 120 1
Other unintentional injuries 750 2 180 2
Falls 580 1 120 1
Drowning 340 1 40 0
Fire, heat, and hot substances 250 1 20 0
Poisoning 160 0 30 0
Exposure to forces of nature 2 0 0 0
Intentional injuries 1,190 3 240 2
Self-harm 610 1 200 2
Interpersonal violence 460 1 40 0
Collective violence and legal intervention 120 0 0 0
Source: WHO Global Health Estimates 2012 (WHO 2016).
Note: Not all totals are exact due to rounding.
communicable and noncommunicable diseases, as well many countries. Part of the problem is lack of reporting
as for mental health conditions, including anxiety disor- on occupational issues, which is aggravated by the
ders, depression, and suicidal ideation. fact that most people in LMICs work in the informal
sector, for which accurate, or sometimes any, statistics
Occupational Risks are not kept. Occupational health problems encompass
Occupational and environmental (water and air) risks lead some that are long-standing, such as agricultural inju-
to a substantial health burden. In the usual estimates of ries. Others arise or are aggravated by changes in manu-
global disease burden, this burden is reflected in disease- facturing and supply chain practices globally as more
specific estimates; for example, unsafe water leads to deaths dangerous jobs are transferred to LMICs, especially to
from diarrhea, which are reported in the main global dis- locations with limited environmental and safety safe-
ease burden estimates (Watkins, Dabestani, Mock, and guards, and are performed by people with lower levels of
others 2017; WHO 2016). Additional analyses discussed training and who usually have limited or no access to
later show the burden from the risk factors themselves. protective equipment (Watkins, Dabestani, Mock, and
Occupationally related deaths and disabilities include others 2017).
on-the-job injuries and exposure to chemicals (such as
pesticides, solvents, and heavy metals); heat; and noise; Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene
among other risk factors. An estimated 720,000 deaths Inadequate access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene
occur annually from occupational exposures globally, 79 (WASH) was estimated to result in about 1.4 million
percent of which are in LMICs. The largest contributors to deaths globally in 2013, virtually all (more than
this burden are injuries and exposure to particulate matter, 99 percent) in LMICs (table 1.3). WASH-related deaths
gases, and fumes (which contribute to respiratory and car- account for a large proportion of diarrheal disease and
diovascular disease and cancers) (table 1.2). Occupational intestinal infectious diseases, almost all among children.
ergonomic factors and exposure to noise do not cause The major attributal factors are unsafe water sources
mortality, but they contribute significantly to disability. (1,240,000 deaths globally), unsafe sanitation (820,000
Notwithstanding the global estimates in table 1.2, deaths), and lack of hygiene (especially availability of
estimates and sources of overall burden of occupa- handwashing with soap: 520,000 deaths), with an uncer-
tional deaths and disabilities are not well known for tain degree of overlap in attributable deaths among
Table 1.3 Environmental Risks: Attributable Deaths by Cause, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2013
Deaths (Thousands)
Low- and middle-income countries 2013 High-income countries 2013
Total attributable deaths 23,800 7,000
Total environmental and occupational risks 7,420 760
Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing 1,390 10
No handwashing with soap 510 10
Unsafe sanitation 820 0
Unsafe water source 1,240 10
Air pollution 4,990 540
Ambient ozone pollution 180 40
Ambient particulate matter pollution 2,430 500
Household air pollution from solid fuels 2,880 10
Source: Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study (IHME 2016).
Note: Each of the major environmental hazards is listed as a subcategory of the bolded categories. Data from GBD 2013 were used because similar data were unavailable from the
WHO Global Health Estimates. There is an unknown degree of overlap between the impacts across the air pollution and unsafe water categories, which is not addressed here.
these causes. Water and sanitation were the topics of 2013 (Watkins, Dabestani, Mock, and others 2017).
