jour nal of

Special Data Feature

peace
R E S E A R C H

Journal of Peace Research

50(4) 509–521
Armed Conflicts, 1946–2012 ª The Author(s) 2013
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343313494396
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Lotta Themnér & Peter Wallensteen
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University

Abstract

In 2012, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 32 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-
related deaths. This is a significant decrease from the 37 recorded in 2011. Overall, the 2000s has been the least
conflict-ridden decade since the 1970s. A worrying finding, however, is that the number of internationalized intrastate
conflicts continued to be at a high level for the fourth consecutive year. At six, the number of wars – conflicts leading
to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths – remained the same as in 2011. In total, UCDP estimates that the conflicts
that were active in 2012 caused between 37,175 (low estimate) and 60,260 (high estimate) battle-related deaths, with
a best estimate of 37,941. The conflict that caused the highest number of fatalities in 2012 is the Syrian conflict, which
led to between 14,830 (low) and 30,805 (high) battle-related deaths, with the best estimate being 15,055. Eleven
armed conflicts listed in 2011 were not active in 2012; however, three new conflicts erupted during the year – India
(Garoland), Mali and South Sudan vs. Sudan (common border) – and three previously registered conflicts were
resumed by new actors. Lastly, 2012 saw an increase in the number of signed peace agreements which had been at
a very low level over the past three years; four accords were concluded during the year, compared with one in 2011.

Keywords
battle-related deaths, conflict, data, peace agreement, war

The year 2012: Number and type of conflicts only five times, with its lowest – 31 – recorded in 2003.
All these five years are in the 2000s.
In 2012, 32 armed conflicts were active in 26 locations
The number of active dyads2 also decreased in 2012,
worldwide.1 This represents a reduction by five since
going from 51 to 41. In five conflicts there were two active
2011 (Themnér & Wallensteen, 2012), and a significant
dyads and in two conflicts – both fought in Pakistan (one
change for the second year in a row. At 32, the number
over government and one over Baluchistan) – three rebel
of armed conflicts was in fact at a relatively low level in
groups were fighting the government simultaneously.
the context of the post-World War II period. In 1973
The average number of active dyads in the 2012 conflicts
the number of conflicts started increasing steadily, pass-
was 1.28, which suggests a lower fragmentation of armed
ing 32 in 1976. And during the following 36 years, the
conflicts in 2012 than in 2011, but also fewer than the
number of active conflicts was at this relatively low level
average for the past decade, which was 1.32.

1 2
An armed conflict is defined as a contested incompatibility that
concerns government or territory or both where the use of armed
force between two parties results in at least 25 battle-related deaths
in a year. Of these two parties, at least one has to be the government
of a state. For an intrastate conflict, the location is a country. For an
interstate conflict, it is two or more countries. Several countries (nota-
bly India) have several separate conflicts going on at the same time,
fought over different incompatibilities, which is why the number of
conflicts exceeds the number of locations. For in-depth definitions of
key concepts, see http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/.
A dyad is defined as a pair of warring parties. In interstate conflicts,
these warring parties are governments of states, whereas in intrastate
conflicts, one is the government of a state and the other is a rebel
group. For more information about the dyadic dimension of armed
conflict, see Harbom, Melander & Wallensteen (2008). The
UCDP Dyadic Dataset can be downloaded from http://
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_dyadic_dataset/.
Corresponding author:
lotta.themner@pcr.uu.se
510
Going back to the end of World War II, there have
been 541 dyads in 252 conflicts active in 153 locations
worldwide. The annual incidence of conflict and conflict
dyads since 1989 is recorded in Tables I and II. Figure 1
shows the trend in the number of active armed conflicts
since 1946.
In 2012, 31 of the 32 active conflicts were fought
within states. Of these, eight (25%) were internationa-
lized, meaning that they saw international involvement
with troop support from an external state to one or both
warring parties in the conflict. These conflicts were
Afghanistan, Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh), Central
African Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Somalia, USA and Yemen.3
The number of intrastate conflicts which had an inter-
national dimension thus remained at a very high level.
For the fourth consecutive year, over 20% of the active
conflicts saw external troop involvement. This is unpre-
cedented in the post-World War II period and may
have negative implications for the prospects of solving
these conflicts (Cunningham, 2010).4
Just like in 2011, one interstate conflict was active in
2012, albeit a different one: South Sudan vs. Sudan
(common border).5 Relations between the two states
have been hostile ever since South Sudan gained inde-
pendence in July 2011 with numerous issues causing
strains. Tensions stemming from the ambiguity pertain-
ing to their common border, which has not yet been
demarcated, were further fuelled by the fact that both
sides supported rebel groups in the neighbouring coun-
try, and as such also fought a war by proxy (for more
on this, see the sections below that discuss the intrastate
conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan). At the end of
March 2012 hostilities escalated over the disputed oil-
rich area of Heglig (or Panthou, as it is called by the
3 the loosely organized FSA (Free Syrian Army), which
See Appendix 1 for information on the states contributing troops to
these conflicts. When only the name of a country is given, this
indicates a conflict over government. When a conflict is over
territory, the name of the contested territory appears after the
country name in parentheses.
4
However, if we widen the focus and view extrasystemic, interstate
and internationalized intrastate conflicts as all having a significant
international dimension, their percentage is at a very high level
from 1946 and through the mid-1970s, when the last extrasystemic
conflict ended. The year with the highest proportion of this wider
form of internationalized conflicts was 1946, when nine of the 17
active conflicts (53%) were either extrasystemic, interstate or interna-
tionalized intrastate conflicts.
5
See below for information on the interstate conflict active in 2011:
Cambodia–Thailand (common border).
journal of PEACE RESEARCH 50(4)
South Sudanese). The fighting was intense, causing hun-
dreds of deaths.
Battle-related deaths and the most intense
conflicts in 2012
At six, the number of wars – i.e. conflicts causing 1,000
battle-related deaths6 or more in one calendar year – also
remained the same in 2012. This is a relatively low figure
seen over the entire post-1946 period (Gleditsch et al.,
2002) and compared to the peak year 1988, it is down
by as much as 60%, which fits well with the observed
long-term decline in battle deaths (Goldstein, 2011; Pin-
ker, 2011). The UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset,
spanning from 1989 to 2012, also demonstrates this
trend, showing a drop, albeit uneven, in the number of
fatalities in armed conflicts over the time period.7 How-
ever, while the overall trend is a decline, the number of
battle-related deaths increased in 2012. In total, UCDP
estimates that there were between 37,175 (low estimate)
and 60,260 (high estimate) battle-related deaths in 2012,
with a best estimate of 37,941 fatalities. This increase in
the face of a substantial decline in the number of armed
conflicts was by and large driven by the escalation of a
few wars, especially the Syrian war, which had by far the
highest number of battle-related deaths in 2012. It was
followed by Afghanistan, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen and
Sudan. Table III summarizes the total number of battle-
related deaths by region in 2012.
The conflict in Syria escalated dramatically during
2012, causing over 15,000 battle-related deaths during
the year. This is an exceptionally high figure for the
post-Cold War period where only four other armed con-
flicts have reached this level of intensity: Eritrea–Ethiopia
(common border, 1999–2000), Ethiopia (1989–90),
Ethiopia (Eritrea, 1990) and Iraq (Kuwait, 1991). The
conflict also grew more complex, as new rebel groups
appeared. The main opposition group continued to be
contained a number of factions. During the year a num-
ber of additional armed groups were formed and gained
strength. Some had a radical Sunni Islamist agenda,
6
See p. 520 for a definition of key concepts.
7
UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset v. 5-2013 at http://www.pcr.
uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_battle-related_deaths_dataset/.
The dataset includes three different fatality estimates – low, best
and high – based on the reliability of reports and the conflicting
number of deaths that can be reported for any violent event. All
of the figures presented in the text are based on the best estimate,
whereas all three estimates are recorded in Appendix 1. See p. 520
for more information on the different fatality estimates.
 Table I. Armed conflicts and conflict locations, 1989–2012
Level of conflict 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1989–2012a

