CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM) This distribution (the beta distribution) has a minimum and maximum value, Earliest Start Time Rule: unlike the normal distribution, which has an infinite range of values. It also is The ES time for an activity leaving a particular node is the largest of the EF times capable of assuming a wide variety of shapes, again unlike the normal, which is for all activities entering the node always symmetrical about its most likely value. Latest Finish Time Rule: Estimate of Expected Activity Time: The LF time for an activity entering a particular node is the smallest of the LS 𝒂 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒃 times for all activities leaving that node. 𝒕= 𝟔 Estimating the Standard Deviation of an Activity Time Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without affecting the 𝒃−𝒂 completion date for the overall project. 𝑺𝑫 = 𝟔 The critical path activities are those with zero slack. SITUATION. For the following PERT network given below (time duration is in SITUATION. Repeating floor-by-floor structural construction activities of weeks): Diaphragm-Shear Wall Building are shown below. Most Optimistic Pessimistic Immediate Duration Activity Likely Activity Time Time Predecessor (Weeks) Time A -- 7 1–2 1 1 7 B -- 9 1–3 1 4 7 C A 12 1–4 2 2 8 D A, B 8 2–5 1 1 1 E D 9 3–5 2 5 14 F C, E 6 4–6 2 5 8 G E 5 5–6 3 6 15 1. Which of the following gives the duration of the critical path? 3. Determine the expected project length. A. 35 weeks C. 32 weeks A. 7 weeks C. 13 weeks B. 40 weeks D. 43 weeks B. 17 weeks D. 27 weeks 2. What is the longest delay that the activity C can have without causing delay 4. Determine the Standard deviation of Project Length. in the overall structural floor construction? A. 3.8 weeks C. 6.78 weeks A. 8 weeks C. 5 weeks B. 3 weeks D. 4 weeks B. 7 weeks D. 6 weeks 5. Determine the probability that the project will be completed on schedule if the scheduled completion time is 20 weeks. WAYS OF REDUCING PROJECT DURATION A. 94.873% C. 100% 1. A strategic analysis B. 84.134% D. 74.431% Here the analyst asks: “Does this project have to be done the way it is currently diagrammed?” In particular, “Do all of the activities on the critical path have to be 6. [NOV 2021] Of all paths through the network, the critical path has the …. done in the specified order?” A. maximum actual time C. minimum actual time 2. A tactical approach B. minimum expected time D. maximum expected time In this approach the analyst assumes that the current diagram is appropriate and 7. [NOV 2021] Which of the following satisfy the requirements for estimating works at reducing the time of certain activities on the critical path by devoting expected activity times in a PERT network? more resources to them I. Make use of three estimates PROGRAM EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT) II. Puts the greatest weight on the most likely time estimate VARIABILITY IN ACTIVITY TIMES III. Is motivated by the beta distribution A. Optimistic time A. III only C. II only (Denoted by a): the minimum time. Everything has to go perfectly to achieve B. I only D. All of the above this time. 8. [NOV 2021] Which of the following is the calculation of the probability that the critical path will be completed by the time T? B. Most probable time I. Assumes that the activity times are statistically independent (Denoted by m): the most likely time. The time required under normal II. Assumes that the total time of the critical path has approximately circumstances. beta distribution III. Requires knowledge of the standard deviation for all activities in C. Pessimistic time the network. (Denoted by b): the maximum time. One version of Murphy’s Law is that if A. III only C. II only something can go wrong, it will. The pessimistic time is the time required when B. All of the above D. I only Murphy’s Law is in effect 9. The earliest start time (ES) for an activity leaving node C (in the AOA ESTIMATING THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY TIME: approach) The procedure for estimating the expected value of the activity times was A. is the Max of the earliest finish times for all activities entering node C motivated by the assumption that the activity time was a random variable with a B. equals the earliest finish times for the same activity minus its expected particular probability distribution. activity time C. depends on all paths leading from the start through node C Sample Beta Distribution: (a = 4, m = 7, b = 16) D. all of the above 10. The latest finish time (LF) for an activity entering node H (in the AOA approach) A. equals the Max of the latest start times for all activities leaving node H B. depends on the latest finish time for the project C. equals the latest start time minus the activity time for the same activity D. none of the above 11. The slack for activity G A. equals LF for G – LS for G B. equals EF for G – ES for G C. equals LS for G – ES for G D. none of the above