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TWENTIETH EDITION

Economics
Today
The Micro View

Roger LeRoy Miller

Research Professor of Economics,
University of Texas-Arlington

@ Pearson
Dedication For Sabine,
Courage has always been your strong suit.
And I continue to admire it greatly.
R.L.M.

Please contact https://support.pearson .com/getsupport/s/contactsupport with an y queries on this content.

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BRIEF CONTENTS

Preface xi

PART 1 Introduction
1 The Nature of Economics
2 Scarcity and the World of Trade-Otts 26
3 Demand and Supply 48
4 Extensions of Demand and Supply Analysis 73
5 Public Spending and Public Choice 98
6 Funding the Public Sector 120

PARTS Dimensions of Microeconomics

19 Demand and Supply Elasticity 402
20 Consumer Choice 423
21 Rents, Profits, and the Financial Environment of Business 450

PART6 Market Structure, Resource Allocation, and Regulation

22 The Firm: Cost and Output Determination 471
23 Perfect Competition 495
24 Monopoly 519
25 Monopolistic Competition 542
26 Oligopoly and Strategic Behavior 561
27 Regulation and Antitrust Policy in a Globalized Economy 582

PART7 Labor Resources and the Environment

28 The Labor Market 605
29 Income, Poverty, and Health Care 631
30 Environmental Economics 652

PARTS Global Economics

31 Comparative Advantage and the Open Economy 669
32 Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments 691

iii
 CONTENTS
Preface xi

PART 1 Introduction
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA 1 The Nature of Economics 1
Microeconomic and Macroeconomic The Power of Economic Analysis 2 • The Three Basic Economic Questions and Two
Applications 4 Opposing Sets of Answers 4 • The Economic Approach: Systematic Decisions 6
EXAMPLE • Economics as a Science 8
The Altered Incentives Confronting WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ... people's actual reactions to incentives differ from how they
Prospective College Students 7 claim they would respond in answers to survey questions? 9
Getting Directions 8 Positive versus Normative Economics 10
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Government Involvement Enables a Private U.S. Housing
Assessing Whether Charitable Dona- Finance Company to Provide "Cheap" Loans 12
tions Reflect Caring for Others or for
Oneself 7
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Why Fewer Men in Manufacturing Jobs Helps to Explain Why
Fewer Women Are Married 12
Summary: What You Should Know 13 • Problems 14 • References 16
APPENDIX A Reading and Working with Graphs 17
Direct and Inverse Relationships 17 • Constructing a Graph 18 • Graphing
N umbers in a Table 19 • The Slope of a Line (A Linear Curve) 21 • What You
Should Know 24 • Problems 25

BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE 2 Scarcity and the World of Trade-Offs 26

Why People with the Highest Hourly
Opportunity Cost Allocate as Much
Time to Leisure as Everyone Else 29
EXAMPLE
The Economic Explanation for
Shrinking Airline Restrooms 31
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
City Management 33
POLICY EXAMPLE
City Bicycle Lanes Encounter the Law
of Increasing Additional Cost 35
Scarcity 27 • Opportunity Cost, Trade-Offs, and Choices 29 • The Economic
Choices a Nation's People Face 32 • Economic Growth, Production Possibilities, and
the Trade-Off between Present and Future 36
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . new companies can handle the wastewater by-product from
oi l tracking at a lower opportunity cost than the oil-drilling firms that generate the wastewater
as a by-prod uct of unearthing the oil? 38
Comparative Advantage and Maximizing Your Future Income 38
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Extreme Special ization Leads One Person to Pursue Small-
Rocket Launches 41
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS There Is No Such Th ing as Free Parking 41
Summary: What You Should Know 43 • Problems 44 • References 47

EXAMPLE 3 Demand and Supply 48

The Soaring Relative Price of
Restaurant Meals 50 Demand 49 • Shifts in Demand 54 • Supply 58 • Shifts in Supply 61
Assessing the Quality-Adjusted Prices WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . both sellers and buyers anticipate that the price of an item wi ll
of Old and New Concert Violins 51 increase in the future? 63
Technological Change Boosts Su pply Putting Demand and Supply Together 64
in the Jewelry Market 62
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Why Pay-What-You-Want Pricing
Often Pays Off for Charitable
Organizations 52

iv

INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE
In China, Lower-Priced Solar Energy
Puts a Damper on the Demand for
Coal 56
A British Vegetable Shortage Has
Predictable Effects on Vegetable
Prices 66
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
The Global Tourism Industry 58
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Transaction Costs and "Price
Stickiness" 75
EXAMPLE
The Effects of a Simultaneous
Decrease in the Supply of and an
Increase in the Demand for Vinyl
Records 78
"99-Seat Th eaters" in Los Angeles
Adapt to a Minimum Wage
Requirement 86
INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE
Customers of eWater Prefer Price
Rationing over First Come, First
Served at a Zero Price 79
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Experimental Evidence Verifies Predic-
tions about the Effects of Imposing a
Price Floor in a Labor Market 87
EXAMPLE
Neighbors Are Not Hog Wild about a
North Carolina Pig Farm 100
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Contemplating Big Data as a Public
Good 105
POLICY EXAMPLE
Government Sponsorship Keeps Light
Rail Systems in Operation 106
Private Space Firms Recycle Rocket
Boosters and Capsules That the
Government Regards as
Throwaways 113
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
To Inhibit Nicotine Consumption, Should
the Government Assume That All
Consumers Behave the Same? 107
POLICY EXAMPLE
State Governments Confront Higher
Debt Repayment Expenses 121
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Preserving National Tax Bases 122
EXAMPLE
Average Federal Income Tax Rates and
U.S. Income Tax Progressivity 123
CONTENTS V
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Space-Constrained Restaurants Discover That Customers Care
abo ut Quality-Adjusted Lunch Prices 67
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Explaining a Consumption Shift from Soft Drinks to Bottled
Water: Tastes versus Relative Prices 67
Summary: What You Should Know 69 • Problems 70 • References 72
4 Extensions of Demand and Supply Analysis 73
T he Price System and Markets 74 • Changes in Demand and Supply 75
• T he Rationing Function of Prices 78 • Price Ceilings 80
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . .. the New York City government effectively raises the legal
minimum price of cigarettes within the city's boundaries to almost twice the average U.S.
price? 81
Price Floors and Quantity Restrictions 83
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE A Mayor Favors the Minimum Wage until Confronting Its
Consequences 87
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Why Shortages of Some Pharmaceuticals Generate Higher
Prices for Other Drugs 88
Summary: What You Should Know 89 • Problems 90 • References 93
APPENDIX B Consumer Surplus, Producer Surplus , and Gains from Trade within a Price
System 94
Consumer Surplus 94 • Producer Surplus 95 • Gains from Trade within a Price
System 96 • Price Controls and Gains from Trade 97
5 Public Spending and Public Choice 98
Market Failures and Externalities 99
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ... governments require everyone to purchase health
insu rance? 102
The Other Economic Functions of Government 103 • T he Political Functions
of Government 106 • Public Spending and Transfer Programs 107 • Collective
Decision Making: The Theory of Public Choice 111
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Fake "Service Pets" Create Exte rnal Costs on Airline
Flights 114
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Residents of Wisconsin Learn That Services Provided by State
Parks Are Not Public Goods 114
Summary: What You Should Know 115 • Problems 116 • References 119
6 Funding the Public Sector 120
Paying for the Public Sector: Systems of Taxation 121 •The Most Important Federal
Taxes 123
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ... the government raises the tax rate on capital gains derived
fro m sales of financial assets? 125
Tax Rates and Tax Revenues 127 •Taxation from the Point of View of Producers and
Consumers 130
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE The Connecticut Govern ment Decides to Avoid Striking Out on
Its Income Tax Policy 132
Vi CONTENTS

POLICY EXAMPLE ISSUES & APPLICATIONS What Would It Take to Save Social Security as We Know It? 132
If You Generate Sales from Moving Summary: What You Should Know 133 •Problems 134 •References 136
Items from Ou r State to Outer Space,
Pay Up ! 128
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Increases in Complex Sales Taxes
Generate Predictable Dynamic
Responses by Consumers 129

PARTS Dimensions of Microeconomics

EXAMPLE 19 Demand and Supply Elasticity 402
The Price Elasticity of Demand for
Price Elasticity 403
Freshman Enrollments at Private
Colleges 404 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . a government req uires firms to collect a per-unit tax on sales
of a product for which demand is highly elastic? 407
INTERNATIONAL POLICY
EXAMPLE Elasticity and Total Revenues 407 • Determinants of the Price Elasticity of
The Price Elasticity of Demand for Demand 410 • T he Cross Price and Income Elasticities of Demand 413 • Price
Tesla Vehicles in Hong Kong 405 Elasticity of Supply 415
Al-DECISION MAKING ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Imposing a Philadelphia Soft Drinks Tax Reveals Information
THROUGH DATA about the Price Elasticity of Demand 417
In the Pursuit of "Price ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Tax-Induced Increases in Airline Ticket Prices, the Price
Optimization" 410 Elasticity of Demand, and Airl ine Revenues 418
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE Summary: What You Should Know 419 • Problems 420 • References 421
Getting Paid to Work Out 415
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE 20 Consumer Choice 423
Rational Rationing of Calories to
Prevent Negative Marginal Utility from
Utility Theory 424
Food Consumption 427 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . consumi ng an add itional unit of a good or service leaves total
Al-DECISION MAKING utility unchanged? 426
THROUGH DATA Optimizing Consumption Choices 428 •How a Price Change Affects Consumer
An Aid for Attaining a Consumer Optimum 431 • Behavioral Economics and Consumer C hoice Theory 434
Optimum 428 ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Boutique Sellers Offer $2,000 Japanese-Made Jeans That
EXAMPLE Some Consumers Tru ly Are Happy to Buy 435
Why a Consumer Optimum Can ISSUES & APPLICATIONS How Much "Intermittently Functioning" High-Tech Automotive
Encompass a $100 Plain White Cotton Gadgetry Fits into a Consumer Optimum 436
T-Shirt 431
Summary: What You Should Know 437 •Problems 438 •References 440
APPENDIX F More Advanced Consumer Choice Theory 441
On Being Indifferent 441 • The Budget Constraint and the Consumer Optimum 445
•Deriving the Demand Curve 447
Summary: What You Should Know 448 • Problems 449

POLICY EXAMPLE 21 Rents, Profits, and the Financial Environment of Business 450
State Governments Discover That a
Change in the Interest Rate Affects
Economic Rent 451 • Firms and Profits 452
Discounted Present Value 460 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN .. . factors of production that a producer al ready owns could be
INTERNATIONAL POLICY leased to other firms at a higher price than previously? 455
EXAMPLE Interest 458 • Corporate Financing Methods 461
A Government Bond Designed for a ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE What New Microwave Towers Have to Do with Modern
Generation of Smartphone Users 462 Financial Markets 465
Al-DECISION MAKING ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Explaining the Growth in the Number of Widely Used "Stock
THROUGH DATA Indexes" 465
Supplementing or Replacing Human Summary: What You Should Know 466 • Problems 467 • References 469
Financial Trading 463
EXAMPLE
Why Trying to Induce Companies to
"Do the Right Thing" by "Punishing"
Their Stocks Often Fails 464

