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Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs
2018, Volume 2, Number 2, pages 33–45
A R T I C L E I N F O: ABSTRACT
Article history: Population and land use out-migrations from urban to peripheral areas can result
Received 10October 2017 in non-functional, unmaintained historic structures which deteriorate to the point
Accepted 16 August 2017 where removal is cheaper than removal – or demolition by neglect. The increasing
Available online 16October rate of neglected historic structures is a growing concern. There is a need for
2017 research investigating connections between urban growth management and its
Keywords: effect on neglect. This paper applies Newman’s (2013) conceptual model of
Historic preservation; measuring neglect to Geographic Information Systems, comparing rates of neglect
Structural neglect; in historic Doylestown, Quakertown, and Bristol boroughs in Pennsylvania, USA
Correlation; utilizing different amounts of peripheral agricultural preservation. Comparisons are
Geographic made examining descriptive statistics on existing conditions, a Polychoric
information systems; correlation evaluating relationships between drivers of neglect, and a cross-
Urban growth. comparative GIS spatial analysis. Results indicate as amounts of peripheral
preserved farmlands increase, neglect can be lowered.
This work is licensed under a
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS (2018) 2(2), 33-45.
Creative Commons Attribution
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Copyright © 2017 Journal Of Contemporary Urban Affairs. All rights reserved.
1. Urban Dynamics and Heritage Neglect fundamentally connected; he also states that
Forrester (1969) theorizes that the city is a living these connections are, however, not fully
organism whose form takes its shape as the result understood. Local policies do not conserve built
of a combination of external forces. Further, heritage fully (Pickerill & Pickard, 2007). For
actions and interactions of cultures are a product example, evidence from historic areas in
of the desires, necessities, and values of a city’s Germany has shown that contextual economic
actors and give meaning to its form (Newman, and political changes significantly impact
2015). This theory presupposes that historically preserved buildings (Alberts & Brinda ,
comprehension of the built environment must be 2005)
considered in conjunction with the understanding Historic preservation has a primary objective to
of both exogenous and endogenous factors and protect structures and districts of historic prestige
their causal relations(Ben-Hamouche,
*Corresponding Author:
2013).Listokin(1997) takes this theory a step further, Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas
positing that growth management and A&M University, USA
preservation of the built environment are
E-mail address: gnewman@arch.tamu.edu
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
from alteration, degradation, and demolition structures have two fundamental dimensions:
(Ben-Hamouche, 2013). Historic urban areas historic integrity, and a relationship to the
require high levels of support to retain structural contextual environment with which they interact.
viability, safeguard the integrity of heritage A vital approach to the preservation of historic
structures, and stimulate local economies. Urban buildings lies with the ability to managing the
spatial change is largely tied to alterations in individually with local policy (internally) and
contextual land uses, threatening many elements successful management of regional land use
within the historic built environment. changes (externally). Therefore, the examination
Simultaneously, many urban fringe areas (such as of the individual structure and its dynamic setting
farmlands), the settings of historic urban buildings, must occur if neglect can be fully understood.
are also threatened. As such, regulations now go (Listokin, Listokin, & Lahr, 1998; Pickerill & Armitage,
beyond local preservation policies and include 2009).
larger scaled contextual approaches for heritage The shift toward a more dynamic management
management (Collins, Waters, & Dotson, 1991). of historic structures must focus on adaptive
Centrifugal development has effected many reuse, rehabilitation, and land use management.
urban historic buildings, in many cases resulting in American historic preservation can differ from
their removal. Urban sprawl can create a uniform European approaches due to a stronger
spatial form across cities and destroy much emphasis on local regulations in the U.S., while
structural heritage in its wake (Treib, 2008; Yahner many European cities practice an area-based
& Nadenicek, 1997). Urban expansion can approach (Doratli, 2005). Area-based strategies
accelerate the loss of historic buildings because can increase non-government funding, allow for
of a lack of utility, a process referred to as greater expansions in historic districts, increase
demolition by neglect (DBN). DBN is the removal private sector investment in historic regeneration
of a historic building or structure due to projects, and increase heritage rehabilitation in
prolonged vacancy and extreme maintenance marginalized neighborhoods (Pickerill & Armitage,
issues (Leatherbarrow & Mostafavi, 1993). 2009). In the U.S., broader heritage management
The capabilities of historic preservation policies to approaches are typically regulatory or incentive-
assist in retaining historic character and function based. Regulatory measures, such as state
in heritage buildings is highly dependent on the regulated monetary penalties, generally involve
examination of process and changes within punishment for allowing neglect to occur or
urbanized areas and their surrounding contexts continue. South Dakota statutes makes willful
(Alderson, 2006; Cook, 1996). Since urban neglect a misdemeanor; in West Virginia, local
contexts are constantly in flux, form and function landmark commissions enforce standards for the
rarely coincide in any environment for an maintenance of landmarks; San Francisco,
extended period of time (Jackson, 1997). California can assess a $500 per day penalty to
Contemporary historic preservation theory gives owners who allow neglect to occur (National Trust
priority to form through the pursuit of historic for Historic Preservation, 2008).
