‫____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ‪201717– ‬‬

‫‪  ‬‬
‫‪20142000 ‬‬
‫‪The Effect of Using the Fair Value on the Rationalization of the Decision to Invest in‬‬
‫‪Securities - Empirical Study on the Casablanca Market During the Period (2000-2014) -‬‬
‫‪  & &‬‬ ‫)***( ‪Meriem BELLATRECH (*) & Abdghafour DADENE (**) & Abdelouahab DADENE‬‬
‫‪  ‬‬ ‫‪Laboratory Of University, Business And Local Sustainable Development‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪Faculty of Economic, Commercial and Management Sciences‬‬
‫‪ –‬‬ ‫‪Kasdi MERBAH University, Ouargla; Algeria‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻓﻲ‪ & 2017.02.12 :‬ﻗُﺒِﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻓﻲ‪2017.04.04 :‬‬ ‫‪Received: 12.02.2017 & Accepted: 04.04.2017‬‬

‫‪  ‬ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﻟﻰ دراﺳﺔ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‬
‫اھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‪ ،MASI‬وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ ،(2006-2000‬وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ ،(2014-2008‬وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﺎذج ‪.Panel Data‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ان اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺳﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل‬
‫ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎراﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻋﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،IAS32 ،IAS 39 ،‬ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‪.‬‬
‫‪.M41 JEL‬‬
‫‪Abstract : The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the application of fair value on rationalizing‬‬
‫‪the decision to invest in securities, by comparing the information’s relevance of accounting indicators a‬‬
‫‪group which included in the for a sample of enterprises listed on the MASI index, between pre-fair value‬‬
‫‪period (2001-2003) and the post-fair value (2005-2007). Using models Panel Data.‬‬
‫‪This study finds out that the use of fair value has contributed to improve average earnings per share for‬‬
‫‪Moroccan enterprises, Through improvement in the information provided in accordance with the use of fair‬‬
‫‪value and that helps to rationalize the decision to invest in securities, except for the Algerian market, which‬‬
‫‪did not show any affected after the use of the fair value of the investment in securities.‬‬
‫‪Keywords : Fair Value, Historical Cost, IAS 39, IAS32, Investment Dicisition.‬‬
‫‪Jel Classification Codes : M41.‬‬
‫‪ .I‬ﺗﻤﮭﯿﺪ‪:‬‬
‫ادى ﻇﮭﻮر اﻟﻌﻮﻟﻤﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺗﺰاﯾﺪ ارﺗﺒﺎط اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻃﺎر اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪث ﻓﻲ اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺷﮭﺪت ﺗﻄﻮرا ﻛﺒﯿﺮا ﻟﻢ ﯾﺴﺒﻖ ﻟﮫ ﻣﺜﯿﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻵوﻧﺔ اﻻﺧﯿﺮة‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻇﮭﻮر ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫دوﻟﯿﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﺻﺪار اﻟﻤﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﻮاﻛﺐ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﺪات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼت‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻻدوات‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﻇﮭﻮر ادوات ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻌﻘﯿﺪا )اﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ(‪ ،‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻦ اھﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ذات ﺷﻔﺎﻓﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ ﺿﻤﺎن ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ اﻃﺎر اﻟﺘﻨﺴﯿﻖ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ وﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﺺ اﻟﻔﻮراق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻤﻮل ﺑﮭﺎ ﻣﺤﻠﯿﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﺖ اﻟﮭﯿﺌﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺻﺪار ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ دوﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻜﯿﻨﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺔ ذات ﺟﻮدة ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﻢ إﺻﺪار ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﺪﻋﻮ اﻟﻰ ﻣﻔﺎھﯿﻢ ﺣﺪﯾﺜﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ اھﻢ ﻣﺎ دﻋﺖ اﻟﯿﮫ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﮭﯿﺌﺎت ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺎھﯿﻢ‬
‫ھﻮ اﻟﺘﻮﺟﮫ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻔﮭﻮم اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻤﺎ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ أﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻎ اﻷھﻤﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ اﻟﻘﺮارات اﻟﻤﺘﺨﺬة ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮف‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ واﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﮭﻲ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺣﻮل اﺳﻌﺎر اﻻﺳﮭﻢ واداء اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻗﺪ ازداد اﻻھﺘﻤﺎم ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﺑﻤﻮﺿﻮع اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷن اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﮭﺎت ذات اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺸﺮه اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﻻ ﺗﻤﻠﻚ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ﺳﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺘﺎﺟﮫ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة‪ ،‬وﺗﻌﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻔﺎھﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆدي دورا ھﺎﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ إﺛﺮاء ﻗﯿﻤﺔ وﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﯿﺔ وﻛﻔﺎءة اﺳﺘﻐﻼل اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﻟﻼوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ اﻛﺒﺮ‬
‫ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ ﻟﻼوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻓﺮﯾﻘﯿﺎ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻀﻢ ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ ‪ 80‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺪرﺟﺔ ﺗﻨﺸﻂ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎت ﻋﺪﯾﺪة‪ ،1‬وﻗﺪ اﻟﺘﺰﻣﺖ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ IFRS‬ﻣﻨﺬ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ،2007‬وﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻃﺮح اﻻﺷﻜﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
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‫‪eMail : (*) : Bellatrechmeriem@gmail.com & (**) Dadene16@gmail.com & (***) Dadene2004@yahoo.fr‬‬