PART& Market Structure, Resource Allocation , and Regulation
EXAMPLE
A Railroad Company Rediscovers How
to Obtain Maximu m Feasible Produc-
tion from Available Inputs 473
Airline Companies Hope to Reduce
Their Total Costs at the Expense of
Higher Total Fixed Costs 477
Long-Haul Trucking Firms Seek to
Attain a Minimum Efficient Scale
Encompassing "Last-Mile
Deliveries" 489
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Using Augmented Reality 479
INTERNATIONAL POLICY
EXAMPLE
Government Policies May Ensure
Economies of Scale for a Chinese
Battery Manufacturer 487
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Accessing All Relevant Information for
"Dynamic Pricing" 497
INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE
Reallocating Quarters and Deck Space
Transforms Ocean Freighters into
Partial Cruise Ships 509
EXAMPLE
Assessing the Long-Run Industry
Supply Curve in the Growing Third-
Party Food Delivery Industry 51 1
POLICY EXAMPLE
Chicago's Licensing Barriers to Entry
Limit Consumers' Access to Mobile
Food Treats 522
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Using "Dynamic Clustering Analysis"
to Maximize Profits 529
Price Discrimination via "Personalized
Pricing" 531
CONTENTS Vii
22 The Firm: Cost and Output Determination 471
Short Run Versus Long Run 472 • A Firm's Production 473 • Short-Run Costs to
the Firm 476
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ... total fixed cost increases at a firm? 481
Long-Run Cost Curves 485
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Returning to the Days of Sailing Ships with High-Tech Wind
Cylinders 489
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Retailers Employ Al and Robots in Pursuit of Economies of
Scale 490
Summary: What You Should Know 491 • Problems 492 • References 494
23 Perfect Competition 495
Characteristics of a Perfectly Competitive Market Structure 496 • Profit-Maximizing
Choices of a Perfectly Competitive Firm 497 • Short-Run Supply under Perfect
Competition 501
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ... a new regu lation causes the marginal cost curve and, hence,
the ave rage total cost and variable cost curves to shift upward, thereby altering the short-run
break-even and shutdown prices? 504
Price Determination under Perfect Competition 507 • The Long-Run Industry
Situation: Exit and Entry 508
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE For Urban Farmers, Industry Entry May Be Relatively Unim-
peded but Still Entails a Key Expense 513
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Higher Minimum Wage Rates and Long-R un Eq uilibrium in the
Restaurant Industry 514
Summary: What You Should Know 515 • Problems 516 • References 518
24 Monopoly 519
Defining and Explaining the Existence of Monopoly 520 • The Demand Curve a
Monopolist Faces 523 • Costs and Monopoly Profit Maximization 525
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ... the demand curve faced by a monopolist shifts rightward
and the monopolist wishes to determine how many units to produce to maximize economic
profits? 528
On Making Higher Profits: Price Discrimination 531 • The Social Cost of
Monopolies 532
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE So, You Want to Provide Dietary Advice in Florida? Get a
License! 533
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS The Unraveling of Taxicab Monopolies 534
Summary: What You Should Know 535 • Problems 536 • References 538
APPENDIX G Consumer Surplus and the Deadweight Loss Resulting from Monopoly 539
Consumer Surplus in a Perfectly Competitive Market 539 • How Society Loses from
Monopoly 540
Viii CONTENTS
EXAMPLE
A New Wave of Product Differentiation
Sweeps the Movie Theater
Industry 544
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Why Physicians in Norway Behave Dif-
ferently While Working in Second Jobs
at Private Practices 545
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Analysis of Billions of Prices 548
INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE
The Four-Firm Concentration Ratio in
the Global Tire Industry 565
EXAMPLE
The HHI for the U.S. Airline
Industry 566
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Success in Game Theory Does Not
Necessarily Req uire Complex
Thinking 569
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Developing a New Source of Industry
Concentration 575
POLICY EXAMPLE
Cost-of-Service Regulation of the U.S.
Health Insurance Industry Fails to
Contain Either Costs or Prices 587
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Applying a Human Regulatory Touch
to Firms' Al Systems 589
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Regulatory Nudges Predicated on
Paternalistic Lies 592
POLICY EXAMPLE
California Seeks to Reduce Homeown-
ers' Energy Costs at the Expense of
Higher House Prices 594
INTERNATIONAL POLICY
EXAMPLE
Relevant Illegal Competition Com-
plicates Merger Evaluations in Latin
America 597
PART7 Labor Resources and the Environment
INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE
A Newly Derived Demand for German
Coal Mines Relates to Energy but Not
to Coal 610
25 Monopolistic Competition 542
Monopolistic Competition 543 • Price and Output for the Monopolistic
Competitor 546 • Brand Names and Advertising 549 • Information Products and
Monopolistic Competition 55 1
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . an author who independently sells an information product- a
self-help e-book-and initially earns zero economic profits experiences a large increase in the
demand for downloads of the item? 554
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Cru ise Ships Turn to "Star Fleet" and Other Themes to Dif-
ferentiate Their Services 555
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS U.S. Industries That Differentiate Their Prod ucts via Digital
Advertising 555
Summary: What You Should Know 557 • Problems 557 • References 560
26 Oligopoly and Strategic Behavior 561
Oligopoly 562 • Measuring Industry Concentration 563 • Strategic Behavior and
Game T heory 566 • The Cooperative Game: A Collusive Cartel 569
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . the market demand curve shifts leftward in an industry with
a cartel whose member firms have restrained production in order to charge the profit-
maximizing monopoly price? 573
Network Effects and Two-Sided Markets 573
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Searching for Cosmetics Products with Network Effects 576
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Why Platform Firms Must Balance Getting More Customers
vis-a-vis Getting the Right Customers 577
Summary: What You Should Know 578 • Problems 579 • References 580
27 Regulation and Antitrust Policy in a Globalized Economy 582
Forms oflndustry Regulation 583 • Regulating Natural Monopolies 585
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . a natural monopoly subject to a regulatory requ irement to
utilize average cost pricing experiences a decline in the demand for its prod uct? 587
Regulating Nonmonopolistic Industries 588 • Incentives and Costs of
Regulation 591 • Antitrust Policy 594
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE When a Regu lation Requiring the Label "Added Sugars" Actu-
ally Means Noth ing of the Sort 599
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS How Have FDA Regulatory Rules Dramatically Pushed Up Prices
of Old Drugs That Now Are "New"? 600
Summary: What You Should Know 601 • Problems 601 • References 604
28 The Labor Market 605
The Demand for Labor in a Perfectly Competitive Labor Market 606 • Wage
Determination in a Perfectly Competitive Labor Market 611 • Labor Demand
of a Monopolist and Overall Input Utilization 613 • Monopsony: A Buyer's
Monopoly 618 • Labor Unions 622
 CONTENTS ix
EXAMPLE ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Why Tennis Clubs Are Replacing Human Line Judges with
Someday, You May Purchase a Largely Robots 625
Robot-Constructed House 617 ISSUES & APPLICATIONS Video Games, U.S. Labor Supply, and Equilibrium Employment
Al-DECISION MAKING and Wages 625
THROUGH DATA Summary: What You Should Know 627 • Problems 628 • References 630
Monopsonistic Decisions for Hiring
Service Providers 620
POLICY EXAMPLE
In Twenty-Eight U.S. States, "Right to
Work" Means No Mandatory Union
"Dues" and Shrinking Union
Memberships 624

EXAMPLE 29 Income, Poverty, and Health Care 631

Why a Rise in U.S. Wealth Inequality
Can Be Blamed in Part on Aging "Baby
Boomers" 636
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
The Lasting Positive Effect on Lifetime
Earnings of Childhood Access to
Books and Parental Readings 638
POLICY EXAMPLE
The Unavoidable Implications of Some
Basic Social Security Arithmetic 641
Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Reducing Repetitive Health Care
Services 644
The Distribution of Income 63 2
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . .. a nation's Lorenz curve becomes less bowed away from the
45-degree line? 634
Determinants of Income Differences 636 • Poverty and Attempts to Eliminate It 640
• Health Care 642
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Targeting In-Kind Care in Government Health Programs 646
ISSUES & APPLICATIONS The Effective Marginal Tax Rate Faced by Beneficiaries of Anti-
Poverty Programs Who Wish to Work 647
Summary: What You Should Know 648 • Problems 649 • References 650

INTERNATIONAL POLICY 30 Environmental Economics 652

EXAMPLE
Private versus Social Costs 653
A Potentially High Marginal Cost
of Plastic-Pollution Abatement in WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . .. a nation's government imposes a uniform pollution tax even
Kenya 658 though the economic cost for the same quantity of polluti on differs across locations? 656
Could South African Rhino Poaching Pollution 656 • Reducing H umanity's C arbon Footprint: Restraining Spillovers 658
Be Stopped by Legalizing Trade in • Common Property and W ild Species 660
Rhino Horns? 662
ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE Removing Individual Trees from View to Ensure Seeing the
Al-DECISION MAKING Forest 663
THROUGH DATA
Managing Decisions Within the Euro- ISSUES & APPLICATIONS European Authorities Restrain the Supply of Emissions Allow-
pean Emissions Trading System 659 ances to Push Up Their Price 663
Summary: What You Should Know 664 • Problems 665 • References 667
BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Common Property, the "Paradox of
Plenty," and Gains from Assigning
Resource Property Rights 661

PARTS Global Economics

Al-DECISION MAKING
THROUGH DATA
Reshaping International Trade
Flows 675
INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE
Gains from Agricultural Specialization
and Trade Conquer Distance 676
31 Comparative Advantage and the Open Economy 669
Why We Trade: Comparative Advantage and Mutual Gains from Exchange 670
• Arguments against Free Trade 678 • Ways to Restrict Foreign Trade 680
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . .. a nation's government reduces an existing quota limit on
foreign imports of a specific item? 681
International Trade Organizations 684
X CONTENTS
EXAMPLE ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE A Potential Shift of Comparative Advantage in Olive Oil
Shipping Containers and International Prod uction toward the United States 685
Trade 677 ISSUES & APPLICATIONS What Do Countries Gain from Involvement in Reg ional Trade
INTERNATIONAL POLICY Agreements? 686
EXAMPLE Summary: What You Should Know 687 • Problems 688 • References 689
Identifying Who Loses Out as a
Consequence of Asian Tariffs on Rice
Imports 683

INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE 32 Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments 691

The Non-U.S. Derived Demand for and
Supply of U.S. Dollars 701
T he Balance of Payments and International Financial Flows 692

INTERNATIONAL POLICY WHAT HAPPENS WHEN . . . U.S. spending on merchandise imports increases during the
EXAMPLE same year that foreign expenditures on U.S. merchan dise exports decrease, other things being
equal? 697
African Governments with Dollar-
Denominated Debts Confront Foreign Deriving the Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange 697 •Determining
Exchange Depreciations 707 Foreign Exchange Rates 701 • Fixed Versus Floating Exchange Rates 704
Al-DECISION MAKING ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE The Hong Ko ng Monetary Authority Acts to Keep Its Cur-
THROUGH DATA rency's Exchange Rate Fixed 708
Foreign Exchange Markets Involving ISSUES & APPLICATIONS How Chang ing a Fixed Exchange Rate to Try to Absorb Shocks
Really Big Data 707 Eventually Can Cause Shocks 709
Summary: What You Should Know 710 • Problems 710 • References 712

Glossary 715
Index 727
 PREFACE

I have modified the learning and teaching package for this 20th edition of Economics
Today to make learning more efficient for your students. At the same time, the hall-
mark of each previous edition has been maintained-teaching and learning through
examples.

Solving Learning and Teaching Challenges

Improving Student Success Through Videos and Animation

Depending on which version you choose for your students, there are available:
• Concept videos with voiceovers
• Concept videos with on-screen live instructor presence
• Improved animated graphs, often with live instructor presence
In addition, for those of you who require that your students access an online version
of the text, all of the Self Check exercises have easily viewable click-on answers avail-
able. These Self Checks are numbered for easy reference by you.

Learning Economic Skills That Are Practical

An increasing number of beginning economics students want concrete examples
about economics that can help them today and tomorrow in their real life. To this
end, I have done the following in this new edition:
• I have added short paragraphs throughout the text, which relate previously dis-
cussed theory with practical applications.
• I have also added Real Application questions throughout. These questions relate
to careers, managerial decision making, future household behavior, and voting
choices, to list just a few.
• Each chapter ends with a feature called Economics in Your Life, plus an additional
Real Application question.
• Each chapter-ending Issue and Application ends with a Real Application question.

What's New to This Edition

Explaining Artificial Intelligence (Al) Applications in the Real World

New to this edition, I have added a feature entitled Al-Decision-Making Through
Data. There are almost three dozen of these, including:
• The Global Tourism Industry (Chapter 3)
• Contemplating Big Data as a Public Good (Chapter 5)
• Preserving National Tax Bases (Chapter 6)

xi
Xii PREFACE

Other New Features

Already mentioned are the chapter-ending features called Economics in Your Life.
Another new feature is What Happens When . . .. This new feature will help
students apply previously discussed theory. Some examples are:
• What Happens When ... people's actual reactions to incentives differ from how
they claim they would respond in answers to survey questions? (Chapter 1)
• What Happens When ... both buyers and sellers anticipate that the price of an
item will increase in the future? (Chapter 3)
• What Happens When ... the New York City government effectively raises the
legal minimum price of cigarettes within the city's boundaries to almost twice the
average U.S. price? (Chapter 4)

All Other Features That Are New to This Edition

Economics Today has always been known to provide the latest high-interest features.
To this end, I have replaced every feature in the text, including:
• All chapter-opening Did You Know That . . . features
• All Examples, Policy Examples, and International Examples
• All Behavioral Economics Examples
• All Issues and Applications

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Roger LeRoy Miller studied at the University of California at Berkeley where he

earned a B.S . in economics while garnering the Departmental Prize. He graduated
Phi Beta Kappa and Summa Cum Laude and was the recipient of numerous
fellowships, including a National Science Foundation Fellowship. He chose to
become a Lilly Honor Fellow at the University of Chicago and received his Ph.D. in
a record 21/2 years.
He has taught at the University of Washington and the University of Miami,
where he also co-founded The Law and Economics Center. He is currently Research
Professor of Economics at the University of Texas, Arlington. In addition to writing
Economics Today, he has authored or co-authored dozens of textbooks, including
Applied Econometrics, Intermediate Microeconomics, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Money
and Banking, and The Economics of Public Issues.
He continues to be a passionate athlete, regularly entering sanctioned
triathlons, cross-country ski races, and road-bike time trials.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
As always, I receive a continuing set of suggestions from those professors who use my text. And as always,
I try to satisfy every criticism and comment. In addition, a number of professors have been asked by the
publisher to review the 19th edition. To all of you listed below, please accept my sincere appreciation for
the great work that you have done.

