Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PDF How Negotiations End Negotiating Behavior in The Endgame I William Zartman Ebook Full Chapter
PDF How Negotiations End Negotiating Behavior in The Endgame I William Zartman Ebook Full Chapter
https://textbookfull.com/product/i-william-zartman-a-pioneer-in-
conflict-management-and-area-studies-essays-on-contention-and-
governance-i-william-zartman/
https://textbookfull.com/product/i-follow-aristotle-how-william-
harvey-discovered-the-circulation-of-the-blood-1st-edition-
cunningham/
https://textbookfull.com/product/how-to-end-the-autism-epidemic-
j-b-handley/
https://textbookfull.com/product/how-development-projects-
persist-everyday-negotiations-with-guatemalan-ngos-erin-beck/
The End Of Law: Carl Schmitt In The Twenty-First
Century Second Edition. Edition William E. Scheuerman
https://textbookfull.com/product/the-end-of-law-carl-schmitt-in-
the-twenty-first-century-second-edition-edition-william-e-
scheuerman/
https://textbookfull.com/product/endgame-inside-the-impeachment-
of-donald-j-trump-first-edition-eric-swalwell/
https://textbookfull.com/product/negotiating-the-impossible-how-
to-break-deadlocks-and-resolve-ugly-conflicts-without-money-or-
muscle-deepak-malhotra/
https://textbookfull.com/product/the-rule-how-i-beat-the-odds-in-
the-markets-and-in-life-and-how-you-can-too-1st-edition-larry-
hite/
https://textbookfull.com/product/dealmaking-in-the-film-
television-industry-from-negotiations-to-final-contracts-mark-
litwak/
How Negotiations End
Whilst past studies have examined when and how negotiations begin,
and how wars end, this is the first full-length work to analyze the closing
phase of negotiations. It identifies endgame as a definable phase in
negotiation, with specific characteristics, as the parties involved sense
that the end is in sight and decide whether or not they want to reach it.
The authors further classify different types of negotiator behavior char-
acteristic of this phase, drawing out various components, including
mediation, conflict management vs. resolution, turning points, uncer-
tainty, and home relations, amongst others. A number of specific cases
are examined to illustrate this analysis, including Colombian negoti-
ations with FARC, Greece and the EU, Iranian nuclear proliferation,
French friendship treaties with Germany and Algeria, Chinese business
negotiations, and trade negotiations in Asia. This pioneering work will
appeal to scholars and advanced students of negotiation in international
relations, international organization, and business studies.
Edited by
I. William Zartman
The Johns Hopkins University
University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom
One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006, USA
477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia
314–321, 3rd Floor, Plot 3, Splendor Forum, Jasola District Centre,
New Delhi – 110025, India
79 Anson Road, #06–04/06, Singapore 079906
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781108475839
DOI: 10.1017/9781108567466
© Cambridge University Press 2019
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2019
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Zartman, I. William, editor.
Title: How negotiations end : negotiating behavior in the endgame / edited by
I. William Zartman.
Description: Cambridge, United Kingdom ; New York, NY, USA : Johns
Hopkins University, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2018045933 | ISBN 9781108475839 (hbk) |
ISBN 9781108469098 (pbk)
Subjects: LCSH: Negotiation. | Decision making.
Classification: LCC BF637.N4 H687 2019 | DDC 302.3–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018045933
ISBN 978-1-108-47583-9 Hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy
of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
Contents
Introduction 1
i. william zartman
Part I Cases 25
1 The Iranian Nuclear Negotiations 27
ariane tabatabai and camille pease
2 Greek–EU Debt Dueling in the Endgame 46
diana panke
3 Colombia’s Farewell to Civil War 62
carlo nasi and angelika rettberg
4 Chinese Business Negotiations: Closing the Deal 83
guy olivier faure
5 France’s Reconciliations with Germany and Algeria 104
valerie rosoux
6 Closure in Bilateral Negotiations: APEC-Member Free
Trade Agreements 122
larry crump
v
vi Contents
References 304
Index 341
Figures
vii
Tables
viii
Contributors
ix
Acknowledgements
x
About the Processes of International
Negotiation (PIN) Network at the German
Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
xi
xii About the PIN Network
Emeritus Members
Rudolf Avenhaus, The German Armed Forces University, Munich
Gunnar Sjöstedt, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs
Franz Cede, University of Budapest
Mordechai Melamud, CTBTO
PIN Publications
Zartman, I. William (ed.). 2019. How Negotiations End: Negotiating Behavior in
the Endgame. Cambridge University Press.
