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Springer Geography
Youjia Liang
Lijun Liu
Jiejun Huang
Integrated
Modelling of
Ecosystem Services
and Land-Use
Change
Case Studies of Northwestern Region of
China
Springer Geography
The Springer Geography series seeks to publish a broad portfolio of scientific
books, aiming at researchers, students, and everyone interested in geographical
research. The series includes peer-reviewed monographs, edited volumes, text-
books, and conference proceedings. It covers the major topics in geography and
geographical sciences including, but not limited to; Economic Geography,
Landscape and Urban Planning, Urban Geography, Physical Geography and
Environmental Geography.
Springer Geography—now indexed in Scopus
Integrated Modelling
of Ecosystem Services
and Land-Use Change
Case Studies of Northwestern Region
of China
123
Youjia Liang Lijun Liu
Department of Resources Department of Navigation
and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of Technology
Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan, China
Wuhan, China
Jiejun Huang
Department of Resources
and Environmental Engineering
Wuhan University of Technology
Wuhan, China
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Preface
Humankind depends on land system of nature for its existence; its well-being and
related economic activity is connected with land system by numerous direct and
indirect ties. In addition, ecosystem services have become popular as the desig-
nation for all these benefits that are useful to people in recent years. Land system
not only provides goods for the social-ecological system, such as food, energy, and
water for our daily existence, and industry products and medicinal plants for
healthcare, but also protect us against soil erosion and extreme climate events,
create the oxygen, and bind greenhouse gases by climate regulation, and provide
spiritual inspiration by diverse landscapes with esthetic pleasure, rest, and recre-
ation. However, people often are not even aware of the important role of ecosystem
services, or they see the land-based supply of nature simply as an endlessly bub-
bling without any restrictions and negative consequences. The assessment of
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) summarized that many types of
ecosystem services have reached their critical thresholds over the past decades.
Subsequently, integrated analysis with land system and ecosystem services supply
has become an important interdisciplinary research field to provide the benefits of
ecosystem services for human well-being.
In general, intensive Land-Use and Cover Change (LUCC) involves a complex
spatio-temporal change of the regulatory and sociocultural services rendered in a
typical human-activity area. It is important to identify and improve the available
standing of the nonmarketable and intermediate services by improving the under-
standing for the land-based social-ecological system and the dynamics between
diverse land properties, landscape functions and services, natural capital and their
various beneficial effects at multiple spatio-temporal scales, and in connection with
their different driving forces. Integrated modeling and assessing the ecosystem
services provided by land-based landscapes is in accordance with the widespread
tendency of our society development. The arguments for integrated analysis of
ecosystem services need to be developed to persuade local stakeholders and policy
makers, and also to gain acceptance and support by business and social groups.
Generally, the quantitative results of integrated modeling of ecosystem service are
the standard is easily understood and spread (e.g., economical valuation of
v
vi Preface
Acknowledgements Most case studies in this book were supported by the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (NNSFC, 41601184). We are very grateful for the support from
NNSFC and related individuals. We also are very grateful for all the help from Springer and
related individuals in publishing the book. Finally, my grandmother passed away suddenly on 8th
of August 2017, with the book, I want to say thanks to you, for the wonderful years of care and
company.
Contents
vii
viii Contents
Land-use and cover-change (LUCC) models are useful tools for analyzing different
LUCC dynamic and their driving forces, also in assessing ecological impacts and
consequences of LUCC dynamics and decision-making for land-use planning. How-
ever, single model is not able to capture all the essential key processes to explore
LUCC dynamic at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of
driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. An integrated analysis (IA) approach
was developed to analyze land-use dynamics at multiple spatio-temporal scales, by
integrating system dynamics (SD) model, the Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects
at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model and landscape indices method. The SD
model was used to calculate and predict quantity demands for the area of differ-
ent land-use types at the macro-scale as a whole during the research period. Then,
the LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution using the CLUE-S
model, considering the spatial land-use policies and restrictions to satisfy the bal-
ance between demand and supply of LUCC dynamic. Kappa values of the map
simulation are used to reflect the accuracy of the integrated model. We also evalu-
ated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized scenario managements of
land-use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for bet-
ter understanding the complexity of land-use change and provide scientific support
for land-use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used
as source data for scenario analysis of different ecosystem service processes based
on different underlying surface of LUCC dynamic. We selected Ganzhou District
of Zhangye oasis in northwest China as a case study for the application of the IA
method.