Thomas Elliot, Columbia College
Maria Giuili, Diablo Valley College
Sanja Grubacic, Southern Connecticut State University
Ronald Halcrow, Antelope Valley College
Timothy Hamilton, Columbia College
Samuel Imarhiagbe, Collin College
Ninos Malek, San Jose State University and De Anza College
Margaret McDaniel, Community College ofAllegheny County
Kevin McWoodson, Moraine Valley Community College
Alex Obiya, San Diego City College
Jeff Salavitabar, Delaware County Community College
James Sondgeroth, Austin Community College
Alan Traverse, Columbia College
Ricardo Vicente, BYU-Hawaii

I also thank the reviewers of previous editions:

Rebecca Abraham, Cinda J . Adams, Esmond Adams, John Adams, Bill Adamson, Carlos Aguilar, John
R. Aidem, Mohammed Akacem, Ercument Aksoy, M. C. Alderfer, John Allen, Ann Al-Yasiri, Charles
Anderson, Leslie J. Anderson, Fatma W Antar, Len Anyanwu, Kenneth Ardon, Rebecca Arnold,
Mohammad Ashraf, Ali A. Ataiifar, Aliakbar Ataiifar, Leonard Atencio, J ohn Atkins, Glen W. Atkinson,
T homas R. Atkinson, James Q. Aylesworth, John Baffoe-Bonnie, Kevin Baird, Maurice B. Ballabon,
Charley Ballard, G. Jeffrey Barbour, Robin L. Barlett, Daniel Barszcz, Kari Battaglia, Robert Becker,
Kevin Beckwith, Charles Beem, G len Beeson, Bruce W Bellner, Daniel K. Benjamin, Emil Berendt,
Charles Berry, Abraham Bertisch, John Bethune, Barbara Blake Gonzalez, R. A. Blewett, Scott Bloom,
John Bockino, M . L. Bodnar, Mary Bone, Theologos Homer Bonitsis, Karl Bonnhi, Thomas
W. Bonsor, John M. Booth, Wesley F. Booth, Thomas Borcherding, Melvin Borland, Tom Boston,
Barry Boyer, Austin Boyle, Walter Boyle, Maryanna Boynton, Ronald Brandolini, Fenton
L. Broadhead, Elba Brown, William Brown, James Buck, Michael Bull, William Burrows, Maureen
Burton, Conrad P. Caligaris, Steven Capolarello, Kevin Carey, James Carlson, Robert Carlsson, Joel
Caron, Dancy R. Carr, Scott Carson, Doris Cash, Thomas H. Cate, Richard J. Cebula, Catherine
Chambers, K. Merry Chambers, Richard Chapman, Xudong Chen, Ronald Cherry, David Ching, Young
Back Choi, Marc Chopin, Carol Cies, Joy L. Clark, Curtis Clarke, Gary Clayton, Marsha Clayton, Dale
0. Cloninger, Warren L. Coats, Ed Coen, Pat Conroy, James Cox, Stephen R. Cox, Eleanor D . Craig,
Peggy Crane, Jerry Crawford, Patrick M . Crowley, Richard Croxdale, Joanna Cruse, John P. Cullity,
Will Cummings, Thomas Curtis, Joel Dalafave, Margaret M. Dalton, Andrew J. Dane, Mahmoud
Davoudi, Diana Denison, Edward Dennis, Julia G . Derrick, Sowjanya Dharmasankar, Carol Dimamro,
William Dougherty, Stephen Downing, Tanya Downing, Brad Duerson, Barry Duman, Diane Dumont,
Floyd Durham, G. B. Duwaji, James A. Dyal, Ishita Edwards, Robert P. Edwards, Alan E . Ellis, Miuke
Ellis, Steffany Ellis, Frank Emerson, Carl Enomoto, Zaki Eusufzai, Patricia Euzent, Sandy Evans, John
L. Ewing-Smith, Jamie Falcon, Frank Falero, Frank Fato, Elizabeth Faunce, Maurita Fawls, Abdollah
Ferdowsi, Grant Ferguson, Victoria L. Figiel, Mitchell Fisher, David Fletcher, James Foley, John
Foreman, Diana Fortier, Ralph G. Fowler, Julia Frankland, Deborah Frazier, Arthur Friedberg, Peter
Frost, Timothy S. Fuerst, Tom Fullerton, E. Gabriel, James Gale, Hamilton Galloway, Byron Gangnes,
Frank Garland, Peter C. Garlick, Steve Garner, Neil Garston, Alexander Garvin, Joe Garwood, Doug
Gehrke, Robert Gentenaar, J. P. Gilbert, Otis Gilley, Frank Glesber, Jack Goddard, George Goerner,
Michael G. Goode, Allen C. Goodman, Richard J. Gosselin, Paul Graf, Anthony J. Greco, Edward
Greenberg, Gary Greene, Peter A. Groothuis, Philip J. Grossman, Nicholas Grunt, William Gunther,
Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong, Demos Hadjiyanis, Reza G. Hamzaee, Martin D. Haney, Mehdi
Haririan, Ray Harvey, Michael J. Haupert, E. L. Hazlett, Dennis Heiner, Sanford B. Helman, W illiam
Henderson, Robert Herman, Gus W Herring, Aref Hervani, Charles H ill, John M. Hill, Morton
Hirsch, Benjamin Hitchner, Charles W. Hockert, Stella Hofrenning, R. Bradley Hoppes, James
Horner, Grover Howard, Nancy Howe-Ford, Cedric Howie, Calvin Hoy, Yu-Mong Hsiao, Yu Hsing,

xiii
xiv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Peng Huang, James Hubert, George Hughes, Joseph W Hunt Jr. , Scott Hunt, John Ifediora, R. Jack
Inch, Christopher Inya, Tomotaka Ishimine, E. E. Jarvis, Ricot Jean, Parvis Jenab, Allan Jenkins, John
Jensel, Mark Jensen, S. D. J evremovic, ]. Paul Jewell, Nancy Jianakoplos, Frederick Johnson, David
Jones, Lamar B. Jones, Paul A. Joray, Daniel A. Joseph, Craig Justice, M. James Kahiga, Septimus
Kaikai, Michael Kaluya, Lillian Kamal, Mohammad Kasraian, D evajyoti Kataky, Timothy R. Keely,
Ziad Keilany, Norman F. Keiser, Michele Kegley, Sukanya Kemp, Brian Kench, Randall G. Kesselring,
Alan Kessler, E. D. Key, Saleem Khan, M. Barbara Killen, Bruce Kimzey, Terrence Kina!, Philip
G. King, E. R. Kittrell , David Klingman, Charles Knapp, Jerry Knarr, Tori Knight, Faik Koray, Janet
Koscianski, Dennis Lee Kovach, Marie Kratochvil, Richard W Kreissle, Peter Kressler, Paul ]. Kubik,
Michael Kupilik, Margaret Landman, Richard LaNear, Larry Landrum, Keith Langford, Theresa
Laughlin, James M. Leaman, Anthony T. Lee, Jim Lee, Loren Lee, Bozena Leven, Donald Lien,
George Lieu, Stephen E. Lile, Jane Lopus, Lawrence W Lovick, Marty Ludlum, William Kent Lutz,
Brian Lynch, Brian Madie, Michael Machiorlatti, Laura Maghoney, G. Dirk Mateer, John McArthur,
Robert McAuliffe, James C. McBrearty, Howard J. McBride, Bruce McClung, Jeremy McCracken, John
McDowell, E. S. McKuskey, James ]. McLain, Kevin McWoodson, John L. Madden, Mary Lou
Madden, John Marangos, Dan Marburger, G len Marston, John M. Martin, Paul]. Mascotti, James
D. Mason, Paul M. Mason, Tom Mathew, Warren Matthews, Akbar Marvasti, Pete Mavrokordatos,
Fred May, G. Hartley Mellish, Mike Melvin, Diego Mendez-Carbajo, Dan C. Messerschmidt, Michael
Metzger, Charles Meyrick, Herbert C. Milikien, Joel C. Millonzi, Glenn Milner, Ida Mirzaie, D aniel
Mizak, Khan Mohabbat, Thomas Molloy, William H. Moon, Margaret D. Moore, William E. Morgan,
Stephen Morrell, Irving Morrissett, James W. Moser, T haddeaus Mounkurai, Kevin Murphy, Martin
F. Murray, Dense! L. Myers, George L. Nagy, Solomon Namala, Ronald M. Nate, Jerome Neadly,
James E. Needham, Claron Nelson, Douglas Nettleton, William Nook, Gerald T. O'Boyle, Greg
Okoro, Dr. Larry Olanrewaju, Richard E. O'Neill, Lucian T. Orlowski, Diane S. Osborne, Joan
Osborne, Melissa A. Osborne, James O 'Toole, Tomi Ovaska, Lawrence Overlan, Benny E. Overton, Jan
Palmer, Zuohong Pan, Gerald Parker, Ginger Parker, Randall E. Parker, Mohammed Partapurwala,
Kenneth Parzych, Elizabeth Patch, Joseph Patton, Norm Paul, Teddi Paulson, Wesley Payne, Raymond
A. Pepin, Martin M. Perline, Timothy Perri, Jerry Petr, Maurice Pfannesteil, Van Thi Hong Pham,
Chris Phillips, James Phillips, Raymond]. Phillips, I. James Pickl, Bruce Pietrykowski, D ennis Placone,
Mannie Poen, W illiam L. Polvent, Robert Posatko, Greg Pratt, Leila]. Pratt, Steven Pressman, Rick
Pretzsch, Renee Prim, Robert E. Pulsinelli, Rod D. Raehsler, Kambriz Raffiee, Sandra Rahman,
Jaishankar Raman, John Rapp, Richard Rawlins, Gautam Raychaudhuri, Kenneth Rebeck, Ron Reddall,
Mitchell Redlo, Annette Redmon, Charles Reichhelu, Robert S. Rippey, Charles Roberts, Ray
C. Roberts, Leila Angelica Rodemann, Richard Romano, Judy Roobian-Mohr, Duane Rosa, Richard
Rosenberg, Larry Ross, Barbara Ross-Pfeiffer, Marina Rosser, Philip Rothman, John Roufagalas,
Stephen Rubb, Henry Ryder, Lewis Sage, Basel Saleh, Patricia Sanderson, Thomas N. Schaap, William
A. Schaeffer, William Schamoe, David Schauer, A. C. Schlenker, David Schlow, Paul Schoofs, Scott
]. Schroeder, Bill Schweizer, William Scott, Dan Segebarth, Paul Seidenstat, Swapan Sen, Augustus
Shackelford, Richard Sherman Jr., Liang-rong Shiau, Gail Shields, Jeff Shmidl, David Shorow, Vishwa
Shukla, R.]. Sidwell, Jonathan Silberman, David E. Sisk, Alden Smith, Garvin Smith, Howard
F. Smith, Lynn A. Smith, Phil Smith, William Doyle Smith, Brian Sommer, Lee Spector, George Spiva,
Richard L. Sprinkle, Alan Stafford, Amanda Stallings-Wood, Herbert F. Steeper, Diane L. Stehman,
Columbus Stephens, William Stine, Allen D. Stone, Daniel Strang, Jialu Streeter, Osman Suliman,
]. M. Sullivan, Rebecca Summary, Terry Sutton, Joseph L. Swaffar, Thomas Swanke, Manjuri Talukdar,
Frank D. Taylor, Ian Taylor, Daniel Teferra, Lea Templer, Gary Theige, Dave Thiessen, Robert
P. Thomas, Deborah Thorsen, Richard Trieff, George Troxler, William T. Trulove, William
N . Trumbull, Patricia Turco, Arianne K. Turner, Kay Unger, Anthony Uremovic, Ezgi U zel, John
Vahaly, Jim Van Beek, David Van Hoose, Lee]. Van Scyoc, Roy Van Ti!, Reuben Veliz, Sharmila
Vishwasrao, Craig Walker, Robert F. Wallace, Henry C. Wallich, J acqueline Ward, Milledge Weathers,
Ethel C. Weeks, Roger E. Wehr, Don Weimer, Robert G . Welch, Terence West, James Wetzel, Wylie
Whalthall, James H . Wheeler, Everett E. White, Michael D . White, Oxana Wieland, Mark
A. Wilkening, Raburn M . Williams, James W illis, George W ilson, Travis Wilson, Mark Wohar, Ken
Woodward, Tim Wulf, Peter R. Wyman, Whitney Yamamura, Donald Yankovic, Alex Yguado, Paul
Young, Shik Young, Michael Youngblood, Mohammed Zaheer, Ed Zajicek, Charles Zalonka, Sourushe
Zandvakili, Paul Zarembka, Erik Zemljic, George K. Zestos, William J . Zimmer, Jr.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XV