Rosoux, Valerie & Anstey, Mark (eds.). 2018. Negotiating Reconciliation in Peace-
making. Springer.
Troitskiy, Mikhail & Hampson, Fen Osler (eds.). 2017. Tug of War: Negotiating
Security in Eurasia. Center for International Governance Innovation.
Zartman I. William (ed.). 2015. Arab Spring: Negotiating in the Shadow of the
Intifada. University of Georgia Press.
Melamud, Mordechai, Meerts, Paul & I. William Zartman (eds.). 2014. Banning
the Bang or the Bomb? Negotiating the Test Ban Treaty. Cambridge University
Press.
Faure, Guy Olivier (ed.). 2012. Unfinished Business: Why International Negoti-
ations Fail. University of Georgia Press.
Zartman, I. William, Anstey, M. A. & Meerts, P. (eds.), 2012. The Slippery Slope
to Genocide: Reducing Identity Conflicts and Preventing Mass Murder. Oxford
University Press.
Zartman, I. William & Faure, Guy Olivier (eds.). 2011. Engaging Extremists. US
Institute of Peace Press.
About the PIN Network xiii
Faure, Guy Olivier & Zartman, I. William (eds.), 2010. Negotiating with Terrorists.
Routledge.
Aleksy-Szucsich, A. (ed.). 2009. The Art of International Negotiations. Żurawia
Papers Volume 14. Institute of International Relations, University of
Warsaw.
Avenhaus, R. & Sjöstedt G. (eds.). 2009. Negotiated Risks: International Talks on
Hazardous Issues. Springer.
Bercovitch, Jacob, Kremenyuk, Victor A. & Zartman, I. William (eds.). 2008.
The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution. Sage.
Avenhaus, R. & Zartman, I. William (eds.). 2007. Diplomacy Games. Formal
Models and International Negotiations. Springer.
Zartman, I. William & Faure, Guy Olivier (eds.). 2005. Escalation and Negotiation
in International Conflicts. Cambridge University Press.
Zartman, I. William & Kremenyuk, Victor A. (eds.). 2005. Peace versus Justice:
Negotiating Forward- and Backward-Looking Outcomes. Rowman and Littlefield.
Spector, B. I. & Zartman, I. William (eds.). 2005. Getting It Done: Post-agreement
Negotiations and International Regimes. US Institute of Peace Press.
Meerts, P. & Cede, F. (eds.). 2004. Negotiating European Union. Palgrave
Macmillan.
Sjöstedt, G. & Lang, W. (eds.) 2003. Professional Cultures in International Negoti-
ation. Bridge or Rift? Lexington Books.
Faure, Guy Olivier. 2003. How People Negotiate: Resolving Disputes in Different
Cultures. Kluwer Academic.
Avenhaus, R., Kremenyuk, Victor A. & Sjöstedt, G. (eds.). 2002. Containing the
Atom: International Negotiations on Nuclear Security and Safety. Lexington Books.
Kremenyuk, Victor A. (ed.). 2002. International Negotiation. Analysis, Approaches,
Issues (second edition). Jossey-Bass.
Zartman, I. William (ed.). 2001. Preventive Negotiation: Avoiding Conflict Escal-
ation. Rowman & Littlefield.
Sjöstedt, G. & Kremenyuk, V. (eds.). 2000. International Economic Negotiation:
Models versus Reality. Edward Elgar.
Zartman, I. William & Rubin, Jeffrey Z. (eds.). 2000. Power and Negotiation. The
University of Michigan Press.
Berton, P., Kimura, Hiroshi & Zartman, I. William (eds.). 1999. International
Negotiation: Actors, Structure/Process, Values. St. Martin’s Press.
Zartman, I. William (ed.). 1994. International Multilateral Negotiation: Approaches
to the Management of Complexity. Jossey-Bass.
Spector, B. I. (ed.). 1993. Decision Support systems in Negotiation, special issue of
Theory and Decision XXXIV(3).