Minor 30 35 39 40 35 35 33 33 32 28 26 27 28 26 26 25 28 29 31 33 30 27 31 26 92
War 13 15 13 12 10 11 8 8 7 12 13 10 9 6 5 7 5 5 4 5 6 4 6 6 49
All conflicts 43 50 52 52 45 46 41 41 39 40 39 37 37 32 31 32 33 34 35 38 36 31 37 32 141
All dyads 62 67 67 63 57 56 47 51 54 54 50 49 49 45 42 44 40 47 44 49 46 40 51 41 297
All locations 36 37 38 38 32 33 31 31 29 32 31 28 30 24 24 24 24 25 25 28 27 25 30 26 87
a
Conflicts recorded as war sometime in the 1989–2012 period are included in the totals as wars.

Table II. Armed conflicts by region, 1989–2012a

Region 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1989–2012

Europe 2 3 7 8 9 5 5 1 0 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 23
Middle East 4 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 15
Asia 16 21 15 19 15 16 16 18 19 16 15 17 14 12 15 14 17 16 14 16 15 12 13 10 42
Africa 12 13 17 14 11 15 10 12 14 17 16 15 16 15 11 10 7 10 12 13 12 10 15 13 47
Americas 9 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 14
All regions 43 50 52 52 45 46 41 41 39 40 39 37 37 32 31 32 33 34 35 38 36 31 37 32 141
a
For data back to 1946, see http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_prio_armed_conflict_dataset/.

511
512 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 50(4)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Extrasystemic Interstate Internationalized intrastate Intrastate

