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Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing

Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas
José Luis Verdegay

Integrating
Soft Computing
into Strategic
Prospective Methods
Towards an Adaptive Learning
Environment Supported
by Futures Studies
Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing

Volume 387

Series Editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences,
Warsaw, Poland
The series “Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing” contains publications on
various topics in the area of soft computing, which include fuzzy sets, rough sets,
neural networks, evolutionary computation, probabilistic and evidential reasoning,
multi-valued logic, and related fields. The publications within “Studies in Fuzziness
and Soft Computing” are primarily monographs and edited volumes. They cover
significant recent developments in the field, both of a foundational and applicable
character. An important feature of the series is its short publication time and
world-wide distribution. This permits a rapid and broad dissemination of research
results.
Indexed by ISI, DBLP and Ulrichs, SCOPUS, Zentralblatt Math, GeoRef, Current
Mathematical Publications, IngentaConnect, MetaPress and Springerlink. The books
of the series are submitted for indexing to Web of Science.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/2941

Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas José Luis Verdegay
•

Integrating Soft Computing

into Strategic Prospective
Methods
Towards an Adaptive Learning Environment
Supported by Futures Studies

123
Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas José Luis Verdegay
School of Management Department of Computer Science
Universidad Externado de Colombia and Artificial Intelligence
Bogotá, Colombia University of Granada
Granada, Spain

ISSN 1434-9922 ISSN 1860-0808 (electronic)

Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing
ISBN 978-3-030-25431-5 ISBN 978-3-030-25432-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25432-2
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
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to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To Alejandro and Connie
Preface

Soft Computing is one of the fundamental areas in Artificial Intelligence, while

prospective is a very important Future Studies approach. For several decades, many
Soft Computing and Futures Studies books have been written, some of which
contain hundreds of pages with pleasant discussions about uncertainty. This is the
main topic of discussion in this book. The field of Soft Computing in Humanities
and Social Sciences in recent years has changed. The proposal to include hybrid
models of Soft Computing in the field of Futures Studies gave us the motivation to
write this book, which is, however, not intended to replace others. Hence, this book
introduces a new route that brings together two disciplines thus helping build a
prospective reflection framework based on anticipation, learning, and adaptation.
There is increasing cooperation between sciences in a wide range of scientific
projects between the so-called hard sciences and the so-called soft sciences.
The special feature of this book is to present an original model that, by inte-
grating qualitative and quantitative approaches of Soft Computing in the field of
Futures Studies, should help reducing uncertainty in the process of strategic
decision-making. In other words, the approach used by the authors consists in
reusing and combining Soft Computing with the field of Futures Studies, leading to
promising results.
This book offers a guide to Soft Computing, with a special emphasis on the
connections to the field of Futures Studies, and proposes a novel approach for
strategic prospective, called Meta-Prospective. It builds and tests a framework that
is able to reduce uncertainty in the processes of long-term strategic reflection.
In this book, the field of Soft Computing and the field of Futures Studies have
reached a meeting point, by focusing on of the most relevant issues today, i.e., the
future. This has been the main result of a fruitful exchange carried out on this
subject in the last few years. Thus, the book focuses on pointing to a new path of
integration, to which we can continue to add new pieces. An approach that can be
understood as autonomous systems oriented to man, which could help to make
decisions in the processes of strategic reflection in the long term.

vii
viii Preface

It is time to address some special dates and events that happened during the time
we worked with the manuscripts. At the end of 2017, thanks to the academic
dialogue between José Luis Verdegay and Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas, it was agreed to
make a visit of Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas to work with the Models of Decision and
Optimization Research Group (MODO) led by José Luis Verdegay.
The MODO group is part of the Department of Computer Science and Artificial
Intelligence of the Higher Technical School of Computer and Telecommunication
Engineering at the University of Granada, Spain. Meanwhile, Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas
is a member of the Strategic Thinking and Prospective Center of the Universidad
Externado de Colombia.
The work, which made action research unique, was the collaboration of the Latin
American organizations in conducting and interpreting the models to evaluate the
new perspectives for the change in the corporate strategy methodologies.
It is appropriate to point out that the results achieved during the authors’ work in
Granada, and thanks to the valuable collaboration of David Pelta, during 2018, has
given motivation and content for this book. We hope that the reading will inspire
you to make your own contribution to the field of Futures Studies.
Authors want to present their gratitude to Springer and in particular to
Dr. Leontina Di Cecco for giving them the opportunity of publishing this book.
To finish they wish to express their special recognition to Prof. Janusz Kacprzyk,
who accepted the book into the series Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing.

Bogotá, Colombia Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas

Granada, Spain José Luis Verdegay
May 2019
Acknowledgements

Authors acknowledge support through project TIN2017‐86647‐P from the Spanish

Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (including European Regional Devel-
opment Funds).
Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas wishes to offer special recognition to Elsy Constanza
Medina Alvarez, Nelson Obregón Neira and Constantino Villegas for their ability
to improve the language, and especially to thank Carlos Restrepo Rivillas, Research
Director of the School of Management at Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Elsy, Nelson, Constantino and Carlos have been an enormous support to ensure that
the manuscript has been completed.

ix
Introduction

The contributions of this book are located in an intermediate point between Soft
Computing and the field of Futures Studies to respond to the need to reduce the
uncertainty that arises in visualizing the future. In this book, the reader will
encounter notions of Futures Studies and basic concepts of Soft Computing and
initial notions of fuzzy sets and dynamical systems. Several proposals have emerged
during the last 50 years. Some of the most relevant are those made in the 1980s
based on the model proposed by the Club of Rome and that have been consistently
oriented toward building model-based alternatives. Of course, there are multiple
works in the available literature. This book aims to contribute to the debate and
helps to determine the possible roles of modeling and simulation in the field of
Futures Studies and, particularly, in strategic prospective.
From that perspective, this book hopes to contribute to the application of Soft
Computing to the field of Futures Studies. Especially in relation to the implications
of the art of conjecture (De Jouvenel, 1967) and the heuristics that arise when using
Soft Computing models to reduce uncertainty in the long-term strategic reflection
process. Therefore, a way to develop these links in three key matters is proposed:
The first has to do with Soft Computing approaches that can be used to improve
understanding of opinions and value judgments, i. e., the ambiguity and vagueness
of experts’ decisions during the process of collective construction of the future
using strategic prospective. The second is oriented toward recommending the most
adequate Soft Computing method and logic to be used in the process of conjec-
turing during the elaboration of possible futures (futuribles). To allows for a better
understanding of the systemic structure of the strategic design, therefore reducing
uncertainty. The third is the incorporation of optimization methods for
decision-making based on Soft Computing in order to reduce uncertainty in the
process of formulating strategic actions that are more useful for attaining the sce-
nario that is chosen as the most convenient one. It is during the process that links
prospective with strategy.
De Jouvenel proposal on the art of conjecture is based on the need to determine
an “art of political conjecturing” that rejects the idea of forecasting methods that
imply a “prefabrication of the future.” Recognizing the application area of human

xi
xii Introduction

reflection to devise futuribles, or the array of possible futures that can occur
according to diverse ways of acting. Here, conjecture is a pivotal idea in the French
school of Futures Studies. It offers a non-positivistic way of reflection that widens
the processes of visualizing the future not toward a single direction, by using a form
of inductive reasoning that allows for the elaboration of general images of the future
from particular premises.
According to Durance (2010), the “Futuribles Committee” was founded in 1961
at the initiative of De Jouvenel, and, with aid from Ford Foundation, it gathered a
select group of specialists that by 1965 included among its members the names of
Eugene V. Rostow of Yale University, Edward Shils of Chicago University,
Waldemar A. Nielsen of the Africa-America Institute of New York, and Daniel Bell
as a consultant. This encounter between the father of Futures Studies in the USA
and the emerging French school of strategic prospective was not coincidental. In
1968, the first international conference on prospective and regional development
was organized, sponsored by DATAR1 with remarkable participation of American
experts. The developments in the field made by Olaf Helmer and Herman Kahn of
RAND Corporation regarding scenario building were acknowledged, and this
originated a process of mutual collaboration. With Olivier Guichard and Jérôme
Monod’s participation in the territorial planning delegation from DATAR was
created the same year, a foster dialogue with the emerging futures think tanks
focused on forecasting.
Those bonds, formed over five decades ago, became this book’s frame of ref-
erence. The benefits of Futures Studies are widely known, but the field’s limitations
are also evidenced both in the French strategic prospective approach and in the
model-based forecasting approach in centers for Futures Studies in the USA.
Concerning strategic prospective, the limitations outlined in this book have to do
with the following matters: First, the growing inability to visualize the most
convenient future, amid the increasing uncertainties of our time. They cast doubt on
the application of the strategic prospective model proposed by Laboratoire
d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation (LIPSOR) in its method-
ological framework oriented toward proactivity, strategy, and the future, deemed
capable of facing uncertainty in an efficient way. The occurrence of unstable
futuribles that arise due to the difficulty to recognize the array of possible options
limits the holistic understanding of decision-makers. When identifying future-
bearing facts to later be used as sources in the inference process to build futuribles
and make subsequent inferences, experts often underestimate the estimations of
behavior related to the system’s own dynamics. Even though the literature shows
several methods and techniques to explore, gather, systematize, and recognize
future-bearing facts, which are an important source to attain future inferences.

