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Ultra High Risk (UHR) For Psychosis Criteria Are There Different Levels of Risk For Transition To Psychosis - Nelson, Yuen, Yung
Ultra High Risk (UHR) For Psychosis Criteria Are There Different Levels of Risk For Transition To Psychosis - Nelson, Yuen, Yung
Schizophrenia Research
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / s c h r e s
Ultra high risk (UHR) for psychosis criteria: Are there different levels of risk
for transition to psychosis?
B. Nelson ⁎, K. Yuen, A.R. Yung
Orygen Youth Health Research Centre, Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: Introduction: The ultra high risk (UHR) for psychosis criteria have been validated in a number
Received 7 June 2010
of studies. However, it is not known whether particular UHR criteria (Attenuated Psychotic
Received in revised form 13 October 2010
Symptoms (APS), Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) or Trait vulnerability
Accepted 14 October 2010
Available online 12 November 2010 criteria), or combination of criteria, is associated with a higher risk of transition to psychosis.
The current study investigated this issue over a 6-month follow-up period. We hypothesised
that the risk of transition would increase in the following order: Trait alone b APS alone b APS +
Keywords:
Trait b BLIPS.
Psychosis
Prodrome Method: Data on UHR intake criteria and transition to psychosis status at 6 months were
High risk analysed for UHR patients seen at the PACE clinic, Orygen Youth Health between January 2000
and November 2008.
Results: A total of 928 new referrals were accepted into the PACE clinic over this period of
whom 817 (88%) had baseline information available for analysis. The percentage of subjects
who presented with APS, Trait and BLIPS were 83%, 27% and 4%, respectively. When the two
intermediate groups (APS alone and APS + Trait) were combined, there was evidence that the
risk of transition increased in the order of Trait alone b APS b BLIPS (p = 0.024, adjusted
analysis).
Conclusions: Our data suggest that UHR intake criteria predict transition over 6 months in the
order of Trait alone b APS b BLIPS. The fact that BLIPS patients are at the highest risk of transition
over the short term is consistent with the “early” versus “late” prodrome model. It also
indicates that particular clinical attention may need to be paid to BLIPS patients, especially early
in the course of treatment.
© 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
0920-9964/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.schres.2010.10.017
B. Nelson et al. / Schizophrenia Research 125 (2011) 62–68 63
(Cannon et al., 2008; Mason et al., 2004; Yung et al., 2003). proposed by the German Research Network on Schizophrenia
Ruhrmann et al (2003) estimated that the average 1 year rate (GRNS) (Bechdolf et al., 2005; Ruhrmann et al., 2007;
of transition to psychosis across centres in UHR subjects who Ruhrmann et al). In this model, the Trait group and subjects
did not receive antipsychotic medication to be 36.7%. with “basic symptoms” are thought to be in the “early” phase
However, it remains unclear whether particular UHR of the prodrome, while the APS and BLIPS groups are thought
criteria (i.e., APS, BLIPS or Trait), or combination of criteria, to be in the “late” phase of the prodrome. Accordingly, BLIPS
is associated with a higher risk of transition to psychosis. It is and APS subjects are thought to be closer to transition to
of value to know this because it may clarify whether par- psychosis than subjects in the “early” phase, including Trait
ticular UHR patients are at higher risk of transition than subjects. There is some empirical support for this model (see
others. In previous work, the data suggested that presence of Bechdolf et al., 2005; Ruhrmann et al., 2007).