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‫أﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪- (2014-2000‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻣﺪى ﻣﺴﺎھﻤﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق‬
‫اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء؟‬
‫وﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ اﻻﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﻤﻄﺮوح اﻋﺘﻤﺪﻧﺎ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : H1 ‬اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺳﻮف ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺠﺰﺋﺔ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﻰ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : H1.1 ‬اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﻘﺪم ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ اھﻤﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ؛‬
‫‪ : H1.2 ‬اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻘﺪم ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ اھﻤﯿﺔ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ؛‬
‫‪ : H1.3 ‬اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻘﺪم ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ اھﻤﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ؛‬
‫‪ : H1.4 ‬اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻘﺪم ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ اھﻤﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ؛‬
‫‪ : H2 ‬ان اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻻﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﺤﻞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﮭﺪف ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺎﺳﺒﻖ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﺘﺮﺷﯿﺪ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﻟﺨﺮوج ﺑﺤﻠﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ وﺗﻮﺻﯿﺎت ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻮاﺟﮫ ﺳﻮق‬
‫اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ وﺟﻌﻠﮫ اﻛﺜﺮ ﺟﺎھﺰﯾﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺘﺢ اﻓﺎق ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺎت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺳﻨﻌﺘﻤﺪ اﻟﻤﻨﮭﺞ اﻻﻓﺘﺮاﺿﻲ اﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﻲ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ودراﺳﺔ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ اھﺪاف اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻧﻈﻤﻨﺎ دراﺳﺘﻨﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ :‬ﺳﻨﻘﺪم ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺪراﺳﺘﻨﺎ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﺳﻨﺘﻄﺮق اﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﮭﺠﯿﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ واﺧﯿﺮا اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ واﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ وﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ اﻟﻤﺴﯿﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮارات‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬وﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪ ،2‬ﺣﯿﺚ ان ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ اﺟﺮﯾﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺣﻮل‬
‫ﻓﺎﺋﺪة اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،3‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻗﺎم )‪ (kuns et all, 2011‬ﺑﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﺮارات‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ وﺟﺪوا أن اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﯾﻌﺘﻘﺪون أن اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﻮدات ھﻲ أﻛﺜﺮ أھﻤﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺎت‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎن اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻐﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺠﺪون ﺑﺎن‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺪاول اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟﻘﺼﯿﺮ‪ 4،‬وﺣﺴﺐ )‪ (Bowen et all, 2009‬ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ وذات ﺻﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدات وﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺒﻨﻮك ‪ 5،‬وﻓﻲ دراﺳﺔ اﺟﺮاھﺎ )‪ (Joachim, Schwedler, 2008‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 242‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة واﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎم ﻓﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺠﻮاب اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﺮﻓﯿﻦ وﻣﺴﺘﺸﺎرﯾﮭﻢ واﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ واﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ ﺣﻮل ﻣﻔﺎھﯿﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ واﯾﮭﺎ اﻧﺴﺐ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﻔﯿﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺻﻠﻮ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﻰ ان اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ دراﯾﺔ ﺑﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪،‬‬
‫وﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻔﺎھﯿﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس اﻻﺧﺮى‪ ،‬ﻏﯿﺮ اﻧﮭﻢ ﯾﻔﻀﻠﻮن اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻢ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻻﺻﻮل‬
‫واﻟﺨﺼﻮم‪ ،6‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎم )‪ Whitehouse (2010‬ﺑﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ واﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺿﺢ ذﻟﻚ ﺑﺄﻧﮫ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮون ﻋﺰزو اﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ وﺑﺸﻜﻞ واﺳﻊ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ اﻻﻓﺼﺎﺣﺎت واﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ذات ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ وﺗﻤﻜﻨﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﺗﺨﺎذ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮارات‪ ،7‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻋﺘﺒﺮت ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮف اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻻﻛﺎدﻣﯿﯿﻦ واﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﯿﻦ ﻛﻨﮭﺞ ﺛﻮري ﯾﺴﺎﻋﺪ اﺗﺨﺎذ‬
‫ﻗﺮارات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﻘﺪم اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻼﺻﻮل اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.8‬‬
‫وﻗﺪ أﻛﺪت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ دراﺳﺔ اﺟﺮاھﺎ )‪ (Kluever, 2012‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻌﻘﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ ﻋﻤﺎن ﺑﺎن‬
‫ﻗﯿﺎﺳﺎت ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ھﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ وﺗﺨﺪم اﻟﮭﺪف اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪة ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬
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‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﻢ ‪.‬‬
‫وﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﺮﺿﺖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻘﺎﺷﺎت‪ ،‬ﻓﺒﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ان ھﻨﺎك اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ واﻻﺧﺘﺼﺎﺻﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﯿﻦ ﯾﺆﯾﺪون اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬اﻻ ان ھﻨﺎك اﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﯾﻌﺮﺿﻮﻧﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﯾﺪور اﻻﺧﺘﻼف اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪي ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪،‬‬
‫وھﻲ ﻓﺎﺋﺪة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ‪ ،‬واﻟﻤﻮﺛﻮﻗﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻲ دﻗﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،10‬ﺣﯿﺚ ان واﺿﻌﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮاﺟﮭﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ اﻟﻜﻼﺳﯿﻜﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﻌﺮوﻓﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻤﺔ واﻟﻤﻮﺛﻮﻗﯿﺔ‪" :‬اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻻت ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺴﻮق ﺗﻜﻮن اﺳﮭﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻘﻖ واﺻﻌﺐ ﻟﻠﺘﻼﻋﺐ"‪ ،‬واﻟﻤﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ‬

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‫____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ‪201717– ‬‬