Spector, B. I., Sjöstedt, G. & Zartman, I. William (eds.). 1994. Negotiating Inter-
national Regimes: Lessons Learned from the United Nations Conference on Environ-
ment and Development (UNCED). Graham & Trotman/Martinus Nijhoff.
Faure, Guy Olivier & Rubin, Jeffrey. Z. (eds.). 1993. Culture and Negotiation. The
Resolution of Water Disputes. Sage.
Sjöstedt, G. (ed.). 1993. International Environmental Negotiation. Sage.
Mautner-Markhof, F. (ed.). 1989. Processes of International Negotiations. Westview
Press.
Introduction
I. William Zartman
1
The best treatment, of use in the present discussion, is, as usual Pillar (1983, 119–143),
looking at concession rates. The penultimate chapter in Ikle (1964) concentrates mainly
on behavior in the main part of the process. Shell (1999) examines closure tactics.
Gulliver (1979, 153–168) also looks at concession behavior. What is remarkable is that
none of these approaches has been pursued into a fuller analysis, or followed by any
literature in the past thirty years.
1
2 Introduction
While these are the headline cases that make the inquiry so timely,
other instances stand out as well to attract attention. In negotiating
friendship treaties with Algeria and with Germany, a recall of the deep
scars derailed the process at the end in the first case but not in the
second, as analyzed in Chapter 5 by Valerie Rosoux. Closure is a major
issue in Chinese–Western business negotiations, where the relation is the
key and the agreement itself is incidental and epiphenomenal, and is
marked by typical but personal behaviors, as Guy Olivier Faure shows in
Chapter 4. Larry Crump shows that endgame in trade bilaterals is
sharpened by deadlines and taken over by political decision-makers.
Endgame, or the closure phase of the negotiations, occurs when the
parties, after having taken stock of where they are in the process, come to
the conclusion that an end – positive or negative – is in sight and they
need to address their behavior to making it happen. The upcoming
round(s) will move to a conclusion, and holding out thereafter for further
major gains would be costly and unproductive (Pillar 1983; Gulliver
1979). This phase is usually introduced by a Turning Point of Closure
as the negotiations turn from formula to details; as usual, the point may
be sharper in concept than in real time but nonetheless is of relevance. It
is sometimes preceded by a break in the negotiations to take stock and
produce a reframing of the issues, or by an important concession that
breaks the deadlock and opens the way to lesser, reciprocal concessions.
At this point negotiators sense an acceptable end toward which they are
driving, still trying to inflect it in a jointly or separately preferred direc-
tion or otherwise bring the negotiations to an end, although they may also
be engaging in a dueling or Indian wrestling game for competing
outcomes.2
There is no telling when that realization will arrive; it is a sense that the
negotiators come to during the process, alluded to using the same term
“sense” by Faure in Chapter 4. The conflict/problem and relevant pro-
posals have been thoroughly aired, the preliminaries are out of the way,
diagnosis and pre-negotiations have been handled and the negotiations
2
Pillar’s (1983, 119, 128) identification is “The first transition [Turning Point of
Seriousness] occurs when the bargainers come to view an agreement as possible; the
second [Turning Point of Closure] marks the moment they begin viewing it as probable.
At the end of Phase Two, the gap between the two positions has narrowed to where they
can now see the conclusion of the negotiation – most likely a successful one but a
conclusion in any case. The slack is gone from the negotiations, the remaining
differences are as clear as they will ever be, and the parties see their subsequent
decisions as resulting possibly in the breaking off of talks but not in their indefinite
prolongation. Phase Two usually ends with one side making a major concession that
ends the waiting game and makes the overall shape of the agreement clear for the first
time . . . There will be overall reciprocation which was largely absent in Phase Two.”
