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Global Rogues and Regional Orders
Global Rogues
and Regional Orders
The Multidimensional Challenge
of North Korea and Iran
Il Hyun Cho
1
1
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide.
With offices in
Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece
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9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Acknowledgments vii
Notes 177
Index 233
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
One of the key messages that I wanted to convey in this book is that polit-
ical actors perceive a seemingly common problem in starkly different
ways. In the process of envisioning, conducting, and writing this research,
I have benefited enormously from many individuals. Like many political
actors discussed in this book, they were often drawn to vastly different
aspects of the project. Unlike the diverse and competing political actors
examined in this book, however, the people that I have met were invaria-
bly helpful. It is their guidance, criticism, and encouragement that helped
me navigate the bewildering and at times seemingly never-ending process
of completing this book.
This project began as a doctoral dissertation written at Cornell Uni-
versity, where I had the privilege of having Peter Katzenstein as my dis-
sertation supervisor. Peter’s scholarly achievements and commitment to
students are legendary in the field of International Relations. However, I
am still in awe of his uncanny ability to offer the perfect mix of prodding
and encouragement, always at the right time. Peter has deeply shaped my
thinking on global and regional dynamics and my scholarly endeavors
more generally. Even after my Ph.D. studies, Peter has continued to in-
spire me as scholar and co-author. I will strive to pay back to my students
what I learned from him.
Matthew Evangelista was also inspirational in many ways and offered
tremendous help with his careful reading of and extensive suggestions on
numerous drafts of the dissertation. Matt’s insightful comments on do-
mestic politics in particular were crucial to sharpening the book’s argu-
ment. I am also grateful to Jae-Jung Suh who provided penetrating
feedback on numerous occasions, including several times from the other
side of the world during his own research trips to Asia. My thanks also go
to Allen Carlson who not only offered useful advice on my field research in
China but also provided invaluable comments on multiple versions of the
dissertation.
Apart from my dissertation committee members, I am grateful to Jona-
than Kirshner, Chris Way, Valerie Bunce, Richard Bensel, and Elizabeth
Sanders for their advice and encouragement for this project. Prior to my
study at Cornell, it was Professor Jung-Hoon Lee, my advisor at the Grad-
uate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, who
introduced me to the study of International Relations and encouraged me
to pursue doctoral studies. I owe a great deal of appreciation to him for
sparking my interest in international politics and profoundly shaping my
career plans. At Yonsei, Professors Jongryn Mo and Chung Min Lee also
provided helpful and timely guidance for which I am deeply grateful.
I wish to acknowledge with gratitude financial support for my research
from the following institutions: Cornell University’s Graduate School,
Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies, Peace Studies Program,
the Department of Government, and Harvard University’s Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA). The Institute of Social Sci-
ences at the University of Tokyo and the Department of Political Science at
Stanford University facilitated my research and writing by granting me
visiting and exchange scholar status. I thank in particular Kenji Hi-
rashima of the University of Tokyo and Stephen Krasner, Gi-Wook Shin,
and Jessica Weeks of Stanford University. Some of the early findings were
presented at various conferences, including the annual meetings of the
American Political Science Association and the International Studies As-
sociation. I also presented portions of my research at the International
Security Program seminar and the Managing the Atom Project seminar at
the Belfer Center, where I received helpful feedback from Steven Miller,
Sean Lynn-Jones, Richard Rosecrance, Matt Bunn, Jeffrey Lewis, and
other participants.
Although I began drafting the book manuscript at Cleveland State Uni-
versity, I have completed most of the revisions for the book at Lafayette
College. I would like to thank my former colleagues in the Department of
Political Science at Cleveland State, especially Dave Elkins, Rodger Govea,
Chuck Hersch, and Jeff Lewis. I am also grateful to my current colleagues
in the Government and Law Department and the Asian Studies Program
at Lafayette, in particular Paul Barclay, Michael Feola, Ingrid Furniss,
Josh Miller, Bruce Murphy, Ilan Peleg, Robin Rinehart, Helena Silverstein,
and David Stifel, for their support and encouragement. I would like to
thank the Academic Research Committee at Lafayette for providing finan-
cial support for indexing. Melanie Furey provided helpful research assis-
tance for the chapter on Iran.