Figure 1. Number of armed conflicts by type, 1946–2012

Table III. Number of battle-related deaths in 2012, by region southern and eastern Afghanistan and provinces such
and type of estimate as Helmand, Kandahar, Nangarhar, Ghazni and Konar
Number of battle-related deaths bore the brunt of fighting. As in earlier years the Taliban
relied on road-side bombings, suicide bombings and
Region Low estimate Best estimate High estimate ambushes as their main tactics with a widespread use
of IEDs (improvised explosive devices). The number of
Europe 539 541 750
Middle East 18,511 18,816 34,754 insider attacks, so-called green-on-blue attacks, increased
Asia 11,597 11,815 14,759 substantially during the year and accounted for 15% of
Africa 6,098 6,337 9,379 total ISAF fatalities.
Americas 430 432 618 In Somalia the conflict between the government and
Total 37,175 37,941 60,260 Al-Shabaab escalated in 2012, causing over 2,600 battle-
related deaths, which is the highest number recorded in
this dyad. In fact, this level of violence in the Somali con-
calling not only for the overthrow of the Assad govern- flict has not been seen since 1991. The conflict contin-
ment but also for the establishment of an Islamist ued to see substantial international involvement. For
regime.8 One of the government’s strategies to counter one, the mandate of the AMISOM (African Union’s
the growing armed resistance was the use of local militia Mission in Somalia) forces present in the country since
groups, commonly known as the shabiha (ghosts). These late 2007 turned into peace enforcement during the year.
militias have been blamed for brutal repression of civi- This means that the countries sending troops are
lians in opposition areas, including massacres and tor- recorded as secondary warring parties in UCDP data.
ture. Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi acted as UN Furthermore, both Kenya and Ethiopia contributed
mediators during the year, but failed to make any sub- troops on the side of the government outside the scope
stantial progress. of AMISOM, later to be included in the African Union
In 2012, the conflict in Afghanistan increased in mission. During the year, Somali government troops and
intensity for the fourth consecutive year, causing almost their allies went on a strong offensive, making large ter-
7,400 battle-related deaths. With the NATO-led forces ritorial gains, with Al-Shabaab being forced to abandon
continuing to hand over security control to Afghan cities such as Baidoa and Kismayo.
forces, the year saw an increased number of fatalities Closely connected to the conflict in neighbouring
among Afghan soldiers and police. Most of the violence Afghanistan, the war in Pakistan continued at a high level
was concentrated around the Taliban strongholds in in 2012, causing more than 2,700 battle-related deaths.
Fighting continued along similar lines as in previous years,
8 with security forces launching military offensives against
Owing to a lack of precise reporting, it has been difficult to
distinguish many of these smaller groups in the coding process. militant strongholds while the main rebel group TTP
Subsequently, only one new group is included in UCDP data: (Tehrik-i-Taleban Pakistan: Taliban Movement of Paki-
Jabhat al-Nusra li al-Sham. stan) targeted security forces, pro-government tribal elders
Themnér & Wallensteen 513