Increased effort has been made to understand the process trends and driving forces
of LUCC dynamic and its ecological consequences in fragile ecological regions (Liu
and Deng 2010; Ojima et al. 2002; Turner et al. 2007). Simulating the processes
of LUCC are crucial for land-use planning and environment management (Lambin
and Geist 2006). LUCC process is determined by the spatio-temporal interactions
between natural and human driving factors at different scales (Julie et al. 2005;
Verburg et al. 2008).
LUCC models are useful quantitative tools for analyzing driving forces and change
of LUCC dynamic. In the past decades, scientists have developed different spatial
explicit models for LUCC simulation in different case studies (Verburg et al. 2004),
but no single model is capable of seizing all processes of LUCC dynamic at the
different spatio-temporal scales (He et al. 2005; Liu et al. 2002; Verburg et al. 2008).
Such spatial explicit models have their own potential advantages and shortcomings
in the different applications of case studies. Some LUCC models only can be used
to represent single LUCC process or cannot show the quality evaluation of model
results. In order to address the gap for these important aspects to LUCC modeling,
it is necessary to develop an IA approach which can better reflect multi-scale LUCC
characteristics, and explicitly simulate spatial-temporal dynamics of LUCC (Ye et al.
2002). In addition, the IA approach also can be used to evaluate the quality of LUCC
results (Liang et al. 2010). Developing an integrated modeling framework is the
fundamental requirement for integrating existing LUCC models and other available
approaches, which also could be a feasible and potential solution for improving the
methodology of land-use science (Ewers 2006; Kalnay and Cai 2003; Quang et al.
2008; Verburg et al. 2004).
SD method can be used to analyze various complex problems in different disci-
plines (Forrester 1971). Further, SD model can be used to simulate system change
with computer models for solving complicated management problems, which also
can predict different land-use demands based on specific socioeconomic conditions
in land-use science (Rizzo et al. 2006; Stave 2003). It is important to develop a SD
model for reflecting human activities and corresponding change in land-use demands
caused by their potential consequences. However, the ability of SD model to reflect
spatial change in different land-use types is still limited (Liang and Xu 2011).
CLUE-S model is specifically developed for spatially explicit simulation of land-
use change based on an empirical analysis of location suitability, by combining with
dynamic simulation of competition and interactions between spatial and temporal
dynamics of land-use systems (Kok et al. 2007; Veldkamp and Fresco 1996; Verburg
et al. 1999). Existing researches also have well documentation that the model is
available for multiple scenarios setting under different social-ecological conditions
of future land-use (Castella et al. 2007; Eickhout et al. 2007). However, the model
lacks the ability to represent the macro-demand for land-use. In such cases, other
available models were introduced to calculate macro-land-use demands at specific
1.1 Integrated Analysis Approach of LUCC 5
spatio-temporal scale, which have become a feasible solution for improving the
limitation of the CLUE-S model (Aspinall 2004; Liang et al. 2010; Wu et al. 2010).
In this case study, an IA approach was developed by the combination of CLUE-S
model and SD model at regional scale, and then integrating with landscape indices to
evaluate the macro-ecological effect of spatio-temporal LUCC dynamic. The main
objectives of the case study are as follows: (1) developing a SD model to calculate
and predict demands of different land-use types at the macro-scale as a whole, which
are based on the influence of different human driving factors; (2) simulating explicit
LUCC processes using CLUE-S model based on demand-driven at a temporal scale;
and (3) evaluating the macro-ecological effect of LUCC dynamic to optimize scenario
management, and also discuss the uncertainty of the integrated analysis approach.