1
Since in 1963 the French Government had created the DATAR agency, whose mission was to
oversee regional development. The institution was responsible, between 1963 and 2014, to prepare
the guidelines and implement the policy of national planning and development of the French
territory. These missions are replaced in 2014 by the Commissioner General of the equality of the
territories.
Introduction xiii

There is a lack of orientation toward understanding the characteristics of the system

as a whole.
Second, there are many sources of uncertainty linked to the vague opinions
expressed by experts during discussion sessions that occur in the process of
reflection related to the collective construction of the future. The reason being that,
during this process, a wide variety of the tools are used gather evidence from
diverse sources, in different conditions and with different instruments; which they
are generally expressed as intuitions and expert knowledge.
Third, there is the recurrent simplification in the elaboration of interfaces
between prospective and strategy, with strong implications on the consistency and
coherency of the strategic formulation. The outcome is a loss of confidence in the
results attained through long-term strategic reflection since there is not a clear road
map to reach the chosen future scenario, whose implications are significant in
regard to the decision-making process. Strategic actions are the preferred means to
build the interfaces, demanding the use of methods to look for the consensus of
experts based on their subjective judgments.
Concerning forecast-based models, Miller (2007) argues that these are centered
on the reliance upon predictive approaches that are stimulated through trend
analysis, the development of forecasting models or the use of multifactor estima-
tions. These are some of the reasons that support this approach to the future: the
deep human desire to know what can occur. Thus, many organizations, sectors, or
territorial entities desire predictions as a means to understand the future. Also, arise
the need to develop a systemic understanding that offers a way to achieve stability
in terms of the behavior of complex systems, since it is relevant to understand the
system’s attributes, concepts, and evolution (von Reibnitz, 1988). Finally, there is a
need to manage risks in the decision-making process, and it fosters the development
of a plethora of heterogeneous proposals that offer homogeneity in long-term
planning processes, turning discontinuities in time into a challenge (Van Notten,
2005). Despite the apparent sophistication, the impossibility to assign significant
probabilities to the way a system could work years ahead is currently recognized
(Slaughter, 1995, 2004). Notwithstanding the formal agreement on the insufficiency
and failure of predictive efforts in the strategic field, little progress has been made in
the development of practical alternatives.
In the application of Futures Studies on multiple contexts (such as the business,
sectorial, technological, or territorial spheres), it is difficult for social actors to
recognize and deal with emerging dynamics that arise in their surroundings of
interest, and this translates into a gradual increase in uncertainty in the face of the
need to make decisions of the strategic type. These circumstances become more
apparent inasmuch as reflection reaches the level of decision-making in business, in
territories and in different sectors. Such is the case of instances such as boards of
directors or presidential committees, where dialogue oftentimes reflects reflections
with a high degree of uncertainty concerning the proposed results for Futures
Studies. These processes include, among other key matters, conceptualization
processes that drive the emphasis of strategic interests and collaboration processes
where network-based work dynamics easily emerge.
xiv Introduction

The literature on Futures Studies highlights the need to improve the inference
process to better face turbulences and acquire the necessary abilities to detect
potentially harmful events (Mendonça, Cunha, Kaivo-Oja, & Ruff, 2004). From
that perspective, the need to delve increase the knowledge regarding the elaboration
of futuribles is referenced (Vacum & Melo, 2010). Also, there is a trend in the
literature emphasizing the link between building the future and innovation, which
requires new approaches (Rohrbeck & Gemünden, 2011). Finally, there are
reflections on the methodological dispersion in the application of methods and
techniques to future-building processes (Son, 2015). These are some of the avail-
able references that offer contributions reflections related to the diverse application
areas of Futures Studies.
Given the variety and amount of methods and techniques that are available in the
aforementioned approaches, there are multiple paths that have been developed to
build scenarios for different application contexts. These are determined by the wide
spectrum of objectives that can be attained, and the choice of approaches to be used,
which have an impact on the way of dealing with long-term strategic reflection.
However, this wide array of options can be synthesized for now, as mentioned by
Kosow and Gaßner (2008), in two perspectives that are apparently in conflict. The
“exploratory” versus the “normative,” and the “qualitative” versus the “quantita-
tive,” or even from the perspective of possible future actions, there is a dilemma
between “reference scenarios” and “policy scenarios.” The matter that settles the
confrontation is nothing but the need to deal with uncertainty. Thus, the high
vagueness introduced by the approaches, the complex and critical interactions that
take place between social actors linked to the process of reflection, and the
acknowledgment of the difficulty of inference processes increases the multiple
sources of uncertainty.
Uncertainty can arise for multiple reasons. Some of them are the lack of expert
knowledge, as well as the ignorance (given the nature of the future) that sometimes
causes situations in which the real world must be ignored outside the laboratory
(Lamata, Pelta, & Verdegay, 2018).
The art of conjecture is a complex process, with a high variability owing to the
complex interactions that take place in the identification of futuribles, making
long-term reflection a process that faces several challenges. Some of those chal-
lenges can be defined briefly as:
(1) The difficulty decision-makers, experts, and other related social actors have in
recognizing the systemic structure of the strategic design. Then, the recognition
of futuribles turns out to be, in many cases, a leap in the dark that occurs because
of the apparent lack of knowledge about the system’s behavior dynamics as a
whole. Thus, this is a form of ignorance about the decision-making process,
since the conjecturing process to identify futuribles is a challenge that must be
faced, but it is insufficient in terms of the feasibility of said futuribles.
(2) The difficulties surrounding the identification of experts’ opinions. It is a
fundamental issue in the process of collective construction of the future, given
the vagueness with which decision-makers, experts, and other related social
Introduction xv

actors voice their opinions. Here, it becomes evident that decision-makers have
trouble expressing their value judgments using nominal or ordinal scales (de-
pending on the method that is used to gather their opinions). This creates
mistrust in agreement processes, which can affect decision-making in the
context of the phases of strategic prospective that guide the process of reflection
for the collective construction of the future.
(3) The difficulties that surround the process of strategic formulation, i. e., the link
between prospective and strategy that orients the way to connect the envisioned
future with the current situation of the system. Hence, its solution is highly
important, given its implications concerning the process of setting in motion
and deploying the strategic actions, that must take place to attain the futurible
that was chosen as the most convenient by decision-makers. In the face of this
challenge, the most relevant aspect has to do with the way of making decisions
are the methods that are used to prioritize the most convenient actions and, the
potential inability to recognize their relevance using validity criteria. All of this
can lead to the unwilling omission of relevant courses of action.
Given the nature of those difficulties, Smithson’s (1985) taxonomy provides a
variety of approaches to the problem of decision-making in human thought and
behavior in the face of uncertainty. Particularly concerning its fuzzy nature.
Therefore, it is possible to recognize naturally the need to propose ambiguous and
vague information concepts in relation to the construction process of the future and,
more specifically, in strategic prospective.
The use of fuzzy logic, fuzzy sets, fuzzy cognitive maps, and multi-criteria
decision-making (MCDM) methods, commonly linked to Soft Computing, provides
a way to reduce the uncertainty that pertains to processes of long-term strategic
reflection. The use of fuzzy logic favors the combination of qualitative and quan-
titative methods when facing complex processes in order to understand the inter-
actions between key factors that make part of the strategic design. The subjectivist
approach can include human imagination, local, and unique knowledge based on
the use of inductive logic. The objectivist approach tends to have a concrete
structure, emphasizing a positivistic idea of the future, where knowledge is accu-
mulated through the use of deductive logic.
The present book introduces the development and proof of a proposal that
comprises logic and a set of methods aimed at improving the inference process and
reducing uncertainty in the context of the process of visualizing the future.
Therefore, as a development on the approach of De Jouvenel (1967) in his book on
the art of conjecture. From the strategic point of view, the model proposed here
delves into the use of a systemic and complex perspective to understand the sys-
tem’s behavior dynamics. Since, even though complex and systemic thinking is
commonly recognized as an important ability in Futures Studies, its use and dis-
cussion in the literature are relatively low, and its discussion is somewhat recent.
The proposed model (called here Meta-Prospective) is oriented toward
strengthening the inference process in light of the validity criteria used in the
practice of strategic prospective. The validity criteria are namely pertinence,
xvi Introduction

coherence, likelihood, importance, and transparency (Godet, 1995a, 1995b).

Therefore, the development of the Meta-Prospective proposal arises from a com-
bination of systemic and complex thought with the use of Soft Computing in order
to help to reduce the ambiguity and vagueness that appear in the inference process.
They are adapted to the uncertainty of long-term futures, devising a less linear path
compared to the regular way of proposing futuribles. Thanks to the choice of a more
rugged method of understanding the complexities of studying the future.
The compilation of ideas and concepts rooted in systemic and complexity sci-
ences as well as in Futures Studies, and, particularly, in strategic prospective, gives
to this proposal an interdisciplinary spirit since it also uses different methodologies.
The integration of concepts and proposed ideas into a new model that links
strategic prospective to modeling and hybrid simulation based on Soft Computing
methods, results in a novel proposal that uses tools and contents already available in
the scientific literature, though with a new interpretation.
The effort and dedication to the new proposal include the use of logic and a set
of methods based on approaches that have been developed from new perspectives
which allow for an improvement of the process of inferring futuribles, and it can
make use of the traditional toolbox of strategic prospective and, more generally, of
tools that are available in the field of Futures Studies.
The Meta-Prospective approach, therefore, does not constitute a mere sum of
methods. Since it is aimed at following closely the arguments that Godet proposed
concerning the interaction between the normative and the explorative approaches to
scenarios, when he argued, “This does not mean that we are abandoning the nor-
mative for the explanatory; in our view, this distinction is only of operative interest.
In fact, once the evolution and the situation are described, in one direction or the
other, the corresponding course of events is both explanatory and normative.”
(Godet, 1995a, p. 44).
The logic and the concepts taken from the systemic and the complex, together
with the methods of Soft Computing, serve the purpose of reducing uncertainty, or
better. Rather dealing with uncertainties in a better way (Godet, 1995a, 1995b;
Bourse, 2016) in order to help decision-makers face “growing interdependence, the
quickening pace of change in certain areas (…) and the noticeable lack of action in
others” (Godet, 1995a, 1995b), so that their use in the practice of strategic
prospective is subordinated to the processes of decision-making by social actors.
Favoring three key purposes: (a) the use of more robust methods and logics to
determine the trend-oriented behavior of the system, recognizing a priori the range of
trend-oriented future situations as points of reference; (b) identifying a set of sce-
narios contrasted from the exploration of extreme situations, concerning the a priori
situation of the system’s future behavior, so that it is possible to recognize a tra-
jectory of the future that is “anticipatory, imaginative and normative” (Godet, 1995a,
1995b) to adapt to its environment as well as transform it; and (c) strengthening the
process of strategic reflection in light of prospective thinking, since, once the
futuribles have been identified, it is necessary to identify the possible actions.
Therefore, from the point of view of the collective construction of the future, the
use of optimization models for decision-making in Soft Computing is a means to
Introduction xvii