‫اﻻﺧﺮى‪" :‬اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﺮف ﺑﺎﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻓﻲ وﻗﺖ ﻣﺒﻜﺮ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻦ اﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﺘﺪاﺑﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ وﻓﻲ وﻗﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺒﻜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﮭﻲ ﺗﺠﻨﺐ اﺧﻔﺎء اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺤﺪث ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ"‪.11‬‬
‫وھﻨﺎك ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ;‪(Barth 1994; Nelson 1996;Graham et al 2003 ; Gharbi et al 2014‬‬
‫)‪ Khadash et al 2014; Burhan et al 2015; Riahi 2016‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﮭﻢ ﻣﺆﯾﺪة ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬واﺧﺮى ‪(Al-Khadash‬‬
‫)‪ 2009; Hamdi et al 2010‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﺎرﺿﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 12: (1994 ،Barth‬وﺗﮭﺪف اﻟﻰ ﻛﺸﻒ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرات ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼل اﻻرﺑﺎح و اﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس ھﺬه اﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮات واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﻓﻲ اﺳﻌﺎر اﻻﺳﮭﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻷﻣﺮﯾﻜﯿﺔ )‪ 73-50‬ﺑﻨﻚ( ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪ ،(1990-1971‬وﻗﺪ ارﺗﻜﺰت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ‪:‬اﻻول ﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﮭﻢ‪ ،‬واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﺮاﺳﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﺳﺐ وﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ‬
‫اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ أن ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﯾﮭﺎ ﻗﻮة ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ إﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‬
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‫‪ -2‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ :(1996 ،Nelson‬ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮك‬
‫وﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﺢ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ ﺑﯿﺎن ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ رﻗﻢ ‪" SFAS107‬اﻹﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻸدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ"‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ ﺷﻤﻠﺖ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 146‬ﺑﻨﻚ اﻣﺮﯾﻜﻲ وﺷﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺑﻀﺔ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 1992‬و ‪ 133‬ﺑﻨﻚ اﻣﺮﯾﻜﻲ‬
‫وﺷﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺑﻀﺔ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 1993‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻲ دراﺳﺘﮫ ﻧﻤﺎذج ﺗﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وان ھﻨﺎك ﻗﻮة ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ؛‬
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‫‪ -3‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ :(2003 ،Graham, Lefanowicz and Petroni‬ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر أھﻤﯿﺔ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫إﻓﺼﺎﺣﺎت اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻸوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺪاوﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻨﺎ وﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﻠﻜﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ‪ 172‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺳﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪، 1997-1993‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﻮذج )‪ ،(Olson,1995‬وﺗﺸﯿﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ان إﻓﺼﺎﺣﺎت اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرات ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﻠﻜﯿﺔ ﻟﺪﯾﮭﺎ ﻗﻮة ﻓﻲ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ وﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﻷﺳﮭﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 15:(2009 ،Al-Khadash, Abdullatif‬ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺪه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻼدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻداء اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻻرﺑﺎح ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﻠﺪان اﻟﻨﺎﻣﯿﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ اﻃﺎر ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﯿﺎر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ رﻗﻢ ‪ ، IAS 39‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺨﺘﺒﺮ ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ دﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻻردﻧﯿﺔ‬
‫ورﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ ﺷﻤﻠﺖ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 12‬ﺑﻨﻚ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﻤﻤﺘﺪة ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم ‪ 2002‬اﻟﻰ ﻏﺎﯾﺔ ‪ ،2006‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻰ إن اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻼدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﺸﻮه اﻻرﺑﺎح وﯾﻀﻠﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان‬
‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻌﯿﻖ ﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ اﺳﻮاق اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﻠﺪان اﻟﻨﺎﻣﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 16:(2010 ،Hamdi, Elabidi‬وﺗﮭﺪف اﻟﻰ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻓﺎﺋﺪة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮار‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻨﻮﻋﯿﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﺘﮭﺎ‬
‫وﻗﺎﺑﻠﺘﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ اﺳﺘﮭﺪﻓﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﻄﻼع ﻻراء ﻣﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﻓﺮﻧﺴﯿﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺑﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 71‬ﻣﺤﻠﻞ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﺒﯿﺎن ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ وﺟﮭﺎت ﻧﻈﺮھﻢ ﺑﺸﺄن ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ اﺗﻔﻖ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﻤﺠﯿﺒﯿﻦ ﺑﺄن اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﻀﻌﻒ ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﯿﺔ وﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 17:(2014 ،Gharbi, Halioui‬ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺪم اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻻﺳﻼﻣﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪﯾﺔ ﻟﺪول اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻇﮭﺎر اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫وﻋﺪم اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم‪ ،‬وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎص ﻋﻠﻰ آﺛﺎر اﻻرﺑﺎح واﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﻔﺎﯾﺔ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‬
‫وﺳﻠﻮك اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮة ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻻﺳﻼﻣﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪ 2011-2003‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺷﻤﻠﺖ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ‪ 85‬ﺑﻨﻚ‬
‫اﺳﻼﻣﻲ و‪ 223‬ﺑﻨﻚ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﺪي‪ ،‬وﺗﻢ اﺟﺮاء اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت وﻓﻖ اﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺼﻐﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺘﯿﻦ‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ان راس اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﺘﻨﻈﯿﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺎرف اﻻﺳﻼﻣﯿﺔ اﻗﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﺮا ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪﯾﺔ‪ ،‬رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﮭﻲ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻮاﺟﮭﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻘﯿﺎس اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫‪ -7‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ :(2014 ،Khadash ,Khasawneh‬ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻇﮭﺎر ﻣﺪى ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ وﻓﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ‪ IAS 40‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎت اﻻرﺑﺎح )‪ (EPS‬ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﺔ اﻷردﻧﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻻﻋﺘﺮاف ﺑﺎﻻرﺑﺎح‬
‫واﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ ﻋﻤﺎن )‪ ،(ASE‬وﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ‬
‫ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﺑـ ‪ 94‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﻮذج )‪ (Olson,1995‬ﺑﺎﻻﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﻨﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻮرة ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮف ‪(Theil,‬‬
‫)‪ ،1971‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻰ ان اﻻرﺑﺎح واﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ وﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫اﻻﻧﺤﺪار‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان اﻟﻤﻜﺎﺳﺐ واﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﺗﺆدي دورا اﺳﺎﺳﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻷردﻧﯿﺔ وان‬
‫إدراﺟﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻮة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻟﻸرﺑﺎح‪.‬‬

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‫أﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪- (2014-2000‬‬