Ganzhou District was selected as the study area, which is located in Zhangye City
of Gansu Province, with a total area of 4240 km2 (Fig. 1.1), and it is also famous
as a typical desert oasis located in the middle reaches of the Heihe River in north-
western China (38°39 –39°24 W, 100°6 –100°52 E). In administrative division, it is
adjacent to Shandan, Gaotai, Linze, Minle, and Sunan counties, and is the economic
and cultural center of Zhangye City. The landform of this area is about an average
elevation of 1474 m above sea level. The average annual precipitation of the region is
113–120 mm, and annual evaporation is 2047 mm. Over the past few decades, local
vegetation and soil have changed significantly due to large-scale land cultivation
and irrigation activities. Thus, the most typical LUCC pattern in the study area is
farm-based land-use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities.
First, Remote Sensing (RS) data was used to characterize LUCC pattern in the study
area, including three Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images in August 1996, July
2000 and July 2005 separately, and the initial data was obtained from the Digital River
Basin website (http://heihe.westgis.ac.cn/). Geo-rectification and mosaic of these
images were conducted using ERDAS image processing software and 1:50,000 scale
topographic maps. And then, we obtained three land-use maps, identifying six general
land-use type, including farmland, woodland, grassland, water area, construction
land, and unused land. Based on the information provided by local residents and
on-site visits, the classification accuracy of the land-use types was estimated to be
94, 96, and 95% for 1996, 2000, and 2005, respectively.
Besides RS data, other auxiliary data also were collected for the IA modeling,
mainly including Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with 100 m resolution, slope
and aspect maps created by DEM data using ArcGIS software, depth and quality
of groundwater in 2000, hydro-geological map (dividing into two types plain–pore
water of the quaternary loose deposits; and mountain–former quaternary bedrock fis-
sures, karsts erosion water and layered water), and soil map at the scale of 1:100,000
(including four categories: desert soil, chestnut soil, gray calcium soil, and meadow
soil). Road and boundary maps came from Chinese basic geographic information at
the scale of 1:4,000,000 (http://nfgis.nsdi.gov.cn/). Population density map was built
by statistical population data of 2000, and the socioeconomic data mainly obtained
from the Statistical Yearbook of Ganzhou District during 1996–2005.
All of these raster data uniformly projected into Transverse Mercator projection,
and reproduced with 500 m resolution by ArcGIS. Based on the aforementioned
data, an integrated GIS database for the study area was developed by merging RS,
biophysical, and census data in the raster or vector format.
model was used to simulate spatial dynamics and conduct top-down implementation
for the spatial allocation of land-use types. Finally, the macro-ecological effect and
scenario managements of land-use pattern was conducted by using landscape indices
(Fig. 1.2).
1.3.1 SD Model
The SD model has been proven to be a useful tool for analyzing the complex con-
nection between LUCC dynamics and socioeconomic development, and it also was
used to reflect different socioeconomic development scenarios at specific temporal
scales (Deng et al. 2004; Fang and Bao 2004; Hilty et al. 2006).
The SD model in this case study was divided into two sections, including the
modules of driving forces and land-use change. The driving force module dealt with
the impact of nonspatial human factors on land-use change. The land-use part focused
on the interaction and conversion between LUCC types driven by nonspatial human
and natural factors, which was built based on Markov transition matrix by contrasting
two images in 1996–2000, and connected with driving force by using two driving
force coefficients K and M, indicating the change of farmland and construction land,
respectively.
Finally, the SD modeling software STELLA7.0 was used to design the stock and
flow diagram according to the causal loop diagram of SD model which automatically
generated the corresponding equations based on the designed stock and flow diagram
(Fig. 1.3). The main variables in this model were shown in Table 1.1. The main
equations of SD model are as follows:
Fig. 1.3 Feedback relationships between different LUCC types in SD model (Dashed shows driving
forces)
The area values of six land-use types at time t are shown in Eqs. 1.1–1.6, and
Ax −E y are conversion coefficients of different land-use types in these equations.