For this 20th edition of Economics Today, I was fortunate to again h ave production management
masterfully managed by Kathy Smith, working for SPi Global. She remains at the top of her field by
making sure that every correction is made, every graph is perfect, and every table remains error free.
I 'm also thankful for the impact of the following: Shweta Jain, content producer; C hris De] ohn, content
strategy manager; Thomas Hayward, content strategy analyst; Samantha Lewis, product manager; and
Adrienne D'Ambrosio, director of product management. I'd also like to thank Ashley DePace and Nayke
Heine on their work on the marketing plans.
To my faithful, long-standing, and amazingly accurate "super reviewer,'' Professor Dan Benjamin, a
heartfelt thank you from me. I am sure that those of you reading this text will recognize h ow error-free
it is, and Professor Benjamin is largely responsible for that level of detail. To my assistant, Sue Jasin, who
was responsible for the many drafts of all of the updated revisions, thank you for "burning the midnight
oil."
I welcome ideas and criticisms from both professors and students alike.
R.L.M.
This page intentionally left blank
 1 The Nature of Economics

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this chapter, you should be
able to:
m Define econom ics and discuss t he
difference between microeconom ics and
macroeconomics
m Ident ify the t hree basic economic
quest ions and the two opposing set s of
answers
m Eval uate t he role that rat ional self-i nterest
plays in economic analysis
I
n 1950, t he typica l woman who married did so at
age 20. Now, however, she is wa it ing until age 27.
Furthermore, a larger number of women are choosing
not to marry at all. Contributing to delayed marriages
and nonmarriages is t he fact that fewer women are
agreeing to marry non-co llege-ed ucated men emp loyed
by or seeking to work in manufact uring industries. In
t his chapter, you wil l learn that dimin ished prospects
for male employment by ma nufacturing firms and
decreased male earn ings at these companies have
provided women wit h economic incentives t hat reduce

m Exp lain why economics is a science

t heir wi ll ingness to marry these men. Indeed, you will
learn t hat suc h incent ives play sign ificant roles in most
m Distinguish between positive and
normative economics
dec isions made by all ind ividua ls, includ ing choices
about when and whether to marry.

1
2 PART 1 I INTRODUCTION
Incentives
Rewards or penalties for engaging in
a particular activity.
m Define econom ics and
discuss the difference
between m icroeconom ics and
macroeconom ics
Economics
The study of how people allocate their
limited resources to satisfy their
unlimited wants.
Resources
Things used to produce goods and services
to satisfy people's wants.
Wants
What people would buy if their incomes
were unlimited.
DID YOU KNOW THAT...
more than one out of every fou r vehicles on Russian roads is equipped with a dashboard camera? Russian resi-
dents likely are no more tech savvy than residents of many other nations, but they have stronger incentives to
document auto accidents that may occur while they are driving. Russia's Arctic winter conditions and poor
maintenance of many of its roads contribute to large numbers of accidents that drivers might wish to document
in case thei r insurers question whether they or other drivers were at fault. In addition, Russian Highway Patrol
officers commonly stop drivers who have committed no driving offenses and threaten them with tickets unless
they pay bribes. Furthermore, criminal organizations commonly stage accidents or provide damaged vehicles as
evidence for fil ing insurance claims against motorists. Taken together, the prevalence of icy roads, police cor-
ruption, and faked accident claims gives drivers in Russia particularly strong incentives to install dashboa rd
cameras and compile video documentation of every second their veh icles spend on the road.
In th is chapter, you will learn why contemplating the nature of self-interested responses to incentives is
the starting point for analyzing choices peop le make in all walks of life. After all, how much time you devote
to studying economics in th is introductory course depends in part on the incentives established by your
instructor's grading system. As you will see, self-interest and incentives are the underpinnings for all the
decisions you and others around you make each day.
The Power of Economic Analysis
Simply knowing that self-interest and incentives are central to any decision-making
process is not sufficient for predicting the choices that people will actually make. You
also have to develop a framework that will allow you to analyze solutions to each
economic problem. You must do so whether you are trying to decide how much to
study, which courses to take, or to finish school, or whether you are evaluating if the
U .S. government should provide more grants to universities or raise taxes. The
framework that you will learn in this text is the economic way of thinking.
This framework gives you power-the power to reach informed judgments about
what is happening in the world. You can, of course, live your life without the power of
economic analysis as part of your analytical framework. Indeed, most people do.
Economists believe, though, that economic analysis can help you make better deci-
sions concerning your career, your education, financing your home, and other impor-
tant matters.
In the business world, the power of economic analysis can help increase your com-
petitive edge as an employee or as the owner of a business. As a voter, for the rest of
your life you will be asked to make judgments about policies that are advocated by
political parties. Many of these policies will deal with questions related to interna-
tional economics, such as whether the U.S. government should encourage or discour-
age immigration or restrict other countries from selling their goods here.
Defining Economics
Economics is part of the social sciences and, as such, seeks explanations of real events.
All social sciences analyze human behavior, as opposed to the physical sciences, which
generally analyze the behavior of electrons, atoms, and other nonhuman phenomena.
Economics is the st.udy of how people allocate their limited resources in an
attempt to satisfY their unlimited wants. As such, economics is the st.udy ofhow
people make choices.
To understand this definition fully, two other words need explaining: resources and
wants. Resources are things that have value and, more specifically, are used to pro-
duce goods and services that satisfy people's wants. Wants are all of the items that
people would purchase if they had unlimited income.
 CHAPTER 1 I The Nature of Economics 3
Whenever an individual, a business, or a nation faces alternatives, a choice must be
made, and economics helps us study how those choices are made. For example, you
have to choose how to spend your limited income. You also have to choose how to
spend your limited time. You may have to choose how many of your company's limited
resources to allocate to advertising and how many to allocate to new-product research.
In economics, we examine situations in which individuals choose how to do things,
when to do things, and with whom to do them. Ultimately, the purpose of economics
is to explain choices.

Microeconomics versus Macroeconomics

Economics is typically divided into two types of analysis: microeconomics and Microeconomics
macroeconomics. The study of decision making undertaken
by individua ls (or households) and by
firms.
Microeconomics is the part ofeconomic analysis that studies decision making
undertaken by individuals (or households) and by firms. It is like looking Macroeconomics
through a microscope to focus on the small parts of our economy. The study of the behavior of the economy
as a whole, including such economywide
phenomena as changes in unemployment,
Macroeconomics is the part of economic analysis that studies the behavior ofthe the general price level, and national
economy as a whole. It deals with economywide phenomena such as changes in income.
unemployment, in the general price level, and in national income.

Microeconomic analysis, for example, is concerned with the effects of changes in the
price of gasoline relative to that of other energy sources. It examines the effects of new
taxes on a specific product or industry. If the government establishes new health care
regulations, how individual firms and consumers will react to those regulations would
be in the realm of microeconomics. The effects of higher wages brought about by an
effective union strike would also be analyzed using the tools of microeconomics.
In contrast, issues such as the rate of inflation, the amount of economywide unem-
ployment, and the yearly growth in the output of goods and services in the nation all
fall into the realm of macroeconomic analysis. In other words, macroeconomics deals
with aggregates, or totals-such as total output in an economy. Aggregates
Be aware, however, of the blending of microeconomics and macroeconomics in Total amounts or quantities. Aggregate
modern economic theory. Modern economists are increasingly using microeconomic demand, for example, is total pla nned
expenditures throughout a nation.
analysis- the study of decision making by individuals and by firms- as the basis of
macroeconomic analysis. They do this because even though macroeconomic analysis
focuses on aggregates, those aggregates are the result of choices made by individuals
and firms.
Recent technological developments have contributed further to the theoretical
blending of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Increasingly, businesses, govern-
ments, and even individuals are turning to artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, Artificial intelligence (Al) technologies
which are digital-app-based or -assisted tools utilized in making and implementing The development and implementation of
decisions. AI technologies often implement sophisticated and typically automated methods of utilizing automated data-
analytics techn iques, mach ine learning, or
data-analytics methods for working with very substantial volumes of information, com-
virtual- or augmented-reality techniques to
monly known as big data, to reveal previously hidden relationships. In the past, people examine and evaluate information in an
applied their skills in using basic statistical techniques to examine and learn from large effort to help consumers, businesses, and
sets of data. To a growing extent, however, people now have adopted machine learning, governments to make decisions.
or the application of simple or sophisticated AI-guided programming of digital devices,
to search through massive bodies of data that human minds might struggle to compre-
hend. Increasingly, AI technologies also entail the use of virtual-reality techniques, which
allow people to view or perceive fully artificial environments, or augmented-reality
methods, which enable individuals to observe virtual overlays of information alongside
real images. With such AI technologies, businesses, governments, and consumers can
make more informed decisions. Furthermore, a growing number of economists also
are employing AI technologies to examine people's decision making and choices.
Why does the application of big data analytics potentially have microeconomic and
macroeconomic implications?
4 PART 1 I INTRODUCTION

Al DECISION MAKING THROUGH DATA

Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Applications
Al technologies ca n be appl ied to both microeconomic and macroeco-
nomi c issues. At the level of a com pany, for instance, data-analytics
techniques ca n be appl ied to vast amounts of information on prices of
products, quality features, num bers of units, amounts purchased, and
so on. For exa mple, U.S. companies, such as Amazon, Apple, and Google,
currently are spendin g ten s of billions of dollars per year on digital
equipment used to conduct automated data ana lytics. Information about
prices, characteristics, and quantities purchased can be subjected to a
variety of automated data-analytics techniques. Even though substan-
ti al volumes of individual bits of information may be contained in such
a large set of data , the scope of such an eva luation would be micro
economic.
In contrast, practitioners of bi g data analytics use the techniques to
contemplate large sets of data involving economic aggregates. For ex-
ample, central banks interested in coordinating their policies must
evaluate considera ble information encompassing annual price levels,
total outputs of goods and services, levels of em ployment of workers, and
so on for many of the world's economies over a lengthy interva l. The
nature of analyzing such very large sets of data via automated data-
analytics techniques is macro econom ic.
In spite of the differences in microeconomic and macroeconomic
scopes of various large sets of data, the methods of big data analytics
used to study the datasets are similar. This fact helps to explain why the
advent of Al technologies has tended to increase the blending of micro-
economics and macroeconom ics.
FOR CRITICAL THINKING
Why do you suppose that economists might sometimes disagree about
whether to classify as a microeconomic or macroeconomic endeavor the
application of big data analytics to massive volumes of information
encompassing virtually all of a nation's industries and interactions
among those industries?
Sources are listed at the end of this chapter.

I!) Id entify the th ree The Three Basic Economic Questions and
basic eco nom ic questions
and the two oppos ing sets Two Opposing Sets of Answers
of answers
In every nation, three fundamental questions must be addressed irrespective of the
form of its government or who h eads that government, how rich or how poor th e
Economic system n ation may be, or wh at type of economic system-the institutional mechanism
A society's institutional mechanism for through which resources are utilized to satisfy human wants-has been chosen.
determini ng th e way scarce resou rces are
used to satisfy human desires.
The Three Basic Questions
The three fundamental questions of economics concern the problem of how to allo-
cate society's scarce resources:

ECONOMICS IN YOUR LIFE
To contemplate a recent example
from U.S. housing finance regarding
choosing among answers to the
three basic economic questions,
take a look at Government
Involvement Enables a Private
U.S. Housing Finance Company to
Provide " Cheap" Loans on page 12.
1. What and how much will be produced? Some mechanism must exist for determining
which items will be produced while others remain inventors' pipe dreams or indi-
viduals' unfulfilled desires.
2. How will items be produced? T here are many ways to produce a desired item. It is
possible to use more labor and fewer m achines, or vice versa. It is possible, for
instan ce, to produce an item with an aim to maximize th e number of people
employed. Alternatively, an item may be produced with an aim to minimize the
total expenses that members of society incur. Somehow, a decision must be made
about the mix of resources used in production, the way in which they are organized,
and how they are brought together at a particular location .
3. For whom will items be produced? Once an item is produced, who should be able to
obtain it? People use scarce resources to produce any item, so typically people value
access to that item. T hus, determining a mechanism for distributing produced
items is a crucial issue for any society.
Now that you know the questions an economic system must answer, how do cur-
rent systems actually an swer them?
 CHAPTER 1 I The Nature of Economics 5
Two Opposing Sets of Answers
At any point in time, every nation has its own economic system. How a nation's resi-
dents go about answering the three basic economic questions depends on that nation's
economic system.