improve the logic of inference and reduce uncertainty. This is a better way to make
decisions to reduce the reverse order effect, by prioritizing the most convenient
strategic actions faced by decision makers, experts and other social actors who are
responsible for materializing the envisioned futurible.
The literature on Futures Studies mentions a wide range of methods and tech-
niques to explore, gather, and recognize facts, together with various methods for
developing the inference process. In the process of visualizing the future by using
strategic prospective have had a notoriously limited development in the literature,
the topics concerning the approach based on the understanding of the systemic
structure of strategic design, the fuzzy nature of the value judgments made by
decision-makers, experts and other related social actors, and the link between
prospective and strategy based on a limited available information. In other words,
there is a lack of literature focused on the use of Soft Computing methods in
strategic prospective; even though there is a wide array of Soft Computing appli-
cations in other areas, there is not enough application to approaches related to
Futures Studies.
The implications expected from the Meta-Prospective model are oriented toward
contributing to the field of Futures Studies in three key areas:
First, the complex understanding of the real world is a must for the success of
Futures Studies, from the perspective of complex thinking (Morin, 1995) linked to
complexity sciences (Prigogine & Stengers, 1979, 1980, 1984; Nicolis & Prigogine,
1989) and the application of causal logic (Forrest, 2009) to Futures Studies. The
proposal of Forrest (2009, p. 2) emphasizes “examining and understanding complex
issues,” and argues that Futures Studies “needed more robust logic that would
suggest implications and inferences adequate for cross-comparisons.” They help
transcend the idea that “the structure of a system leads to its behavior” (Sterman,
2000, p. 28) in order to recognize “laws of the system” as pointed out by Checkland
(1999).
Second, the details of interest regarding the future cannot be predicted with a
reliable degree of accuracy (Ostrowski, 1959), so this limits the usefulness of
quantitative models in obtaining long-term predictions (Miles, 1975; Ajzen, 1977).
Therefore, a combination of quantitative and qualitative models can be used to
refine the understanding of issues that can provide a basis for inferring a system’s
behavior patterns.
Third, the more precise it is, the better it can get ready for (and shape) the future
(Neumann, 1974). Hence, the modeling process must be as flexible as possible,
thanks to the use of simple modeling and simulation methods that are still potent
enough to take advantage of the knowledge related to the system’s structural design
(Koulouriotis, Diakoulakis, & Emiris, 2001; Narayanan, 2005).
The Meta-Prospective model aims to materialize the goal of building better
images of the future (Godet, 1995a, 1995b) by proposing the following guidelines:
(a) Contribute to deal with the vagueness that occurs in the decision-making pro-
cess, given the fuzzy nature of the value judgments made by decision-makers,
experts, and other related social actors during the conjecture process to visualize the
future; (b) go deeper, both in the quantitative and the qualitative, to build a systemic
xviii Introduction

structure of strategic design that gathers the evidence of past trends and
future-bearing facts; and (c) improve the ability to link the most convenient
futurible (the product of the prospective process) to the strategy, by using methods
that amplify and increase the flexibility of the prioritization criteria of the most
convenient strategic actions to build, from the present, the desired futurible.
The book is divided into three parts. The first part comprises three chapters. In
Chap. 1, the contextual frameworks are addressed via a brief historical review in
order to provide a state of the art of Futures Studies and, more specifically, of
strategic prospective. Therefore, Chap. 1 provides the reader with an overview
focused on the paradigms and schools that have dominated long-term strategic
reflection. In Chap. 2, the conceptual frameworks are addressed, emphasizing the
art of conjecturing, which is the nucleus of long-term strategic reflection. In Chap. 3,
an outlook of the conceptual frameworks of Soft Computing is given, developing
the ideas of uncertainty and the links between Futures Studies and Soft Computing.
Thus, it will be possible to recognize and characterize the contributions from
diverse Soft Computing methods in order to deal with the vagueness and ambiguity
that arise during the inference process of prospective reflection, contributing to
reduce uncertainty.
The second part comprises three chapters. In Chap. 4, in the context of strategic
prospective, several concepts are introduced to shape a proposal of a widened
design called Meta-Prospective, which allows for the modeling and simulation
of the future. In Chap. 5, the proposal of the Meta-Prospective model is developed.
Including the process called Futures Lighthouse Trend Scenarios (FLighTS) and
process of categorization of strategic actions and the development of a creative and
adaptive learning environment. It is thanks to the newly proposed approach that
combines strategic prospective and multiple Soft Computing methods. In Chap. 6,
two experimental applications are developed, namely: A Cooperative Bank
Association and A Traditional Security Company, providing a means to compare
traditional strategic planning practices with strategic prospective and the
Meta-Prospective proposal.
The third part comprises two chapters. In Chap. 7, a fuzzy proposal from the
strategic prospective toolbox is introduced. It offers a context to integrate the
methods used in the experimental applications, both in the traditional and in the
newly proposed approaches. Finally, in Chap. 8, a guide for using the proposed
tools (which can be found in a Cloud Environment) is presented using RStudio and
R programming.
The book is aimed at two types of audiences interested in linking Future Studies
with Artificial Intelligence (AI). A first type of readers from the social sciences to
explore new proposals for the implementation of the strategic prospective based on
methods of Soft Computing. These can read the book in its natural order. A second
type of interested in exploring the application of Soft Computing methods, which in
this case are oriented toward the social sciences and in particular with the processes
of strategic reflection of long term. These can read the book from the end to the
beginning.
Introduction xix

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Contents

Part I Approaches to Futures Studies

1 Brief History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 From the Distant Past . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 From the Recent Past . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 The Second Half of the Twentieth Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.3.1 The USA and Its School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.3.2 France and Its School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.4 The 1980s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.5 The 1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.6 From the Recent Present . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.7 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2 Strategic Prospective: Definitions and Key Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.1 The Process of Reflection on the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.2 The Art of Conjecturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3 Fuzzy Optimization and Reasoning Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.1 Concepts of Fuzziness in Futures Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.1.1 Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.1.2 Decision-Making and Fuzzy Optimization Models . . . . . . 49
3.1.3 Fuzziness in Futures Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

xxi
xxii Contents

Part II Meta-Prospective: An Enhanced Approach for Strategic

Prospective
4 Constructing Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4.1 Building on the Built . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.2 Reducing the Uncertainty with Fuzzy Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5 Modeling and Simulation of the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.1 The Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
5.2 The Extended Prospective Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.2.1 Futures Lighthouse Trend Scenarios (FLighTS) . . . . . . . . 125
5.2.2 Prioritization and Categorization of Strategic
Actions Using Fuzzy MCDM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
5.2.3 Creating an Adaptive Learning Environment . . . . . . . . . . 139
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
6 Experimental Applications: An Overview of New Ways . . . . . . . . . . 149
6.1 Case One: A Cooperative Banking Association (CBA) . . . . . . . . 152
6.2 Case Two: A Traditional Security Company (TSC) . . . . . . . . . . 167
6.3 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Part III Towards a Cloud-Based Adaptive Learning Environment

7 Meta-Prospective Toolbox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
7.1 Linguistic Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
7.2 Recognizing Endo- and Exo-Signals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
7.3 Consolidation of the FCM Cognitive Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
7.4 Consolidation of the TIA Event Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
7.5 FLighTS Computing Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
7.6 Elaborating a Range of Futuribles and Choosing
the Most Convenient Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
7.7 Routing Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
7.8 Prioritizing of Strategic Actions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
7.9 Strategic Fitting Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
7.10 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
8 A Cloud Environment: A First Demo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
8.1 Build a FLighTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
8.2 Trend-Oriented Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
8.3 Scenario Building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
8.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

Appendix A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
Appendix B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
 Part I
Approaches to Futures Studies

Literature on Futures Studies mentions a wide array of methods and techniques to

explore, gather, and recognize facts to develop the process of the inference of
futures.
During the past 100 years, many schools and hybrid approaches to Futures
Studies have arisen around the world. Sometimes fueled by defense initiatives or
ambitions concerning geostrategic interests. Then, whether out of the corporate
interest in preventing unforeseen turbulence in markets, or out of a nation’s need to
rethink itself including discussion about the role of communities in the emerging
processes of long-term strategic reflection.
The main schools can be found in Europe and America, and they have integrated
various aspects into their approaches.
Some of them are known for centering the discussions on the future to guide
decision-making in the present, stating that the future must not be suffered, and it
must be built instead. This is a sign that shows the degree of human sovereignty in
the process of creating its own path, where tendencies are only some of the many
signals that offer a chance to create conjectures on the future, however, without
surprises. Anyhow social action is the determinant factor of human becoming.
Other approaches operate through the increasingly faster (and more diverse in
terms of sources) systematic gathering of data, using an increasing number of ever
“smarter” algorithms, as a means to try to answer the question of what could happen
tomorrow in an itinerant way to study the future through prevision and forecast.
This approach has progressively needed better computational capacities, exceeding
by far those of the IBM 360 of 1966. The triad composed of data + mathematical
artifacts + computational capabilities has been reconfirmed, and again.
Other approaches, however, have assumed positions in-between, while others
have shown signs of radicalness. Even though the future is of interest as a subject of
study, some approaches see consensus as the central point in decision-making
concerning the actions to be taken in the present to face the future. Other
approaches emphasize the role of mankind, centering their reflections concerning
the future of human doing and becoming.
2 Part I: Approaches to Futures Studies