‫‪ -8‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 19:(2015 ،Burhan, Ahmad, Aladwan‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر أھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ وﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﺼﻨﺎع اﻟﻘﺮار ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮار رﺷﯿﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل دراﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﯿﺎﺳﺎت ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﻘﺎرات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻷردﻧﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وأﺳﻌﺎر اﺳﮭﻤﮭﺎ واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذج )‪ ،(Olson,1995‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﺘﺄﻟﻒ ﻣﻦ ‪ 41‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻘﺎرﯾﺔ ﻣﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ ﻋﻤﺎن ﺧﻼل‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪ ،2011-2008‬وأﻇﮭﺮت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻨﺎد إﻟﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺪد أن اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻌﻘﺎرﯾﺔ اﻷردﻧﯿﺔ ﯾﺮﺗﺒﻂ وﺑﺸﻜﻞ إﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ وﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﯿﻤﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬اﻧﮫ‬
‫ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻌﻘﺎرﯾﺔ اﻻردﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -9‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 20:(2016 ،Taouab‬ﺗﮭﺪف اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪى ﺗﻔﻮق اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ IFRS‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ ‪ MAS‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﺘﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﺣﺘﯿﺎﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻢ اﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻋﯿﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 9‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء‪ ،‬واﺳﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﻲ اﻧﺤﺪار ﻣﺘﻌﺪدﯾﻦ‪ ،‬اﻻول ﯾﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﻋﻼﻗﺘﮫ ﺑﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ ووﻓﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﻋﻼﻗﺘﮫ ﺑﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ واﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‬
‫ووﻓﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻧﮫ ﻻ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺮق ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ IFRS‬واﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان اﻋﺘﻤﺎد ھﺬه اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ IFRS‬ﻟﻢ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻦ ﻟﮫ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -10‬دراﺳﺔ )‪ 21:(2016 ،Riahi, Khoufi‬وﺗﮭﺪف اﻟﻰ دراﺳﺔ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ اھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻔﺮﻧﺴﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬
‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻻﻇﮭﺎر ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﺘﻜﻮن اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 22‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ‪ CAC 40‬ﻟﺒﻮرﺻﺔ ﺑﺎرﯾﺲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ دراﺳﺘﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة )‪ ،(2007-2001‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻤﮭﺎ اﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ (2003-2001‬وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ ،(2007-2005‬و ﺗﻢ دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ وﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﻻﺳﮭﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﻲ اﻧﺤﺪار )ﻣﺘﻌﺪد ﺑﺴﯿﻂ(‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ ،Panal data‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ‬
‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ و ان ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﻮﻟﺪ أﺛﺮ اﻹﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﺨﻠﻖ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .II‬اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ و اﻷدوات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ :‬وﻗﻊ اﺧﺘﯿﺎرﻧﺎ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻮرﺻﺔ اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻤﻲ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ‪ ،MASI‬وھﺬا اﻻﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 74‬ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ ،‬وﺑﻌﺪ اﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮوط‬
‫اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ )ﻻ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ )‪ (IAS/IFRS‬اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻼدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬اوﻻ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫ﻣﻜﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺧﻼل ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ او ﻻ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﺻﻼ(‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت‪،‬‬
‫واﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ )اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ ‪ ،(1‬وﻗﺪ ﺷﻤﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ‪ 15‬ﺳﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة )‪ ،(2014-2000‬وﻗﺴﻤﺖ ھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺘﯿﻦ )‪ (2006-2000‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪ (2014-2008‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 2007‬وذﻟﻚ ﻻن ھﻨﺎك ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻟﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ اﻻ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 2008‬ﺣﺘﻰ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺿﻤﮭﺎ ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ :‬وﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎرﻧﺎ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﻘﯿﺎس ﻣﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
‫أ‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺟﯿﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﮭﺬا اﻻﺧﯿﺮ ﯾﻘﺒﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮاء اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻋﻮاﺋﺪھﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﮫ ﯾﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺑﻌﺎﺋﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﯾﺤﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Rit = (Pit + DIVit - P i t-1)/ P i t-1‬‬
‫‪ :Rit‬ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪t‬‬
‫‪ :Pit‬ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪t‬‬
‫‪ :DIVit‬اﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪t‬‬
‫‪ :P i t-1‬ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪t-1‬‬
‫ب‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﺗﻤﺜﻠﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‪ ،‬واﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﻮﺿﺢ )اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ ‪ (3‬ﻗﯿﺎﺳﮭﺎ وﻛﯿﻔﯿﮫ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ اﻋﺘﻤﺪﻧﺎ ﻓﻲ دراﺳﺘﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺘﻲ اﺗﺒﻌﺖ ﻓﻲ دراﺳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ )‪ (Olfa Riahi, 2016‬و ‪(Tayeb Saadi,‬‬
‫‪ 22،(2010‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺳﯿﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Rit = α 0 + α 1 (VC 1 it / Pi, t-1) + α 2 (VC 2 it / Pi, t-1)+ ….+ α k (VC k it / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬

‫‪- 120 -‬‬

‫____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ‪201717– ‬‬

‫ﺣﯿﺚ ان‪:‬‬
‫‪ :Pit‬ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪t‬‬
‫‪ :VC 1 it / Pi, t-1‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﻔﺴﺮة اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪ t‬ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ‬
‫‪‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‪.‬‬
‫‪ :K‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﻔﺴﺮة‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﺮﻛﺰ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة )ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻻرﺑﺎح( ﻓﻲ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﻻﺳﮭﻢ ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻣﺤﻞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻻﻧﺤﺪارات اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻻول ﯾﺴﻌﻰ ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اي ﺑﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬اﻣﺎ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﺴﻌﻰ ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اي ان اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺼﺎدرة ﯾﺘﻢ ﻧﺸﺮھﺎ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﺣﯿﺚ ان ھﺬﯾﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ )‪ (M1, M2‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮھﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻧﻤﺎذج ‪ ،Panel Data‬وﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪.Eviews9‬‬
‫أوﻻ‪ :‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )وﻓﻖ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ(‬
‫ان ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اي ﻓﺘﺮة ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ )‪ ،(2006-2000‬وﻟﮭﺬا‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﺳﮭﻢ ﺗﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة )ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت‬
‫اﻻرﺑﺎح(‪ ،‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻇﮭﺎر ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻻول ‪:M1‬‬
‫)‪Rit = β0 + β1 (CPCHit / Pi, t-1) + β2 (BPACHit / Pi, t-1‬‬
‫‪+ β3 (PERCHit / Pi, t-1) + β4 (DIVCHit / Pi, t-1)+ ɛit‬‬
‫وﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﺎﺋﺪة ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮارات رﺷﯿﺪة‪ ،‬ھﺬا‬
‫ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻨﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 04‬ﻧﻤﺎذج اﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪M1.1 : Rit = β0 + β1 (CPCHit / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬
‫‪M1.2 :Rit = β0 + β1 (BPACHit / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬
‫‪M1.3 :Rit = β0 + β1 (PERCHit / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬
‫‪M1.4 :Rit = β0 + β1 (DIVCHit / Pi, t-1)+ ɛit‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :β0‬اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫‪ :CH‬اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ :JV‬اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫‪ :CPCH‬ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ :BPACH‬رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ :PERCH‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ :DIVCH‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻻرﺑﺎح ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ :Pi, t-1‬ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪t-1‬‬
‫‪ :ɛit‬اﻟﺨﻄﺄ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ‪ :‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫ان ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮة ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ ،(2014-2008‬وﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﺳﮭﻢ ﺗﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة )ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻻرﺑﺎح(‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻇﮭﺎر ﻧﻤﻮذج‬
‫اﻻﻧﺤﺪار وﻓﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪:M2‬‬
‫)‪Rit = β0 + β1 (CPJVit / Pi, t-1) + β2 (BPAJVit / Pi, t-1‬‬
‫‪+ β3 (PERJVit / Pi, t-1) + β4 (DIVJVit / Pi, t-1)+ ɛit‬‬
‫وﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﺎﺋﺪة ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮارات رﺷﯿﺪة‪ ،‬ھﺬا‬
‫ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻨﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 04‬ﻧﻤﺎذج اﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪M2.1 : Rit = β0 + β1 (CPJVit / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬
‫‪M2.2 :Rit = β0 + β1 (BPAJVit / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬

‫‪- 121 -‬‬

‫__________‬
‫أﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪- (2014-2000‬‬

‫‪M2.3 :Rit = β0 + β1 (PERJVit / Pi, t-1) + ɛit‬‬

‫‪M2.4 :Rit = β0 + β1 (DIVJVit / Pi, t-1)+ ɛit‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :CPJV‬ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫‪ :BPAJV‬رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫‪ :PERJV‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫‪ :DIVJV‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻻرﺑﺎح ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫‪ :Pi, t-1‬ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪t-1‬‬
‫‪ -4‬اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‪ :‬وﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ )‪ ،(M1, M2‬ﻓﺈن دراﺳﺔ ﻣﺪى ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻖ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺳﯿﺘﻢ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار )‪ ،(R²‬وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ (2006-2000‬وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ ،(2015-2008‬وﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺼﺪاﻗﯿﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺎت ﻧﺠﺮي اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﯾﻜﺸﻒ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪى ﺣﺪوث ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ھﯿﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺪروﺳﺔ )اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ واﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ( ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺪﻋﻰ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﻲ او اﺧﺘﺒﺎر )‪ ،(Chow 1960‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻨﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎد اﺧﺘﺒﺎرﯾﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎذج ‪ Panel Data‬واﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻻﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ھﺬه اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬اوﻻ‪ :‬اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ ‪Chow‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﻲ او اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ Chow‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺨﺘﺮﻋﮫ )‪ ،(Gregory Chow,1960‬وھﻮ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ واﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‬
‫ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ اذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﺤﺪارﯾﯿﻦ ﺧﻄﯿﯿﻦ ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺘﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺘﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺣﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬
‫اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ Chow‬ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ اذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮﻻت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﻓﺮﻋﯿﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻓﺮاد‬
‫اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.23‬‬
‫وﯾﻘﻮم ھﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮة‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪5%‬؛‬
‫‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮة‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪.5%‬‬
‫وﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪) chow‬اﻧﻈﺮاﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ ‪ (2‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ ،chow‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ان‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺎت اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ‪%99.99‬‬
‫وھﻲ ﺗﻔﻮق ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪ ،%95‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻓﺈن ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ان ھﻨﺎك ﺗﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ اﻟﺤﻖ ﻓﻲ اﺟﺮاء ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻟﻠـ)‪ (R²‬ﺑﯿﻦ ﻓﺘﺮة اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ وﻓﺘﺮة‬
‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ‪ :‬اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ )‪(Lagrange Multipliers‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺤﺪث ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻔﺮوﻗﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺟﺪ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ اي ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اي اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻌﻲ‬
‫وﻧﻤﻮذج اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ اھﻢ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﻧﺠﺪ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻻﻏﺮاﻧﺞ ‪ ،Lagrange Multipliers‬وﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ھﺬا‬
‫اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺬي اﻗﺘﺮﺣﮫ ‪ Breusch and pagan‬ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻻﻏﺮاﻧﺞ )‪ P(LM‬وﻓﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺘﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺘﯿﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :H0 ‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻊ ھﻮ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻢ؛‬
‫‪ :H1 ‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ او ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ھﻮ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻢ‪.‬‬
‫وﻗﺪ اﻇﮭﺮت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ھﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر )اﻧﻈﺮاﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ ‪ (4‬ان )‪ P (LM‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪M1, M1.1,M1.2,M1.3 ,M1.4‬‬
‫)‪ ,M2.1,M2.2,M2.4‬ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ ،%5‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈن ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻊ ﯾﻌﺪ اﻻﻓﻀﻞ واﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﻔﺘﺮض ان ﻛﻞ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺴﻠﻮك ﻣﻦ ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﻌﺒﺮة ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ )ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ(‪ ،‬اﻣﺎ )‪ P (LM‬ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ‪ M2‬و‪ M2.3‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻇﮭﺮت ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ ،5%‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ او ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﯾﻌﺪ اﻻﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬وﻟﻠﻤﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ ﻧﺠﺮي اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻤﻮاﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪ :‬اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪Hausman‬‬
‫ﺑﮭﺪف ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ و ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻧﻌﺘﻤﺪ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ ،Hausman‬ﺣﯿﺚ‬
‫اﻗﺘﺮح ھﺬا اﻻﺧﯿﺮ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ،1978‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﻔﺘﺮض اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻗﻠﯿﻠﺔ ﻟﻌﺪم ارﺗﺒﺎط اﻟﻔﺮوﻗﺎت ﻣﻊ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻨﻲ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ Hausman‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻋﺪم اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻟﯿﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﺪ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪرات اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﻢ اﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻘﺪرات اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺘﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺘﯿﻦ‪:‬‬

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‫____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ‪201717– ‬‬

‫‪ :H0 ‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ھﻮ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻢ؛‬