Centralized Command and Control Throughout history, one common type of eco-
nomic system has been command and control (also called central planning). Such a system
is operated by a centralized authority, such as a king or queen, a dictator, a central
government, or some other type of authority. Such an entity assumes responsibility
for addressing fundamental economic issues. Under command and control, this
authority decides what items to produce and how many, determines how the scarce
resources will be organized in the items' production, and identifies who will be able to
obtain the items.
For instance, in a command-and-control economic system, a government
might decide that particular types of automobiles ought to be produced in certain
numbers. The government might issue specific rules for how to manage the pro-
duction of these vehicles, or it might even establish ownership over those resources
so that it can make all such resource allocation decisions directly. Finally, the
government may then decide who will be authorized to purchase or otherwise
utilize the vehicles.

The Price System The alternative to command and control is the price system (also
called a market system), which is a shorthand term describing an economic system that
answers the three basic economic questions via decentralized decision making. Under
a pure price system, individuals and families own all of the scarce resources used in
production. Consequently, choices about what and how many items to produce are
left to private parties to determine on their own initiative, as are decisions about how
to go about producing those items. Furthermore, individuals and families choose how
to allocate their own incomes to obtain the produced items at prices established via
privately organized mechanisms.
In the price system, which you will learn about in considerable detail in later
chapters, prices define the terms under which people agree to make exchanges. Prices
signal to everyone within a price system which resources are relatively scarce and
which are relatively abundant. This signaling aspect of the price system provides infor-
mation to individual buyers and sellers about what and h ow many items should be
produced, how production of items should be organized, and who will choose to buy
the produced items.
Thus, in a price system, individuals and families own the facilities used to produce
automobiles. They decide which types of automobiles to produce, how many of them
to produce, and how to bring labor and machines together within their facilities to
generate the desired production. Other individuals and families decide how much of
their earnings they wish to spend on automobiles.

Mixed Economic Systems By and large, the economic systems of the world's nations
are mixed economic systems that incorporate aspects of both centralized command
and control and a decentralized price system. At any given time, some nations lean
toward centralized mechanisms of command and control and allow relatively little
scope for decentralized decision making. At the same time, other nations limit the
extent to which a central authority dictates answers to the three basic economic ques-
tions, leaving people mostly free to utilize a decentralized price system to generate
their own answers.
A given country may reach different decisions at different times about how much to
rely on command and control versus a price system to answer its three basic economic
questions. Until 2008, for instance, U.S. residents preferred to rely mainly on a decen-
tralized price system to decide which and how many financial services to produce and
6 PART 1 I INTRODUCTION
DJ Evaluate the role that
rationa l self-interest plays i n
econom ic analysis
Rationality assumption
The assumption that people do not
intentionally make decisions that would
leave them worse off.
how to produce them. During some years since then, the U.S. government has owned
substantial fractions of financial firms and hence has exerted considerable command-
and-control authority over production of financial services.
The Economic Approach: Systematic Decisions
Economists assume that individuals act as if they systematically pursue self-motivated
interests and respond predictably to perceived opportunities to attain those interests.
This central insight of economics was first clearly articulated by Adam Smith in 1776.
Smith wrote in his most famous book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
Wealth ofNations, that "it is not from the benevolence [good will] of the butcher, the
brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own
interest." Thus, the typical person about whom economists make behavioral predic-
tions is assumed to act as though he or she systematically pursues self-motivated
interest.
The Rationality Assumption
The rationality assumption of economics, simply stated, is as follows:
We assume that individuals do not intentionally make decisions that would leave
them worse off.
The distinction here is between what people may think-the realm of psychology
and psychiatry and perhaps sociology-and what they do . Economics does not
involve itself in analyzing individual or group thought processes. Economics looks at
what people actually do in life with their limited resources . It does little good to
criticize the rationality assumption by stating, "Nobody thinks that way" or "I never
think that way" or "How unrealistic! That's as irrational as anyone can get!" In a
world in which people can be atypical in countless ways, economists find it useful to
concentrate on discovering the baseline. Knowing what happens on average is a
good place to start. In this way, we avoid building our thinking on exceptions rather
than on reality.
Take the example of driving. When you consider passing another car on a two-lane
highway with oncoming traffic, you have to make very quick decisions: You must esti-
mate the speed of the car that you are going to pass, the speed of the oncoming cars,
the distance between your car and the oncoming cars, and your car's potential rate of
acceleration. If we were to apply a model to your behavior, we would use the rules of
calculus. In actual fact, you and most other drivers in such a situation do not actually
think of using the rules of calculus, but to predict your behavior, we could make the
prediction as if you understood those rules.
Responding to Incentives
If it can be assumed that individuals never intentionally make decisions that would
leave them worse off, then they will respond to changes in incentives. Indeed, much of
human behavior can be explained in terms of how individuals respond to changing
incentives over time.
Schoolchildren are motivated to do better by a variety of incentive systems, rang-
ing from gold stars and certificates of achievement when they are young, to better
grades with accompanying promises of a "better life" as they get older. Of course,
negative incentives affect our behavior, too. Penalties, punishments, and other
forms of negative incentives can raise the total cost of engaging in various
activities.
How have earnings-based and tuition-expense-related incentives of pursuing a col-
lege degree changed in recent years?
 CHAPTER 1 I The Nature of Economics 7

EXAMPLE
The Altered Incentives Confronting Prospective College Students

In 1975, an individual considering enrolling in a college and success-
fully completing about four years of coursework required for a bachelor's
degree cou ld anticipate an inflation-adjusted an nual payoff of about
$20,000 every year following graduation. By 2000, this inflation-
adjusted annual earnings incentive to earn a co llege degree had
increased to about $33,000. This substantial jump in average annual
income helps to explain why the percentage of U.S. adults holding col-
lege degrees stead ily increased from 13 percent in 1975 to 33 percent
today.
Since 2000, however, the average inflation-adjusted annual earn-
ings ga in from obta ining a college degree has dropped to about
$29,500 per year. Accompanying thi s 11 percent decrease in the antici-
pated earnings payoff from a college degree has been an inflation-
adjusted increase in average tuition and fees of 75 percent over the
same interval. Thus, today's dollars-and-cents incentives to pu rsue a
college degree are much weaker than was true a generation ago.
REAL APPLICATION
Sometimes adults tell young people to "get all the education you can
get. " Does that mean you should necessarily obtain an advanced degree?
Sources are listed at the end of this chapter.

Defining Self-Interest
Self-interest does not always mean increasing one's wealth measured in dollars and
cents. We assume that individuals seek many goals, not just increased wealth measured
in monetary terms. Thus, the self-interest part of our economic-person assumption
includes goals relating to prestige, friendship, love, power, helping others, creating
works of art, and many other matters. We can also think in terms of enlightened self-
interest, whereby individuals, in the pursuit of what makes them better off, also
achieve the betterment of others around them. In brief, individuals are assumed to
want the ability to further their goals by making decisions about how items around
them are used. The head of a charitable organization usually will not turn down an
additional contribution, because accepting the funds yields control over how they are
used, even though their use is for other people's benefit.
Does the fact that many people donate to charity necessarily imply that the donors
only wish to help others?

BEHAVIORAL EXAMPLE
Assessing Whether Charitable Donations Reflect Caring for Others or for Oneself

When contemplating making a charitable donation, people often consider
two motivations. The first is a desireto help others. The second is the pos-
sibility of benefiting from incentives that governments provide to those
who make donations, such as certain tax deductions granted to charitable
donors by tax authorities.
Three behavioral economists- Eiji Yamamura of Seinan Gaku in Univer-
sity, Yoshiro Tsutsui of Kanan University, and Furnia Ohtake of Osaka
University-have studied how these motivations interacted in Japan during
the years following an unusually damaging ea rthquake in the eastern part
of the country. Under Japan's tax laws, people were allowed to respond to
the earthquake by directing portions of their local tax payments, potentially
supplemented with extra donations, to municipalities that suffered most
from the quake. At the same time, however, municipal governments in
Japan could compete for directed tax payments and donations by offering
donors reciprocal gifts, including gift cards, digital devices, home appli-
ances, jewelry, and even gold or si lver.
The researchers find evidence that Japan's taxpayers definitely
responded to the earthquake in a caring manner by directing more taxes
and additional donations to earthquake-stricken municipalities. Yet
directed taxes and donations to regions whose governments offered gifts
were more than six times larger than those that taxpayers directed to areas
in which governments offered no gifts. Theresearchers conclude that allow-
ing governments unaffected by the earthquake to offer reciprocal gifts
reduced directed taxes and donations to governments of regions damaged
by the quake. Thus, in the absence of governmental reciprocal gifts to
donors, even more funds would have reached parts of Japan that suffered
the greatest harm from the earthquake.
FOR CRITICAL THINKING
How might the fact that the U.S. government allows larger tax deductions
for some charitable donations than for others affect U.S. taxpayers' incen-
tives about how much to donate and to whom they direct their
donations?
Sources are listed at the end of this chapter.
8 PART 1 I INTRODUCTION

I!) Exp lain why economics Economics as a Science

is a sc ience
Models, or theories
Simplified representations of the real worl d
used as the basis for predictions or
explanations.
Variables
Choices that people make or other human
outcomes that are subject to change.
Economics is a social science that employs the same kinds of methods used in other
sciences, such as biology, physics, and chemistry. Like these other sciences, economics
uses models, or theories. Economic models, or theories, are simplified representa-
tions of the real world that we use to h elp us understand, explain, and predict eco-
nomic phenomena in the real world. There are, of course, differences between
sciences. Social scientists, including economists, tend to make less use of laboratory
experiments in which changes in var iables- human choices or outcomes subject to
change- are studied under controlled conditions. Social scientists often test their
models, or theories, by examining what has already happened in the real world.

Models and Realism

At the outset it must be emphasized that no model in any science, and therefore no
economic model, is complete in the sense that it captures every detail or interrelation-
ship that exists. Indeed, a model, by definition, is an abstraction from reality. It is
conceptually impossible to construct a perfectly complete realistic model. For exam-
ple, in physics we cannot account for every molecule and its position and certainly not
for every atom and subatomic particle. Not only is such a model unreasonably expen-
sive to build, but working with it would be impossibly complex.
The nature of scientific model building is that the model should capture only the
essential relationships that are sufficient to analyze the particular problem or answer
the particular question with which we are concerned. An economic model cannot be
faulted as unrealistic simply because it does not represent every detail of the real world. A map
of a city that shows only major streets is not faulty if, in fact, all you wish to know is
how to pass through the city using major streets. As long as a model is able to shed
light on the central issue at hand or forces at work, it may be useful.
A map is the quintessential model. It is always a simplified representation. It is
always unrealistic. It is, however, also useful in making predictions about the world. If
the model- the map- predicts that when you take Campus Avenue to the north, you
always run into the campus, that is a prediction. If a simple model can explain observed
behavior in repeated settings just as well as a complex model, the simple model has
some value and is probably easier to use.

Assumptions
Every model, or theory, must be based on a set of assumptions. Assumptions define
the array of circumstances in which our model is most likely to be applicable. When
some people predicted that sailing ships would fall off the edge of the earth, they used
the assumption that the earth was flat. Columbus did not accept the implications of
such a model because h e did not accept its assumptions. He assumed that the world
was round. The real-world test of his own model refuted the flat-earth model.
Indirectly, then, it was a test of the assumption of the flat-earth model.
Is it possible to use our knowledge about assumptions to understand why driving
directions sometimes contain very few details?

EXAMPLE
Getting Directions

Assumptions are a shorthand for rea lity. Imagine that you have decided
to drive from your home in San Diego to downtown San Francisco.
Because you have never driven this route, you dec ide to use a trave l-
planner device such as global-position ing-system equipment.
When you ask for directions, the electronic trave l planne r co uld
give yo u a set of detailed maps that shows eac h city through which
yo u wi ll t rave l- Oceanside , San Clemente, Irvine, Anaheim , Los
Angeles, Bakersfie ld, Modesto, and so on-with the ind ividual
maps show ing you exactly how the freeway th reads through each of
these cities. You would get a nearly complete descript ion of real ity
because the GPS travel planner will not have used many simp lifying
assumptions. It is more likely, however, that t he travel planne r will
 CHAPTER 1 I The Nature of Economics 9
simply say, "Get on Interstate 5 going north. Stay on it for about 500 miles. Francisco-they focus on what is relevant to the problem at hand
Follow t he signs for San Francisco. After crossing the toll bridge, and omit what is not.
take any exit marked 'Downtown. " ' By omitti ng al l of the trivia l
details, the travel plan ner has told you all that you real ly need and FOR CRITICAL THINKING
want to know. The mode ls you wi ll be using in this text are sim ilar to In what way do small talk and gossip represent the use of simplifying
the simpl ified directions on how to drive from San Diego to San assumptions?