and peace committees. In 2012 two further groups were New conflicts
active in the conflict against the Pakistani government: a
Three new conflicts erupted in 2012: India (Garoland),
splinter from TTP, TTP-TA (Tariq Afridi faction) and
Mali and South Sudan vs. Sudan (for the latter, see
Lashkar-e-Islam, an armed organization with a religious
above). In the Indian state of Megahalaya, a new, terri-
and tribal basis in Khyber agency in Pakistan’s Federally
torial conflict erupted in 2012. Formed in 2010, the
Administered Tribal Areas.9
rebel group GNLA (Garo National Liberation Army)
In Yemen the conflict between the government and
strives to create a separate autonomous state within the
AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) escalated
Union of India for the Garo people of Megahalaya.
dramatically in 2012, with the number of battle-related
While the group has clashed with government forces
deaths more than doubling to over 2,300. President Ali
since its inception, it was not until 2012 that fighting
Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled the country for over 30
escalated to cross the 25 battle-related deaths threshold
years, was replaced during the year and the new regime
for the first time.
launched a large-scale offensive in May with the inten-
Mali has been plagued by intermittent conflict since
tion of regaining control of the towns and regions that
1990, but all active groups have been motivated by a
had been lost to the rebels during 2011. Backed by local
desire to either establish an independent Azawad state
tribes, government troops during the following months
in the northern part of the country, or for this region
managed to push AQAP out of many urban areas. The
to gain some form of autonomy. In UCDP terminology,
rebels subsequently switched tactics, focusing more on
these episodes of fighting have taken place within a con-
high-profile assassinations, suicide bombings and hit-
flict over territory. In 2012, this territorial conflict
and-run attacks. Even with the change in regime, the
recurred (see below), but, simultaneously, a conflict over
USA continued to support the government against
government broke out for the first time, as the Islamist
AQAP and the number of drone attacks increased in
Tuareg rebel group Ansar Dine (Defenders of the Faith)
2012, killing several high-ranking AQAP members, but
emerged, demanding the introduction of sharia across
also civilians.
Mali. When the separatist MNLA (Mouvement national
The conflict in Sudan continued unabated in 2012,
de libération de l’Azawad: National Movement for the
remaining on the same high level of intensity as the pre-
Liberation of Azawad), calling for an independent Aza-
vious year. The rebel coalition SRF (Sudanese Revolu-
wad, launched its offensive in January, Ansar Dine
tionary Front), formed by JEM (Justice and Equality
joined in an uneasy tactical alliance and the two groups
Movement), SLM/A (Sudan Liberation Movement/
managed to quickly seize large parts of northern Mali.
Army), SLM/A-MM (Sudan Liberation Movement/
These developments bred widespread protests in the cap-
Army-Minni Minawi) and SPLM-North (Sudan Peo-
ital, Bamako, culminating in a coup on 22 March, and
ple’s Liberation Movement/Army-North) in late 2011,
roughly five weeks later Red Berets, supporting the
remained intact throughout 2012 and continued to chal-
ousted president, attempted a counter-coup, but failed.
lenge the regime in Khartoum. The fighting, which
Meanwhile in the north, the March coup led to the dis-
caused roughly 1,100 battle-related deaths, was concen-
integration of the army and the main northern towns fell
trated around Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan.
one by one to the rebels. Simultaneously, two other Isla-
Even though the conflict has a long history and is rooted
mist groups, with roots in Algeria, demonstrated a grow-
in internal problems, clear links to the interstate conflict
ing public presence in the north: AQIM (Al-Qaeda
between Sudan and South Sudan were recorded (see
Organization in the Islamic Maghreb) and MUJAO
above), with SRF receiving support from the regime in
(Mouvement pour le Tawhı̂d et du Jihad en Afrique
Juba and the Khartoum government aiding rebels in
de l’Ouest: Movement for Oneness and Jihad). Together
South Sudan.
with Ansar Dine these groups ousted MNLA from the
northern towns and began creating a de facto Islamic
state where sharia law was strictly enforced. The question
9 of a potential military intervention in northern Mali was
New information has revealed that Lashkar-e-Islam was already
active in fighting the Pakistani government in 2009–10. Tables I and hotly debated from April 2012 and through the rest
II, the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia (www.ucdp.uu.se/database), of the year. However, only on 20 December was UN
the UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset, the UCDP Dyadic Data- Security Council Resolution 2085 passed, allowing for
set and the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset have been the deployment of the Africa-led International Support
amended accordingly. Old versions of the data are also available at Mission in Mali (AFIMSA). It was planned to be
http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/.
514
operational by the autumn of 2013 and intended to help
the Malian army to reconquer the north.
Restarted conflicts
Three previously registered conflicts were restarted by
new actors: CAR, DRC and Mali (Azawad). CAR has
seen different rebel groups challenging the regime for
governmental power since 2001. In December 2012 a
new bout of fighting erupted when a rebel coalition
called Seleka took up arms against the government. The
group had immediate military successes, seizing several
important towns in the northern part of the country, and
eventually threatened the capital, Bangui. Under attack,
the regime received essential military support from neigh-
bouring Chad, which supplied over 100 troops. When the
year came to a close, the conflict was still ongoing.
Three years after the signing of the 23 March 2009
peace deal between the Congolese government and
CNDP (Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple,
National Congress for the Defence of the People), fight-
ing erupted once more in eastern DRC. The group that
emerged was called M23, and was mainly made up of
Tutsi defectors from the Congolese army with a history
in CNDP. With demands ranging from proper imple-
mentation of the accord from 2009 to the ousting of the
government, the group launched a lightning offensive
and had by July managed to take control over large parts
of the Rutshuru Territory in the North Kivu Province.
In late November the rebels seized the provincial capital
Goma. After the rebels agreed to withdraw from the
town, negotiations between the parties were held
between 9 and 21 December, but were inconclusive.
Already from the outset, there were speculations on
whether M23 received support from, or was led by,
Rwanda. While the latter denied any association, the
UN Group of Experts in November submitted its final
report, providing evidence for the involvement of both
Rwanda and Uganda in the conflict (United Nations,
2012).
As described above, Mali has seen intermittent fight-
ing over the status of the Azawad region since 1990. The
outbreak of fighting in 2012 was connected to both
regional developments and country-specific factors. The
Tuareg population of northern Mali had had long-