integrity. An unfortunate outcome of this position Listokin (1997) theory suggests that local polices,
is that if a historic building loses its function in when used in a singular approach, will not
contemporary society, it can also eventually be adequately result in conserved built heritage in
removed. Luckily, adaptive reuse and the long-term(Alberts & Brinda, 2005; Pickerill &
rehabilitation efforts have increased recently, Pickard, 2007). Contemporary research reinforces
leading to small upsurges in historic structure this position, but shows a separation between
retainance in some localities (Newman, 2015). historic preservation and external land use
Many U.S. historic structures are policed on a unit- management (Avrami, 2012). Historic buildings
by-unit basis and are then analyzed based on are just one component within a larger, ever-
whether or not they appear as they once did at a changing system; if both aims are focused to
given historical time (or based on their historic align to one goal, only then will the system be
integrity). Jigyasu (2002), notes that historic mutually beneficial properly (Newman & Saginor,
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 34
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
2014). Cassar (2009) suggests that historic environment studies, typically involving analyses
preservation requires new research to aid in the involving chronological historical spatial data
understanding of how traditional buildings combined with statistical assessments (Kvamme,
behave in environmental systems, if structural 1993).
performance is to be improved. The field of archaeology, studying human
Newman’s (2013) conceptual model for activities of the past and their resultant material
measuring neglect takes a systems approach to culture, has dominated the used of GIS in regards
measuring areas of the historic built environment. to historic preservation based research (Kaimaris,
It is a method to begin to compare neglect rates Sylaiou, Georgoula, & Patias, 2011). While
across cities and historic districts to initialize the archaeologists globally have recognized the
exploration of the effects of strategies for possibilities GIS can offer and applied its
managing contextual growth and techniques to analytical tools in countries outside of America
preserve the historic built environment. It is a such as Scotland (Murray, 1995), France (Guillot &
framework for measuring neglect, based on Leroy, 1995) and Holland (Roorda & Wiemer,
Listokin’s(1997) theory of urban dynamics. The 1992), preservationists applying GIS to solve the
model is a means to begin to examine area issues of current development patterns on
based approaches for regulating historic areas neglected heritage structures are nearly non-
through the surveyance and analysis of neglect existent. Remote sensing applications, satellite
of the built environment, specifically in regards to imagery set the stage for initial historic structure
historic buildings. Newman’s model (2013) uses analysis (Doneus, 2001) but as data sources have
dimensions of integrity and viability from Listokin’s grown, new statistical analysis and multi-scalar
(1997) theory to measure the rate of demolition analyst tools have been created to move
by neglect. It is the only model currently utilized to beyond traditional GIS based approaches.
measure this phenomenon. A synergetic Cultural resource management professionals
relationship between urbanization and historic have relied upon these databases for years to
preservation can be eventually realized through ensure the protection and preservation of
increased application of the model. While the valuable historic information (Box, 2003). GIS data
original model was developed and assessed can also be used as a way of distilling priorities for
through qualitative analysis, newer methods of management decisions. For example, the Almería
analysis using Geographic Information Systems Province in Spain utilizes its cultural and heritage
(GIS) should also be employed for more thorough inventory data to assess the rehabilitation
spatial analyses. potential of buildings and has established a
priority order for their reuse for a ‘decision index’
2. Geographic information Systems in Heritage which corresponds to the considerations of each
Management building (Cano, Garzon, & Sanchez-Soto, 2013).