Beyond my home institutions, I owe a great deal of debt to many indi-
viduals and institutions. For this research I conducted numerous interviews
[ viii ] Acknowledgments
with government officials and regional experts at various governmental,
semi-governmental, and other research institutions in China, Japan, and
South Korea. I am grateful for their generous time and candid views. I had
many helping hands during my yearlong field research in East Asia. The re-
search for this book would have not been possible without their timely sup-
port and guidance. I am particularly grateful to Professor Gong Shaopeng of
the Chinese Foreign Affairs University and Professor Tang Shiping of the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and now at Fudan University. In South
Korea, I would like to thank Professors Jung-Hoon Lee and Sukhee Han of
Yonsei University, Professor Taeho Kim of Hallym University, Professor
Jaewoo Choo of Kyunghee University, and Professor Young Nam Cho of
Seoul National University. In Japan, Professor Norihito Kubota of the Na-
tional Defense Academy and Professors Kenji Hirashima and Gregory Noble
of the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Tokyo were particu-
larly helpful.
For their friendship and moral support, I thank colleagues and friends
at Cornell and other institutions: Minhyo Bae, Tom Bielefeld, Munchul
Cho, Wooyoung Cho, Hong Duan, Jennifer Erickson, Dev Gupta, Stepha-
nie Hofmann, Hyeran Jo, Jai Kwan Jung, Hyunwook Kim, Junga Kim,
You-jin Kim, Tomas Larsson, Gun Lee, Col. Jong Bong Lee, Jay Lyall, Barak
Mendelsohn, Jae Jeok Park, Margarita Petrova, Andrew Phillips, Lisa San-
soucy, Scott Siegel, Moeun Sung, Yuriko Takahashi, Israel Waismel-Manor,
Steve Watts, Jessica Weeks, Hyunsik Woo, Andrew Yeo, Rong Yu, and
Maria Zaitseva.
Special thanks go to Angela Chnapko and her team at Oxford Univer-
sity Press. As a first time author, I was very fortunate to have Angela as my
editor, who patiently and skillfully shepherded this project into publica-
tion. I would also like to thank Princess Ikatekit, B. Gogulanathan, and
Susie Hara for their timely and valuable help in the copyediting and pro-
duction process. I am deeply grateful to two anonymous reviewers for
Oxford University Press, who provided insightful and detailed sets of
comments that helped me sharpen this book’s central argument and em-
pirical analysis. Needless to say, I am solely responsible for any errors that
remain in the book.
My parents, Gyu Yeol Cho and Seok Rye Kim, and parents-in-law,
Myung Soo Park and Young Ju Kim, have been enormously supportive
throughout my doctoral studies, and they deserve special thanks. They
not only provided comfortable places to stay during my field trips in Seoul,
their homes also served as invaluable research base camps from which I
made subsequent research trips to and from Beijing and Tokyo. Further-
more, they made several visits to the other side of the world to provide
Acknowledgments [ ix ]
care for my infant daughter and son in times of need. For that and more, I
am eternally grateful to them. I also wish to thank my sisters, Mi Young
and Mi Kyoung, and siblings-in-law, Seo-Jin and Chang-Seo, for their sup-
port and smiles.
More than anyone else, Seo-Hyun Park knows what the completion of
this book means to me. But she has no idea how much I admire her as a
scholar, a parent, and a person. Her intellect, love, and support have sus-
tained me throughout the long and arduous process of completing this
book. We have also shared great memories during our peripatetic journey
through various places in East Asia and the United States. The best we
share, of course, is our children, Emily Yuna and Jason Youngwu. Our
deepest sources of joy and pride, they have grown up so much while I was
working on this book and have now become avid readers themselves. I
hope they keep turning the page for more great stories. I dedicate this
book to Emily and Jason and their incredible mom and my irreplaceable
companion in life, both academic and otherwise, Seo-Hyun.