standing relations with former Libyan President Muam-
mar Gadaffi, with parts of the population residing in
Libya for many years, many of them receiving combat
training and experience in either the Libyan army or the
Gadaffi-sponsored Islamic Legion. When Gadaffi was
ousted in 2011, large numbers of well-armed and battle-
journal of PEACE RESEARCH 50(4)
hardened Tuaregs returned to Mali, where they entered
an already volatile situation. Northern Mali, on the eve
of the 2012 Tuareg rebellion, was characterized by a lack
of economic development, limited presence of administra-
tive structures and a general resentment against the central
government – many of the same grievances that had bred
earlier Tuareg uprisings. Subsequently, many of the retur-
nees, together with remnants of previous rebellions and a
Tuareg political organization, MNA (Mouvement
national de l’Azawad: National Movement of Azawad),
in October 2011 formed MNLA.10
One conflict was restarted by a previously registered
actor: Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh). In 2012
skirmishes and sniper fire between border-based troops
resulted in at least 25 deaths. The conflict continued
to simmer throughout the year as high-level diplomats
travelled through the region, encouraging the parties to
engage in talks. While talks did take place between
Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in June, dis-
cussions between the two country’s foreign ministers
were suspended in September following continued
sporadic fighting.
Conflicts no longer active
Eleven conflicts registered for 2011 were no longer active
in 2012: Cambodia vs. Thailand (common border),
Iran, Ivory Coast, Libya, Mauritania, Myanmar (Karen),
Myanmar (Shan), Senegal (Casamance), Sudan (Abyei),
Tajikistan and Uganda. In the interstate conflict between
Cambodia and Thailand over their common border, the
fighting that flared in two brief bouts in 2011 ended in
early May of that year, and no direct violence was reported
between Thai and Cambodian forces in 2012. The two
sides used the Joint Working Group and Joint Boundary
Commission to engage in negotiations throughout the
year, and they are scheduled to argue their cases before the
International Court of Justice in 2013.
In Iran, a large-scale government offensive against the
Kurdish rebel group PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kur-
distan) between July and September 2011 appeared to
have weakened the latter. The rebels were reported to
have been pushed back across the border into their Iraq
bases, and only one clash was reported in 2012, causing
four fatalities.
The conflict fought between supporters of then-
president Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Outtara in Ivory
Coast in the wake of the October 2010 elections ended
10
See the description of the Mali government conflict above for more
information on subsequent events in 2012.
Themnér & Wallensteen
when the former was captured and in May, the latter was
installed as president. While the country continued to
suffer from insecurity in 2012, no clear group emerged
to challenge the new regime during the year.
In Libya, the armed conflict over government power
fought in 2011 was not active in 2012. While pro-
Gadaffi forces initially resisted the new regime when the
NTC (National Transitional Council) gained control
over Tripoli, this came to an end in October when Gad-
dafi himself was found and fatally shot.
The conflict between the Mauritanian government
and AQIM saw very little fighting in 2012. This was
probably due to the fact that AQIM was active else-
where, as the movement, together with Ansar Dine and
MUJAO, set up a de facto Islamic state in the northern
part of Mali during the year (see above).
In 2012, for the first time since 2004, the conflict
over the Karen region in Myanmar did not cross the
25-fatality threshold for inclusion. At the end of 2011
and in early 2012 major advances were made towards
ending the Karen conflict, with the DKBA 5 (Demo-
cratic Kayin Buddhist Army Brigade 5) agreeing to a
ceasefire on 6 November 2011 and the KNU (Karen
National Union) and the government following suit on
12 January 2012. The KNU subsequently held negotia-
tions with the government and agreed to take steps to
strengthen the ceasefire agreement.
As part of the civilian-led Myanmar government’s
peace effort, there were also several rounds of talks
between the government and rebels in the Shan region
during the same period. The RCSS (Restoration Council
of Shan States, also known as SSA-south) signed a cease-
fire on 2 December 2011 and in late January 2012 SSPP
(Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North) also
agreed to a truce. These were largely respected through-
out 2012, and fighting in the conflict subsequently did
not cross the 25 battle-related deaths threshold.
The conflict between the Senegalese government and
MFDC (Mouvement des forces démocratiques de Casa-
mançe: Movement of the Democratic Forces of the
Casamance) over the status of the Casamance region also
de-escalated in 2012. After it was active for the first time
in seven years in 2011, 2012 saw a drop in intensity,
albeit not until after the end of March. In April Macky
Sall was elected new Senegalese president, stating that
solving the Casamance conflict was one of the first
national priorities and that he was willing to work with
neighbouring Gambia and Guinea-Bissau in the search for
lasting peace. Subsequently, in October a government
delegation began peace negotiations with representatives
of the Casamance separatist rebel movement in Rome.
515
After two successive years of low-intensity conflict, no
fighting was recorded between the Tajik government and
IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) in 2012. The
government nevertheless continued to target the Isla-
mists, albeit in a different arena: the courtrooms. A large
number of IMU members arrested in previous years were
sentenced to prison on charges ranging from establishing
an unlawful armed group to attempting to overthrow the
government.
In the conflict between the Ugandan government and
its allies and the rebel groups LRA (Lord’s Resistance
Army) and ADF (Allied Democratic Forces), the fighting
de-escalated in 2012 and did not cross the 25 battle-
related deaths threshold. Both rebel groups are based
outside Uganda, and Kampala is dependent on the assis-
tance of neighbouring governments to be able to con-
front them. ADF saw an initial onslaught by DRC
forces during the first months of the year, but when the
M23 rebellion broke out (see above), their focus shifted
and fighting died down. As for LRA, the group has split
up into smaller units, moving over a large area and avoid-
ing direct contact with enemy forces, making them dif-
ficult to track down.
In 2011, prior to the independence of South Sudan, a
conflict was fought between the Sudanese government
and the Republic of South Sudan over the Abyei area.
On 9 July 2011 South Sudan became an independent
state and since this meant that the non-state actor in the
conflict – the Republic of South Sudan – ceased to exist,
the conflict was recorded as terminated. The Abyei area
is still contested by Khartoum and Juba, but now as an
interstate issue.
Peace agreements in 2012
During the year four peace agreements were concluded,
one in CAR, one in the Philippines, one in South Sudan
and one between South Sudan and Sudan.
Before Seleka launched its armed struggle in CAR in