In the process, all the schools and hybrid approaches that emerged have found
converging paths. This convergence process, which has had ups and downs since
the 1950s, has recently shown increasing vitality and has become the subject of
greater interest. Particularly due to the dramatic expansion of new technology and
approaches from the modeling of social systems, digital social networks, and the
growing recognition of artificial intelligence; among other novelties, where Futures
Studies have an important chapter to write.
In the process of future visualization, notions as understanding the systemic
structure of the strategic design, the fuzzy nature of value judgments made by
decision-makers, experts and other concerned social actors, and the link between
Futures Studies and strategy. All have had a notoriously limited development in
academic literature. All the while, there is a limited literature that discusses the use
of Soft Computing methods in strategic prospective.
To contextualize the evolution of thought in the West around the Future Studies,
the following is a brief historical overview.
Chapter 1
Brief History

The first evidence in the West linked to the field of Futures Studies, particularly to the
notion of scenario, dates to Heraclitus (circa 540 BC), disciple of Xenophanes, and
author of the treatise On Nature, divided into three sections: the universe, politics,
and theology. His work became so celebrated that a sect of his followers called the
“Heracliteans” was formed (Mondolfo, 1981). Heraclitus talks about movement and
immobility (Van Hecke, 2003). Kitzler (2014) mentions Heraclitus in relation to the
idea of transience, the flow of life when he said that “We climb into the same river
and yet not in the same; we are and we are not” (p. 215): Kitzler (2014) points out:
With regard to the wisdom of life, we can deduct from Heraclitus’s statement
that everything that surrounds and surrounds us, and ourselves, is subject to constant
change. This insight has far-reaching consequences for the way we think, value and
live (p. 215).

1.1 From the Distant Past

Fire is the universal, unifying element, while all things are changes in the fire, born
out of rarefaction and condensation. This process of change occurs because of a clash
of forces, of opposites, and transformation takes place in accordance with a path that
goes multiple ways, either up or down. This explains the becoming of cosmos. There-
fore, the complexity of nature is bound to the nature of its complexity itself (Pérez,
2007), and movement seen as synchrony and diachrony (Bourdieu, Chamboredon,
& Passeron, 2010) find a common origin in the work of Heraclitus related to Futures
Studies and the sciences of complexity. Both are focused on explaining society and
human action throughout time (Lebowitz, 1993; Lewis, 1979).
The concept of scenario is old since from early times, people have been interested
in the future and have used scenarios as a tool to indirectly explore the future of society
and its institutions. In this context, scenarios are usually examined in treatises that

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 3

R. Trujillo-Cabezas and J. L. Verdegay, Integrating Soft Computing into Strategic
Prospective Methods, Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing 387,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25432-2_1
4 1 Brief History

oscillate between utopia and dystopia, and, following this orientation; they have a
long history that can be traced back to the writings of early philosophers, such as
Plato’s description of his ideal Republic (Fowles, 1978; Sánchez-Elvira, Torres, &
Romero, 2009; Spencer, 2016; Von Reibnitz & Hammond, 1988).
Besides Plato, two ancient philosophers made significant contributions. Par-
menides argued that there is only one thing because generation, destruction, and
change are unreal; his approach is analytic and rests on the variation of the structure
of a system to represent reality. On the other hand, Heraclitus interprets and under-
stands the world according to a different system, wherein causality is a connection
of elements and is a law that constitutes a scientific principle. So far as it is known,
for Plato the formulation and creation of new concepts depend on the power of ideas
and paradigms to understand and act differently. In sum, images of the future and
their trajectories, i.e., scenarios, are a means to build visions of the future, and they
are combinations or sequences of assumptions with their own narratives, paths, and
perspectives (Masini, 2013a, 2013b). The dynamic evolution in time links social
action with the internal dynamics of the system that is the subject of Futures Studies.
The system has a central pivot, the evolution of human existence (Lane, 1999).
Some contributions from a wide range of authors have populated the field of
Futures Studies. Here some of them.
In Le métier de sociologue, Bourdieu et al. (2010) provide a contemporary
approach to becoming in human existence by virtue of movement, as well as the idea
that human existence can be understood through enlightened rationalism centered on
a nonlinear approach that is rather chain-like (observation, hypothesis, experimenta-
tion, theory, observation). Yet, in practice it forms a unity and a dialectic that yields
results in the understanding of historic evolution over the social construction of the
future as one of the West’s own approaches owed to the legacy of Heraclitus.
However, as a tool for strategic planning, scenario-based methods have had a
strong link to the military and have been employed by military strategists throughout
history, generally as war games (Adegoke & Traoré, 2014). In spite of its long historic
tradition as a recurring practice in the army, the earliest documented frameworks of
that which today would be called “scenarios” emerged only in the nineteenth century
in the writings of Von Clausewitz and Von Moltke (Von Clausewitz & Graham, 1873),
two prussian military strategists who credited themselves with the formulation of the
first strategic planning principles (Kahn, 1964). This approach to the construction
of the future is linked to pioneering notions of probability found in the work of
Jacques Bernoulli’s Ars Conjectandi, published in 1713, eight years after his death.
Since then, many contemporary methods and techniques use probability as part of
the inference process in the envisioning of futures.
The ideas put forward by Von Clausewitz and Von Moltke are enriched by an
emerging trend of intellectual production that took place mainly during the second
half of the nineteenth century. Following are some of the pioneers in the field and
their most remarkable contributions.
Two of the early contributors are William Hazlitt (Hazlitt, 1805) and John Dewey
(Dewey, 1896). Hazlitt is concerned with human action and its principles, which he
conceives of as a moral way to act prompted by future objects, whereby humans
1.1 From the Distant Past 5

can be selfish and destructive, or quite the opposite, according to the way they are
affected by that which relates to their (or others’) future interests. Hazlitt states that
“The objects in which the mind is interested may be either past or present, or future”
(Hazlitt, 1805, p. 1), whose origin can well be the product of rational action or the
willing search for human action. These objects cannot be modified, no matter the
intentions of human will in the past or in the present; they can only be transformed
by the actions of the human mind in the future (Hazlitt, 1805).
John Dewey (Dewey, 1896) founded the experimental laboratory school at the
University of Chicago, the so-called Dewey School, and from the educational princi-
ples laid there. He discussed the concept of the reflex arc, which is used to explain the
relation that exists between the stimulus or unconscious sensation and the conscious
response or movement, which have a special genesis or motivation, and are expressed
as a particular function. Hazlitt and Dewey’s contributions point at relevant aspects of
the agents’ actions and the importance of scenarios in the construction of the future.
It is important to note the work of John Stuart Mill (Mill, 1884), who was one
of the most relevant philosophers of his time and a prominent figure in the history
of liberal thought. Mill highlighted the liberty to act of individuals in opposition
to the trends that justified the State’s unlimited power to exercise social control on
them. Mill’s contribution is substantially valuable to social theory. Regarding the
principles of political economy, he proposed the idea that human knowledge has its
roots and limits in experience, and therefore, scientific knowledge is merely probable.
He therefore contributed to the development of the scientific method during the
nineteenth century. Mill’s thought is an invaluable contribution to the development
of social theories that helped both study and interpret social phenomena, becoming
a set of tools to be regularly used by social scientists who oscillated between diverse
methodological approaches, especially for and against positivism (Wicks & Freeman,
1998).
Developments during the nineteenth century showed the way for a number of
contributions in the scientific literature, marked by their diversity during the first
half of the twentieth century. It was a time when human history was shaken by the
consolidation of nation states, the end of the great European colonial empires, the
collapse of the Ottoman Empire, besides the thousands of inventions that occurred
in the USA which would forever change the development of human societies, thanks
in part to the work of Thomas Alva Edison and Nikola Tesla.
Table A.1 in Appendix A shows a non-exhaustive chronological summary of the
authors and contributions to the field of Futures Studies during this period.