4 Introduction
have been going on for a while, the positions and interests have been
made clear, the formula (or competing formulas) have been established,
everything is on the table, and the dimensions of a Zone of Possible
Agreement (ZOPA) are clear and shared, although these understandings
may be revisited during the ensuing process. That sense of closure can
come as a prospective view, looking forward from where things stand and
the direction in which they lean: “there gradually emerged a sense that a
moment of new opportunity might be presenting itself” in the words of
Harold Saunders (1985, 289) on “The Beginning of the End” of the Iran
hostage negotiations But it can also come retrospectively, counting back
from a deadline that would close the process: “A great agreement is
within their [Bosnians’] grasp . . . We must give everyone a drop-dead
time limit. I mean really close Dayton down. This should not be a bluff,”
said Secretary Warren Christopher, and Richard Holbrooke (1998,
304–305) told them as he left, “We must have your answer within an
hour . . . Not suspend – close down. In an hour.”
If there is an agreement it will be overall less than the parties wanted
but enough to justify conclusion, either by signing or by leaving. Closure
situations come in two types: negotiations that reach an agreement when
Not Enough in comparison with original hopes and demands is still
enough to make an agreement (Type I), and those that do not reach
agreement because Enough was not enough (Type II). In the successful
cases (Type I), the parties agree even though they do not reach their
stated goals or bottom lines; a partial agreement was deemed sufficient to
provide a positive outcome. In the unsuccessful cases (Type II), the
parties settle important issues but even that amount of agreement is not
sufficient to warrant a final positive outcome. Under what conditions do
parties agree to agree on what (and what not) to agree on and under what
conditions is the progress insufficient to constitute the basis for an
agreement, and how do they behave in the last round?
Obviously the situations are on a spectrum, with extremes at either
end. There may be situations where both parties can get all they came
for; it is assumed that such situations are rare and, for present purposes,
uninteresting. There may also be situations where what they came for is
something else than an agreement, that there is no agreement on any-
thing, the parties are not ready to negotiate, and may be acting for side
effects (time, publicity, reputation, etc.) (Ikle 1964). These too are
outside this inquiry. But the assumption is that most cases of negotiation
are in the big gray area in the middle, where the parties cannot get
everything they want or thought they deserved, where red lines have to
be breached in spots, and yet they sense that the/an end is near and
attainable, where the rising question, as the end approaches, is whether
Introduction 5
Patterns of Closure
Once the negotiations enter into this final phase, how do they proceed?
The initial quotations and others’ analyses indicate that specific behav-
iors appear to be associated with the move toward closure, which are
different from behaviors during the previous course of negotiations
(Douglas 1962; Gulliver 1979; Zartman & Berman 1982; Pillar 1983;
Bartos 1976). Endgame behaviors look ahead toward the conclusion to
which they are aiming or heading and act strategically in order to get
there, a characteristic shared with endgame strategies both in Chess and
in Go (Frey 2016; Shotwell 2005). Such behaviors of course relate to the
basic process (as also in Chess and Go), to distributive and integrative
bargaining, to conflict management and conflict resolution, to payoff
maximizing or satisficing, etc. But whatever the particular outcome
pursued, the negotiators select various patterns of behavior to move them
to closure. What behaviors are typical and required to get the parties to
Yes (to refer to the title of a book that does not focus on this point in the
process)? What variables are helpful in analyzing the situation? In a word,
how do negotiators behave when they feel that they are close to the end of
negotiations, and why? Are there common dynamics and identifiable
patterns of behavior in the endgame? These are the questions that this
study addresses.
Some such modes stand out; others may appear less prominently, but
several predominate. Five different patterns of behavior appear very
clearly in model form (and muddily but nonetheless distinguishably in
reality): dueling, driving, dragging, mixed, and mismatched.3 The first two
patterns are reciprocal; the parties react to each other in the same terms
and expect that reciprocation: toughness leads to toughness, as in
3
Somewhat similar modes from different angles have been advanced in Pruitt (1981), Shell
(1999), and Ury, Brett, & Goldberg (1987).
6 Introduction
4
There are a number of calculations for critical risk; the most complete one is the ratio of
the difference between victory and losing (the southwest and northeast corners in a
Prisoners’ Dilemma Game matrix) and the difference between victory and deadlock
(the southeast corner) (Zeuthen 1930, 147; Pillar 1983, 93; Snyder & Diesing 1977,
49–52). Critical risk is a useful heuristic but more difficult to calculate than its definition
would suggest.
8 Introduction
Ar
YShi
Ey
Yr
Er
YE
E
Br
YSlo
Ex
X X
I XSlo XE Xr XShi B
Y