The initial value of farmland A0 and construction land E 0 which are directly linked
to human activities, and they were calculated using Eqs. 1.7–1.8. E_sum indicates
10 1 An Integrated Modeling Analysis …
construction area under the disturbance of human activities, which are generated in
Eqs. 1.9–1.15. The change in population and GDP are calculated in Eqs. 1.16–1.17.
We selected the data of 1996 as a baseline for the simulation of SD model. The
model was calibrated with historical land-use data in 2000 and 2005. The values of
K and M is 0.81 and 0.35, respectively. The SD model is reliable with <4.5% relative
errors of simulation results compared with reference data (Table 1.2), and this model
can be used to simulate future macro-demand for LUCC types in the study area.
Based on local statistical social-economic information from 1996 to 2005, and
related macro-economic planning and policies at the provincial and national level,
five aspects were defined to reflect the key influence factors of macro-scale land-
use demands, including economic growth, population increase, urbanization, food
supply, and technology development (representing as the indicator of growth rate of
food production) (Table 1.3). Then, according to the combination of these variable
settings, three future socioeconomic scenarios have been defined and their demand
for specific land-use areas can be predicted during 2005–2035 using the SD model.
Scenario 1 shows the potential speed-up development of socioeconomic aspects.
Scenario 2 is the reference which basically keeps the present pace with social and
economic development. Scenario 3 is ecological which is favorable to ecological
improvement.
Table 1.3 Scenarios design based on the key indicators of social-economic condition in the study
area
Indicators 1996–2000 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Growth rate of GDP (%) 8.81 10 8.5 7
Growth rate of nature pop (‰) 6.23 8 6 4
Urbanization (%) 23.29 40 30 20
Food self-sufficiency rate (%) 95 110 100 90
Growth rate of food production (%) 1 1.3 1 0.7
1.3 Description of the IA Method 11
Given its ability to represent multi-scale land change, the CLUE-S model has been
applied in case studies with high-resolutions at local or regional scales (Huang and
Cai 2005; Verburg and Overmars 2009). The CLUE-S model considers the following
four parts which contain land-use demand, spatial policy and restrictions, location
characters and specific conversion settings of land-use types (Fig. 1.4).
(1) Land-use demand: land demand for different land-use types are calculated using
the SD model (see detail in Fig. 1.3).
(2) Spatial policy and restrictions: the model accounts for spatial policy and restric-
tions for the specific land-use type that affects the conversion and causes differ-
ences in spatial-temporal behavior. Spatial change from farmland area into other
LUCC types are usually restricted, particularly due to the protection policy of
basic farmlands in China. In the case study, the large farmland and construction
land are not allowed to be converted to other land-use types.
(3) Location characters: demand for land by different land-use types determines
the overall competitive capacity of the different LUCC types. The location
characters in this study include 12 driving factors (Table 1.4). Logistic regression
method is used to indicate the probability of a certain grid cell to be devoted to
a land-use type given a set of potential driving factors following:
Pi
ln = β0 + β1 X 1,i + β2 X 2,i · · · + βn X n,i (1.18)
1 − Pi
where Pi is the probability of a grid cell for the occurrence of the considered land-
use type i, and X i indicating the driving factors. The value of Relative Operating
Characteristics (ROC) is used to indicate the validation of the model (Hanley and
McNeil 1982; Pontius and Schneider 2001).