The Ceteris Paribus Assumption: All Other Things Being Equal Everything in the world
seems to relate in some way to everything else in the world. It would be impossible to
isolate the effects of changes in one variable on another variable if we always had to
worry about the many other variables that might also enter the analysis. Similar to
other sciences, economics uses the ceteris paribus assumption. Ceteris paribus means Ceteris paribus [KAY-ter-us
"other things constant" or "other things equal." PEAR-uh-bus] assumption
Consider an example taken from economics. One of the most important determi- The assumption that nothing changes
except the fa ctor or factors bei ng studied.
nants of how much of a particular product a family buys is how expensive that product
is relative to other products. We know that in addition to relative prices, other factors
influence decisions about making purchases. Some of them have to do with income,
others with tastes, and yet others with custom and religious beliefs. Whatever these
other factors are, we hold them constant when we look at the relationship between
changes in prices and changes in how much of a given product people will purchase.

Deciding on the Usefulness of a Model

We generally do not attempt to determine the usefulness, or "goodness," of a model
by evaluating how realistic its assumptions are. Rather, we consider a model "good" if
it yields usable predictions that are supported by real-world observations. In other
words, can we use the model to predict what will happen in the world around us? Does
th e model provide useful implications about how things happen in our world?
Once we have determined that the model may be useful in predicting real-world phe-
nomena, the scientific approach to the analysis of the world around us requires that we
consider evidence. Evidence is used to test the usefulness of a model. This is why we call
economics an empirical science. Empirical means that evidence (data) is looked at to see Empirical
whether we are right. Economists are often engaged in empirically testing their models. Relying on real-world data in eva luating
the usefulness of a model.
Models of Behavior, Not Thought Processes
Take special note of the fact that economists' models do not relate to the way people
think. Economic models predict how people act and what they do in life with their
limited resources. The economist does not attempt to predict how people will think
about a particular topic, such as a higher price of oil products, accelerated inflation, or
higher taxes. Rather, the task at hand is to predict how people will behave, which may
be quite different from what they say they will do (much to the consternation of poll
takers and market researchers). Thus, people's declared preferences are generally of
little use in testing economic theories, which aim to explain and predict people's
revealed preferences. The people involved in examining thought processes are psy-
chologists and psychiatrists, not typically economists.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ...

people's actual reactions to incentives differ from how they claim they would respond in answers to survey questions?
When businesses contemplate actions, such as price increases, that to such questions is that they would halt entirely their consumption of
alter people's incentives to consume a product, the firms sometimes such services. In fact, however, what typica lly occurs is that, although
conduct surveys to try to gauge how purchases might be affected. For the tota l quantity of banking services purchased declines after a fee is
instance, large banks often hire pub lic-opinion firms to survey people imposed, many people pay the new fee and continue to utilize the ser-
about how they think they would respond to a new fee on banking ser- vices. Hence, the declared preferences of consumers do not necessarily
vices previously provided at no cha rge. A common response people give accord with their true preferences.
10 PART 1 I INTRODUCTION
Behavioral economics
An approach to the study of consumer
behavior that emphasizes psychological
limitations and complications that
potentially interfere with rational decision
making.
Bounded rationality
The hypothesis that people are nearly,
but not fully, rational, so that they cannot
examine every possible choice available
to them but instead use simple rules of
thumb to sort among the alternatives
that happen to occur to them.
m Distinguish between
posit ive and normat ive
econom ics
\.
Behavioral Economics and Bounded Rationality
In recent years, some economists have proposed paying more attention to psycholo-
gists and psychiatrists. They have suggested an alternative approach to economic anal-
ysis. Their approach, known as beh avioral economics, examines consumer behavior
in the face of psychological limitations and complications that may interfere with
rational decision making.
Bounded Rationality Proponents of behavioral economics suggest that traditional
economic models assume that people exhibit three "unrealistic" characteristics:
1. Unbounded selfishness. People are interested only in their own satisfaction.
2. Unbounded willpower. Their choices are always consistent with their long-term goals.
3. Unbounded rationality. They are able to consider every relevant choice.
As an alternative, advocates of behavioral economics have proposed replacing the
rationality assumption with the assumption of b ounded ration ality, which assumes
that people cannot examine and think through every possible choice they confront. As
a consequence, behavioral economists suggest, individuals cannot always pursue, on
their own, their best long-term personal interests. They sometimes require help.
Rules of Thumb A key behavioral implication of the bounded rationality assumption is
that people should use so-called rules of thumb: Because every possible choice cannot
be considered, an individual will tend to fall back on methods of making decisions that
are simpler than trying to sort through every possibility.
A problem confronting advocates ofbehavioral economics is that people who appear
to use rules of thumb may in fact behave as if they are fully rational. For instance, if a
person faces persistently predictable ranges of choices for a while, the individual may
rationally settle into repetitive behaviors that an outside observer might conclude to
be consistent with a rule of thumb. According to the bounded rationality assumption,
the person will continue to rely on a rule of thumb even if there is a major change in
the environment that the individual faces. Time and time again, however, economists
find that people respond to altered circumstances by fundamentally changing their
behaviors. Economists also generally observe that people make decisions that are con-
sistent with their own self-interest and long-term objectives.
Behavioral Economics Goes Mainstream The bulk of economic analysis continues to
rely on the rationality assumption as the basis for constructing economic models. In
most contexts, economists view the rationality assumption as a reasonable foundation
for constructing models intended to predict human decision making.
Nevertheless, a growing number of economists are exploring ways in which psycho-
logical elements might improve analysis of decision making by individual consumers,
firm owners and managers, and government officials. These economists are applying the
bounded rationality assumption to study effects of limitations on people's capabilities to
pursue self-interest, to assess how choices relate to long-term goals, or to consider all
available choices. As you will learn in later chapters, behavioral theories and methods are
being applied to the study of both microeconomic and macroeconomic issues.
Positive versus Normative Economics
Economics uses positive analysis, a value-free approach to inquiry. No subjective or
moral judgments enter into the analysis. Positive analysis relates to statements such as
"If A, then B." For example, "If the price of gasoline goes up relative to all other
prices, then the amount of it that people buy will fall." That is a positive economic
statement. It is a statement of what is. It is not a statement of anyone's value judgment
or subjective feelings.
 CHAPTER 1 I The Nature of Economics 11
Distinguishing between Positive and Normative Economics
For many problems analyzed in the "hard" sciences such as physics and chemistry, the
analyses are considered to be virtually value-free. After all, how can someone's values
enter into a theory of molecular behavior? Economists, however, face a different
problem. They deal with the behavior of individuals, not molecules. That makes it
more difficult to stick to what we consider to be value-free or positive economics Positive economics
without reference to our feelings . Analysis that is strictly limited to making
When our values are interjected into the analysis, we enter the realm of normative either purely descriptive statements or
scientific predictions. For example, "If A,
economics, involving normative analysis. A positive economic statement is "If the
then B." A statement of what is.
price of gas rises, people will buy less." If we add to that analysis the statement "so we
should not allow the price to go up," we have entered the realm of normative economics- Normative economics
we have expressed a value judgment. In fact, any time you see the word should, you will Analysis involving value judgments about
economic policies; relates to whether
know that values are entering into the discussion. Just remember that positive state- outcomes are good or bad. Astatement of
ments are concerned with what is, whereas normative statements are concerned with what ought to be.
what ought to be.
Each of us has a desire for different things. That means we have different values.
When we express a value judgment, we are simply saying what we prefer, like, or
desire. Because individual values are diverse, we expect-and indeed observe-that
people express widely varying value judgments about how the world ought to be.

A Warning: Recognize Normative Analysis

It is easy to define positive economics. It is quite another matter to catch all unla-
beled normative statements in a textbook, even though an author goes over the man-
uscript many times before it is printed or electronically created. Therefore, do not
get the impression that a textbook author will be able to keep all personal values out
of the book. They will slip through. In fact, the very choice of which topics to include
in an introductory textbook involves normative economics. There is no value-free
way to decide which topics to use in her or his textbook. The author's values ulti-
mately make a difference when choices have to be made. From your own standpoint,
though, you might want to be able to recognize when you are engaging in normative
as opposed to positive economic analysis. Reading this text will help equip you for
that task.

ECONOMICS AS IT APPLIES TO YOUR EVERYDAY LIFE

AND YOUR FUTURE
Throughout this new edition, you will find numerous examples of how to apply eco-
nomics to your everyday life and to decision making with respect to your career, your
family, and even how you analyze political statements. In other words, you will learn
economic skills that are practical.
In many of the examples and other features throughout the text, you will find a
Real Application question. These questions relate to:
• Career choices
• Managerial choices if you decide to go into business
• Future behavior in your household
• Voting choices
The next-to-last chapter-ending feature, called Economics in Your Life, always ends
with a Real Application question.
The last feature in each chapter, called Issues & Applications, will also always end
with a Real Application question.
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“Tittered the way he does and congratulated me on the good job I
had done. He’s a venomous old snake, but I don’t see that he can do
us any harm. There’s nothing left to do now but the detail work of
putting in the ditches.”
They talked for a few minutes about the irrigation project. The
engineer did not betray the least self-consciousness, but his mind,
too, was running on the last time he had seen Betty and the break
between them.
Reed was called away by one of the men to look at a sick horse.
Merrick’s steady gaze at once challenged Betty. “I got your letter.”
She was a good deal less composed than he. It disconcerted her to
know that she was blushing. That was a silly way to do, she told
herself. It annoyed her to give an exhibition of gaucherie.
“Yes,” she murmured.
“I’ve come to the conclusion that we made a mistake,” he said. “We
rushed into a decision too hastily.”
“Yes,” Betty agreed.
“You’re young. I hadn’t given enough consideration to that. Shall we
forget our differences and be as we were, Betty?”
“You don’t mean—be engaged?”
“That’s exactly what I mean.”
“Oh, Justin, I can’t. I thought you meant we’d made a mistake in ever
being engaged. We did. We’re not suited to each other.”
“I don’t agree with you. Your letter convinced me that we are.”
“I didn’t mean it that way at all,” she said unhappily. “We’re not,
Justin. Not a bit. I’m too—too kinda wild for you. You don’t want a
wife like me. If you knew, you wouldn’t want me a bit.”
“I’m the best judge of that,” he answered, smiling a little.
“But you don’t. I’d always be troubling you with my crazy ways.”
“No. It’s just that you’re young,” he insisted.
“It isn’t. I’m born that way. I’ll always be like that. Besides—” She
stopped, searching for a way to put it gently. “Besides, I’d want a
husband—if I ever marry at all—who needs me, who has to have
me, who can’t get along without me.”
“I need you,” he said.
“Oh no, you don’t. Not really. You think you do, maybe, but not in the
way I mean. You’re strong—self-sufficient. Please, I don’t mean it in
an uncomplimentary way. But you are big, you know. A wife would
have to fit into you—be just a—an important detail of your life. I
couldn’t do that. I’ve got to be everything to a man—help him—talk
over his difficulties with him—be just the biggest thing in the world to
him. I couldn’t really do anything for you. You’re complete. You don’t
need anything done for you. With or without me, you’re going to be
awf’ly successful. Oh, I know it sounds silly, but it isn’t.”
“Do you mean you like me less because I’m reliable and efficient and
—well, I take your own word—on the road to success? Would you
want to marry an irresponsible failure?”
The allusion was plain, and she did not like him better for it. None
the less, she recognized that this man, standing there in the quiet
arrogance of strength, had qualities admirable and worthy of great
respect. He was master of himself and, so far as one can be, of his
destinies. The cleft chin, the square jaw, the cold gray eyes so keen
and steady, expressed character, and of a kind that would take him
far. But it was a road she would not travel with him.
“No. But I’d like to know that I was a help to my husband in making
his success. You can’t understand, Justin. I’m not what you want—
not at all. If you saw me as I am, you’d know it. I’d always be
affronting your sense of the fitting thing. The right wife for you is one
who would sit at the head of your table well-dressed, handsome, and
charming, an evidence of your standing in the community. You know
—a gracious hostess, good at teas and bridge and that sort of thing.
You’re really a city man. I’m not a city woman and never shall be.”
To Merrick, clear-eyed in spite of his fondness for her, came a flash
of insight that told him she had been wiser than he. He could never
mould this wildling to his heart’s desire. Some day he would look
back on this episode and smile at it. But he had not reached that
state of philosophy yet. His vanity was still engaged, and more than
that—the last passionate flame of the boy in him that was being
sacrificed to ambition. He craved inordinately the willful charm of this
devastatingly sweet girl with the quick, disturbing eyes. She
represented to him certain values he was deliberately trampling
down, not because they did not seem to him good, but because they
warred with something that he wanted more. He had impossibly
dreamed that she might stay what she was and yet become
something different.
“Are you going to marry Hollister?” he asked.
She might reasonably have told him this was a private matter of her
own. She might have evaded the question. Instead, she told him the
truth.
“I don’t know.”
“Has he asked you?”
“No.”
“But you will if he does.”
“Yes.”
“Knowing what he has been, what he may be again?”
“Knowing what he is,” she corrected.
“Will girls never get over the folly of marrying men to reform them?”
he flung out impatiently.
“I’m not marrying him to reform him—that is, if I’m marrying him at
all, which isn’t likely. He does not need reforming.”
“How do you know he won’t slide back into his vice?” He answered
his own query. “You can’t know. There’s no way of knowing.”
“He won’t.” She said it quietly, with absolute conviction.
Her attitude tremendously irritated him. It was a reflection on all the
copybook virtues that had made him what he was. “Are you waiting
for this tramp, this drug fiend, to make up his mind whether he wants
to marry you or not?”
There was a spark of anger in her eye. She would not modify even
his phrasing. It could stand as he put it.
“Yes.”
“Sheer perversity.”
“Isn’t it?” she agreed, with dangerous sweetness.
He knew he was being punished for having indulged himself, as he
rarely did, in a display of temper. At once he took himself in hand.
“I’m serious about this, Betty. A girl has no right to take chances of
this sort. I grant you Hollister has qualities—splendid ones. But the
damning fact remains.”
Betty relented. He was human. He had cried out because he was
hurt. “I don’t think it remains, Justin. I’m absolutely convinced that it’s
conquered—what you call his vice.”
“What I call his vice! Wouldn’t every sane person call it that?”
“Not if they knew the circumstances. He was left with terrible pains in
the head after he was wounded. They gave him morphine—a lot of
it. He got to depending on it. The habit grew on him. Then he woke
up and shook it off. It’s to his credit rather than the reverse.”
“Even so. There’s a danger that he’ll go back to it.”
And again she denied it, with the certainty of one who does not need
evidence to bulwark an absolute assurance. “No danger at all.”
They were standing in front of the porch. Reed came toward them
from the stable. Both knew that the last word had been said.
Justin Merrick struggled with himself a moment, then held out his
hand. He did not want to be a poor loser.
“The best of luck, Betty,” he said.
Gladness gleamed in the soft eyes through which the eager spirit
seemed to yearn to comfort him.
“You, too, Justin,” she whispered.
 CHAPTER XXXV
BIRDS OF A FEATHER