late 2012, there were hopes that the low-intensity con-
flict active intermittently in the country since 2001 had
finally come to an end. This was tied to the fact that
CPJP (Convention des patriotes pour la justice et la paix:
Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace), as the last
rebel group, had signed a peace agreement, ‘L’accord de
Paix Global de Libreville’ on 25 August. As part of the
accord, the rebel group agreed to join the DDR (Disar-
mament, Demobilisation and Reintegration) program
and to transform into a political party. However, a fac-
tion of CPJP rejected the agreement and during the
516
autumn merged with other groups to create Seleka (for
more information on the Seleka conflict, see above).
In the Philippines, negotiations between the govern-
ment and rebel group MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation
Front) over the status of the Mindanao territory had
been held in fits and starts over many years until a peace
agreement was signed in October 2012. The accord –
termed the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro –
provided for an autonomous region in Mindanao to be
named Bangsamoro and MILF agreed to drop its
demand for an independent state. Furthermore, a cease-
fire that had been in place since 2009 was reaffirmed,
and it was stated that the parties should continue to work
towards a comprehensive peace agreement. However,
not all actors were in favour of the accord. A splinter
group from MILF called BIFM (Bangsamoro Islamic
Freedom Movement) rejected the peace agreement and
clashed with the government on several occasions. Also
fighting between the government forces and ASG (Abu
Sayyaf Group) continued unabated in 2012.
South Sudan has seen armed conflict since its founda-
tion as a state. However, in February 2012 the govern-
ment of the newly independent country and one of the
rebel groups fighting it, SSDM (South Sudan Demo-
cratic Movement/Army), signed a peace agreement,
which stipulated that the rebels should be represented
in the national government as well as at the state level,
presumably in Jonglei and Upper Nile, where they had
previously been based. Furthermore, the SSDM fighters
were to be integrated into the government forces. During
the year this process of integration was initiated and
there was no further fighting reported between the two
parties. However, the conflict between the Juba regime
and SSLM/A (South Sudan Liberation Movement/
Army) continued unabated.
The one interstate conflict recorded for 2012 (South
Sudan vs. Sudan) also saw a peace agreement. On 27
September 2012 the presidents of Sudan and South
Sudan signed an accord in Addis Ababa, agreeing on a
demilitarized zone and principles of border demarcation,
but they did not manage to reach a deal on the status of
Abyei, a region claimed by both countries. The agree-
ment also stipulated for South Sudan to recommence its
oil export, which goes through Sudan. Oil deliveries had
been cancelled since the beginning of the year due to a
dispute with Khartoum on how much Juba should pay
for using oil pipelines on Sudanese territory. The deci-
sion was made by the South Sudanese after Khartoum
had confiscated a large amount of oil in December
2011. Despite the signing of the accord, hostilities con-
tinued, with Sudan bombing areas of South Sudan.
journal of PEACE RESEARCH 50(4)
While four agreements is a low number compared to
the 1990s and early 2000s11 it is an increase from 2009,
when only one or two were concluded each year. Three
of the agreements signed in 2012 point to the impor-
tance of taking into account the multiparty nature of
many conflicts, which may have implications for the
prospects for a durable peace (Nilsson, 2008). In two
accords signed in intrastate conflicts, splinter groups
rejected the agreement and continued fighting (in CAR
the CPJP faction joined Seleka and in the Philippines
BIFM broke with MILF in 2011, rejecting the negotia-
tion process). In the third intrastate case (South Sudan),
only one of the two rebel groups was included in the pro-
cess that eventually brought about the signing of an
accord, whereas SSLM continued fighting. The data also
point to the importance of maintaining the momentum
of peace processes even after the signing of an accord. We
have, for instance, registered a partial failure in one ear-
lier agreement, in DRC (see above), which was directly
linked to the recurrence of fighting in 2012.
Replication data
The complete datasets (UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict
Dataset, UCDP Dyadic Dataset and UCDP Battle-
Related Deaths Dataset) updated to 2012 are found at
http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/. Older ver-
sions of these datasets can also be found at http://www.
pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ (all datasets) and www.
prio.no/cscw/armedconflict (the UCDP/PRIO Armed
Conflict Dataset). The tables and figures in this article
were created directly from the Excel sheet at http://
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_prio_armed_
conflict_dataset/. Detailed descriptions of the individual
conflicts are found in the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia,
at www.ucdp.uu.se/database. Replication data for this arti-
cle can be found both at http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/
ucdp/datasets/replication_datasets/ and www.prio.no/jpr/
datasets.
Acknowledgements
Numerous colleagues in Uppsala have contributed to the
data collection, notably Marie Allansson, Johan Brosché,
Gökhan Ciflikli, Mihai Croicu, Helena Grusell, Stina
Högbladh, Emma Elfversson, Marcus Nilsson, Johanna
Ohlsson, Therése Pettersson, Christopher Shay, Jacob
Sommer and Samuel Taub.
11
UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset v. 2, 1975–2011, at http://www.
pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_peace_agreement_dataset/.
Themnér & Wallensteen
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Appendix 1. Armed conflicts active in 2012
This list includes all conflicts that exceeded the mini-
mum threshold of 25 battle-related deaths in 2012 and
fulfilled the other criteria for inclusion.1 The column
Year shows the latest range of years in which the conflict
has been active without interruption. The start year is
found in parenthesis in the Incompatibility column,
which indicates when the armed conflict reached 25
battle-related deaths for the first time. If a conflict has
been inactive for more than ten years or if there has
been a complete change in the opposition side, the start
year refers to the onset of the latest phase of the conflict.
For more complete information on the conflict and
dyad history, see (a) the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict
Dataset and the UCDP Dyadic Dataset at http://www.
pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ and (b) the Uppsala
Conflict Data Program’s online conflict encyclopedia
at http://www.ucdp.uu.se/database. The column Inten-
sity in 2012 displays the aggregated conflict intensity in
terms of the number of battle-related deaths. Thus, if
more than one dyad is active in the conflict, the Intensity
column records their aggregated intensity. Three fatality
estimates are given in the table: low, best and high.2
1
See p. 520 for further information regarding definitions.
2
See p. 520 for a definition of battle-related deaths as well as for fur-
ther information regarding the three fatality estimates.
 Intensity in 2012