1.2 From the Recent Past

During the end of the nineteenth century and the first quarter of the twentieth century,
multiple authors with different theoretical and empirical proposals contributed to the
development of the field of Futures Studies and many current disciplines. A brief
reference on these contributions is developed below.
6 1 Brief History

Several researchers on social and natural sciences shaped the modern idea of
the future, enriched with the emergence of intellectual works that were published
during the first half of the twentieth century. During this period, there were significant
contributions in the scientific literature that shaped subsequent ideas in the field of
Futures Studies.
In the first half of the twentieth century, contributions on democracy, human rela-
tions, and management appeared in the writings of social worker Mary Parker Follet.
Follet’s work (1918, 1925, 1940, 1949) introduces premonitory elements in current
models of management theory, such as principles of organizational functioning based
on the power of “with” or beyond the power of “over.” Ever since, obtaining a holistic
reading of the notion of organizational communities, given the intuited relationship
between the individual and others is an obvious notion in organizational theory. Fol-
let’s approach influences the emergence of current notions of collective construction
(Follet, 1896, 1918, 1925, 1940, 1949) that have oriented the notion of collective
construction of the future.
In French philosophy, Gaston Bachelard (Bachelard, 1928, 1934, 1936, 1938,
1940, 1949) developed the idea of “poetic clairvoyance” in his approach to phe-
nomenology. He displayed an interest in studying the structures of consciousness
as experienced from the perspective of the self. Of course, phenomenology as a
discipline is related to other key disciplines in philosophy, such as ontology, episte-
mology, logic, and ethics. Phenomenology appeared in the early twentieth century,
with the publication of important works by Husserl (1931, 1936), Heidegger (1927),
Koyré (1928, 1940), Minkowski (1911, 1928), Merleau-Ponty and Bannan (1956),
and Marcel (1926, 1935). Those works belong to the same era as those of Bachelard
and others such as Sartre and Wahl.
Bachelard’s work on phenomenology (Bachelard, 1949) offers a perspective that
is in contrast with the philosophy of Immanuel Kant (Kant, 1871), Plato (Calderón,
2004), and Husserl (Husserl, 1931). In Kant’s thought, phenomenology is a term
that refers to a non-phenomenal object, i.e., and one that does not belong to sensible
intuition but to a suprasensible or intellectual intuition. While, in Plato’s thought the
term can be equated to the intelligible or the ideal, which is all that cannot be per-
ceived in the empirical world and can only be accessed through reason. In Husserl’s
classic phenomenology, it is stated that our experience is directed to things, through
particular concepts, thoughts, ideas, images, or other modes of consciousness, since
those constitute the meaning or content of a given experience and are different from
the things that are present or signify. However, Bachelard believes that the noumenal
(from the Greek nooúmenon, which roughly means “something that is thought”) is
necessary to access possible sources of reality. On this point, Vydra (2014) comments
Bachelard’s work.
For example, in the modern sciences (such as chemistry or physics) immedi-
ate, naïve, sensible experiences (sensible observations, sensible knowledge) are not
essential for scientific work. Similarly, in the imagination, sensible perception is
not necessary for the emergence of the phenomenon of the image. Bachelard often
emphasizes that imagination and reverie are not like perception (perhaps in disagree-
1.2 From the Recent Past 7

ment with the phenomenology of Maurice Merleau-Ponty). “The eye which dreams
does not see, or at least it sees with another vision. And this vision does not consist
of ‘leftovers’. Cosmic reverie makes us live in a state which must be designated as
ante-perceptive.” (p. 54)
Therefore, Bachelard offers a phenomenological approach that takes reflection on
futures research through the path of ante-perception, i.e., a space between what is
understood as “objective” and “subjective.” This path avoids the trap of proof evalu-
ation in the classical thought of research methodology, leaving behind foundational
concepts of scientific research. It involves elements of the “cold reasoning” that is
habitually represented in reports with numerical data that are added to the accumu-
lated perceptions of personal experience regarding the walked paths and the desire
to determine which way to go. This is probably the closest approach to a quantum
look at reality, expressed as an extension of consciousness that breaks the apparent
immutability of the arrow of time. In the strategic prospective, the ante-perception
is a core notion in order to guides the processes of conjecture about the future.
Bachelard’s epistemological approach places the notion of scenario (unexplored
regions of human consciousness, hidden behind the preeminence of rational thought)
in specific areas between subjectivity and objectivity (Vydra, 2014). In other words,
is an approach that differs from Husserl’s phenomenology where consciousness is
directed through intentionality. Also, Bachelard develops a phenomenology of the
happy consciousness, of consciousness at home. There are many different homes for
human beings, and phenomenology can investigate the relations between conscious-
ness and these diverse places where human beings and things reside. Bachelard does
not attack the method of observation itself, but he does affirm that modern scientific
observation does not require immediate experience for the decision maker, that is,
for someone who plays the role of strategist. Therefore, overcoming the need to have
immediate experience to face the problem of recognizing the inference process that
occurs when viewing futures requires a scientific research methodology that gives
pertinence and coherence to the process of collective construction of the future.
Even though he is better known for his contributions to criminal anthropology,
Gabriel Tarde (Tarde, 1901, 1903) made important developments in sociology, which
he conceived of as a science based on small psychological interactions between
individuals. He developed the concept of “group mind,” anticipating various con-
temporary developments recovered by the Chicago school. In the field of Futures
Studies, ideas such as the symbolic interaction that explains the process by which
humans as a group mind interact with symbols to construct meanings (Blumer, 1954),
help explain the causal pertinence of the collective construction of the future in the
inference process that takes place in strategic prospective.
Henry Laurence Gantt (Gantt, 1903) is known for his contributions to manage-
ment, such as the Gantt chart, an instrument that is widely applied in multiple fields
and current areas of practice. It is also widely used in the reflections that arise in
processes of inference to envision futures in the field of Futures Studies.
Alfred James Lotka (Lotka, 1925) and Vito Volterra (Volterra, 1925) are known for
their independent work on population dynamics and energy, especially their preda-
tor–prey model. They paved the way for developments in the fields of modeling
8 1 Brief History

and mathematical simulations to make predictions in multiple subjects and applica-

tion areas that would soon be employed in social sciences, particularly as an aid in
inference processes in the field of Futures Studies.
Chester I. Barnard (Barnard, 1938) contributed to the area of strategy studies
with his “theory of cooperation and organization” and his work that deals with the
“functions and the methods of operation of executives in formal organizations.” In his
work, Barnard makes a significant distinction between “logical” and “non-logical”
mental processes, the latter being related to the notion of intuition, which constitutes
an important competency in processes of strategic reflection. Barnard’s approach
re-examines Bachelard’s phenomenological contributions, recognizing the need for
strategic thinking processes to follow a method that does not exclude the objective
gaze of the subjective gaze.
Frank Knight (Knight, 1921) made important contributions related to the idea of
uncertainty with what is known as the “Knightian uncertainty,” which refers to an
unmeasurable risk that is therefore non-computable. Knight was the first to highlight
the difference between the ideas of risk and uncertainty. From the perspective of
Futures Studies, the inference process that takes place in strategic prospective makes
a clear distinction between these two ideas, emphasizing the use of probability theory
to deal with uncertainty.
Kurt Lewin (Lewin, 1935), known as the father of modern social psychology,
has had an impact on the field of group dynamics (among others). His contributions
are highly relevant in the area of organizational psychology. From the perspective
of Futures Studies, and particularly in what is related to strategic prospective, the
actors’ game proposed by Godet (1995a, 1995b) shows the importance of using group
dynamics in the inference process.
Kenneth James William Craik (Craik, 1943) is especially important in the field of
Futures Studies due to his idea of mental models, which he explained as the way the
mind shapes models of reality that are then used to estimate or predict future events.
They are a contribution to the idea of ante-perception proposed by Bachelard (1936).
C. A. Gibb’s contributions (Gibb, 1947) are centered on the idea of shared leader-
ship, an idea that emphasizes the qualification of leadership when it is exercised in a
shared way, in groups, which is in line with Follet’s (1925) thoughts on the need for
the designated leader to be accompanied by those who have something to say. Thus,
from the emphasis on the collective construction of the future (Hazlitt, 1805) and the
idea of social action (Parsons & Shils, 1951), shared leadership is an essential part
of the inference process that occurs in envisioning futures. Both notions, collective
construction of the future and social action are key issues into the field of Futures
Studies.
Finally, it is important to take note of the works of Herbert Alexander Simon, 1978
recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics for his research on interdisciplinarity, who
made significant contributions to the area of the decision-making process (Simon,
1947) during the first half of the twentieth century. His idea of bounded rationality is
highly important in the inference process that occurs in strategic prospective. Simon
argues that people (in this case, decision-makers, experts, and other social actors
that partake in the process of envisioning futures) only partially employ rationality
1.2 From the Recent Past 9

since they include emotional impulses in many of their decisions. Simon sets up
three key dimensions in his approach (Simon, 1997): the available information, the
individual’s cognitive limitations, and the available time to make decisions. These
three dimensions have a deep impact on strategic prospective and can be recognized
as possible sources of uncertainty in the process of inference.
A non-exhaustive synthesis of contributions to mentioned here meet the collective
construction, the art of conjecture, the ante-perception on the future from the present,
the processes of collective construction through the elaboration of future images,
and the roles of social actors involved in the inference process to view the future.
Of course, the notions of modeling tools to improve the systemic understanding of
the object of study of the future. Table A.2 in Appendix A shows a non-exhaustive
chronological summary of authors and their contributions to the field of Futures
Studies during this period.

1.3 The Second Half of the Twentieth Century

Scenario-based methods have had a significant impact on the recognition of the field
of Futures Studies during the second half of the twentieth century. Among the first
mentions, we can highlight the historical reference made by Forrest (2009) when he
said that:
Wagar credited H. G. Wells1 for introducing modem Futures Studies in a lec-
ture to the Royal Institution of Great Britain on January 24, 1902 in which Wells
suggested the emergence of a new science involving “a systemic exploration of the
future.” (p. 32)
Meanwhile, sociologist William Fielding Ogburn (Ogburn & Thomas, 1922) goes
beyond the accomplishments attained through Wells’ approach (Wells, 1902) dur-
ing the 1920s. Wells uses quantitative methods such as causal logic to characterize
historical tendencies and propose tools to project those tendencies to the future in
order to make predictions. In the postwar era, in the 1960s, two centers for the devel-
opment of scenario-based methods enter the scene: the USA and France. Following
is a discussion concerning two schools of thought to characterize the developments
that took place during this period.