GIS are powerful spatial tools using This makes each management decision unique to
computational technologies which allow for its corresponding heritage structure.
storing altering, creating,, displaying and In regards to the historic built environment, GIS
overlaying spatial data (Limp, 1999). They offer have been primarily applied for landscape
the possibility to simultaneously store, organize, visualization, viewshed impact assessment, multi-
map and represent, manage, and analyze data scale synthesis, spatial sampling, and forecast
concerning geographic locales and their context modelling. GIS must become more common in
while. This allows for a much more thorough urban heritage studies to help synthesize efforts
spatial analysis of an historic urban area land use planning, environmental management
(Burrough & McDonnell, 1988). While information and a variety of historic analyses; a new set of
obtained from surveyance or research can be methods needs to be developed which may
applied to generate new databases, the require preservationists to alter the way asses the
innovative tools involved with the program have historic built environment through expanding its
been used too sparingly in historic built scope beyond individual built units (Limp, 1999).
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 35
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
3. Research Questions and Methodology Each borough under investigation is listed on the
This research uses GIS to determine if contextual National Register of Historic Places (National Trust
land use management helps deter neglect within for Historic Preservation, 2008) and is
the historic built environment. It seeks to answer approximately two-square-miles in size; similar
the question, what relationship does farmland polices for preserving farmlands are also
preservation have on neglect within historic urban practiced (purchase of development rights).
areas? It is hypothesized that preserving fringe Evaluating units of analysis within an identical
farmlands as a policy for external land use county with analogous geographic sizes,
management can aid in increasing viable populations, and ages helps to control for other
buildings within historic urbanized boroughs. intervening variables. We utilized the central
The urban boroughs analyzed – Bristol, place theory (King, 1984) to outline an external
Quakertown, and Doylestown – are all historic boundary for each borough to determine the
colonial cities in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, USA. highest impacted areas for the context
Pennsylvania uses farmland preservation to aid in according to town centers with this particular size
the conservation of the historic character of its and population (Table 1). Within this boundary,
boroughs and townships as a means of we calculated the total quantity of preserved
countering the effects of sprawl. Bucks County agricultural lands which encircled each borough.
lost 70% of its agricultural properties from 1950- Newman’s model (2013) of calculating neglect is
1997 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2005). The applied using (Figure 1) GIS based tools. It
entire region was ranked second in the U.S when combines dimensions of integrity and viability
ranked according to areas with farmlands using five factors: 1) timeframe of construction
threatened to conversion (Olson & Lyson, (when the building was built), 2) architectural
1999)(Bourke, Jacob, & Luloff, 1996). Bucks Count, modification (how much the building has been
is a contested landscape characterized by rapid altered since construction), 3) land use change
land consumption and conversion. It is in (how much the building’s function has changed),
southeast Pennsylvania within an area suffering 4) physical condition (the condition of each
from threatened farmland and concentrations of building), and 5) assessed value (the fair market
historic teardowns. From 1985 to 1995, value). A 95% confidence level was reached
Pennsylvania lost an area of farmland the size of based on the sample size and clustered,
Delaware to development while populations multistage area random sampling was utilized to
declined in many inner cities (Hylton, 1995). To survey each building (Montello & Sutton, 2006).
counteract decentralization, the state enacted Each factor was then measured by scoring three
agricultural preservation as a primary means of characteristics.
managing growth
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 36
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
After individual building totals were mapped as from the hot spot analysis. Each hot spot analysis
point values, the cross-case comparison used GIS map was then overlaid using suitability modeling
analyses to identify and map larger-scaled areas which was weighted to identify both neglected
of the built environment which were neglected. and viable spaces.
Hot spot analysis was performed for each spatially
located variable and an IDW was performed
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 37
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
Total 65 1 66 1 55 1 186 1
Land Use b1 = Vacant 2 0.031 7 0.106 8 0.146 17 0.091
Change b2 = Alternate Use 18 0.277 17 0.258 5 0.091 40 0.215
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 38
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
Cumulative Variance
Measure Eigenvalue Variance Explained
Explained
To understand how these five variables can be Construction and Architectural Modification
combined into, we ran polychoric principle indicate one similar factor of neglect and load on
component analysis. In Table 5, we notice that the first factor. The other three variables, Land Use
the selected variables explain three underlying Change, Building Condition, and Assessed Value,
aspects of neglect with Eigenvalues above 1 for load onto both factors 2 and 3.