518
Location Incompatibility Opposition organization(s) in 2012 Year Low Best High

EUROPE
Azerbaijan Territory Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh3 2012 25 25 27
(Nagorno-Karabakh) (2005)
Russia Territory Forces of the Caucasus Emirate 2007–12 514 516 723
(Caucasus Emirate) (2007)
MIDDLE EAST
Iraq Government (2004) ISI (Dawlat al-’Iraq al-Islamiyya: Islamic State in Iraq) 2004–12 487 565 598
Israel Territory (Palestine) (1949) Hamas (Harakat al-Muqawarna al-Islamiyya: Islamic Resistance 2000–12 64 64 85
Movement), PIJ (Al-Jihad al-Islami fi Filastin: Palestinian Islamic Jihad)
Syria Government (2011) FSA (Free Syrian Army), Jabhat al-Nusra li al-Sham (Support Front for the 2011–12 14830 15055 30805
People of Syria)
Turkey Territory (Kurdistan) (1984) PKK (Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan: Kurdistan Workers’ Party) 1984–2012 811 811 861
Yemen Government4 (2009) AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) 2009–12 2319 2321 2405
ASIA
Afghanistan Government5 (1978) Taleban 2003–12 7271 7442 8501
India Territory (Garoland) (2012) GNLA (Garo National Liberation Army) 2012 23 27 27
Territory (Kashmir) (1989) Kashmir insurgents6 1989–2012 140 141 144
Government (1990) CPI-Maoist (Communist Party of India-Maoist) 1996–2012 233 242 275
Myanmar Territory (Kachin) (2011) KIO (Kachin Independence Organization) 2011–12 676 702 2198
Pakistan Territory (Baluchistan) (2004) BLA (Baluchistan Liberation Army), BRA (Baluchistan Republican Army), 2011–12 128 128 374
BLF (Baluch Liberation Front)
Government (2008) TTP (Tehrik-i-Taleban Pakistan: Movement of the Taliban in 2007–12 2705 2705 2775
Pakistan),TTP-TA
(Tehrik-i-Taleban Pakistan-Tariq Afridi faction), Lashkar-e-Islam
(Army of Islam)
Philippines Territory (Mindanao) (1972) ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group), BIFM (Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement) 1993–2012 108 114 139
Government (1969) CPP (Communist Party of the Philippines) 1999–2012 181 182 193
Thailand Territory (Patani) (2003) Patani insurgents7 2003–12 132 132 133
AFRICA
Algeria Government (1992) AQIM (al-Qaeda Organization 1991–2012 244 250 267
in the Islamic Maghreb),8
MUJAO (Mouvement pour le Tawhı̂d et du Jihad en Afrique de l’Ouest,
Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa)
Central African Government9(2009) Seleka (Alliance)10 2009–12 44 44 44
Republic
DR Congo Government (2012) M23 (Mouvement du 23-Mars: March 23 Movement)11 2012 611 660 749
Ethiopia Territory (Ogaden) ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) 1998–2012 25 25 406
(1993)
(continued)
 Appendix 1. (continued)

Intensity in 2012

Location Incompatibility Opposition organization(s) in 2012 Year Low Best High

Ethiopia Territory (Oromiya) (1977) OLF (Oromo Liberation Front) 1998–2012 25 25 162
Mali Territory (Azawad) MNLA (Mouvement national de libération de l’Azawad: National 2012 126 131 309
(2012) Movement for the Liberation of Azawad)
Government (2012) Ansar Dine (Defenders of the Faith), Military faction (Red Berets) 2012 83 87 270
Nigeria Government (2009) Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (Group Committed to 2012 812 812 1156
Propagating the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad)12
Rwanda Government13 (1996) FDLR (Forces democratiques de libération du Rwanda: Democratic 2009–12 62 62 78
Liberation Forces of Rwanda)
Somalia Government14 (2006) Al-Shabaab (The Youth) 2006–12 2445 2620 2919
South Sudan Government (2011) SSLM/A (South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army) 2011–12 137 137 137
South Sudan, Sudan Territory (common 2012 365 365 1097
border) (2012)
Sudan Government (1983) SRF (Sudanese Revolutionary Army)15 1983–2012 1119 1119 1785
AMERICAS
Colombia Government (1964) FARC (Fuerzas armadas revolucionarias colombianas: Revolutionary 1964–2012 211 211 310
Armed Forces of Colombia)
USA Government16 (2001) Al-Qaeda (The Base) 2004–12 219 221 308
Total number of battle-related deaths in 2012 37175 37941 60260
3
The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh was supported by troops from Armenia.
4
The government was supported by troops from the USA.
5
Supported by the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) that in 2012 included troops from: Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Lux-
embourg, Malaysia, Macedonia, FYR, Mongolia, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden,
Tonga, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and United States of America.
6
A large number of groups have been active. Some of the larger groups in 2012 were Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen.
7
For example, BRN-C (Barisan Nasional Revolusi-Coordinate), PULO (Patani United Liberation Organisation) and GMIP (Gerekan Mujahideen Islam Pattani).
8
Until January 2007, AQIM was known as GSPC (al-Jama’ah al-Salafiyah lil-Da’wah wa’l-Qital: Groupe Salafiste pour la prédication et le combat: Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat).
9
The government was supported by troops from Chad.
10
Seleka is a coalition consisting of CPJP (Convention des patriotes pour la justice et la paix: Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace), UFDR (Union des forces démocratiques pour le
rassemblement: Union of Democratic Forces for Unity) and CPSK (Convention Patriotique pour le Salut du Kodro: Patriotic Convention for Saving the Country), formed in 2012.
11
M23 was supported by troops from Rwanda and Uganda.
12
Previously coded as Boko Haram, which is the name commonly used in news media. However, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad is the group’s official name.
13
The government was supported by troops from DRC.
14
Supported by troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sierra Leone and Uganda.
15
SRF is a coalition consisting of SPLM/A-North (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-North), SLM/A (Sudan Liberation Movement/Army), SLM/A-MM (Sudan Liberation Move-
ment/Army-Minni Minawi) and JEM (Justice and Equality Movement), formed in November 2011.
16
In 2012, the USA was supported by France.