Millennium Development Goal 7 and have received con- Despite these improvements, inadequate access to WASH
siderable attention over the past several decades. As a remains a major health problem, accounting for approx-
result, there have been significant advances in access to imately 43 percent of under-five mortality in South and
clean water and improved sanitation, with related South-East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (Humphrey
decreases in burden. In addition, better nutrition and 2009; Petri and Miller 2008).
rehydration therapy have reduced case fatality substan-
tially. The total number of deaths estimated as attribut- Air Pollution
able to inadequate WASH has declined by 49 percent, Exposure to airborne pollutants in ambient and house-
from 2.7 million deaths in 1990 to 1.4 million deaths in hold settings was estimated to result in more than
Injury Prevention and Environmental Health: Key Messages from Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition 5
5 million deaths globally in 2013 (table 1.3). In disease This portrayal gives the false impression, however, that
burden estimates, air pollution contributes a significant the impact of noncommunicable disease increases with
proportion of deaths attributable to respiratory infec- development, which is not the case at large scale. For
tions; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; cere- comparisons of the health status of populations, the
brovascular disease; ischemic heart disease; and cancers correct calculation is the age-standardized version.
of the trachea, bronchus, and lung. The forms of air The age-standardized version is the true epidemiological
pollution evaluated were ambient particulate matter transition, which takes account of the younger age struc-
pollution (approximately 2.9 million deaths globally) ture in poor countries, as shown in figure 1.2 (Smith and
and household air pollution from solid fuels (approxi- Ezzati 2005). Age-standardized data provide a more accu-
mately 2.9 million deaths globally) in the form of rate illustration of the comparative health of someone
particle and ozone pollution, although there are other going through the life course in each region, what most
categories that have not yet been assessed globally. people consider the important comparison of health sta-
Overall, 90 percent of air pollution deaths are in tus across populations. In contrast to what is shown in the
LMICs. However, because use of solid cooking fuels mortality transition (figure 1.1), in figure 1.2 all general
in households is confined almost entirely to LMICs, disease categories—communicable (category I), non-
essentially all impacts occur there. Ambient particulate communicable (category II), and injuries
matter air pollution occurs in rural and urban areas (category III)—actually decline across income groups
and is related to a variety of emissions sources, includ- after age standardization, substantially so in categories
ing motorized transport, power plants, industry, road I and III (communicable and injuries), but definitively for
and construction dust, brick kilns, and garbage burning. noncommunicable as well. Thus, as is uncomfortably true
Household air pollution occurs primarily in less for many of life’s conditions, it is generally better to live in
urbanized areas and is related to use of solid fuels for a richer rather than a poorer society.
cooking and heating. It also is a major source of ambi- Many factors other than income affect health, and
ent pollution, causing at least a quarter of ambient many of these are amenable to policy. Policy, in turn, is
pollution exposures in India and China, for example affected by factors other than income, although income
(Chafe and others 2014; Lelieveld and others 2015). remains one primary determinant. All analyses in this
Thus, perhaps 16 to 31 percent of the burden attributed section use age-standardized deaths per capita to nor-
to ambient pollution actually started in households, malize across the four World Bank income regions and
although this burden is not yet well characterized. aggregate large categories of disease and risk that tend to
Ambient air pollution is estimated to account for obfuscate individual differences. It should be noted that
a larger proportion of cardiovascular and cerebrovas- higher resolution by more subregions, specific diseases,
cular diseases, while household air pollution accounts or even by country might show subtleties not revealed
for a larger proportion of chronic and acute respiratory by comparison across only four income regions.
disease, the latter affecting children (Watkins, Dabestani, Mortality trends are not reflective of the entire picture of
Mock, and others 2017). health because nonfatal injury and illness also affect
Taken together, the conditions and risks covered in health status. The aggregated patterns shown in this sec-
this review comprise more than 12 million deaths per tion, however, show similar trends when disability-
year, not accounting for possible overlaps among adjusted life years (DALYs) are used.
different categories of attributable causes. Climate As shown in figure 1.3, the overall health impacts
change contributes a small portion of the current from environmental and occupational exposures and
burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes but, from injuries tend to decline across country income
given its trajectory, will become increasingly impor- groups after age standardization. Examined in more
tant in future decades. detail, however, the trends for environmental risks can
be divided into three categories in what has been termed
the environmental risk transition (Smith 1990).