By using ArcGIS, the raster maps were generated into ASCII files for analyses
with SPSS software 14.0. The coefficient value of driving factors of different land-
use types in 2000 is presented in Table 1.4. The order of different ROC curve values
Table 1.4 The β value of the logit model for different land-use types in the study area (p < 0.01)
Driving Farmland Woodland Grassland Water Construction Unused land
force
Population 0.0165 −0.3155
density
Desert soil −0.6737 1.3471 −0.2052
Chestnut soil 0.9816 1.1937
Gray −1.0417 0.4998
calcium soil
Meadow soil
Altitude 0.0034 0.0042 −0.0036 −0.0027
Slope −0.0061 −0.0897 −0.0405 −0.3625
Aspect −0.3545 −0.0025 0.0020
Road −0.0013 −0.0002 −0.0002 0.0001
accessibility
Groundwater −0.0002 −3.2908 −0.0118 0.0092
depth
Piedmont 0.5312 −2.8734 3.7850 −1.1643
Mountain 3.3113 −3.8755 1.1811
Constant 7.2465 −10.8617 −9.6972 −0.7181 −0.4024 4.4578
are: farmland (0.880) > unused land (0.84) > construction land (0.830) > water area
(0.808) > grassland (0.774) > woodland (0.739). The best performance with selected
factors is farmland; the spatial distribution of all land types could well be explained
by the selected driving variables when all the ROC curve values are more than 0.7.
(4) Land-use type specific conversion setting: because of the different conversion
possibilities among land-use types, conversion coefficient is usually from 0 to
1. 1 means that the conversion barely occurs, such as urban land convert to
agricultural land; 0 means that the type can convert to any other land type, the
higher the defined elasticity, the more difficult it is to convert this land-use type.
SD model was used to simulate demand of land-use types under three scenarios (see
Table 1.3) with yearly time steps during 2000–2035, and the results were shown in
Table 1.5 and Fig. 1.5.
The results showed that there are no obvious differences in LUCC types of wood-
land, water area, and construction land under different scenarios, especially, there
1.4 Application of the Integrated Model 13
Table 1.5 Simulation of land-use types demand in typical years of 2015, 2025, and 2035 (units:
hm2 )
Scenarios Farmland Woodland Grassland Water Construction Unused
area land
2015 Scenario 1 89,492 296 61,256 4965 45,158 164,295
Scenario 2 96,466 289 59,412 4979 45,843 158,473
Scenario 3 101,115 284 58,177 4990 46,322 154,574
2025 Scenario 1 85,712 236 62,549 5434 60,840 150,691
Scenario 2 91,437 230 60,677 5447 61,714 145,957
Scenario 3 95,254 225 59,422 5456 62,314 142,789
2035 Scenario 1 82,599 222 61,401 5740 73,087 142,412
Scenario 2 87,311 217 59,663 5754 74,069 138,448
Scenario 3 90,453 213 58,499 5763 74,738 135,795
Fig. 1.5 Simulation of land-use types demand with SD model during 2000–2035 (units: hm2 )
is an obvious collinear character between woodland and water area. The possible
reason is the areas of two land-use types are very small which is difficult to reflect
the difference by interpretation data.
14 1 An Integrated Modeling Analysis …
The Kappa statistic was employed to evaluate the accuracy of CLUE-S model results,
which was first proposed in 1960, and it is usually used to evaluate the accuracy of
remote sensing image classification (Bai et al. 2005; Liu et al. 2009; Zeledon and
Kelly 2009). In this study, the Kappa values of LUCC maps are 0.86 and 0.81 in
2000 and 2005 separately. For different land-use types, the relative differences of
the simulation by CLUE-S model and the actual areas are 0.29–4.49% from 2000 to
2005.
Figure 1.6 shows the explicit simulation result of future LUCC pattern based on
three scenarios in 2015, 2025 and 2035. The central parts in the study area have obvi-
ous changes under different scenarios, which is the key area of the Zhangye oasis,
and is famous as the national production base of corn seed under complete irrigation
agriculture system. Such an area was affected by insensitive human activities under
different socioeconomic development scenarios. In addition, grassland in the north-
east region of the study area also has obvious change at the pixel scale, because of
the dominant human activity for grazing, which also affected by the local land-use
planning and ecosystem management. Changes in different LUCC types under three
scenarios showed that the scenario design can be used to reflect different developing
pathways in the study area.