519
520
Definitions
An armed conflict17 is defined by the Uppsala Con-
flict Data Program (UCDP) as a contested incompat-
ibility that concerns government or territory or both,
where the use of armed force between two parties
results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.
Of these two parties, at least one has to be the gov-
ernment of a state.
The incompatibility is the stated (in writing or verb-
ally) generally incompatible positions. A more detailed
definition can be found on UCDP’s webpage, at
http://www.ucdp.uu.se.
The conflicts are divided according to type of conflict:18
 Interstate armed conflict occurs between two or more
states.
 Internationalized intrastate armed conflict occurs
between the government of a state and internal
opposition groups, with intervention from other
states in the form of troops.
Intrastate armed conflict occurs between the govern-
ment of a state and internal opposition groups.
The conflicts are also divided according to their inten-
sity into two categories:19
 Minor armed conflicts: at least 25 battle-related deaths
in a year but fewer than 1,000.
 War: at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in a year.
Battle-related deaths are those fatalities that can be
related to combat in a conflict dyad. Typically, battle-
related deaths occur in what can be described as ‘normal’
warfare involving the armed forces of the warring parties.
This includes traditional battlefield fighting, guerrilla
activities (e.g. hit-and-run attacks/ambushes) and all
kinds of bombardments of military units, cities and
17
UCDP also codes two other categories of organized violence:
non-state conflict and one-sided violence. Datasets on these can
be downloaded from http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/
ucdp_non-state_conflict_dataset_/ and http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/
ucdp/datasets/ucdp_one-sided_violence_dataset/, respectively. Further-
more, narratives on the cases are available at www.ucdp.uu.se/database.
18
UCDP has also coded a fourth type, extrasystemic armed conflict,
a conflict that occurs between a state and a non-state group outside its
own territory. These conflicts are by definition territorial. The last
such conflict ended in 1974, so this category is not applicable in
Appendix 1.
19
In previous years UCDP has only presented the conflict intensity
by category in the appendix. This year, for the first time, the
information underlying the intensity category coding – the
estimates of the number of battle-related deaths – is presented.
journal of PEACE RESEARCH 50(4)
villages, etc. The targets are usually the military itself and
its installations, or state institutions and state representa-
tives, but there is often substantial collateral damage in
the form of civilians killed in crossfire, indiscriminate
bombings, etc. All deaths – military as well as civilian –
incurred in such situations are counted as battle-related
deaths.
UCDP codes three different fatality estimates – low,
best and high – based on the reliability of reports and the
conflicting number of deaths that can be reported for any
violent event.
 Low estimate: The UCDP Low estimate consists of
the aggregated low estimates for all battle-related
incidents during a year. If different reports provide
different estimates and a higher estimate is consid-
ered more reliable, the low estimate is also reported
if deemed reasonable.
 Best estimate: The UCDP Best estimate consist of the
aggregated most reliable numbers for all battle-
related incidents during a year. If different reports
provide different estimates, an examination is made
as to what source is most reliable. If no such distinc-
tion can be made, UCDP as a rule includes the lower
figure given.
 High estimate: The UCDP High estimate consists of
the aggregated high estimates for all battle-related
incidents during a year. If different reports provide
different estimates and a lower estimate is considered
more or equally reliable, the high estimate is also
reported if deemed reasonable. If there are incidents
when there is some uncertainty about which parties
have been involved, these are also included in the
high estimate.
It is the best estimate of battle-related deaths that
determines both whether or not a dyad will be included
in the UCDP data (i.e. the best estimate needs to be 25
or higher) and whether the intensity is recorded as minor
or war.
Appendix 2. Unclear cases in 2012
Cases that have been completely rejected on the
grounds that they definitely do not meet the criteria
of armed conflict are not included in the list below. For
the conflicts listed here, the available information suggests
the possibility of the cases meeting the criteria of armed
conflicts, but there is insufficient information concerning
at least one of the three components of the definition: (a)
the number of deaths, (b) the identity or level of organi-
zation of a party or (c) the type of incompatibility. For
Themnér & Wallensteen 521

unclear cases for the entire 1946–2012 period, see http:// LOTTA THEMNÉR (previously Harbom), b. 1975, MA in
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/. The unclear peace and conflict research (Uppsala University, 2002);
aspect may concern an entire conflict or a dyad in a con- project leader, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Department
flict that is included in Appendix 1. of Peace and Conflict Research; articles on conflict data
published in the Journal of Peace Research and SIPRI Yearbook
since 2005; editor of States in Armed Conflict since 2004.
Location/
Government Opposition organization Unclear aspect PETER WALLENSTEEN, b. 1945, PhD (Uppsala
University, 1973); Senior Professor of Peace and Conflict
China ETIM (East Turkestan Identity of Research, Uppsala University since 2012, previously Dag
Islamic Movement) organization, Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research
Number of (1985–2012) and Richard G Starmann Sr Research Professor
deaths of Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame (2006– ); director
DR UPCP (Union des Number of deaths of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the
Congo patriotes Congolais Special Program on the International Targeted Sanctions
pour la paix: Union (SPITS); author of Understanding Conflict Resolution: War,
of Congolese Peace and the Global System, 3rd updated edition (Sage, 2012)
Patriots for Peace) and Peace Research: Theory and Practice (Routledge, 2011)
Libya TFSL (Toubou Front for Incompatibility where Chapter 9 gives the history of UCDP; co-author (with
the Salvation of
Isak Svensson) of The Go-Between: Jan Eliasson and the Styles of
Libya)
Mediation (US Institute of Peace Press, 2010).