They sat on opposite sides of a table, the food and dishes not yet
cleared away after their supper. A cheap kerosene lamp lit the room
insufficiently. The smoke from a ragged wick had entirely blackened
one side of the glass chimney. One of the men had cunningly utilized
this to throw the face of his companion into the light while his own
remained in shadow. His bleached eyes watched the emotions come
and go as they registered on the twisted, wolfish countenance of this
criminal on the dodge. He was playing on his evil instincts as a
musician does upon the strings of a violin.
“Me, I said right away, soon as I seen you, ‘This Cig’s no quitter; he’ll
go through.’ So I tied up with you. Game, an’ no mollycoddle. Tha’s
how I sized you up.”
“You got me right, Prowers. I’ll say so.”
The little man with the leathery face watched his victim. In the back
of his mind a dreadful thought had lodged and become fixed. He
would use for his purpose this vain and shallow crook, then blot him
out of life before he turned upon him.
“Don’t I know it? Cig ain’t roostin’ up here for his health, I says to
myself. Not none, by jiminy by jinks. He’s got business.”
“Business is right,” agreed the New Yorker. “An’ soon as it’s done, I
ain’t stickin’ around dis dump no more. I’m duckin’ for ’Frisco. But get
it straight, Prowers. I taken all de chances I’m gonna take alone.
See? An’ it’ll cost you two hundred iron men for my share of de job.”
“Not that much, Cig. We’ve both got our reasons for wantin’ to pull
this off. Clint Reed an’ his foreman ain’t exactly friends of yours. You
got yore own account to settle. But I’ll dig up a hundred. That’ll take
you to ’Frisco.”
Cig looked at his mild vis-à-vis sullenly. This harmless-looking old
fellow was his master in villainy, more thorough, more ruthless.
There were times when his bleached eyes became ice-coated, when
the New Yorker had sensed back of them the crouched threat of the
coiled rattlesnake. If he had known what Prowers was thinking now,
he would have shuddered.
“Some generous guy, youse are,” he sneered. “An’ how do I know
youse won’t rap on me—t’row me down when de rubes make de big
holler after de job?”
The old cattleman was at his suave mildest. No malignity showed in
his smile. “I don’t reckon I can give no written guarantee, Cig, but I
never sawed off trouble yet on a fellow takin’ the trail with me. Those
who have rode with me could tell you that.”
The crook from the East was uneasy. He did not know why. His
restlessness drove him to the door of the cabin from which he looked
out upon a cynical moon riding high above the tops of the pines. He
shivered. This bleak world of white appalled his city-cramped spirit. It
had been bad enough in summer. Now it was infinitely worse.
“Looks like there’s a hoodoo on me,” he growled. “It’s de Gawd-
forsaken country that puts a jinx on me. I’m losin’ me noive. Every
job I tackle is a flivver. After dis one, it’s me for de bright lights.”
“That’s right. A getaway for you, pronto.”
“When do we get busy?”
“To-night,” Prowers answered. “Merrick has left two watchmen at the
dam. One of ’em lives at Wild Horse. His wife’s sick. He got a call
half an hour ago sayin’ she was worse. He’s hittin’ the trail for town.”
“Leavin’ one guy on de job. Do we bump him off?”
“Not necessary. A quart of bootleg whiskey reached him this
afternoon. Time we get there, he’ll be dead to the world.”
“You sent de booze?”
“Merrick didn’t,” Prowers answered, with his impish grin.
“Sure he ain’t on de wagon?”
“Dead sure. He can’t leave it alone.”
“Looks like a lead pipe,” Cig admitted. “But de jinx on me—When I
gunned dat Tug Hollister I’d ’a’ swore I got him good. Nothin’ works.”
Jake could not quite forbear sarcasm. “You’d ought to take one o’
these here correspondence courses in efficiency. It’ll be different to-
night, though. I ain’t used to fallin’ down on anything I go after.”
“Meanin’ that I do?” Cig demanded sourly out of the corner of a
drooping mouth.
“Meanin’ you ain’t been lucky lately. Let it go at that.”
Prowers moved about making his preparations. The dynamite and
the fuses already made ready were put in a gunny-sack. The tools
were packed. Beneath his coat Jake put on a gaberdine vest, for it
was possible that the weather might turn cold.
Presently both men were ready. The cattleman blew out the light and
they passed from the cabin into the starry night.
They did not go direct to the dam. Prowers had in him too much of
the fox for that. He would not leave tracks in the snow that might
later take him to the penitentiary. Their footsteps followed the beaten
trail that ran from the cabin to a road meandering down into Paradise
Valley by the line of least resistance.
Half a mile from the point where they struck it, another road
deflected from this one, leading to Merrick’s camp at the Sweetwater
Dam. Into this they turned. The snow had been beaten down by
scores of passing feet. The top crust did not break beneath their
weights, so that no evidence would be left written there as to who
had made this midnight trip of destruction.
Cig’s eye took in the ghostly white hills and he shivered. “Gawd,
what a dump!” he groaned. His vocabulary was as limited as his
emotions. He could never get used to the barren grandeur of the
Rockies. They awed and oppressed him. They were too stark and
clean for him. He struggled with a sense of doom. In cities he never
thought of death, but premonitions of it had several times shaken his
ratlike courage since he had been here. Twice he had dreamed that
he was being buried in these hills and had wakened in a cold sweat
of horror. He made up his mind to “beat it” for the Pacific coast at
once.
They came down into the bowl where the dam was, skirting the edge
of the timber to attract as little attention as possible in case a
watchman should be on his beat. No sign of life disturbed the
stillness. They crept to the tents and made a hurried survey. In one
of them a man lay on a cot asleep. He was fully dressed. His arms
were outflung and he was breathing stertorously. A bottle, one third
full, stood on a small table close to the cot.
“Like I said, dead to the world,” Prowers commented.
He turned away. Cig swiftly snatched the bottle and slipped it inside
his coat. He wanted a drink or two pretty badly, and, like enough,
Prowers wouldn’t let him have them if he knew.
The two men crossed the dam-head to the gates.
“It’ll be here,” the cowman said as he put down the gunny-sack.
Before they set to work, Cig concealed his bottle, but in the course of
the hours that followed he made frequent visits to the spot where he
had hidden it. Since Prowers was neither blind nor a fool he became
aware of what the other was trying to keep from him. He said
nothing. The bulk of the work fell on him. No complaint came from
his lips. There was a curious smile on them, ironic, cruel, and
unhuman.
Cig was in turn gay, talkative, maudlin, and drowsy. His boastings
died away. He propped himself against the cement wall close to the
gates and swayed sleepily. Once or twice he cat-napped for a few
moments.
The old man continued to prepare the charges. Once, watching his
accomplice, he broke into a cackle of mocking mirth, so sinister that
Cig would have shuddered if he had been alive to impressions.
The tramp slid down to a sitting posture.
“Done up. Shleep a li’l’ ’f you don’ min’,” he murmured.
Presently he was in a drunken slumber.
Prowers finished his work and lit the fuses. He looked at the weak
and vicious instrument he had been using, a horrible grin on his
leathery, wrinkled face.
“You comin’ or stayin’?” he asked squeakily.
The doomed man snored.
“Suit yoreself,” the little devil-man said. “Well, if I don’t see you
again, good-bye. I got to be hittin’ the trail right lively.”
He moved briskly along the great wall of the dam, climbed the steps
at the far end, and followed the road leading out of the basin. Once
he turned to look at the deep lake lying placidly behind the rampart
Merrick had built to hold it.
A great flash and roar filled the night. Even where Prowers stood, he
felt the shake of the earth. Masses of torn concrete, of rock and
sand, were flung into the air. The echoes of the explosion died, but
another sound reached the anarchist on the hillside. He listened,
with the diabolical grin on his lips, to a murmur of rushing waters.
The Sweetwater Dam was going out.
“The Flat Tops are liable to be irrigated good an’ plenty, looks like,”
he murmured. “Well, this is no place for sight-seers.”
He shuffled along the trail, the Satanic smile still on his leathery face.
It would have vanished promptly if he had known that a pair of eyes
were looking down on him from the shadow of a pine above the
road.
 CHAPTER XXXVI
A STORMY SEA

Betty, about to return to the Quarter Circle D E, found herself

importuned by her small sister to take her along.
“I’ll be the goodest, ’n’ not bovver you, ’n’ go to bed jes’ the minute
you say to,” she promised.
The older sister hesitated, then turned to her father. “Why not? I’m
staying there only one night.”
“Fine. Take Little Nuisance along,” Reed said, and poked a forefinger
into Ruth’s softly padded body. “I’ve got to go to town, anyhow, an’
won’t be back till late.”
It was nearly two weeks since Betty had shaken hands with Justin
Merrick and closed in good-will a chapter of her history. She had not
seen Tug Hollister since then, but word had reached her that he had
gone back to work in the hills. Merrick’s men were on the Flat Tops
running the lines where the ditches were to go.
She was waiting for Tug to come to her. Surely he did not intend to
let things end between them as they were. He would ride up some
day and tell her that he had been a stiff-necked idiot who had at last
seen the light. Every day she had looked for him, and her eyes had
moved up the road in vain.
In the pleasant sunshine Ruth prattled cheerfully of puppies, dolls,
gingerbread, Sunday school, her new pink dress, and warts. Betty
came out of a brown reverie at the name of Hollister.
“I fink he might come an’ see us. I’m jes’ as mad at him,” the child
announced. “’N’ I’m gonna tell him so, too, when he comes.”
“If he comes,” Betty found herself saying with a little sigh.
She knew that if he did not make the first move she would take the
initiative herself. A little point of pride was not going to stand in the
way of her happiness. But she believed he ought to come to her. It
was a man’s place to meet a girl more than halfway.
It was, of course, some fantastic sense of duty that was holding him
back. She had not very much patience with it. Why was he not
generous enough to give her a chance to be generous about this
fault he magnified so greatly? He did not seem to appreciate her
point of view at all.
On Betty’s desk at the Quarter Circle D E an unopened letter lay
awaiting her. She had never seen Hollister’s writing, but at the first
glance after she picked up the envelope her heart began to hammer.
She knew who the message was from. The postmark was Wild
Horse. Evidently the mailman had delivered it an hour or two earlier.
She tore the flap and read:
Ever since I saw you last I have been close to happiness
in spite of my distress. You love me. I tell myself that over
and over. I cling to it and rest in it. For this is the greatest
thing that ever came into my life.
I wish, dear, dear friend, that I could show you my heart. I
wish you could understand how great is the temptation to
throw away discretion and accept this wonderful gift. A
thousand times I have been over the ground, trying to
persuade myself that you are right and my caution a
coward’s fear with no basis in reason. But I can’t. I can’t.
Before I dared to take your life into my keeping, I would
have to be sure. And how can I be? How can I know that
this horrible thing won’t rise up some day and throttle your
happiness?
Why did I not meet you before I had given hostages to this
destructive menace? I keep asking myself why. I can find
no answer that is not born in bitter mockery.
If you could know what you have done for me, how you
have rebuilt my faith in good, in God! No man ever had so
 wonderful a friend.
That was all, except the signature at the bottom. But it made her
heart sing. Her doubts were at rest. He loved her. That was all she
wanted to know. The difficulties in his mind would vanish. Her love
would beat them down. What scruples, what fears could stand
against this joy that flooded them both?
She longed to tell him so, to pour her heart out in what was to be the
first love-letter she had ever written. Yet she was not impatient of the
delays forced on her by ranch details, by Ruth’s imperious demands
for attention. She could attend to these competently and without
irritation because subconsciously her being floated in happiness. Life
had always given Betty what she wanted. It was unthinkable that
there should be withheld from her that which was the crown of all her
hopes.
Alone at the desk in the living-room, after everybody else on the
ranch had retired, Betty gave herself up to the luxury of dreams. She
felt very wide awake. It would not be possible to sleep until she had
written an answer. There was no hurry about it. She wanted to take
plenty of time to think out what she wanted to say before she even
started on it.
When she began to write, her thoughts flew fast. They kept busy the
flashing finger-tips that transmitted the messages to the white page
on the carriage of the typewriter. The sentences were short,
impulsive, energetic. They expressed the surge of eagerness in her.
She knew she would copy it in long hand, would go over every word
of every sentence. The other side of her, the shy-eyed maiden of
dreams who must be the wooed and not the wooer, would insist on
deleting, trimming down, making colorless the swift and passionate
staccato of the words. The letter she would send to Hollister would
be pale and neutral compared to this cry of the heart she was
uttering.
The little glass-cased clock on her desk struck two. Betty was
surprised. She had been here alone with her thoughts for four hours.
The fire in the grate had died down and the room was beginning to
chill. She gathered the live coals and put upon them two split lengths
of resinous pine.
For a few minutes she sat before the blaze warming her hands. That
was the obvious reason for her staying. A more compelling one was
that she saw pictures in the coals, dream pictures of the future in
which two figures moved to the exclusion of all others. These had
the texture of fiction, not consciously, but because our conceptions of
the future must always be adjusted to a reality affected by
environment and human character.
Betty lifted her head and listened. What was that rushing, swishing
sound? She rose, startled, affected instantly by a sense of insecurity
and danger. Something crashed heavily against the wall. The floor
seemed to weave.
She went to the window and looked out into the darkness. A river,
swift and turbid, was roaring past where the lawn had been a few
minutes before. The girl stood terrified, her mind caught in the horror
of unknown disaster. Even as she stood there, she saw that the
waters were rising.
Again there sounded a rending crash of timbers. Like a battering-ram
the end of a telephone pole smashed through the side of the house,
crossed the room, and came to rest in the fireplace. With it came a
rush of water that covered the floor.
Betty screamed. Her panicky heart beat wildly. Was the world
coming to an end? She looked out again. What she saw was
appalling—a swirl of rising waters tossing like the backs of cattle on
a stampede. She noticed that the barn, plainly visible a few moments
before, had vanished from sight.
The sloshing tide in the room was rising. Already it reached the
bottom of her skirts. There was no longer any doubt that the floor
was tilting. The house had been swept from its foundations. Built of
frame, it was tossing on the face of a rough sea.
Betty waded to the stairway, climbing over the telephone pole.
Except Ruth and the old colored woman Mandy there was nobody in
the house with her. Both of these were sleeping on the second floor.
In the bunkhouse were three men employed by her, but she realized
that it, too, must have been carried away.
The girl flew upstairs from the pursuing flood. She knew now that it
must have been caused by the breaking of the Sweetwater Dam.
The Quarter Circle D E ran along a narrow valley down which must
be pouring all the melted snow and rainfall impounded in the big
reservoir.
Pounded by the impact of the descending waters, the house rocked
like a boat. The lights had gone out when the wires had become
disconnected, but Betty groped her way into the room where her
sister lay asleep in the moonlight. She was running to pick up the
child when Mandy’s voice stopped her. It came in an excited wail.
“De day of judgment am hyeh, honey. Oh, Lawdy, Lawdy, we’re sure
come to de River Jordan!”
The greatest bulwark of courage is responsibility. The old woman’s
helpless collapse steadied her. A moment before she had known no
sensation but terror. Now there poured back into her the sense of
obligation. She had two children on her hands, one old and one
young. She must be a rock upon which they could lean.
Betty stepped out of the room and closed the door in order not to
waken Ruth. She noticed that the two lower steps of the stairway
were already submerged.
“The dam’s gone out, Mandy. We’re caught in the flood,” she
explained.
In despair Mandy threw up her brown palms. She was a short, fat
woman with an indistinguishable waist-line. A handkerchief was
knotted round her head for a nightcap.
“This am shore de night of Armagideon when de four ho’semen of de
Epolipse am a-ridin’. Oh, Lawd, where am you at when pore black
Mandy am a-reachin’ fo’ you-all?”
A lurch of the house flung her against Betty. She clutched at the girl
and clung to her. Her eyes rolled. She opened her mouth to scream.
Betty clapped her hand over it. “Stop that nonsense, Mandy! I’ll not
have it!” she ordered sharply. “You’ll waken Ruth. We’re all right so
long as the house holds together. I’ll not have any of your
foolishness.”
The old woman’s mouth closed. The words of Betty were astringent.
They assumed leadership, which was all that Mandy wanted. Her
voice obediently abated to a whimper.
Betty did not open her mind to the colored woman. There was no
use in filling her with alarms she had not yet conjured up. But the girl
knew their situation was desperate.
At the lower end of the rock-girt valley was a gateway where the
hogbacks on either side of it came almost together. There was room
enough for a wagon to get through and no more. Out of this gap all
the water rushing into the narrow basin would have to pour to the
Flat Tops below. If the Sweetwater Dam had gone out—and of that
Betty had no doubt—the floods would race down for hours much
faster than they could escape to the mesa. The churning stream
would grow deeper instead of subsiding. The house might waterlog
and sink. It might turn over. It might be rammed by trees or rocks. Or
it might be beaten by the waves until it fell apart.
“I’m going in to Ruth,” Betty said. “If you’re coming, too, you’ll have to
behave, Mandy. I’ll not have you frightening her by any silly
hysterics.”
“Yas’m,” assented Mandy meekly.
Ruth was still asleep, though the roar of the sweeping waters came
through the open window and occasionally a drench of spray. Her
sister went to close the casement. Above, the moon was shining
placidly; below, the current boiled and churned. The depth of the
stream, Betty guessed, must be eight or ten feet. It was still rising,
but the force of its downward rush was terrific.
The house pitched like a boat. What was worse, it had tilted so that
water was pouring in at the lower windows. If the stream continued
to rise, it would probably either sink or overturn.
The noise of crashing timbers and beating waves continued. Betty
wondered how much pounding an old frame building like this could
stand. It was built with an ell, the wing a later addition to the
farmhouse. The binding beams connecting the two parts creaked
and groaned under the strain put upon them.
Ruth woke. Betty sat down on the bed and put her arms round the
child.
“What ’tis?” asked the child, frightened.
“Some of the water got out of the dam and we’re floating in it, dearie.
Don’t cry, Ruthie. Betty’ll be here with you all the time.”
There came a series of heavy bumps accompanied by the sound of
rending timbers. It was as though the floor was being torn from under
their feet. Betty thought they were going down. The house listed
sharply, then righted itself so suddenly that the girl was flung to the
bed.
The house had been torn asunder, one wing from the other.
Mandy and the child screamed. For a moment Betty was near panic
herself. But she fought down her terror resolutely.
“See. The floor’s level now.” Her voice was steady and calm. “We’ll
probably be all right. Stop that noise, Mandy. Didn’t I tell you I
wouldn’t have it?”
The housekeeper sniffled. “I’m ce’tainly scared to death, honey, I
shorely is.” She folded her short, fat arms and rocked. “I been a
mighty triflin’ nigger, but I aims frum now on to get shet uv my
scandalacious ways an’ travel de road what leads to de pearly gates.
Yas’m. Glory Hallelujah! If de good Lawd evah lets me git outa hyeh
alive, I’ll shout for salvation at de mourners’ bench mighty loud.”
The situation was too desperate for Betty to find any amusement in
Mandy’s good resolutions, but it occurred to her to turn some of her
fear into another channel.
“Let’s sing,” she suggested.
Above the booming of the wild waters she lifted her clear young
soprano and sang “Safe in the Arms of Jesus.” The first line she
carried alone, then Mandy’s rich contralto quavered in and Ruth’s
small piping treble joined.
With an impact that shook every timber the current flung the house
against a great boulder. The building swung as on a pivot and was
driven into the rocks again. Betty looked out of the window. They
were wedged between two great spars of red sandstone. The furious
buffeting of the racing tide lifted their frail refuge and dropped it upon
the sharp edges of the crags.
“We’re caught at the Steeples,” the girl told the others.
If they could get out and climb the rock spires! But that was
impossible. The house was submerged almost to the second floor in
the swashing torrent which surrounded it and dragged at it with a
violence they could feel.
Again the shipwrecked three sang. This time it was “Rock of Ages.”
They held one another’s hands for comfort, and in their prayer,
voiced through the words of the old hymn, they found a sustaining
strength. Presently Mandy took up “Swing Low, Sweet Chariot,” and
the others came in with support.
Betty helped to wear away the long night with talk. She forced into
her voice cheerfulness and courage, though there was not a minute
of the dark hours not filled with alarms. It would be morning soon,
she promised. Daddy would come and get them, or Lon, or perhaps
Justin Merrick’s men who were camping on the Flat Tops. Then they
would have fun talking it all over and telling how brave Ruth had
been for not crying (except just the teentiest time) like a silly little girl.
After what to those in peril seemed an eternity of waiting, light sifted
into the sky with a promise of the coming day. The darkness lifted
and showed them a valley of wild and turbid waters. The Quarter
Circle D E ranch had become a furious and rushing river flung back
upon itself by the hogbacks which dammed its free course.
In the darkness it had seemed that the menace of the flood had been
tenfold increased by the unknown peril that lay back of the visible.
But in the light they could see too much. The force of the torrent was
appalling. It showed them to what a puny reed of safety they were
clinging. At any moment the building might collapse like an empty
eggshell under pressure.
 CHAPTER XXXVII
HOLD THE FORT

Hollister was wakened by a sound of lapping outside his tent. It

was a noise feeble as the meowing of little kittens. At first he thought
it must be a memory from his dream. When he had gone to bed the
stars had filled the sky above the dry and arid mesa where they were
camped. No rain could have fallen in sufficient quantity to make even
a rivulet.
But the rippling continued. The source of it puzzled the engineer. He
flung back the bedding and rose. A chill shocked through him. His
feet were in ice-cold water an inch or two deep.
Rapidly he dressed and then stepped through the flap of the tent. A
shallow sheet of water covered the ground except where there were
hillocks. Apparently it was flowing toward the south, as though
before the pressure of a greater volume not in sight.
Tug walked to the tent of his chief and called him. Merrick answered
sleepily, but at the words, “trouble at the dam,” he became instantly
alert. Three minutes later he joined his assistant.
One glance satisfied him. “The dam’s gone out,” he said quietly.
Neither by word nor manner did he betray what a blow this was to
him. That which he had given two of the best years of his life for, had
worked and fought for with all the brains and strength he possessed,
was now only a menace to the community instead of a hope. It was a
staggering disappointment. He had builded so surely, so safely, yet
somewhere must have been a miscalculation that had brought
disaster.
“The water’s probably coming through the Quarter Circle ranch,” he
suggested.