1.3.1 The USA and Its School

According to Bradfield, Wright, Burt, Cairns, and Van Der Heijden (2005), the Amer-
ican school was born in the mid-1950s at the heart of the American strategic thinking,
led by the Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation in association with the US

1 Wells is known for his role as a visionary social critic and author of popular science fiction novels,

a literary genre he pioneered.

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 This sub-order has been established for the reception of the
curious genus Opilioacarus.
Fam. Opilioacaridae.—Mites with segmented abdomen, leg-like
palps, chelate chelicerae, and two pairs of eyes. There are four dorsal
abdominal stigmata. Four species of the sole genus Opilioacarus
have been recorded, O. segmentatus from Algeria, O. italicus from
Italy, O. arabicus from Arabia, and O. platensis[373] from South
America.
 APPENDICES TO ARACHNIDA
I. and II.

TARDIGRADA AND PENTASTOMIDA

BY

ARTHUR E. SHIPLEY, M.A., F.R.S.

Fellow and Tutor of Christ’s College, Cambridge, and Reader in

Zoology in the University
 CHAPTER XIX
TARDIGRADA

OCCURRENCE—ECDYSIS—STRUCTURE—DEVELOPMENT
—AFFINITIES—BIOLOGY—DESICCATION—PARASITES—
SYSTEMATIC

The animals dealt with in this chapter lead obscure lives, remote
from the world, and few but the specialist have any first-hand
acquaintance with them. Structurally they are thought to show
affinities with the Arachnida, but their connexion with this Phylum is
at best a remote one.
Tardigrades are amongst the most minute multicellular animals
which exist, and their small size—averaging from ⅓ to 1 mm. in
length—and retiring habits render them very inconspicuous, so that
as a rule they are overlooked; yet Max Schultze[374] asserts that
without any doubt they are the most widely distributed of all
segmented animals. They are found amongst moss, etc., growing in
gutters, on roofs, trees or in ditches, and in such numbers that
Schultze states that almost any piece of moss the size of a pea will, if
closely examined, yield some members of this group, but they are
very difficult to see. The genus Macrobiotus especially affects the
roots of moss growing on stones and old walls. M. macronyx lives
entirely in fresh water, and Lydella dujardini and Echiniscoides
sigismundi are marine; all other species are practically terrestrial,
though inhabiting very damp places.
In searching amongst the heather of the Scotch moors for the ova
and embryos of the Nematodes which infest the alimentary canal of
the grouse, I have recently adopted a method not, as far as I am
aware, in use before, and one which in every case has yielded a good
supply of Tardigrades otherwise so difficult to find. The method is to
soak the heather in water for some hours and then thoroughly shake
it, or to shake it gently in a rocking machine for some hours. The
sediment is allowed to settle, and is then removed with a pipette and
placed in a centrifugaliser. A few turns of the handle are sufficient to
concentrate at the bottom of the test-tubes a perfectly amazing
amount of cryptozoic animal life, and amongst other forms I have
never failed to find Tardigrades.
Many Tardigrades are very
transparent; their cells are large,
and arranged in a beautifully
symmetrical manner; and since
those of them that live in moss,
and at times undergo desiccation,
are readily thrown into a perfectly
motionless state, during which
they may be examined at leisure,
it is not surprising that these little
creatures have been a favourite
object for histological research.
One way to produce the above-
mentioned stillness is partly to
asphyxiate the animals by placing
them in water which has been
boiled, and covering the surface
of the water with a film of oil.
The whole body is enclosed in a
thin transparent cuticle, which
must be pierced by a needle if it
be desired to stain the tissues of
the interior. As a rule the cuticle
is of the same thickness all over
the body, but in the genus
Fig. 249.—Dorsal view of Echiniscus
Echiniscus the cuticle of the
testudo, C. Sch., × 200, showing the
four segments 1, 2, 3, 4. (From Doyère.) dorsal surface is arranged in
thickened plates, and these plates
are finely granulated. From time
to time the cuticle is cast, and this is a lengthy process, so that it is
not unusual to find a Tardigrade ensheathed in two cuticles, the
outer of which is being rubbed off. The Macrobioti lay their eggs in
their cast cuticle (Fig. 250). The end of each of the eight legs bears
forked claws of cuticular origin. The legs are not jointed except in the
genus Lydella, where two divisions are apparent.
 Within the cuticle is the
epidermis, a single layer of cells
arranged in regular longitudinal
and transverse rows along the
upper and under surface, where
the cells are as uniformly
arranged and as rectangular as
bricks. The cells on the sides of
the body are polygonal, and not in
such definite rows. The nuclei
show the same diagrammatic
symmetry as the cells which
contain them, and lie in the same
relative position in neighbouring
cells. In a few places, such as the
end of each limb and around the
mouth and arms, the cells of the
epidermis are heaped up and
form a clump or ridge. In some
genera a deposit of pigment in the
epidermis, which increases as the
animal grows old, obscures the
internal structures. It is generally
brown, black, or red in colour.
The cuticle and epidermis
enclose a space in which the
various internal organs lie. This
space is traversed by numerous
symmetrically disposed muscle- Fig. 250.—Cast-off cuticle of
fibres, and contains a clear fluid— Macrobiotus tetradactylus, Gr., ×
the blood—which everywhere about 150, containing four eggs in
which the boring apparatus of the
bathes these organs. This fluid embryo can be distinguished. (From R.
evaporates when desiccation Greeff.)
takes place, and is soon replaced
after rain; it forms no coagulum
when reagents are added to it, and it probably differs but little from
water. Floating in it are numerous corpuscles, whose number
increases with age. In well-fed Tardigrades the corpuscles are packed
with food-reserves, often of the same colour—green or brown—as the
 contents of the stomach, which
soon disappear when the little
creatures are starved.
The alimentary canal begins
with an oral cavity, which is in
many species surrounded by
chitinous rings. The number of
Fig. 251.—Echiniscus spinulosus, C.
these rings and their general
Sch., × about 200, seen from the side. arrangement are of systematic
(From Doyère.) importance. The oral cavity opens
behind into a fine tube lined with
chitin, very characteristic of the
Tardigrada, which has been termed the mouth-tube. By its side,
converging anteriorly, lie the two chitinous teeth, which may open
ventrally into the mouth-tube, as in Macrobiotus hufelandi and
Doyeria simplex, or may open directly into the oral cavity, as in
Echiniscus, Milnesium, and some species of Macrobiotus. In some of
the last named the tips of the teeth are hardened by a calcareous
deposit. The hinder end of each stylet or tooth is supported by a
second chitinous tooth-bearer,[375] and the movement of each is
controlled by three muscles, one of which, running forwards to the
mouth, helps to protrude the tooth, whilst the other two running
upwards and downwards to the sheath of the pharynx, direct in what
plane the tooth shall be moved.
The mouth-tube passes suddenly into the muscular sucking
pharynx, which is pierced by a continuation of its chitinous tube.
Roughly speaking, the pharynx is spherical; the great thickness of its
walls is due to radially arranged muscles which run from the
chitinous tube to a surrounding membrane. When the muscles
contract, the lumen of the tube is enlarged, and food, for the most
part liquid, is sucked in. Two large glands, composed of cells with
conspicuous nuclei, but with ill-defined cell outlines, pour their
contents into the mouth in close proximity to the exit of the teeth.
The secretion of the glands—often termed salivary glands—is said in
many cases to be poisonous.
The pharynx may be followed by a distinct oesophagus, or it may
pass almost immediately into the stomach, which consists of a layer
of six-sided cells arranged in very definite rows. In fully-fed
specimens these cells project into
the lumen with a well-rounded
contour. Posteriorly the stomach
contracts and passes into the
narrow rectum, which receives
anteriorly the products of the
excretory canals and the
reproductive organs, and thus
forms a cloaca. Its transversely
placed orifice lies between the last
pair of legs. The food of
Tardigrades is mainly the sap of
mosses and other humble plants,
the cell-walls of which are pierced
by the teeth of the little creatures.
The organs to which an
excretory function has been
attributed are a pair of lateral
caeca, which vary much in size
according as the possessor is well
or ill nourished. They recall the
Malpighian tubules of such Mites
as Tyroglyphus. Nothing
comparable in structure to
nephridia or to coxal glands has
been found. Fig. 252.—Macrobiotus schultzei, Gr.,
The muscles show a beautiful × 150. (Modified from Greeff.) a, The
symmetry. There are ventral, six inner papillae of the mouth; b, the
dorsal, and lateral bundles, and chitin-lined oesophagus; c, calcareous
others that move the limbs and spicule; d, muscle which moves the
spicule; e, muscular pharynx with
teeth, but the reader must be masticating plates; f, salivary glands; g,
referred to the works of Basse, stomach; h, ovary; i, median dorsal
Doyère,[376] and Plate[377] for the accessory gland; k, diverticula of
details of their arrangement. The rectum.
muscle-fibres are smooth.
The nervous system consists of a brain or supra-oesophageal
ganglion, whose structure was first elucidated by Plate, and a ventral
chain of four ganglia. Anteriorly the brain is rounded, and gives off a
 nerve to the skin; posteriorly each
half divides into two lobes, an
inner and an outer. The latter
bears the eye-spot when this is
present. Just below this eye a
slender nerve passes straight to
the first ventral ganglion. The
brain is continued round the oral
cavity as a thick nerve-ring, the
ventral part of which forms the
sub-oesophageal ganglion, united
by two longitudinal commissures
Fig. 253.—Brain of Macrobiotus to the first ventral ganglion. Thus
hufelandi, C. Sch., × about 350. (From the brain has two channels of
Plate.) Seen from the side. ap, Lobe of communication between it and
brain bearing the eye; ce, supra- the ventral nerve-cord on each
oesophageal ganglion; d, tooth; Ga,
first ventral ganglion; ga’, sub-
side, one by means of the slender
oesophageal ganglion; k, thickening of nerve above mentioned, and one
the epidermis round the mouth; oc, through the sub-oesophageal
eye-spot; oe, oesophagus; op, nerve ganglion. The ventral chain is
running from the ocular lobe of the composed of four ganglia
brain to the first ventral ganglion; ph, connected together by widely
pharynx. divaricated commissures. Each
ganglion gives off three pairs of
nerves, two to the ventral musculature, and one to the dorsal. The
terminations of these nerves in the muscles are very clearly seen in
these transparent little creatures, though there is still much dispute
as to their exact nature.
The older writers considered the Tardigrada as hermaphrodites,
but Plate and others have conclusively shown that they are bisexual,
at any rate in the genus Macrobiotus. The males are, however, much
rarer than the females. The reproductive organs of both sexes are
alike. Both ovary and testis are unpaired structures opening into the
intestine, and each is provided with a dorsal accessory gland placed
near its orifice. In the ovary many of the eggs are not destined to be
fertilised, but serve as nourishment for the more successful ova
which survive.
 No special circulatory or respiratory organs exist, and, as in many
other simple organisms, there is no connective tissue.
The segmentation of the egg in
M. macronyx is total and equal,
according to the observations of
von Erlanger.[378] A blastula,
followed by a gastrula, is formed.
The blastopore closes, but later
the anus appears at the same
spot. There are four pairs of
mesodermic diverticula which
give rise to the coelom and the
chief muscles. The reproductive
organs arise as an unpaired
diverticulum of the alimentary
canal, which also gives origin to
the Malpighian tubules. The
development is thus very
primitive and simple, and affords
no evidence of degeneration. Fig. 254.—Male reproductive organs of
With regard to their position in Macrobiotus hufelandi, C. Sch., ×
about 350. (From Plate.) a.ep,
the animal kingdom, writers on Epidermal thickening round anus; cl,
the Tardigrada are by no means cloaca; gl.d, accessory gland; gl.l,
agreed. O. F. Müller placed them Malpighian gland; st, stomach; te,
with the Mites; Schultze and testis; x, mother-cells of spermatozoa.
Ehrenberg near the Crustacea;
Dujardin and Doyère with the
Rotifers near the Annelids; and von Graff with the Myzostomidae
and the Pentastomida. Plate regards them as the lowest of all air-
breathing Arthropods, but he carefully guards himself against the
view that they retain the structure of the original Tracheates from
which later forms have been derived. He looks upon Tardigrades as a
side twig of the great Tracheate branch, but a twig which arises
nearer the base of the branch than any other existing forms. These
animals seem certainly to belong to the Arthropod phylum,
inasmuch as they are segmented, have feet ending in claws,
Malpighian tubules, and an entire absence of cilia. The second and
third of these features indicate a relationship with the Tracheate
groups; on the other hand there is an absence of paired sensory
appendages, and of mouth-parts. Von Erlanger has pointed out that
the Malpighian tubules, arising as they do from the mid-gut, are not
homologous with the Malpighian tubules of most Tracheates, and he
is inclined to place this group at the base or near the base of the
whole Arthropod phylum. They, however, show little resemblance to
any of the more primitive Crustacea. The matter must remain to a
large extent a matter of opinion, but there can be no doubt that the
Tardigrades show more marked affinities to the Arthropods than to
any other group of the animal kingdom.
Biology.—Spallanzani, who published in the year 1776 his
Opuscules de physique animale et végétale, was the first
satisfactorily to describe the phenomena of the desiccation of
Tardigrades, though the subject of the desiccation of Rotifers,
Nematodes, and Infusoria had attracted much notice, since
Leeuwenhoek had first drawn attention to it at the very beginning of
the century. In its natural state and in a damp atmosphere
Tardigrades live and move and have their being like other animals,
but if the surroundings dry up, or if one be isolated on a microscopic
slide and slowly allowed to dry, its movements cease, its body
shrinks, its skin becomes wrinkled, and at length it takes on the
appearance of a much weathered grain of sand in which no parts are
distinguishable. In this state, in which it may remain for years, its
only vital action must be respiration, and this must be reduced to a
minimum. When water is added it slowly revives, the body swells,
fills out, the legs project, and gradually it assumes its former plump
appearance. For a time it remains still, and is then in a very
favourable condition for observation, but soon it begins to move and
resumes its ordinary life which has been so curiously interrupted.
All Tardigrades have not this peculiar power of revivification—
anabiosis, Preyer calls it—it is confined to those species which live
amongst moss, and the process of desiccation must be slow and,
according to Lance,[379] the animal must be protected as much as
possible from direct contact with the air.
According to Plate, the Tardigrada are free from parasitic Metazoa,
which indeed could hardly find room in their minute bodies. They
are, however, freely attacked by Bacteria and other lowly vegetable
organisms, and these seem to flourish in the blood without
apparently producing any deleterious effects on the host. Plate also
records the occurrence of certain enigmatical spherical bodies which
were found in the blood or more usually in the cells of the stomach.
These bodies generally appeared when the Tardigrades were kept in
the same unchanged water for some weeks. Nothing certain is known
as to their nature or origin.
Systematic.—A good deal of work has recently been done by Mr.
James Murray on the Polar Tardigrades and on the Tardigrades of
Scotland, many of which have been collected by the staff of the Lake
Survey.[380] Over forty species have been described from North
Britain.
The following table of Classification is based on that drawn up by
Plate:—
 Table of Genera.
I. The claws of the legs are simple, without a second hook. If there
are several on the same foot they are alike in structure and size.
A. The legs are short and broad, each with at least two claws.