three factors. These three factors together explain Because all five variables relate to our
over 80 percent of the variance in the neglect conceptual understanding of neglect and the
scores among units. As expected from the lack of one clear factor, we choose to combine
correlation matrix, the variables Time Frame of them into one rate of neglect. There are various
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 39
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
methods to create a combined index score, other variables. The scores could range from 5 (a
including weighting variables based on the building scored 1 on every variable) to 15 (a
correlation matrix or polychoric factor analysis building scored 3 on every variable). Overall, our
results. Because of the limited ordinal scaling of actual rate of neglect scores range from 6 to 15,
the variables (i.e., only values of 1, 2, and 3) and with a mean of 11 and standard deviation of 1.61.
the smaller sample size (n=186), we are In Table 6, we show the rates of average neglect
concerned about strongly interpreting these for each town. All three towns have similar rates
results. Thus, we chose simplicity in this exploratory of neglect, but Bristol shows the highest rates with
analysis of neglect rating and sum the scores of an average score per structure of 10.55. Only 1
the five variables. We reverse code timeframe of building in our study scored the maximum of 15,
construction and architectural modification and it is in Doylestown (Table 6).
because of their negative correlations with the
(> 2.58)
Range 15-8 14-8 13-7
4.3. Cross-Case GIS Analysis areas represent and lighter areas are less
Each building surveyed was geocoded using its neglected (Figure 2, 3, and 4). Doylestown has
address, new fields were created as attributes nearly one half of its area as viable and a very
using the data obtained, maps were created low proportion of neglected area (48.38% and
according the attributed developed, and then 22.21%, respectively) (Table 6). Quakertown has
Hotspot and IDW tools were applied. High z- nearly one quarter of its space as viable and
scores, hot spots, designated areas which with nearly one fifth neglected (24.18% and 18.37%,
clustered neglect. The IDW combined points respectively) and Bristol has relatively no viable
created from each building surveyed and space and over one third of its area neglected
suitability models were then run with equal (2.22% and 37.58%, respectively) (Table 6).
weighting. The suitability maps read where darker
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 40
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 42
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 43
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 44
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 2(2), 33-45 / 2018
Galen Newman, Michelle Meyer, Boah Kim, and Ryun Jung Lee 45
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l’emmener, de la prendre malgré moi, comme je l’ai prise malgré ma
mère ?
Le souvenir de sa mère morte acheva de le mettre hors de lui. Il
cria :
— Eh bien, non ! je t’ai promis de te sauver, — je te sauve !… Par
notre passé de vingt ans d’affection, Albert, par notre amitié toujours
vivante, tu n’emmèneras pas cette femme ! J’écraserai cette
puissance malfaisante, avant qu’elle ait pu te perdre !… Mais vois
donc, regarde-la donc ! Regarde comme elle est pâle, sous ses
habits de deuil… Tu sais de qui elle est en deuil ?… Elle tuerait ta
mère, comme elle a tué la mienne, si je n’étais pas là, moi, pour
vous garder contre elle ! — Regarde-la bien, je te dis, pendant que je
la dévoile, — regarde moi ça bien en face !… Ça ne s’est jamais
donné, afin de se vendre un jour plus cher. Peut-être bien qu’elle est
encore vierge ; on ne sait pas ! Soit ! Regarde-la donc, la vierge
adultère ! Regarde-moi ce visage démonté, d’où toute beauté a
disparu. On n’y voit plus que la rage de la défaite, la honte d’être vue
à fond, la terreur sans repentir, d’être châtiée ! Mais regarde-la donc
en ce moment… Elle est horrible : elle est sincère ! Ce n’est plus
Marie : c’est Rita !
Et comme Albert, les yeux égarés, hurlait à son tour : « Tais-toi !
ou je ne réponds plus de moi-même ! » le comte Paul, comme pour
la piétiner d’un mot, répétait avec rage : « Rita ! Rita ! Rita ! »
Elle ne savait toujours pas s’il était sûr de la présence de l’autre.
Elle était là, muette, droite sur ses pieds crispés, attentive, le cou
tendu, comme la bête au ferme.