‫‪ :H1 ‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ھﻮ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻢ‪.‬‬
‫وﻗﺪ اﻇﮭﺮت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ھﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر )اﻧﻈﺮاﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ ‪ (5‬اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ Hausman‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﻇﮭﺮ ھﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻊ )‪ (k²‬اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ %5‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎراﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ھﻮ اﻻﻓﻀﻞ واﻟﺬي ﯾﻔﺘﺮض ان اﺧﺘﻼف اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻰ اﺧﺮى‬
‫ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ وﺟﻮد ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺗﻨﻔﺮد ﺑﮫ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﻤﯿﺰ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺑﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻔﺮوﻗﺎت اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻻﻓﺮاد اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .III‬اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ وﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﮭﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﺟﻞ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرة اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻈﯿﻢ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‬
‫اي ﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻜﺲ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة وﻣﺮﺷﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺳﻨﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ )ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ( ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﯾﮭﻤﺎ اﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ‪ R²a‬ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻄﻠﻌﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ وﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻜﺲ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﮭﻤﺔ وﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﻻﺳﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻨﻘﺎرن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ‪ iβ‬ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻮر اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ وﻋﻮاﺋﺪ‬
‫اﻻﺳﮭﻢ اي ﺗﻘﯿﺲ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ وﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ )اﻧﻈﺮ اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ ‪ (6‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ chow‬اﻟﺬي ﻇﮭﺮ ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺟﺪا واﻟﺬي ﺑﯿﻦ ان‬
‫ھﻨﺎك ﺗﻐﯿﺮات ھﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ واﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺪروﺳﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺣﺪﺛﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ اﺟﺮاء ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﻇﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ان ﺟﻤﯿﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ‪1β‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ اذا اﺳﺘﺜﻨﯿﻨﺎ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﮭﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ذات ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ %5‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‬
‫واﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ اﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻠﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬اﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ‪ 1β‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ ذات ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ %5‬و‪%1‬‬
‫اﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﮭﺎ ﻟﯿﺲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻜﺬا ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ان ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ورﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‬
‫واﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ وﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻟﺘﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﻢ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ اﺷﺎرت اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻰ ان ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ Fisher‬اﯾﺠﺎﺑﯿﺔ وذات ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ %5‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‬
‫ورﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻟﯿﺴﺖ ذات ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‪ ،‬وھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ‬
‫ان ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺤﺪد ﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ‪ R²a‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ وﺟﺪﻧﺎ ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺣﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اھﻤﯿﺔ‬
‫)‪ (cp‬ﻓﻲ اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ان )‪ (cp‬اﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪ (%0.87‬اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ )‪ ،(%8.36‬وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ ان اﻟـ‪ cp‬وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﯾﮭﺎ ﻣﺤﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺆﻛﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﯿﮫ دراﺳﺔ )‪(2003 ،Graham, Lefanowicz and Petroni‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﻻﺳﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺔ ) ‪Graham,‬‬
‫‪ (2003 ،Lefanowicz and Petroni‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ اﻻﺳﮭﻢ‪،‬‬
‫ﻏﯿﺮ اﻧﮭﺎ اﺧﺘﻠﻔﺖ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻦ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2010 ،Hamdi, Elabidi‬واﻟﺘﻲ وﺟﺪت ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﺤﺪث ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎت ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻢ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺟﺎءت ﺑﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﯿﮫ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2016 ،Riahi, Khoufi‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان‬
‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ادى اﻟﻰ ﺗﺪھﻮر ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ )‪ (cp‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ اﻧﮫ وﻓﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻼﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﺧﻠﻖ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ )‪ (H1.1‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﺄﻛﯿﺪھﺎ‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﺑﺨﻼف‬
‫اﻟـ)‪ (BPA‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺘﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﻜﺲ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺗﻨﺎ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺮاﺟﻌﺖ اھﻤﯿﺘﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻟﻠـ)‪ (BPA‬ﻣﻦ )‪ (%4.20‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﻰ )‪ (%0.48‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Al-khadash, Abdullatif, 2009‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان ھﻨﺎك ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫واﯾﺠﺎﺑﯿﺔ ﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻋﻨﺪ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻻدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2016 ،Taouab‬ﻓﻲ ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ IFRS‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪث ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ )‪ ،(BPA‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺘﻌﺎرض ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2016 ،Riahi, Khoufi‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺧﻠﺼﺖ اﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺴﻦ واﺿﺢ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ )‪ ،(H1.2‬وﻗﺪ ادى ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ اھﻤﯿﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ ﻓﻘﺪ ارﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻟﻠـ‪ PER‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫)‪ (%0.63‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﻰ )‪ (%89.77‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ ان ﻟﻠـ‪ PER‬ﻣﺤﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ‬
‫وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﯾﺜﺒﺖ ﺻﺤﺔ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ )‪ ،(H1.3‬اﻣﺎ اھﻤﯿﺔ اﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻻﻓﺼﺎح وﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺮاﺟﻌﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻟﻠـ)‪ (DIV‬ﻣﻦ )‪ (26.52%‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﻰ )‪ (%2.53‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺘﻮاﻓﻖ ﻣﺪ‬

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‫أﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪- (2014-2000‬‬