2–4 claws Gen. 1. ECHINISCUS, C. Sch. (Fig. 249).

7–9 claws Sub-gen. 1a. ECHINISCOIDES, Plate.

B. The legs are long and slender; each bears only one small
claw.

Gen. 2. LYDELLA, Doy.

II. The claws of the legs are all or partly two- or three-hooked.
Frequently they are of different lengths.
A. There are no processes or palps around the mouth.
I. The muscular sucking pharynx follows closely on the
mouth-tube.
α. The oral armature consists on each side of a stout
tooth and a transversely placed support.

Gen. 3. MACROBIOTUS, C. Sch.

(Fig. 252).

β. The oral armature consists on each side of a stylet-

like tooth without support.

Gen. 4. DOYERIA, Plate.

II. The mouth-tube is separated from the muscular

sucking pharynx by a short oesophagus.

Gen. 5. DIPHASCON, Plate (Fig.

255).
 B. Six short processes or palps surround the mouth, and
two others are placed a little farther back.

Gen. 6. MILNESIUM, Doy.

1. Genus ECHINISCUS (= EURYDIUM, Doy.).—The dorsal cuticle

is thick, and divided into a varying number of shields, which bear
thread- or spike-like projections. The anterior end forms a proboscis-
like extension of the body. Two red eye-spots. There are many
species, and the number has increased so rapidly in the last few years
that specialists are talking of splitting up the genus. E. arctomys,
Ehrb.; E. mutabilis, Murray; E. islandicus, Richters; E. gladiator,
Murray; E. wendti, Richters; E. reticulatus, Murray; E. oihonnae,
Richters; E. granulatus, Doy.; E. spitzbergensis, Scourfield;[381] E.
quadrispinosus, Richters; and E. muscicola, Plate, are all British.
More than one-half of these species are also Arctic, and E. arctomys
is in addition Antarctic. In fact, the group is a very cosmopolitan one.
The genus is also widely distributed vertically, specimens being
found in cities on the sea level and on mountains up to a height of
over 11,000 feet.
1a. Sub-genus ECHINISCOIDES differs from the preceding in the
number of the claws, the want of definition in the dorsal plates, and
in being marine. The single species E. sigismundi, M. Sch., is found
amongst algae in the North Sea (Ostend and Heligoland).
2. Genus LYDELLA.[382]—The long, thin legs of this genus have two
segments, and in other respects approach the Arthropod limb.
Marine. Plate suggests the name L. dujardini for the single species
known.
3. Genus MACROBIOTUS has a pigmented epidermis, but eye-
spots may be present or absent. The eggs are laid one at a time, or
many leave the body at once. They are either quite free or enclosed in
a cast-off cuticle. The genus is divided into many species and shows
signs of disruption. They mostly live amongst moss; but M.
macronyx, Doy., is said to live in fresh water. The following species
are recorded from North Britain: M. oberhäuseri, Doy.; M.
hufelandi, Schultze; M. zetlandicus, Murray; M. intermedius, Plate;
M. angusti, Murray; M. annulatus, Murray; M. tuberculatus, Plate;
M. sattleri, Richters; M. papillifer, Murray; M. coronifer, Richters;
 M. crenulatus, Richters; M.
harmsworthi, Murray; M.
orcadensis, Murray; M.
islandicus, Richters; M. dispar,
Murray; M. ambiguus, Murray;
M. pullari, Murray; M. hastatus,
Murray; M. dubius, Murray; M.
echinogenitus, Richters; M.
ornatus, Richters; M. macronyx?,
Doy.
4. Genus DOYERIA.—The teeth
of this genus have no support,
and the large salivary glands of
the foregoing genus are absent; in
other respects Doyeria, with the
single species Doyeria simplex,
Plate, resembles Macrobiotus,
and is usually to be found in
consort with M. hufelandi, C. Sch.
5. Genus DIPHASCON
resembles M. oberhäuseri, Doy.,
but an oesophagus separates the
mouth-tube from the sucking
pharynx, and the oral armature is
weak. The following species are
British, the first named being
very cosmopolitan, being found at
both Poles, in Chili, Europe, and
Asia: D. chilenense, Plate; D.
Fig. 255.—Diphascon chilenense, Plate, scoticum, Murray; D. bullatum,
× about 100. (From Plate.) ce, Brain; k, Murray; D. angustatum, Murray;
thickening of the epidermis above the
mouth; o, egg; oe, oesophagus; p,?
D. oculatum, Murray; D.
salivary glands; ph, pharynx; sa, blood alpinum, Murray; D.
corpuscles; st, stomach. spitzbergense, Murray.
6. Genus MILNESIUM has a
soft oral armature, and the teeth
open straight into the mouth. A lens can usually be distinguished in
the eyes. Two species have been described, M. tardigradum, Doy.,
British, and M. alpigenum, Ehrb. Bruce and Richters consider that
these two species are identical.
 CHAPTER XX
[383]
PENTASTOMIDA