C’était ici le dénouement d’une de ces tragédies sourdement
compliquées, qui, aux yeux du monde, resteraient inexplicables, car,
pour les comprendre, il faudrait, comme le Dieu de la Bible, sonder
les cœurs et les reins des acteurs en lutte ; mais le monde ne les
voit pas ; ce sont des drames ignorés comme il s’en passe pourtant
tous les jours entre les murs de ces maisons riantes, dont les hautes
fenêtres, encadrées de riches tentures, laissent entrevoir aux
passants des tableaux et des plantes rares, et qui, ainsi vues du
trottoir, muettes, nobles, paisibles, semblent les asiles même du
bonheur.
Paul fit un pas vers la porte de son cabinet ; et, d’un ton tout à fait
tranquille :
— Me crois-tu donc capable de parler au hasard, quand je
t’affirme qu’on te trompe ?… Et puisque le mari c’est toi, cherche
donc l’amant, — malheureux ! Tiens, il est ici, je parie !
Il essaya d’ouvrir la porte qui résista, fermée en dedans.
Elle comprit que tout était perdu. Il n’y avait plus qu’à faire bonne
contenance.
— Allons, — dit-elle, d’une voix sèche, vulgaire, avec un
haussement d’épaules, — il est clair que vous savez tout. Soit.
D’ailleurs, j’en ai assez ! mais je tiens à vous dire que je ne suis pas
le monstre que Monsieur d’Aiguebelle imagine. J’ai épousé, — c’est
vrai, — pour son titre et pour sa fortune, un homme que je n’aimais
pas. Mais quand vous mariez ainsi vos filles ou vos sœurs, vous
appelez ça tous les jours un mariage de convenance… Celui que j’ai
épousé m’a rendue malheureuse et je l’aurais quitté, — c’est encore
vrai, — pour chercher le bonheur avec un autre… moins exalté et
plus riche. Mais, si vos lois le permettent, qu’aurait-on à y
reprendre ? Enfin, j’étais bien près d’avoir pour amant un homme
que j’aimais depuis longtemps… l’auteur de ces funestes lettres que
vous avez lues, malgré moi, une certaine nuit, vous souvenez-vous,
Monsieur d’Aiguebelle ? Eh bien ! mais qu’est-ce que cela prouve,
sinon que je suis capable de fidélité, et que j’aurais eu, de guerre
lasse, un amant, — comme toutes les femmes ? Voilà bien du fracas
pour une histoire assez commune, mon cher !… Je croyais que,
dans votre monde, on était resté plus Louis XV !
Elle se tenait, la tête haute, dans une attitude de défi.
Albert, la tête haute également, blême, supportait le coup en
soldat, — et, l’œil fixe, il mesurait l’abîme qu’on venait d’ouvrir
devant lui.
— Enfin, dit-elle, que me veut-on ? Vous ne me changerez pas,
n’est-ce pas ?… Vous ne me tuerez pas non plus, je pense ?… Ça
n’est pas votre genre… Je ne vois pas beaucoup ça dans les
journaux de demain : « Le crime de la rue Saint-Dominique. Mort
tragique et inexplicable de la comtesse d’Aiguebelle. »… Vous
voudrez éviter ça, je m’en doute !
Elle pensait à tout, et elle riait méchamment.
— … Alors, quoi ? Il faut prendre un parti pourtant ! Notez que je
n’ai commis réellement aucune faute — et que je suis toujours
punie !… C’est même agaçant, à la fin !
Elle avait l’air très ennuyé et nonchalant.
Le comte Paul s’approcha d’Albert et lui mit affectueusement une
main sur l’épaule. C’était un geste de consolation.
Ensuite, il alla à la porte de son cabinet, dont il écarta la lourde
draperie ; et, le visage tourné vers cette porte, derrière laquelle
s’agitait une douleur inconnue :
— Allons, ouvrez !… On sait qui vous êtes, Monsieur Terral !
Le silence qui suivit fut court, mais il fut profond comme la mort.
Ce qui répondit enfin, ce fut un bruit bizarre, qu’on ne comprit pas
tout de suite, un coup sec ; mat, comme étouffé… Son revolver lui
avait servi… Ne venait-il pas d’apprendre qu’elle s’apprêtait à fuir
avec un autre ? Lui aussi, il venait de mesurer l’abîme, mais, déjà
pris de vertige, il y avait roulé.
Les deux hommes s’élancèrent contre la porte… Des
domestiques accoururent… Léon Terral, vivant encore, mais blessé
mortellement, demanda à être porté chez son père.
VIII
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