2025
2025 2025
Fig. 1.6 Simulated LUCC dynamics in the study area based on three scenarios during 2015–2035
Fig. 1.7 Changes of IJI (left) and CONTAG (right) on landscape pattern in 2000–2035
16 1 An Integrated Modeling Analysis …
It is important to realize that no single model is able to reflect all key LUCC processes
at different spatial-temporal scales (Verburg et al. 2008), and also can not include
all relevant driving factors to make a full assessment of LUCC. Each LUCC model
has its own potential and constraints. Based on multi-scale characteristics, this study
accounted for an IA approach by combining of SD, CLUE-S, and landscape indices
methods, which could improve the level of LUCC analyses, and also better predict
future changes of LUCC based on different scenarios.
Integrating SD modeling technology and methodology of land surface process
research is an important issue worthy of future research. The human factors analysis
can be added into the evolution research of ecosystems for achieving the combination
of human factors and the natural elements by using SD modeling approach, which
can fully reflect the evolution of the system architecture, and integrated analysis for
different factors of ecological-economics system is very significance. The SD model
is used to calculate demand of areas change for different land-use types as a whole,
while the CLUE-S model was used to transfer the demand to spatially explicit LUCC
patterns at a reasonable scale with the spatial consideration of land-use suitability
in the study area, landscape indices approach evaluated the LUCC simulation result
that could help choose a special management scenario of LUCC.
By setting different development scenarios, changes can be found especially for
hot spot areas. The performance of integrated LUCC model does not work well for
urban areas, considering the study area is located in the northwest inland river basin of
China, and urban areas are small. In addition, the definition of conversion coefficient
in the CLUE-S model is based on the user’s knowledge of the study area, and settings
of the coefficient have an important influence on the results. The prepared resolution
of map data is 500 m, and running time is reasonable (about half an hour) in Windows
XP PC. Sensitivity issues based on scale changes could be devoted to research in
future research.
This paper developed an IA approach to understand the characterization and pre-
sentation of LUCC processes by combining CLUE-S, SD and landscape indices
methods, which gave insight into a better understanding of the possible impacts of
LUCC on terrestrial ecosystems and provided scientific support for land-use plan-
ning and scenario management. The simulation results also could be used as a source
data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based
on different underlying surface of LUCC.
The successful application of the IA approach proves that the integration of exist-
ing models and approaches based on the multi-scale characteristics of LUCC within
a single modeling framework could be a feasible solution because it is able to reflect
the complexity of the land-use system and capture key processes of land-use change
at different scales. Furthermore, the identification and spatialization of driving fac-
tors (especially human factors, such as social capital, cultural types) of LUCC is
an important issue, and integrate these factors into the IA framework, which can
enhance the simulation accuracy of LUCC based on IA approach.
References 17
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Chapter 2
Modeling Urban Growth with CA Model
at Regional Scale
In recent years, arid areas in northwest China has witnessed rapid urban growth
and excessive agricultural activities, mainly because of its economic development
and increasing population pressure. In this study, a typical arid area was selected as
the case study area, and aimed to understand the growth dynamics of the region, to
forecast its future expansion, and to provide a basis for regional management. We
calibrated and validated a SLEUTH model with historical data derived from different
sources, which comprised remotely sensed and strategic planning data records from
1995 to 2009. Further, three scenarios based on local regional ecological planning
were designed to simulate the spatial pattern of urban growth in different condi-
tions. The first scenario allowed urban expansion without any additional managed
growth limitations and the continuation of the actual historical trend. The second sce-
nario was limited based on environmental considerations and managed growth was
assumed with moderate protection. The third scenario simulated managed growth
with strict protection on wetland reserves and productive agricultural areas in the
study area. We consider that the results of these models of growth in the study
area obtained under different scenarios are of great potential use to city managers
and stakeholders. We also suggest that scale sensitivity and spatial accuracy are
among the factors that must be considered in practical applications. We urge future
researchers to build on the present study to produce models for similar regions in
northwest China.
Urban growth is among the most significant processes that shape the earth’s ecosys-
tems (Ahern 2013; Seto and Fragkias 2005), particularly in regions where rapid
economic and population development have reduced the amount and distribution of
natural resources that provide vital services to society (Tian et al. 2014). In addition,