both APS and Trait criteria was a significant predictor of
psychosis within a 12-month follow-up period (Yung et al., 2. Method
2004b). In another study, we found that the transition rate
has been decreasing over time (from 1995 to 2000) for all 2.1. Setting and sample
UHR subjects, and particularly among those who meet both
the APS and Trait criteria (Yung et al., 2007). Additional Orygen Youth Health (OYH) is a public mental health
significant predictors for onset of psychotic disorder in this service for young people aged between 15 and 25 years living
study were a long duration of symptoms prior to entry to the in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. The clinical service
service, high levels of depression, and reduced attention. The consists of an inpatient facility, crisis support team and three
recent North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) continuing care teams: EPPIC (the Early Psychosis Prevention
(Addington et al., 2007; Cannon et al., 2008) found that and Intervention Centre) for patients with first episode
independent predictive variables at baseline included a genetic psychosis, PACE (the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evalu-
risk for schizophrenia (assessed through family history of ation) for UHR patients, and Youthscope for young people
psychotic disorder) with a recent deterioration in functioning, with non-psychotic disorders. Referrals to OYH are accepted
higher levels of unusual thought content, higher levels of from a range of sources, including general practitioners and
suspicion/paranoia, greater social impairment, and a history of other primary care services, educational support services,
substance abuse. drug and alcohol services, carers, families and young people
Using a large data set of 817 subjects, the current study is themselves. A central Triage service takes all referrals and
an attempt to investigate whether the risk of transition to refers to the appropriate clinic based on clinical judgement
psychotic disorder within the first 6 months of admission and semi-structured clinical interviews. Prior to August 2006
differs between UHR subjects who meet the different UHR the age range accepted to PACE was 15–30 years. This age
criteria. We examined transition rates over a 6-month period, range was amended to 15–25 years since then to accord with
as this period has been found in previous studies to be the other clinics at OYH.
highest risk period for transition (Cannon et al., 2008; Yung Young people are accepted to PACE if they meet at least
et al., 2004b). Four subgroups were initially set up to classify one of the three sets of UHR criteria: APS, BLIPS and Trait (see
UHR subjects: presence of BLIPS (regardless of APS and Trait Table 1). Exclusion criteria for PACE are presence of a current
status), presence of APS and Trait but no BLIPS (APS + Trait), or past psychotic disorder, known organic cause for presen-
APS alone and Trait alone. We hypothesised that the risk of tation, or past use of neuroleptics equivalent to a total
transition across the subgroups would increase in the continuous haloperidol dose of N50 mg.
following order: Trait alone b APS alone b APS + Trait b BLIPS. The study aimed to assess all UHR patients seen at the
The expectation that APS + Trait would have a higher PACE clinic between January 2000 and November 2008 at
transition rate than both APS alone and Trait alone was baseline and 6 months. The study was approved by the local
based on our previous finding using a sample size of 114 research and ethics committee.
that APS + Trait displayed the highest transition rate over
12 months (Yung et al., 2004b). The expectation that BLIPS 2.2. Instruments
would have the highest risk of transition was based on the
fact that this group have already experienced full-threshold Intake criteria were assessed using the Comprehensive
positive psychotic symptoms and therefore could be at Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS) (Yung et al.,
highest risk of relapse of these symptoms for a longer 2005). The CAARMS is a semi-structured interview that
duration. In addition, if the decreasing transition rate over assesses a range of prodromal symptomatology. The exposure
time for APS + Trait subjects compared to other UHR subjects of interest was UHR intake criteria (BLIPS, APS and/or Trait).
is a persistent trend coupled with the fact that only a small This was assessed using the CAARMS, Global Assessment of
percentage of subjects present with all three characteristics, Functioning (GAF) (Association, 1994) and the Family
the BLIPS subgroup may display in more recent data a higher Interview for Genetic Studies (FIGS) (Maxwell, 1992).
transition rate than the APS + Trait subgroup. The large
sample size in the current study has enabled us to examine 2.3. Procedure
the data with a more refined hypothesis than in previous
studies. All assessments conducted to determine intake criteria
The hypothesis that the Trait alone subgroup has a lower were carried out by a trained research assistant or clinician.
risk than both BLIPS and APS over the short term is also The outcome of interest was transition to psychotic disorder,
consistent with the “early” versus “late” prodrome model which was defined as per previous research as over 1 week of
64 B. Nelson et al. / Schizophrenia Research 125 (2011) 62–68
Table 1
Ultra high risk criteria: (1) must be aged between 15 and 25 years (15 to 30 years prior to August 2006), (2) have been referred to a specialized service for help,
and (3) meet the criteria for one or more of the following three groups.