OCCURRENCE—ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE—STRUCTURE
—DEVELOPMENT AND LIFE-HISTORY—SYSTEMATIC

Pentastomids are unpleasant-looking, fluke-like or worm-like

animals, which pass their adult lives in the nasal cavities, frontal
sinuses, and lungs of flesh-eating animals, such as the Carnivora,
Crocodiles, and Snakes; more rarely in Lizards, Birds, or Fishes.
From these retreats their eggs or larvae are sneezed out or coughed
up, or in some other way expelled from the body of their primary
host, and then if they are eaten, as they may well be if they fall on
grass, by some vegetable-feeding or omnivorous animal, they
undergo a further development. If uneaten the eggs die. When once
in the stomach of the second host, the egg-shell is dissolved and a
larva emerges (Fig. 260, p. 494), which bores through the stomach-
wall and comes to rest in a cyst in some of the neighbouring viscera.
Here, with occasional wanderings which may prove fatal to the host,
it matures, and should the second host be eaten by one of the first,
the encysted form escapes, makes its way to the nasal chambers or
lungs, and attaching itself by means of its two pairs of hooks, comes
to rest on some surface capable of affording nutriment. Having once
taken up its position the female seldom moves, but the males, which
are smaller than the females, are more active. They move about in
search of a mate. Further, should the host die, both sexes, after the
manner of parasites, attempt to leave the body. Like most animals
who live entirely in the dark they develop no pigment, and have a
whitish, blanched appearance.
The only species of Pentastomid which has any economic
importance is Linguatula taenioides of Lamarck, which is found in
the nose of the dog, and much more rarely in the same position in
the horse, mule, goat, sheep, and man. It is a comparatively rare
parasite, but occurred in about 10 per cent of the 630 dogs in which
it was sought at the laboratory of Alfort, near Paris, and in 5 out of
60 dogs examined at Toulouse. The symptoms caused by the
presence of these parasites are not usually very severe, though cases
have been recorded where they have caused asphyxia. The larval
stages occur in the rabbit, sheep, ox, deer, guinea-pig, hare, rat,
horse, camel, and man, and by their wandering through the tissues
may set up peritonitis and other troubles.
As in the Cestoda, which they so closely resemble in their life-
history, the nomenclature of the Pentastomids has been complicated
by their double life. For long the larval form of L. taenioides was
known by different names in different hosts, e.g. Pentastoma
denticulatum, Rud., when found in the goat, P. serratum, Fröhlich,
when found in the hare, P. emarginatum when found in the guinea-
pig, and so on. In the systematic section of this article some of the
species mentioned are known in the adult state, some in the larval,
and in only a few has the life-history been fully worked out.
Structure.[384]—The body of a Pentastomid is usually white,
though in the living condition it may be tinged red by the colour of
the blood upon which it lives. The anterior end, which bears the
mouth and the hooks (Fig. 256), has no rings; this has been termed
the cephalothorax. The rest of the body, sometimes called the
abdomen, is ringed, and each annulus is divided into an anterior half
dotted with the pores of certain epidermal glands and a hinder part
of the ring in which these are absent.
On the ventral surface of the cephalothorax, in the middle line, lies
the mouth, elevated on an oral papilla, and on each side of the mouth
are a pair of hooks whose bases are sunk in pits. The hooks can be
protruded from the pits, and serve as organs of attachment. Their
shape has some systematic value.
There are a pair of peculiar papillae which bear the openings of the
“hook-glands,” lying just in front of the pairs of hooks, and other
smaller papillae are arranged in pairs on the cephalothorax and
anterior annuli. The entire body is covered by a cuticle which is
tucked in at the several orifices. This is secreted by a continuous
layer of ectoderm cells. Some of these subcuticular cells are
aggregated together to form very definite glands opening through the
cuticle by pores which have somewhat unfortunately received the
name of stigmata. Spencer attributes to these glands a general
excretory function. There is, however, a very special pair of glands,
the hook-glands, which extend almost from one end to the other of
the body; anteriorly these two lateral glands unite and form the
head-gland (Fig. 257). From this
on each side three ducts pass, one
of which opens to the surface on
the primary papilla; the other two
ducts open at the base of the two
hooks which lie on each side of
the mouth. Leuckart has
suggested that these important
glands secrete some fluid like the
irritating saliva of a Mosquito
which induces an increased flow
of blood to the place where it is of
use to the parasite. Spencer,
however, regards the secretion as
having, like the secretion of the
so-called salivary cells of the
Leech, a retarding action on the
coagulation of the blood of the
host.
The muscles of Pentastomids
are striated. There is a circular
layer within the subcuticular
cells, and within this a
longitudinal layer and an oblique
layer which runs across the body-
cavity from the dorso-lateral
surface to the mid-ventral line, a Fig. 256.—Porocephalus annulatus,
primitive arrangement which Baird. A, Ventral view of head, × 6; B,
recalls the similar division of the ventral view of animal, × 2.
body-cavity into three chambers
in Peripatus and in many Chaetopods. Besides these there are
certain muscles which move the hooks and other structures.
The mouth opens into a pharynx which runs upwards and then
backwards to open into the oesophagus (Fig. 257). Certain muscles
attached to these parts enlarge their cavities, and thus give rise to a
sucking action by whose force the blood of the host is taken into the
alimentary canal. The oesophagus opens by a funnel-shaped valve
into the capacious stomach or mid-gut, which stretches through the
body to end in a short rectum or hind-gut. The anus is terminal.

Fig. 257.—Diagrammatic representation of the alimentary,

secretory, nervous, and reproductive systems of a male
Porocephalus teretiusculus, seen from the side. The nerves are
represented by solid black lines. (From W. Baldwin Spencer.)

1, Head-gland; 2, testis; 3, hook-gland; 4, hind-gut; 5, mid-gut; 6,

ejaculatory
duct; 7, vesicula seminalis; 8, vas deferens; 9, dilator-rod sac; 10,
cirrus-bulb;
11, cirrus-sac; 12, fore-gut; 13, oral papillae.

There appears to be no trace of circulatory or respiratory organs,

whilst the function usually exercised by the nephridia or Malpighian
tubules or by coxal glands, of removing waste nitrogenous matter,
seems, according to Spencer, to be transferred to the skin-glands.
The nervous system is aggregated into a large ventral ganglion
which lies behind the oesophagus. It gives off a narrow band devoid
of ganglion-cells, which encircles that tube. It also gives off eight
nerves supplying various parts, and is continued backward as a ninth
pair of prolongations which, running along the ventral surface, reach
almost to the end of the body (Fig. 257). The only sense-organs
known are certain paired papillae on the head, which is the portion
that most closely comes in contact with the tissues of the host.
Pentastomids are bisexual. The males are as a rule much less
numerous and considerably smaller than the females, although the
number of annuli may be greater.
The ovary consists of a single tube closed behind. This is supported
by a median mesentery. Anteriorly the ovary passes into a right and
left oviduct, which, traversing the large hook-gland, encircle the
alimentary canal and the two posterior nerves (Fig. 258). They then
unite, and at their point of union they receive the ducts of the two
spermathecae, usually found packed with spermatozoa. Having
received the orifices of the spermatheca, the united oviducts are
continued backward as the uterus, a highly-coiled tube in which the
fertilised eggs are stored. These are very numerous; Leuckart
estimated that a single female may contain half a million eggs. The
uterus opens to the exterior in the mid-ventral line a short distance—
in P. teretiusculus on the last ring but seven—in front of the terminal
anus. In L. taenioides the eggs begin to be laid in the mucus of the
nose some six months after the parasite has taken up its position.

Fig. 258.—Diagrammatic representation of the alimentary,

secretory, nervous, and reproductive systems of a female
Porocephalus teretiusculus, seen from the side. The nerves are
represented by solid black lines. (From W. Baldwin Spencer.)

1, Head-gland; 2, oviduct; 3, hook-gland; 4, mid-gut; 5, ovary; 6,

hind-gut; 7,
vagina; 8, uterus; 9, accessory gland; 10, spermatheca.

The testis is a single tube occupying in the male a position similar

to that of the ovary in the female. Anteriorly it opens into two
vesiculae seminales, which, like the oviducts, pierce the hook-glands
and encircle the alimentary canal (Fig. 257). Each vesicula passes
into a vas deferens with a cuticular lining. Each vas deferens also
receives the orifice of a muscular caecal ejaculatory duct, which,
crowded with mature spermatozoa, stretches back through the body.
Anteriorly the vas deferens passes into a cirrus-bulb, which is joined
by a cirrus-sac on one side and a dilator-rod sac on the other,
structures containing organs that assist in introducing the
spermatozoa into the female. The two tubes then unite, and having