[x] Acknowledgments
Global Rogues and Regional Orders
CH A P TER 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The 2010 U.S. National Security Strategy singled out nuclear proliferation
as one of the gravest threats confronting the United States.1 In the past
decade, no other proliferation challenges have garnered more global atten-
tion than the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, two interna-
tional pariahs accused of accumulating or seeking nuclear weapons. These
“archetypal rogue states” not only violated numerous global nonprolifera-
tion rules and UN Security Council resolutions but also engaged in a series
of provocative actions, including nuclear or ballistic missile tests. The con-
ventional view about the decade-long nuclear conundrum is thus premised
on the presence of what is believed to be the uniquely dangerous and defi-
ant nature of the communist regime in Pyongyang and the clerical regime
in Tehran. This is why coercive measures, such as “crippling” sanctions or
preemptive strikes, are often deemed to be the most effective solution to
the current stalemate over the two global proliferation challenges.
This book contends that this “global” narrative, which is widespread in
the United States and other regions of the world, is fundamentally mis-
guided. It tends to downplay the views of North Korea’s and Iran’s regional
neighbors, and, in its fixation on the nuclear question, neglects larger—
and arguably more important—regional dynamics surrounding the two
states. Contrary to the seemingly unified global concern about the prob-
lem of nuclear proliferation, regional perceptions of North Korea and Iran
reveal a far more complex picture. For instance, various regional actors
have blamed U.S. policy toward North Korea as the main problem, while
often challenging the U.S. position even at the risk of jeopardizing strate-
gic ties with the United States. In various regional surveys, Arab respon-
dents in the Middle East, including some of U.S. allies such as Egypt and
Jordan, selected Israel and the United States as the greatest threats to
their security, while only a fraction cited Iran. In fact, no Persian Gulf
state has engaged in civil defense planning in anticipation of an Iranian
strike.2
What shapes the perceptions and policies of regional actors in the face
of the North Korean and Iranian nuclear challenges? Why do some re-
gional actors cooperate with the United States in nuclear diplomacy, while
others do not? What are the consequences of such varying responses for
regional order and global security? These questions have yet to be ad-
dressed in a comprehensive manner in the literatures on nuclear prolifer-
ation and regional security. Lacking in the current scholarly debate on
proliferation in general and the North Korean and Iranian crises in partic-
ular is a realization that global efforts to address the two nuclear chal-
lenges have coincided with a shift in the political landscape in the two
regions. In the Middle East, the collapse of Iran’s two enemies, Saddam
Hussein in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan, has led to Tehran’s grow-
ing regional influence. In East Asia as well, a rising China raises questions
about the future of the U.S.-led regional order, prompting the Asia “pivot”
strategy of the Obama administration.3
This suggests that prior to seeking solutions to each of the nuclear
crises, we need to locate these nuclear challenges in specific regional con-
texts and empirically examine the sources and consequences of the re-
gional understandings of the nuclear proliferation challenge.4 In this vein,
Joseph Cirincione called for greater attention to regional security situa-
tions that are often a main driver behind nuclear proliferation.5 In fact,
the origin of Iran’s nuclear pursuit was due in large part to considerations
of regional order in the Middle East in the 1970s. During the Shah’s rule,
then U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger pushed for substantial arms
sales to Iran and helped Iran launch its own nuclear weapons program.
These efforts were made in consideration of Iran’s regional strategic role
vis-à-vis the Soviet Union.6 Similarly, North Korea’s nuclear pursuit inten-
sified in the early 1990s when the regional strategic landscape surround-
ing the Korean Peninsula was transformed in the wake of Russia’s and
China’s diplomatic normalization with South Korea.