Environmental and Injury Risk Transitions
All comparisons in this section rely on the widely used Traditional Environmental Health Risks
GBD 2015 dataset—other global datasets may show Traditional environmental health risks (poor food, air,
slightly different absolute levels and relationships, but water, and sanitation at the household level) tend
the patterns will be similar.3,4 A classic portrayal of mor- to decline with economic development, but they do so at
tality trends during the national development process is varying rates depending on policy and the degree of
the “mortality transition” that documents shifts over income and education equity in societies. This link to
time in causes of death (figure 1.1) (Omran 1971). income is observed in figure 1.4, which shows the
400
Deaths per 100,000 population
300
400
200
200
100
0 0
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
income income income income
75
Deaths per 100,000 population
50
25
0
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
income income
burden from household air pollution and from poor reach and the point at which they turn downward are
water, sanitation, and hygiene steadily declining across strongly determined by preventive policy. Figure 1.5
income groups. Although much diminished in rich illustrates how the burdens from ambient particle pollu-
countries, these risks still dominate global environmen- tion, environmental tobacco smoke, and ambient ozone
tal health burdens today. air pollution rise and then fall with development.
Injury Prevention and Environmental Health: Key Messages from Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition 7
Figure 1.2 Age-Standardized Trends in Mortality Risk for Category I, II, and III Diseases by Income, 2015
750
Deaths per 100,000 population
500
200
250
0 0
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
income income income income
100
Deaths per 100,000 population
75
50
25
0
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
income income
ozone–depleting pollutants under the Montreal Protocol, In summary, as shown in figure 1.7, all environmental
which is one of the major examples of successful inter- risk factors taken together declined over the develop-
national policy. Such global hazards do not dominate ment spectrum because of the strong decline in tradi-
current environmental health burdens, but as these tional risks. In general, traditional risks are faced mostly
threats continue to rise, they may dominate health bur- at the household level in lower-income countries, where
dens later in the century unless strong actions are imple- required behavioral changes and low access to resources
mented. The trends for risks from greenhouse gas are barriers to interventions. Modern risks are com-
emissions are illustrated in figure 1.6 for the two most monly seen at the community level because they derive
important gases, carbon dioxide and methane (Smith, from larger-scale social organization, including industri-
Desai, and others 2013). alization and urban design. Global risks arise at larger
300
Transition frameworks are common in development
discussion (for example, demographic, nutrition, and
inequality transitions) but should primarily be consid-
200
ered tools for parsing observed patterns rather than
generating normative predictions of what will happen.
100
They provide a structure for categorizing changes that
occur during development and for designing policies
that avoid the worst trends and enhance the best ones.
They are not destiny but analytic tools.
0
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
It is important to be aware that the relationships in
income income this chapter are cross-sectional and thus cannot take
into account the different world situation in place when
Note: This figure is based on summed impacts from estimates of the impacts of currently developed regions were developing as com-
separate risk factors. It thus includes contributions from communicable diseases
(category I), noncommunicable diseases (category II), and injuries (category III). This pared with poor countries today. Nevertheless, they
figure contains no contribution from global risks, but as shown in the vertical axis of provide instructive ways to understand and organize
figure 1.6, global risks are relatively small at present. current risk patterns.
Figure 1.4 Age-Standardized Trends in Mortality Risk for Household Air Pollution and for Poor Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene, 2015
a. Household air pollution from solid fuels b. Poor water, sanitation, and hygiene
200
90
Deaths per 100,000 population
150
60
100
50 30
0 0
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
income income income income
Injury Prevention and Environmental Health: Key Messages from Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition 9
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
nada quer saber do governo! Assim os vereis hoje em solemnes
relatorios declarar a patria á beira de um abysmo, e ámanhan com
egual entono chamar a Portugal um primor, á sua condição
abençoada! Virarem os cataventos politicos, é caso vulgar, individual
apenas, em regimes anarchicos; mas girar de tal modo a opinião
sobre os proprios sentimentos essenciaes de uma nação, senão é
unico, é raro: hoje ibericos, ámanhan nacionalistas; hoje tudo negro,
ámanhan tudo azul; hoje arruinados, ámanhan opulentos—quem
vos entende, ó sabia gente?