‫ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺔ )‪ ،(1996،Nelson‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان ﻗﯿﺎس اﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻻ ﺗﻘﺪم ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﻮل‬
‫ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ )‪.(H1.4‬‬
‫وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﺒﯿﻦ ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺣﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اھﻤﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ )‪ (cp‬وﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ‬
‫اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ )‪ (PER‬ﻓﻲ اﻻﻓﺼﺎح وﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﻢ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﺳﮭﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﯿﺮ اﻧﮫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﮭﺔ اﺧﺮى ﻗﺪ ادى ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ‬
‫اھﻤﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ )‪ (BPA‬واﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ )‪ (DIV‬ﻓﻲ اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﺧﺘﺼﺎر ﻓﺈن ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺒﺴﯿﻂ ﺗﺒﯿﻦ ان اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق‬
‫اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اھﻤﯿﺔ وﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ )‪ (cp‬وﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ )‪ ،(PER‬وﺑﮭﺬا ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﺄﻛﯿﺪ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ )‪(H1‬‬
‫ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﯿﻨﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺪد )اﻧﻈﺮاﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ‪ (7‬ﺷﺪة اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات وﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺒﺪو‬
‫ان اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ وﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﺣﺪث ﺑﮫ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ )‪ (0.11‬اﻟﻰ‬
‫)‪ ،(0.003‬وﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ اﻧﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ اﺻﺒﺤﺖ ذات ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ ان ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‬
‫ﯾﻌﺪ اﻻﻓﻀﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺬب اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ وﻓﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ )‪ (0.31‬وھﻮ اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﺑﻠﻐﺎ‬
‫)‪ (0.047‬و)‪ (0.00000006‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ‪ ،‬وﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ وﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺪ اﻟﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ‪ R²a‬ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ واﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﺿﺢ ان اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﯾﮫ ﻗﺪرة ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )‪(%91‬‬
‫وھﻲ اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )‪ ،(%29‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈن ﻣﺒﺪأ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺣﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )‪ ،(%62‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺆﻛﺪ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (1994 ،Barth‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻼوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﯾﻮﻓﺮ ﻗﻮة ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة‬
‫ﺗﻔﻮق ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ وﺗﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﯿﮫ )‪ (1996،Nelson‬ﻓﻲ ان ھﻨﺎك‬
‫ﻗﻮة ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2003 ،Graham, Lefanowicz and Petroni‬اﻟﻰ ان‬
‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﻠﻜﯿﺔ ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‪،‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ دراﺳﺔ ) ‪Hassan,Percy,‬‬
‫‪ (2006 ،Stewart‬ودراﺳﺔ )‪ (2008 ،Danbolt, Rees‬اﻟﻰ ان ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﯾﮭﻤﺎ ﻗﺪرة‬
‫ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ اﻻ ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺪ اﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬اﻣﺎ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2011 ،Brian Bratten, Monika Causholli, Urooj Khan‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺑﯿﻨﺖ‬
‫ان اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج اﺛﻨﺎء ﻓﺘﺮات اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮاﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎن‪ ،‬وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻮاﻓﻘﺖ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻨﺎ ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2012 ،Blankespoor, Linsmeier,Petroni, Shakespeare‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻰ ان اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻘﯿﺎس اﻻدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬ودراﺳﺔ )‪ (2015،Burhan,Ahmad, Aladwan‬ودراﺳﺔ‬
‫)‪ (2016،Bratten,Causholli,Khan‬اﻟﺘﻲ وﺟﺪت ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﺰﯾﺪ وﺗﻌﺰز ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﻋﻜﺲ‬
‫ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﯿﮫ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2016 ،Riahi, Khoufi‬ﻓﻲ ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻻ ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﯿﮫ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (2016 ،Taouab‬ﻓﻲ ان ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ IFRS‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻓﺮق ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ )اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ(‪ ،‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﯾﺘﻢ اﺛﺒﺎت اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ )‪.(H2‬‬
‫‪.IV‬اﻟﺨﻼﺻﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﺎوﻟﻨﺎ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻗﺪرة ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪة اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﻗﻤﻨﺎ اوﻻ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ 4‬ﻧﻤﺎذج ﺑﺴﯿﻄﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﺟﺎﻧﺐ‬
‫واﺣﺪ ھﻮ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺪروﺳﺔ وﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج‬
‫واﺣﺪ ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج واﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻲ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﻨﺎ اﻟﻰ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺣﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اھﻤﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﺟﻌﻠﮭﺎ اﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻘﻼ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺣﻮل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﺘﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ؛‬
‫‪ -‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ادى اﻟﻰ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ اھﻤﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ واﻻرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻘﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈن ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات وﻓﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻧﻔﻮرا ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻌﻨﻲ ان اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ اﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﯿﻦ اھﻤﯿﺔ ھﺬﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻟﺘﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﻢ؛‬
‫وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻓﺈن ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ ﯾﺴﺎﻋﺪان ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮاره‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﻣﺎ اﻛﺪﺗﮫ‬
‫دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Vera Palea , 2014‬ﺑﺄن اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻻ ﯾﻨﺒﻐﻲ اﻋﺘﺒﺎرھﻤﺎ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻷﻧﮭﺎ ﯾﺨﺪﻣﺎن أﻏﺮاﺿﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬وﻻن ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﺣﺪھﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﮫ ان ﯾﺤﺮم ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫واﻟﻤﻔﯿﺪة ﻟﺼﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار‪ ،24‬و)‪ (2014 ،Kaya , Türegün‬ﻓﻲ ان اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻂ ھﻮ اﻻﻧﺴﺐ‪.‬ﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻻدوات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪25‬؛‬
‫‪ -‬ان اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ‪201717– ‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﻠﺤﻖ اﻟﺠﺪاول واﻷﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﯿﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪ : (1‬ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻋﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء‬
‫اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪%‬‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﻨﺸﺎط‬
‫‪50 %‬‬ ‫‪05‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺒﻨﻮك‬
‫‪10 %‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت‬
‫‪20 %‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫‪20 %‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫‪100 %‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪ :(2‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر‪Chow‬‬
‫‪Stat. of Fisher-Snedecor‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪null hypothesis‬‬
‫‪5.63‬‬ ‫‪0.0001‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟـ‪Eview‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪ :(3‬ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ وﻗﯿﺎس ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻃﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺮﻣﯿﺰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاﺟﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‬ ‫‪CP‬‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﺼﺎﻓﯿﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻋﺪد اﻻﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ‬ ‫‪BPA‬‬ ‫رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ اﻟﻰ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ‬ ‫‪PER‬‬ ‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاﺟﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﺴﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‬ ‫‪DIV‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻻرﺑﺎح ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪:(4‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻻﻏﺮاﻧﺞ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‪M1‬‬
‫‪p-value‬‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺒﺎر‪Breush Pagan‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟـ‪Eview‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪:(5‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻻﻏﺮاﻧﺞ و ‪ Hausman‬ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‪M1‬‬
‫‪p-value‬‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪6.21‬‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺒﺎر‪Breush Pagan‬‬
‫‪0.0000‬‬ ‫‪54.12‬‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺒﺎر‪Hausman‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟـ‪Eview‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪ :(6‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪرات اﻟﺒﺴﯿﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ )ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ(‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪(2006-2000‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ )‪(2014-2008‬‬
‫‪M1.1‬‬ ‫‪M1.2‬‬ ‫‪M1.3‬‬ ‫‪M1.4‬‬ ‫‪M2.1‬‬ ‫‪M2.2‬‬ ‫‪M2.3‬‬ ‫‪M2.4‬‬
‫‪1.59E-07‬‬ ‫‪0.012 0.0765 0.0932 4.77E-07 0.0228 0.3685 0.0831‬‬
‫‪1β‬‬
‫‪0.5300‬‬ ‫‪0.047 0.4558 0.0000‬‬ ‫‪0.0087‬‬ ‫‪0.4167 0.0000 0.0992‬‬
‫‪0.3985‬‬ ‫‪4.076 0.5626 25.909‬‬ ‫‪7.299‬‬ ‫‪0.6676 61.60‬‬ ‫‪2.7937‬‬
‫‪F‬‬
‫‪0.5299‬‬ ‫‪0.047 0.4557 0.0000 0.008702 0.4167 0.0000 0.0992‬‬
‫‪R²a‬‬ ‫‪0.0087‬‬ ‫‪0.042 0.0063 0.2652‬‬ ‫‪0.0836‬‬ ‫‪0.0048 0.8977 0.0253‬‬
‫‪chow‬‬ ‫‪0.0001‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟـ‪Eview‬‬