However, the plea for exploring the regional underpinnings of nuclear
crises has not been systematically taken up by the vast literatures on the
This book contends that the regional role conceptions of North Korea’s
and Iran’s neighbors—the pursuit of new regional roles and status in the
changing regional and global environments—shape regional actors’
threat perceptions and policy preferences vis-à-vis North Korea and
Iran, which in turn affects alliance relations and regionalism in East
Asia and the Middle East. Despite the U.S. frame of North Korea and
Iran primarily as the global nuclear menace, the two countries present a
dual challenge as newly nuclear or nuclear-seeking global rogue states
and, at the same time, traditional regional security issues. At the global
level, the two countries are the remaining members of what President
George W. Bush called the “axis of evil,” a band of global rogues bent on
disrupting the international nonproliferation regime. Hence, Bush offi-
cials contended that the two countries represented one of the two major
security challenges against which a widespread global campaign should
be pursued.8
In East Asia and the Middle East, however, the global rogue frame did
not take root. This is because the global narrative is fundamentally at
odds with the regional debate centered on multiple understandings of
Global nuclear proliferation and regional orders in East Asia and the
Middle East are among the most crucial topics in world politics in the
Regional Powerhouse
North Korea
as a
platform
Major Regional
East Asian Hub
Player
Figure 1.1:
North Korea and Regional Roles
the East Asian states, North Korea is not a clear-cut threat but a staging
ground for each nation’s respective new regional role and vision.58
In a close parallel with the East Asian case, Iran’s nuclear pursuit and
the global response led by the Bush administration also intersected with
Middle Eastern states’ search for a new regional role. In contrast to the
familiar narrative of Iran’s nuclear ambition as a key global proliferation
challenge, most of Iran’s neighbors not only improved their diplomatic re-
lations with Tehran but also expanded economic and social exchanges
with Iran in the hopes of playing a greater regional role and enhancing
their regional status.
Turkey, for instance, has pursued a new regional vision centered on An-
kara’s active involvement in regional affairs and Turkey’s independent re-
gional role. In this strategic shift, Turkey’s threat perception also changed
as the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) deemphasized “Is-
lamic threat” in the region and engaged Iran and Iraq as regional neigh-
bors.59 Moreover, despite Turkey’s status as a U.S. ally, its efforts to
improve ties with anti-Western regional players such as Iran, Hamas, and
Syria also strengthened Ankara’s status within the Middle East.60
Similarly, Gulf states such as Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emir-
ates have intensified their engagement with Iran with the larger goal of
enhancing their regional status and promoting their regional autonomy.
This regional drive continued in the face of the nuclear standoff between
Washington and Tehran and the threat of the U.S. military strikes on Iran.
While expanding their ties with Tehran both politically and economically,
Role Conf lict and Domestic Contestation over the Meaning of North
Korea and Iran
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx et Corolla.
2. Corolla et Stamina.
3. Calyx lente auctus.
4. Stamina a Pistillo diducta, antherâ unâ lente auctâ.
5. Stylus et Stigma, lente aucta.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, with beardless tips without the blossoms, which are pitcher-shaped;
cup double, clammy, tiled, coloured, and almost the length of the blossoms;
leaves grow by threes, even, appearing cut off at the point, and linear.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem shrubby, upright, a span high; the larger and smaller branches are
numerous, covered with leaves, and upright.
Leaves grow by threes, straight out, appearing cut off at the point, flat,
even, and having their footstalks pressed to the branches.
Flowers grow in bunches, generally three together, at the ends of the
smaller branches, hanging downward; footstalks the length of the cup.
Empalement. Cup double, pressed to the blossom, tiled: the leaves are
egg-shaped, clammy, and flesh-coloured.
Blossom pitcher-shaped, flesh-coloured at the mouth, which has its
segments blunt, small, and upright.
Chives. Eight hair-like threads, bent inwards. Tips beardless, and without
the blossom.
Pointal. Seed-bud nearly round. Shaft thread-shaped, the length of the
chives. Summit four-cornered.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from July till October.
REFERENCE.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx, et Corolla.
2. Calyx lente auctus.
3. Stamina, et Pistillum.
4. Stamina a Pistillo diducta; anthera una lente aucta.
5. Stylus, et Stigma, lente aucta.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, with crested tips, nearly within the blossoms, which are almost egg-
shaped, and flesh-coloured; the foot-stalks are very long, and coloured; the
leaves grow by fours.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem nearly upright, a foot high, and very much branched; the larger and
smaller branches grow zigzag, and spread outward.
Leaves grow by fours, are blunt, linear, smooth, and furrowed
underneath; with short foot-stalks pressed to the branches.
The Flowers grow at the end of the smaller branches, forming a close
bunch; the foot-stalks are very long, and purple, having three floral leaves.
Empalement. Cup four-leaved, which are egg-shaped, keeled, and
pointed.
Blossom nearly egg-shaped, bending downward, and flesh-coloured, the
mouth contracted, but slightly cut into four upright segments.
Chives. Eight hair-like threads, fixed into the receptacle. Tips crested,
nearly within the blossom.
Pointal. Seed-vessel nearly round. Shaft thread-shaped, and without the
blossom. Summit four-cornered.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from July, till October.
REFERENCE.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath with tips two horned at the base and within the blossom, the shaft
without; blossoms flask-shaped, an inch and a half long, the segments heart-
shaped and spreading; flowers growing by threes mostly; leaves grow by
threes, are three-sided, awl-shaped, upright and spreading.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem thread-shaped and upright; the branches are quite simple, thread
shaped, long, and spreading.
Leaves grow by threes, are three-sided, sharp, awl-shaped, sawed at the
edge, pressed to the stem at the base, spreading towards the end, and forming
six angles.
Flowers terminate the branches generally by threes, grow horizontal,
and in bunches; the foot-stalks are purple, having three oval, coloured floral
leaves.
Empalement. Cup of four leaves, which are egg-shaped, clammy, and
purple.
Blossom, clammy, an inch and a half long, the upper part cylindrical,
swelled at the base, and pinched in at the mouth; the segments spreading,
nearly egg-shaped and very large.
Chives. Eight hair-like threads. Tips two horned at the base, tapered to
the points and within the blossom.
Pointal. Seed-bud egg-shaped and furrowed. Shaft thread-shaped and
without the blossom. Summit four-cornered.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from July, till November.
REFERENCE.
1. A Leaf, magnified.
2. The Empalement, magnified.
3. The Empalement, and Blossom.
4. The Chives, and Pointal.
5. The Chives detached from the Pointal, one tip magnified.
6. The Shaft and its Summit magnified.
ERICA lateralis.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx et Corolla.
2. Calyx, auctus.
3. Corolla.
4. Stamina, et Pistillum.
5. Stamina a Pistillo diducta, anthera una lente aucta.
6. Pistillum, lente auctum.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath with crested tips, within the blossom; which is purple, between bell
and pitcher-shaped, flat at the base; foot-stalks very long; flowers grow in
umbels at the end of the branches, point all one way and hang down; leaves
grow by fours, are blunt and very smooth.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem shrubby, upright, grows a foot high; branches nearly simple, twiggy
and thread-shaped.
Leaves grow by fours, linear, blunt, almost three-sided, thickish, very
short foot-stalks, which are pressed to the stem.
Flowers grow in umbels, at the end of the larger and smaller branches,
nodding, all pointing one way, and are purple; foot-stalks thrice the length of
the flowers, coloured, and three small floral leaves upon them.
Empalement. Cup four-leaved, leaflets small, pressed to the blossom,
fringed and awl-shaped.
Blossom approaching to bell-shape; the lower part flat, and purple; the
segments of the border are blunt and rather upright
Chives. Eight hair-like threads, turned inwards at the upper part. Tips
crested, deep purple, and within the blossom.
Pointal. Seed-bud turban-shaped, furrowed, glandular at the base. Shaft
longer than the chives, without the blossom. Summit four-cornered and
greenish.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from August, till December.
REFERENCE.
1. The Empalement, and Blossom.
2. The Empalement, magnified.
3. The Blossom.
4. The Chives, and Pointal.
5. The Chives detached from the Pointal, one Tip magnified.
6. The Pointal, magnified.