Entende-vos o critico, vendo n’este agitar de opiniões como as
rasteiras nuvens de poeira tonta que ás vezes o vento se diverte a
mover sobre uma larga campina: indifferente, o chão fica immovel.
Assim os ministerios succedem aos ministerios sem haver mudança.
E que alteração poderia dar-se, não existindo forças moraes vivas,
nem questões economicas ardentes? Que outra cousa ha a fazer
senão ir, mansamente, deixando o tempo correr: dando
melhoramentos ao campo, consolidando no Thesouro os dinheiros
do Brazil, despachando o expediente, comprando algumas armas e
navios por distracção ou simplez? Não falta quem sinceramente
creia serem as cousas de sua natureza assim, assim as nações-a-
valer, assim o mundo, assim a realidade. O resto? sonhos de
poetas, bilis de homens amarellidos! Vamos indo assim, que vamos
bem.
Outros pensam, comtudo, de um modo diverso. Ha nos seus
postos, egualmente distantes, egualmente desarraigados da nação,
o pessoal inteiro da Republica salvadora, scientifica, patriota,
federalista, vermelhissima. Quem observa, descobre logo; um é
Robespierre, outro um soffrivel Marat; não falta Desmoulins, e
Theroigne de Mericourt já préga ás massas. É um velho cliché
jacobino, sem Danton, é verdade! um velho cliché jacobino
envernizado de novo. É tambem uma poeirada que passa; mas
quando a atmosphera está incerta, de um para outro momento vem
um aguaceiro que precipita o pó, e pousa sobre o chão uma camada
de lodo. O tempo a seccará breve, o vento a levantará outra vez em
pó, mas entretanto mais de um se ha de atolar.
É provavel essa revolução possivel? Talvez; porque a nação não
tem força para a impedir, e os conservadores vivem da fraqueza
alheia e não de energia propria. Talvez, porque, se não ha quem a
evite, as cousas concorrem para a provocar. Será proxima?
Ninguem o póde dizer: é materia de acaso. Tanto póde ser
ámanhan, como d’aqui a bastantes annos. Todos concordam em
que isto, se não houver tropeços, ainda póde durar. Quem sabe se
os demagogos de hoje ficarão na historia como os da geração
precedente, acantonados pela força das cousas nas mesas das
secretarias?
Talvez assim venha a succeder, e talvez não. Ha poucos annos
dizia alguem que estavamos «a pedir bispo». Tenha de haver outra
janeirinha, e bispo será a quéda da monarchia constitucional. Em 28
rebentou em furias o tumor historico portuguez; e para essa data
futura uma puncção vasará a agua que existe no ventre da
hydropica Liberdade. Ver-se ha então como cheira e a que sabe.
Esse incidente politico é necessario por varias causas, particulares e
geraes. As primeiras demandam estudo mais demorado a que
passaremos já; as segundas estão na atmosphera que as nações
latinas respiram actualmente, atmosphera viciada mais ainda entre
nós pela desordem intellectual atraz esboçada.
O jacobinismo não acabou ainda. Como um camaleão, quando
vestiu a côr do romantismo fez-se monarchia parlamentar; mas falta
que se faça outra vez republica radical, federalista, naturalista,
positivista, porque, sem ter consummado a destruição dos velhos
symbolos, a sua missão não terminou. O organismo futuro das
nações não poderá formar-se emquanto o velho organismo não tiver
acabado de se dissolver inteiramente pelo classico aphorismo:
corpora non agunt nisi soluta.