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__________
- (2014-2000) ‫ دراﺳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺪار اﻟﺒﯿﻀﺎء ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬- ‫أﺛﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﯿﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻻوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬

‫ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪارات اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺪدة ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬:(7) ‫اﻟﺠﺪول رﻗﻢ‬
1β 2β 3β 4β R²a F DW
-4.65E-07 -0.001 0.18 0.11 8.27
pré-JV M1 0.29
(0.08) (0.81) (0.05) (0.0000) (0.0000) 1.60
6.11E-07 0.047 0.31 0.003 57.72
post-JV M2 0.91
(0.001) (0.01) (.0000) (0.90) (0.0000) 1.98
Eview‫ ﻣﻦ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟـ‬:‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‬
*Information Sources:
- The accounting and stock market data for selected companies are collected from their financial statements
in annual reports and reference materials that have been extracted either from their official websites and
the website of the Casablanca Stock Exchange.
- https://fr.investing.com
- http://www.attijariwafabank.com
- http://www.maghreboxygene.ma/accueil
- http://www.bmcinet.com
- http://www.bmcecapitalbourse.com
- http://www.afriquiagaz.com
- http://www.afriquiagaz.com
- http://www.afriquiagaz.com
- http://www.cdm.co.ma
- http://www.cosumar.co.ma
: ‫اﻹﺣﺎﻻت واﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ‬
1
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Recognized Level 3 Fair Value on Manager Selling Decisions, thése of Doctoral of Philosophy in
Business at Virginia Commonwealth University, March, 2015, P.8
3
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countries, Procedia Economics and Finance, University of Split / Faculty of Economics, Croatia, 2015,
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4
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5
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Accounting and Impairment Rules on Banks during the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, P.17.
http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/financialstudies/files/files/Fair_Value_Event_study_1023_2009_UK.pd
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6
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http://www.iasplus.com/en/binary/europe/0804germanyfvsummary.pdf
:‫ ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ‬.7
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https://data.bloomberglp.com/solutions/sites/2/2013/09/Fair-Value-Accounting.pdf
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theoretical framework for judgment in financial crisis, P.3.

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201717–  ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.virtusinterpress.org/IMG/pdf/Massimo_Costa_Giusy_Guzzo_paper.pdf
11
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12
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Valuation of Banks, The Accounting Review, Vol. 69, No. 1, January, 1994.
13
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No. 107, The Accounting Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, 1996.
14
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Fair Value Disclosures, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 30(7) & (8), 2003.
15
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Instruments in the Developing Countries: The Case of the Banking Sector in Jordan, Jordan Journal of
Business Administration, Volume 5, No. 4, 2009
16
. Badreddine HAMDI, Houda ELABIDI, L’information comptable en juste valeur : quelle utilite pour
les investisseurs, La place de la dimension européenne dans la Comptabilité Contrôle Audit, Strasbourg,
France, version 1 - 23 Feb 2010.
17
. Gharbi, L. and Halioui,K, Fair value and financial instability: comparative study between Islamic
and conventional banks, Int.ernational Journal. Behavioural Accounting and Finance, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2014.
18
. Husam Aldeen Al-Khadash and Ahmad Y. Khasawneh , The Effects of the Fair Value Option under
IAS 40 on the Volatility of Earnings, Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, vol. 4, no. 5, 2014.
19
. Fadia Burhan, Alhaj Ahmad, Mohammad Suleiman Aladwan, The Effect of Fair Value Accounting on
Jordanian Investment Properties, An Empirical Study on Jordanian Listed Real Estate Companies,
International Journal of Financial Research Vol. 6, No. 4, 2015.
20
. Omar Taouab, Comparative Value Relevance among Domestic Accounting Standards and IFRS: A
Moroccan Stock Market Perspective, Journal of Accounting and Auditing: Research & Practice
http://www.ibimapublishing.com/journals/JAARP/jaarp.html Vol. 2016.
21
. Olfa Riahi, Walid Khoufi, Effect of fair value accounting on the company's reputation, International
Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 4 (1), 2016.
22
. Tayeb Saadi. EVA Vs. resultat net : Quel contenu informationnel dans le contexte francais?, HAL Id,
2010, https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00544950.
‫ ﻓﺈن ﻗﺴﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ‬Christie (1987) ‫ و‬kothari (1992) ‫ ﺣﺴﺐ دراﺳﺔ اﺟﺮاھﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ‬.
.Tayeb Saadi :‫ ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ‬،‫ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﯾﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮاﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﺠﺎﻧﺲ اﻟﺒﻮاﻗﻲ‬
23
. Réda Sefsaf, Contribution à l'analyse de l'e et de l'adoption des IFRS sur la qualité des chiffres
comptables, these de doctorat, Université d'Angers, 2012, P.173.
24
. Vera Palea, Fair value accounting and its usefulness to financial statement users , Journal of
Financial Reporting and Accounting Vol. 12 No. 2, 2014, P.112.
25
. C. T. Kaya ,N. Türegün, Fair value accounting under FAS 157 and IFRS 13: evidence from borsa
Iistanbul, GSTF Journal on Business Review (GBR) Vol.3 No.2, March 2014, P.10.

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