Group 1: Attenuated positive psychotic symptoms • Presence of at least one of the following symptoms: ideas of reference, odd beliefs
or magical thinking, perceptual disturbance, paranoid ideation, odd thinking and
speech, odd behavior and appearance
• Frequency of symptoms: at least several times a week
• Recency of symptoms: present within the last year
• Duration of symptoms: present for at least 1 week and no longer than 5 years
Group 2: Brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms • Transient psychotic symptoms. Presence of at least one of the following: ideas of
reference, magical thinking, perceptual disturbance, paranoid ideation, odd thinking
or speech
• Duration of episode: less than 1 week
• Frequency of symptoms: at least several times per week
• Symptoms resolve spontaneously
• Recency of symptoms: must have occurred within the last year
Group 3: Trait and state risk factors • Schizotypal personality disorder in the identified individual, or a first-degree relative
with a psychotic disorder
• Significant decline in mental state or functioning, maintained for at least 1 month and
not longer than 5 years
• This decline in functioning must have occurred within the past year
clear threshold level psychotic symptoms (delusions, hallu- Medical records record all contact with public mental health
cinations and formal thought disorder), and approximates services in the State of Victoria.
the level at which antipsychotic medication would be
commenced in common clinical practice (Yung et al., 2003). 2.4. Statistical analysis
This was assessed using the CAARMS. 307 subjects (38%) had
no follow-up CAARMS data available. For these cases, State Time to transition to psychosis was measured from first
Medical records were checked to ascertain if any psychiatric presentation to PACE. Transition rates over time were
services were accessed by the individual and if so, records calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Transition within
were reviewed to determine psychosis status. The State 6 months was considered as an event in the analysis. Log rank
Table 2
Baseline characteristics of the sample (N = 817).
Total 817
Female 484 59%
Age at presentation (yr) median: 18
range: 14–29
Year of presentation
2000–2002 186 23%
2003–2004 243 30%
2005–2006 210 26%
2007–2008 178 22%
UHR status
Trait alone 117 14%
APS alone 572 70%
APS + Trait 92 11%
BLIPS 36 4%
Estimated % transitioned
when subgroups consisted of ordered categories, a test for
trend was used. All p-values are 2-sided. Two multivariable 8
analyses were performed. For the first analysis involving all
817 subjects, the association of transition rate with intake 6
group status was examined after adjusting for sex, age,
treatment with antipsychotic medication (risperidone), year 4
of presentation, and whether the subject was previously
involved in trials or not. An additional variable GAF was 2
added in the second analysis; as information on GAF was only
available for 540 subjects, this analysis was performed using a 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
reduced data set. Treatment with lithium was not included in
any of the multivariable analyses above as none of the 21 Months following first presentation to PACE
Number at risk
subjects who had been prescribed lithium had transitioned. 817 796 773 770 760 753 0
This variable, if included, would lead to spurious results in the
parameter estimates. Instead, we performed a univariable Fig. 2. Time to transition — overall.
analysis of the significance of treatment with lithium on the
rate of transition using an exact log-rank test. This test was subjects corresponding to each possible combination of the
based on the distribution of the sum of independent three UHR criteria. The percentage of subjects who presented
hypergeometric random variables and we found that the with APS, Trait and BLIPS were 83%, 27% and 4%, respectively.
result was not statistically significant (p = 0.27). Three subjects (0.4%) met all three UHR criteria. Of the 610
Hazard ratio (HR) representing the risk of transition subjects who entered the PACE clinic prior to August 2006
corresponding to a given subgroup within a factor relative to (when the age range changed), 27 (4.43%) presented with
a designated (reference) subgroup was used to summarise BLIPS. The percentage of subjects presenting with BLIPS was
the prognostic significance of a factor. A hazard ratio of similar among those subjects who entered PACE from August
greater than 1 signifies a higher risk than the reference 2006 (9/207, 4.35%, p = 1.0 [Fisher exact test]). Hence, it does
subgroup and a value of less than 1 signifies a lower risk. not appear that the change in age range from August 2006 in
the ultra high risk criteria influenced the frequency of BLIPS.
3. Results
A total of 928 new referrals were accepted into the PACE 3.2. Overall transition to psychosis
clinic between January 2000 and November 2008 of whom
817 (88%) had baseline information available for analysis. Of the 817 subjects, 72 (8.8%) transitioned to psychosis
208 (25%) cases had participated in trials (41 of within 6 months following first presentation to PACE. See
risperidone (Yung et al., in press), 21 of lithium, and 146 of Fig. 2 for the estimated transition rates over the 6-month
non-pharmacological investigations). period. 24 (33%) of these cases transitioned to a schizophre-
nia spectrum disorder, 10 (14%) to a mood disorder with
3.1. Baseline characteristics psychotic features, and 38 (53%) to Psychotic Disorder Not
Otherwise Specified.
Baseline characteristics of the 817 cases are displayed in
Table 2. Fig. 1 is a Venn diagram showing the number of
14
APS BLIPS (36 cases)
12 APS+Trait (92 cases)
Estimated % transitioned
13 (1.6%) 92 (11%) 6
3 (.4%)
BLIPS 4
Trait
15 (1.8%) 117 (14%)
5 (.6%) 2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Months following first presentation to PACE
Fig. 1. Venn diagram displaying the number and percentage of subjects
corresponding to each combination of the three UHR groups. Fig. 3. Time to transition by intake group status (four levels).
66 B. Nelson et al. / Schizophrenia Research 125 (2011) 62–68
14
transition (p = 0.09, Table 4). The risk of transition decreased
BLIPS (36 cases) with increasing GAF score (p = 0.06).
12 APS (664 cases)
Estimated % transitioned
Table 3
Time to transition by intake group adjusting for sex, age, treatment with antipsychotic medication, year of presentation, and research status (72 transitioned cases
from 817 subjects).
Table 4
Time to transition by intake group adjusting for sex, age, treatment with antipsychotic medication, year of presentation, research status and GAF (43 transitioned
cases from 540 subjects).
intervention strategy (McGorry et al., 2006, 2007). The the UHR population. The findings particularly suggest that
current findings are consistent with the GRNS model of the close monitoring and possibly more intensive intervention for
Trait group being in the “early” phase of the prodrome. UHR patients who meet BLIPS criteria is warranted. The
The findings have some implications for clinical practice. relative efficacy of different intervention strategies for UHR
First, given the increased risk of transition of BLIPS subjects, subjects who meet the different intake criteria should be the
clinicians working with UHR patients may need to pay subject of future research. The longer term outcome of this
particular clinical attention to BLIPS patients, especially cohort will be investigated in future work with a particular
early in the course of treatment. Second, it is possible that focus on ascertaining whether the above relationship be-
BLIPS patients require a different, or a more intensive form of, tween risk of transition and the three levels of intake groups
treatment than other UHR patients. The effect of different holds beyond 6 months.
intervention strategies, e.g., antipsychotic medication, neu-
roprotective agents, and psychosocial interventions (see Role of the funding source
McGorry et al., 2009 for a review), on the different UHR This work was supported by the National Health and Medical Research
Council (NHMRC) Senior Research Fellowship to Prof Yung and by a Ronald
groups remains to be evaluated.
Griffith Fellowship and National Alliance for Research on Schizophrenia and
The strengths of this study include its large sample size Depression (NARSAD) Young Investigator Award to Dr. Nelson, by a NHMRC
and close monitoring of transition outcome in general. The Program Grant (#566529) and by the Colonial Foundation Philanthropic
majority of subjects are either still being treated at PACE or Trust. These funding sources had no role in study design; in the collection,
were involved in research studies in which intensive follow- analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the
decision to submit the paper for publication.
up of subjects was conducted. The study, however, has some
limitations. First, the findings may have been confounded by
Contributors
the fact that subjects received treatment over the follow-up
All authors contributed to and have approved the final manuscript.
period. This included comprehensive psychosocial interven-
tion and, for a subset of patients involved in intervention
Conflict of interest
studies, antipsychotic medication. All subjects received the The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
comprehensive psychosocial intervention in accordance with
the PACE treatment model (Nelson and Yung, 2008; Yung Acknowledgments
et al., 2004a). This may have influenced the “natural course” The authors thank Ms. Annie Bruxner for assisting with data preparation
of UHR subjects. Thus, it is possible that BLIPS patients were and Ms. Jenny Beresford, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, for providing S-
less responsive to these intervention strategies compared to PLUS programming codes for plotting survival graphs.
other UHR patients rather than inherently being at higher risk
of imminent transition. Second, baseline functioning data References
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