Só depois d’isso se reconstituirá o Estado e a democracia achará
a definição que vem pedindo ha um seculo, sem a encontrar. Vox
clamantis in deserto, ninguem lhe responde, por isso que a idéa
individualista-espiritualista, conservadora ou jacobinamente
expressa, tyrannisa ainda as intelligencias. Mas já hoje do corpo das
sciencias naturaes sae esta definição: a sociedade é um organismo
vivo, contradizendo a definição de quasi um seculo: a sociedade é
uma ficção, o individuo humano a unica realidade. Esta idéa nova,
que todos os dias conquista partidarios, encontra a contra-prova nos
factos economicos e nas tradições da historia. A civilisação de um
povo apresenta os mesmos phenomenos que a evolução
progressiva de qualquer individuo animal: especialisação de
funcções, definição dos orgãos, cohesão de movimentos,
centralisação de commando. O Estado é como um cerebro.
Ninguem já hoje crê em milagres, e menos do que em nenhum
outro no do direito divino. Entretanto, é mistér vêr, n’essa concepção
transcendente, o symbolo de uma idéa positiva. O espirito collectivo
nunca errou; e a historia não é mais do que a explicação successiva
dos enygmas por milagres symbolicos, e afinal dos milagres pelas
idéas na sua pureza. O direito divino era a expressão religiosa, ou,
se quizerem, metaphysica, da soberania popular. A nação
personalisava-se n’um rei, da mesma fórma que a humanidade se
personalisava n’um Deus-homem. Desde que não ha direito-divino
todos são democratas, isto é, todos põem no povo a origem da
authoridade: resta descobrir as fórmulas adequadas ao exercicio
d’essa authoridade. No direito-divino a fórmula era a hierarchia, a
classe. Na democracia, o criterio é a Egualdade; a fórmula acha-se
na realidade das funcções organicas da sociedade. No direito-divino
rege a vontade da pessoa-symbolo do monarcha; na democracia a
vontade dos cidadãos.
N’este momento se chega pela doutrina á politica, e pela theoria á
practica. De que modo se exprime essa vontade? Viritim,
individualmente, peia somma dos votos? Assim se tem dito; e d’ahi
têem vindo as revoluções, a anarchia, o moderno feodalismo
consequente. Oxalá que a broca da analyse—bella expressão de
Mousinho!—penetre rapido e demonstre que esse processo
confunde deploravelmente a administração com a politica; scinde a
duração e ataca a consistencia indispensaveis aos pensamentos
governativos; põe tudo, todas as cousas mais especiaes, á mercê
das opiniões menos competentes; e torna os interesses collectivos
dependentes dos interesses individuaes amalgamados, chocados,
sem poderem fundir-se n’uma synthese organica.
Sob o nome de democracia existe apenas uma anarchia,
constitucional, sim, quando atravessâmos calmarias politicas, mas
que se desenfreia logo que se levanta o minimo temporal. E a
liberdade consiste em uma concorrencia franca, da qual sae o
consequente feodalismo—bancario, industrial, burocratico. São
factos naturaes, modificados apenas nos aspectos por condições
diversas. Assim, quando o Estado imperial romano decaía até
tombar de todo, se distribuiram as terras a protectores armados;
assim, quando o Estado monarchico acabou, se distribuiram os
instrumentos de força collectiva aos novos barões da finança e da
industria. São dois exemplos de pulverisação da authoridade
collectiva: um violento, o outro pacifico; um sanccionado pelas
armas, o outro pelas leis liberaes: ambos fataes, ambos
espontaneos.
Ora emquanto a nação prescindir de cerebro, isto é, de Estado,
manter-se-ha acephala; emquanto o Estado não tiver como
pensamento a Egualdade, ou emquanto, mantendo-se uma ficção
de poder, se obedecer de facto ás ordens dos patronos das varias
clientelas politicas, bancarias, industriaes; emquanto esses novos
barões fizerem de povo: a Democracia será uma chimera, por isso
mesmo que a nação demonstrará não ter capacidade para ser
senão o que é. Á sombra de uma liberdade sempre crescente, dia a
dia, com o crescer da riqueza, irá crescendo a scizão dos pobres e
dos ricos, em virtude d’essa lei simples que dá a victoria a quem
mais póde.
NOTAS DE RODAPÉ: