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Advanced Lbo Model Step 4
Advanced Lbo Model Step 4
Advanced Lbo Model Step 4
Master Case
LTM EBITDA
$90
Financing Case: 1
FinStep: 12
Leverage
Revolver NA
Term Loan B 3.0x
Senior Notes 2.0x
Subordinated Notes 1.0x
Leverage
Revolver NA
Term Loan B 3.0x
Senior Notes 2.0x
Subordinated Notes 1.0x
2 High Leverage
Leverage
Revolver NA
Term Loan B 3.0x
Senior Notes 2.5x
Subordinated Notes 2.0x
3 Low Leverage
Leverage
Revolver NA
Term Loan B 3.0x
Senior Notes 1.5x
Subordinated Notes 0.0x
x Transaction Assumptions
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
CIRC On
x PF Income Statement
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E
Revenue $327 $342 $359 $381 $407
% Growth 4.6% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Memo:
Revenue Growth (%) 4.6% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
COGS (% of Sales) 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.0% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3%
D&A (% of Sales) 4.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
CapEx (% of Sales) 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
x PF Working Capital
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E
Memo:
Sales $327 $342 $359 $381 $407
COGS 131 137 144 152 163
Days
Key Assumptions 360
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.7
Days Inventory Held (DIH) 118.4 118.4 118.4 118.4
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8
Cash Conversion Cycle 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4
Calculated NWC
Net Accounts Receivable $90 $95 $100 $107
Inventory 45 47 50 54
Other Current Assets 7 7 8 8
Current Assets $142 $149 $158 $169
x PF Balance Sheet
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2016A PF 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Assets
Cash $5 $5 $5 $5 $5
Net Accounts Receivable 90 90 95 100 107
Inventory 45 45 47 50 54
Other Current Assets 7 7 7 8 8
Total Current Assets $147 $147 $154 $163 $174
Net PP&E 78 78 78 78 78
Goodwill 20 580 580 580 580
Other Noncurrent Assets 6 16 15 13 12
Total Assets $251 $821 $827 $834 $844
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E
Cash from Operating Activities
Net Income $29 $32 $35
( + ) D&A 18 19 20
( + ) Noncash Interest Expense 10 11 12
( + / - ) Change in NWC (3) (4) (5)
Cash from Operating Activities $54 $58 $63
( - ) CapEx (17) (17) (18) (19) (20)
Levered Free Cash Flow $36 $39 $43
Memo:
Average Cash Balance $5 $5 $5
Cash Interest Income 0.250% 0 0 0
x PF Debt Schedule
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Memo:
Undrawn Revolver Commitment $100 $100 $100 $100 $100
Mandatory Amortization
Revolver -- -- --
Term Loan B (3) (3) (3)
Senior Notes -- -- --
Subordinated Notes -- -- --
Total ($3) ($3) ($3)
Optional Prepayment
Revolver -- -- --
Term Loan B (34) (36) (40)
Senior Notes -- -- --
Subordinated Notes -- -- --
Total ($34) ($36) ($40)
x PF Interest Expense
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Debt Balance
Undrawn Revolver $100 $100 $100
Revolver -- -- --
Term Loan B 257 219 178
Senior Notes 175 175 175
Subordinated Notes 104 114 124
Interest Expense
Undrawn Revolver $0 $0 $0
Revolver -- -- --
Term Loan B 9 9 8
Senior Notes 12 12 12
Subordinated Notes 9 10 11
Total $30 $31 $31
Outstanding Debt
Senior Secured Debt $275 $239 $200 $157
Senior Debt 450 414 375 332
Total Debt 550 522 493 461
Line Items
Adj. EBITDA $90 $95 $100 $107
Cash Interest Expense 22 22 22 21
CapEx 17 18 19 20
Leverage
Senior Secured Debt / Adj. EBITDA 3.1x 2.5x 2.0x 1.5x
Senior Debt / Adj. EBITDA 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.1
Total Debt / Adj. EBITDA 6.1 5.5 4.9 4.3
Interest Coverage
Adj. EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense 4.2x 4.4x 4.6x 5.2x
Adj. EBITDA - CapEx / Cash Interest Expense 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.2
x Illustrative Returns
($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Enterprise Value
(Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA)
MoIC Investment
(Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA) $195
IRR
(Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA) Years: 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr
$ Leverage Fees - $
Revolver -- $1
$720 Term Loan B 275 3.1x 3
(231) Senior Secured Debt $275 3.1x
91 Senior Notes 175 1.9x 4
$580 Senior Debt $450 5.0x
Subordinated Notes 100 1.1x 3
Total $550 6.1x $10
TRUE
TRUE
$5 $5 $5 $5 $5
114 119 124 129 134
57 60 62 65 67
9 9 10 10 10
$184 $193 $201 $209 $217
78 78 78 78 78
580 580 580 580 580
10 9 8 7 7
$853 $860 $867 $874 $881
$5 $5 $5 $5 $5
36 41 45 49 54
(5) (5) (5) (5) (5)
$36 $41 $45 $49 $54
($3) ($3) ($3) ($3) --
(34) (38) (42) (47) (54)
$5 $5 $5 $5 $5
$5 $5 $5 $5 $5
$5 $5 $5 $5 $5
0 0 0 0 0
-- -- -- -- --
120 80 34 -- --
175 175 175 160 106
129 129 129 129 129
$425 $384 $338 $289 $235
77.2% 69.8% 61.5% 52.6% 42.7%
-- -- -- -- --
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
-- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- --
(3) (3) (3) (3) --
-- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- --
($3) ($3) ($3) ($3) --
-- -- -- -- --
(34) (38) (42) (32) --
-- -- -- (15) (54)
-- -- -- -- --
($34) ($38) ($42) ($47) ($54)
2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
-- -- -- -- --
7 6 3 1 --
12 12 12 12 9
11 11 11 11 11
$31 $29 $27 $24 $21
-- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- --
$0 $0 -- -- --
1 1 1 -- --
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
$1 $1 $1 $1 $1
-- -- -- -- --
1 1 1 1 1
$1 $1 $1 $1 $1
2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
4 yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 yr 8 yr
$119
$1,074
(379)
$695
x Equity Waterfall
($ in millions, except per share values)
Memo:
LTM Adj. EBITDA $119 Sponsor Investment $159
Debt 384 Management Rollover 36
Cash 5
Exit Multiple (EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA) 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x
Exit Enterprise Value $835 $895 $954 $1,014
( - ) Net Debt (379) (379) (379) (379)
Exit Equity Value $456 $516 $576 $635
Number of Shares
Management Rollover 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Converted Preferred 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4
In-the-money?
Stock Option Tranches # (in 000's) Strike ($)
$12.50 Options 500 $12.50 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
$14.00 Options 500 14.00 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
$15.00 Options 500 15.00 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
$17.50 Options 500 17.50 FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE
$20.00 Options 750 20.00 FALSE FALSE TRUE 1
$22.50 Options 1,250 22.50 FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE
$25.00 Options 1,250 25.00 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Cash Proceeds
Stock Option Tranches # (in 000's) Strike ($)
$12.50 Options 500 $12.50 $6 $6 $6 $6
$14.00 Options 500 14.00 7 7 7 7
$15.00 Options 500 15.00 8 8 8 8
$17.50 Options 500 17.50 -- 9 9 9
$20.00 Options 750 20.00 -- -- 15 15
$22.50 Options 1,250 22.50 -- -- -- 28
$25.00 Options 1,250 25.00 -- -- -- --
Total Cash Proceeds from Options $21 $30 $45 $73
( + ) Exit Equity Value 456 516 576 635
Total Cash to Shareholders $477 $545 $620 $708
Shares
Stock Option Tranches # (in 000's) Strike ($)
$12.50 Options 500 $12.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
$14.00 Options 500 14.00 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
$15.00 Options 500 15.00 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
$17.50 Options 500 17.50 -- 0.5 0.5 0.5
$20.00 Options 750 20.00 -- -- 0.8 0.8
$22.50 Options 1,250 22.50 -- -- -- 1.3
$25.00 Options 1,250 25.00 -- -- -- --
Total Options Exercised 1.5 2.0 2.8 4.0
( + ) Management Shares 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
( + ) Sponsor Shares 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4
Total Shares 28.5 29.0 29.7 31.0
Consideration Value / Share $16.77 $18.84 $20.88 $22.87
x Division of Proceeds
($ in millions, except per share values)
Exit Multiple (EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA) 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x
Proceeds
Sponsor $392 $440 $488 $534
Management 86 106 133 174
Combined $477 $545 $620 $708
% of Total Proceeds
Sponsor 82.1% 80.7% 78.6% 75.4%
Management 17.9% 19.3% 21.4% 24.6%
Profits Investment
Sponsor $159 $233 $281 $329 $375
Management 36 50 70 97 138
Combined $195 $282 $351 $425 $513
% of Total Profits
Sponsor 82.5% 80.2% 77.3% 73.1%
Management 17.5% 19.8% 22.7% 26.9%
On
$10.00
$579 $623 $666 $709 $752 Represents the greater of (i) accrued preferred value o
188 236 252 269 285 Management shares (including exercised options) x co
$768 $858 $918 $978 $1,037